Only the game is simulated
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 12, 2010 
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I’m heading down to the field now to watch today’s sim game.
It looks like Dustin Moseley will be the “starter.” He’s getting loose right now, while Francisco Cervelli, Austin Kearns, Greg Golson and Ramiro Pena stand around the cage. There’s a screen behind the mound, and Dave Eiland is standing behind it. The cage is pulled back so that it’s not directly around the hitter. It’s more of a protective barrier for the extra hitters and coaches.
There are no fielders. I assume, like in a normal sim game, one of the coaches will simply determine whether a batted ball would have been a hit or an out.
UPDATE, 12:11 p.m.: Moseley faced all four hitters then sat down. Now Mitre is pitching. I’m guessing that was considered one inning. This is exactly like spring training.
Rob Thomson just walked by and talked about the weather. Dave Robertson is watching from the Yankees dugout. Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain and Boone Logan are standing around in the outfield. Joe Girardi is watching from behind the cage.
Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 11:15 am
Sabathia is a Bentley and Liriano is an Audi?
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If so then what are Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Josh Johnson and Hernandez – The Concord?….The Space Shuttle?…F14 TomCat?
The Yankees may be one of the few teams that could sell more tickets to simulated games than most teams can for real ones.
Rich -
I think the Yankees sell more tickets to ST games than the Rays do to season games.
Everyone wants to see the best, even if it don’t count.
I see a win in Moseley’s future here.
# Cashmoney October 12th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
My hero CR!
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That’s right, baby!!
Must be an off day if Sabathia versus Liriano is actually being discussed. No Yankees fan argues that Liriano is either better or more valuable – in terms of contract – than Sabathia.
Sabathia is an American Hero! The man exemplifies leadership and generosity. He’s everything that Id look for in a man.
“I believe advanced metrics create an extremely strong case that Liriano had a better and more valuable year than Sabathia despite the difference in innings.”
Okay, fair enough. Explain to me narratively why Liriano was more valuable than Sabathia.
Please don’t just cite stats and say “see”.
I don’t belief in the self-evidence of stats. A successful baseball campaign has more to do with +/- .15 baserunners per IP.
So make your case that Liriano was more valuable a player than Sabathia using ideas and arguments rather than numbers and assumptions.
I compare Timmy Bong hit to a F22 raptor , stealth and under the radar , with capabilities of long range tactical deployments as well as possessing dog fighting maneuverabilities.
Cashman needs to go..
I have no idea that was just my small contribution to the most ridiculous argument to ever take place on LoHud.
“He’s everything that Id look for in a man.”
Not that there’s anything wrong with that…
Also, good points made in the last thread about the Yankees budget vs the budget of other teams.
Too many people say things like, “No other team can spend the money the Yankees do.” When what they should be saying is, “No other team is willing to spend the money the Yankees do.”
CR9 -
Time to take your meds, you’re starting to stray a little, lol.
“The Yanks didn’t sign Santana because he would cost them money AND prospects. If it was just money, he’d be having surgery on our dime this year.”
My point exactly.
Cashman chose Hughes and the money over Santana.
Just like most GMs would choose Liriano and the money over CC.
It’s not a knock on CC. It’s just I think Liriano and, say, Carl Crawford plus, would win more games than CC alone.
But I’ve been said to be delusional, so who knows?
Just posting on the comments made about CC and Liriano. SJ took the comments wrong and the argument has become silly. When the comment was made that most every GM would take Liriano the comment was made stating that if next year you could have Liriano at 5 mil and CC at 23 mil who would you take? In this case, I would agree that most GM’s take Liriano. Not sure why SJ doesn’t see that even though we all agree that if money were not a factor we would all take CC.
That being said, why does this board focus on next year while we are in the playoffs? Why does this board focus on players to replace our players for next year? Why not focus on the matchups for the upcoming series and then look at our own strengths and weaknesses?
For example, who would rather see Burnett over Nova?
“I compare Timmy Bong hit to a F22 raptor , stealth and under the radar , with capabilities of long range tactical deployments as well as possessing dog fighting maneuverabilities.”
Wouldn’t a VW Minibus be most appropriate?
“In 2009, major league teams managed to earn their highest profits ever as revenues increased by $79 million for a total of $6.6 billion. ”
Increased revenue does not mean higher profits. What happed to expenses?
Wave your Hat is spot on in his post at 12:22
“The Yankees may be one of the few teams that could sell more tickets to simulated games than most teams can for real ones.”
To see Moseley face Cervelli, Kearns, Golson and Pena?
I guess Moseley could “simulate” Hughes, and those four could “simulate” Jorge, Gardner, Swisher and ARod, and I could “simulate” buying a ticket…
Shame Spencer -
You are correct. The Yankees are not the richest team in MLB, but, are willing to re-invest their earnings to put the best product on the field.
Fans of other clubs shouldn’t hate the Yankees, but, rather their teams owners for taking the profits out, and not using that money to better the team. A prime example is the Marlins, but they are not alone.
Wouldn’t a VW Minibus be most appropriate?
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Silly Stuckey, Timmy operates better in high altitudes.
Big AL – LOL! Im in one of those moods today where all I want to do is praise the greatness of the Yankees.
“To see Moseley face Cervelli, Kearns, Golson and Pena?”
As Seinfeld once said: “We root for cloth.”
Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
To see Moseley face Cervelli, Kearns, Golson and Pena?
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I would go to a simulated game if Cano was playing!!!
BryanHoch The scene at Yankee Stadium. That’s Dustin Moseley working to Ramiro Pena.
http://yfrog.com/9gbtdlj
“The Yankees are not the richest team in MLB, but, are willing to re-invest their earnings to put the best product on the field.
Fans of other clubs shouldn’t hate the Yankees, but, rather their teams owners for taking the profits out, and not using that money to better the team. A prime example is the Marlins, but they are not alone.”
I said exactly the same thing just the other day. Using NESV and John Henry as an example, they have far more money than the Yankees. Instead of Henry and red sox fans whining about being a mid-market team with a $170 million payroll and plunging $500 million into Liverpool, maybe he should be more concerned with putting a better product on the field.
Has anyone else noticed that Rays’ ace pitcher David Price has exceeded what would be a normal innings limit for a young pitcher? Last year (his first in MLB), he pitched 128 innings. This season, he pitched 208 innings in the regular season and (so far) 6-2/3 innings in the postseason. His postseason innings total will increase as he will be the starting pitcher tonight. Its probable that he will log 230-240 innings this season (regular season and postseason).
I have a feeling that David Price won’t be as effective if the Rays make it to the ALCS. Also, his effectiveness next year may be limited by such a large workload this season.
“It’s not a knock on CC. It’s just I think Liriano and, say, Carl Crawford plus, would win more games than CC alone.”
Thing is – the Yanks depth gives them the luxury of keeping one eye on on October at all times.
Would Crawford/Liriano be an advantage in the regular season? Maybe, though Crawford is a dubious choice to me given the Gardner factor. I might ‘slash’ Liriano with another pitcher.
But that said, were you to offer me Liriano/Crawford vs. Sabathia during 7 to 19 games in October, there is no question in my mind.
CR9 -
I think a true Yankees wants to praise his team every day, but, it appears some fans can’t accept victory, they must always find fault.
Me. I’m old fashioned, when I love someone, or someting, I enjoy looking for the positives, and look past any negatives.
I think the premise of the argument from the start was involving cost and talent. Still, I have a hard time making blanket statements about organizations based on the fact that “they don’t have Yankee money to spend” because thats basically what everyone on here is talking about.
What everyone is saying is CC is the better pitcher but that these other (apparently impoverished) teams can’t spend that kind of cash to get what they need. So yes, with Liriano and say, Crawford, one might imagine that would be more valuable than CC. But that value is only being evaluated based on the fact that we’re all assuming other teams CANT spend the money we do. Which they absolutely can. They just don’t. I’m calling bunk on the whole argument.
Everyone have a great day.
For example, who would rather see Burnett over Nova?
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I believe Burnett contract size and his performances in the playoff LY has something to do with it.
Shame Spencer October 12th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
Also, good points made in the last thread about the Yankees budget vs the budget of other teams. Too many people say things like, “No other team can spend the money the Yankees do.” When what they should be saying is, “No other team is willing to spend the money the Yankees do.”
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That is so true. A good way to evaluate what teams put back in to the effort is by comparing revenues to operating income, (a measure of profit). The Marlins had $144 million in revenues and lead the league in operating income with $46.1 million. The Yankees had $441 million in revenues and $24.9 in operating income.
As an example of what the figures mean practically, the Yankees could roughly pocket another $45 million in profit if their player payroll was $168 million (same as the Red Sox) instead of the $213 million it is. The Yankees put profits back into the ball club.
BIG AL -
“Me. I’m old fashioned, when I love someone, or someting, I enjoy looking for the positives, and look past any negatives.”
See, even a normal guy like you and a crazy nutjob like me can agree on many things.
“I think a true Yankees fan wants to praise his team every day”
I agree again. I meant that, the only desire that I have today is to praise the Yankees.
It’s so difficult to imagine how much different my life would be if the Yankees were not in it.
“You are correct. The Yankees are not the richest team in MLB”
Yes, they are.
The Steinbrenners may not be the personally wealthiest majority owners in the league, but that is not the same thing.
“Fans of other clubs shouldn’t hate the Yankees, but, rather their teams owners for taking the profits out, and not using that money to better the team. A prime example is the Marlins, but they are not alone.”
Boy, I always find this argument odd, this notion that other fans should admire the Yankees. Why as fans do we need to try to convince ourselves of things like this?
I can completely understand why if you’re not a Yankees fans, that you’d HATE the Yankees.
And as I fan, frankly I don’t know why any of us would want it any other way.
jpb173 October 12th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
Has anyone else noticed that Rays’ ace pitcher David Price has exceeded what would be a normal innings limit for a young pitcher? Last year (his first in MLB), he pitched 128 innings. This season, he pitched 208 innings in the regular season and (so far) 6-2/3 innings in the postseason. His postseason innings total will increase as he will be the starting pitcher tonight. Its probable that he will log 230-240 innings this season (regular season and postseason).
I have a feeling that David Price won’t be as effective if the Rays make it to the ALCS. Also, his effectiveness next year may be limited by such a large workload this season.
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That’s an interesting point, particularly about how the workload may affect him now.
But bear in mind that he also pitched 34 innings at Durham AAA in ’09, so he’s actually going from 162 IP to 208, which I think is within the general rule of thumb used for an increased innings count (+50 or so?).
Hey Big Al, sorry for whatever I said that offended you today. The only time I directly addressed one of your posts was to show that Liriano’s opponents batting statistics were better than Sabathia’s. I didn’t take any personal shots at you or attack you so I figure there’s no need to take shots at me – let’s try to keep the discussion mature and civil here.
Stuckey99: I don’t believe in narrative explanations, because I don’t believe we should speak about players in cliches when facts are available. To give it a try, though, I’d point out that Sabathia was 1-2 in 5 starts against the Rays and started games the Yankees lost to Price twice down the stretch. Liriano went 3-0 in 5 starts against the division rival White Sox who were ahead of the Twins in the standings in August. He was also 7 innings, 1 ER, 10K in his only start against Tampa (a no decision). Both were 1-0 against Texas in a single start (C.C.’s was a bit better). Liriano pitched for a team who’s #2 starter was Carl Pavano and saw injuries (and ineffectiveness) from other core starters like Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker. Sabathia pitched on a team with two other All Star starting pitchers in Hughes and Pettitte and, while both teams had solid bullpens, Sabathia had the benefit of the greatest closer ever finishing his starts.
How’s that for a narrative of why Liriano was more valuable?
CR9 October 12th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
BIG AL -
“Me. I’m old fashioned, when I love someone, or someting, I enjoy looking for the positives, and look past any negatives.”
See, even a normal guy like you and a crazy nutjob like me can agree on many things.
“I think a true Yankees fan wants to praise his team every day”
I agree again. I meant that, the only desire that I have today is to praise the Yankees.
It’s so difficult to imagine how much different my life would be if the Yankees were not in it.
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Amen and amen!
I believe Cole Hamel’s heavy workload in 2008 effected his performances in 2009. But it’s a bit 20/20 hindsight.
stuckey -
“Boy, I always find this argument odd, this notion that other fans should admire the Yankees. Why as fans do we need to try to convince ourselves of things like this?”
Those 2 sentences said nothing of admiration. Those 2 sentences said that fans of other teams should hate their owners for not reinvesting profits into the team.
“I can completely understand why if you’re not a Yankees fans, that you’d HATE the Yankees.”
Jealousy would be the only reason.
“And as I fan, frankly I don’t know why any of us would want it any other way.”
Some people strive for fairness.
Who cares if other teams CAN spend more money, the fact is they don’t and that’s the world we live and must base opinions on…
Totally unrelated to C.C. vs. Liriano’s value, we don’t need a lefty specialist like Ring and Girardi needs to cool it with the Tony LaRussa every lefty hitter sees a lefty reliever nonsense he falls into. Looking at Robertson in his career lefties have a lower batting average (.240 to .246) and much lower slugging percentage (.333 to .391) against him, meaning he should be perfectly to fine to face lefties and righties in a big spot in the ALCS. Comparable number of ABs also 284 vs RHP and 225 vs LHP in his career.
there is nothing like a few days off for the blog to descend into ridiculous conversations about almost anything, like the CC-Liriano ‘debate’.
Liriano is not even in the same universe as CC. Let’s see him stay healthy for another full year and pitch better next year than in 2010, until then all the Sabermetrics in the world can’t provide any meaningful comparison. You can’t use one season as a means of comparison to CC, who has done it for more than 5 years at a top level.
Anyone who relies strictly on Sabermetrics is evaluating baseball players is bound to finish second in a field of two, it’s a fool’s mission.
For the record – re: the Florida Marlin vs. New York Yankees comparison.
I don’t necessarily disagree with the premise that others teams can and should reinvest operating income more, but let’s remember, yearly operating income only tells PART of the story.
Yankees franchise valuation has been estimated most recently at $1.6 BILLION by Forbes.
Marlins – $317m.
There is much, MUCH more to this story than the simple comparisons being made.
And the YES Network is a wholly independent entity from the New York Yankees.
Again, there is SO much more to the story has been cited so far.
Liriano pitched for a team who’s #2 starter was Carl Pavano and saw injuries (and ineffectiveness) from other core starters like Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker. Sabathia pitched on a team with two other All Star starting pitchers in Hughes and Pettitte and, while both teams had solid bullpens, Sabathia had the benefit of the greatest closer ever finishing his starts.
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Andy did not pitch from July 18- Sept 19 , effectively was not available as a 2 in the second half.
Hughes during the same period had an ERA of 4.79 while Pavano posted 4.20 ERA.
CC , by most narrative , was the only reliable force to be counted on in the second half on the Yankees in the heat of a pennant race.
Do we really need to go on about Javy and Burnett ?
“there is nothing like a few days off for the blog to descend into ridiculous conversations about almost anything, like the CC-Liriano ‘debate’.”
MG
You are a NY Rangers fan iirc, right?
I have a great comparison. Putting aside the championships factor: Liriano is to CC as DiPietro is to Lundqvist. Agree?
Well, listening to the MSG broadcast of the Rangers/Islanders game, all Joe M did all game was praise the Isles and in particular, he said…
To steal your line, DiPietro is not even in the same universe as Lundqvist.
What track record does Liriano really have? Never pitched 200 innings. Lots of talent… sure can’t deny that but hey, you can’t stay healthy, I don’t really think you’re worth as much as a guy who has a consistent track record of close to/over 200 quality innings.
Hey MG, worked pretty well for the ’04 and ’07 Sox I think… Or the Friedman Rays these days who are extremely metric heavy. Sure helped the Yankees in ’09 when they made moves like acquiring Nick Swisher too (a questionable move in old school stats, the definition of buying low in advanced metrics)…
I also think you’re way off if you actually believe that any intelligent proponent of advanced metrics thinks that things are ONLY computed through stats – obviously scouting, potential skills/talent, injuries, intangibles, etc (all things that don’t show up in a box score), are highly relevant in evaluating a player.
Has anyone else noticed that Rays’ ace pitcher David Price has exceeded what would be a normal innings limit for a young pitcher? Last year (his first in MLB), he pitched 128 innings. This season, he pitched 208 innings in the regular season and (so far) 6-2/3 innings in the postseason. His postseason innings total will increase as he will be the starting pitcher tonight. Its probable that he will log 230-240 innings this season (regular season and postseason).
I have a feeling that David Price won’t be as effective if the Rays make it to the ALCS. Also, his effectiveness next year may be limited by such a large workload this season.
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That’s an interesting point, particularly about how the workload may affect him now.
But bear in mind that he also pitched 34 innings at Durham AAA in ‘09, so he’s actually going from 162 IP to 208, which I think is within the general rule of thumb used for an increased innings count (+50 or so?).
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Good point..I forgot about the 34 innings in the minors last season. But, his total right now is 214-2/3 innings (208 in regular season and 6-2/3 so far in the playoffs). He will add more innings tonight and then will probably get another 2 starts in the LCS if the Rays make it. Thats a big jump…generally teams don’t like to add more than 40 innings per year.
stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
For the record – re: the Florida Marlin vs. New York Yankees comparison. I don’t necessarily disagree with the premise that others teams can and should reinvest operating income more, but let’s remember, yearly operating income only tells PART of the story.
Yankees franchise valuation has been estimated most recently at $1.6 BILLION by Forbes. Marlins – $317m. There is much, MUCH more to this story than the simple comparisons being made. And the YES Network is a wholly independent entity from the New York Yankees. Again, there is SO much more to the story has been cited so far.
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Totally agree, any discussion of finances is complex and would take far more space and time to discuss adequately. But, in the context of what teams put back into their ball club, in an effort to win, there is no question that the Yankees could pocket significantly more profits than they do.
3 Days, 6 Hours, amd 57 Minutes until Game 1 of the ALCS
(Note: I am going by the 8pm start time on the TBS website)
CR9, I don’t think Lundquist, as good as he is, is the equivalent of CC (yet) and haven’t seen DiPietro enough to have an opinion. I don’t get Rangers games on a regular basis, the NHL ticket is way overpriced which is too bad, Sam Rosen was a high school classmate and friend who is terrific on play by play.
You also may not realize this, MG, but defensive metrics are computed (depending on the stat) by actually watching every single play in major league baseball and evaluate what balls players get to and don’t comparative to other players. Here’s a great article from SI Joe Posnanski about how defensive metrics are created: http://joeposnanski.si.com/201.....d-defense/
BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Hey MG, worked pretty well for the ‘04 and ‘07 Sox I think… Or the Friedman Rays these days who are extremely metric heavy. Sure helped the Yankees in ‘09 when they made moves like acquiring Nick Swisher too (a questionable move in old school stats, the definition of buying low in advanced metrics)…
I also think you’re way off if you actually believe that any intelligent proponent of advanced metrics thinks that things are ONLY computed through stats – obviously scouting, potential skills/talent, injuries, intangibles, etc (all things that don’t show up in a box score), are highly relevant in evaluating a player.
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old style metrics worked fine with Swish, he has good power, draws walks, and they picked him up for a bag of baseballs. He also had a horrible year in 2008. I would have made that trade in a heartbeat as would any other ‘old timer’ who never looks at the advanced stats.
as to your second point, all you did to compare Liriano to CC was use sabermetrics, thus invalidating the second point completely…
“Liriano is to CC as DiPietro is to Lundqvist. Agree?”
Hahaha, CR9, this made me choke on my Pepsi.
Are you a hockey fan?
I’ve been gone since Friday, so I’ve been out of the loop. Who’s everyone rooting for tonight?
ConcernedCitizen October 12th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
I?ve been gone since Friday, so I?ve been out of the loop. Who?s everyone rooting for tonight?
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A 32 inning game!
“Those 2 sentences said nothing of admiration. Those 2 sentences said that fans of other teams should hate their owners for not reinvesting profits into the team.”
The NY Yankees generate FAR more revenue than other teams.
Again, until any of us can look into the books of the YES Network, AND take into full account the very legitimate implications of franchise valuations, taking pride in the fact the Yankees organization seemingly takes fewer yearly operating profits than other teams is a self-con job by fans.
Yankees proper could likely (and have) operate in the red and still be a profitable enterprise.
Yankees CAN spend more money than they do. They choose not to.
Which I’m FINE with btw, you won’t ever hear me complaining about the payroll.
But conversely, I’m not self-deluding myself into thinking the Yankees are making some sacrifice by having the league’s highest payroll.
That’s naïveté I just don’t possess.
“Jealousy would be the only reason.”
Jealousy is most often cited by those who feel it the most.
I honestly don’t relate to it so as I rule I don’t put in on others.
“Some people strive for fairness.”
“Fairness” how?
You have to care what other fans or the media thinks and expresses for “fairness” to be of any relevance.
Gimme postseason every October. You can keep “fairness”. I have no use for it.
When’s the first game of the ALCS?
BWOzar October 12th, 2010 at 1:05 pm
You also may not realize this, MG, but defensive metrics are computed (depending on the stat) by actually watching every single play in major league baseball and evaluate what balls players get to and don’t comparative to other players. Here’s a great article from SI Joe Posnanski about how defensive metrics are created: http://joeposnanski.si.com/201…..d-defense/
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are those the same metrics that don’t have Teix as the best first baseman in the American League defensively because of his lack of range? What a bunch of crap…
MG -
Im not going to argue whether Lundqvist is as good as CC. That was not my intent.
Lundqvist – a 3 time Vezina finalist and the only goalie to win 30+ games in his first 5 seasons – is far better than DiPietro. DiPietro is lucky if he even plays 5 games in a year. Lundqvist is far superior to DiPietro.
Just as CC is far superior to Liriano. There isn’t even a question.
Sam Rosen is an excellent broadcaster, and he’s a Yankees fan.
first game of the ALCS is Friday night
and I don’t know who to root for, I actually sort of fear Tampa more than Texas even w/ the Rangers having Lee
CR9 October 12th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
MG -
Sam Rosen is an excellent broadcaster, and he’s a Yankees fan
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he was also the captain of our high school baseball team-good catcher, threw well, could hit the ball…
Shame – Yes, a fan of all New York. Even the Liberty!
I think any reasonable baseball fan would stipulate that advanced metrics have a place in player evaluation. So does good old fashioned, traditional baseball smarts. I don’t think the two are mutually exclusive, like many things in life it’s about balance. Both have their place and should be used in conjunction with one another – not as an either or proposition.
Can everyone agree with that?
Hey MG, that’s not true – look north a few comments and I made a half-hearted effort to come up with a narrative reason for Liriano having the better year, even though I think narrative things like that are nonsense. I don’t really know how to answer that last point any further other than to say that’s really not the case. I’ve acknowledged there’s a case to be made for Sabathia having the better year, but that many (not all) advanced metrics support Liriano having had the better season. I’ve acknowledged that there is no number that perfectly encapsulates a player’s value (though WAR is a pretty good one). Everything needs to be taken together, what I don’t buy into are narratives born of cliches about wins and losses, etc. Sabathia won 21 games because he is a fantastic pitcher who got about 5.9 runs per game of support from one of the best offenses in baseball, backed by a great bullpen. Liriano received fewer runs (5.0) and faced better offensive players than Sabathia looking at the average Avg, OBP or SLG (in all 3 categories) of all individual opposing players faced. Those aren’t arguments based in pure projection metrics (or whatever math voodoo you think I’m trying to use), they’re based on the narrative of what actually happened this past year.
You’re 100% correct West Coast Yankee Fan, I couldn’t agree more.
The problem is in discounting one or the other.
stuckey99 October 12th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
?I compare Timmy Bong hit to a F22 raptor , stealth and under the radar , with capabilities of long range tactical deployments as well as possessing dog fighting maneuverabilities.?
Wouldn?t a VW Minibus be most appropriate?
The Minibus doesn’t have AIM-120C AMRAAM capability – last time I checked they could only carry AIM-9 Sidewinders!
stuckey -
“Jealousy is most often cited by those who feel it the most.”
“I honestly don’t relate to it so as I rule I don’t put in on others”
First, those two lines contradict each other.
Second, where are your statistics to support the assertion in the first line? Remember, accuracy!
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“But conversely, I’m not self-deluding myself into thinking the Yankees are making some sacrifice by having the league’s highest payroll.”
Nobody ever said that. Your arrogance fools you into thinking that you can interpret meanings from other people’s words – meanings that just aren’t there.
Nobody believes that the Yankees are making any kind of sacrifice by having the largest payroll in the league. The Yankees are merely striving to put the best product on the field to entertain their fans and win – something most other fans dont have the luxury of experiencing.
there is no number that perfectly encapsulates a player’s value (though WAR is a pretty good one).
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WAR is not , to a large , it attributes too much value in defense in it’s evaluation.
For example , FWAR measures Gardner as 2.5 times of value to that of Demon Young. Which is simply laughable by any measure.
Another example , Matt Kemp accrued an .4 WAR as oppose to Gardner’s 5.4 . Is there even a GM out there they would trade these two even straight up ?
jpb173- Let them pitch-stop babying these millionaires. That’s the Ray’s model. The Yankees can learn from the Rays.
““I honestly don’t relate to it so as I rule I don’t put in on others”
Also, as a rule, I dont like to advocate violence. But hey, rules are meant to be broken
I agree with you %100 West coast Fan.
jpb173- Let them pitch-stop babying these millionaires. That’s the Ray’s model. The Yankees can learn from the Rays.
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David Price isn’t a millionaire yet.
jpb173- He received over 5 millions in signing bonus, thats a millionaire in my book.
first game of the ALCS is Friday night
and I don’t know who to root for, I actually sort of fear Tampa more than Texas even w/ the Rangers having Lee
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I don’t know who to root for either but I hope that both Lee and Price throw about 160 pitches each tonight.
jpb173- He received over 5 millions in signing bonus, thats a millionaire in my book.
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So…you think the Rays should take the risk of blowing their 5 million dollar investment in Priceby overworking him in order to get one WS title? I wonder how many of their young players will stay with organization knowing that.
Be back later for the Rays game! Ciao…..for now!
Cashmoney – there are two different types of WAR: bWAR and fWAR that each compute defense (and in pitching’s case what happens after the ball leaves the bat) differently. Kemp’s bWAR is 2.3 (fWAR is 0.4) – Gardner’s bWAR is 4.0 – but, frankly, it seems reasonable when metrics AND scouting agree that Kemp’s defense was piss poor this year, one of the main reasons Torre and Kemp clashed. Beyond that Kemp reached base 31% of the time, Gardner reached base more than 38% of the time – the most valuable thing a player can do is to avoid making outs (Gardner’s batting average was also about 30 points higher and the fact that he’s a superlative baserunner helps his value). The numbers Gardner put up last year suggest he’s Carl Crawford with less power and SBs, but more walks (his OBP this year was about 20 points higher than Crawford’s career high). He also saw the most pitches per at bat of any player in baseball history for so long as that data is available (into the 70s), which is a fantastic trait for wearing out an opposing starter and helping teammates have the opportunity to view more actual pitches.
I’m rooting for the Rays.
Texas hitting is just too good, and the Yankees have proven they can hit the Ray’s pitching.
I’m not saying Texas is better then the Rays, but I like the matchup better.
CR9 – gotcha. Well good luck this season from a fan from across the Hudson. May the Rangers and Devils meet in the playoffs to make our spring more interesting! (Spring training AND playoff banter? Besides right now, its my favorite time of year!!
A 32 inning game sounds good to me….maybe even 3/4 of that.
jpb173- No, but they shouldn’t baby him like the Yankees did with Joba. I think they made the
correct decision in not putting a limitation on his innings this past season.
Cashmoney – there are two different types of WAR: bWAR and fWAR that each compute defense (and in pitching’s case what happens after the ball leaves the bat) differently. Kemp’s bWAR is 2.3 (fWAR is 0.4) – Gardner’s bWAR is 4.0 – but, frankly, it seems reasonable when metrics AND scouting agree that Kemp’s defense was piss poor this year, one of the main reasons Torre and Kemp clashed. Beyond that Kemp reached base 31% of the time, Gardner reached base more than 38% of the time – the most valuable thing a player can do is to avoid making outs (Gardner’s batting average was also about 30 points higher and the fact that he’s a superlative baserunner helps his value). The numbers Gardner put up last year suggest he’s Carl Crawford with less power and SBs, but more walks (his OBP this year was about 20 points higher than Crawford’s career high). He also saw the most pitches per at bat of any player in baseball history for so long as that data is available (into the 70s), which is a fantastic trait for wearing out an opposing starter and helping teammates have the opportunity to view more actual pitches.
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I know BWAR use total zone ,hence the variation . Here is a very simple question , would any
GM trade Kemp for Gardner straight up ? If no, there something wrong with the evaluation in value then. By BWAR narrative , Kemp is still roughly half of player than Gardner.
And ill be back for game. Good day people.
Wave,
I come back and see no comment from you on Bill Hall. I thought you would have my back on that one
jpb173- No, but they shouldn’t baby him like the Yankees did with Joba. I think they made the correct decision in not putting a limitation on his innings this past season.
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tmar, We won’t know if its the correct decision until next season. If he is able to go a full season next year then they did, indeed, make the right decision. If his season is limited by elbow or shoulder problems then it might not have been such a good decicion. It would be a disasterous decision if he has major health issues that (heaven forbid) shorten his career.
Sounds like Girardi has “officially” named AJ the 4th starter.
Not surprised.
LOL So CC has a bad body in terms of how it will hold up, but the fact that he’s stayed healthy and Liriano has had TJ surgery isn’t a factor? Wow…….because Liriano’s arm is golden from here on out.
I’m sorry, I don’t see any way that Liriano is a better pitcher than CC. I think CC is underrated for a superstar pitcher.
The point re: the Twins that I’ve seen made is not so much that they need an ace, but they need swing and miss pitchers. The AL Central is totally different than the AL East. The East teams are punishers offensively and the nice stuff that pitchers in other divisions can get away with is not sufficient to beat the beasts of the East.
the fundamental flaw in WAR is it attribute way too much to the idea of run saved and values in defensive metric which can reliable sometimes.
for example , garder can save a run in 13-2 game , what actual value does represent to the team?
Also, UZR and Total are useful in large sample , say five years. Yet somehow , they discount that in attributing to WAR value on yearly basis
In closing , when evaluating a complex construct like baseball, one needs to take in all factors and contextual variables.
I do not think most GMs would take Liriano over CC – not even close. CC is a horse beyond what he does performance wise. He carried the Brewers on his back and he’s carried the Yankees. Let me see Liriano do that repeatedly and then we’ll talk.
Cashmoney:
That’s not a fair way to utilize WAR – that’s not what it says. It says that in 2010 Brett Gardner was a better player; it doesn’t say anything about how they’ll develop into the future, what type of skill sets they have (and how those skills sets age), the player’s current age or what they did in the past.
By fWAR, Kemp was a 5.0 win player in ’09, 3.2 in ’08 and 1.7 in roughly half of ’07 (Kemp was 5.8, 3.0, 1.3 by bWAR in that time). Gardner was worth 2.1 in fWAR and 1.6 in bWAR last year in less than half a season of playing time. Gardner is also a year older.
So to answer your question I think most GMs should look to the fact that Kemp is a year younger, has been a superb player in the past and would look at ’10 as a down year with a good possibility for a rebound. WAR is a tool to be used in evaluating a player, one year of WAR is not – nor did I present it to be – the end-all be-all evaluation of a player. I do, however, think it is the best backwards looking tool to evaluate how valuable a player was in a given season.
“# tmar October 12th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
I’m rooting for the Rays.
Texas hitting is just too good, and the Yankees have proven they can hit the Ray’s pitching.
I’m not saying Texas is better then the Rays, but I like the matchup better.
”
also another factor that I just thought about is that the Yankees always feel ‘comfortable’ in Tampa. Jeter has a home here along w/ some other players that get to sleep in their own beds for a ‘road game’. Also there will be more Yankee fans in the stands at the Trop than at Rangers ballpark. Also have the Yankee complex for off days/treatment
“Totally unrelated to C.C. vs. Liriano’s value, we don’t need a lefty specialist like Ring and Girardi needs to cool it with the Tony LaRussa every lefty hitter sees a lefty reliever nonsense he falls into. Looking at Robertson in his career lefties have a lower batting average (.240 to .246) and much lower slugging percentage (.333 to .391) against him, meaning he should be perfectly to fine to face lefties and righties in a big spot in the ALCS. Comparable number of ABs also 284 vs RHP and 225 vs LHP in his career.”
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I certainly don’t think Ring is the answer, but discounting playing matchups because of Robertson’s splits is misguided.
Most managers, Girardi included, use their LH specialist/s for certain types of lefties. Dangerous LHB mostly. If one of those dangerous LHB comes up a lot of the time Robertson and the like will be taken out for the LH specialist.
The problem is that when comparing those splits you don’t know the quality of the LHB Robertson has faced in his career.
And that is essential when deciding whether Robertson should be left in to face a Josh Hamilton for example as opposed to going to a LOOGY.
BWOzar–
I like the way you analyze things…my compliments.
LGY-
Sorry, I was distracted.
Bill Hall would be a great bench player for us but he’s priced himself out of our bench market with his good year.
Any statistic that shows both Teix and Robbie Cano as negative to the norm, as does UZR, immediately renders it useless and calls into question other statistics based on similar algorithms.
I completely understood your point on Liriano, and agree that the only argument was the way you phrased your point…Many GMs, not every, would possibly choose Liriano because of budget constraints and how they have to field a team with their limited resources. The $18M or so could get them a decent DH ($6M), and perhaps 2 more pitchers.
It’s a very valid point, even though we can all agree CC is a better pitcher who brings a lot of value to the Yankees.
tampayank October 12th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
“# tmar October 12th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
. Also there will be more Yankee fans in the stands at the Trop than at Rangers ballpark.
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Considering the Rays probably have 50 fans, that won’t be difficult
By fWAR, Kemp was a 5.0 win player in ‘09
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Again, Gardner has accrued higher value in FWAR this year than Kemp’s 09 season whom many considered as a MVP worthy season.
How is that an accurate stat in evaluating true value of a player?
Totally unrelated to anything in this discussion, but did anyone read the “confessions of an agent” story in Sports Illustrated, in which this guy talks candidly about paying off players?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....?eref=sihp
Both the Gardner and Liriano examples of how advanced stats are good TOOLS that aid in a larger, comprehensive evaluation of a player.
Kemp is better than Gardner, though certain numbers rate Gardner higher.
Any gm that takes Liriano over CC based on advanced statistics probably wouldn’t last long. CC has a history of being more dependable and durable than Liriano. You don’t need a stat to tell you that.
LGY – Great point. My point was more than Ring has historically not retired major league left hander hitters (regardless of quality) at any better rate than Robertson (used a handful of numbers in the last LoHud post). I’m having trouble finding Robertson’s opponent OPS split for lefties and righties but, logically, I’m sure you’re right that he’s dodged some tough lefty batters over the years.
“Nobody believes that the Yankees are making any kind of sacrifice by having the largest payroll in the league. The Yankees are merely striving to put the best product on the field to entertain their fans and win – something most other fans dont have the luxury of experiencing.”
Yankees could spend more. They could strive harder.
Just like other teams.
All things are relative.
This is a fairly simple and obvious point.
I might have to consider Kemp for Gardner–if I believed that 2010 was an aberration. I would have to consider where I would play Kemp and what that would add to the line-up.
I think Kemp would make a very good RFer (great arm), and his potential for power in the Yankee line-up would make him a very good hitter int eh #6 or #7 slot. I would guestimate he would get 30 homers and 10 RBI.
Against that, I would have to think how Gardner would be used. If he is moved to lead-off, and I view that move as a hedge against Jeter aging, then I might value Gardner higher still.
However, if I viewed Gardner as a #9 hitter, Kemp gets tempting.
It’s an interesting question…and I think I changed my mind from the other day when someone asked it, and now would keep Gardner.
.4 WAR also means Kemp has performed as a slightly above replacement level player this year , BW, an intelligent mind surely would find that little absurd ,no?
see detail reasons of my skepticism of WAR above.
“Many GMs, not every, would possibly choose Liriano because of budget constraints and how they have to field a team with their limited resources.”
This misses the point.
The point is not budget constraints. All budgets, even the Yankees’ budget, is constrained.
The issue is opportunity cost.
A team has $24MM. How does it choose to spend it? Whatever that team spends it on, it doesn’t have the money to spend on something else. It doesn’t matter how much money the team spends, it doesn’t matter what its budget is. Opportunity cost visits the rich and poor alike.
CC made sense to buy, because he was a free agent. The opportunity cost was just another expensive free agent that the Yanks chose not to buy.
But you can’t compare CC and Liriano without thinking of opportunity cost. What could the Yanks do with the difference between CC’s and Liriano’s salary? A lot. $22MM is a real ballplayer, or several.
The notion that the Yanks are indifferent to $22MM is misguided.
Bad news: someone just gave AJ a simulated black eye.
The Rays are probably the better match for the Yankees. If we can keep the Rays bats quiet, they could be easy pickings…no guarantees there.
Texas took us to the cleaners when we were there in Late August, early September. They ran on the catcher constantly, and frankly, although I think the Yankees are the better team, I think the Rangers can beat the Yankees more easily than the Rays.
We almost won the season series from Tampa playing a 2nd string lineup.
Gardner is one of the Yankees few cost-controlled players, especially with Hughes and Joba becoming arbitration eligible. They aren’t going to trade him for a player who makes a lot more money.
“I don’t believe in narrative explanations, because I don’t believe we should speak about players in cliches when facts are available. ”
When did narrative and cliche become synonymous?
I said a word and you decided what that meant.
I simply meant tell a story, any story you like.
“To give it a try, though, I’d point out that Sabathia was 1-2 in 5 starts against the Rays and started games the Yankees lost to Price twice down the stretch. Liriano went 3-0 in 5 starts against the division rival White Sox who were ahead of the Twins in the standings in August.”
YOU’RE citing won-loss?
Isn’t this against the sabremetrics code?
Kearns struck out again.
Wave–no, I think we are in agreement. My point about spending the differnce is the opportunity cost point.
For a smaller team with less resources and probably fewer stars, the opportunity to field upgrades in 4 positions guides them one way. For the Yankees, the opportunity was to get an Ace who could lead them to a WC.
We arrive at the same conclusion. Different needs lead to different outcomes.
Wave–no, I think we are in agreement. My point about spending the differnce is the opportunity cost point.
For a smaller team with less resources and probably fewer stars, the opportunity to field upgrades in 4 positions guides them one way. For the Yankees, the opportunity was to get an Ace who could lead them to a WC.
We arrive at the same conclusion. Different needs lead to different outcomes.
“Bad news: someone just gave AJ a simulated black eye.”
Now, if only the Yankees could give AJ a simulated playoff roster spot.
I think Kemp would make a very good RFer
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Bojo, that’s another thing. Kemp accrued so little value as a player in FWAR has lot to do how UZR measured his defensive ability as a CFer. it doesn’t taking into consideration his ability to play LF or RF. It evaluates in a vacuum .
Cashmoney: Quickly, Gardner got on base 38.3% of the time this year (Kemp was 35.2% in ’09). Gardner let the Yankees in OBP.
Beyong that, I prefer bWAR to fWAR if I have to choose, but I tend to think an average of the two is a fair way to evaluate the quantify a season – which would make Kemp’s 5.4 average in ’09 better than Gardner’s average of 4.7 this year. Also, what’s your basis for saying defense is overrated in the stats? Just because recent years had seen a move away from defense, in a way valuing it properly is a homecoming to how players were evaluated all the way back to the 1800s – defense, plate control, baserunning.
BoJo – Thanks for the compliment
CC and Liriano are at different points in their career. Liriano will cost a pretty penny at some point.
Was the original question framed with cost in it? It started so long ago, I don’t know. But it’s not fair to change the rules in the middle of the argument if cost was not mentioned in the beginning.
Gardner 2011 vs. Crawford 2011 is a much better discussion because it’s a realistic scenario.
The point about opportunity costs is valid to a point, but there are exceptions to every rule.
In this instance, giving CC a very large contract is like paying a premium for a brand name item, if you can afford it, because of it’s track record.
Similarly, a team that has deep pockets would pay a premium for CC because of his track record.
Cash–
Agreed. That is where one deviates from the numbers and looks to what they see.
The numbers don’t or shouldn’t rule evaluations, they should just add. an example is looking at a companies books during an audit. The numbers just point to where there should be further evaluaiton…a high level roadmap in a sense.
m-
In 2010, CC’s and Liriano’s seasons were so close as to be virtually inseparable in terms of performance. One person can emphasize one aspect of their season, another a different aspect, and come up with different answers. IMO.
There is more to the AL East than just the opponent. The stadiums are very hitter friendly.
YS, Camden Yards, Fenway, and the Rogers Centre were all in the top 10 most hitter friendly parks this season. Tropicana was the only pitchers friendly ballpark in the division.
In the AL Central where Liriano pitches, Kansas City was the only hitters friendly park. The rest of the division was all pitcher friendly.
RIch–
I’m not sure the valuation the Yankees put on CC was based on just track record. I think they felt what he could bring to the team would put them over the top and bring the team a WC.
Also, what’s your basis for saying defense is overrated in the stats?
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BW , I am saying both in BWAR and FWAR attribute too much value in run saved and defensive value in a vacuum.
Similarly, Liriano could not give the Yankees what CC gives them. He can not pitch on 3 days rest in the play-offs (which is a decided advantage in that it pits an ace against a #4 pitcher), and he could not give them the innings over the term of the contract.
“I’m not sure the valuation the Yankees put on CC was based on just track record. I think they felt what he could bring to the team would put them over the top and bring the team a WC.”
I think they decided CC was the best pitcher available and paid what was necessary to get him.
Well, if we’re going to play with variables, the AL East is better competition. But I have not looked up how many times Liriano pitched against the East. He may have drawn them the same amount as CC for all I know.
I’m not downplaying Liriano, but looking at the totality I think it’s pretty clear who the better pitcher is. Also, a gm would not look at just one season’s of work when making such a decision.
new thread
Stuckey – you can’t have it both ways, you can’t ask me to make a stat-free narrative case for Liriano (which I did) then call me a hypocrite for citing wins and losses – which I see as narrative points more than stats that are reflective of any skill in a player. What else goes into a narrative than that? Perhaps we’re not clear on how to define narrative here.
Simple version of what I think you want: Liriano is the best pitcher on a team with inferior teammates and thus is more relatively valuable to his team than Sabathia because of his stronger teammates. Liriano also performed better against the Twins’ #1 competitor than C.C. did against the Yankees’. That seems a lot like narrative to me…
Honestly, this argument is kind of in the beating a dead horse stage at this point now, though… Both are great pitchers, I believe Liriano is more relatively valuable to the Twins and more overall valuable to any team in baseball because of his salary and age. I think for one season only in a vacuum there’s an extremely valid case to be made for either and I think advanced stats suggest that for the innings pitched Liriano’s were better, if less numerous, than Sabathia’s.
Speaking of black eyes….on the latest episode of Boardwalk Empire, 2 guys are ‘joking’….one asks:’What do you say to a woman with 2 black eyes?”….The other guy says ‘I don’t know,what do you say to a woman with 2 black eyes??’….The first guy says ‘nothing, she’s already been told twice!!’……The 1920′s were a crazy time for sure!
tampayank October 12th, 2010 at 1:51 pm
“# tmar October 12th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
I’m rooting for the Rays.
Texas hitting is just too good, and the Yankees have proven they can hit the Ray’s pitching.
I’m not saying Texas is better then the Rays, but I like the matchup better.
”
also another factor that I just thought about is that the Yankees always feel ‘comfortable’ in Tampa. Jeter has a home here along w/ some other players that get to sleep in their own beds for a ‘road game’. Also there will be more Yankee fans in the stands at the Trop than at Rangers ballpark. Also have the Yankee complex for off days/treatment
**************
I on the other hand think the rangers are more beatable. The yankees finishes 4 -4 with the rangers – and thats because they lost 3 in a row to them in texas last month. In those 3 games, 2 were absolutely winnable – as a matter of fact if it wasn’t for joba giving up the HR to cruz and mariano blowing a save the yankees would have won 2 of the 3….and this is with them pitching aj burnett, javier vazquez and mosely in those 3 games (ie no cc, hughes and pettite)…..add to it the team was struggling as a whole (and still took 2 out of 3 to extra innings)
the yankees seem to be able to hit ranger pitching very well (except of course cliff lee – but thanks to tonights game they may only face him once this series) – while the yankees for some strange reason seem to have trouble with shields, neimann, davis (and price of course) even neftali feliz is hittable (as compared to soriano and benoit)..and you absolutely have to take into consideration that they have a rookie closing games – nerves may be a little high for feliz which plays into making bad pitches…
texas has the better offense – but tampa has alot more speed which we all know kill the yankees since they can’t seem to throw anyone out (they also seem to hit much better facing the yankees)…and the texas hitters can be pitched to (except maybe hamilton and to some extent guerrero) if the pitcher on the mound isn’t named burnett, vazquez, mosely or chamberlain…how many times has .199 hitting carlos pena killed the yankees? bj upton also seems to play to his talents every time he plays the yankees….and their super scrubs absolutely kill the yankees (matt joyce, reid brignac, dan johnson, willy aybar & sean rodriguez)
i’d feel alot more comfortable facing the rangers than the rays….but what do i know?
The one glaring fallacy in comparing Gardner and Crawford is this.
- Gardner has played in 300 games.
- Crawford has played in 1,235 games.
Wave Your Hat October 12th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
I think they decided CC was the best pitcher available and paid what was necessary to get him+++++++++
I am not sure they would have paid so much for just the best pitcher available. I think they felt he was a difference maker, and decided to pay for that difference that he could make.
:X :-*
:_@/:
?mrgreen?
?shock?