The danger of assumption and projection
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Notes on Dec 18, 2010 
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At the end of a slow day in baseball, I’ll turn the floor over to Joe Posnanski.
After Derek Jeter and Cliff Lee took their turns in the offseason spotlight — a place where speculation and wild guesswork are disguised as viable forms of analysis — it’s now Zack Greinke’s turn. And no one has covered Greinke as well as Posnanski, who wrote about him again this week:
I don’t know how Zack Greinke would do in New York or Chicago or any other big market. How could I know? But when I see people question his toughness or his psyche — either in direct words on Twitter or, infinitely more annoying, in read-between-the-lines quotes and stories — I guess they don’t know him any better than I do.
Feel free to debate the merits of the Yankees trading for Greinke — would he be worth the prospects, would he thrive in this market? — but that debate must always end with the realization that no one knows for certain.
Posnanski makes the argument that Kansas City might actually be the worst place for him, that pitching in games that matter would actually bring out the best in Greinke, and that a team of superstars would let him blend in rather than standout. Posnanski also acknowledges that, despite all the time he’s spent with Greinke, he can only guess what a move to New York might mean.
I also think it’s possible that the New York Yankees — with all of their money, their background checks, their good scouting and everything else — don’t know Greinke any better than anyone else.
And now a few more links and notes from a quiet Saturday.
• The Red Sox continue to build, signing reliever Dan Wheeler to help in their bullpen. Wheeler, Bobby Jenks and Daniel Bard give Boston some right-handed depth leading into the ninth inning.
• Boston is still reportedly interested in signing an additional left-handed reliever.
• Marcus Thames was being chased by Japanese team earlier this offseason. Now it seems he has some big league clubs interested in using him in left field. The Dodgers have been linked to him, and so have the Orioles. He could still fit for the Yankees as a right-handed corner outfielder, but the team would have to hope that his bat is good enough to make up for his glove.
• Hideki Matsui’s deal in Oakland has a partial no-trade clause that prevents trades to some of the worst teams in the American League. Of course, it’s hard to imagine any of those teams — except maybe the Twins — actually wanting to trade for him midseason.
• From the random, non-baseball events of my life category: This afternoon I put on an old live album called General Admission by the Pat McGee Band, one of my absolute favorites back in college. There’s no point to this paragraph, I’ve just been listening to that CD all day and felt like sharing an underrated band and an underrated album. PMB hit its peak with a studio album called Shine that seemed to come out about seven years too late, after the initial buzz of vaguely similar groups — Dave Matthews Band, Counting Crows, Blues Traveler — had died and given way to lesser forms of pop music.
Not sure what the cost would be for Greinke, without Montero would be nice, but like the article said if he pitched in meaningful games and blended in with the other stars I bet he would thrive in NY
NYY fan in NH December 18th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
Not sure what the cost would be for Greinke, without Montero would be nice, but like the article said if he pitched in meaningful games and blended in with the other stars I bet he would thrive in NY
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I hear what you’re saying but it’s easier said than done to blend in and thrive in NY. This is a place where number 4 and 5 starters get racked over the coals.
So who is the Yankees bridge to Mo? They are not going to sign Soriano for closer money are they? I doubt it. Joba or Robertson. I doubt it.
On Greinke, I am not worried about his mental makeup, I’m sure the Yankees are capable of doing their due diligence and coming to a rational and appropriate conclusion.
I think the much bigger obstacle is our not matching up with Kansas City as well as other teams.
I would love Greinke on the Yankees. I don’t think being in NY or another big city will effect him in a negative way at all.
Re: Soriano
I think they could easily sign Soriano for closer money. The only other way to upgrade the pen is via trade and they need every last chip to grab a starter. I could happen but trading for both a starter and an elite late inning reliever would deplete the farm.
I think that’s something that’s been overlooked when discussing Greinke….everyone seems to focus on the risk and the negatives involved….what if he were great? what if a change of scenery made him better? What if the anxiety issues had no effect on him while he was on the field?.
I would hesitate to include Montero for Greinke because I think they need that young impact bat equally as much as they need another starter but if a deal can reached otherwise I hope they consider it. I love all the young pitching they have stockpiled but the reality is that the odds of any pitcher in the Yankee farm system ever being as good as Greinke is now are pretty slim…..much less developing to the point of winning a CY young award.
Blake,
Maybe the Yankees have faith in Russell, Romine and Gary Sanchez. Jesus Montero can’t play 1st because of Tex and can’t DH because of Arod. Where do you put him? How much higher can his trade value get while the Yankees have immediate needs? He’s a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. It’s not like they would be selling low.
Thanks for the link on Pat McGee aBand. Think you would also like Flickerstick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBrjouvPexY
Bret,
I’m sure the Yankees have some confidence that one of those guys can fill the catcher position but Sanchez is years away. With Montero, you aren’t just talking about someone to catch….you’re talking about the bat. When scouts consistently compare a guy to Frank Thomas, Miguel Cabrera, and Edgar Martinez, then you need to think twice about trading him.
Somewhat of a difficult read on Greinke. His media approach seems like a cross between Mussina and Jeter. He either tells you nothing or by the time the interview is finished he’s very vanilla. He’ll never be accused of giving a Swisher-like interview.
When all is said and done, what he says in interviews is of no real significance. What he does on the mound is what he’s paid for.
Every team is made up of various personalities. What counts is how a player co-exists with the manager, coaches, and teammates over a full season
Boogie wonderland
I was listening to an album called ‘Example’ by a band called For Squirrels.
They had a minor hit called the ‘Mighty K.C..” It’s a good album. If not for a tragic touring van accident that claimed the lives of half the band they could have been very good.
Their music is worth remembering though…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBbl3RpgNN4
Blake,
If you trade Montero based on his best-case scenario, you have to acquire Greinke assuming he will win a CY award or 2 more, pitch successfully late into his career and help them win multiple rings during his tenure here with CC.
CC-Greinke is a 1-2 punch the Yankees have to think twice about as well.
Megadeth – Symphony of Destruction
“CC-Greinke is a 1-2 punch the Yankees have to think twice about as well.”
I agree to that…I wouldn’t do it but honestly if they did decide to go that route then I wouldn’t shout from the rooftops that Cashman is an idiot….all you could hope in that event is that we see a lot of the 2009 Greinke.
joeman December 18th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
Boogie wonderland
++++++++++++
Let snot go there.
Or did he mean “let’s not go there?”
Hmmm.
Blake,
I’m hoping for Greinke 2009. Being on a winning team will sharpen his focus and dedication to his craft. He’ll have a much better defense behind him here and plenty of support on offense as well. The best case scenario is we are trading the next Miguel Cabrera for a perennial CY award contender who will help us win many many more rings. Hopefully it works out for both teams, like the Granderson trade.
There isn’t a pitcher dead or alive that wasn’t chancy at some point. They all have to experience peaks and valleys to mold them into good pitchers.
As Mariano Rivera has said, “Every season has the peaks and valleys. When you rise from the valleys and hit the peaks, you appreciate them that much more and want to stay there.”
CC, Greinke, Hughes trumps Lester, Buckholz, Beckett
Bojo……Excellent point….I can’t imagine too many would disagree, unless of course you’re a Chowdahead or Pete Abraham
The Yankees have one legitimate high average power hitter in the system and he plays a premium position. The power in the Yankee line-up is aging and they’l lose one of them after 2011. At worst, Montero is Posada with the glove work with a superior bat. Romine is not better than Montero with the glove. Why do people feel the need to get rid of him?
NYYs also has a stable of young pitching that’s as good as any in any minor league system and at least 5 are less than a year away with a good team and could pitch in 2011 with bad teams. They also have three really good center field glove men and all have speed and two with varying degrees of power. Two good glove men at 2nd and 1 at short. I wouldn’t move Montero and Betances for anybody and would try holding onto Banuelos. Holding onto Hughes aside, everyone else can be moved.
GB…….With all the potential talent that is playing in the Yanks system that you just pointed out is why someone like Zambrano is worth rolling the dice with….He’s simply a stop gap for 2 years……If he’s merely a cash transaction then why not ??? The guy can still pitch, and you save all the above mentioned talent ……
I just did a quick search of Yankee-related Greinke items. I’m not sure if the team is pursuing him or not, but why would he want to play for a team that appears to have already written him off? I’m still not over the team’s treatment of Jeter so perhaps I’m hypersensitive, but my goodness — do they have to lack sensitivity here, too?
Some examples:
Klapisch:
Despite their willingness to take on troubled characters in the past — Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson — the team’s hierarchy suspects Greinke would be fatally matched to the New York baseball culture.
Matthews:
The possibility of trading for Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke has been discussed, although one of the Yankees insiders said it was highly unlikely the team would risk trading any of its high-level prospects for a pitcher with a well-documented history of social anxiety disorders. “I doubt he would be a good fit playing in New York,” the source said. “His disorder isn’t like Randy Johnson’s. He doesn’t lash out, he turns inward like a turtle. I can’t imagine him performing well in this atmosphere.”
Sherman tweet:
The Yankees had Zack Greinke’s brother, Luke, as a drafted minor leaguer in 2008. They consider him an extrovert, but feel they have insight that Zack is different, not built for NY and that is key. Why they would not play big for Zack even if they don’t get Lee.
Feinsand tweet response:
Fair enough, but if the Yankees believe that internally, that’s what matters. RT @mfortuna25 I hate the “Greinke can’t handle NY” argument.
What an offseason.
Pat M :
Good point. Cashman needs the advice of his major league scouts and minor league development people to determine if Zambrano is the way to go for 2 years or what prospects can be dealt or not dealt for Greinke.
In the case of Zambrano he can enlist the thinking of who knows him best, Larry Rothschild.
108 stitches…..I think Zambrano can be had as a simple salary dump……At this point, the options could prove to be expensive in terms of young talent…….Cashman has spent the past 4 plus years assembling a top rated farm system that can feed the parent club for years……I have reservations about wiping that effort with one single brush stroke…….Wang’s injury and Joba’s lack of self disipline is proving to be costly right now….
Pat M. December 18th, 2010 at 9:59 pm
GB…….With all the potential talent that is playing in the Yanks system that you just pointed out is why someone like Zambrano is worth rolling the dice with….He’s simply a stop gap for 2 years……If he’s merely a cash transaction then why not ??? The guy can still pitch, and you save all the above mentioned talent ……
———————————————————————————————————————-
Pat, I’d agree to a deal with Zambrano as long as that talent required was mid range talent, considering that money involved. There’s two salaries the Cubs would love to move….Zambrano and Soriano. Same with KC. Greinke and Meche. taking both salaries from KC would be fine if it lowers that ralent costs. Meche is owed $12 mil for 1 year. Stick him in the pen and use him as a mop-up/swingman. If they get 3-4 wins/good games from him. it’s worth it.
This is all posturing, imo. The Yankees are letting it be known that there are risks with Greinke, beyond his above average but not great pitching career, and as a result that the return for him should be priced accordingly.
GB-7 :
I’d be reluctant to deal a few others beside the names you mention. I need to see how Daniel Brewer, David Phelps, Hector Noesi, and Gary Sanchez further their devopment in 2011. They may be worth the wait.
Greinke? OK, I suppose. Why not? I’m sure it would cost the Yankees dearly in prospects and current roster players.
But what I really want to know is what would it cost to get Joe Posnanski to NY? I’ll give ‘em Lupica, George King and Michael Kay. Call it “addition by subtraction.” Smooth, laconic and authentic, it reads like Joe Pos wrote it in one take.
And not for nothing, don’t let Sam Borden’s blog work fool you; I’ve read his more “writerly” stuff and our boy Sam flexes his prose muscle with the best of them.
“But what I really want to know is what would it cost to get Joe Posnanski to NY? I’ll give ‘em Lupica, George King and Michael Kay”
That would be more one-sided than Buhner for Phelps.
Murphydog….How you doing ??? Merry Christmas in the event I don’t get the opportunity later next week……Very funny line by the way…..
Rich in NJ December 18th, 2010 at 10:23 pm: “But what I really want to know is what would it cost to get Joe Posnanski to NY? I’ll give ‘em Lupica, George King and Michael Kay”
“That would be more one-sided than Buhner for Phelps.”
A guy can dream, can’t he?
Pat M :
If I’m Cashman, I ask the Cubs for $2-3M absorbed by them and finish the deal by sending them Chamberlain. Use the $2-3M in part to sign Jon Rauch to replace Chamberlain.
The Cubs still get considerable salary relief as they want.
There’s a deal that can’t be refused. Lupica, King and Kay for Posnanski. Act quickly before somebody changes their mind.
Pat M. December 18th, 2010 at 10:27 pm: Murphydog….How you doing ??? Merry Christmas in the event I don’t get the opportunity later next week……Very funny line by the way…..”
I’m fine, thanks. Hope you and yours are well also. (Merry Christmas to you as well). Been crazy trying to finish up as many cases as possible before the year’s end. Lots of Obligatory Holiday parties all around too, in and out of the Courthouse.
And I’m serious about Sam’s writing. Boy’s got some chops.
The free agent options left are Pavano and nothing. So essentially zero. There really are very few options that I can see.
For Greinke, I would not trade Montero. Period.
I’d be extremely reluctant to include Banuelos. A lefty with plus fastball with control and a ++ change, those are very hard to find. If Banuelos, the rest of the package lessens, and definitely not Banuelos + Betances. But again I’d resist this as much as possible.
I’d be very reluctant to include Betances. But if pushed I might. But that would have to mean someone like Gardner or Joba are not included.
Other than that, take their picks from Gardner, Joba, Nova or Mitre (not both unless Joba is not in it), Nunez, Brackman, etc. Probably four or five players total.
That’s about as much as I could stand sacrificing.
If they want more than that, then see about Carmona.
Pretty cool comparison here on Banuelos….obviously it doesn’t really mean anything but kinda gives us something to dream about.
http://www.pinstripealley.com/
I just baked cookies for 8 hours and was hoping to see a Yankee signing here as a reward.
Love Posnanski’s writing. As close to agenda free as I’ve seen with sarcasm but no venom. I would be afraid NY would taint him.
Speaking of taint, his latest blog piece on Canseco is a good read. Canseco has morphed into a social experiment that no one stepped in to stop before it went wrong. Very sad.
pat, that’s cruel…talking about homemade cookies to a starving man. They’d taste great while listening to Les Paul and then Joe Pesci singing Christmas carols and blues.
Which pitcher has a higher upside, Betances, or Banuelos? I have seen clips of both and personally I prefer Banuelos. Lefty who appears to have a plus fastball and a sick change up. Cant remember if he has another pitch or 2 though…
http://thebiglead.com/index.ph.....e-brewers/
I think they both have such tremendous upside that it is hard to really go wrong with saying either one – do you prefer the big, intimidating right-hander with the stuff that makes you go “Wow”? Or do you prefer the smaller lefty who will pretty much amaze you that he can hit 95 MPH and throw that bugs bunny changeup at any time in the count? It’s really tough to compare them because the only thing they really have in common is the fact that they are very impressive pitching prospects.
As for Banuelos “stuff”, he also has developed a very nice curve to go with the fastball/change combination.
Banuelos may be the second coming of Santana ! Very young, but appears very good !
A good lefty, to me, always a little advantageous.
Best Pitcher: Ivan Nova had the best year in the system, but according to Cashman, 6-foot-4 righthander Dellin Betances is the organization’s best pitching prospect. “He might be our best pitching prospect ever,” the GM said.
http://waswatching.com/2010/09.....s-notes-8/
“He might be our best pitching prospect ever,” the GM said.
——-
He’s not better than Brien Taylor, Guidry, Ruffing, Ford, or Chamberlain.
I hope like crazy the Yanks get Fuentes also. Not for closing, at least not often.
Outstanding numbers against hitters career wise.
If not, Soriano, now and as future closer.
Pat M, Zambrano is a lunatic and the Yankees need to stay far, far away from him. Cash did not remake the clubhouse just to bring in a nut like him…………
Posnanski’s article does nothing for me. It’s easy for him to say – he’s not assuming any risk.
Wouldn’t mind Greinke or Zombrano.
Cash has to take what he can get – King Felix or Josh Johnson are not falling into his lap.
Zambrano can be good, but can also be a CANCER !
If it was up to me, I would rather see one of the kids ( Banuelos or Betances) this year rather than AJ again !!! Or Nova also.
I know they’re young, but they wouldn’t be the first 20-22 year old starter in MLB !!!
Betsy……Rather than disagreeing or knocking every one’s comments to the current situation that in the Yankee rotation, why don’t you offer a intelligent comment…..Something that isn’t pre-recorded in some rag blog that you gather most of your uninformed information….Honestly it’s exasparting after awhile…..
I mean Nova instead of AJ !
Who “realistically” can be added to the pen and be expected to succeed as the bridge to Mo?
*Balfour
*Rauch
*Fuentes
*Greg
*Qualls
*Soriano
*Other(?)
Red Lobster December 18th, 2010 at 11:54 pm
“He might be our best pitching prospect ever,” the GM said.
——-
He’s not better than Brien Taylor, Guidry, Ruffing, Ford, or Chamberlain.
———————————————————————————————————————-
Ruffing was never a Yankee prospect. He was a trade from the Red Sox.
Pat M, I think you misplaced your dictionary because you misspelled a word..can you figure out which one? I doubt it.
Too bad. How pathetic that you react to different opinion by resorting to insults As Bills fans used to say to those who complained about seeing them in the Super Bowl for 4 straight years – deal with it! We get it – Phil is special (something which you continue to repeat…….) and Zambrano is worth a flier on. Your ill-informed opinions are equally tiresome.
Cash will make some kind of move for the rotation
The fact that he offered a 7-yr deal to a 32 yr old pitcher shows what he thought of his current rotation. You don’t go to those lengths to sign someone unless you feel you need them.
Greinke comes with risk, but he is by far the best pitcher that the Yanks can realistically acquire. Zombrano is a risk/reward guy, but won’t cost much. I’d rather take my chances with one of them rather than go with Nova or acquire proven mediocrity.
WC,
From that list, Rauch is the only one that might be worth it. Soriano would be terrific, but he is too expensive for our blood (seems to be the moto of this off-season, doesn’t it?)
Balfour is a Type A, otherwise he’d be worth a look. Fuentes, I would have preferred him over Feliciano, don’t see the need for 3 lefties, 2 of them who will be 35 next year. Gregg isin’t anything great, neither is Qualls.
Most of the good options are gone. Don’t know what we were doing. I’d scoop up Rauch before we lose out on him too.
Well Betsy let me make this point……You didn’t like the pursuit of Cliff Lee, you scoff at the notion of trading for Zack Grienke and you certainly don’t like Carlos Zambrano….So Betsy, what do you like other than being a pisspot
It is peculiar. It seems to me Yanks 27 that we aren’t going to take a shot at Joba and Robertson in the important 8th inning hold position. With that obvious need and the Lee cash, what are we waiting for?
I don’t owe you ANY explanation, Pat M…………and I wanted Cliff Lee. You have a swiss cheese memory – or a selective one at that. You want to go lecture someone? Do it somewhere else – or to somebody else. A pisspot? Because I don’t want Zambrano? What next – call Albert Belle out of retirement?
Also, are we really worried about losing a draft pick or two at this point if the player is worth it?
You can’t lose a draft pick when there is no deal to be made.
Merry Christmas From Roy O.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug_PRUUStzg
Betsy, if Pettitte doesn’t come back what do you think the options are? Even if he does for that matter.
GB – Thanks for correcting me, I had a suspicion that he wasn’t a homegrown guy.
Pat – Agree on Zombrano. Would definitely take the risk. What are the other options at this point? Better to be aggressive and try to improve the pitching staff…
WCYF…..What are we waiting for ??? We’re waiting for Betsy to offer a suggestion of her own……Take the leap Betsy, you’ll find the experience to be liberating….
Yanks27:
Rauch would be a good pickup. Big stong guy who did a good job after Nathan went down and before Capps came in. He got the short straw imo last season.
Pat – I was curious what she thought. There aren’t a lot of options out there, it’s easy to just say no, no no. I mean Cashman is looking at Freddy Garcia’s medical records for God’s sake! lol
There is nothing like a good old discussion about scraping the bottom of the barrel. When did Cashman become a bottom feeder ?
Matt Thornton.
Any possibility of getting him ?
Does anyone know if Tony Pena has been re-signed to be Girardi’s bench coach next year ?
Ruffing won 39 and lost 96 games in 7 years with the Red Sox. was 231 and 124 with the Yanks in 15 years.
Even in the rare event that a Josh Johnson or someone unexpectedly becomes available at the deadline… there will be 29 other teams lining up to acquire his services. FLA might like another team’s prospects better, might charge us a typical Yankee tax, or another team might go crazy and offer a better package than what we can put together.
Saying that we can just wait for another team’s young stud to become available is foolish. There are many things wrong with that plan. The biggest being that this mystery “ace” will likely never become available in the first place.
Hence, why Greinke and Zombrano should be legit. options. What else are we going to wait for? The 2011 FA class sucks, the 2012 class looks good now, but many of the good pitchers (Weaver, Hamels, Danks) are on big market teams that can easily afford to keep them.
This isin’t like not trading the farm for Santana because they had their eyes on CC. There are no CCs in upcoming FA classes. Have to be proactive this winter…
“There is nothing like a good old discussion about scraping the bottom of the barrel. When did Cashman become a bottom feeder ?”
After Lee spurned us, apparently. Everyone is too expensive for us now…
Good input Betsy thanks!
Vineyard Yankee….Perceived desperate times leads to perceived desperate measures…….Yanks will be fine, however the rotation is thin as it sits right now……I good with giving Nova a shot as long as Andy Pettite returns…..Even if Andy signs up for one more tour of duty in The Bronx, that leaves Mitre as the 6th starter and that’s when things get very dicey……
Thin is a good description. Little room for error if there are any injuries.
If the price of Greinke and Za,nrano is too high, I’d go after a combined package or separate deals for Nunez and Nolasco. Both might be cheaper than Greinke alone.
WCYF….You and I both know with a 38 year old starter the chances are elevated that he could miss a few spins in the course of the season…….I’m not too hip on Sergio Mitre as my 6th starter…..
***Zambrano***
WC, I agree it’s a problem……..Greinke’s a good pitcher, but I still wouldn’t trade my best prospects for him. Montero/Banuelos/Betances are no-nos. I might give up Brackman, but the point is – if we have to wait, then we have to wait. Let’s face it -the Yankees are not in a good position and teams are going to take advantage of our desperation by asking for the world. Good trades, therefore, are not going to be had. It’s really hard to believe we’re in a situation like this, just 2 years after we signed AJ and CC……..we needed Lee (though as he didnt’ want to be here, it’s just as well) and now we need a 38 year old Pettitte (and there’s no guarantee he’ll stay healthy next year or pitch like he did in 2010).
GB……Nolasco could be had considering the Marlins are going to lose TO HIM in the upcoming Arb hearing…..What will he cost is the question…..I like him though….
Greinke to the Brewers or just a BS rumor?
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/.....37964.html
Nolasco’s NL ERA last two years mid 4′s and 5 scares me as do his home runs allowed. More hits than IP last two years also. Doesn’t strike me as an AL East guy.
Have to be proactive this winter…
====================
Unfortunately there are slim pick’ins left. To trade for ‘quality’ now Cashman will be getting bent over, he knows it and so do the other clubs. Which leaves ‘weighing the value’ of giving up too much will be the right thing to do.
WCYF…….He’s better than his numbers indicate from the 4-5 times I’ve seen him throw…….What I like about Zambrano is he’ll cost mostly money, he pitched extremely well after his sentence to Rikers, and most importantly is that he’d be on a veteran club that wins…….A complete reversal from where he’d be coming from…….As much as I like Lou Pinnella, Lou was just as volatile as Zambrano was…….The guy can pitch……
“Thin is a good description. Little room for error if there are any injuries.”
Yeah, we should be in OK shape otherwise.
But counting on a 39 yr old Andy to make 30 starts is a dicey proposition. And of course, we no longer have the luxury of ‘hiding’ Burnett and making him the best/most expensive #5 starter in baseball like people anticipated would happen had we gotten Lee… he now has to be a key contributor for us to win. Hughes has to take a step forward (which I think he will, but you never know with young pitchers). CC should be fine, but again, he broke down at the end of the year because we rode him so hard early on because we got nothing from our other starters (and had a shaky pen before Wood arrived). Looks like we have to ride him hard again.
We have very little margin for error. It makes sense why Cash was so desperate for Lee… would have made life much easier and we would still have been in good shape even if some of the above things were answered negatively (Burnett not improving, Andy spending a couple months on the DL, etc.)
Will be interesting to see what Cash does. Improving the pen significantly doesn’t seem to be on that list. Hope there is more than Freddy Garcia
Betsy I don’t disagree. So, play GM. What would you do.
Pat M.:
A 38 going on 39 year old injury prone Pettitte, Nova who I believe didn’t get out of the 5th inning last year in any of his starts and the dreaded buddy of Girardi’s…………Meat-Tray.
Shakey and dicey is being kind. That has trouble written all over it.
Pat – I’ve never seen him pitch, just on TV so I will defer to you. Good arm. I guess I am put off by NL ERA’s in the mid 4′s and 5′s.
Vineyard you are bummin’ me out! lol
Another Greinke to the Brewers story.. this time the writer is confirming it is not just a rumor.
http://onmilwaukee.com/sports/.....trade.html
Cashman should be loading up that pen with the money he was going to use for Lee. Turn the tables and make what SP’ers we have 5 inning guys. Rauch, Fuentes etc. would give us an awesome pen to lock down other teams for the last 3 – 4 innings.
So much for the Greinke talk. Next?
Good, that ‘head case’ would have been a pain in the butt.
Interesting that when it’s Kansas City and Milwaukee – no MLBTR, no Olney, no Heyman, no one notable on this one even if it was Greinke. I guess 130AM EST has a lot to do with that.
Brewers gave up a ton of talent…..Yanks would have depleted their system and it would have taken 3-4 years to recoup…
frankiedue December 19th, 2010 at 1:13 am
Another Greinke to the Brewers story.. this time the writer is confirming it is not just a rumor.
http://onmilwaukee.com/sports/…..trade.html
=============================================
Assuming the above is in stone…
Who would’ve been our similar players that we would have had to give up in this trade ?
Brewers gave up a ton of talent
–
This deal is like… Nunez, Gardner, Brackman, and Jose Ramirez / Stoneburner. Not exactly a depletion of talent.
I’m skeptical its even real. Keith law says neither Cain nor Jeffrees have been notified of a trade through their agent.
We never matched up well except for pitching. They wanted up the middle stud prospects and we have none. Montero was too much.
Who would’ve been our similar players that we would have had to give up in this trade ?
–
Nunez, Gardner, Brackman/Joba, Jose Ramirez/Stoneburner
We couldn’t trade Gardner now – and replace him with who?
Pat M. December 19th, 2010 at 1:01 am
GB……Nolasco could be had considering the Marlins are going to lose TO HIM in the upcoming Arb hearing…..What will he cost is the question…..I like him though….
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I’d think that one good player and 4 mid range players including an infielder like Joseph or Adams, an outfielder and and a couple of pitchers below the big 3….DJ Mitchell, perhaps and $2 mil, unless KC wants those players in a trade.
Wonder if we were actually ‘in the running’ for him ?
Hope there’s a do-able plan in-place.
The Yankees could probably match or beat that Brewers offer without giving up Montero. If that deal is true then I doubt Cashman tried to bring Greinke in.
Face…..That might have been the case……Those players that The Brewers sent to KC were guys who important to their 2011 plans
A ‘what could have been’ is now a non issue. What are the Yankees in on this winter, besides the Lee brush off ?
Those players that The Brewers sent to KC were guys who important to their 2011 plans
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Sure, but that doesn’t make them better than players the yankees could give up. Just like every teams top 10 doesn’t have an equal amount of talent in it.
Escobar hit .235 .288 .326 .614 in a full season.
Jeffrees is an erratic reliever.
Cain is brett gardner, maybe a little worse.
And the pitcher is in A ball.
The yankees could fill the Royals with immediate, impactful pitching depth and give them an escobar type short stop.
And I said I am skeptical this is even true, no one is in on this except 1 milwaukee newspaper? Greinke traded is a huge deal, sorry.
I’m throwing the BS flag.
Dayton Moore doesn’t go from “extremely high asking price” to that Brewers package.
Maybe the NYY can get Beckett from the Sox ? The Sox have plenty of arms.
GB….If you’re still around, I just went over to ESPN to see if there was anything to this trade, and I saw that Walt Drapo passed away at the age of 87…..I remember his baseball card when I was real young…….
Pat, I didn’t see that about Dropo but saw where the old Cubbie, Phil Cavaretta passed away at age 94.
I vaugly remember Dropo playing, but, what I remember most was the fight he was in against Enos Slaughter and the Yanks when Dropo played for the White Sox. Slaughter’s shirt was ripped to shreds.
Who’s got a donut ?
***vaguely*** remember Dropo
GB…..The piece on Drapo says he’s still the # 2 scorer in UCONN basketball history…..He was a huge man…..I did read about former MVP Cavaretta passed away as well…..One last thing on Walt Drapo, he beat out Whitey Ford of ROY……..Good night GB…..
Later, Pat.
Brewers beat writer saying no deal that he knows of. Either this is the most secret trade ever or its bs.
You have to think the Yankees just were not interested in Greinke. They surely could have matched or exceeded that offer even without giving up Montero, Banuelos or Betances.
I’ve contacted all my sources in Milwaukee.
So far the only reply I’ve gotten is “bratwurst”.
Very mysterious.
So far, just the one Milwaukee source reporting the Greinke to Brewers trade [well, his wiki page is already updated, too]. I’m not opposed to Zack coming to NY, but not at any price that KC would actually go for. Risk mitigation – that’s what the deal is. Yanks have some degree of risk in the starting rotation as it is currently constructed.
Adding Greinke would help to assuage that risk to a certain degree, but having him on the team would entail adding another bit of risk: would he be able to handle the pressure of playing in the hot spotlight? Some say yes, some say no, but the thing is – no one knows for certain. Lack of certainty equals risk. I guess what I am saying is that I’d be okay with giving up [someone else's] money and low to mid-level prospects for the guy, but not high-level prospects or major league players.
Who else is available? Pavano? I will cheer him on [again!] if and when he lands in the Bronx, but I would rather eat a bug than see him in pinstripes again. Buerhle? Wandy Rodriguez? Again, if the price is right.
Carlos Zambrano? With his contract, Yanks might be able to get him for not much in the way of prospects. I personally feel Z can still pitch. Harnessing his rage: Yanks have his old pitching coach, Larry Rothschild. They also have his ol’ Cubs catcher from 2001 and 2002, Joe Girardi. My guess – the Yanks and Cubs will get serious about Zambrano. Too many reasons not to.
Good morning to everyone back in the U.S.A.
If Andy comes back, Zambrano would slot in as Nbr.4 in the rotation, would he not? I’d take the risk – for all the reasons already noted. Would a 12 – 9, 15 – 12 record be a feasible possibilty? Eat some innings and hold a place for one of the B Boys. I don’t think it would take much more than assuming his contract.
Former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke has been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, sources told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney on Sunday morning.
Burnett and Zambrano on the same pitching staff.
Now that’s a scary proposition.
Should fill up Rothschild’s time pretty well.
I hope the guy likes challenges.
Now if you want to throw in Marmol along with Z then we might have something.
We’ll take your problem child and you trade us an excellent reliever.
Works for me.
Where is Buster Olney making this proclamation?
espn.com/mlb
I’m telling you – there is a potential problem brewing for the AL. Pitchers are going to or staying in the National League.
They get to pitch to weak #9 hitter and avoid a DH. Therefore, they will pitch more innings and ratchet up their Ks and ERAs.
At some point soon, baseball is going to have to address the discrepancy between the leagues regarding the DH. All or none.
It is another reason why the Yankees must develop their own pitchers. They are at a disadvantage int he draft, but if they can further improve their scouting and development, that would help. The CC Sabathias are few and far between, both in terms of talent overall, and in terms of having the sheer guts to pitch in the AL.
Dammit, we can now scratch greinke off the list…
After getting embarrased on Lee I thought the Rangers would all over Greinke. Like white on rice.
I believe he can be dealt to them w/o his consent, and they have an
excellent farm system with obvious money to spend.
If AP returns I’ll still take Gavin Floyd.
Nothing fancy about him. Just a solid mid-to-back end guy.
Looks like we might be taking the dental route and goin’ with
NovaCaine to numb our opponents.
Well at least we get to keep the “Sheik of Slam” (Montero).
Good morning, MTU and morning people.
NovaCaine? Clever.
Doreen-
Morning to you M’am.
Or SuperNova.
Or really numb them with SuperNovaCaine.
Doreen-
I’ll wait for Blake to chime in on that one. He’s a Dentist.
Good morning-
Attached is the article from the Milwaukee Journal, about the “rumor” of the Greinke deal to the Brewers and the players involved.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/.....45779.html
Doreen-
With the migration of the leagues better pitchers to the NL it might be hard for the AL to win the All Star game and get home field advantage for the WS.
YT-
What would you do with respect to our rotation ?
Assuming AP returns are you content with Nova at the tail end, and the rest of it ?
not a rumor anymore. its a done deal
Another Yankee miss! Another wasted weeks worth of conversations about a pitcher that we didn’t get.
Good for Greinke.
He gets a change of scenery and a fresh start.
Always saw him as a flyover country type of guy anyway.
We could have matched or exceeded the Brewer’s side easily but I guess either the Yankees did not see him as a fit, Greinke did not want NY, or the Royals didn’t like our package (if any).
The more time passes the more I see a SuperNova in our future
Yankee Universe.
Doreen
It does appear that Lee went to the NL for that reason but Greinke didn’t have that choice.
If a pitcher goes to the NL because it’s easier it tells me they don’t have the desire to be the best.
They do need to make a choice and decide to make both leagues the same in regards to the DH.
Yankee Trader -
That’s a good point, too.
Lee, Halladay, for example have the advantage of having faced the AL hitters and for the most part excelled there.
Interleague play might get more even, as well.
I understand the problem. But they let it go on too long. Seems to me it’s easier to go all DH, but I almost don’t care as much anymore if the discrepancy is going to hurt the AL in terms of getting and keeping quality pitchers in the league. (I think long-term contracts are one of the issues here.)
Maine-
Whimps.
# NYY fan in NH December 19th, 2010 at 8:34 am
Another Yankee miss! Another wasted weeks worth of conversations about a pitcher that we didn’t get.
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It was likely never going to happen.
That what happens here all the time. Bret and other fantasy GMs start salivating over players that aren’t realistic fits for this ball club and, when the inevitable doesn’t happen, people whine and moan about it calling for Cashman’s head.
It’s stupid and so predicable.
Everything always happens when I’m asleep….oh well this makes little sense to me. Its doubtful the Brewers will be able to retain Greinke long term. Maybe they are going to take a shot in 2011 before they lose Fielder. If the Brewers are out of the race, look for Greinke to be back on the market in July.
MTU -
Greinke didn’t have the choice, but I’ll bet he had a preference. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to think that he told his agent to try and stay within the league. He didn’t change his no-trade despite all the talk. And the toughest teams were on that list, I think, and two of them in the AL East (NY and Boston, right?)?
Pretty funny on Zach.
He was toiling in relative obscurity in KC and wants a do-over.
Now he’ll get to toil in relative obscurity in Milwaukee.
Too funny really.
Olney is confirming the deal. Looks like the Royals are getting plenty of salary relief and a SS, CF’er and two very good pitching prospects.
MTU-
The Yankees could really use another quality lefty starter. My hope is that Pettitte returns for another season. Nova showed alot of promise, and perhaps he was tired and had trouble in the middle innings because he had logged some 180-190 innings pitched already.
The problem in that scenario would be if one of the pitchers gets hurt or doesn’t perform well-?AJ. I still think we’d be one quality arm short to compete for a playoff spot.
Suggestions to follow.
Doreen-
Some people just don’t belong on the big stage.
No harm no foul. He’s where he probably belongs.
He’ll never see a ring there IMO.
I’m surprised the Twins didn’t make a hard push for him. He might have put them over the top.
My guess is that the Brewers are figuring on Greinke having a great season in the NL central and maybe help them make a run next year. If it doesn’t happen then they can trade him and recover more and perhaps better prospects (if Greinke dominates).
To match up with the Greinke trade to the Brewers, the Yankees most likely would have had to give up Gardner, Nunez, Brackman, and maybe Betances.The Royals were looking for SS/2B, CF, and 2 pitchers. They were also looking for salary relief and major league ready by 2012, at the latest,players.
The Twins and the Rangers, MTU.
I think Greinke just wanted out of KC for some reason other than to “win it all,” though relatively speaking, Milwaukee has a better chance than KC of getting to the playoffs. But the Twins, Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees even better.
Blake-
Starting to seem apparent that the Yanks feel like they can compete
just by “tweakin’” it.
Don’t worry Guiseppe Franco, there is nothing to talk about now except Feliciano and Hairston. Salivate over that.
“So far the only reply I?ve gotten is ?bratwurst?”
Is he the lefty reliever?
General impression seems to be if the Brewer deal for Greinke is indeed fact, the Yankees could have beaten it with prospects so they must have chosen not to.
MTU,
Either that or they have no choice but to tweak it.
Doreen-
At this point, I’d throw a party at my place if the Yankees make a significant move.
We could do the Limbo,Lambada, or the Texas two-step to celebrate.
MTU,
If Pettite comes back then they can. Another starter would be nice but they can compete with what they have now. If they can’t add one then I wonder if they’ll attempt to add Soriano to really lock down the pen…..we’ll see.
Greinke should like this…..his value will go nothing but up pitching in the NL.
Bret-
There is ALWAYS a choice. It’s just the price you have to pay.
Perhaps, they have chosen not to.
Keepin’ the powder dry I guess.
Well now I think its safe to say that there are no “available” front line starters that Cashman will deal Montero for……the only way Montero is traded now is if we are caught by complete surprise and someone is willing to deal a guy who nobody viewed as being attainable.
Greinke hired Casey Close only to be dealt to a team that doesn’t have to sign him to an extension because they’re not on his no-trade list.
There are possibilities out there for pitching help. Look at the teams looking to possibly unload salary.
Astros- lefty Wandy Rodriguez. Throw in Jeff Keppinger.
Cubs-Zambrano and some cash to Yankees. Throw in lefty Sean Marshall and the Yankees might give some better prospects back.
Marlins-Nolasco. I think they’re having trouble agreeing to an extension. If they do reach agreement maybe they try to trade arb eligible, and coming off a 2M contract, reliever Leo Nunez.
Carlo-
Exactamundo my friend.
Greinke will be available again sometime in the next 2 years…..maybe even this summer if the Brewers stink.
Trader-
Who says we needed staek anyway, right ?
Let’s get some hamburger.
At least it ain’t spam.
Carlo-
There’s no way you trade Jesus during the holidays!!
Blake-
Greinke is now yesterday’s news.
MTU – can’t believe that they just want or feel like they can tweak it given their efforts for Lee. You don’t go from trying to acquire a $150 mm starter to deciding they can just tweak it to compete.
They either have something up their sleave or they are stuck and blocked out of everything they thought they could do.
Cashman’s offseason plan was Cliff Lee or bust. He passed on Haren at the deadline last year. He refused to include Eduardo Nunez in the Lee trade. He obviously passed on Greinke. He must’ve wept himself to sleep when Lee went to Philly.
MTU – where is ur place? I will walk to the party at this point…..despite having no idea where you live.
Chad-
You need to wake up soon and start a new thread- “What Now?”
Good for the Brewers, I always like to see a team try to make a run.
MTU,
Yes….just sayin.
Remember how much you loved Montero and wanted him in pinstripes the first or the 20th time he goes “0 fer” or allows a go ahead run to score on a passed ball.
There will be growing pains so try and keep the expectations reasonable.
Carlo-
I comprendo what you’re sending.
However, your view, my view, and the Yankees view might be completely out of phase.
We’re dealin’ with budgets, percieved value, and patience.
I believe in going to Geico. The Yankees feel like they have enough insurance.
YT – hahahaha. It would in fact be very bad karma.
The most boring Yankee offseason in recent memory.
Bret-
You mentioned Hairston. Did the Yankees sign Scott or Jerry or both?
Carlo-
Southern Utah. But it’s a long walk. Even for a hiker like myself.
Yanks didn’t sign any Hairstons. Hitman has been talking about Hairston for weeks now…..its his way or mocking the offseason to date.
Tom-
Worse than a cheap dime store novel.
Bret
It turned out that Cashman was right to not include Nunez in that trade. Too much to give up for a rental.
Did he have a chance to get Greinke? We don’t know.
It seems that some think they know how to build a team better than the GM with only part of the info available to them.
And often the info we have is not correct because of false rumors from the media.
Cashman thought he could sign Lee. He passed on Haren. He passed on Oswalt. He refused to throw in Nunez in a Lee trade. He tried to squeeze Jeter to make room for Lee and disrespected him in the press. He conned Carl Crawford because there was never really room for Lee and Crawford. He left the Winter Meetings early. He passed on Greinke.
Either his target was Mitre all along or he miscalculated badly and it’s really going to cost this team.
The Yankees are still 2 starters short and one reliever short, needing an EIG.
Doubt they’ll pay Boras client-Soriano to set up and close on occasion some 12-13 million times 3-4 years.
Not a very good offseason for the Yanks. If Martin gets back to form then it becomes better, but there is a huge hole in the rotation and even if Pettitte comes back, he’s guaranteed a trip to the DL at some point. Very glad Montero is still on the team, but damn this has been a painful offseason. Cashman put all his eggs in Lee’s basket and missed out on all the other things happening around the league.
MTU – I’m in NYC. I better leave well before rumors of a trade even start. In fact, I may need to leave no in case we make a big move at the trade deadline.
The Yankees are only a 1/2 starter short.
AP will return. Nova is at least 1/2.
Seems likely that if he had included Nunez in the Lee trade Cashman would be in worse shape, all things being equal and Lee still preferring the Phillies. (Of course, we’ll never know, as Lee will never be able to say for sure – he never played for the Yankees and had no ties there, but his preference for the”easier pitching league” would likely have trumped anything else.) If that deal had gone through, they’d have no Lee, AND no Montero AND no Nunez (either or both of which will likely be on the ML team this season and/or be used to acquire a significant talent).
Carlo-
If you start now you should be here by the trade deadline.
Bring plenty of H2O it’s a desert out here.
If you were a Sux fan I’d tell you to forget the water.
YT – the only case to be made for the Yankees getting Soriano goes like this:
1 – there won’t be a lot of teams who can, need to, or are willing to meet Boras demand
2 – we have a lot of money to spend even if Andy comes back
3 – soriano frees us up to trade Joba now or before the deadline
4 – mariano is on a two year deal
Do I think it happens, no……but it wouldn’t shock me.
Doreen,
But Cashman didn’t include Nunez because he thought he could sign Lee. Therein lies the miscalculation.
It’s quite possible Lee would’ve stayed in NY after winning a ring.
I do think all we will see is tweak ot two. This team is basically the team with which they will start the season. If Pettitte does not come back this team will not go to the playoffs, and it is no probability even if he does. I wonder where the other plans went?
Failure to make the playoffs will affect the attendance and TV ratings. Unfortunately, their will be no free agents of value next year, and the 2012 free agents are to far away to know if they will truly be available.
This will now be two off-seasons without real improvement. Teams either improve or fall back. This team is falling back.
What do you think of lefty Wandy Rodriguez ERA 3.60, only got 3.75 run support. Made 5M and is arb eligible. If the Astros want to unload salary they can also add Brandon Lyon’s remaining two years.
Brandon Lyon rhp
3 years/$15M (2010-12)
3 years/$15M (2010-12)
signed by Houston as a free agent 12/11/09
10:$4.25M, 11:$5.25M, 12:$5.5M
For good measure throw in Jeff Keppinger.
Deal or No Deal??
Haren would have been a risk, no?
And I don’t remember any indication that Oswalt would have come to the Yankees. In fact, all I remember hearing was he preferred to stay in the NL.
I’m sure Cashman kicked the tires on both, and both were found wanting in some way.
Doreen,
Again, Cash passed on risks of all shapes and sizes because he penciled in Cliff Lee. His plan was Cliff Lee or bust. MASSIVE miscalculation if you ask me.
Bret -
I don’t agree. He got the WS with Texas and by all accounts was very comfortable with the Antlers and Claws gang. He still chose Philly. He wanted Philly all along. He never wanted to leave Philly.
No miscalculation. It would have been overpaying, number one. Number two, they had a deal on the table with the Mariners as it was. The Mariners were starting to play games with them, shopping their offer, because their first choice was Smoak.
YT-
My take is that it would take a magic wandy for Wandy to be good in the AL East.
I’ll pass.
Bret,
Again, I think there were other factors involved with both Haren and Oswalt.
Doreen,
Cash miscalculated. He had 150 million budgeted for Lee. He thought Lee was a sure thing based on that number.
Do you really think he meant to end up with Mitre in the rotation?
Bret The Hitman December 19th, 2010 at 9:21 am
Doreen,
Again, Cash passed on risks of all shapes and sizes because he penciled in Cliff Lee. His plan was Cliff Lee or bust. MASSIVE miscalculation if you ask me.
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I guess you have inside info the rest of us don’t have because we have no idea how any of these deals played out.
Because the results weren’t what you wanted doesn’t mean he miscalculated.
If I recall he also said he had plans incase LEE didn’t sign with them.
Bret,
I agree he made huge miscalculation relying on Lee. As I have said before, Cashman has spent the off-season hoping. First for Lee, then for Wood and now for Pettitte. Failed hopes. Waiting until 2/3 of the season is over by the trading deadline is foolishness. More hoping someone good will be available and Yankees would actually make a substantial trade.
I think Cashman has post-Javy Vasquez syndrome.
Maine,
Um…he lied.
Where are those plans?
there seems to be an assumption that the yankees are in big trouble if they don’t get #2 starter for 2011.
assuming that pettitte comes back, the yankees as they sit right now, start the season with sabathia, pettitte, hughes, burnett, and nova in the rotation.
i have one simple question to see where people are coming from in this fixation on a #2 starter.
how many wins would the yankees win in 2011 with this rotation?
i’d say 97.
if this team as is can win 97 games , why the obsession with #2 starter.
it’s as if the blog consensus is the yankees projected win total with the present rotation is about 89.
i don’t see that because i think the offense should gain back the 50 runs it lost last year because i think that arod, jeter,teixeira, and granderson as a group are going to have better offensive years.
pitching-wise, i think that burnett will be better than last year. vazquez was really bad last year…
whoa- just saw greinke went to the brewers.
bret
Because you see nothing done at this point means he has no plan?
To much need for instant gratification.
They aren’t even to ST yet and you want the roster finalized.
Randy,
I don’t think the Yankees would outlay 150 million dollars unless they thought they needed to add a top shelf pitcher, regardless of what Pettitte does.
Maine,
This game of chicken Cashman has been playing doesn’t seem to be working either. Who is he waiting out? Who does he have up against the wall? What’s the reward in eternally refusing to overpay a little for a player to the point where all impact players are off the table?
Bret
All your questions are based on how you perceive things, not on what is taking place.
You have no idea what he is doing or planning.
Seeing no action doesn’t mean none is being taken.