Quantity vs. quality on the prospect trade market
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 20, 2010 
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Did you really think I’d let the aftermath of the Zack Greinke trade pass without linking to Joe Posnanski? Not a chance.
On his blog, Posnanski argued that the Royals traded their best player without getting a best-player type in return. There is no obvious superstar in the package of prospects coming from Milwaukee, and the theory is that one superstar trumps a handful of role players. At the big league level, I agree.
But, in the world of prospects, there is something to be said for quantity as much as quality. True, the Brewers didn’t give up anyone with Jesus Montero’s hype or upside, but Montero is not a superstar yet, and there have been plenty of small-name prospects who have developed into big-name big leaguers.
These were Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects in 2000:
1. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
2. Pat Burrell, 1b/of, Phillies
3. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
4. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
6. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
7. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
8. Rafael Furcal, ss, Braves
9. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
10. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks
Those were the elite young players in the game, the Montero-type future superstars who could headline any trade for an established big leaguer. A decade later, those 10 have combined for five all-star game appearances (all by Wells and Furcal), two Top 10 MVP finishes (Burrell and Wells) and one cautionary tale.
You could do this with any Top 100 prospect list in the Baseball America archive.
The 2005 top 10 had Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer and Felix Hernandez. It also had Joel Guzman, Casey Kotchman and Andy Marte. The 1996 Top 10 had Derek Jeter, Vlad Guerrero and Andruw Jones. It also had Ruben Rivera, Karim Garcia and Ben Davis. The 1990 Top 10 had Juan Gonzalez, Sandy Alomar Jr. and John Olerud. It also had Ben McDonald, Kiki Jones and Eric Anthony.
Can’t-miss prospects don’t exist. That’s part of the reason the Yankees signed Russell Martin. Montero is close to a sure thing, but he hasn’t done anything at the big league level just yet, and the depth of the Yankees system is as much a strength as the presence of Montero and Manny Banuelos at the top .
Let there be no doubt, quality matters. But in player development, so does quantity.
Associated Press photo
(repost)
Post ASB Joba had a 2.88 ERA, struck out 37 in 34 innings, only walked 8, and held opponents to a .220 BA.
Joba had a rough go at it the first half of the season, but turned it around in the 2nd half (granted in lower leverage situations than in the first half)
He is extremely talented and if Joba doesn’t harness his ability and take hold of the 8th inning next season, I would be disappointed.
I think he can get back on track to being that future closer type and I think he will in 2011.
“but he hasn’t done anything at the big league level just yet”
Sorry Chad, but I hate when people say this.
Give the kid a chance first.
Chad,
lets test your theory and offer the entire SWB roster to Seattle for Hernandez. If you take Montero out then I’d trade the whole lot for him…..
But how much of those numbers were because he was not pitching in the 8th inning?
Remember, Wood took hold of that spot shortly after he arrived. And after that, the one game Joe used Joba in the 8th (that game in Texas), he gave up that HR to Cruz and Joe was crucified for using him in high leverage spots when he had not performed well in them prior.
Was it a case of him finding his niche, or was it because his role changed and he had less leverage situations? Same re: D-Rob.
Wait a minute, just last week you wrote a piece on this site calling Montero a “proven hitter.” Well, which is it?
Joba’s K/BB ratio ranked 27th among qualified relievers last season.
His 4.63 K/BB ration in the second half of the season was one of the best in baseball amongst relievers. Better than guys like Mo, Soriano, and Soria.
LGY…..The first thing Joba needed to do this off season was to hire a personal trainer and spend at least 2 hours a day getting back into good shape…..That would have sent a good message to the front office and maybe get him back on track……It’s time for Joba to get serious about the next few years if he wants to extend his career as a big league pitcher….
Joba’s BABIP in the first half last year was a .375.
I don’t think it explains all his problems in the first half as I think he was prone to give up big hits at bad times, but it certainly played a role and possibly a very significant one.
“Let there be no doubt, quality matters. But in player development, so does quantity.”
Trades are a balance of both.
But the real key in this deal is what “quantity” is the one that’s most important.
By trading for need, the Royals were implicitly saying that they have a very high degree of confidence that Hosmer, Moustakas and Meyers will all work out and turn into plus power hitting major league players who will anchor their franchise for half a decade.
But is that the case? Can they really know if those three guys are going to pan out?
In other words can you have enough confidence in the three plus power hitting prospects you have to essentially say we’re not interested in power hitting players anymore? We want to focus on up the middle players?
In this instance, I don’t think the issue was quantity over quality. It’s more an issue of which quantity do you want to maximize when you are giving up your Cy Young winner.
To me, having 4 blue chip power hitting prospects is far better than having 3 because you don’t know if those 3 are going to pan out. And if they don’t, they you don’t have that bat to build a line up around.
Pat M,
I agree.
If Joba comes to camp in shape I think he is line for a great year in the bullpen. If he comes in out of shape again I am not sure.
Pat M,
totally agree. I would have been hesitant about Brackman as well (but he is fairly old for a guy in AA, he’s actually older than Hughes is) and I like Robertson as well but if they could have traded Nova and Robertson for Haren and didn’t then I just don’t get that at all. The window is closing and it would have given them an alternative to Lee. Had they signed Lee and Pettite wanted to return then the Yanks could have traded Haren for a hefty return in this pitching thin market.
LGY…..You’re reaching hard on this Joba issue….Keep in mind that he was included in the Halladay trade, they wanted Hughes, He was included in the Lee trade ( Philly ) Cleveland wanted Hughes, and then he was included in the Haren trade and Arizona wanted Brackman or Robertson…….Talent scouts don’t see Chamberlain like Yankee fans do, and they haven’t in some time now…….The whispering chatter around the game is his poor attitude and work ethic……
Montero is not an ordinary top prospect. He projects to be a generational offensive talent.
Pat,
Yeah I know I am likely in the minority in terms of being optimistic on Joba. I was as critical of him as most on here the first half of last year. But I do think he improved in the second half and the numbers show that, even if it was in a lesser role in the BP.
I am optimistic on Joba in 2011. I hope he doesn’t make me look like a fool!
Would be nice if Joba would quit giving up 2-strike hit after 2-strike hit….regardless of his fatness (or slimness)
I know it’s not fair to judge by a picture, but I’m gonna do it anyway. Looking at that picture of Zack Greinke in front of the press, can anyone realistically picture him in NY?
If the Royals had added Billy Butler to Greinke for that list of required talent, I might have considered that trade. Butler would be a big time masher in most any other park.
If Joba isn’t traded and they have closed the door on him starting then I think we as Yankee fans just need to adjust our expectations for him….he’s no longer that guy from 2007. He’s a short reliever that can pitch the 6th or 7th inning. He can be pretty effective in that role as those guys are pretty inconsistent anyway.
“The first thing Joba needed to do this off season was to hire a personal trainer and spend at least 2 hours a day getting back into good shape….”
Much has been made out of Joba’s shoulder tendinitis. And clearly the time course of his performance really does correlate with the timing of that injury.
However, what’s always been so puzzling about the whole thing is that shoulder tendinitis isn’t that uncommon and is rarely career altering if it doesn’t require surgery.
But Joba’s change in performance also corresponded with another even – the end of the season.
Watching Joba now, his biggest problem by far is that he simply doesn’t repeat his delivery well at all anymore. That’s the issue that’s at the root of his change in performance, IMO.
And in general, the more athletic you are, the better your capabilities are to repeat your mechanics.
Joba was never a very athletic player even in 2007-2008. He’s had to battle against fitness issues back to high school. When he was heavy he wasn’t particularly good.
Looking back at old clips of Joba from 2007/08 it is startling how much weight he’s gained.
It’s very true that there have been many pitchers who have been terrific despite being heavy. But those pitchers still were able to repeat their mechanics. David Wells was a great example of this. As out of shape as you can imagine a ball player to be, but he still had the residual ability to repeat his mechanics.
Joba just doesn’t seem to have that ability. And it seems to me, that all of the weight he’s gained since the end of 2008 is probably the most likely reason for his decay in performance. That extra weight tipped him over to no longer being able to repeat his mechanics effectively.
He was never great with his mechanics even in 2007-2008 but he had enough talent to make up for it as long as his athleticism was where it was.
But with the weight he simply doesn’t have that cushion anymore and can’t repeat his mechanics.
CB…..The Royal and The Brewers AAA clubs play in the PCL so I’m guessing that KC had a good handle on the players that they wanted from Milw….At least it was extended eyeball observations……Brewers payed a high price for 2 years of Zack I think….
“….he’s no longer that guy from 2007″
That guy was a reliever. It was the 2008 version that seems to be gone forever.
Doreen, the NY media cannibals would have eaten him alive.
This picture of Joba kills me.
http://baseball.dailyskew.com/.....784967.jpg
From 2008. In shape and ripped. Look at his forearms.
I know you can’t force a player to get into shape, but I just don’t understand how Joba has not been “sent” to a place like Hughes went. Is it possible the Yankees just can’t convince him to go through a rigorous winter training program?
The whole Joba thing is just so strange.
CB….I was stunned when I saw him throw right before the AllStar break back in 09 against The Angels….An dit was a cool evening and he was gassed after 20 pitches …..It’s a shame because he has great talent in that right arm…….Too much success too soon for the boy from Nebraska…….
Joba is out of shape but CC isn’t?
Honestly, how does that work?
If joba lost weight would he change as a pitcher for the better or worse?
It’s more mechanics than weight, weight gives strength.. Do we know Joba is fatter than CC?
Few people question anyone’s shape until they aren’t meeting expectations.
Cb, lgy, good post answering my questions on joba,, I was tardy w my post..
“But with the weight he simply doesn’t have that cushion anymore…”
Oh he’s got cushion in all the wrong places.
When are the Yanks arb guys due offers? Maybe Joba will wake up when Phil’s salary does laps around his.
Rich,
I’ve said that if the Yankees hold a competition for spots in the rotation this spring then Joba should be put in there if for no other reason than to motivate him this winter. The Yankees seem truly done with that notion though so it makes you wonder what’s taken place behind closed doors for them to scrap that idea completely. Maybe they are just tired of motivating him and are content to let him be whatever he wants to be.
Joba should WANT to look like that picture from 3 years ago.
I’ve been out of contact here all day, so I was reacting to the visual before reading anything.
Pat M -
Good point about a personal trainer. Maybe he doesn’t have the inclination or desire to go off to the same place Hughes went because of his family situation – his dad, his son. But he does have the money to hire a personal trainer, and don’t you think the University of Nebraska would be more than happy to have him work out there for a while? We don’t know for sure he isn’t doing this, or hasn’t, or doesn’t have plans to do so after the holidays. I hope he sees the handwriting on the wall and takes matters into his own hands, as much as he can.
Rich in NJ……He’s at least 24 pounds heavier than what he was in 08……His core strength is what is keeping him from repeating his delivery……It’s what several guys have been saying since the start of the 09 season….He reported to camp that spring in queationable condition….As for guys like Wells, CC & Mickey Lolich, they all have great control and rather easy windups ….And they all have great balance over the rubber….
Doreen,
Joba currently looks like this: http://yfrog.com/h26u7oj
I am hoping he is going with the after holiday plan you mention
Aberham,
I don’t see it as a question of “who’s fatter? ” but rather than whose body responds better to carrying around that extra weight.
Weight can add strength but it can also sap stamina.
There’s been some negativity coming out of KC on Greinke since his departure. I’ve heard George Brett and Billly Butler both give comments that he may have been causing or would have caused problems had he stayed.
You know who is nowhere to be found on those list, and by nowhere, i mean nowhere (1-100). Robinson Cano
“Few people question anyone’s shape until they aren’t meeting expectations.”
Athletes that gain weight have a way on no longer meeting expectations.
Just look at the pictures of Joba from when he looked like he was on his way to being a top 10 starting pitcher to now.
The difference is dramatic.
Some pitchers have enough athleticism to pitch heavy. CC is a good example of that. He was such a good athlete that he had a division 1 football scholarship as a tight end. Even now he moves very well.
And most importantly he repeats his delivery like a machine.
Joba doesn’t appear to have that ability. He doesn’t have enough residual athleticism to repeat his delivery.
Just click on the link lgy posted. It’s a huge difference.
Being heavy doesn’t preclude a pitcher from being effective. But it certainly doesn’t help.
And the course of Joba’s career corresponds with this.
Albert Pujols shows up once, and is ranked 43, behind one lohud blog fan favorite Wilson Betemit
LGY -
I looked at both pictures.
Joba is not obese now. He does not look horribly out of shape. (I had expected worse based on some comments here)
The picture you posted earlier – he looks great.
It certainly looks to me like he’s not that far off – re-attaining his optimal physical condition looks like it should be doable.
And I know that just a little bit can make all the difference.
His is one of the sadder stories, but it doesn’t have to be over yet.
Those pictures are really……different to say the least.
When comparing quantity to quality, it’s not just quantity of players, it’s quantity of years. KC gave up two years worth of Greinke. In return, they got quite a few more years of several players.
Babe Ruth was pretty fat…..and he had little birdie legs, too.
He did pretty well.
CB -
There’s a difference, but is it that dramatic? I expected huge. It’s not good, but it’s not irreversible right now. From those pictures it seems like it’s an attainable goal at this point.
CB,
Do you think that Cashman actually has it in the works that Joba will be a starter but is delaying that public announcement because of his arbitration (I think he’s eligible) hearing? It seems he’d have more leverage as a starter than a middle relief pitcher
Or am I just creating a conspiracy theory?
Pat M
I’m not saying Joba shouldn’t get in shape (at his age, it’s inexplicable that he isn’t), only that if he was still the lights out pitcher that he once was, most people would ignore his added girth.
Hopefully Jober reaches deep and regains what he lost , cause boy was he fun to watch when he had it.
Hopefully he’s capable of naturally getting back in shape….I’m optimistic
After the acquisition of CC & AJ, I’m certain that Cashman had envisioned this seasons rotation to read Sabathia, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain and Burnett…….Instead he and the club are facing a crisis…….Doreen, all you need to do is look over some video of the 2008 Joba compared to the 2010 edition and the profile both on the mound and just walking to the dugout will astound you considering he’s 25 years old………I honestly thought that he’d get the message when he was constantly getting jeered and booed at in Yankee Stadium back in 2009…..If that wasn’t a wake-up call then I don’t know what will be…..Great talent…..
Rich Garces (EL GUOPPO)…
…he was pretty fat, too
Rich in NJ….True if the conditioning concern wasn’t at the heart of the issue….Some genuis brought up Babe Ruth ???? When the Babe was a pitcher he wasn’t exactly the Rolly Polly Babe wearing # 3……Besides, the Babe had the fastest set of hands and he was a great outfielder even spoting the extra 30 pounds that he sported in the late 20′s early 30′s…..
Doreen and anyone else who is interested,
We arrived ‘home’ about 4:30 Arizona time this afternoon. Other than the luggage, everything seems good to me. It was a long trip, but we made it.
Pat M -
To be totally honest, I don’t understand Joba and what’s happened to him at all. I can’t fathom how someone can have the world at his feet and let it go. But I don’t know Joba. I don’t know what he lives day to day.
I only wish him the best and hope he can find his best once again.
SAS -
Glad you arrived safely and thanks for the updates!
Now, maybe you can relax a little.
I heard CC’s on a serious diet this winter.
“Nothing but greens” is what he said.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_4uFO.....00/CC1.jpg
Joba didn’t look awful in that picture; he just didn’t look like a young jock. You can’t compare Babe Ruth to Joba, because different thing are expected today.
Pat M. is on the money when he calls for him to work hard with a trainer for a couple of months. He would probably feel better about himself, and that alone could be the key to a more effective pitcher. If Joba spent some time with a sport’s psychologist, that might also make a difference.
If Cashman is going to give up on looking for that #2 starter, at least go get Aceves back or something. We can be a decent #5.
Doreen,
I hope so. I feel after that scare as though I am ‘a washed out dish rag’. It was very emotional there for a few weeks. Hopefully, “all’s well that ends well.
We just have to unpack and get our lives in order
Thanks for caring.
I kinda agree with the Yankees not giving up Montero in a Greinke deal. But could they have at least matched a deal? Romine?? Or maybe the Royals wouldn’t do that. I am just not that impressed with what Milwaukee gave up. It frustrates me.
Chamberlain should have joined Philip Hughes 2 years ago at the Athletes Performance Institute in Phoenix. It might have made a difference as it did with Hughes. That’s when the 2 careers went in opposite directions. It’s a good reason why Phil is a starter and Joba is a back of the bullpen man.
He could have pitched his way out of the bullpen in 2009 by picking the brain of Mariano Rivera, the master of repeated mechanics but preferred to sit on a bullpen chair with his feet propped up, spitting David sunflower seeds instead.
Let’s see what Larry Rothschild makes of the guy.
SAS -
You’re welcome.
Anytime.
Doreen,
Some ball players and pitchers can carry weight. Some can’t. It partly depends on what your baseline level of athleticism is.
CC is an extreme example. He’s a great athlete and he can carry his weight without a problem. He really is built and has athletic skills like a football player (which he was).
Joba has struggled with his athleticism and his weight his whole career.
It’s impossible to definitively say why he’s gone backwards.
But I do think the weight he’s gained is an issue. He doesn’t repeat his delivery the way he used to. It’s why he throws the ball so inconsistently.
And gaining weight and losing athleticism makes it more difficult to repeat your mechanics.
Gaining weight has definitely not helped his performance. And it is likely a factor in why he isn’t throwing the ball as well.
When he was mowing guys down he was in much better shape and in turn more dynamic out on the mound.
“…You can’t compare Babe Ruth to Joba, because different thing are expected today…”
Yes you can.
It’s still about results/performance.
Don’t get “TMZ” confused with MLB.
Genius
MConti,
I don’t think the yankees are considering Joba for the rotation barring very extreme circumstances.
Doreen…..Who knows, but do remember this, he’s 25 years old who was raised on the Farmlands of Nebraska and he’s made over 1.5 million already…So maybe in his mind he’s hit the bigtime and the drive to succeed has been lessened to a certain degree…….One thing is for certain if he stays on this course he’ll be remembered as the guy who could have been really good…….
“Maybe they are just tired of motivating him and are content to let him be whatever he wants to be.”
But why under their watch? If he’s not motivated to get in shape and the end result is a fringe, erratic reliever (one who is due for a nice raise in arbitration, BTW) then why are they continuing to keep him around?
Are they afraid he will get motivated if he goes to another team?
Joba probably won’t go back to starting, but maybe they can help him figure out how to get back to 2007, and turn him back into the guy who looked like a lock to be our next closer.
As far as I am concerned, if he is content being mediocre then deal him. He is too talented to waste a roster spot on being just ok.
CB -
I agree with all of that.
Heck, I gain 5 pounds I feel off my game!
But seriously, I do recall when Joba first came up that there was talk that he had lost a lot of weight and gotten into incredible condition and the result? Being called up in 2007 to lead the Yankees to the playoffs (or help do so).
What I don’t understand is, when a person can see a clear point A to point B, what makes them go off course? And not see that they did so?
As I said above, I don’t know Joba and what he lives day to day. But part of his job as an major league pitcher is to make sure he is in the best operating condition he can be, and in that regard he has clearly not done so.
I still feel badly for the boy. What can I say?
jackamir ~
What makes you so sure the M’s have any inclination to move Felix before the deadline?
He is…
- home grown
- still very young
- signed to a relatively inexpensive contract
- a CY winner
In other words, he is the perfect type to build around and, obviously, the M’s are in the building mode. I can’t speak for all Mariners fans, but if it means being patient for a couple of years while current prospects develop and various FA are added in order to keep Felix as our cornerstone, it is totally worth the wait. He is that special.
http://tinyurl.com/255m23m
Has anyone seen pics of Joba this winter so far from his trip to Disney?
Let’s just say… the weight room is still dusty.
Doreen….One thing will be apparent, Joba is costing himself millions of dollars staying with his current mindset……He is by far the most famous middle reliever in the game though, and that in itself is sad…….He’ll come to see this real soon when Hughes gets a bountiful extenstion in a few years….As will Ian Kennedy…..
I would literally deal anyone in our farm for Felix. he is that damn good.
“But why under their watch? If he’s not motivated to get in shape and the end result is a fringe, erratic reliever (one who is due for a nice raise in arbitration, BTW) then why are they continuing to keep him around?
Are they afraid he will get motivated if he goes to another team?”
probably because at this point his value as a short reliever for them is more than his trade value….
WCYF:
‘And Joba too, he has had plenty of chances to prove himself. He will get another one this year’.
======================
Your joking right ? ? Prove himself doing what ? ? ‘Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life’.
Pat M -
So true.
You know, I don’t talk about this here at all, because I don’t like to open cans of worms, but the day the story hit of Joba’s DUI I got a strong feeling of dread. It was only once. And I certainly don’t think that one DUI indicates a problem, so that’s not where I’m going with this.
It was like the day I saw Dwight Gooden with jeri curls.
It was like that particular piece of the universe shifted.
But Joba is young enough to turn things around if a lightbulb will go off. I get the feeling the Yankees have tried and tried. I’m sure they probably gave him the same talk they gave to Robinson Cano that was so successful with Robi. Let’s see where he’s at in February.
Blake, good point…Do recall that down the stretch last season his number wasn’t called that much……Wood & Robertson were called upon as Joba sat…..He dropped that far down the pecking order…..
Pat M,
you heard gossip lately?
anything at all.
As tough as Harlan Chamberlain has had it in life, you wonder why things have turned so far with his son. I have to assume that father has had more than one talk about him blowing the opportunties to make life so much easier on Joba and his son. Does Joba not care, not listen? He certainly could use a verbal kick in the ass.
GB7-
I think he’s had the verbal K in the A, but maybe he needs a physical K in the A?
This is off topic. But if Andy retires(which seems likely), how can the Yankees think it is ok to stand pat?
Bring Aceves back.. Rather have him than Mitre.
ac1 -
Isn’t Aceves recuperating from a broken collarbone? Not to mention the back?
Doreen, I’m sure that team mates have talked to him….a lot, but, it doesn’t appear to have made a dent. I would think that his father reading him the riot act would do something, but, it appears not. In 5 years, he’s going to look at this wasted time and it’s going to hit him. by then, nobody will want him.
Yup. Just frustrating. Teams really want to hold the Yankees for ransom.
CB,
If Pettite does retire….what are your thoughts about taking that money and trying to lure Soriano to NY? They would have to overpay most likely but a lockdown pen could help the thin rotation….plus he could provide insurance for Rivera and help keep him healthy.
i thought it was said he would be ready for spring training. could be wrong. Nonetheless, maybe we won’t get another Ace, but we definitely need to get another good pitcher, maybe two (from somewhere).
That wouldn’t be a bad idea. But I also like the idea of Jon Rauch.
Chamberlain is fast moving down the Brian Bruney Highway. A world of talent in that right arm and a wasted opportunity.
I’m actually looking forward to seeing Ivan Nova pitch. If i remember correcty, this kid was throwing 95pmh. I think he had three or four pitches that looked absolutely nasty. Why not give the kid a shot a being the 5th starter?
Heaven forbid if he was on another team as the 5th starter and was pitching his a** off. we would have been killing cashman for not keeping him.
I look at this off season as this:
We lost out on lee, greinke, Crawford, and werth, even though we werent seriously going after the last two, I’m past that. I strongly believe that things happen for a reason and whatever the case may be, these players did want to come to ny.
GB……I think when Roger left the scene Joba lost his mentor…..Blake, the only think I’ve heard is that Danny Espinoza was glad he wasn’t traded to KC…..He speaks of the change in the mindset of the Washington Senators / Nationals that has everyone believing that the club will be a playoff contender in a few years……I’d love to see the Yanks get Danny, but I’ve always viewed him as a natural 2nd baseman who can play a good shortstop…..He’s moved up the ranks real fast….
Benny:
I hope you are right.
Definitely give Nova a chance.
But without Pettitte, we still need one more.
I think Nova has potential. His stuff is filthy. He has a nasty curveball.
Nova probably will be in the rotation as things stand right now. It would be interesting to see how he progressed over a full season. He’s got good stuff…just needs to refine his curveball and gain some experience.
ac1 -
I hope Ace is back sooner than later, and I hope it’s with the Yankees.
Pat M -
I never really made the Roger/Joba connection. They weren’t together all that long, but I guess Roger is larger than life, even as a mentor.
Pat M,
Thanks. The Nats certainly have started the ball moving in the right direction and they have aggressive ownership. They could be pretty good in a couple of years.
@ SSCano
==========
I hope I’m right too. And I do think we need one more, however, people are forgetting that was nova’s first big league experience. Shouldnt minor leaguers have some type of learning curve? Didnt halladay, cliff lee and a host of others have it? None of these pitchers came in the league and dominated from the start. not one!!!!!
‘You can’t compare Babe Ruth to Joba’………
=================
Oh, yes you can, especially in the tavern late at night.
Pat M
You’re right.
Most pitchers do not come out the gates and dominate. Randy Johnson wasn’t his future hall of fame self until about 30.
I wouldn’t mind Nova as a 5th starter, but I would hate to see him have Joba rules.
Andy is kinda holding things up. I really think no Andy and Cashman strikes a deal.
One doesn’t always need to endlessly over-analyze a myriad of stats when evaluating a ballplayer. Sometimes the simplicity of just using one’s eyes can be a beautiful thing. Joba Chamberlain just is not the pitcher Yankee fans understandably want him to be.
I don’t know if ID is still around, but I need to take him to task again on the age thing. Age absolutely means everything for a prospect. The better you do at a younger age impacts how you are projected going forward. You’re facing talent that is older than you, and great players will shine through regardless. You’re facing more experienced players. If you fail at a young age you have more time to continue to build and develop. If you fail at an older age you’re really limiting your choices.
There isn’t as much physical projection left in older players, you get what you see. There is an expectation on older players to perform because they have been in the system longer. Escobar has been a professional for longer than Carl Crawford was when he reached the majors, and by the mirror point in Crawford’s career he was already putting up solid seasons in the AL East.
Escobar failing at the same age Crawford was OPSing .800 does not mean they are comparable because Escobar at 23 put up a similar type season to Crawford at age 20.
You always want younger guys, if they are better. You certainly don’t want bad older guys because they aren’t as likely to improve.
SAS……I think Ivan tossed 200 innings last season ??? Or somewhere near there…..I like him in the 5 slot…Didn’t he do better going from AAA to The Bigs than he did going from AA to AAA Ball, GB ???
What if the rotation was this? CC, Hughes, Zambrano, AJ, Nova?
Nova threw 187 innings last year between Scranton and NY so he probably would have the training wheels off for the most part next season.
SAS……I think Ivan tossed 200 innings last season ??? Or somewhere near there…..I like him in the 5 slot…Didn’t he do better going from AAA to The Bigs than he did going from AA to AAA Ball, GB ??
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Nova had a 2 ERA in AA and it ballooned to 5 in AAA, then he settled in for 2010 and threw up a 2 ERA in AAA and then had a 4.5 era in the majors. He had a total of 187 innings between the minors and majors last year. He has no innings limit.
If redsux fans and yankee haters want to laugh and poo poo on the yankees, let em.
As much as AJ’s a headcase, I’m sure he has to be motivated to some degree to pitch like the number 2 pitcher he was suppose to be when the yankees signed him?
You also have to believe that phil hughes will pitch even better than he did last year.
Phelps and Noesi could also be considered to have no innings limits, as they will be cleared to throw around 180-190 innings and I doubt either would reach that as a #4 or #5 on the yankees.
It’s all well and good for Nova to have all the potential in the world. Bottom line is he failed to get beyond the 5th inning in all but one of his seven starts. ML hitters figured him out after two times through the lineup.
Vineyard…..I agree with you post, but do you not see any potential in nova? What if he dominated his starts in 2010 then got tattooed this year? Wouldn’t you be saying that they figured him out and that he’s not very good?
CC-Huhgsy-BurNED-Ponson-Swisher…. gawd I love our chances
Joba has struggled with his athleticism and his weight his whole career.
///This is incorrect re joba’s athleticism.Chamberlain is actually an excellent fielding pitcher.He has very good reflexes.anyone remember that pure reaction athletic play in Boston where he flew off the mound and got vertical to make a great catch?that was a great play,comically good even,but it wasn’t that unexpected given his athletic abilities.if joba has stamina problems then that’s something else.but he is a good athlete.he’s not kyle farnsworth,not even close to being an adventure on balls hit back to him. this idea he’s got two left feet is just not accurate.i’ve seen enough of him to call BS on this.
Pat M. December 20th, 2010 at 9:11 pm
SAS……I think Ivan tossed 200 innings last season ??? Or somewhere near there…..I like him in the 5 slot…Didn’t he do better going from AAA to The Bigs than he did going from AA to AAA Ball, GB ???
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Pat, Nova improved pretty much each year. This is his time now, mainly because he has big league time, but, I’d rank him behind Phelps and Noesi. Noesi may have the best stuff of the 3, but, Phelps may have the guts to exceed his talents. he could be a solid to good #3. As good as his stuff is, he’s been a bit slower to develop, but, he’s good and still only 23. DJ Mitchell, I can’t quite figure out. He wins, though, but at times tends to coast with a lead….pitch to the scoreboard. Walks a bit too much and not a lot of strikeouts but always fewer hits than innings hardly ever gives up homers. Trade bait or late inning relief?
GB,
I haven’t see Noesi pitch yet but I like Phelps a lot…seen him a couple times. He’s very Ian Kennedyish to me…..knows what he’s doing out there. Hope they throw him in the mix this spring along with Nova, Noesi, and whoever else. Noesi’s minor league numbers are pretty impressive..
Nova was put on the hot seat from his first start and not allowed to fail…ever. He couldn’t have 1 bad inning because it was the end of the season, and the Yankees needed wins. That’s asking a lot of any starting pitcher.
Vineyard……The kid came up at the tail end of what would have been his AAA season……I thought he looked real good in just about every start….His tank hit E as he hit the 5 inning mark…..Maybe it was the result of the seasonal fatigue that set in….I do recall him being able to pitch his way out of jams which is a notable accomplishment for a young starter……I’m encouraged in what I saw of him in 2010…….He’s earned at least a shot for the rotation in 2011 and unless he pukes out in camp he’ll be in the 5 slot…….However I never saw him pitch prior to coming to The Bronx…….I wish GB was here right now to share his observations…..
Perhaps Nova was hitting his wall at the end of the year. It was a 40 inning jump over his previous high.
Benny:
With two open slots in the rotation and no help in the pen so far other than Felicano, I think Nova needs to be able to step it up this year and hopefully go 6 – 7 innings in his starts. Can you invision Nova and Mitre both being 5 inning guys and the pen being blown out ?
Neither of these two has shown the consistency to go deep in games at the ML level, a scary thought to me.
In answer to your question Nova at times has looked sharp, then the bottom falls out all at once, is it his inability to mix it up on the hitters or is it the way the catcher ( Posada / Cervelli)is calling the game ?
Phelps and Noesi have a better chance of starting the year in the rotation than Mitre.
“Neither of these two has shown the consistency to go deep in games at the ML level, a scary thought to me.”
Vineyard. I hear you bruh but the consistency that you’re looking for does not happen overnight. For some players it takes time and development to achieve the level of consistency that you are looking for.
We’re going to be in the bullpen very early a lot this year…
Vineyard Yankee…..I think GB answered that question for us about Nova and his tendency for 5 inning outings……Those 40 extra innings speak loudly…..Glad you were her GB to fill in the blanks……
Pat:
I am looking on the side of not improving the team as well as Nova being a bit ‘green’ at the ML level. I don’t think Pettitte is coming back and we will have to rely more on Mitre and Nova ? You comfortable with that once a week ?
I ‘hope’ he was running out of gas and this year he will be rar’in to go. Wood is gone, Felicano is not his equal, Joba nad Robertso didn’t show alot of consistency last year and now Nova and Mitre need to step up big time to keep us in the hunt.
I am just not doing cartwheels right now if you know what I mean.
No problem, Pat. It’s just my thought on Nova’s late season issues.
I still feel pretty confident Sergio Mitre will not be in the starting 5 this year..
Pettitte is the key. I really doubt Mitre and Nova will both be in those slots if andy retires.
Benny:
Yes, that is so. My thought after the Lee offer went south was to sign a couple of the stud FA RP’s with some of the Lee money to give us the best 6 thru 9 guys in baseball. This would take some of the pressure off the SP’s (including Burnett)
Unfortunately that scenario has pretty much passed us by now so hence my concerns about Burnett, Mitre and Nova. It is just not an appealing thought to me right now.
the crap in here on Chamberlain is conjecture at best and full of ill will at worst.if you all got together to write The Joba Chamberlain Story and sold it to Hollywood,it would be full of more melodrama,crisis and a tragedy than a Barcelona soap opera,but it probably wouldn’t resemble the guy’s reality.I hope they trade this kid.I hope he goes somewhere else,where he has a real pitching coach rather than that complete zero Dave Eiland,who really needs high blood pressure medicine to change his complexion to the beet red it always was,and whose lower back must ache from taking so many bows for Hughes’ successes but who obviously took every opportunity to deflect any blame for his role in chamberlain’s current status,even publicly making melodramatic statements about the kid effectively ruining his trade value – maybe if JC could actually take his four pitches to a real pitching coach who is more interested in developing him than in congratulating himself,maybe he’ll get back to where he seemed to be headed just three years ago.if rothschild has an open mind,maybe he can still get there,here. I hope so.
Pat M
I saw Nova pitch here in Portland for Trenton.
His off speed stuff looked good, swing and miss.
His FB hadn’t developed at that point. I think it was in the mid to high 80s then.
I was suprised when I saw his FB up in the 90s in SWB.
Here is a breakdown on Nova’s Scranton numbers, including his last 10 starts. Not much to gather from that.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....pid=467100
Vineyard…..I believe that The Yanks will be fine with Nova in the 5 slot, it’s the lack of depth that is concerning as well as the depth in the bullpen…..I wish I felt that Joba could nail down the 8th inning role, Lord knows he has the tools to be the best setup pitcher in the game……Robertson can spell Joba when the workload gets heavy……My biggest concern is now that Kerry Wood is no longer in the bullpen, who fills in for Mariano as he’ll be handled with gentler gloves in 2011 than he was in 2010 ???? As several have mentioned today and over the past few days, after Lee went down the 95 to Philly, the bullpen should have been a priority to be the deepest in the game….That’s a real concern foremost right now…..
So what is the plan to secure an 8th inning guy? Rauch seems to be the best target given Soriano’s price tag and probable desire to close.
Pat, I assume that Soriano is not in the Yankee picture. I’d make the gamble on Rauch. He’d be especially effective against Boston and Toronto’s right handed bats even in the 8th inning..
yanks might have to bite the bullet on soriano
Pat:
We are on the same page, note my post of 9:46pm. Touche.
WCYF:
Rauch yes. Ah………Cashman is waiting for ? ? …………..Oh, thats right we have nobody and Plan B is patience.
“If Pettite does retire….what are your thoughts about taking that money and trying to lure Soriano to NY? ”
Blake-
It’s a reasonable direction to go in. It will help some but on the whole I’m not sure how much impact it’ll have. It’s just very difficult for relievers to make up for starters if those starters aren’t giving length.
The concern with the rotation if Andy doesn’t come back is that the 4th and 5th starter will make it to inning 6. Soriano isn’t going to be able to bridge the gap if things go south.
Outside of the money and actually convincing soriano to set up (which will of course cost money), there’s also the issue of giving up the draft pick.
The player the yanks would get in the first round of this draft would likely become one of their ten prospects. Given the strengths of this upcoming draft it would likely be relatively high in the top 10.
To me that’s how you have to think about signing Soriano.
But he is a terrific relief pitcher. He’s not a run of the mill closer. His stuff is closer to the Soria/ Nathan when he was healthy level than to the KRod/ overrated by saves level.
Rotation depth is a big issue. Are we going to dodge another injury bullet with Sabathia and Burnett in 2011?
CB,
Fair enough…the draft pick would go to tampa too which isn’t great either. It could possibly lighten the load on Rivera though…just a thought. I do think they need to address and strengthen their bullpen somewhat if they aren’t going to be add to the rotation.
New thread, new subject >>>>>
K-Rod was sick with the Angels.
“the draft pick would go to tampa too which isn’t great either.”
Tampa has a shot at having 11 of the top 64 picks in what is the deepest draft in many years.
And they already have so many good young players in the minors, pitchers especially.
No, no, no Chad!
Don’t you know that Jesus Montero is going to be the next Yogi Berra and that this is 1947 all over again?
Steve Goldman said so.
What impresses me the most about Montero is that, both at AA and at AAA, he overcame inital struggles and then dominated. In other words, he showed the ability to learn and adapt to a higher level of play, rather than just showing up and dominating based on pure natural talent. I think that, once the Yankee brass thinks he’s ready, if he gets a consistent stream of major league at-bats, he will learn the ropes and do very, very well, at least as a hitter.
One thing about Yankee prospects who stick with the team — they usually turn out to be very coachable, whereas the ones that get traded tend to be less so. Example, Robinson Cano and Alfonso Soriano. I doubt that this is a coincidence.