The “best” of the rest
Posted by: Sam Borden - Posted in Misc on Nov 10, 2010 
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I’ve gotten a lot of emails from people asking about who the Yankees might turn to if they don’t sign Cliff Lee as their big offseason pitching acquisition and the short answer is “no one nearly as good.”
This free agent class isn’t particularly compelling overall and when you look at the starting pitchers available it’s particularly underwhelming. Good buddy Jeff Passan from Yahoo! Sports does an annual free agent tracker and if you peruse the top end of his listings you’ll see that the starting pitchers – save for Lee – are incredibly unappetizing.
I don’t necessarily agree with all of Jeff’s rankings but the gist this: After Lee, you’re talking about guys like Hiroki Kuroda, Jake Westbrook and – gulp – Carl Pavano.
The Yankees have been pretty tight-lipped about Lee and any contingency plans should the pursuit of him fall through, but lately you hear more rumblings that the Yankees would look internally to fill out their rotation should Lee opt to go elsewhere. In other words, a rotation like Sabathia, Hughes, Pettitte, Burnett and whoever wins the fifth spot in spring training (Ivan Nova?) would be a real possibility. If Pettitte chooses to retire, things get a little more dire.
Of course, there’s also the trade market (and no, I’m not including Zack Greinke in this discussion – there’s been zero indication he would want to come to the Yankees) but you’d have to think the Yankees wouldn’t be able to get any kind of impact name in a deal.
Short story long? If the Yankees want a big stud for their pitching staff, they better get Lee. Because the alternative – whoever it is – is pretty darn unappealing.
* That’s an AP photo of Carl Pavano’s mustache.
Idle looks really stupid with that mustache.
UGHHHHHH Pavano
YankeesWFAN RT @YankeesPR: Teixeira to be honored at 16th Annual Lou Gehrig Sports Awards Benefit Thur nite at NY Marriott Marquis for tix: 212-245-6570
Congrats Tex!!
LGY,
I.answered you in the prev. Thread.
Congrats to Tex, per Erin.
Also, Erin, agree – he (Pavano) doesn’t just look stupid, but it looks like some drew it on his face to make him look stupid (and sinister!).
Even if Carl Pavano had the best year of ALL pitchers last season, the Yankees would need to resist any temptation to bring him back. But I don’t think it’s a worry. As an aside, yesterday I heard part of an interview with Pavano and he stated he would love to go back to Minnesota.
I was with my son in Saks the day after the Yanks beat Idle in the playoffs, and we saw the big dork there….nice mustache!
Doreen-you’re right, it does like someone drew it on him!
Blake
The Yankees were exactly middle of the pack in GB%.
They came in at 15th in MLB.
Dirty Sanchez
Pavano actually would have been a good plan B for Pettite’s spot in the rotation if he were to retire, that is of course if circumstances were different.
LGY,
What rank.we’re.they in the AL and what rank were the A’s and ChiSox?
forget about pavano. as long as he has that facial hair, he does not qualify as a yankee.
My guess is that if the Yankees wiff on Lee you’ll see Brian look less at free agents than at the trade market.
I swear he looks like Rollie Fingers. He just needs to add the “handlebars”
http://26.media.tumblr.com/tum.....o1_400.jpg
Force the locker room to accept Pavano.
No way to Pavano. I wouldn’t sign him if he agreed to play here for free. Greinke has already said that he probably wouldn’t agree to play here, so I doubt thats he is even an option. Plus he would cost too much and I’m not convinced that he would be able to pitch in NY. If we miss out on Lee, I would probably go with Kuroda or De La Rosa, and I would spend a ton of time trying to convince Pettitte to come back.
So, to recap:
Today’s announcement that Jorge will be the team’s primary DH puts to rest (I think) any talk of bringing in a Matsui, Damon, Giambi, Thome or Branyan.
Two spots on the bench will go to Cervelli and Nunez and the other two will go to:
1. a 4th OF
2. a veteran bat with bench experience (think Marcus Thames)
The Yankees will not under any circumstances go after Carl Pavano. Pavano could offer to pay the Yankees and the Yankees would still walk away.
I’m pretty sure that’s a photo of Luigi from Super Mario Brothers…but you never know.
Dylan November 10th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
and I would spend a ton of time trying to convince Pettitte to come back
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I think CC’s got that one covered. I remember reading something a few weeks ago where CC said he’s going to be bugging Andy all winter to come back.
Dylan -
Kuroda does nothing for me and de la Rosa spooks me – he has Ollie Perez all over him.
Andy’s going to do what he’s going to do – the Yankees don’t need to spend time convincing him to come back. He knows what the offer is.
This is why failure should not be an option.
It’s entirely possible that if the Yankees miss on Lee and Andy comes back they’ll just go with:
CC, Hughes, Andy, AJ, Nova and hope that one of their high impact young pitchers is ready to make that impact by either mid season or next year.
Blake
A’s 2nd, WS 4th, Yankees 6th, Rangers 14th.
2.2% seperate the A’s and Yankees.
Actually –
A fall back for New York could be the same player I mentioned in a potential deal with the Rangers yesterday – and that’s Fausto Carmona.
Chip,
If.they were to miss on Lee and Andy comes back then I think they may just stand pat with the rotation and look to improve in other areas…..if neither one of them are signed.then I think they may have to.make a move for a starter. Which is why as MTU said, failure is not an option and.why Cashman is in Arkansas right now.
Rangers 13th not 14th.
Pavano will end up with the Rangers after losing out on Cliff Lee.
LGY,
So what do we make of that? Maybe those teams have SS’s with better range, maybe they also have pitching staffs that allow their infielders more chances…maybe a little of both? All ground balls aren’t created equally either….some are hit harder, some are placed better. Just a lot of things to sort through to draw a conclusion IMO.
blake November 10th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Chip,
If.they were to miss on Lee and Andy comes back then I think they may just stand pat with the rotation and look to improve in other areas…..if neither one of them are signed.then I think they may have to.make a move for a starter. Which is why as MTU said, failure is not an option and.why Cashman is in Arkansas right now.
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Blake –
I tend to agree. They can go into the season with Nova in the rotation and hope that Phelps, Noesi or one of the killer B’s impresses enough to get a call up.
If they miss out on Lee and Andy retires – I think they could work out a deal with the Indians for Carmona or the Brewers for Wolf
# Erin November 10th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
I think CC’s got that one covered. I remember reading something a few weeks ago where CC said he’s going to be bugging Andy all winter to come back.
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I think that we will see Andy come back for another year. I can’t imagine him retiring when Posada has one year left on his contract, and Mo could very well retire soon. This should be the last year of the core four. Plus, how could he possibly say no to CC?!
Chip-
I don’t think there’s much chance it happens but if the Yankees lost out on Lee and AP retired they would be in deep Voo Doo.
That is the worst case scenario.
That would pretty force their hand on a major trade.
Fortunately, it’s very, very unlikely IMO.
I really think the rotation will be CC, Lee, Hughes, Pettite, AJ.
I don’t see them letting Lee get away and I have a feeling Andy is going to want one more shot at another ring.
Do you think the Yanks would take a chance on Ollie Perez? The Mets would pay 95% of the remaining salary. He has good stuff and he was on their radar when he was on the Pirates. I don’t think it could happen but Ollie would love to stick it to the Mets.
# Chip November 10th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
Dylan -
Kuroda does nothing for me and de la Rosa spooks me – he has Ollie Perez all over him.
Andy’s going to do what he’s going to do – the Yankees don’t need to spend time convincing him to come back. He knows what the offer is.
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Personally, I think that Andy is going to come back. Either way though, I think we need to add another pitcher, because I don’t trust Burnett at all, Pettitte may not make it through the entire season IF he comes back, and we don’t know how good Nova is. I’m not crazy about Kuroda or De La Rosa, but I think they are the best of the rest, in an awful free agent class of pitchers. Kuroda is probably more of a realistic option, because I read that De La Rosa is looking for a five-year deal, and like you said he could very well turn into Ollie. I guess we could also trade for someone using our minor league catchers and pitchers, but I’m not sure if there is anyone worth trading for. I would rather not give up another good prospect in a Javy Vazquez type deal.
“Maybe those teams have SS’s with better range, maybe they also have pitching staffs that allow their infielders more chances”
By those teams, do you mean every team? At the SS position, the Yankees ranked last in the AL in balls fielded, assists and were 12th in putouts (last in putouts where the ball was caught in the air).
I think Posnaknski had it right in saying that Jeter’s been awarded his Gold Glove a) as acknowledgement/respect from the managers and coaches who see him as a guy who has long played the game the way it should be played, and b) in the absence of any truly outstanding Vizquel-like candidates. Certainly makes as much sense as anything I’ve read on the topic today.
Blake-
CC,AP, and CL might just be the best group of three lefties on the same staff ever assembled.
Completely neutralizes the short porch thru 3/5′s of the rotation.
A huge competitive advantage.
Saves the BP.
It’s too good to pass up.
Let’s see:
Lee signs 1st for 23M/year, same as CC’s annual salary X 5yrs with club option for 6th.
Rivera signs 2nd for 15M, same as last 3 years X 1 year, club option 2nd.
Pettitte signs 3rd for 12.5M for one year to retire with Posada[ bump up from 11.75M]
Steinbrenner gave Cashman 70 million to spend-144M guaranteed salaries + 70M=214M-close to last year.
23+15+12.5=50.5M. So to even it off the Yankees have almost 20M to spend on Jeter, arbitration cases, the bench, another bullpen arm.
Sound about right??
Trader,
Yup, sounds about right….so payroll is going up unless Pettite retires or Lee signs elsewhere. How much it goes up depends on what they pay Jeter and how much they alot to bench, bullpen, etc…
MTU-
3 lefties might also cut down on stolen bases.
MTU,
If Hughes duplicates or bests his 2010 season and AJ rebounds then that rotation could be unreal. I think AJ will be somewhat better next year as he’s never been that bad before and he can’t be much worse.
Last 3 opening day Yankee payrolls, per Cot’s:
Opening Day payrolls
(Major League contracts plus pro-rated signing bonuses):
2010: $213,359,389
2009: $201,449,189
2008: $209,081,577
I betting the opening day payroll for 2011 is close to 220….
NL Gold Glove winners: Pujols 1B; Phillips 2B; Rolen 3B; Tulo SS; Carlos Gonzalez OF; Victorino OF; Bourn OF; Y. Molina C; Arroyo P
Blake-
Phil Hughes w/o an innings limit is a dangerous man.
I’m less confident about predicting what AJ will or will not do.
One thing that rotation would likely do is give you a ton of innings.
Even if AJ can just stay healthy as #5 he gives you length.
It almost renders most concerns about the makeup of the BP moot.
Blake-
Burnett’s ERA was 5.26 and team scored 4.30 runs in his outings. If he gets close to the other pitchers support CC[5.68 runs],Pettitte[6.0 runs], Hughes[6.48 runs], he should be at least a .500 pitcher.
Blake-
JMO but when comes to essential team needs like obtaining Lee I think the budget cieling is “soft”.
The professional athlete who will take less money to give his team a better chance to win is a rare breed, but they exist (LeBron/Wade?).
Cliff Lee is about to get his first and perhaps last mega-payday, so I don’t see him wanting to take any less than he can get. But who knows. Over $20 million + best chance to win + playing with buddy CC could help him choose NYY even if others are close with their offers.
But I wonder if Captain Jeter would consider taking $2 or $3 million less than he thinks he’s worth so that the Yankees can have a better shot to get Lee and still sign a decent bench.
His agent would probably advise against it for % reasons. And I can see any potential Yankee not wanting to take a penny less just so Hal can meet some arbitrary (from the player’s POV) budget.
Tricky issue.
Yankee Trader November 10th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
Blake-
Burnett’s ERA was 5.26 and team scored 4.30 runs in his outings. If he gets close to the other pitchers support CC[5.68 runs],Pettitte[6.0 runs], Hughes[6.48 runs], he should be at least a .500 pitcher.
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AJ can help himself by not putting his team in a multi-run hole out of the gate so opposing pitchers don’t go into cruise control mode.
Nick-
Quite a few star NBA players have either taken less, by restructuring their contracts to encourage/help ownership surround them with a nucleus of players to vie for a championship. I hope Lee is signed first, followed by Rivera and Pettitte.
The Yankees will have a new pitching coach by the end of the week and hopefully it’s Gil Patterson.
Regardless of who it is, their biggest challenge is to get Burnett straightened out followed by Chamberlain if he isn’t dangled in a deal.
pat-
Thanks for the NL GG update. Seems like all were deserving. Happy for Tulowitski.
The NBA has a harder salary cap, so it’s a little different.
I wonder if Andy would be willing to go back to some IP incentives.
That’s exactly right that his agent would advise against that, he wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t. The Yankees are worth $1.6 billion dollars – no reason to even consider that.
The Yankees will have a new pitching coach by the end of the week and hopefully it’s Gil Patterson.
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Would Harkey stay on, since he was vying for the position?
Interesting side note on Gil Patterson. In 1977 Carl Yastrzemski said he was the best young pitcher he’d seen in the AL in some time.
Please…no Carl Pavano…that experience was painful enough the first time around.
WCYF-
Patterson was drafted by the New York Yankees as the 7th pick of the 1975 June Secondary Draft. He made his debut on April 19, 1977 with the Yankees. Patterson would only pitch in ten games for New York, having one win, with two loses. He continued to pitch in the minor leagues, but did not return to the majors.
Carl Pavano = good lesson for all drivers. Don’t drive drunk or don’t drive while hooking up with chicks. Could get you killed.
New Post: NL Gold Glove winners and the rest of the awards schedule
“Interesting side note on Gil Patterson. In 1977 Carl Yastrzemski said he was the best young pitcher he’d seen in the AL in some time.”
Must of had him confused with Guidry.
Jeff Francour just became a free agent. What do you guys think about him as a fourth outfielder? His biggest negative is that he struggles against right-handed pitching, but thats fine because he would probably be replacing Granderson or Gardner against tough lefties.
going to be ill…talking about Pavano,Perez,Kuroda, De la rosa
rather see them try joba again
# joeman November 10th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
rather see them try joba again
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Me too but that ship has sailed and now he’s a reliever for the rest of his career
Joba should be given the opportunity to earn a rotation spot if there is a hole to fill. He has been a starter his whole life. The fact that he has been a reliever last season should not relegate him to that role for his career. He still has potential to be a solid starter (Potential to be as good as any other option other then Lee). Also interesting to point out if Kyle Farnsworth was anywhere close to being reliable, Joba simply would have just developed like a normal young starting pitcher.
# Mike Peeps November 11th, 2010 at 10:36 am
Joba should be given the opportunity to earn a rotation spot if there is a hole to fill. He has been a starter his whole life. The fact that he has been a reliever last season should not relegate him to that role for his career. He still has potential to be a solid starter (Potential to be as good as any other option other then Lee). Also interesting to point out if Kyle Farnsworth was anywhere close to being reliable, Joba simply would have just developed like a normal young starting pitcher.
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True he should be given the opportunity to start if a hole opens up but he won’t be given that opportunity. The Yankees are dead set in signing Lee and bringing Andy back. You’re right if Farnsworth was decent then the pressure to bring Joba up would not have been so strong. Also if the Yankees did a better job at developing relievers any idea of making him a BP would have been moot