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The ones who got away: The starting pitcher market

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 13, 2011 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

We keep hearing — and I keep writing — that this winter’s free agent market offered very little in terms of rotation options. But just how true is that statement?

The Yankees focused on Cliff Lee and hoped that Andy Pettitte would decide to pitch again, and now that Lee is gone and Pettitte is still uncertain, there are few alternatives available. Should the Yankees have been more aggressive early? Have they missed out on legitimate pieces because of their pursuit of Lee?

Using the handy free agent tracker over at MLBTradeRumors — I prefer that one to the MLB.com version — I’ve listed every starting pitcher who has signed this winter. I’d say the idea of a thin market is absolutely accurate. This list offers very few sure things, and although hindsight is never fair, it’s worth looking back to the month and a half before Lee signed — and those frantic days when Lee was making his decision — to try to find missed opportunities. The Dodgers were the most aggressive team in the beginning of the offseason, re-signing Ted Lilly before he hit the open market and locking up two more starters before the end of November.

Off the board quickly
As you might expect, most of the early moves were re-signings.
This period covers the start of spring training through the Winter Meetings.

Hiroki Kuroda
Dodgers: 1 year, $12 million
Kuroda will be 36 this season and he’s spent his entire three-year career with the Dodgers. He’s been good for them — losing record but a 3.60 ERA and a good strikeout-to-walk ratio — and it’s hard to say whether he would have been willing to leave, especially with the Dodgers making an early push.

Jon Garland
Dodgers: 1 year, $5 million (plus vesting option)
In retrospect, this is the kind of durable starting pitcher who might have helped the back of the Yankees rotation. Nothing flashy, but Garland is consistently good for 200 innings (of course, we said the same about Javier Vazquez). His career NL ERA is 3.74. His career AL ERA is 4.47.

Jorge De La Rosa
Rockies: three years, $32 million
The Rockies had a deal to re-sign De La Rosa in place before the first of December. It was the crew at FoxSports that broke the news, and they noted that De La Rosa wanted to stay in Colorado. They also reported: “The Yankees also have checked in, as they do on most prominent free agents, but their priority is Lee.”

Jake Westbrook
Cardinals: two years, $16.5 million (plus mutual option)
The Cardinals traded for Westbrook last season, then they moved quickly to re-sign him this winter. Westbrook is a bit of an injury risk, he came back from Tommy John surgery last season and pitched well, especially after moving to the National League.

Erik Bedard
Mariners: one year, $1 million
This market has no shortage of Bedard-type starters. He’s made a total of 30 starts in the past three seasons, none of them coming in 2010. The Mariners are still hoping to get something out of him, and they moved quickly to re-sign him to a non-guaranteed deal.

Javier Vazquez
Marlins: one year, $7 million
No chance the Yankees were going to re-sign him. No chance Vazquez was going to try to come back. Best for everyone to move on, and that’s exactly what they did.

Aaron Harang
Padres: one year, $4 million (plus mutual option)
Harang is from San Diego. In the past three years, pitching in the NL Central, he’s gone 18-38 with a 4.71 ERA and a steadily increasing WHIP. If I’m the Yankees, I’d rather take my chances with Sergio Mitre, but that’s just me.

Within the Cliff Lee window
From the Winter Meetings through Lee’s signing with Philadelphia.
This seems to be when the Lee talks were at their peak.

Scott Olson
Pirates: one year, $500,000 with heavy incentives (plus club option)
Olson’s first big league season showed promise, but since then he’s been pretty bad while pitching for the Nationals and Marlins. Now it’s the Pirates who have signed him. From Florida to Washington to Pittsburgh. That says a lot.

Vicente Padilla
Dodgers: 1 year, $2 million
Early in his career, Padilla had some good years with the Phillies, but he’s since become a back-of-the-rotation starter capable of stringing together a few dominant outings. Injuries last season made him even more of a risk than usual, and the Dodgers might use him in the bullpen instead of the rotation.

Dustin Moseley
Padres: one year, $900,000
The Yankees offered Moseley a Major League deal, but he decided to shopping for a better offer and found on in San Diego, where he could land a spot in the Padres rotation. Moseley was a solid spot starter for the Yankees last season.

Kevin Correia
Pirates: two years, $8 million
News of the agreement broke on December 8. Hard to know what to expect rom Correia. He’s spent all of his career in the NL West, and his ERA has been a roller coaster the past four years, from 3.45 to 6.05 to 3.91 to 5.40.

Ryan Rowland-Smith
Astros: one year, $750,000
Last season, the young lefty won one game and had a 6.75 ERA with the Mariners. He was solid the three years before that, but he’s generally been more effective as a reliever than as a starter.

Rich Harden
Athletics: one year, $1.5 million (plus incentives)
Harden is coming off another injury plagued season that saw him pitching out of the bullpen in September. He might fall into a bullpen role again this season. When he did pitch last season, he carried a 5.58 ERA in Texas.

After Cliff Lee
Amazing how quiet the market has been since Lee came off the board.
Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Kevin Millwood and others are still out there.

Chien-Ming Wang
Nationals: one year, $1 million with heavy incentives
One day after Lee signed with the Phillies, Wang re-signed with the Nationals. You know the Wang story, so I’m not going to rehash it here. There were — and are — several Wang-type starters on the market.

Brandon Webb
Rangers: one year, $3 million (plus heavy incentives)
Webb has one big league start in the past two seasons. He was once among the best starting pitchers in the game, but reports this fall of a low-80s fastball in instructional league were not encouraging.

Brad Penny
Tigers: one year, $3 million
The most recent big league starter to come off the board, Penny is one of those risk-reward starters who have been fairly prevalent in this free agent market. He pitched well but made only nine starts last season.

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150 Responses to “The ones who got away: The starting pitcher market”

  1. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 2:33 pm

    Really shows just how awful the market is.

  2. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 2:33 pm

    I wanted Kuroda when it seemed like the Dodgers were not going to bring him back, but then boom they did.

  3. Pat M. January 13th, 2011 at 2:36 pm

    Trade for Carlos Zambrano and take on most of if not all of his contract for the 2 years and Cashman will surrender very little in return…..We’re getting close to crunch time ……While you’re at it Brian, you need to find a better than average arm for the bullpen…And then open the season and find out what you need by May 30th….The other option is to do exactly what you’re doing and the club could be looking up at Boston to the tune of 8 games out

  4. upstate kate January 13th, 2011 at 2:39 pm

    no one up there too exciting

  5. LGY January 13th, 2011 at 2:41 pm

    Kuroda was the only intriguing option. Thought they should get him if no Lee. Was surprised he didn’t test the market more. Maybe he really likes LA.

  6. Mike in Harrisburg January 13th, 2011 at 2:43 pm

    I respect the school of thought that values bad moves not made as much as good moves made, so I don’t view this offseason as a failure. However I am slightly wary of a strategy that seems to rely on catching lightning in a bottle from at least one of three slots in the starting rotation. If the back end steps up Cashman will look like a genius and if it doesn’t he’ll rightly get a great deal of the blame.

  7. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 2:45 pm

    bronx jeers-

    dock ellis hitting every red batter that came up:

    http://www.nonoadockumentary.com/2010/05/mayday/

    Donald Hall poetically described the game action:

    “The first pitch to Pete Rose was directly toward his head,” as Dock expresses it, “not actually to hit him, ” but as “the message, to let him know that he was going to get hit. More or less to press his lips. I knew if I could get close to the head that I could get them in the body. Because they’re looking to protect their head, they’ll give me the body.” The next pitch was behind him. “The next one, I hit him in the side.”

    Pete Rose’s response was even more devastating than Dock had anticipated. He smiled. Then he picked the ball up, where it had fallen beside him, and gently, underhanded, tossed it back to Dock. Then he lit for first as if trying out for the Olympics.

    As Dock says, with huge approval, “You have to be good, to be a hot dog.”

    As Rose bent down to pick up the ball, he had exchanged a word with Joe Morgan who was batting next. [...] Morgan taunted Rose, “He doesn’t like you anyway. You’re a white guy.”

    Dock hit Morgan in the kidneys with his first pitch.

    “The next batter was Driessen. I threw a ball to him. High and inside. The next one, I hit him in the back.”

    [...]

    Bases loaded, no outs. Tony Perez, Cincinnati first baseman, came to bat. He did not dig in. “There was no way I could hit him. He was running. The first one I threw behind him, over his head, up against the screen, but it came back off the glass, and they didn’t advance. I threw behind him because he was backing up, but then he stepped in front of the ball. The next three pitches, he was running. . . . I walked him.” A run came in. “The next hitter was Johnny Bench. I tried to deck him twice. I threw at his jaw, and he moved. I threw at the back of his head, and he moved.”

    (more if you click on the link above)
    (donald hall, by the way, is one of the best baseball writers ever by the way even though he was a poet)

  8. austinmac January 13th, 2011 at 2:46 pm

    SAS,

    I think Doc Todd was making a joke.

    Pat M.,

    I agree completely except I don’t think there will be anything available by May 30th. Doing nothing is simply not a realistic option for the Yankees. They cannot effectively compete without another innings eating starter. Money should be the least of their concerns.

  9. LGY January 13th, 2011 at 2:47 pm

    I think Nova is going to be a lot better than the doom and gloomers expect. He is ready to give this team 200 innings, no limitations attached.

  10. Rich in NJ January 13th, 2011 at 2:53 pm

    The worst thing the Yankees can do is to pretend that they can win the WS this year when the facts are contra. So they shouldn’t make any short-sighted moves until they see how the players they already have perform.

  11. YsGuy January 13th, 2011 at 2:55 pm

    agree with lgy about nova, and hughes will continue to improve, too

  12. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:00 pm

    “That idea of sharing the 5th spot is sort of what they did last year with Nova nad Mitre…pretty good idea. Breaks 2 rookies in at the same time instead of 1 per year.”

    bojo-

    like i said , and the list by chad above shows it, the yankees are in a bit of an unusual situation. baseball is flush with cash and the yankees can’t but any one because all the decent ones are signed up.

    i’d like to see the yankees give two young guys one spot and split it 3-4 innings each every five days . maybe nova and phelps.

    when a raw young guy first starts, it takes them 20 pitches an inning any way so why not plan it instead of reacting as an emergency when they need to be rescued in the 4th or fifth anyway?

    it’s does break in two guys too as you said.
    they’re not going to do it, but i think it might not be a bad idea if they tried it.

  13. G. Love January 13th, 2011 at 3:01 pm

    I wonder if the Yankees are doing the old, “Well, we don’t really need a 5th starter until such and such date” so they are looking at CC, Hughes, AJ and Nova as the core of the rotation until they find another pitcher.

    Dangerous stuff there Cashman if that’s the case.

    If the Cubs dangled Zambrano at this point you have to seriously look into it.

    While I’m concerned the Red Sox are going to come out of the gate like gangbusters, I’m more concerned about the mental state of a Yankee team that knows the front office is sitting and waiting to piece it together until the cost is right for a acquisition.

    “The cavalry is coming to save us” is not the mentality I want this club to have.

    That said, the one thing we all have to try to remember about Boston is if they are 1st half front runners, we’ll catch them by labor day if not sooner.

    I do think they’ll come out of the gate like world beaters, but the first time they get counter punched on the chin hard, I expect them to wilt. I also think their optimistic view on injured players coming back 100% and staying healthy is a little too optimistic.

    I also think our optimistic view that all our guys are going to have huge bounce back years is a bit too optimistic.

  14. Rich in NJ January 13th, 2011 at 3:02 pm

    “Trade for Carlos Zambrano and take on most of if not all of his contract for the 2 years and Cashman will surrender very little in return…”

    Pat M

    The only way I would have interest in Zambrano is if the Cubs generously subsidized the second year. I don’t want the Yankees to be hamstring in 2012 because they could have several areas of need, depending on how this season plays out.

  15. 108 stitches January 13th, 2011 at 3:04 pm

    Pat M. January 13th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
    Trade for Carlos Zambrano and take on most of if not all of his contract for the 2 years and Cashman will surrender very little in return…..We’re getting close to crunch time ……While you’re at it Brian, you need to find a better than average arm for the bullpen…And then open the season and find out what you need by May 30th….The other option is to do exactly what you’re doing and the club could be looking up at Boston to the tune of 8 games out

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    You hit the nail on the head, Pat.
    The waiting game hasn’t worked and the schedule shows 107 games played by the time the 7/31 trading deadline arrives.
    If an AL East team were to come out of the gate like the Rays did in 2010, the remaining 55 games would be an uphill climb.
    Cashman is chancing that no injuries happen from April through July. If so, some good young talent would have to be traded that were not part of the plan or else throw up a white flag on the 2011 season.

  16. Rich in NJ January 13th, 2011 at 3:05 pm

    “I also think our optimistic view that all our guys are going to have huge bounce back years is a bit too optimistic”

    It doesn’t really matter what anyone (including the Yankees) thinks will happen. The best course is to put the organization in the best position to respond to any shortfall, and to do it without sentimentality.

  17. Bronx Jeers January 13th, 2011 at 3:05 pm

    Randy,

    Somewhere on youtube or somewhere there’s a Yellow Submarine style animated video that portrays Doc’s no-hitter and I believe Doc narrates it.

    IIRC, Doc thought he had an off-day never realizing that the “party” actually began on the off day and carried over to gameday. I know he walked and hit a ton of guys. Sort of like AJ’s no-hitter only AJ pitches like that stone-cold sober.

    Ironically Doc was a drug counselor in the years before his death. Of course it was the worst drug of them all (the legal one) that did him in.

    thanks for the link.

  18. G. Love January 13th, 2011 at 3:06 pm

    LGY,

    What evidence do you have that Nova is ready for 200 innings in a major league rotation?

    What we saw last year was the first time through an order he was great and the 2nd time he wasn’t so great. He’s also one of those young pitchers Verducci points out made a huge jump in innings pitched last season and has the potential to get injured.

    I’m not saying he’s garbage, but he’s a young pitcher who is still developing and expecting him to throw 200 innings off a very small sample where he didn’t exactly dominate is a little bit of wishful thinking. Ian Kennedy looked amazing in his sept. callup in 2007 and then in 2008 couldn’t make it past the 2nd inning most nights.

    The way to rotation shakes out today Nova will be matched up against other teams 3 and 4 starters rather than against their 5′s.

    It’s not going to be a cakewalk. To get to 200 innings it means you pitch well and get deep into the game most nights.

  19. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:07 pm

    “I think Nova is going to be a lot better than the doom and gloomers expect. He is ready to give this team 200 innings, no limitations attached.”

    lgy-

    if nova could do this, it’d be great . than the yankees could bring up phelps and another guy for the fifth spot. i think because of the randomness of ho does well and who doesn’t it’s better to throw quantity at the problem instead of one guy.

    i would say with nova even , there’s as much chance that he’ll have a 7.00 era as he’ll do well and get 200 innings in.

    actually , it’s probably less likely he’ll throw 200 inning because not many mlb pitchers do it.

    i agree there’s optimism about him. he could be good.

  20. mick January 13th, 2011 at 3:09 pm

    Nova with 30 starts averaging one more than he usually gives, say 6 innings, is 180 innings.
    I would sign for that.

  21. DocTodd January 13th, 2011 at 3:10 pm

    yep,just joking that the Yankees have been painfully deliberate in their pursuit of the bottom feeders left on the free agent market……

  22. Doreen January 13th, 2011 at 3:10 pm

    Gotta say.

    Saw Zambrano pitch in SFran this past August.

    He’s not someone I’d want to have around long term, for sure.

  23. 108 stitches January 13th, 2011 at 3:12 pm

    The Cubs are looking to trim payroll. With Garza under cost control, he replaces Zambrano. Unless Jim Hendry is greedy, he’ll eat a portion of Zambrano’s remaining $38M 2-year deal ending in 2012.
    Burnett’s contract is more of an albatross with his contract running throuh 2013 and he’s 3 years older than Zambrano.

  24. mick January 13th, 2011 at 3:13 pm

    What we are looking for is to replace Andy. Zambrano, for at least 2 seasons, would do that, who cares what the cost.
    Let Nova and Mitre fight it out for the 5th spot.

  25. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:15 pm

    What evidence do you have that Nova is ready for 200 innings in a major league rotation?

    What we saw last year was the first time through an order he was great and the 2nd time he wasn’t so great. He’s also one of those young pitchers Verducci points out made a huge jump in innings pitched last season and has the potential to get injured.

    I’m not saying he’s garbage, but he’s a young pitcher who is still developing and expecting him to throw 200 innings off a very small sample where he didn’t exactly dominate is a little bit of wishful thinking. Ian Kennedy looked amazing in his sept. callup in 2007 and then in 2008 couldn’t make it past the 2nd inning most nights.

    The way to rotation shakes out today Nova will be matched up against other teams 3 and 4 starters rather than against their 5?s.

    Physically he is capable of throwing 200 innings. He threw 187 last year so he has no pitching limitations on him. And the year before he threw 164 including winter ball, so he only jumped his innings up 20 from the previous year and 20 from the year before that (unless winterball is included).

    He had no trouble navigating orders in the minors, and perhaps his fatigue at the end of the year had something to do with that. And certainly continuing to improve as a pitcher will help to correct it. He has 3 pretty good pitches, and if he keeps working to improve the curve and the change he will fare better.

    Also, matching up against whomever doesn’t mean anything. By the time you get into the season no one is matching up with their opposing number.

  26. BoJo January 13th, 2011 at 3:15 pm

    http://www.funnyordie.com/vide.....-lsd-no-no

  27. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:16 pm

    And of course Nova does not actually have to throw 200 innings. And he should be ready to face the majors because he has nearly 600 minor league innings including 300 between AA and AAA, and his season in AAA last year was dominant.

  28. heyman_sux January 13th, 2011 at 3:16 pm

    Nova with 30 starts averaging one more than he usually gives, say 6 innings, is 180 innings.
    I would sign for that.
    ____

    Joba was the 4 starter in ’09 and ended up with ~160IP. It’s not a stretch to say that Nova might be able to approximate Joba’s ’09 production

  29. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:20 pm

    bronx jeers-

    donald hall wrote a really good baseball book: Dock Ellis in the Country of Baseball

    http://www.amazon.com/Dock-Ell.....067165988X

    it’s about way more than dock ellis.it’s about baseball’s place in america.

  30. BoJo January 13th, 2011 at 3:21 pm

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO281JqXQdc

  31. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:23 pm

    “And he should be ready to face the majors because he has nearly 600 minor league innings including 300 between AA and AAA, and his season in AAA last year was dominant.”

    i agree he’s ready.

    it’s just that there should be a plan B ,just in case , because you never know with a young guy with this level of experience.

    but that said, you gotta go with him.
    training wheels off.

  32. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:25 pm

    “Burnett’s contract is more of an albatross with his contract running throuh 2013 and he’s 3 years older than Zambrano.”

    i don’t know why you say that, aj could be a hell of a reliever, maybe even a closer.

  33. Rich in NJ January 13th, 2011 at 3:28 pm

    “What we are looking for is to replace Andy. Zambrano, for at least 2 seasons, would do that, who cares what the cost.”

    If Zambrano blows up, everyone will care. The idea is to hedge the ample risk.

  34. austinmac January 13th, 2011 at 3:28 pm

    Nova is worth a shot as a fifth starter. He showed enough for that. To doubt he will pitch as LGY forecast does not make one a doom and gloomer. It is a rare young pitcher who can step up his rookie year to pitch that well. We should remember the old adage not to judge a player by March or September. He is one to hope for, but to expect him to be a solid fourth starter is a huge risk.

  35. Niblick January 13th, 2011 at 3:28 pm

    And Cashman just keeps on fiddling, while the Yankees burn.

    Good job, Cashie!

  36. mick January 13th, 2011 at 3:31 pm

    # Rich in NJ January 13th, 2011 at 3:28 pm

    “What we are looking for is to replace Andy. Zambrano, for at least 2 seasons, would do that, who cares what the cost.”

    If Zambrano blows up, everyone will care. The idea is to hedge the ample risk.
    ===================================================
    They have Andy’s money to pay Zambrano…..who is a sure thing?
    Zambrano would be fine here in a winning environment with veterans around him.

  37. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:32 pm

    He is one to hope for, but to expect him to be a solid fourth starter is a huge risk.

    Fourth starters suck. I think Nova can be league average to slightly below, which will have incredible value to the yankees. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA in his first taste of the big leagues.

  38. 108 stitches January 13th, 2011 at 3:33 pm

    Some say Nova was tipping his pitches after the 1st time around a lineup. Dave Eiland should have detected the problem. Hopefully Rothschild can fix the problem.

  39. mick January 13th, 2011 at 3:36 pm

    You can’t go into ST looking to fill 2 spots.
    The 5th starter, ok.
    Andy saying he won’t start the season is better than saying he is retired, as far as the price for a replacement is concerned.
    Zambrano would cost nothing other than money, but it looks like they are still in bargain basement mode.

  40. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 3:38 pm

    JackCurryYES Check out part of my interview with Robinson Cano from the Dominican Republic on YES HotStove at 6:30. Watched him workout Wed. Looks unreal

    *****

    It’s times like this when I really, really hate not having YES during the off-season. If anybody watches, will you please give me a recap????

  41. Frankg January 13th, 2011 at 3:38 pm

    I thought that Moseley was a “solid” spot starter, too, until I checked his record—2010: 4-4, 4.96 ERA. No big loss.

  42. G. Love January 13th, 2011 at 3:39 pm

    Nova should be in the rotation. No doubt about it. But people need to temper expectations for him. Expecting him to walk out and throw 200 innings is a bit ambitious. You’re not a doom and gloomer expecting him to struggle and adjust this season.

    When the Yankees had to choose between starting Nova in the post season or AJ who was horrid and gave them little reason to start him, they stuck with AJ.

  43. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    The only fly in the Zambrano ointment is that the Cubs aren’t going to trade him.

  44. 108 stitches January 13th, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:25 pm
    “Burnett’s contract is more of an albatross with his contract running throuh 2013 and he’s 3 years older than Zambrano.”

    i don’t know why you say that, aj could be a hell of a reliever, maybe even a closer.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Burnett doesn’t have either a reliever or closer mentality.

  45. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    All Nova has to do is pitch moderately well to below average for an entire season. He doesn’t even have to take a step forward or anything. The Yankees are not relying on Nova to break out like Hughes, he just has to pitch and not mess up too badly. All he has to do is maintain a sub 5 ERA. The future of the rotation does not rest on Nova, he literally just has to cover innings this year.

    I think he can do that.

  46. austinmac January 13th, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    Mick,

    I agree on Zambrano. The last sure thing signed with the Phillies. Zambrano appears to me worth the money risk. Of course, we don’t know if he is truly available.

    Jerkface,

    Yes, fourth starters do suck, particularly on bad teams with bad pitching. Nova, in my opinion, can be tried as the fifth starter, but to have him and another rookie +/or Mitre as well is not a winning recipe.

  47. disco stu January 13th, 2011 at 3:42 pm

    I don’t mind if the Yankees have to wait until mid-season to look make an impact deal for a front end starter (especially if Andy is retiring). I think the best chance to make the best deal at this point is to make a trade deadline deal with a team that as of right now is looking to compete and when they realize by the summer that 2011 is not going to end with a post season run, they look to dump payroll for prosepcts … enter the Yankees, who have plenty of chips to trade.

    What I dont want to see is Cashman and the Yankees brass convince themselves that they can “weather the storm” for the first couple of months with mostly in-house options. That is a huge leap of faith that could really backfire in so many ways. I think the Yankees need to add at least one more veteran starter if for no other reason than to provide depth that we currently dont have. I think in an ideal world Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre are fall back options during the season if injuries or poor performances occur with an established starting staff … the Yankees are exposing just how thin their rotation is right now by considering the notion of using BOTH to round out their roation by Opening Day.

  48. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:43 pm

    Expecting him to walk out and throw 200 innings is a bit ambitious.

    All LGY said is that he is ready to give 200 innings, no limitations attached. Which is true. He won’t have any pitch counts or innings limitation. The only thing stopping him from tossing 200 is how he performs.

  49. heyman_sux January 13th, 2011 at 3:43 pm

    All Nova has to do is pitch moderately well to below average for an entire season. He doesn?t even have to take a step forward or anything. The Yankees are not relying on Nova to break out like Hughes, he just has to pitch and not mess up too badly. All he has to do is maintain a sub 5 ERA. The future of the rotation does not rest on Nova, he literally just has to cover innings this year.
    ________

    Absolutely. That’s what most teams expect from their 4 starter. Except most teams don’t have the Yankees offense to back them up

  50. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    but to have him and another rookie +/or Mitre as well is not a winning recipe.

    The yankees have won with this recipe before. I think it is pretty obvious that Cashman is looking to upgrade either via FA or trade, but you all need to get on board with the possibility that nothing happens.

  51. BoJo January 13th, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    108 stitches January 13th, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    Burnett doesn’t have either a reliever or closer mentality.
    +++++++++++++++++
    There are still questions as to whether he has any mentality at all.

  52. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 3:45 pm

    “All he has to do is maintain a sub 5 ERA.”

    Right now, there are only two starters on the Yanks you can be confident will have a sub-5.00 ERA. So if no one else does and Nova throws to a 4.75 ERA, not so good.

  53. Bronx Jeers January 13th, 2011 at 3:48 pm

    Thanks again Randy. The book sounds very interesting.

    ——————————————————————————————————————

    You have to believe that the Yank hierarchy is at least considering Zambrano.

    I don’t know too many season-ticket holders but many of the few that I do know have opted out this season. And there’s lots of reasons as to why beyond the possible crappy rotation but one of the major perks of being a season ticket holder is the opportunity to purchase post season tix.

    To many there’s just no reason to hand over a big chunk of cash to the Yanks if there’s a legit threat of there being no postseason. Many would rather save the money and wait to buy single game tickets on the secondary market.

  54. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:48 pm

    Right now, there are only two starters on the Yanks you can be confident will have a sub-5.00 ERA. So if no one else does and Nova throws to a 4.75 ERA, not so good.

    AJ burnett can go either way. Mitre is probably bad, but if Burnett->Mitre combine for a 5+ era and whatever amount of innings, the Yankees will still win games and make the playoffs. And for a pitcher like Mitre, the more he sucks the more he will get replaced. Mitre has never been allowed to suck out loud in the rotation for more than a hand ful of starts.

  55. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 3:49 pm

    “All he has to do is maintain a sub 5 ERA. ”

    if he’s a fifth starter i’d consider his 2011 season a success if he had a 5.50 era if he could give a consistent amount of innings each game.

  56. jacksquat January 13th, 2011 at 3:49 pm

    Usually if a guy is tipping his pitches (Nova), there isn’t a pattern of it not affecting him until the 4th or 5th inning.

    It could have been fatigue, could have been control problems pitching from the stretch, could have been nervousness/anxiety, or the hitters just plain got used to his stuff.

    He was hitting 97 at times, and his curveball was good, so I think he has the stuff to be at least a decent major league pitcher. He just needs to get over whatever was affecting him in the middle innings last season.

  57. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 3:50 pm

    If Nova throws 200+ innings to a sub-5.00 ERA we should all dance and sing around the May Pole holding hands.

    But he won’t, and shouldn’t be expected to.

  58. austinmac January 13th, 2011 at 3:52 pm

    Jerkface,

    I don’t think anything will happen of significance for a starter. That leaves 60% of the rotation questionable. I believe that is a Pirate or Royal recipe which leaves a bad taste in one’s mouth in the 4th inning when the bullpen is again called.

  59. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 3:52 pm

    jerkface-

    I’m no Mitre fan, I’d look to the minors for starters to fill the rotation before Mitre.

  60. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 3:55 pm

    If Nova throws 200+ innings to a sub-5.00 ERA we should all dance and sing around the May Pole holding hands.

    I don’t think anyone is saying he is going to do this.

  61. Laura - I Bleed Blue January 13th, 2011 at 3:59 pm

    With Burnett and Zambrano, you have to pick your type of crazy. AJ can be a disaster on the mound, but he has never been the clubhouse cancer that Zambrano is.

    I say we stick with the brand of crazy we know and let the Big Z terrorize Cubs fans.

  62. tyanksfan36 January 13th, 2011 at 3:59 pm

    Erin

    Maybe they will air that segment online. That’s where I watch some of the stuff I miss. I don’t have Yes at all

  63. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    Ignore my earlier plea-however if they don’t post Robbie’s interview online, then I’ll resort to begging. :)

  64. G. Love January 13th, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    Wave,

    If Mitre is in our rotation and his being in the rotation is not caused by major injuries to CC or Phil, Cashman should resign…And I’m not kidding.

  65. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:03 pm

    Nova would be just fine as a # 5 starter.

    If he is expected to handle a higher slot there is risk.

    Having AJ, Nova and Pitcher X in the rotation introduces even more
    risk and uncertainty.

    It may be that this is the best we can do for now.

    This is particularly concerning if we are not going to have a superhuman BP as a backup.

    Still several weeks to ST. Let’s see what happens.

  66. Bronx Jeers January 13th, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    JackCurryYES Check out part of my interview with Robinson Cano from the Dominican Republic on YES HotStove at 6:30. Watched him workout Wed. Looks unreal

    ———————————————————————————————–

    Erin,

    I’ll be quick with my camera phone for you if there’s a shot of Cano sans shirt.

  67. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    Mitre should be the long man in place of Aceves.

  68. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:06 pm

    tyanksfan36 January 13th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
    Erin

    Maybe they will air that segment online. That?s where I watch some of the stuff I miss. I don?t have Yes at all

    ***********************
    ty- I actually just thought of that! LOL

    I have to go with Extra Innings during the season, so I only get the games, not the programming. So I’d have to watch it online no matter what. I just got overly excited when I saw that tweet! :)

  69. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:08 pm

    erin
    do they have Directv out by you?

  70. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:08 pm

    Bronx Jeers January 13th, 2011 at 4:04 pm

    Erin,

    I?ll be quick with my camera phone for you if there?s a shot of Cano sans shirt.

    ******************************

    :D

  71. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:10 pm

    what is zambrano’s reason for outbursts?
    i saw last years in dugout debacle but am not familiar with the others…
    seems like that one was about his teammates not playing hard.

  72. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:10 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
    erin
    do they have Directv out by you?

    **************************
    mick-they do, I just don’t have it. lol

  73. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:11 pm

    erin-get it.

  74. West Coast Yankee Fan January 13th, 2011 at 4:12 pm

    Interesting post Chad, thanks as always. I think though some may interpret that information as an excuse for the position the Yankees rotation is in right now as opposed to holding Hal and cashman responsible which I believe is true.

    It was a pointed strategic decision to put all their eggs in the Cliff Lee basket and to do so with an almost wanton arrogance that didn’t take into the possibility that he would turn down a substantial offer from the Yankees.

    They did so with no apparent alternative plan or strategy, especially since it was also a possibility that Andy Pettitte might not return. The result is a two man rotation that can be considered at all dependable and proven, with Hughes and Sabathia. Burnett does not fit into that category and neither do Nova and Mitre.

    Free agency is not the only way to acquire a pitcher. There is the trade market. One can speculate forever about why a trade never happened (it’s still possible but unlikely) but with a minor-league system flush with young pitching and catching prospects, Cashman should have been able to work out a deal. It may have taken some creativity, maybe a three-way, etc. Being a good GM doesn’t just involve handing out the owner’s checks.

    Bottom line is on this level, excuses do not matter at all. Results are what matter. A GM has to get the job done, especially one with $210 million dollars in chips in front of him.

    I don’t believe the above is gratuitous Cashman bashing. I think it is a fair and reasonable critique.

  75. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    mick-I’ll have to look into it.

  76. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    I think CC throws 200+ innings ~3 ERA
    I think Hughes throws 200 innings ~3.75 ERA
    I think Burnett throws ~180 innings ~4.50 ERA
    I think Nova throws ~165 innings ~4.50 ERA
    I think Mitre throws ~ 50 innings ~5.50 ERA and gets JUNKED
    I think Phelps/Noesi/Mitchell combine for 157 innings of ~4.50 ERA ball

    SUPREMELY OPTIMISTIC

    I think its realistic to assume 972 innings out of your starters, thats 6 innings per start for 162 games. The Yankees got 973 last year.

  77. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:17 pm

    Free agency is not the only way to acquire a pitcher. There is the trade market. One can speculate forever about why a trade never happened (it’s still possible but unlikely) but with a minor-league system flush with young pitching and catching prospects, Cashman should have been able to work out a deal. It may have taken some creativity, maybe a three-way, etc. Being a good GM doesn’t just involve handing out the owner’s checks.
    ================================
    What we are left with is a crapshoot. No team will help us w/out giving up our young pitching.
    I believe the team direction is in keeping them and piecing together a staff. At least for this year.
    What’s out there isn’t worth it anyway.

  78. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 4:18 pm

    jerkface-

    Are you supremely optimistic about the Yanks’ chances in 2011 – the results you project would have the Yanks winning 100+ games – or are you saying your projections are supremely optimistic?

  79. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:18 pm

    erin-what do you have now?

  80. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:19 pm

    Jerkface-

    Your the stat expert.

    Let’s assume that your #’s above are accurate.

    My question to you is, where would that combined starter ERA place the Yankee rotation in the AL standings based on last years numbers ?

    I hope my question is clear enough ?

    Thanks.

  81. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:20 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
    erin-what do you have now?

    ***********************
    premium cable

  82. Cashman needs to go January 13th, 2011 at 4:20 pm

    West Coast Yankee Fan January 13th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
    Interesting post Chad, thanks as always. I think though some may interpret that information as an excuse for the position the Yankees rotation is in right now as opposed to holding Hal and cashman responsible which I believe is true.

    It was a pointed strategic decision to put all their eggs in the Cliff Lee basket and to do so with an almost wanton arrogance that didn’t take into the possibility that he would turn down a substantial offer from the Yankees.

    They did so with no apparent alternative plan or strategy, especially since it was also a possibility that Andy Pettitte might not return. The result is a two man rotation that can be considered at all dependable and proven, with Hughes and Sabathia. Burnett does not fit into that category and neither do Nova and Mitre.

    Free agency is not the only way to acquire a pitcher. There is the trade market. One can speculate forever about why a trade never happened (it’s still possible but unlikely) but with a minor-league system flush with young pitching and catching prospects, Cashman should have been able to work out a deal. It may have taken some creativity, maybe a three-way, etc. Being a good GM doesn’t just involve handing out the owner’s checks.

    Bottom line is on this level, excuses do not matter at all. Results are what matter. A GM has to get the job done, especially one with $210 million dollars in chips in front of him.

    I don’t believe the above is gratuitous Cashman bashing. I think it is a fair and reasonable critique.

    ***************************

    Keep this up and I’ll have to put your picture right next to the one of Randy I on my shrine of excellent Lohud Blog posters… :-)

  83. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:21 pm

    premium cable
    ==========
    is that your choice?

  84. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:23 pm

    Are you supremely optimistic about the Yanks’ chances in 2011 – the results you project would have the Yanks winning 100+ games – or are you saying your projections are supremely optimistic?

    I don’t think that is a 100 win projection. 60% of the rotation is being projected to be below average.

  85. Bronx Jeers January 13th, 2011 at 4:23 pm

    what is zambrano’s reason for outbursts?
    i saw last years in dugout debacle but am not familiar with the others…

    ————————————————————————————————————

    He felt Derrick Lee dogged it on a liner that was scorched down the line but he was mistaken.

    There’s no doubt he’s a hothead but then again look who was running that ship.

    It doesn’t seem too long ago that players/managers that blew a fuse were considered “colorful”. Now they suspend you and send you to counseling.

  86. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:25 pm

    He felt Derrick Lee dogged it on a liner that was scorched down the line but he was mistaken.

    There’s no doubt he’s a hothead but then again look who was running that ship.

    It doesn’t seem too long ago that players/managers that blew a fuse were considered “colorful”. Now they suspend you and send you to counseling.
    ===================================
    What about his other outbursts?
    Does anyone know?

  87. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:26 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
    premium cable
    ==========
    is that your choice?

    ***********************
    yes. I’ve never had any issues with it.

    I just always love to complain when I have to watch the other team’s feed with Extra Innings. ;)

  88. Cashman needs to go January 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm

    What about his other outbursts?
    Does anyone know
    *****************

    I think they were umpire related (ie squeezing him on pitches)…

    i’m sure if he pitched on a team that is considered better than the cubs and has shown that they will be competitve all year round that he’d he less inclined to blow up at every error his teammates make and missed call by the umpire…winning kind of takes the edge off of some people in that they don’t feel that they have to be perfect all of the time….

  89. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm

    erin

    i never understood why , if given a choice, people stay with cable.
    is it the money difference?
    then again 90% of my tv watching is yankees

  90. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm

    Jerkface-

    Your the stat expert.

    Let’s assume that your #’s above are accurate.

    My question to you is, where would that combined starter ERA place the Yankee rotation in the AL standings based on last years numbers ?

    I hope my question is clear enough ?

    Thanks.

    At those numbers, with Nova throwing a 4.85 ERA and the 3 reserve starters combining for a 4.85 ERA, Burnett 4.50 and Mitre 5.50, the Yankees starters throw 977 innings for a 4.17 ERA which is middle of the MLB. and .15 better than last year.

  91. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:30 pm

    I think they were umpire related (ie squeezing him on pitches)…

    i’m sure if he pitched on a team that is considered better than the cubs and has shown that they will be competitve all year round that he’d he less inclined to blow up at every error his teammates make and missed call by the umpire…winning kind of takes the edge off of some people in that they don’t feel that they have to be perfect all of the time….
    ======================================
    Maybe, just maybe, this is all Cub-related?
    I mean it must be frustrating…

  92. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:33 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
    erin

    i never understood why , if given a choice, people stay with cable.
    is it the money difference?
    then again 90% of my tv watching is yankees

    ******************************
    I don’t know, I’ve never minded cable.

    But since I’m out of market, I don’t think I’d be able to get YES even with Direct TV.

  93. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:33 pm

    I wonder if the Cubs are looking to fleece us now that they know Andy is staying home.

    What prospects could they have their eye on?

  94. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:33 pm

    If the Yankees starters put up the ERA numbers that Jerkface projects above by my rough calculations they would wind up around 9th of 14 teams in the AL this year.

    Not good.

  95. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:35 pm

    Jerkface-

    Thanks.

    My back of the envelope calculations put them a bit lower.

    In either case not very good.

  96. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 4:36 pm

    “I don’t think that is a 100 win projection. 60% of the rotation is being projected to be below average.”

    I haven’t pulled out a calculator but IMO the rotation you project would be at least 5 games better than last year, which had two starters with 345 innings of an ERA around 5.30.

  97. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:36 pm

    But since I’m out of market, I don’t think I’d be able to get YES even with Direct TV.
    ======================
    That’s a shame and why I’d never move.
    How do sports bars get it?
    I think Directv has the baseball package where you get all the games or was that Cable?

  98. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:37 pm

    If the Yankees starters put up the ERA numbers that Jerkface projects above by my rough calculations they would wind up around 9th of 14 teams in the AL this year.

    A 4.17 ERA would have been 4th for all starters in the AL last year. Tied for 5th with the Twins and the Red Sox.

  99. UpState January 13th, 2011 at 4:39 pm

    What was Mitre’s ERA last year ????

  100. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:39 pm

    You were looking at combined starter and reliever ERA, MTU.

    Yankees had a nice 3 ERA bullpen and a 4.06 ERA overall.

    Wave, I really don’t see a guy sucking as hard and as long as Vazquez and Burnett did last year. I think the rotation is better next year than it was last year, even if its not much better it will be better enough. And they still made the playoffs last year.

  101. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:36 pm

    That?s a shame and why I?d never move.
    How do sports bars get it?
    I think Directv has the baseball package where you get all the games or was that Cable?

    *****************************
    Cable has Extra Innings which gives you all the games. If they showed all of the Yankee games on YES I’d never complain at all. ;)

  102. Bronx Jeers January 13th, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    Zambrano can also be their RH pinch hitter off the bench. :wink:

    He’s hit 21 HR’s in his career and as many as 6 in a season.

  103. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    What was Mitre’s ERA last year ????

    3.33

  104. Cashman needs to go January 13th, 2011 at 4:40 pm

    At those numbers, with Nova throwing a 4.85 ERA and the 3 reserve starters combining for a 4.85 ERA, Burnett 4.50 and Mitre 5.50, the Yankees starters throw 977 innings for a 4.17 ERA which is middle of the MLB. and .15 better than last year.

    ***************

    very impressive number crunching jerky (as girardi would call you)..

    how about if sabathia pitches to a 3.3 era (his average the 2 years he’s been with the yankees) and hughes pitches to a 4.1 era – which is .10 less than his 3 year average..

    which is the less optimistic, but more realistic way to look at it – and the rest of the era’s being the same as you projected …I’ll even give you burnett lowering his 2009 era by .80 (almost a full run)

  105. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:41 pm

    Defending Cash
    http://www.pinstripealley.com/.....=fangraphs

  106. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:42 pm

    Cable and satellite both have extra innings depending on which provider you are with, though I think direct tv charges more because they can offer games in HD.

    I paid 140 for extra innings every year and they didnt give me any HD channels so I eventually stopped getting it because MLB.TV is now HD quality on my PC and my internet is fast as hell.

  107. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:42 pm

    erin
    how many yankee games do you get?

  108. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 4:43 pm

    jerkface-

    I didn’t intend to argue with your projections (I think they are too optimistic but that’s neither here nor there) but I did want to find out what you meant by “supremely optimistic”. Your responses clarified that.

  109. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:43 pm

    hughes pitches to a 4.1 era – which is .10 less than his 3 year average..

    Hughes will end up surprising you if you go by this, he is a young pitcher who is improving. Not someone who is going to be pitching off a 3 year average of when he first came into the league and including a horrendous injury plagued season.

  110. UpState January 13th, 2011 at 4:44 pm

    Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
    What was Mitre’s ERA last year ????

    3.33
    ===============

    Not All-Star material — but certainly not horrific…..

    Actually, I think only Rivera had a better WHIP than Mitre did in 2010 !!!

  111. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:45 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:42 pm
    erin
    how many yankee games do you get?

    *************************
    I get them all. The only thing I don’t like about it is when they’re on the road and I have to watch the other team’s feed.

    The worst is when they’re in Chicago and I have to listen to Hawk :beyondawful:

  112. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:46 pm

    which is the less optimistic, but more realistic way to look at it – and the rest of the era’s being the same as you projected …I’ll even give you burnett lowering his 2009 era by .80 (almost a full run)

    It would be 4.25 which would be 8th out of all the teams in the AL last year. and .1 better than last year.

  113. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:46 pm

    Jerkface-

    Tied for 5th might mean they are actually 7th with just slightly lower numbers.

    Not good.

    That’s the reality though so we’ll have to deal with it.

    Maybe the offense will be #1.

  114. mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:46 pm

    erin
    you dont get post game though , right?

  115. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:47 pm

    (I think they are too optimistic but that’s neither here nor there) but I did want to find out what you meant by “supremely optimistic”.

    Doesn’t this kind of answer it? You said they are too optimistic, I defined them as being supremely optimistic :)

    I do think Burnett will be under 5 next year through. Just too much stuff went wrong last year for him including the absence of Eiland.

  116. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:47 pm

    Not good.

    That’s the reality though so we’ll have to deal with it.

    Maybe the offense will be #1.

    I think its quite good. The Yankees are going to have a good defense, and the #1 or #2 offense in the league. With a middle of the pack rotation and an above average bullpen. That equals a slightly above average pitching staff as a whole.

  117. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:48 pm

    The yankees would have to have the royals pitching to not make the playoffs, and they will be much better than the Royals.

  118. Erin January 13th, 2011 at 4:49 pm

    mick January 13th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
    erin
    you dont get post game though , right?

    ****************************
    right.

    They are kind enough to show Kim Jones interview the “player of the game” on the field before it cuts out though.

  119. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:50 pm

    All the cable providers in florida offer YES network even in HD. And for a while they had the game feeds on there. That was good while it lasted.

  120. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    Jerkface-

    Even if they do make the playoffs that rotation has very little chance.

    Do you agree with that ?

    I mean CC, AJ, and PH.

  121. ac1 January 13th, 2011 at 4:52 pm

    The only saving grace is we have seen the yankees win many games with less than stellar pitching. Sure we want 5 starters we can count on, and i am NO FAN of Mitre, but they have done this before.

    I wish we heard more about what is holding up any deal for a Francis/Ducscherer, and why the hairston brothers haven’t been brought up at all. Both would fill MANY of the needs we have.

  122. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 4:53 pm

    Even if they do make the playoffs that rotation has very little chance.

    CC, Phil, and AJ is fine, plus you have all season and the trade deadline to upgrade if necessary.

    Anything can happen in the playoffs. Jimmy Key could beat Greg Maddux. I am only concerned with getting into the playoffs.

  123. tyanksfan36 January 13th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

    They have the regular YES network at Steinbrenner field on the concession stand TVs, they don’t show the games unless its a cable channel which I think is weird because that’s the Yankees other HQ but whatever.

    I want YES but its too expensive for me.

  124. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

    Jerkface-

    The post was partially eaten for some reason.

    It should have started by saying that with a rotation of CC, PH, and AJ how do you think they would do even if they made the Playoffs ?

  125. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 4:54 pm

    “The yankees would have to have the royals pitching to not make the playoffs, and they will be much better than the Royals.”

    That’s too optimistic. Perhaps not supremely so, but too optimistic.

    Right now the Yanks are about a 90-91 win team, at least on the latest CAIRO projections. That’s good enough for the wild card, but an above average performance by some third team which could easily happen could put the wild card in jeopardy.

    So don’t go signing up for worse pitching!

  126. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 4:57 pm

    Jerkface-

    maybe so but I think that is a weak playoff rotation.

    You are right that it might be possible to make adjustments and just getting there would be an achievement.

    Still some time to see if Cashman comes up with any further improvements.

  127. Cashman needs to go January 13th, 2011 at 5:00 pm

    CC, Phil, and AJ is fine, plus you have all season and the trade deadline to upgrade if necessary

    ****************

    You see this is where i think yankee fans are delusional…what will change in july in terms of teams “making it hurt” to trade with the yankees? And what will change in dopey cashman’s philosophy in not giving up the good prospects…the dodgers aren’t trading clayton kershaw for ivan nova and david adams….and cashman won’t deal montero and 2 of the killer b’s (really dumb name by the way) for him…..so really what you see is what you have because its looks more and more like 2011 will be yet another bridge year…

  128. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 5:03 pm

    That’s too optimistic. Perhaps not supremely so, but too optimistic.

    Right now the Yanks are about a 90-91 win team, at least on the latest CAIRO projections. That’s good enough for the wild card, but an above average performance by some third team which could easily happen could put the wild card in jeopardy.

    Too optimistic to be better than the royals?? And CAIRO is cool, but it predicts the Yankees to be worse on offense and pitching than 2010, and I just don’t see that.

  129. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 5:05 pm

    “Too optimistic to be better than the royals?? And CAIRO is cool, but it predicts the Yankees to be worse on offense and pitching than 2010, and I just don’t see that.”

    No, too optimistic to say the Yank pitching just needs to be better than the Royals.

    CAIRO projected the Yanks to be a 97 win team last year, if I recall correctly. Of course it could easily be wrong, but at least it is apples to apples.

  130. Jerkface January 13th, 2011 at 5:07 pm

    You see this is where i think yankee fans are delusional…what will change in july in terms of teams “making it hurt” to trade with the yankees? And what will change in dopey cashman’s philosophy in not giving up the good prospects…the dodgers aren’t trading clayton kershaw for ivan nova and david adams

    Moving closer to the deadline, the Yankees will have another half season to analyze their minor leaguers and will actually know what the weaknesses of the team are. Pitching, at least starting, does not appear to be a strength at the moment. I don’t think its as big a weakness as everyone else, but what if it turns out to not be as bad as projected? I’m fine going into the season with an attitude of ‘Lets see what we have and what needs to be corrected’. And getting closer to the deadline means more teams who are not in it that might give up a guy, or teams not wanting to part with a guy prior now willing to do it, or maybe some of the prospects that the yankees have seen as tradable guys improve their stock. Or maybe minor leaguers come up and help.

    Like who are we trading for anyways? I don’t know why you said Clayton Kershaw, who is even suggesting that or thinking it?

    For better or worse, Burnett is in the rotation because he is owed a lot of money for 3 more seasons.

    You spend the first few months of the season looking to see what the problems are, and then the 2 months leading up to the trade deadline addressing it.

  131. ac1 January 13th, 2011 at 5:11 pm

    Too optimistic to be better than the royals?? And CAIRO is cool, but it predicts the Yankees to be worse on offense and pitching than 2010, and I just don’t see that.

    __

    Also they were off a few games last year and had us in 3rd place.

  132. randy l. January 13th, 2011 at 5:13 pm

    the yankees were middle of the pack in ERA last year at seventh place in the league

    http://www.baseball-reference......hing.shtml

    they jump up to fourth if you go by era+

    without pettitte they are worse than last year right now, so they could go to middle of the pack in era+ and to below average in era.

    this is not how you draw it up going into spring training.

  133. Wave Your Hat January 13th, 2011 at 5:14 pm

    “Also they were off a few games last year and had us in 3rd place.”

    No that’s incorrect, the final CAIRO projections had the Yanks winning the AL East with 97.7 wins:

    http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/.....o_edition1

    So SG’s heart was in the right place.

  134. MTU January 13th, 2011 at 5:18 pm

    Randy-

    I agree with you but that’s what it looks like it going to be.

    ;)

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