The vague numbers of the Yankees payroll
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Nov 03, 2010 
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The Yankees payroll budget is kind of like Phil Hughes’ innings limit: We all know roughly the number, but only a few key people seem to know the exact total, and even that exact total seems subject to a slight change if absolutely necessary.
Yesterday, Hal Steinbrenner said next year’s payroll will stay “within the same level” as this season. It gives a rough idea of what Brian Cashman will be working with, but it certainly doesn’t give anything concrete. It only opens the door to vague calculation and guesswork. These are the days when you really appreciate Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Staying the same
CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada and Damaso Marte are the multi-million-dollar Yankees whose contracts are staying the same next season. Alex Rodriguez is due for a small pay cut and Robinson Cano is due a small raise. Those cancel one another out.
Guys like Brett Gardner and Dave Robertson — who aren’t quite eligible for arbitration — will get small raises, but nothing especially significant.
Off the books
From the non-Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte division. Javier Vazquez and Nick Johnson are the biggest contracts coming off the books for the Yankees, totaling a little more than $17 million. From the Opening Day roster, the Yankees are also losing Randy Winn, Chan Ho Park and Marcus Thames, with contracts totaling a little more than $3 million.
We also know the Yankees initially budgeted room to pay Chad Guadin roughly $3 million (his contract before the spring training DFA). There are also some smaller contracts that could come off — Juan Miranda, Chad Moeller, etc. — but like the pre-arbitration players, the numbers are too small to play a significant factor into such vague calculations.
Due for a raise
Three significant players are due fairly significant raises: Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson have raises built into their current contracts. Those raises amount to about $7.5 million.
The Yankees also have their arbitration-eligible players. Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan and Sergio Mitre are definitely eligible. I’m pretty sure Phil Hughes is too, and probably Dustin Moseley. Mitre and Moseley could be non-tender candidates, but with Gaudin already gone and Alfredo Aceves a complete unknown, it probably makes sense to bring back at least one of them. Moseley would be the cheapest, and probably the most versatile.
The unknowns
Hard to know what exactly the Yankees payroll situation looks like without knowing the contracts for Jeter, Rivera and Pettitte. It’s hard to count them as legitimately coming off the books, but it’s impossible to know how significantly those contracts will change.
Offsets
Because we don’t know the exact number the Yankees have in mind, I’m not sure exact salary figures are the best way to look at the Yankees budget. Instead, consider what’s coming and going, then figure out what’s left.
I’ve already mentioned that the slight changes for Rodriguez and Cano offset one another. The lost Opening Day contracts of Winn, Park and Johnson also more or less offset the raises for Teixeira, Swisher, Granderson (within a half million or so). If the Yankees are lucky, the contracts for Thames and Gaudin — plus whatever money was set aside for those mid-season additions — will come close to paying for the arbitration raises.
What’s left?
Unless I’m missing something, the Yankees will have Javier Vazquez’s salary to play with — $11.5 million — but the rest will depend on contracts for Jeter, Rivera and Pettitte. There are obviously fluctuations that could occur — numbers could change, trades could happen — but there isn’t a lot of extra space. This is certainly not 2008 all over again.
As it stands, it’s going to be a squeeze going after Cliff Lee, and adding an additional player like Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth on the open market is difficult to imagine.
Why would the Yankees trade a young catcher who has shown the ability to hit major league pitching at a good rate for a backup in favor of a career minor leaguer who can’t hit and hasn’t played in the majors since 2006?
The lost Opening Day contracts of Winn
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Wow, I totally forgot about him.
# Erin November 3rd, 2010 at 1:08 pm
The lost Opening Day contracts of Winn
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Wow, I totally forgot about him.
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Wow!!
seems Winn disappeared faster than the cold spring weather!
FYI:
NEW YORK (AP)—The Yankees have completed two days of meetings and are prepared to pursue left-hander Cliff Lee(notes), the top available pitcher on the free-agent market.
In the team’s first offseason following the death of owner George Steinbrenner, New York has said its top priorities are re-signing Derek Jeter(notes), Mariano Rivera(notes) and Andy Pettitte(notes), who all became free agents Tuesday.
The Yankees’ No. 1 priority from outside the organization is Lee, an official familiar with the meetings said, speaking on condition of anonymity because no announcements were made.
Lee was 2-0 against the Yankees for Philadelphia in the 2009 World Series and beat New York for Texas in this year’s AL championship series. Lee was 0-2 against San Francisco in the Rangers’ five-game World Series loss.
Free agents can start negotiating with all teams starting Sunday. Texas says it hopes to re-sign Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young Award winner for Cleveland.
Tampa Bay left fielder Carl Crawford(notes) and Rays setup man Joaquin Benoit(notes) are among other free agents the Yankees discussed. The Los Angeles Angels also are thought to be interested in Crawford.
Tuesday’s session included managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner, general manager Brian Cashman, president Randy Levine, chief operating officer Lonn Trost and assistant general manager Jean Afterman.
Hal Steinbrenner and his brother, co-chairman Hank Steinbrenner, reviewed recommendations from team officials on Monday.
NOTES: RHP Chad Gaudin(notes) became a free agent Tuesday when he refused an outright assignment to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. LHP Royce Ring(notes) was sent outright to Scranton and OF Melky Mesa was added to the 40-man roster from Class-A Tampa.
“As it stands, it’s going to be a squeeze going after Cliff Lee”.
If this is true and iron Hal sticks to his budget, all the assumptions about the Yankees outbidding everyone else for Cliff Lee may be fallacious.
looking deep into the crystal ball: I can’t see Andy going out on a low note.
he seems to be an all-time good guy, but he’s also a competitor. he clearly still has something left in the tank. the injuries at the end of the season robbed him of any chance he had of getting his proper exit.
It’s all a big secret. What if, but, maybe, I don’t know, what numbers etc. This year there will be no bench. Jeter for $ 10, Mo for $ 10, Andy for $ 8. Lee and Werth in the Bronx.
‘The same level’ is a very open statement, and is probably purposely vague. The same level could simply mean in the $200-240m range, or it could mean around $200 or it could mean anything. I assume that they are prepared to go up in total payroll 5% or so. I am assuming that Pettitte is done and Jeter will take a slight pay cut, leaving them with a little free cash. They will then go over last years payroll to try to add Lee.
“It’s all a big secret. What if, but, maybe, I don’t know, what numbers etc. This year there will be no bench. Jeter for $ 10, Mo for $ 10, Andy for $ 8. Lee and Werth in the Bronx.”
Umm, not serious, right? Jeter’s marketing value alone puts him well above that, and Mo and Andy are not taking pay-cuts after fantastic seasons.
Same range means that they will do what it takes to sign Jeter, Pettite, Rivera, and Lee but will probably be frugal elsewhere.
Paco,
I was about to say the same thing. My belief is that 200 M number is quite flexible for the right players. I don’t think they will go over 240 M for any reason.
Given a choice between Marcus Thames or Jorge Vazquez, I’ll take Vazquez. Thames has a very limited glove, Vazquez adds more versatility.
With the idea of Montero, A-Rod, and Jeter getting most of the RH at bats as the DH’s, Thames will be excess.
I’d also like to see what Rene Rivera looks like in spring training as an option over Cervelli unless Cashman finds a good backup catcher using some of the expendable pieces in the farm system.
out doing a few errands and catching snatches of xm…they were discussing Jeter going to another team…maybe even the red sox. Of course they were not serious, but even Chip and Bret wouldn’t propose something like that
Let’s keep one thing in mind when hearing about Yankee Payroll: In the winter before the 2009 season Brian Cashman said that there was no way he could envision getting Sabathia, Burnett and Tex all in with the current budget.
A better way to figure out what the Yankees have to spend is to look ahead at next year’s free agent class.
Are there players/pitchers the Yankees would be all in on or are the pickings slim?
I realize that next year there is the potetial for Pujols, Gonzales and Fielder all to hit the market, but there is nowhere to put those guys on this team.
If the Yankees know there are no big time free agents available for next off season a year from now, they would make the guys they want now sign deals for lower base salaries this season to fit under budget that would balloon next year when Posada, Igawa, etc. fall off the payroll.
if the Yankees and Jeter agree on a length and dollar amount, I doubt he would object to taking less next year to give the team flexibility as long as the money came in the following years.
I think that’s how the Yankees look at the off season.
SJ, next time you respond to me, it might be nice if you didn’t completely misrepresent my post. I never said Phil had a bad year and I never said he was incapable of improvement…..if that’s what you’ve taken out of my posts, then that’s your business. What I’ve said is that he had an ok year and I am not positive that he will improve. How you think that means I said he had a bad year and can not improve is really beyond me.
someone mentioned Jeter’s market value. This is true, but it’s more to himself.
I don’t know how much money Yankees can make from his market value.
take an extreme example, if Jeter doesn’t play for Yankees anymore, will you stop watching Yankee games? or, will YES network sell for lower price?
I don’t think so.
Aww how sad about Sparky……..I always liked him.
Blake, if we agreed about the rotation, then I would agree with you that putting a kid in the #5 spot (if Andy should retire) is the right thing to do. I’m not opposed to that philisophically, I just don’t think 2011 is the right time.
The Yankees want Lee- short of giving him 7 years which I would not do under any circumstances, I don’t see them being outbid. However, it will mean that improvements in other areas may have to wait until mid-season.
JobaTHC
while that is true, how many extra seats did Jeter fill when he was breaking the all time hits record at old YS? IIRC, the weather was lousy and the Yankees didn’t stand a chance of making the playoffs, but fans came out to watch the games…the same will be true w/ his quest for 3000.
pgammo
Ricciardi was actually working one day in #RedSox office when Alderson came w/bigger job
SI_JoeLemire Was a gorilla suit involved in his exit?
Jeter has no open market value because no team is likely to make a bid on Jeter other than the Yankees.
Think about it, if you’re GM of the Royals – why would you even bother wasting time offering Derek Jeter a contract? You know that even if Derek were open to considering another team he’s not going to a loser like KC.
Theo also knows that Derek would never tarnish his Yankee legacy by going to Boston so he’s not going to waste his time making an offer either.
And if teams were willing to consider making offers to DJ they know they would have to grossly overpay to even get him to consider leaving the Yankees – what team is going to offer Jeter that kind of contract – one that would entice him to say “yeah you know what, I’ll leave NY?” The answer is no one.
There are few (if any) position players from the free agent class of 2012 that will interest the Yankees.
As for pitching, possibly a bullpen arm or two could be thought about.
2012 will see pitchers like Noesi, Betances, Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, and Phelps on the cusp of making the team if not sooner for a few. Others can be used as trading pieces.
19 winS and an all star selection by his peers in his first full year as a starter is just an “ok” year?
You aren’t “positive” he will improve?
Betsy,
Everybody here knows how you feel about Phil Hughes.
You went from being his biggest fan, and pleading with everybody on here to lower expectations for him, to being his biggest critic on here.
What everybody here can’t figure out is, why you turned so completely on him….despite the fact that he pitched very well this year?
It’s fine to change your mind. Just don’t say I am misrepresenting your position because I haven’t.
IMO, Jeter and Mo’s contracts getting done are a given. Andy will come back. The only need the Yanks have is to sign Cliff Lee. 5 years at 120 mil. I would like to see the Yanks roll the dice with some of the young guys and rebuild the team from within. Don’t need a super star at every position. Stay away from Werth and Crawford. Can’t forget the Yanks led the AL in runs scored. No need to believe that won’t happen again. Also need to get the right pitching coach. I would love to see Rags back in pinstripes.
The 2012 Free Agent Class really does stink – outside of Pujols the biggest guy on the market is probably Papelbon.
And while I’m sure in some universe people are thinking about a way to fit Phat Albert onto the Yankees, I just don’t see it happening.
Cot’s has next years’ payroll obligations at about 144-145 mil. Based on last season’s commitment that would give them roughly 70 mil to play with provided thay want to stay close to the 215 mil mark.
Lee’s approximate AAV will easily chew up 30-35% of that 70 mil. 20-25 mil.
Jeter, Mo and Pettitte provided they all return will easily eat up another 60%. possibly more.
Joba and Phil’s pending arb could represent 5 %.
That’s 70 mil right there and close to 215 total and there’s still 11 more guys to get to 25.
Not a lot of wiggle room there and that’s why Hal is coming out and saying the blank checks are off the table when it comes to re-signing players.
And if Texas comes out and goes 4 yrs/100 mil for Lee? Well I wouldn’t bet that the Yanks are going to beat that.
On the other hand, Hal might have a secret higher number in his head and he’s just bluffing a bit. That’s just good business.
Jeter and Mo still have market value to the Yankees. They give Yankees’ fans special people to admire. You see Jeter shirts on TV all over the country. They are ambassadors of the game in the finest sense of sportsmanship, etc. When they do retire, they will be sorely missed not just by fans, but by Yankee management. It is just a question of time now before they do retire, and I haven’t seen another Yankee with the charisma and charm of those 2 guys….I love Andy too. Posada also represents the Yankees in the finest sense of the word, but I would think this is his last season in pinstripes.
Next year’s free agent class is why I think the Yankees reload this year and work with players like Jeter and possibly Lee to take less this year and make it up to them next year.
Mo and Pettitte can’t take less next year as they will most likely only be 1 year deals.
Jorge’s money comes off the books next year along with Igawa’s so that is money they can factor into how they award contracts for this year.
I think, once you account for the Yanks’ exercising their options on Cano and Swisher, and the pay raise due Granderson, the Yanks don’t have that much net money coming off the books between 2011 and 2012.
Maybe between 7-$10MM.
G. Love,
Marte’s comes off too.
So, at the very least they’ll have 21 million with Posada, Marte and Igawa.
I think they should spend that future money early on Crawford and agree they should back load Jeter and Lee offers to absorb some of the immediate damage to the budget.
After 2011, they’ll still have some flexibility if Mo and Andy retire.
The timing of these expiring contracts but the front office can make it work with creative accounting.
edit: The timing of these expiring contracts is not ideal…but
I was wondering if the team would give Jeter a personal service contract that would include a 3 or 4 yrs player contract and backload it with deferred money. Everybody knows he is the face of the franchise and will be at every Yankee function for the next 20 yrs. He will of course be the last one out of the dugout at Old Timers day.
Here is an estimate based on Cotts of Salaries for NYY 2011:
TOTAL Pos’n 2010 2011 EST
1 Posada, Jorge c $13,100,000 $13.10
2 Cervelli, Francisco c $410,800 $0.41
3 Teixeira, Mark 1b $20,625,000 $23.13
4 Cano, Robinson 2b $9,000,000 $10.00
5 Rodriguez, Alex 3b $33,000,000 $32.00
6 Jeter, Derek ss $22,600,000 $20.00
7 Gardner, Brett of $452,500 $0.45
8 Granderson, Curtis cf $5,500,000 $8.25
9 Swisher, Nick lf-rf $6,850,000 $9.10
10 Sabathia, CC lhp-s $24,286,714 $24.29
11 Hughes, Phil rhp-s $447,000 $4.50
12 Pettitte, Andy lhp-s $11,750,000 $12.00
13 Burnett, A.J. rhp-s $16,500,000 $16.50
14 Brackman, Andrew rhp $1,237,500 $1.24
15 Noesi, Hector rhp $0.40
16 Nova, Ivan rhp $0.40
17 Rivera, Mariano rhp $15,000,000 $15.00
18 Aceves, Alfredo rhp $435,650 $0.44
19 Chamberlain, Joba rhp-s $487,975 $1.50
20 Logan, Boone lhp $0.75
21 Marte, Damaso lhp $4,000,000 $4.00
22 Robertson, David rhp $426,650 $0.43
23 Sanchez, Romulo rhp $0.40
24 Nunez, Eduardo ss $0.40
25 Pena, Ramiro inf $412,100 $0.41
26 Golson, Greg cf $15,000 $0.40
27 Albaladejo, Jonathan rhp $0.40
28 Corona, Reegie inf $0.40
29 De La Rosa, Wilkin lhp $0.40
30 Igawa, Kei $4,000,000 $4.00
31 Mitre, Sergio rhp $850,000 $0.85
32 Russo, Kevin 2b $0.40
33 Thames, Marcus dh-of $900,000 $0.90
34 Cliff Lee SP1 $22.00
35 83 Jesus Montero C $0.45
36 84 Austin Romine C $0.45
37 Brandon Laird inf-of $0.45
38 $0.45
39 $0.45
40 $0.45
TOTAL – NYY – O/D Now $213,359,389 $144.61
ADDS $231.54
Let me put it this way, if there will be 21 million more to spend after 2011 but there’s nobody on the free agent market worth investing in (looking at the 2012 FA list), why not spend that money now and backload Jeter and Lee and let payroll become temporarily bloated for just one year in 2011?
If there’s no place to spend the extra 21 million after 2011, they should spend it now.
TOTAL ? NYY Now $213,359,389 (2010) $144.61 (2011)
With ADDITIONS $231.54 (2011)
Don’t worry about it folks. Seriously, you’re working yourselves into a lather trying to figure out the payroll permutations for the next few years and I promise you that no matter how logical or on point your math may be right now there are things that will go on behind the scenes that will make your numbers moot.
Just remember, these are the Yankees. And while the Yankees want to get the payroll to a certain number; the more pressing number to them is 28 and then 29 and so on…
When Cash signed CC and AJ and then still wanted authorization to sign Tex; he got it. When Cash signs Derek and Mo if he wants authorization to sign Lee – he’ll get that too. And if there should be some circumstance where it makes sense for Cashman to still go out and sign Werth, he will present his reasoning to Hal and more than likely if he has a good point Hal will give him the benefit of the doubt and let him do it.
“So, at the very least they’ll have 21 million with Posada, Marte and Igawa.”
Very misleading.
Cot’s has the current 2011 commitments at $144.6M, and current 2012 commitments at $107.2M. The difference is caused not only by Jorge, Marte and Igawa coming off the payroll, but also by including only the buyout amounts on Cano’s and Swisher’s contracts ($2M and $1M, respectively).
Once you factor in the Yanks exercising Cano’s ($12M) and Swisher’s ($10.25M) contracts, the differential is only $8M.
Once you then include Gardner’s first arbitration raise and figure Hughes and Chamberlain with additional arbitration raises, there’s almost no savings between 2011 and 2012.
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 2:34 pm
Very true Wave! Plus if you add multi-year contracts for Mo or Jeter, then it skews things even more, not to mention if they do sign Lee.
Wave -
That assumes:
1) Swisher, Gardner, Hughes and Joba are still with the Yankees after next season
2) The Yankees and Cano don’t iron out a long term deal
3) The Yankees and the reps for those other players don’t work out a new deal.
Also Boone Logan goes to ARB at end of 2011 too.
Jeter has been good for the Yankees and vice versa. I don’t believe that he’s lost sight of the fact that playing on the biggest stage has allowed him to be the financial success he’s been.
He never could seen the off field endorsements and commercials in virtually any other city than what he’s seen in NYC courtesy of Madison Avenue.
It’s reason enough for him to accept a back loaded upcoming contract to give some breathing room for his team to have an edge in signing needed pieces.
Chip has it right. These are the Yankees.
They always have a plan. It may not always work but, there is always a plan in place.
Cliff Lee is priority #1.
He’s the guy they want.
If they get him, I doubt seriously they will sign any other Type A free agent.
Robertson has his first arbitration after 2011 as well.
I am hoping that those estimated numbers that RayVT posted are a little high for Lee and Jeter. Like that to come down about 7 million after combining those two salaries. Jeter maybe 17 mil and Lee about 20 mil instead of the estimated figures above.
SJ44
How does a Personal Services contract affect the Annual payroll & Luxury Tax? Is it a straight Dollars/years?
Say Jeter signs a 10 year personal Services contract or $100M. Does it count as $10M on cap? Or does it require him to play 10 yrs?
Chip-
My assumptions are the best assumptions at this point in time.
Based on current commitments, this alleged big expense drop between 2011 and 2012 is just a myth.
UnKnown November 3rd, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Yes they are high estimates.
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Very true unless the Yankee farm system produces big time & some vets are traded.
Andy was great but there are injury concerns. He did miss 2 months.
I would think he could take less guaranteed maybe reaching 11+ mil with incentives.
Derek’s AAV over the last 10 seasons was 18.9. They’re not giving him a raise.
Mo’s the one guy who could get the exact amount he got last season
Ray,
I don’t believe a Personal Services deal can circumvent the luxury tax.
“Very true unless the Yankee farm system produces big time & some vets are traded.”
RayVT-
That’s why I think it is not impossible that the Yanks will make a blockbuster deal this winter, trading Swisher or Granderson plus pitching for a good, young, cost-controlled outfielder.
That would free up payroll in 2012.
“I don’t believe a Personal Services deal can circumvent the luxury tax”
If it could, it seems like there would be a lot more personal services contracts than there are.
A personal services contract avoids the luxury tax because the player isn’t under MLB contract. Its not like Jeter could play.
Seeing Heyman float that “industry sources” say Jeter is looking for a 6 year extension made me laugh.
Here’s what the Yankees have to be asking themselves;
Do we lose attendance if Derek Jeter leaves the team? No.
Does the advertising rates on YES go down if Jeter leaves? No.
Do we have a better option at SS for the next couple of years? No.
This is why the Yankees are going to play harball (to a point) with Jeter and Hal is correct in thinking it has the potential to get messy.
If Derek Jeter seriously thinks he deserves a 6 year guaranteed contract extension, then he is delusional. Just because Hank goofed on Arod doesn’t mean that the team has to goof up the contract with him.
I’m really hoping to see a 3 year 45 million deal. That’s about as generous as the Yankees should be with him. He’s made a boat load of money here and paying for past performance is not the way to take this team into the next decade.
And for the record, I don’t see Arod ever playing here till he’s 42. At some point I expect a buyout will be reached between Alex and the Yankees when he’s unable to play on a daily basis making 30 million dollars a year.
On the non-Yankee front:
I’m interested in seeing what deals a few guys get:
Adrian Beltre
Carl Pavano
Miguel Tejada
Manny Ramirez
Rick Ankiel
Brandon Webb
Beltre obviously had the best season of the bunch, but he’s sandwiched two really good years around some quite awful ones. I wonder if GMs will be wary of giving him a long term deal and making him sing for his supper type of thing. Complicating matters is that he’s represented by Boras. My Guess: 3 years $45 mil from St. Louis
Pavano, much like Beltre saw a huge resurgance after he got out from a long term contract and actually had to earn his next paycheck. My Guess: 2 years 22 mil from the Twins
Tejada is a stranger case. He’s still productive but he’s older and he’s not really a SS anymore but he’s not very good at 3b either. I think in the right situation he could have a bounce back like Beltre did My Guess: 1 year 10 mil from Boston if Beltre leaves
Manny’s the most fascinating of the group because I don’t know if he’s even aware of his free agent status. His hitting went south last year – is it because he’s old or because he just wasn’t interested – I have no bloody idea. His days of playing the outfield are over for certain. He could possibly not sign anywhere, but if he does it has to be an AL contender My Guess: 1 year 10 mil in Tampa
Ankiel doesn’t really fit on this list in terms of his talent but he does intrigue me because he’s always intrigued me. He’s not going to get a starting job or a lot of money but he would be a very useful guy to have on a good team as a spare outfielder who can bring some power off the bench. I’ve often thought he has the perfect swing for Yankee Stadium and I still do. His ability to fill in at all three outfield spots is also nice, but the fact is that the Yankees have plenty of left handed outfielders to pick from already on the roster. My Guess: 1 year $800k deal from the Angels
Webb was one of the best pitchers in the game until he got hurt and the question is whether he is done or not. Reports are his rehab is not going well. Will a team pull a CM Wang and just stash him on the DL for as long as it takes for him to get healthy? I don’t know. My Guess: 1 year plus an option for little money from the Cardinals
“I’m really hoping to see a 3 year 45 million deal”
I’m “hoping” for a 2 year, $30M deal, although my hopes will probably be frustrated.
Clemens has a 10 year personal-services contract with the Astros.
His current responsibilities include staying as far away from Minute Maid Park as possible. He is also getting paid to never utter the word “Astro”
SJ44 November 3rd, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Chip has it right. These are the Yankees.
They always have a plan. It may not always work but, there is always a plan in place.
Cliff Lee is priority #1.
He’s the guy they want.
If they get him, I doubt seriously they will sign any other Type A free agent.
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I could see them signing Scott Downs or, if a trade involving Nick Swisher comes up that makes just too much sense for them to pass on then I could see them moving on Jayson Werth – but yes, short of that it will be Cliff Lee and then tinkering around the edges.
jnorris427 Apparently BA’s Yankees Top 10 prospects are: Montero, Sanchez, Betances, Banuelos, Brackman, Romine, Noesi, Nunez, Heathcott, Laird
G. Love November 3rd, 2010 at 2:53 pm
Seeing Heyman float that ?industry sources? say Jeter is looking for a 6 year extension made me laugh.
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Who knows how true that is. The next time Heyman’s right about anything will be the first time.
Personally, I think Hal’s comments were meant to imply that Jeter won’t be getting a ridiculous 6 or 7 yr deal. I still expect him to get 3/60 or more likely 4/80.
There won’t be a buyout.
In the last 20 years, there has been one buyout of a contract the Union approved. That was Andruw Jones’ deal with the Dodgers of a few years ago.
That took place only because the Dodgers had some internal issues re: their ability to pay the deferred compensation part of that deal and Jones became completely ineffective as a player.
The Yankees have no internal financial issues and I don’t see the Union looking to adjust the largest contract in history in any way.
He’s getting paid until he’s 42, unless he decides to retire prior to the end of his contract or suffers a career ending injury.
The numbers have been crunched by the hierarcy and Cashman knows what he has to work with.
His next move in Tampa is to meet with his pro scout and minor league execs to formulate the overall picture.
Soon the coaching staff will be finalized and free agents can be discussed next week. Cashman has open dialogue with most GM’s to get a feel of trades at the winter meetings in December.
Seattle and Minnesota are probably off his talk list and little dealing is done with AL East teams between themselves.
Scott Downs should be on my list of Free Agents I’m intrigued by this winter.
It’s very possible he could be this year’s Juan Cruz. A couple of years ago Cruz entered free agency with a great resume and should have been on a lot of teams’ wishlists but he was Type A and offered arbitration and so no one would deal for him and surrender draft pick compensation.
He ended up (I believe) accepting arbitration from Arizona and then Arizona traded him for a prospect (or prospects). That way the team could hold onto their pick and still get him. Could be that the same thing happens with Downs this year.
Only flip to that being, if the Yankees (or some other team) signs enough Type A players that they don’t really care at that point about surrendering a third or fourth round pick to get Downs or a team loses a Type A of their own and therefor has extra first round picks (For example – if Boston loses Beltre they can sign Downs and it would essentially be a wash)
SJ –
Just curious on your opinion about something. I have been trying to come up with some scenario by which the Yankees could trade for Brandon Morrow. At this point I’m even willing to see them take on the Vernon Wells contract to make it happen – my logic being that I believe in 2 or 3 years Morrow will be listed as one of the elite young arms in this game.
Curious about your thoughts on him.
The Yanks have a good system right now. There are a few other players that could easily be in the top 10. The last few spots are pretty interchangeable.
Chip November 3rd, 2010 at 2:54 pm
On the non-Yankee front:
I’m interested in seeing what deals a few guys get:
Adrian Beltre
Carl Pavano
Miguel Tejada
Manny Ramirez
Rick Ankiel
Brandon Webb
………………………………………
Chip :
I can agree with all your projections except Manny Ramirez. It’s difficult to think that the Rays would give him that kind of money when they’re so payroll conscious. He’s now a liability in the field and the Rays are flexible enough to have DH types on the cheap.
Their fans would go ballistic thinking that Carl Crawford is gone and Manny is hauling in $10M.
Brandan Morrow is untouchable.
The Jays have no desire to trade him and the Yankees have no desire to take on Vernon Wells contract.
In addition, the Jays won’t deal with the Yankees.
The last thing they would want to do is deal any player of value to a division rival.
SJ -
Forget the viability of getting Morrow – I completely understand that it’s a pipedream (which as you know has never stopped me)
I’m curious on whether or not you think he will emerge as one of the elite arms in this game in a couple of years.
108 -
I think that the Rays are going to need the offense Manny would provide in their lineup and 1 year 10 mil is a lot less than the 6 or 7 years at 15 mil that Crawford is likely looking for. Also I think less than 10 mil and Manny just goes home.
As for Tampa’s fans…what fans?
Thanks SJ!
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 2:49 pm
You could very well be right Wave! Kind of a reach though for someone to give up cost controlled OF for expensive vets.
One important consideration in the Jeter negotiations might be “deferred money” which would give the Yankees the payroll flexibility to address other areas of need.
It would make Jeter look good in the eyes of the fans and organization and give him a long term commitment. I think he could easily agree to something like this – I don’t imagine he has any cash flow problems.
I don’t think a six year deal is out of the question if it were structured something like this.
2011 – Playing year 1 ($15,000,000)
2012 – Playing year 2 ($14,000,000)
2013 – Playing year 3 ($13,000,000) = $42,000,000
(retirement)
2014 – Special consultant, instructor and Yankee ambassador ($10,000,000)
2015 – Special consultant, instructor and Yankee ambassador ($9,000,000)
2016 – Special consultant, instructor and Yankee ambassador ($8,000,000) = $27,000,000
Total value of seven year contract – $69,000,000
If Morrow keeps at his current pace, and stays healthy, there is a good chance he becomes one of the better RH starters in the league.
“You could very well be right Wave! Kind of a reach though for someone to give up cost controlled OF for expensive vets.”
My theory on that is that the Yanks could keep throwing good minor league pitchers into the deal until the target team can’t resist.
RayVT November 3rd, 2010 at 3:21 pm
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 2:49 pm
You could very well be right Wave! Kind of a reach though for someone to give up cost controlled OF for expensive vets.
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Depends what you include with the expensive vet and also what good young cost controlled OF you’re going after.
I personally consider Granderson a good, young cost controlled vet and so I wouldn’t trade him this winter.
But if I could package Swisher with a couple of high end (non-Montero) prospects and get back a Colby Rasmus I would do it in a heartbeat.
WCYF-
No way.
Apparently the fight over Cliff Lee is over before it really began.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/bl.....mlb-282258
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 3:27 pm
Possibly could work of course, and may even happen. It is fun to speculate, and I wonder about Swish’s knee.
Ray & Wave -
Sample trade:
St. L gets: Swisher, Laird, Brackman
NYY get: Colby Rasmus
St. Louis gets a good, veteran RF and presence in their lineup and removes a player that Pujols and TLR can’t stand. In addition they get a high impact arm who could join their rotation right as Chris Carpenter is leaving it and a potential power bat at 3b
NYY get a high impact young corner OF.
I really hope that 27 million over 3 years after Jeter retires is in packs of strident layers and not dollars.
Chip, I don’t think that package gets you Rasmus, unfortunately. It’s sort of, here St. Louis, take our worries, ifs and maybes, and give us a young superstar.
I doubt a blockbuster happens, but if it does, it will take the best to get the best.
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 3:29 pm
WCYF-No way.
************
Why? Forgetting about the exact annual numbers which I just took a shot at, isn’t the concept of deferred money possible? Or no?
BloggingBombers The idea that Jeter would want 6 years isn’t crazy, given that ARod is signed through age 42. I don’t think Jeter would DEMAND that, though.
BloggingBombers If you’re Jeter, wouldn’t you start by asking for the moon, then “settle” on a four-year deal worth about $80 million?
Here is my Take on Jeter…3 Years 12 million a year and a 30 Million Dollar bonus for reaching 3,000 hits as a Yankee…The bonus doesn’t figure in to payroll.
So Lee stopped to buy some cowboy boots as a keepsake from his time in Texas?
WCYF-
Leaving aside the amounts (which IMO are too high), the problem with deferred money is that in the current economic climate deferring payments doesn’t save you much money with current interest rates approaching zero.
They will pay Jeter at least 15 million dollars a year and probably closer to 20…..probably for 3 or 4 years. It wont affect their pursuit of Cliff Lee so im not going to lose sleep worrying about it.
blake November 3rd, 2010 at 3:42 pm
They will pay Jeter at least 15 million dollars a year and probably closer to 20…..probably for 3 or 4 years. It wont affect their pursuit of Cliff Lee so im not going to lose sleep worrying about it.
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Exactly.
Jeter and Mo are a separate issue entirely.
Lee, Werth, Crawford are interconnected but none of them are tied to what the team does with Jeter and Mariano.
isn’t AJ making 16? How could they pay Jeet less than AJ?
If the Yankees sign Jeter for any day longer than he can handle playing SS they are extemely foolish.
LGY -
How long is that?
“isn’t AJ making 16? How could they pay Jeet less than AJ?”
If you follow that argument to its logical conclusion, a lot of players are going to be making $16M+ then.
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 3:41 pm
WCYF-Leaving aside the amounts (which IMO are too high), the problem with deferred money is that in the current economic climate deferring payments doesn’t save you much money with current interest rates approaching zero.
*******
It’s beneficial in terms of cash flow and increasing the luxury tax payment.
sic – decreasing the luxury tax payment
BloggingBombers People need to realize that the Jeter contract will be as much (if not more) of a business deal as a baseball deal. Jeter is good business.
WYH
point taken…but still, we are talking the face of the franchise
Wave Your Hat November 3rd, 2010 at 3:41 pm
WCYF-Leaving aside the amounts (which IMO are too high), the problem with deferred money is that in the current economic climate deferring payments doesn’t save you much money with current interest rates approaching zero.
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It’s Wimpy-nomics:
By deferring money the Yankees are saying that they will gladly pay Derek tomorrow for games he plays today.
That way if the team is structured to have a 200 mil payroll and Derek wants 20 mil a year the team can give him 15 mil now and the other five later so that they can still have an extra 5 mil to play with this year.
(and if you didn’t get the Wimpy reference you need to brush up on your Popeye)
“It’s beneficial in terms of cash flow and increasing the luxury tax payment”
In an economic climate where interest rates approach zero, the near term cash flow benefit is almost exactly offset by the long term cash flow detriment. So there’s little or no net benefit.
The same argument holds true for the luxury tax. And, with the new CBA approaching, the Yanks are probably worried about the luxury tax going up.
Economics class is now over for today.
Chip
I would say 3 years is the absolute max the Yankees should go to.
practically half the Mariners roster has been placed on waivers or outrighted.
hell, at this point they may even waive the Space Needle.
if so, I hope the Yanks put a claim on it. (sorry CompassRosy, but I think it would look awesome in the Bronx.)
“It’s Wimpy-nomics:”
With Wimpy, you got the feeling that the Tuesday payment was sketchy at best. Not so with the Yanks, which changes the entire analysis of course.
Great article about the O’neill trade.
“O’Neill hit a whopping .317/.397/.517 during his first six years in pinstripes”
http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....nt-1285518
It’s always preferable to pay later rather than now. Whether negotiations couch it as a bonus for a milestone, special consultant or something else, it’s a way to keep Jeter happy by paying him money down the road as opposed to now.
LGY November 3rd, 2010 at 3:56 pm
Chip
I would say 3 years is the absolute max the Yankees should go to.
——————————
And if Derek won’t go for less than 4 – are you prepared to walk away? More importantly – if you’re Brian Cashman, Hal, Hank, Levine etc…how do you respond to the blowback that would come from letting an iconic Yankee walk away over 1 year?
Sigh…
Two quick thoughts.
I’ve always felt that how the Yankees deal with Jeter and Mariano will follow a slightly different path than how they’ll deal with other free agents; I believe they’ve been looking at this for a while (it hasn’t taken them by surprise that these two contracts were coming due).
I also believe that the Yankees have nothing to gain by talking about their budget publicly. Hal saying that the budged will probably be around the same level as this year is a very convenient comment; it answers the question without being specific. In addition, if he ever said, we will spend whatever is necessary, can you imagine what the demands would be?
The Yankees must and are very good at playing things close to the vest. I never give a thought to their finances because even if I know what every player on the team is set to make; even if I know about what they earn from various sources (or if I could find it out), I will never know what their cut-off is; I will never have access to everything they have access to when working out their spending plan.
I don’t think they’ll go way over what they’ve spent this season, but I don’t think the Yankees are in the habit of locking themselves in a corner over money for the right player under the right circumstances.
I think it’s entirely possible that the Jeter negotiations are going to be more contentious than some might think. Just a gut feel, nothing more than that, based in part on my perception of Hal as a tough businessman.
If so,I hope both sides keep it behind closed doors and are willing to be creative and think outside the square to get a deal done. He’s certainly the furthest thing from an average free agent as you can find.
The downside to both parties if this were to blow up is substantial.
Hardwired -
The players the Mariners declined options on stunk.
Maybe there’s some value in Erik Bedard but not much.
Why are people looking to get creative this year with the finances by delaying Jeters payments?
The Yankees don’t have really anymore payroll flexibility going forward and it may actually be worse in the coming years trying to patch holes as Alex Tex etc get older.
The Yankee commitment to Jeter needs to be fully paid and off the books as quickly as possible.
WCYF -
I don’t think it will be problematic. Hal’s a reasonable man, Cash is reasonable, and Jeter’s reasonable. They all know what’s what.
Derek isn’t going to get as much as he would like, but he knows the Yankees aren’t going to try to embarass him.
The Yankees know they’re going to overpay Jeter based on what a 37-year old short stop should get, but that it’s something they need to do.
In the end: 4 years, $80 mil and a mutual option for a 5th at an additional 20 (which the Yankees would decline)
Chip
There is no circumstance where I would commit more than 3 years to Derek. His bat does not play at DH or the OF.
Realistically what blowback would there be?
Derek has substantially more to lose than the Yankees do in these negotiations.
LGY,
there’s no way to know how much longer he can play SS. You make a deal that makes both sides happy and then handle the rest as it comes…..if the negociations turn ugly then it benefits neither side.
What people overlook in the Jeter analysis is that Jeter’s value as a ballplayer, and Jeter’s brand value, are highly correlated. That is to stay, as long as Jeter is good, he will be attractive off the field as well, but if he doesn’t play well, his brand value will decline as well.
That interrelationship makes for a tricky negotiation from the Yanks point of view.
Doreen -
The reason the Yankees talk about a budget is because they don’t want agents using Yankee dollars to artificially inflate other players.
The Yankees want no part in Scott Boras telling another team that the Yankees are interested in Adrian Beltre so that he can get a few million more – and so they talk about a budget so that teams know “look, we know we can sign everyone under the sun; but we have no plans to. You know our payroll, you know what our commitments are – you figure out whether or not this person is someone we really have interest in.
As long as the Yanks win all blowback can be managed.
BloggingBombers People need to realize that the Jeter contract will be as much (if not more) of a business deal as a baseball deal. Jeter is good business.
—————
What that last sentence should read is, “Jeter is a good business man.”
MissKateGordon Watching @NickSwisher get a shave for @movember to change the face of mens health! http://plixi.com/live/movember
WCYF:
I don’t think Hal will be an active participant in the jeter and Mo contracts. Cashman has his marching orders and will proceed, when the contract gets down to the nitty gritty Hal will have to sign off on it.
Bottom line is Cashman knows the plan, handles all the grunt work and will be the buffer between Jeter / Mo. Hal is a smart guy and doesn’t want to be in the middle if the grenade goes off.
very true, Chip. slim pickings there.
at some point it may behoove them to spin King Felix into 3 stud everyday players and some viable prospects. otherwise, by the time they reach relevancy again, Hernandez’s best years may have come and gone.
they could potentially make out even better than they did w/Randy Johnson (and that was a nice haul.)
Chip – I highly doubt an option will be installed on a deal for Jeter. It would put the Yankees in a tough spot depending on his performance. I don’t think you risk putting an option on there you don’t intend to pick up.
LGY November 3rd, 2010 at 4:12 pm
Chip
There is no circumstance where I would commit more than 3 years to Derek. His bat does not play at DH or the OF.
Realistically what blowback would there be?
Derek has substantially more to lose than the Yankees do in these negotiations.
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Well I think you and the Yankees have very different opinions on this.
As for blowback:
1. a firestorm of negative press
2. potential backlash at the ticket booth
3. worse case scenario – Yankee fans become Met fans.
As for Derek having more to lose – Derek Jeter will always be more popular than Yankee ownership. If Derek’s demanding 6 years 30 mil per that’s one thing, but if all that separates him and the Yankees is 1 year there is no way that the majority of Yankee fans (this one included) would side with ownership over Jeter.
Would it be a great baseball move to give him 4 years? No. But if you want to talk about the right pure baseball move then I’m not sure you re-sign him at all.
Blake
There is no way to know for certain but each year tacked on carries more and more risk to it that he can no longer handle the position.
The Yankees can’t have a 15 to 20 million dollar utility player on their hands 4 or 5 years ago.
I would say 3 years is stretching the length he is still at short but since it is Derek I would accept that risk.
New Post: How many years for Derek Jeter?
Chip -
Absolutely – that’s what I was talking about when I said what possible good could come of the Yankees being specific about their budget, or even indicating whether they’re in “spend” mode.
Kay said some interesting things regarding Jeter yesterday (crazy I know). He said yankee people have told him that they are just going to trust Jeter to do the right thing because he always has. He knows that a big dispute over money would do nothing but harm his image and standing with Yankee fans. I just think both sides are too smart and too allow this to be a big deal.
The Yankees were up to $213 million roughly at the end of this year. Which means in addition to Vazquez’s $11.5 million coming off the books, also take out Wood’s and Berkman’s contracts with I think total roughly another $25 million.
This leaves the Yankees with approzimately $33-37 million available to spend on free agents, depending the arbitration raises and the contracts of Jeter, Rivera, and Pettitte.
We expect Lee, if he comes to NY, to get approx $25 million per so why wouldn’t the Yankees be willing to push the $210+ button again by adding another player (outfielder or set-up man) for somewhere around $7-8 million per year? It’s definitely something that is within their capability…
108 stitches November 3rd, 2010 at 1:37 pm
“I’d also like to see what Rene Rivera looks like in spring training as an option over Cervelli unless Cashman finds a good backup catcher using some of the expendable pieces in the farm system.”
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Romine is second on the depth chart for catcher behind Montero
I would give Jeter 6 years and as much money as he likes! After 3 Years you have mutal options ! So Jeter can retire and everythings fine!