Dreaming of best-case scenarios
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 18, 2010 
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There is no such thing as a can’t-miss, top-of-the-rotation starter on the free agent market. The closest thing — other than Andy Pettitte — might be Carl Pavano, and that’s a tough sell for the Yankees for many, many reasons. One thing the Yankees might try is a high-risk, high-reward, low-dollar signing. They’ve already added Mark Prior on a minor league deal, and one of these starters could have significant upside to go with a small price tag and a large injury risk.
Justin Duchscherer
Left hip impingement
Duchscherer has been an all-star starter and an all-star reliever, but a series of injuries have limited his career through seven DL stints. Most recently, a hip injury that wouldn’t quite go away required surgery in early June, limiting Duchscherer to five good starts with the A’s. He previously missed all of 2009 because of elbow surgery and depression, but in 2008 he had a 2.54 ERA in his first full season as a starter.
Jeff Francis
Shoulder inflammation
A shoulder injury began causing problems in 2008. It cost Francis all of 2009 and landed him on the disabled list twice in 2010. He’s had surgery, and last season he kept battling soreness. Francis was a pretty promising young pitcher with the Rockies in 2007, but he’s had an ERA above 5.00 his past two seasons. If he’s healthy, maybe he could bounce back. His best years haven’t been as good as the others on this list.
Noah Lowry
Shoulder, forearm and elbow issues
I wanted to mention Lowry because he technically fits on this list, but the guy hasn’t pitched in the big leagues or minor leagues since 2007. Various things have gone wrong, and he never quite made a comeback last year. He was a good young pitcher with the Giants, but that was a pretty long time ago, and it’s hard to consider him a viable option at this point, even as a long shot.
Brad Penny
Strained right lat
Penny made just nine starts last season before taking his familiar spot on the disabled list, where he also spent much of 2008. Those nine starts were good — he had a 3.23 ERA with the Cardinals — but his rehab didn’t go well enough for him to pitch beyond late May. Penny didn’t pitch well with Boston in 2009, but he finished that season in San Francisco and actually pitched very well for the Giants.
Ben Sheets
Torn elbow tendon
I decided to include Sheets because his name is on various free agent lists, but truth is, Sheets is not a legitimate option. He’s out at least the bulk of this season, probably all of it — maybe the rest of his career — after Tommy John surgery.
Brandon Webb
Shoulder soreness
For three straight years, Webb was among the top pitchers in all of baseball. He was the Diamondbacks Opening Day starter in 2009, and he hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since. Webb tried to avoid surgery in 2009, but finally had a procedure in August of that year and coming back has been a struggle. Like Wang, Webb pitched this fall. If the Yankees want to dream big, the best-case scenario probably doesn’t get much better than Webb, who won the Cy Young in 2006 and finished second in 2007 and 2008. At his best, he was kind of a more dominant version of Wang.
Associated Press photo
I’m all for NYYs making a run on Ricky Nolasco, who the Yanks may match up better without giving up the best in the system.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....talks.html
@MLB Trade Rumors “Marlins, Nolasco Hit Impasse In Contract Talks http://bit.ly/gSiKV5”
Possible #5?
CC, Hughes, Andy, Burnett, Nolasco
Don’t know too much about the guy…how’s his stuff?
And in regards to the post, the only one worth a gamble is Webb, but I think the Yankees need assurance with the rotation.
The Red Sox got Dan Wheeler. According to many Red Sox fans the Red Sox are the best team in baseball and will win the 2011 championship.
LGY should love this.
Greinke said. “But I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric stuff and going into details of stats about what you can control.”
Bannister, a right-handed starter, is known for his appreciation of modern pitching metrics, which emphasize the factors for which pitchers are essentially responsible: walks, strikeouts, home runs and hit batters. In Greinke, he found a like mind.
“He’s extremely bright, and he’s really picked up on using all the information out there to make his game better,” Bannister said by telephone. “He’s always had the talent. His confidence level, which is extremely high, combined with his knowledge of the numbers behind the game now, definitely makes him one of the best pitchers in the world.”
“That’s pretty much how I pitch, to try to keep my FIP as low as possible,” Greinke said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11......html?_r=1
He tries to keep his FIP as low as possible.
GreenBeret7 December 18th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
I’m all for NYYs making a run on Ricky Nolasco, who the Yanks may match up better without giving up the best in the system.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/…..talks.html
– Who do you think the Yankees would have to give up to acquire Nolasco?…any chance the Marlins can throw Leo Nunez in the deal? Then we get a viable #5 and a BP arm…could make Joba expendable for further moves.
Whats wrong with the Yankees not making a big move this offseason and begin the process of developing young players for the next run?
The Yankees have had a nice run over the last 16 years (5 WS championships, 7 WS appearances and 15 playoff appearances). They did that with a cadre of young players from their own minor league system and then surrounded them with guys like Cone, Key, Raines, Strawberry, Wells, Boggs and, later, Clemens. It might be best if the Yankees took a step back for 2-3 years and begin building the next nucleus.
The Yankees won’t be hurt at the gate because of guys like Jeter chasing 3,000 hits (and then 3,500 hits), ARod chasing 700 HR’s (and then later Bonds record) and Rivera chasing Trevor Hoffman’s save record.
There are many young Yankee fans who can’t imagine a time when the Yankees weren’t the dominant force in baseball, but from time to time that has indeed happened. Baseball learned to survive and the Yankees always came back. I believe the Yankees can begin the retooling process this year and be back within 3 years…at that point the front office will still be able to go after the top free agents to surround our young nucleus.
Nolasco has excellent stuff, close to a K per inning, but he is HR prone in a big park which is a bit of a concern.
If the price tag is modest I have no problem taking a shot at him, but the top guys should nott be used for him.
I still believe Fausto Carmona is maybe the best talent available and I think he would thrive being reunited with CC Sabathia. The price would be high, but not Montero high.
The Red Sawx have done a lot, but I have to question some of it. You have a dominant 8th inning guy in Bard and an established closer and you spend almost $ 10 M for Jenks and Wheeler on top of that? Unless they deal Papelbon there are going to be some disgruntled guys in that bullpen.
By the way, why are unhappy people disgruntled, but happy people aren’t gruntled?? I guess I’m channeling my inner Carlin today
Hi everyone….long-time-ago poster making a hopefully-permanent return, work permitting. Good to see some other long-time-ago names on here!
Anywho, it has to be said. When we’re resorting to the inclusion of guys who haven’t pitched since 07 (Lowry..remember when this blog wanted to trade Matsui for him?) and guys who may never pitch again (Sheets and the aforementioned Lowry), you know we have a pretty serious conundrum on our hands. It would be easier to swallow having some questionable arms in the rotation if we could fortify the bullpen. I’m sure this has already been discussed extensively but did Cash drop the ball on Jenks completely?
I’m vehemently against any trade that involves the Jesus. I’m a big Nolasco fan (and he and Girardi already know each other, no?) so if he could be gotten w/o Montero that’s a no-brainer. To those who follow the minors more closely, how do you gauge Romine’s trade value by comparison to the untouchable Jesus?
I’d say no to Penny. Why would he all of a sudden be able to pitch in the AL now? Doooooosherer seems like the best bet on this list although I’m always troubled by the idea of guys missing work due to depression. “Happiness comes in small doses folks, you smoke your cigarette, you eat your candy bar and then you go to sleep ok?” – Denis Leary
Dee December 18th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
GreenBeret7 December 18th, 2010 at 1:27 pm
I’m all for NYYs making a run on Ricky Nolasco, who the Yanks may match up better without giving up the best in the system.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/…..talks.html
– Who do you think the Yankees would have to give up to acquire Nolasco?…any chance the Marlins can throw Leo Nunez in the deal? Then we get a viable #5 and a BP arm…could make Joba expendable for further moves
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I would think that someone like Romine, Nova/Noesi, Adams and perhaps another young pitcher like Warren or Black for both. Make it two trades and add a couple of million dollars, since anything over $1 mil needs Selig’s approval. I haven’t really looked at what the Marlins need.
Haha, I love that someone just mentioned Carlin right above my Denis Leary quote! As for the Saux, sure they’ve done a lot, but I literally can’t think of a single team for whom buying a bullpen has ever worked out. If there is one, it isn’t coming to mind.
BBB
Good points on the bullpen. More money is blown there than anywhere else. Look what the Yanks will get for the $ 12 M they gave Marte. A great World Series, but little else.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Romulo Sanchez puts up better numbers than Dan Wheeler in 2011.
Nolasco would probably require the Yanks give up Nova or Noesi plus other toys. They really need a LH bat that could play OF and/or 1B but I don’t think the Yanks have one.
Mick -
Most people enjoy talking baseball, even with those of differing thoughts, but, when you talk in this manner, especially with a guy that’s perhaps one of the most negative posters concerning the Yankees, it only leads to arguments on the blog.
If you’re going to make such comments, man up and say who you’re talking about, instead of using that immature statement.
==========================
BIG AL
This was a term that joeman used a while back, wasn’t sure who it referred to but evidently one of them was you?
As far as being negative. That is a relative term. Some people feel anything critical of their Yankees is negative and should not be expressed here.Being critical isn’t always a negative thing, but some can’t tolerate that either. On the other hand,some think the pom pom wavers are obnoxious, so be it…
Some also think arguments are a bad thing but basically they drive the blog and everyday sports talk.
Not all that impressed with Nolasco. His BB and K rates are good, but his HR and hit rates are poor.
The cost would have to be low. I’m not sure that Mitre could not do as well.
I don’t see the upside in paying a #5 starter with a sub 100 ERA+ $6m.
“I guess I’m channeling my inner Carlin today”
You could have fooled me. lol
Did you read my response?
Minorleagueball.com list of top 38 Yankee prospects.
http://www.minorleagueball.com.....spect-list
I did. Was not aware of your background, but the Asperger’s/anxiety parallel still doesn’t make any sense to me.
With there was a way this board would let us send private messages without sharing personal Email info with all.
Nothing is a sure thing as it relates to pitchers. Lee is less if a risk for the next couple of years because he’s a better pitcher right now….he’s also 5 years older…..Cliff Lee could have an injury next season and never be the same, its just the way it is.
A lot of folks don’t want to hear this but at this point in time Greinke is more of a “sure thing” than any pitcher in the Yankee farm system…..including Banelous. Does that mean you trade away the farm to get him……no, but there is always risk with any pitcher.
==================================================
Blake
You agree with me in that they offered their top prospect for Lee so he must be closer to a “sure thing” than Greinke,for whom I don’t think they will offer Montero. Lee, being an Ace.
jpb173
I agree. I think the Yankees need to go back to days of the 90′s. Bringing in more young talent and making smart trades here and there. The Yankees really don’t need to overspend on free agents to win all the time and they don’t need a 200 million dollar payroll.
86
It doesn’t make sense to me either. I was trying to convey the fact that they are different. Obviously I failed. LOL If you want discuss further go back to previous thread.
here is a bit more discussion on Yankee prospects from http://www.minorleagueball.com.....discussion
by John Sickles. just something to kill time.
Ass-Face Syndrome is completely unrelated.
See: Youk.
Montero doesn’t go anywhere unless it is straight up for a potential impact player, or for a top 5 pitcher in the game younger than 30. Not too many of these guys hanging around. So in my world, Montero stays put. A big hell no for Grienke.
If Montero can catch at least as good as Piazza, NYY would be moronic to trade him.
There is no such thing as a sure thing minor leaguer, something that has been parroted by many, but with Montero, his bat is so good you cannot risk moving him without regretting it for the next 10-15 years. Aside from Cano, who else is going to anchor NYY lineup over the next half dozen years? Jeter? Tex? Yeah, right.
Regarding Banuelos, the Yankees have no other LHP of prominence in their systems, they have names and they have prospects, but Banuelos is a guy that if he stays healthy and continues to improve has a chance to become a rotation mainstay for 10 + years and a LH to boot.
mick December 18th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
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Mick -
I don’t know who that person was referring to, but, regardless, I don’t appreciated that type of comment about anyone on the blog, especially coming from him. I really don’t care how he tries to sell it, I think he’s nothing but a troll, with a foul mouth. I choose not to respond to people like him, and those that support him. Have a good day.
AL
You too should have a good day.
One other thing, if Cashman does choose to trade Montero for some BS middle of the pack pitcher , I will officially join the I hate Cashman fan club, begrudeoningly joining the ranks of folks like randy i.
yankee21
I said the same thing. If Cashman trades Montero for some garbage middle of the road pitcher then he should get fired.
“One other thing, if Cashman does choose to trade Montero for some BS middle of the pack pitcher , I will officially join the I hate Cashman fan club, begrudeoningly joining the ranks of folks like randy i.”
If it’s for anything other than a star who is 28 or under, Cash will suck forever.
Who is this garbage middle of the road pitcher you speak of?
Supposedly Brad Penny is in the best shape of his career, whipped into shape by his fiance Karina Smirnoff from Dancing with the Stars. Take it for what it’s worth-he’ll either be in great shape or exhausted!!!
Who is this garbage middle of the road pitcher you speak of?
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Watch out, dare I say someone like a Grienke or Haren?
Good pitchers, not elite. Not difference makers. Halladay and Lee and Felix and Lincecum and CC and maybe even perish the though, Jon Lester, are difference makers, Grienke is not.
Y T
My vote is on exhausted.
Montero was only offered for the likes of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and now people are paranoid Cashman will deal him for a Sergio Mitre or Joe Saunders type rag arm?
Uh, don’t bet on it.
Greinke isn’t a difference maker?
I guess MLB just hands out Cy Young Awards to non-difference makers.
MLB Trade Rumors is having an unadvertised Christmas raffle for a Mariano Rivera signed glove from the 2009 World Series. Register and make one comment between 12 p.m EST, December 18 and 11:59 p.m EST, December 19. Good luck and happy holidays.
Montero was only offered for the likes of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and now people are paranoid Cashman will deal him for a Sergio Mitre or Joe Saunders type rag arm
==============
GF
Uh no just Greinke.
Chad, you’re on fire today!!!!! Real good stuff for a blah Saturday…..
Greinke won the Cy Young two years ago. He is in the very elite class of young pitchers.
None of the injury list pitchers are likely to do anything other than cost money and use up spring training innings. I thinks the odds of one of the 8-9 top prospects succeeding is greater. That being said, I will be very disappointed if Cashman doesn’t find someone with some realistic hope to be an above average starter.
2012 seems to have quite a few interesting FA pitchers , CJ Wilson, Buerhle, Carpenter, Edwin jackson…don’t see the urgency for Grienke when you can buy the cow for free.
Acceptable trade targets involving Montero:
King Felix
Hanley Ramirez
Josh Johnson
But I really don’t want to trade him. Why can’t we be patient rather than embarking on this fool’s errand of having to win the WS every freakin’ year.
“Greinke won the Cy Young two years ago. He is in the very elite class of young pitchers.”
ERA+
2007: 124
2008: 126
2009: 200
2010: 100
One season is not like the others.
Greinke isn?t a difference maker?
I guess MLB just hands out Cy Young Awards to non-difference makers….
————————————————————————————–
Tell me about the rest of Grienke’s career, can we begin with 2010?
Also, can we begin with the knowledge Grienke just hired a new agent which signals this guy is all in for “cashing in” 2 years hence? Is it understood that NYY runs the risk of trading the premier hitting prospect in the MiL, someone who just turned 21 less than a month ago, for a guy who stands a good chance of splitting after 2 seasons? Grienke had an excellent 2009, the rest of his career has been anything but. Sorry, not a difference maker enough for me.
BOS just traded for arguably one of the top 5 1B in the game for the epitamy of hype (Casey K) and some songs (Rizzo and Fuentes). Oh yeah, a PTBNL.., the immortal Eric Patterson..
I want some of that trade if I get a guy like Grienke.
If Montero was in BOS farm system he would already be god and Gammons would be his agent. Can you imagine the hype, can you imagine the yellow teeth espousing the greatness of Montero?
None of those listed by Chad is worth a second’s time of consideration. All except Pavano are worthless, and we all know that Pavano simply is a no-go in Pinstripes. I have to laugh at the rest, particularly Francis, who simply was lucky in 07 and is simply not ML quality.
# yankee21 December 18th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
Greinke isn?t a difference maker?
I guess MLB just hands out Cy Young Awards to non-difference makers….
————————————————————————————–
Tell me about the rest of Grienke’s career, can we begin with 2010?
Also, can we begin with the knowledge Grienke just hired a new agent which signals this guy is all in for “cashing in” 2 years hence? Is it understood that NYY runs the risk of trading the premier hitting prospect in the MiL, someone who just turned 21 less than a month ago, for a guy who stands a good chance of splitting after 2 seasons? Grienke had an excellent 2009, the rest of his career has been anything but. Sorry, not a difference maker enough for me.
BOS just traded for arguably one of the top 5 1B in the game for the epitamy of hype (Casey K) and some songs (Rizzo and Fuentes). Oh yeah, a PTBNL.., the immortal Eric Patterson..
I want some of that trade if I get a guy like Grienke.
If Montero was in BOS farm system he would already be god and Gammons would be his agent. Can you imagine the hype, can you imagine the yellow teeth espousing the greatness of Montero?
————
Never said anything about Montero being traded to the Royals for Greinke. Not. A. Word.
The fact is that Montero has been offered only twice and both times were for elite pitchers.
Secondly, what makes you think KC is going to want Montero in return? We don’t know what they want and we have no idea how they view Montero behind the plate. Never mind they already have a top prospect in their system who is also a catcher.
You claimed Greinke is not a difference maker. A difference maker doesn’t have to be King Felix or Josh Johnson.
A pitcher doesn’t have to be one of the top pitchers in baseball to be considered a difference maker.
Well do any of us know that Greinke can handle New York and the postseason ? Because if not then you can’t claim for certain that Greinke is a difference maker. The guy has the talent but can he hack it here ?
Rich in NJ
I agree. This notion that the Yankees have to win every year is a joke. I think it’s time to play out the season let more of the young guys come up to eventually replace the old veterans.
# Jeremy December 18th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Well do any of us know that Greinke can handle New York and the postseason ? Because if not then you can’t claim for certain that Greinke is a difference maker. The guy has the talent but can he hack it here ?
———-
None of us know how Greinke would fare in NY.
We also don’t have any idea how King Felix would fare in NY. Never pitched in the postseason and has never pitched a meaningful game.
You could play that game with any top pitcher with a bad team. You don’t know how any of them would turn out in a pressure cooker until they are in that situation.
But Greinke is always the guy singled out because of his past issues. He may fare as well as anyone else so it’s stupid to speculate on something none of us can answer definitively.
With all the money the Yankees saved on Lee, they could sign everyone on Chad’s above list and still have money left over.
Seriously, Webb and possibly Duchscherer if they even remotely have a chance to be healthy, are worth it.
If Prior and Webb as comeback projects succeed, even Randy would become a Cashman fan.
GF: my assertion is Grienke is not a difference maker enough to trade a bat like Montero.
At the end of the day, there are very few players I move Montero for.
I’m out of here…..
But Greinke is always the guy singled out because of his past issues. He may fare as well as anyone else so it’s stupid to speculate on something none of us can answer definitively.
=======================================================
They took a flyer on Nick Johnson, how did that work out?
How about bringing Pavano back?
Nobody knows whether Greinke can make it in New York or not.
My gut tells me that if he can make it there, he’ll make it anywhere.
Jesus Christ Moose does not have aspergers and likely neither does Greinke. Looking at Moose’s interviews and suddenly deciding he was blunt and honest because it ‘fits the diagnosis’ is insanity. He had wit, and he didn’t give a canned interview, but that does not mean he just told the truth.
A baseball player with Aspergers would not survive the scrutiny of a major league media. They cannot read their audience and would likely surrender far more sensitive information than anything Moose ever said.
Maybe we bring back Javy if he does well this year…
If Prior and Webb as comeback projects succeed, even Randy would become a Cashman fan
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Not until Livan Hernanez is in Yankee Pinstripes.
I think he wants to be a part of it.
jpb173 December 18th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Whats wrong with the Yankees not making a big move this offseason and begin the process of developing young players for the next run?
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I agree with this concept. It would be crazy to give up Montero or a top young prospects for mediocre players, and then sacrifice the future of the team. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs for one year, but come back with a strong team that can win for years, then that is fine with me.
Chad,
it doesn’t get any more depressing and hopeless than this .
No ?
“You have to read Posnanski’s piece where he talks about how Greinke stares at the sky/ceiling and doesn’t make eye contact in interviews which is a common trait of people with Asperger’s”
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except, ‘not making eye contact’ is also a trait of SAD.
will be honest, am suprised by the lack of knowledge regarding SAD. And i don’t say that disrespectfully. I respect the fact that people aren’t taking shots at Greinke. That said, the last time had checked (5+ years ago) there were an estimated 30 million persons in the US with SAD. Whether this estimate was accurate, i don’t know.
for anyone who would like a simple explanation/definition of what SAD is. It basically is the following: Social Anxiety Disorder is an extreme shyness. Well, lots of people are shy, right? The difference is, persons with SAD have physical effects which accompany their shyness. I expect these physical effects very from individual to individual. Examples of these effects would be Tachycardia (rapid pulse), feeling of heat, blurred vision/wattery eyes (hence the lack of eye contact), and tight/constricted vocal cords.
what isn’t SAD? SAD has nothing to do with insanity, Schizophrenia or any psychotic behavior. In a NYY/Royals telecast David Cone once referred to the condition as ‘mental illness’. Technically, this may be true. However, to dismiss SAD as mental illness, can be very misleading. Because in our society mental illness is equated to being crazy. And people with SAD are most assuredly not crazy. In contrast, SAD is basically an extreme shyness towards certain social situations.
most people have a natural fear of public speaking. If you have a fear of getting up and giving a speech before a group of strangers, this is very similar to what a person with SAD experiences every day of their life in certain social situations. Complete with the previously mentioned physical effects. I hope this description may prove helpful for anyone who doesn’t understand SAD.
If I agree with Jerkface does that make me a JerkTar?
Now while I disagree with the aspergers diagnosis, for many reasons including some of the symptoms being described not really lining up with an aspy, I do agree that Bret has classic OCD.
“If I agree with Jerkface does that make me a JerkTar?”
Don’t know. But whatever it makes you, I’m one too.
Today we are all jerkfaces….
Giuseppe Franco December 18th, 2010 at 2:47 pm
Greinke isn’t a difference maker?
I guess MLB just hands out Cy Young Awards to non-difference makers.
—
That’s the problem on this board. Some people are only thinking “Cy Young Winner”, and completely ignoring his 4.17 ERA last year.
He would very likely be a “difference maker” for the Yankees, because right now our 4/5 starters are Mitre/Nova. But the fact remains his K rate dropped a lot last year, back to previous levels, and he could very well put up another ERA over 4 next year.
Capable of excellent pitching? Sure. On Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, CC Sabbathia, Cliff Lee level? No. Not after last year.
So no way they should trade Montero or Banuelos for him. I’d been fine with a trade for him featuring other minor leaguers and perhaps Gardner and/or Joba.
Bartolo Colon won a Cy Young.
I am Spartajerk.
Rich,
If one averages the ERAnumbers you provided , they average 137.5. That seems, by definition, that he is a significant difference maker. I think most any metric will confirm that.
I’m not expecting any moves to be made until possibly mid-week depending on how holiday festive the hierarchy is toward pulling the trigger on the significant needs.
It’s reaching the point where players need to know where they’ll be in 2011 to make plans for moving / finding homes as many will start another phase of offseason conditioning.
Managers and coaches need to know what they have to work with for player personnel and map out strategy plans for the new season before pitchers and catchers report in just 58 days.
TAR……
Never once did I suggest what the Yanks should trade for Greinke.
People assume Montero off the bat, but we have no idea what Moore would accept.
It doesn’t matter a fig what we are willing to deal him. It only matters what the KC front office thinks since they are holding all the cards.
I also ask this question, does Greinke have to pitch like Roy Halladay or King Felix to be a difference maker?
Uh, no. Andy Pettitte is a difference maker, especially in the postseason, but he’s not an elite pitcher.
You don’t have to be an all world caliber pitcher to be a difference maker.
Nick in SF December 18th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Nobody knows whether Greinke can make it in New York or not.
My gut tells me that if he can make it there, he’ll make it anywhere.
++++++++++++++
But it’s up to him
New York, Neeeeeeeeeeeeeew Yoooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrkkkkkkkkkkk
If one averages the ERAnumbers you provided , they average 137.5. That seems, by definition, that he is a significant difference maker. I think most any metric will confirm that.
–
That seems a bit silly. Since if you average it, the average comes out to be higher than 3 out of the 4 years. He has 1 outlier year and a couple of other nice years.
Greinke is more like a 100-120 pitcher than the 200 Cy Young winner.
Opposing managers spent all of December 2008 gameplanning against a Yankee team with Swisher at 1st and Xavier Nady in RF — then Cash swooped in and got Tex and the league never recovered!
The result: #27.
Bret, give me break already. Zambrano is a nutjob; if you don’t already know that, then I don’t know what to tell you.
“Not until Livan Hernanez is in Yankee Pinstripes.”
Liván Hernández you mean.
the gene for losing golf balls must be connected to the one that can’t spell.
Yank21, completely agree about Montero for Greinke…………if Cash does that, then I will completely lose faith in his vision for this team. This is an aging team with ridiculously burdensome contracts. I’m not saying Montero is a savior – he hasn’t had one at bat in the majors – but you hold onto kids like these.
Alot of nastiness today on this blog
They need to hold onto Montero because he is so good at such a young age. Imagine that Montero could have 8 years in the big leagues and he’d only be 28!
he would still make the yankees average batting line up age ‘younger’ and he’d already have more years than most players dream of.
SAD is an Anxiety Disorder while Asperger’s is a Pervasive Developmental Disorder. How could any clinician EVER confuse SAD with Asperger’s? Not happening. Here are the DSM IV-TR (American Psychiatric Association) definitions of both. SAD is in this post and Asbperger’s in the next.
SAD:
A. A marked or persistent fear of one or more social or performance situations in which the person is exposed to unfamiliar people or to possible scrutiny by others. The individual fears that he or she will act in a way (or show anxiety symptoms) that will be humiliating or embarrassing. Note: In children, there must be evidence of the capacity for age-appropriate social relationships with familiar people and the anxiety must occur in peer settings, not just in interactions with adults.
B. Exposure to the feared social situation almost invariably provokes anxiety, which may take the form of a situationally bound or situationally predisposed Panic Attack. Note: In children, the anxiety may be expressed by crying, tantrums, freezing, or shrinking from social situations with unfamiliar people.
C. The person recognizes that the fear is excessive or unreasonable. Note: In children, this feature may be absent.
D. The feared social or performance situations are avoided or else are endured with intense anxiety or distress.
E. The avoidance, anxious anticipation, or distress in the feared social or performance situation(s) interferes significantly with the person’s normal routine, occupational (academic) functioning, or social activities or relationships, or there is marked distress about having the phobia.
F. In individuals under age 18 years, the duration is at least 6 months.
G. The fear or avoidance is not due to the direct physiological effects of a substance (e.g., a drug of abuse, a medication) or a general medical condition and is not better accounted for by another mental disorder (e.g., Panic Disorder With or Without Agoraphobia, Separation Anxiety Disorder, Body Dysmorphic Disorder, a Pervasive Developmental Disorder, or Schizoid Personality Disorder).
H. If a general medical condition or another mental disorder is present, the fear in Criterion A is unrelated to it, e.g., the fear is not of Stuttering, trembling in Parkinson’s disease, or exhibiting abnormal eating behavior in Anorexia Nervosa or Bulimia Nervosa.
Oops………you hold onto kids like these with the hope that they become the stud you build around. Nothing is guaranteed, but you either have faith in kids like this or you get out of the business.
Asperger’s Syndrome:
The following criterion are from the DSM-IV. Asperger’s disorder is one of five specific “Pervasive Developmental Disorders” listed:
A. Qualitative impairment in social interaction, as manifested by at least two of the following:
* marked impairment in the use of multiple nonverbal behaviors such as eye-to eye gaze, facial expression, body postures, and gestures to regulate social interaction
* failure to develop peer relationships appropriate to developmental level
* lack of spontaneous seeking to share enjoyment, interests, or achievements with other people (e.g., by a lack of showing, bringing, or pointing out objects of interest to other people)
* lack of social or emotional reciprocity
B. Restricted repetitive and stereotyped patterns of behavior, interests, and activities, as manifested by at least one of the following:
* encompassing preoccupation with one or more stereotyped and restricted patterns of interest that is abnormal either in intensity of focus
* apparently inflexible adherence to specific, nonfunctional routines or rituals
* stereotyped and repetitive motor mannerisms (e.g., hand or finger flapping or twisting, or complex whole-body movements)
* persistent preoccupation with parts of objects
C. The disturbance causes clinically significant impairment in social, occupational, or other important areas of functioning.
D. There is no clinically significant general delay in language e.g., single words used by age two years, communicative phrases used by age three years).
E. There is no clinically significant delay in cognitive development or in the development of age-appropriate self-help skills, adaptive behavior (other than in social interaction), and curiosity about the environment in childhood.
F. Criteria are not met for another specific pervasive developmental disorder or schizophrenia.
108 stiches
I’ve now been programmed to expect the big announcemnets not to go the Yanks way. It just feels like that kind of year. In the meantime the whole thing is BORING. I’d have to search long and hard back into the memory bank to remember the Yanks in this type of situation, with so few options.
No word from Andy land. At some point you have to say. Andy it’s been 2 1/2 months since the playoffs ended, can’t fathom that isn’t enough time to make up your mind.
Jacksquat, I agree………good pitcher, but for various reasons, not someone I’m going to trade any of my top prospects for. Not Montero, not Banuelos and not Betances.
Off topic, but the war at the Meadowlands is set for tomm. Geez I hope they can beat Philly and that Eli doesn’t make any dumb mistakes. Time for the G Men to win one of those monster December games. Win and we are in.
Someone get El Duque on the phone.
Mike Ri December 18th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
Alot of nastiness today on this blog
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Lots of closet MD’s posting. I think it’s nasty for the most part anytime except early AM
randy l. December 18th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
“Not until Livan Hernanez is in Yankee Pinstripes.”
Liván Hernández you mean.
the gene for losing golf balls must be connected to the one that can’t spell.
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Nothing about my spelling and lost golf balls is remotely connected. Those are just skills that I was born with.
i have a question that people on the board can certainly answer better than me:
is manny banuelos a better pitcher than casey kelly?
i ask that question from a purely baseball perspective, not what some homer at espn says
Far more absurd than the idea that the Yankees need to win at all costs every year is the idea that the Yankees CANNOT win a World Series with what they have in place right now.
Can someone explain to me how a team returning almost everyone from a 95 win team that was 2 wins from a World Series last year is incapable of winning a World Series this year? The idea that the Yankees NEEDED Cliff Lee to succeed this upcoming year is absolutely ridiculous.
I think Nolasco is a classic change-of-scenery case who would really benefit from the energy of a pennant race. He has AL East quality stuff and has far outpitched his peripherals the past two years. To that end, he almost reminds me of a young Javy Vazquez.
He’d be a nice option for the middle of this rotation and his upside is quite high. There is virtually no reason, given those peripherals, that he couldn’t perform to a 4.00 ERA or better in the American League. Working next to established starters like Sabathia and Pettitte could allow him to couple that ability with some pitching know-how and emerge into a legitimate number 2 starter.
I don’t think Greinke directly to the Yankees makes any sense. But his availability may open up some options for a 3 way trade to get a quality pitcher. Perhaps a deal centered around Gardner and Montero with Geinke going to Florida and Josh Johnson coming to NY.
“Can someone explain to me how a team returning almost everyone from a 95 win team that was 2 wins from a World Series last year is incapable of winning a World Series this year? The idea that the Yankees NEEDED Cliff Lee to succeed this upcoming year is absolutely ridiculous.”
I wouldn’t say we CAN’T win the WS next year, and imho we’ve improved at catcher (Martin, plus Montero getting a shot) and BP with Feliciano. However the competition has improved greatly- namely the Phillies getting Lee.
Step 1- Resign Mo – done
Step 3 Win World Series!!!
/Southpark’d
Monerto’s defensive skills/issues an his bat has been compared to Mike Piazza. His batting skills have so far a lot of similarites, but, he’s a better defensive catcher than Pazza. A catcher with a Piazza like bat and the defensive skills of Jorge Posada would be a close description. For one thing, the only problem is the same as many young catchers…footwork. He has a really good arm and a pretty solidly accurate arm. That’s not at all a bad combination. Everyone talks about how great a catcher Joe Girardi, but he wasn’t that great when he first come up at the age of 24-25. Passed balls, take a look. With pitchers that give Montero a chance, he’ll throw out his share of runners. Unfotunately, that’s not a skill that Yankee pitchers have.
http://www.baseball-reference......jo01.shtml
The term ‘difference maker’ can apply to anyone.
Everybody makes some can of difference in the outcome of a game. Good or bad.
difference maker is simply a bad term to be arguing over and stems from the different ideas each arguing party has of a “difference maker.”
What kind of a difference would Zach Greinke make? In my personal estimations, it’s not a big enough difference to trade away Montero.
KD,
With respect to Banuelos vs. Kelly, one so called expert rated Banuelos the 6th and Kelley the 8th best prospects in the AFL.
With respect to Greinke’s 2009 being an outlier, is your argument we should forget it. I don’t value a player by selecting and excluding stats and years randomly. They all count. He may well be as good or better next year. Certainly, none of us is qualified to say, and those that purport to know, don’t know either. 2009 does certainly tell us he has wonderful ability when harnessed.
thanks austinmac.
kd -
Kelly struggled a bit in his first taste of the upper minors (AA). Too many walks, and really wasn’t dominant at all.
We’ll see what Banuelos does in his first full season in the upper minors in 2011.
Kelly’s rough season probably moves him down a few notches, but top prospects can have tough seasons. The talent is there – whether or not he has crashed into a wall or not, we’ll find out soon enough. A repeat of his 2010 season would pretty much destroy any excitement about him.
This is why perspective is always important – it’s OK to get excited about prospects playing in the lower minors….but once you get to AA, the competition gets much tougher….a place where many exciting prospects fall off of a cliff.
Right now, I’d rate Banuelos higher, personally…we’ll see where they stand at the end of 2011.
There are only so many King Felix or Josh Johnsons out there and NONE of them are bloody likely to be available to the Yankees.
Some people need an ounce of realism in their fantasy GM trade scenarios.
David
The team played very poorly the last 2 months except for the Minn playoff series and they were without Morneau a big piece of their offense. Andy fought through some injuries, but we aren’t sure he is coming back. AJ and Robertson were disasters. The Yankees batters again didn’t showup for the playoffs, lead of course by Nick Swisher. There are a lot of questions on this team this year vrs the team that won 95 games last year.
As far as Cliff Lee he’s gone, why waste any more time on it? It was last weeks news.
I don’t think anyone really expects the Yankees to get King Felix or Josh Johnson. By saying they would only trade Montero/Banuelos for one of those guys they are effectively saying they would never trade Montero/Banuelos.
Patrick
I agree along with those names I’m not sure they have a shot at Grienke either. It’s going to be pretty miserable if the Yanks start next year without a solid staff of SP’er that can take them deep into games.
Geez, how about a spoiler alert, Gary! I DVR’d last week’s news and I was going to watch tonight.
Gary,
Yeah but there’s still some upside to the Yankee staff if the Yanks don’t end up with another starter. Hughes will probably get better. Burnett is being paid like he’s the #2 starter so if he performs to that expectation I think the starters will be fine.
Gary,
I agree the team needs improvements, and played like crap at the end of the year. I’m not pining over Lee, we need more and better pitching to have a quality shot at winning next year, not just a chance.
NEW THREAD
jpb173 December 18th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Whats wrong with the Yankees not making a big move this offseason and begin the process of developing young players for the next run?
Yankees won’t do it. They put Hughes and Kennedy into the 08 rotation and ppl went nuts.
jpb173 December 18th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Whats wrong with the Yankees not making a big move this offseason and begin the process of developing young players for the next run?
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Yankees won’t do it. They put Hughes and Kennedy into the 08 rotation and ppl went nuts.
Bad Idea to count on any of these low risk pitchers. At this point depth in the bull pen should be a priority, i would seriously look into Soriano, and wouldn’t object to paying 3 yr’s for $30M. CC, Andy, Hughes, Burnett, Nova, should be staples, possibly a low risk project mentioned in this article, and a viable starter that won’t require a chip like Montero would create a little more depth. It would be nice to have 8 pitchers battling for 5 spots. Unfortunately Wood was a perfect fit.
I don’t understand why Carl Pavano’s name keeps getting mentioned in this blog. This time as a “tough sell” for the Yankees. It’s a non-starter of course. It’s not just that he and Igawa’s deals are two of the worst 4-year deals for any Yankee player in history…it’s the way he went about it obviously, he was a dog with fleas, a liar, and a baby…please, enough with the Pavano. The Yanks will be fine in the rotation with or without Pettite (MAYBE, I know) but we know if they get off to a crap start that Romine and others will be packaged for someone we aren’t even thinking we can get now…Sox will win 95-100, Yanks will win 95-100…