The LoHud Yankees Blog

One year ago, December 21 began as fairly routine offseason day. It had been a week since the Roy Halladay trade to the Phillies, and believe it or not, it was somewhat blogworthy news that Jason Marquis had signed with the Nationals. The Yankees were known to be looking for back-of-the-rotation help, and Marquis seemed to be an extremely remote possibility.

It was a day like any other, but by the end of it, there was chaos.

I’m sure you remember it well: It started with vague reports that the Yankees were working on a trade for a starter. Problem was, no one seemed to know the name of the pitcher or even the name of the other team. There was wild speculation until at last Javier Vazquez’s name emerged.

What I remember about that night is that I had moved to New York a little more than a month earlier, and I’d left a lot of friends behind. When all was quiet into the late afternoon, I decided to make a late trip to Scranton to see everyone.

The timing, as you can imagine, could not have been worse.

The lesson, as you can guess, was rather simple: Even on the quiet days, there’s always a chance the Yankees are ready to make some noise.

Brett Gardner was a telephone guest on the Yankees Hot Stove tonight on the YES Network. He’s still recovering from offseason wrist surgery, but said he had his first rehab appointment today.

“I definitely think by the time spring training rolls around I’ll be 100 percent,” he said.

Actually, Gardner guessed he’ll be back to 100 percent by early to mid January, which more or less puts him on track for a normal offseason. I know from past conversations that he usually doesn’t start hitting until after Christmas anyway, so he seems to be only a week or two off his usual schedule.

He can’t start any upper-body work just yet, but he’s keeping himself in shape.

“Just trying to take it easy and doing a little bit of running and keeping my legs in shape,” he said.

• No surprise that the Andy Pettitte is still leaning toward retirement. I have a feeling it will be that way until we hear something official about his retirement or his return. Today, Marc Carig heard an estimate that there’s only a 30 percent chance Pettitte will return.

• Heading into the 2004 season, the Yankees No. 4 prospect, according to Baseball America, was infielder Joaquin Arias. Now Arias has been designated for assignment by the Royals. Tip of the hat to MLBTradeRumors.

• By the way, in the 2004 Yankees prospect ranking, the guy listed two spots behind Arias as the No. 6 Yankees prospect was Robinson Cano.

• The Astros made their Bill Hall signing official.

• Even with Zack Greinke out of town, the Royals have no plans of trading Joakim Soria.

Associated Press photo

Did you really think I’d let the aftermath of the Zack Greinke trade pass without linking to Joe Posnanski? Not a chance.

On his blog, Posnanski argued that the Royals traded their best player without getting a best-player type in return. There is no obvious superstar in the package of prospects coming from Milwaukee, and the theory is that one superstar trumps a handful of role players. At the big league level, I agree.

But, in the world of prospects, there is something to be said for quantity as much as quality. True, the Brewers didn’t give up anyone with Jesus Montero’s hype or upside, but Montero is not a superstar yet, and there have been plenty of small-name prospects who have developed into big-name big leaguers.

These were Baseball America’s Top 10 prospects in 2000:

1. Rick Ankiel, lhp, Cardinals
2. Pat Burrell, 1b/of, Phillies
3. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
4. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
5. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
6. Ruben Mateo, of, Rangers
7. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
8. Rafael Furcal, ss, Braves
9. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
10. John Patterson, rhp, Diamondbacks

Those were the elite young players in the game, the Montero-type future superstars who could headline any trade for an established big leaguer. A decade later, those 10 have combined for five all-star game appearances (all by Wells and Furcal), two Top 10 MVP finishes (Burrell and Wells) and one cautionary tale.

You could do this with any Top 100 prospect list in the Baseball America archive.

The 2005 top 10 had Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer and Felix Hernandez. It also had Joel Guzman, Casey Kotchman and Andy Marte. The 1996 Top 10 had Derek Jeter, Vlad Guerrero and Andruw Jones. It also had Ruben Rivera, Karim Garcia and Ben Davis. The 1990 Top 10 had Juan Gonzalez, Sandy Alomar Jr. and John Olerud. It also had Ben McDonald, Kiki Jones and Eric Anthony.

Can’t-miss prospects don’t exist. That’s part of the reason the Yankees signed Russell Martin. Montero is close to a sure thing, but he hasn’t done anything at the big league level just yet, and the depth of the Yankees system is as much a strength as the presence of Montero and Manny Banuelos at the top .

Let there be no doubt, quality matters. But in player development, so does quantity.

Associated Press photo

One more thing to consider about the Yankees quiet this offseason: It could be that the players who seem to make sense are not legitimately attainable.

This morning, Brian Cashman told Wally Matthews that the trade market includes a few starters, but none that he believes will make the team significantly better. “Could I go out and get a starter? Yes, I could,” Cashman told ESPNNewYork. “But there’s just not much out there.”

It’s easy to dream up trade scenarios — I myself have written about the idea of trading for Fausto Carmona or Wandy Rodriguez and any number of unattainable pipe dreams — but cost matters, availability matters, and guys like Felix Hernandez and Josh Johnson do not seem realistic. Make up all the trade packages you want, it seems next to impossible that a young, non-Greinke ace will be traded. In Cashman’s words: “That ain’t happening.”

When Cashman speaks on the record, it’s always hard to know how much is reality and how much posturing. He’s indicated a willingness to stick with internal options, especially if Andy Pettitte comes back, but would he really stay internal with Sergio Mitre as his fifth starter and Ivan Nova his fourth? I find that hard to believe, but then again, even the thin free agent market could provide upgrades for the back of the rotation.

At the top though, it may be that Cashman is telling the truth and front-line starters are not likely to be moved at a reasonable cost. We’ve already learned that the Yankees cost for Zack Greinke would have included Jesus Montero, Eduardo Nunez and one of their top pitching prospects. That’s not surprising. It’s a higher price than the Brewers paid, but as I wrote yesterday, the Yankees don’t have the pieces to perfectly match what the Brewers offered. If they couldn’t match it, the Yankees would have to top it.

It might be frustrating, but building a team isn’t only about finding pieces, it’s about finding pieces that actually fit.

His stint in New York was rather forgettable, but Austin Kearns turned an otherwise solid 2010 into a $1.3-million deal with the Indians.

One year ago, Kearns had to settle for a minor league deal. Cleveland invited him to big league camp, he made the team and he hit .272/.354/.419 before a deadline deal to the Yankees, who gave up Zach McAllister for the rental. With the Yankees, he hit for no power and only a .235 average.

The Yankees need a right-handed reserve outfielder, but after his stint last season, it would have been hard to see the Yankees bringing Kearns back.

Speaking of not coming back: Chan Ho Park has agreed to a deal with the Orix Buffaloes. Try to contain your disappointment.

At some point yesterday morning, around the time the Zack Greinke news spread to major media outlets, the state of panic in the Yankees fan base seemed to reach a new peak for this offseason.

The concern was very mild when the Derek Jeter negotiations turned sour. Then the Red Sox traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Then the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford. Then Philadelphia got Cliff Lee. Then Milwaukee landed Greinke. One by one, big pieces have come off the board, and all the Yankees have done is re-sign two of their own plus a catcher who hasn’t hit in two years.

My question is this: Is the concern centered on wanting the Yankees to do something or wanting them to do anything? In other words, is there something specific Brian Cashman has done wrong and needs to fix, or are his patience and silence making things uncomfortable?

Cashman hasn’t done much, but I’m not sure he’s truly missed out on very much either. I would never argue that he’s had a good offseason, but looking at a few common complaints, it might also be too early to claim he’s had a bad one.

Top free agents got away
Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford signed before Cliff Lee, and that essentially kept the Yankees out of the running for either of them. Outfield wasn’t a priority, pitching was, and Lee might or might not have been a fair fight. Otherwise, the biggest free agents who fit with the Yankees, signed with the Yankees: Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.

Trade targets have gone elsewhere
There was obvious frustration yesterday when Zack Greinke landed in Milwaukee for a package of young players that did not include a single premier prospect, but the Yankees didn’t match what the Royals were looking for in up the middle talent. It’s not even certain the Yankees considered Greinke a viable option in New York. Otherwise, most completed trades have been for players who either didn’t fit for the Yankees (Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla) or are infinitely replaceable (Brendan Ryan, Josh Willingham). Those deals to not make or break the Yankees season.

The lineup has not improved
The lineup didn’t need to improve. The Yankees scored the most runs in baseball last season, and that was despite down years from Jeter, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. The one position that needed a boost, catcher, has been addressed with a reasonable $4-million deal with Russell Martin. It would have been surprising to see the Yankees overhaul the lineup. Staying with more or less the same starting nine is not a shock, nor should it be a cause for concern.

The rotation still has holes
This is true. Andy Pettitte still hasn’t made a decision, and that’s as expected. Lee was supposed to make everything better, but he signed elsewhere despite a bigger offer from the Yankees. At the time, Cashman said he would be patient, that the cost in terms of both free agents and trade chips would go through the roof for a while. That was less than a week ago. In that time, who, aside from Greinke, has come off the board who would have helped the Yankees rotation?

The bullpen still has holes
Perhaps the most legitimate gripe of the Yankees offseason. The team hasn’t necessarily been stingy — it did award the second largest left-handed reliever contract of the winter — but it hasn’t been aggressive either. The relief market still has plenty of viable options, but the a lot of late-inning options have come off the board (some on surprisingly large and lengthy deals, but that’s the going rate for relievers these days).

Eduardo Nunez is the best hitter on the bench
Not to knock on Noony, but the Yankees bench remains incredibly young and inexperienced, but it should come as no shock that Cashman is taking his time finding reserves and role players. Last year he let the market for Marcus Thames fall all the way to a minor league deal, and that was arguably his best offseason signing. The Randy Winn deal, of course, didn’t work so well. The Yankees still have a very real need for a fourth outfielder, and an experienced utility man wouldn’t hurt, but there are plenty of those options available.

Associated Press photos of Crawford, Rodriguez and Kerry Wood

From my good friend Marc Carig…

The Yankees have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Luis Vizcaino. He will reportedly make $750,000 if he makes the big league roster.

You might remember Vizcaino from 2007 when he pitched out of the Yankees bullpen, having come over from Arizona in the Randy Johnson trade. He hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2009, but he has good number in the Dominican this winter (11.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 11 K). That includes a stretch of one hit allowed in nine appearances.

Who’s next? Derek Jeter took his turn as the most discussed player of the Yankees offseason. Then Cliff Lee. Then Zack Greinke. So who’s next in the center of trade speculation and free agent guesswork? Five candidates:

Gavin Floyd
For those not looking for pie-in-the-sky scenarios, Floyd might be the reasonable alternative. Fausto Carmona or Matt Garza might also fit into this category. Floyd could legitimately help the Yankees rotation, and he’s currently with a team that might actually have reason to trade him.

Felix Hernandez
Joel Sherman has already made the case that the Yankees should immediately do whatever it takes to land the Mariners ace. Seattle, predictably, seems against the idea of trading him, but I don’t think that will stop anyone from wondering and dreaming.

Andy Pettitte
He’s so far been in the background. Every time Pettitte’s situation has nearly bubbled to the surface, it’s been overshadowed by some other move or potential move. Throughout the Winter Meetings he was secondary to Lee, then the Mariano Rivera signing became official, then Russell Martin signed, then Greinke came to the front of the trade market. Could be time for the Pettitte discussion to take center stage.

Rafael Soriano
Adrian Beltre isn’t a fit for the Yankees, so Soriano seems to be the top remaining free agent who could make a significant difference next season. The cost would surely be extreme — the Yankees are going to have to battle with closer money — and it’s still unclear whether Soriano would be open to taking a setup gig.

Carlos Zambrano
He might be leader in the clubhouse because — whether legitimate or not —  Zambrano already seems to have generated some Yankees speculation this winter. The pros are obvious (been an elite pitcher in the past, familiar with Larry Rothschild), but the cons are just as obvious (massive contract, unreliable at best).

Associated Press photo

Poor Zack Greinke. His turn as the most desirable pitcher in baseball didn’t even last a week.

In the days leading up to Greinke’s trade to the Brewers, the Royals were said to be focused on up-the-middle prospects, and that’s exactly what they got. Because the prospects package was built around a shortstop and center fielder, it really doesn’t matchup especially well with the Yankees minor league system, but the Yankees could have matched the raw talent. It simply would have taken a lot to do so.

Here’s what the Brewers are sending to Kansas City.

SS Alcides Escobar
Had a disappointing first full season in the big leagues — .235/.288/.326 — but he also just turned 24 and entered the 2010 season as the top shortstop prospect in baseball. The Yankees don’t have anyone quite like Escobar, but 10 months ago, Baseball America ranked Jesus Montero as a slightly better overall prospect. If the Royals wanted a premier young shortstop, the Yankees couldn’t have matched that (Eduardo Nunez doesn’t matchup with Escobar), but they could have topped the headline talent.

CF Lorenzo Cain
Finally healthy, Cain  spent 2010 establishing himself as a premier prospect. He hit .317/.402/.432 between Double-A and Triple-A, then got to the big leagues and hit .306/.348/.415 with seven stolen bases in 43 games. He’s considered an elite defender. The easy comparison here is Brett Gardner, though Cain is three years younger.

RHP Jake Odorizzi
A supplemental first-round pick in 2008,  Odorizzi was actually labeled as a “lesser version of Zack Greinke” in Baseball America’s breakdown of the top prospects in the Midwest League. Hard for me to say for sure, but Odorizzi probably ranks closer to the Yankees top three pitching prospects (Betances, Banuelos, Brackman) than their second tier (Noesi, Phelps, Warren, etc.).

RHP Jeremy Jeffress/PTBNL
Another former first-round pick, Jeffress moved to the bullpen this year and moved quickly to the big leagues. He’s drawn raves for his raw talent, but he’s also had multiple drug suspensions. The fourth piece in the deal has been reported as Jeffress, and it’s been reported as a player to be named later. If it’s Jeffress, then you’re looking at a second legitimate pitching prospect. If not, the fact Jeffress was floated in earlier rumors, makes me think the PTBNL is at least fairly significant.

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As long as the Royals weren’t sold on the idea of landing a shortstop, a package of Montero, Gardner, Brackman and Nova probably would have topped the Brewers offer, but that’s a massive group. If I weren’t convinced already — I was — the fact Escobar was traded makes me absolutely certain the Yankees would have been forced to part with Montero to get Greinke. He’s a bigger prospect than anyone in the Brewers package, but that’s the only way the Yankees could have made up for not having a comparable shortstop. Guys like Greinke never come come cheap, and he certainly didn’t come cheap today.

Now that Russell Martin is on the roster, it’s likely both Jesus Montero and Austin Romine will open the season the minor leagues. In theory, each should each be in Triple-A, but that’s a logjam the Yankees don’t want.

“They need to catch, so that’s something we’ll deal with if we get there,” vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman said. “I wouldn’t want them to split right now.”

Montero and Romine split catching duties in the lower levels, but at this point, both need to get used to catching every day. They also need repetition behind the plate so that they improve defensively.

Obviously the Yankees won’t set anything in stone right now, but the arrival of Martin could force Romine back to Trenton, where last season he hit .268 with a second half that was worse than his first. I’m sure he’d rather move forward, but repeating the level might not be a waste of time.

• So far so good with Brandon Laird’s work in the outfield. Newman said the Yankees are convinced he can play the corners. Left field at Yankee Stadium might be a little spacious for him, but they think he could play right field in the Bronx, and he could play left in most parks. “He’s going to do well enough out there that he’s going to be an option,” Newman said. The Yankees still think Laird is better defensively at first and third, but he could be a legitimate four-corners option as soon as 2011.

• For whatever it’s worth — and it might not be worth much — I was impressed with Laird’s glove when I saw him in spring training. Much better than I was expecting. He made some pretty nice plays at third.

• If the Yankees feel the need to move one of their prospect starting pitchers into the Major League bullpen next season, they can make that adjustment quickly. There’s no need to make that switch out of spring training. “When they get to Triple-A, they don’t need a full year doing that,” Newman said. “They need a month or two of adjustment. They still need innings. You don’t want to limit innings by putting them prematurely in the bullpen.”

• Pretty standard situation for all of the players so far invited to camp on minor league deals. Neal Cotts is a slight exception because of his considerable big league experience and the fact he’s coming back from injury. “It’s a rehab deal with him,” Newman said.

• Romulo Sanchez is out of options. He’ll need to make the big league roster or pass through waivers this spring. I believe — though I forgot to ask — that Sanchez has been designated for assignment once before, meaning even if he clears, he could opt for free agency rather than accept a minor league assignment.

• Last month the International League transactions listed Matt DeSalvo having been assigned to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. It’s not true. The Yankees have not re-signed him.

• One lower-level note: Catching prospect J.R. Murphy will continue to get the bulk of his time behind the plate, but he’ll also see time at third base and right field next season. He didn’t hit much last season, but the Yankees believe in his bat and believe he’s athletic enough to play different positions. They haven’t decided whether he’ll be in Charleston or Tampa next year.