Pinch hitting: Doug Waage
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Pinch hitters on Jan 28, 2011 
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Our next Pinch Hitter is something of a flashback. Doug Waage wrote a guest post last year, and he’s back to reexamine the same subject: The impact of Brett Gardner.
Doug is a 35-year-old equity analyst working in Manhattan and living in Jersey City. He’s a lifelong Yankees fan who, exactly one year ago, predicted that Gardner would thrive if given a chance to play everyday.
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It’s sometimes easy to forget, but a year ago the Yankees were the reigning 2009 World Series Champions, and the team was faced with the decision of who was going to play left field in 2010.
Immediately after the season, the team had three candidates from the 2009 season: Johnny Damon, Brett Gardner, and Melky Cabrera, as well two home run-hitting free agents in Jason Bay and Matt Holliday to consider. Despite having the means to sign Bay or Holliday, or to bring back Damon on a reasonable contract ($20M for 2 years), the Yankees decided to pass on the all three free agents, trade away Cabrera, and give the job to Gardner.
The Yankees were widely criticized for not going with one of the more experienced (and more expensive) free agents and giving the job to the light hitting Gardner. A year ago I analyzed the Yankee’s decision and concluded that in addition to being the cheapest solution (Gardner only made $452,500 in 2010), Gardner would not only produce more wins for the Yankees than all of the other LF options besides Holliday, but his production would be similar to that of Teixeria’s 2009 output of 5.1 WAR (wins above replacement) production when Teixeria was 2nd in the MVP voting.
While some people agreed with my analysis, most of the fan base thought (a) that I was nuts, (b) that Gardner couldn’t produce anywhere near the level of Teixeria’s 5.1 WAR, and (c) that the Yanks should sign Damon, Bay, or Holliday to play let. With the 2010 season behind us, let’s take a look back at how the Yankees decision to go with Gardner vs. all the costlier options turned out:
| Name | Team | PA | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Holliday | Cardinals | 675 | 0.312 | 95 | 28 | 103 | 9 | 0.390 | 0.396 | 153 |
| Gardner | Yankees | 569 | 0.277 | 95 | 5 | 47 | 44 | 0.383 | 0.358 | 123 |
| Damon | Tigers | 613 | 0.271 | 81 | 8 | 51 | 11 | 0.355 | 0.34 | 112 |
| Bay | Mets | 401 | 0.259 | 48 | 6 | 47 | 10 | 0.347 | 0.336 | 113 |
| Cabrera | Braves | 509 | 0.255 | 50 | 4 | 42 | 7 | 0.317 | 0.294 | 83 |
From the raw offensive data, Gardner is clearly 2nd only to Holliday in 2010 offensive contribution. Both his wOBA and wRC+ are superior to that of Damon, Bay, and Cabrera, and he had at least 33 more stolen bases than any of them. Objectively, Gardner had a good year with the bat while Damon and Bay had OK years (but well below their historical standards and what was expected of them given their $8M and $15M respective salaries), and Melky was just horrendous.
Now let’s look at each players total 2010 contribution (including defense):
| 2010 | “Free” | ||||||
| Name | Batting | UZR | RAR | WAR | Value | Salary | Value |
| Matt Holliday | 42.7 | 8.2 | 66.4 | 6.9 | $27.6 | $16.3 | $11.3 |
| Brett Gardner | 15.4 | 21.9 | 51.9 | 5.4 | $21.5 | $0.5 | $21.0 |
| Johnny Damon | 8.9 | 0.6 | 18.2 | 1.9 | $7.5 | $8.0 | -$0.5 |
| Jason Bay | 6.2 | -1.9 | 13.5 | 1.4 | $5.6 | $15.0 | -$9.4 |
| Melky Cabrera | -10.1 | -16 | -12 | -1.2 | -$4.9 | $3.1 | -$8.0 |
Holliday was awesome as expected, Damon earned his pay for the year, Bay was a huge disappointment (just ask any Mets fan), and the Braves should have benched Cabrera, who should have paid the Braves to compensate them for how badly he played. And then there was Gardner, who produced lots of value and cost next to nothing. The Yanks got $21.5M of value out of Gardner for an investment of less than $0.5M. If only all of us were able to earn such returns on our investments!
From a WAR standpoint, Gardner ended up producing 5.4 WAR, which was even higher than my 4.6 WAR projection from last January, which almost everyone said was crazy high. How did he do it? He had a good offensive year led by his 0.383 OBP (8th highest in the AL) and 47 SBs (3rd in AL), and his 21.9 UZR which was the best in baseball! Yes, you read that right, Brett Gardner was the best defensive player in all of baseball in 2010… at any position!
So just how valuable was Gardner in 2010? Gardner’s 5.4 WAR was better than every other member of the 2010 Yankees not named Robinson Cano. More valuable than CC (5.1), AROD (4.1), Tex (3.5), and Jeter + Posada combined (2.5+2.4 = 4.9 WAR)…and all for less money than what AROD earned playing about 20 innings of ball. So given Gardner’s huge contribution to the Yankees 2010 campaign, how much attention did Gardner’s performance get in print, on TV, on the radio, and online vs. his less productive teammates? Virtually none. Every other article was about Cano’s great season (which was well deserved), and seemingly about Jeter’s free agency. Now I realize that Gardner isn’t a household name even for many Yankee fans, but perhaps the fans and media should show Gardner a level of “love” more in-line with his on-field contributions. But I digress…
So what should we expect from Gardner in 2011? As great as Gardner was in 2010, his season could have been even better if not for the injury he sustained on June 27th. In that game, Gardner was hit by a pitch in his right wrist, and while he played out the rest of the season, it negatively affected his hitting in the second half. Prior to the HBP, Gardner was batting .321, with a .403 OBP, and a .418 SLG. After the HBP (which required surgery in the offseason), Gardner batted .233, with a .361 OBP, and a .342 SLG. So while Gardner still drew his walks, his ability to hit the ball fell off a cliff.
Now I don’t know if Gardner will be able to return to his level of production from the first 3 months of 2010, but if he can hit at that level for an entire season and his defense ability remains constant, Gardner could produce a 6.8 WAR in 2011. How good exactly is 6.8 WAR? Here are the players with a WAR higher than 6.8 in 2010: Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, Cliff Lee, Jose Bautista, Evan Longoria, Matt Holliday, and Carl Crawford.
So if Gardner can play all of 2011 like he did in the first three months of 2011 (a very large “IF” I realize) and the rest of the players’ production remained constant, Gardner would be the 11th best player in all of baseball. A high bar? You bet, but he hit that well in Triple-A in 2008 (.389 wOBA) and for the first three months of 2010 (.370 wOBA), so we’ll just have to wait and see if Gardner is able to maintain this level of production going forward. Barring an injury, my money’s on Gardner.
Associated Press photo
Great job Doug!
Overall a very nice post.
I agree GGBG should get a lot more Love.
My biggest concerns with him is stayin’ healthy.
If he does, I say he’s gonna have another solid year.
And if he improves his bunting he can be scary good.
Also expect his steals totals to continue to rise.
Yes Gardner was a very productive player, but over reliance on goofy stats is just a big time turn off for all but the most obsessed stat geeks.
RAR, WAR, UZR, wOBA, wRC+ to me my only reaction is WTF?
When stat-freak stats conclude Brett Gardner could be one of the top 10-12 players in baseball it’s time to blow up the computer and break out the side ruler.
Also, posted this late on the last thread:
Sherman’s article is spot on and one of the best I’ve read in a long time.
I wrote after the Soriano signing that EVERY General Manager deals with “meddlesome” ownership and this reinforces my position. No G.M. has complete authority nor should he. Anyone who owns a team is going to wield veto power… some wield or more often (and mor publicly) than others but they ALL do it.
Anyone see Freddy Garcia telling a Venezuelan newspaper that he wants to pitch for the Yankees? I’m okay with that.
Well, well, it looks like those words that Cashman spoke about Jeter looking at offers from other teams, actually, originated from Hal, himself. Also, Hal’s right about one thing. The old man was known to thrown darts at his own players, even ones that he beloved like Mattingly and Jeter. Perhaps, the apple doesn’t fall too far from the tree after all.
‘
”
Steinbrenner exonerated Cashman in all areas, except to say ownership was uncomfortable with how “personal” the Jeter negotiations became. However, Steinbrenner said he wrote the feisty rebuke that Cashman read after Jeter’s representative called negotiations “baffling.”
Steinbrenner said: “I will return fire when fired upon. I do have some of the old man [George Steinbrenner] in me.”
Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/sports…..z1CKG1CozG
Another NY Post article with some historical facts regarding Cashman’s role with the New York Yankees Brass.
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports…..;FEEDNAME=
Good post Doug.
I was pleasantly surprised by how well GGBG played last year. I really thought he was a place holder for Crawford…which he may have been, at least initially.
If all is well w/ his wrist, I wish he was batting lead off this year instead of 9th.
Good post, Doug. Reckon this will silence the Gardy critics?
Hi Chuck!!
All I can say about this article, as someone who has played and watched baseball for over 50 years, is ‘You have to be kidding’.
Gardner is a pretty good player who exceeded expectations in 2010 but trying to make a case to compare him with the elite players in the game is bordering on lunacy. He just isn’t, period.
Good job Doug. I even followed the numbers!
If one assumes that even without injury he may have cooled down a little (because players often do in the heat of summer), what do you think his numbers could have been?
Anyway, Gardner’s done a great job for the Yankees, and I look forward to watching him play in 2011. I hope he’s healed and he’s ready to go.
And I’m sorry but I’m just not a fan of the headfirst slide.
Too much injury risk.
Call me old-fashioned.
good post doug, but i agree about the overreliance on ‘designer stats’. i try to read these objectivly but i always cringe when they try to turn these stats into a $ value. someone said that according to WAR, andruw jones should be paid $4.5m – $6M. actually the market decides value, not some very questionable arrangement of stats that only statisticians can even explain.
gardner was great last year and a bargain. once you start trying to make him out to be the best LF in the league or determine that his value is around $20M based on these stats you have gone way too far, imo.
I suspected that Cash would not take on the franchise’s most iconic player (perceptually anyway) without ownership’s blessings. It turns out that he had more than their blessings.
Any reasonable person in Hal’s shoes would have done the same thing.
$21.5 M? HAHAHAHAHAHA Again, exactly why these stats are pointless.
Bottom line on Gardner……
If he can stay healthy, he will be an impact player for this team and you won’t need any metric system to see it.
Re: the “news” of the morning………
There is a lot of stuff at play here so, this may take up a few posts…..
First, the Daily News doesn’t like Brian Cashman and aren’t real fans of this Yankee management group.
It’s always been a “Mets” paper per se.
There is a belief among some at the DN that Cashman cut off access to George, in particular to Bill Madden, and that has created hard feelings.
Also, I don’t believe the Steinbrenner Family is particularly enamored with Madden over the bookmon George.
Although, I have to admit, while Madden is not a favorite or friend of mine, that book was probably the most balanced account of George ever written.
Why is this stuff important?
Because, it in instant reaction world we live in, how stories are slanted when they are written can create a lot of unnecessary “noise”.
George never minded unnecessary noise. He felt ANY noise was good noise.
Hal isn’t like that.
Hal takes great pride, as he should, for the business model he has out together and runs.
For a guy who came into this with limited sports experience, he has done a GREAT job of balancing on field success with the off field business obligations.
Consequently, when things are written or said that aren’t true, he’s not happy.
But……..
Unlike his dad, he’s not an “out front” guy. That’s not a comfortable setting for him.
Joel Sherman, while rough around the edges at times, is an excellent reporter with excellent Yankee sources.
It was recommended to Hal to talk to Sherman to set the record straight because, unlike the DN, Sherman would give him a fair hearing.
Hence, this AM’s story.
SJ-
Your post was good but it was just too short.
The newspaper war between The Post and the DN is also at play here.
George was a master at playing the two off one another.
He would “give” some nuggets to each paper. Kind of like the dad rationing the Halloween candy to the kids.
It’s different now. I’ve seen some stuff written by Lupica and Madden the last few years re: some issues with the Yankees that I knew were categorically untrue. They were just written to get a rise out of management and create an attempt for them to get the rebuttal.
Notice that Hal answered Madden’s column in the POST. That was done for a reason.
Today, everybody will be talking about the Post and not the DN.
For the record, this has nothing to do with Mark Feinsand.
Mark is a fair guy who does a very good job on the beat.
This stuff is above Mark on the reporter/columnist food chain.
i never got upset with cashman for what he said about jeter during the negotiation, so i didnt need any clarification from the nypost. whether hal or cashman came up with the idea, it was just the right thing to do. i love derek, but he’s not a god and his people were pushing the team to pay him way more than what had been offered, which was already 2x his actual baseball value.
i generally dont go crazy about what is said in the papers, firstly because a significant amount of time, its not even accurate, and secondly because words, in the long run, really dont mean that much. i try to judge by what is actual and real, how the team finishes the season and how well the organization is working as a whole.
i dont make cash out to be awesome, i think he’s doing a good job, but i also say once again, we will see how this season goes, then judge how his whole contract period went before making a decision on him beyond this year. but lets remember, he’s already got a WS Championship during this contract, so he deserves maximum freedom to put this team together the way he thinks it needs to be.
things are very good in yankees land if you step back from this forum and look at things objectivly.
Hi, Erin!
i think you have to judge cash more than just this contract, perhaps 1-2 years after. He had a couple goals. We won in 2009, and we are building up the minors. Let’s see how that works. We want to win every year but it is unrealistic.
The Sherman article was very good and as I said the other day he is growing on me (especially after hearing him on the radio for awhile). I don’t always agree with everything he says but he does seem to be one of the more objective guys out there to me and that’s extremely important these days.
As for Gardner. I was a doubter and he surprised me in 2010. I knew he could play defense and run but didn’t think he would be able to hit enough to get on base that much (he improved his swing or he may not have).
The question last season was Holliday/Damon or Gardner. In hindsight the real question may be Holliday or the Granderson trade. I think Grandy is going to really show us what he can do in year 2 as a yankee but had they not made the deal they could have signed Holliday, moved Gardner to CF, kept Kennedy, and kept or shopped Jackson later.
Holliday, Gardner, Swisher could in theory have been the outfield with Kennedy in the mix for a rotation spot right now. This of course is hindsight thinking and I still like the Granderson trade and the current outfield……just sayin.
Blake-
GGBG exceeded my expectations too.
Glad to have underestimated him.
You KNOW where I stood on MH.
Wait until Melky gets his bill from the Braves.
That’s a lot of peanuts for the Melkman.
As far as Cash’s job……..
He’s in a no win situation.
He can’t be a sentimental guy. He has to be the heavy when it comes to putting together the team.
If not, you end up like the Celtics did after Bird, McHale, and Parrish. Irrelevant for 20 years.
Cash has to be the guy to tell Bernie it’s over……
Tell Jeter he’s not getting 100 million dollars……….
Not fight one more battle to bring Joe Torre back because he KNOWS a change is needed.
No GM is popular when you have to tell icons “no”.
The Steinbrenner Family love Brian Cashman.
Not only because he does a very good job with the toughest GM job in the game but because he’s honest.
They know he will tell them the truth and has their best interests at heart. Even when it may clash with his own beliefs or desires.
That’s why he isn’t going anywhere.
He’s as valuable to the organization as Randy Levine and Lonn Trost for what he brings to the table.
He’s never going to be “popular” with some fans because the job doesn’t breed popularity when fans don’t get what they want.
However, he’s not only popular with ownership, he’s valued.
That’s what Hal was trying to get across this AM.
MTU,
yea I wanted him too. I just thought it made all the sense in the world for what they needed at the time…..but admittedly I didn’t totally believe in Gardner, I didn’t like his swing in 2009….he worked on it and better suited it to his skill set and we then got 2010.
Doug, good job. I like Gardner. I would rather see him in the lead-off spot.
SJ,
I agree with you, also add Harper and Raissman to that DN bunch.
Think what a grinder Gardner would be thought of if he played for Boston ……he would be labeled “King Grinder ” and ESPN would probabaly show every night how many pitches he took.
i wasnt a believer in gardner offensively and i have to say kudo’s to bg for a suprisingly good year at the plate. i think we’d all like to see more bunts and more foot-first slides, but hey, nobody’s perfect.
but i was very happy to see gardner and granderson replace melky and damon in the OF because i’ve always thought defense was way undervalued and that switch was +/+ for the yankees overall.
but even in a free market without restrictions, there is no way gardner is worth $21M so that stat twisting thing that produces that dollar figure needs some serious tweeking…
Go Brett Gardner!
Blake-
K. Long has helped a lot of players.
GGBG was one of them.
He adds a dimension to the Yankees that is sometimes sorely missing.
The speed and small ball game.
And of course his defense in LF is outsatnding.
I’ll be real happy if he can hit .280 with 50 stolen bags, and another
high OBP season.
Good article, I too would love to see Gardner batting leadoff.
I may not agree that Gardner should be compared to the elite players of the game like others on here. My question to them is what would they be saying if he didnt get hurt? What if he ended the season hitting .320 with an over .400 obp and a bunch more stolen bases while playing great defense? Those arent just numbers a normal player puts up…
MTU,
If he can stay healthy I think he steals 50 in 2011.
Cashman’s contract is up at the end of the season. If he wants to leave to pursue other jobs, he can do that. He doesn’t need to “talk his way out of town” as Harper keeps suggesting both in print and on Daily News Live on SNY.
Sherman is probably the best reporter due to the fact that his sources are always spot-on, he’s incredibly tied into the organization because of that. If there is any news around the Yankees that doesn’t involve a Boras client, Sherman is most likely going to have the scoop first.
I read him because he has his finger on the pulse for almost every single Yankee move. He is extremely good at his job.
Some people aren’t that bright, so they stir the pot in order to get noticed. Harper is a prime example.
I’m all for Gardner hitting .300 + and upping his stolen base numbers.
If he does that for three straight years he might THEN be worth what this article claims he’s worth now.
” My question to them is what would they be saying if he didnt get hurt? What if he ended the season hitting .320 with an over .400 obp and a bunch more stolen bases while playing great defense? ”
—-
I dont know about everyone else but, i’d be like YEAH BABY!!!!
There are track record and injury questions with Gardner. The league is going to adjust to him….they are just now getting enough info for good scouting reports. I would expect a lot more strikes being thrown to him (pitchers making conscious efforts to nkt walk him) and for pitchers to consistently pound him inside in 2011….how he adjusts back will tell the tale. He has responded to every challenge in his.career thus far.
Erica-if you’re around:
cgrand14 with Air New Zealand’s mascot, Rico. Now I need to get on Sesame Street! http://fb.me/JqWW5eeo
How cool would it be if he went on Sesame Street????!!
Erin -
I’m surprised he HASN’T been on Sesame Street yet. I’ll bet he is next season!
Doreen-I hope he does go on-he would be a perfect choice to go on Sesame Street.
For anyone interested, here is Doug’s post from last yr:
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/201.....oug-waage/
And I wouldn’t have any objections if he were to take a certain second baseman with him.
Erin -
That would be awesome!
Wasn’t Swisher on Sesame Street?
Honestly, I don’t care what the stats say or the deniers of the stats say.
The fact is this: Brett Gardner is one of the best all-around outfielders in the game. And he’s on our team. And he came from our system.
And, perhaps most importantly, he came out of the College of Charleston, the school which I currently attend. Hometown hero? Not really. Nobody knows who he is down here. But to me, at least, he’s a little bright spot in CofC athletics. (We once had a pretty good NBA player, but that’s about it, as we don’t have a football team).
Doreen-not that I know of. He’d be a good fit too.
It’s ironic that everyone in the industry wants to cry and complain that the newspaper industry is going down the toilet.
When it’s all said and done, look no further than the Daily News for reasoning as to why newspapers became so obsolete.
I appreciate the effort made by the writer of the guest post, but the reliance on metrics like WAR, etc., to compare Gardner with great players is absurd IMO. More valuable than CC, A-Rod and Tex? Give me a break! He’s cheaper, and he had a relatively good year, that’s his value.
Good post Doug.
Thanks SJ
The Gardner critics will be silenced if Gardner hits like the first half of the year and not the second. We can hope his decline was from the wrist injury. He can be valuable at .280. Not so much at .240.
As with everything, time will tell.
“More valuable than CC, A-Rod and Tex? Give me a break! He’s cheaper, and he had a relatively good year, that’s his value.”
It depends on the definition of value. Doug was pretty clear on his. The anti-stat folks are never exactly clear on theirs.
Charlestonchew,
I have a good friend whose daughter goes to C of C. She loves it. Beautiful place. The only downside is you are a bit too close to GB.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.co.....team-.html
Brett Gardner has been proving critics wrong his whole career. His work ethic, hustle, and never give up attitude in the outfield make him my favorite Yankee. Much like John Wall’s reckless play will probably land him on the injury list, I wish Gardner would tone it down a bit with the head first sliding. I know a HBP is what caused his wrist injury, but I’m sure those wrist impacts with the bases made it a little tender. With all the high priced contracts on the Yankees, a guy that provides this much value is a real key to maintaining our organizational strength.
so doug, it sounds like you don’t think the yankees should trade brett gardner even up for for joe mauer.
why should the yankees do that? after all , fangraphs says gardner is more valuable.
your post though very well written only proves how useless many of fangraphs stats are .
my favorite fangraphs disconnection with reality is that they don’t consider the sinker a separate pitch and don’t measure it for sinkerball pitchers like wang.
amateur hour.
fangraphs is good for the game though. it’s a hook that brings statheads into the game to spend money so that joe mauer can make much more than brett gardner ever will.
SJ44 January 28th, 2011 at 9:47 am
“Not fight one more battle to bring Joe Torre back because he KNOWS a change is needed”.
**************
And lie to Joe Torre, telling him he wanted him back only to remain silent in the meeting with the Steinbrenners.
“my favorite fangraphs disconnection with reality is that they don’t consider the sinker a separate pitch and don’t measure it for sinkerball pitchers like wang.”
randy you’re cool but if that’s your worst criticism of fangraphs then fangraphs is doing a pretty good job.
oh, by the way, i really like gardner being a yankee. he’s a unique talent in that he’s not a natural baseball player, but with his athleticism and ability to learn seems to be able to get to the next level when he hits a wall.
he’s a good player, and the yankees are better for having him.
The Yankees offered Torre a contract. It was fair, if imperfect. You can debate whether it was purposely an offer Torre was going to turn down, but in my estimation that would be poor business. You don’t take a chance that someone you really don’t want takes the contract offer. Ever.
So, I think the Yankees would have been okay with Torre accepting the contract offer, but Cashman wasn’t going to argue for a better contract for Torre.
You have no idea if the contract offer was BECAUSE Cashman had previously argued for Torre one last time.
I love Gardner….southern kid that has exceeded expectations his whole career. However, I do think we need to see him do it for more than 1 season…..the same thought process that declares him great also warns of small sample sizes. I think he’s legit and that he can sustain last year but let’s see.
“And lie to Joe Torre, telling him he wanted him back only to remain silent in the meeting with the Steinbrenners.”
It didn’t matter if Cashman spoke during that last meeting because the die was cast and Cashman knew it. He was the only one that wanted Torre back, but everybody else with more stripes than him felt differently. Self survival is sometimes in order.
I read the article to say that Gardner brings good value to the Yankees, especially considering his cost.
I also read to article to say that the Yankees did better with Gardner as their left fielder than they may have done with Damon, certainly better than they might have done with Cabrera, who were the alternatives prior to the 2009 season, and Holliday likely would have been the only one of the bunch to offer more to the Yankees.
The bottom line is Gardner has turned into a very good player who we all hope will continue to grow. He gave the Yankees much more than expected last season.
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 10:28 am
“More valuable than CC, A-Rod and Tex? Give me a break! He’s cheaper, and he had a relatively good year, that’s his value.”
It depends on the definition of value. Doug was pretty clear on his. The anti-stat folks are never exactly clear on theirs.
———————
Value: Which do the Yankees need more to win.
Anyone who believes the Yankee season will be determined more by Brett Gardner than by Alex or Tex or Sabathia has his or her head so far up their own rear that the lump in their throat is their nose.
That was my take as well Doreen. I didn’t see anywhere that Doug would be opposed to trading GGBG straight up for Mauer or any other super star.
The overwhelming majority of Yankee fans get it, they just don’t always have a voice. But sometimes they do. By far the loudest ovations on Boss day at the Stadium after his passing were reserved for Torre and Mattingly.
“However, I do think we need to see him do it for more than 1 season…..the same thought process that declares him great also warns of small sample sizes. I think he’s legit and that he can sustain last year but let’s see.”
I don’t think Doug called Gardner great – he said Gardner had a great 2010 season, which he did, and hoped Gardner would build on his first 3 months of 2010, which I’m sure we all hope as well.
The one reservation I have with Doug’s post the importance he is attaching to defensive WAR, which has the same weight in WAR as does offensive WAR. Given the controversies surrounding defensive WAR I’m not ready to give it the same weight as offensive WAR, and if you don’t weigh it the same then Gardner’s “value” drops.
“Anyone who believes the Yankee season will be determined more by Brett Gardner than by Alex or Tex or Sabathia has his or her head so far up their own rear that the lump in their throat is their nose.”
Why are so many of your comments filled with schoolyard insults?
LOL @ West Coast.
He didn’t lie to Joe Torre.
Once Torre turned down the deal it was over.
He had one ally left at that point and it was Cashman.
Cash wasn’t going to convince the family, Levine or Trost to save him this time.
For a guy that crows on here about understanding the “corporate culture”, it sure doesn’t seem you do if you think Torre was lied to.
It was over and everybody in the room, INCLUDING Torre knew it.
Guess what? It ended up being the right decision for the Yankees.
If Joe had it to do all over again, and he has acknowledged this, he would have handled things differently.
SJ -
I agreed with nearly everything you wrote vis-a-vis Madden the Daily News and the Yankees.
The only point (and a minor one at that) is that the Yankee family was reportedly quite cooperative in the writing of the book. They gave their blessing to many of the people quoted in the book to talk to Madden – something that prior to this book they had been loathe to do.
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 10:45 am
“Anyone who believes the Yankee season will be determined more by Brett Gardner than by Alex or Tex or Sabathia has his or her head so far up their own rear that the lump in their throat is their nose.”
Why are so many of your comments filled with schoolyard insults?
——————-
Wasn’t intending to insult you – simply providing an illustrative metaphor. Unless of course you are one who believes that Brett Gardner will have a greater impact on the Yankee fortunes this season then those other three players – in which case you can feel free to be insulted.
I believe Girardi will become more ‘managery’ as the years go on, as the older guys he used to be teammates with are gone, and the younger players come in. I feel like it has to be hard for him to make tough decisions against Jeter and Posada in particular. I do want to see the fire he has his one year in Florida though.
“Value” is not quantifiable, stat fan or not. That said, Brett is very, very valuable.
West Coast Yankee Fan January 28th, 2011 at 10:31 am
SJ44 January 28th, 2011 at 9:47 am
“Not fight one more battle to bring Joe Torre back because he KNOWS a change is needed”.
**************
And lie to Joe Torre, telling him he wanted him back only to remain silent in the meeting with the Steinbrenners.
———————-
For what it’s worth – Torre wasn’t fired. He did have the option of returning.
I think if he had gone down there and been told to pack his bags then you can accuse Brian of lying to Torre.
Where is your proof the “overwhelming number of Yankee fans get it”?
The overwhelming number of Yankee fans I talked to felt a change was necessary. Some felt that way as far back as 2004.
It doesn’t minimize the love and respect they have for Joe Torre and the job he did while manager. Hence the ovations he will always receive.
However, that’s not an indication they want him back to manage the team.
Just as the huge ovations Bernie gets (bigger than Torre’s I might add) is an indication fans want him to be the Opening Day CF.
On another topic – any word yet on what the Yankees are planning to do to open up a spot for Jones?
Wave,
Yea I wasn’t really talking about Dougs post post se….my point was that merely that 1 good season is just that…..1 good season. I want to see how he adjusts to the adjustments the league is going to make……Im rooting for him.
i wasn’t on the gardner side of gardner vs. melky, but now that he is the choice, i hope he realizes his full potential. To do that, he needs to be more confident on the bases, and be willing to be thrown out from time to time. He should leadoff and anytime he is on first, especially since Jeter would probably be 2nd, he should be thinking run as soon as possible (Jeter needs to stop swinging at the first pitch all the time).
A 90% success rate is great, but 80 is good too if you increase the attempts.
That and i think bunting for hits needs to be a bigger part of his game. He could raise his average significantly if he can get his bunts down.
Sometimes common sense is all one needs to dismiss an idiotic notion or idiotic use of statistics.
The notion that Brett Garner is one of the top outfielders in baseball is idiotic, as is the use of strange stats to back it up.
It does not make me (or others) Gardner haters or critics to point that out. He’s a good ball player with a chance to become even better as his game matures. He is an excellent defensive player with great speed.
He’s also a guy who has never hit .280 let alone the .320 that was fantasized about above. His one full season included more strikeouts (101) than runs (97) and 132 hits.
Cooperstown may have to wait another year or two.
Chip,
They were cooperative. However, they feel the book wasn’t written as it was pitched to them for the cooperation.
In other words, they don’t see the book as a positive view of George.
Then again, this family we are talking about. They are fiercely protective of George’s legacy and some of the rougher parts of the book had to be tough for them to read.
West Coast Yankee Fan January 28th, 2011 at 10:44 am
The overwhelming majority of Yankee fans get it, they just don’t always have a voice. But sometimes they do. By far the loudest ovations on Boss day at the Stadium after his passing were reserved for Torre and Mattingly.
——————-
The problem with that theory is though that Cashman can’t afford to think like a fan.
All GMs have to make unpopular decisions from time to time – for Brian it was saying goodbye to Bernie Williams (though Bernie technically walked away). He’ll do it again when Jorge says that he still wants to play after this year and Brian tells him he doesn’t have a spot for him.
Theo parted ways with guys who were icons in Boston after delivering the 04 WS in Damon, Millar, Mueller, Pedro, Lowe, Nixon, and Dave Roberts
It has to happen though – for the good of the franchise.
“The overwhelming number of Yankee fans I talked to felt a change was necessary. Some felt that way as far back as 2004″
Must depend on the circles one runs in. About 50/50 among Yankees fans I know. General idea was that neither Torre nor the front office was doing an especially good job with the MLB product thru the middle of the decade.
“Wasn’t intending to insult you – simply providing an illustrative metaphor.”
Of course you were. Don’t be a wuss.
it felt like Torre has become complacent. I know that isn’t true, but the feeling was something had to change to try to get past the wall the team kept hitting in the playoffs.
Torre was given a lot more leeway, IMHO, than many managers would have gotten after 2004, 2005 and 2006. I was a staunch Joe Torre supporter. I felt he was the right man for the job, was good at dealing with George (which, frankly, was no longer part of the job description when his contract was up) and from what I knew, seemed to have a good handle on how to manage a clubhouse full of superstars (not much controversy brewed under Joe).
I felt this way right up until the “midge” game, which I believe probably true for many, including, possibly, Yankees ownership.
I was upset by Torre’s book.
Torre deserves all the cheering that comes his way for the things he accomplished while he was here. But don’t think that that cheering means that many fans weren’t ready for a change.
And don’t talk about the media. They had Torre’s neck in a noose from 2004 on, which tightened quite a bit after the 2006 playoffs.
SJ44 January 28th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Chip,
They were cooperative. However, they feel the book wasn’t written as it was pitched to them for the cooperation.
In other words, they don’t see the book as a positive view of George.
Then again, this family we are talking about. They are fiercely protective of George’s legacy and some of the rougher parts of the book had to be tough for them to read.
————————
Probably right on most of that.
It boils down to this – just like any of us write on here with our own points of view or from our own backgrounds – so too do members of the media. If we take what anyone is saying as gospel then we’re asking to be led down the wrong path.
I had no problem with Madden opining that Brian wants out of New York. He’s just formulating an opinion based on his observations and sharing that opinion. I have a big problem when people want to give us definitive statements with no evidence to back them up.
BTW Doug, nice work on this post. I’m with some others who’d like to see it a 2nd time before totally buying in, but he had a nice year last year. 1st half was pretty ridiculous and the 2nd half was rough, but I was impressed by his ability to maintain a healthy OBP (.365) despite his obvious struggles.
Great link, VTGoad.
Gardner’s back-story just proves that he’s had nothing handed to him. He plays balls-to-the-wall because there’s always someone else w/better perceived physical tools just waiting to take his place.
SJ44 -
Thanks for taking the time to offer your insights on the Ownership/GM saga.
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 10:57 am
“Wasn’t intending to insult you – simply providing an illustrative metaphor.”
Of course you were. Don’t be a wuss.
—————-
I know this will come as a blow to your ego but since I don’t know you and will never meet you I don’t care enough personally about you (or for that matter anyone on this or any other blog) to want to insult you. Sorry. I do stand behind my opinion that it is idiocy to think Brett Gardner is more important to the Yankees than Sabathia, Tex or Alex.
“it felt like Torre has become complacent. I know that isn’t true”
Wouldn’t totally discount that, ac. Don’t think it stopped it Torre though.
Chip
you don’t care about us???
joe torre had a great first 8 seasons, then things became strained, which is what happens. the separation wasnt pretty and the book made it look even uglier, but in the end, im not mad at torre, but i also dont think anybody owes him an apology.
i still see torre as a great manager, but he stayed too long.
i am so over how it ended.
good luck to joe, i hope he comes to old timer’s game and gets a huge ovation.
SJ, Torre in the meeting asked management, “Do you want me to manage?”
Randy Levine and Hal Steinbrenner answered and told him yes, they wanted him to return and that it was a unanimous decision.” But for one year with a 33% pay cut. As Torre said later, if they really wanted me back we would have discussed and worked out the second year.
Here’s the problem with Cashman. Torre gave him a proposal on the way to the meeting on how to structure a second year financially, with buyouts, etc.
“Cash, I have an idea. What about a two-year contract? It doesn’t even really matter what the money is. Two years, and if I get fired in the first year, the second year is guaranteed. But if I get fired after the first year, I don’t get the full amount of the second year, just a buyout. The money doesn’t matter. I mean, as long as it’s not just something ridiculous. It’s not about the money. It’s the second year.”
Cashman never even mentioned the proposal to management. He went back in the room, who knows what was said, the no took a minute. He never even mentioned it.
An addendum in closing, after everything Joe Torre did for this franchise Hal Steinbrenner added insult to injury by saying, “You can always work for the YES Network.”
Say what you want about Torre as a manager. But management treated him like garbage at the end and he deserved better.
Chip, you quoted my comment when you posted the juvenile insult. So you clearly intended it. You can state your positions without the insults. The only one here who can puil off the insult routine successfully is GB7, and he can do it only because we all know he’s is a crusty old codger.
As to the substance, no one has said – not even Doug – that Brett Gardner is more important to the Yanks than ARod, Tex or CC. It doesn’t help an argument to assign to the opposition a position they aren’t arguing.
This is rehashing an old topic but Torre was never the same manager after Zim left.
Joe relied so heavily on Zimmer’s ability to see how the game was unfolding and base his strategies on that. The guys who followed Zimmer weren’t in that same class and in some cases I don’t think Torre trusted them.
He knew Zimmer was never out for his job – the same can’t be said about Randolph, Maz or Girardi.
Torre was, for the most part, a tremendous clubhouse manager – in that he kept egos in check and got superstars to buy into the role player mentality – but on the field he was slow to adjust and quick to lose trust in a guy.
Towards the end I detested the way he treated Alex especially and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the ice started to melt between Jeter and Alex when Torre left.
You got that from Torre’s book, no?
You don’t think there’s a second side to the story? And possibly a third? And that the reality of the situation lies somewhere between?
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 11:07 am
Chip, you quoted my comment when you posted the juvenile insult. So you clearly intended it. You can state your positions without the insults. The only one here who can puil off the insult routine successfully is GB7, and he can do it only because we all know he’s is a crusty old codger.
As to the substance, no one has said – not even Doug – that Brett Gardner is more important to the Yanks than ARod, Tex or CC. It doesn’t help an argument to assign to the opposition a position they aren’t arguing.
——————————-
*sigh*
Fine – you win. I apologize for insulting you.
Will that put an end to your whining on the subject
I always liked Torre but $7MM is a lot of money to pay a manager. I guess they figured if he turned down the offer they could always get similar “production” for less money. Which is true.
And it did seem like they wouldn’t have minded paying him all that money but they wanted better results.
On the other hand I saw Torre’s side of it as well. The incentives made it seem like he wasn’t putting forth his best effort in the postseason which was BS. He also didn’t want to go through another season dealing with another contract negotiation so soon on the horizon.
when management gives a vote of confidence for a manager, we all know it’s usually the kiss of death for the manager.
the fact Hal chose to give Cashman a vote of confidence at a time when Cashman is on the hot seat for going into the season with one of the thinnest pitching rotations is recent yankee history can be interpreted in multiple ways.
to me it’s really simple. Cashman is betting his job that the yankees will make the playoffs despite his inaction on putting together a solid starting rotation.
if the yankees don’t make the playoffs, at an end of the season press conference, Hal will glance at a mirror to make sure his hair is in place and announce that despite Brain Cashman being a great yankee, the yankees are going in a different direction.
off camera, hank will say” Bleepin A” as he flips his cigarette butt to the ground.
The Yanks didn’t rehire Torre at the price he wanted. How is that “treating him like garbage”?
torre put everyone in that position because he stayed too long and couldnt give it up!
and pitching a counteroffer on the way to the meeting is an act of desparation.
Chip January 28th, 2011 at 11:08 am
Towards the end I detested the way he treated Alex especially and I don?t think it?s a coincidence that the ice started to melt between Jeter and Alex when Torre left.
***********************
Chip-I’ve always felt this way too.
“Will that put an end to your whining on the subject”
Chip, apologize nicely. A graceless apology is none at all.
86w183 I was just stating what if he werent injured and kept up what he was doing the 1st half of the season (healthy). I believe he hit over .320 the 1st half and then got hit in the wrist. I dont think it is too outer worldly to think he could have kept it up if healthy. Maybe dropping some to hitting .310.
upstate kate January 28th, 2011 at 11:05 am
Chip
you don’t care about us???
——————
Well the ones I give recipes to are obvious exceptions to the rule.
Great article, Doug. Gardner was outstanding last year. In fact, your statistics left out two additional values that Gardner brought.
As a stolen base threat, he helped batters behind him get better pitches to hit. Also, he had a very high average pitches per at bat, which helped wear out opposing SPs.
Sometimes common sense is all one needs to dismiss an idiotic notion or idiotic use of statistics.
The notion that Brett Garner is one of the top outfielders in baseball is idiotic, as is the use of strange stats to back it up.
It does not make me (or others) Gardner haters or critics to point that out. He’s a good ball player with a chance to become even better as his game matures. He is an excellent defensive player with great speed.
He’s also a guy who has never hit .280 let alone the .320 that was fantasized about above. His one full season included more strikeouts (101) than runs (97) and 132 hits.
Cooperstown may have to wait another year or two
–
Do you think it is not valuable to: Make the least amount of outs while simultaneously creating the most defensive outs in baseball?
The article isn’t saying that Brett Gardner is Albert Pujols or whatever silly notion you’ve got in your head because it used stats you don’t understand. It says Gardner’s 2010 was very good, because he was good offensively and ELITE defensively. The best things a baseball player can do is not make outs on offense and then convert outs on defense. Brett Gardner excels at both these things.
Gardner did hit .320, up until he hurt his wrist. Its not like he wasn’t hitting it for 3 full months. Melky Cabrera has never had a 3 month stretch as good as Gardner had in 2010 before injury. Maybe Gardner’s style of play is going to lead to an injury prone career where he never fully puts it together, but even injured Gardner provided significant value last year.
Your criticisms are weird, more strikeouts than runs? 132 hits? Yea he only had 480 at bats. He hit .277. .270 is good by any measure. Its not like he hit .240. And he was a .300 hitter who, if you recall, lined a Josh Beckett fastball over SS the other way for the Yankees first RBI last year.
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 11:12 am
“Will that put an end to your whining on the subject”
Chip, apologize nicely. A graceless apology is none at all.
—————————-
Do you believe Brett Gardner is more valuable than CC, Tex or Alex?
If you do not then if you re-read what I wrote you will see that I did not insult you in the first place.
If you do – then I stand behind what I said.
Either way – you need to firm up your grasp of sarcasm.
“to me it’s really simple. Cashman is betting his job that the yankees will make the playoffs despite his inaction on putting together a solid starting rotation.”
randy-
Everybody was on board for the Yanks to chase Lee. Given that, what could Cashman have done this off-season to put together a solid starting rotation that he hasn’t done?
randy, you may be correct. or maybe you see brian cashman, dripping champaign, handing hal (who’s hair is all messed up) the world series trophy.
…nobody will remember that cashman’s new contract was announced 2 weeks later via press release…
on his way out of the yankees offices, hank will say” Bleepin A” as he flips his cigarette butt to the ground.
Easily the least persuasive commentary between the guest post and the comment section is the posts saying Gardner would not be that valuable because I said so.
Randy -
It’s not as if Cashman was fiddling while Rome burned (which by the way is a tremendous myth as Nero was not even in Rome when Rome burned – but that’s another story)
Cashman had a target that he didn’t get and felt the price was prohibitive on Greinke.
He could have gone out and signed a bunch of mediocre guys to expensive contracts like other teams did but that really doesn’t help the team at all does it?
Instead he’s banking on one of two things happening:
A) Some of his young pitchers develop enough this spring to help out by midseason
B) Teams that have pitching depth fall out of the race by mid July and better guys become available via trade than are available right now.
“Either way – you need to firm up your grasp of sarcasm.”
If it was sarcasm, it was pretty good. I personally think “ironic” would be the mot juste.
“if that’s your worst criticism of fangraphs then fangraphs is doing a pretty good job.”
wave your hat-
i don’t know enough about fangraphs to have more criticism.
the problem with it is when i do look up something i know like wang i see total misrepresentation.
i can only assume any organization that makes an error that big must make a lot of other ones.
LGY January 28th, 2011 at 11:20 am
Easily the least persuasive commentary between the guest post and the comment section is the posts saying Gardner would not be that valuable because I said so.
———————-
I don’t recall anyone saying he wouldn’t be valuable.
What was said is that he isn’t as valuable as CC, Tex or Alex.
Which is akin to saying – Derek Fisher is valuable – he’s just not as valuable as Kobe, Gasol and Odom.
Good article, but all those crazy stats make me just that.
Gardner had a successful year and I like him a lot.
For him :
It’s all about gettin’ on base, stealing, and scoring runs, driving in a fair number for his spot in the order, and playing good defense.
Simple game.
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 11:22 am
“Either way – you need to firm up your grasp of sarcasm.”
If it was sarcasm, it was pretty good. I personally think “ironic” would be the mot juste.
——————
Future reference – when you see a
or LOL or some other nonsense like that at the end of an insult – odds are it is being said sarcastically.
the problem with it is when i do look up something i know like wang i see total misrepresentation.
–
It says he throws a fastball. Its cosmetic at worst. Whats your problem? Its not like it is assigning completely different values to any of Wang’s statistics because it calls his sinking fastball a fastball.
Doreen January 28th, 2011 at 11:09 am
You got that from Torre’s book, no? You don’t think there’s a second side to the story? And possibly a third? And that the reality of the situation lies somewhere between?
*****************
No I do not Doreen. I believe that Joe Torre is as honest as the day is long and that is exactly what happened, I do not think that is even in dispute.
Larry Bowa said it about as well as anyone could.
“For a guy with what he’s done for the city and that team, that’s the one thing I thought was very unfair. I don’t think he was treated the right way. I mean, I think Joe earned that right to go out on his own, and he should have earned the right to open the new stadium. At least they should have said, ‘O.K., this year we’ll give you, and for the new stadium you have an option if you want to stay or not, or go upstairs and be an adviser.’ I really thought that was going to happen because of what Joe meant to the city, the players who played there and to the organization. And it didn’t happen like that. It turned out to be an ugly ending.”
Doug,
Excellent follow up post to last years! I was on the Gardner bandwagon from jump street because he had the speed that this lineup sorely lacked. Before Brett was injected into the offense, the team was strictly wait for the 3 run homer like in the Torre days. Some years that approach works and some years it fails miserably.
I don’t understand the clamoring of Yankee fans to trade this guy. He is one of the fastest players in the league and creates havoc when he gets on base. He also gets on base a lot.
If Brett’s wrist is sound (and I hope it is) I also expect him to pick up where he left off prior to getting drilled on the wrist.
Still dumbfounded that this blog was once split 60-40 in favor of Melky (maybe more than that) and that fans of Gardner’s were called “racists” for wanting him to get his shot. His speed and ability to get on base were tools Melky never could have matched.
Thank God those days are over in here. In a lineup filled with a lot high paid stars, it’s refreshing to have a guy like Gardner get up there and make things happen.
I hold out hope that Girardi lets him lead off this season. With his on base percentage and ability to get to 2nd from first (whether it be a walk or single), it’s the best use of resources to let him hit atop the order.
Jerkface —-
My criticism was directly targeted at the author’s notion that Gardner is one of the 10-12 best all around outfielders in baseball. He’s not one of the 10 best all around outfielders in the AL East.
Yes, it is idiotic to assign such lofty status to a guy who has not played a full season. As a speed guy, it IS significant that he has more strikeouts than runs scored. Is that beyond your grasp?
I like the guy and think he’ll be better in 2011 than in 2010, but the rank him among the best in the game and claim he was the best defensive player in all of baseball is flat out absurd.
I UNDERSTAND the stats…. I UNDERSTAND that they are pure nonsense
Which is akin to saying – Derek Fisher is valuable – he’s just not as valuable as Kobe, Gasol and Odom.
–
You can’t use a basketball analogy here, first of all why are you calling Gardner Derek Fisher? Gardner doesn’t make outs and creates lots of outs defensively, find a basketball player that scores a lot of points per game and also stops opponents from scoring points per game, and then analyze that contribution versus Kobe’s contributions. Then maybe its not so wide a gap.
Gardner can provide more value than CC while not being quite as valuable. You know why? Because its not often you’re going to find starting pitchers who throw 220 IP reliably at a great ERA with the stamina and guts to give you 7 or 8 IP every outing. It doesn’t diminish either’s accomplishments to say that, for the 2010 season if you consider offense and defense Gardner provided more value.
At its basest level the very point of an offensive player’s plate appearance is to not make an out. IF everyone did not make an out they would score runs infinitely. And don’t forget, Sabathia is helped directly by the defense behind him, as he doesn’t strike out 100% of batters.
Some of you see comparative statements and take them to extremes.
Saying Russ Martin isn’t as good a catcher as Joe Mauer isn’t the same as saying Russ Martin is a bad catcher
Saying Derek Jeter isn’t as fast as Brett Gardner doesn’t mean Derek Jeter is slow
Saying Brett Gardner isn’t as valuable as Alex Rodriguez isn’t the same as saying Brett Gardner is garbage. He’s just not as valuable as the team’s #1 pitcher and All Star corner infielders and middle of the order hitters.
” (which by the way is a tremendous myth as Nero was not even in Rome when Rome burned – but that’s another story)”
chip-
sorry if i don’t take the above statement as fact . i’m going to have check with GB7 first since i’m sure he was in the Colosseum ranking young prospective gladiators.
From Ken Rosenthal:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....NYC-012711
Chip, I understood YOU were being sarcastic. MY response was ironic, not sarcastic. I’m not big on sarcasm, I think unless you are a very talented writer it is very hard to do sarcasm well.
West Coast,
You need a better source than an autobiography A’s your empirical source into a guy you haven’t met.
“Honest A’s the day is long”? Nice saying, not applicable in this instance.
You don’t think that a guy is going to recall a situation in his autobiography to his detriment do you?
It’s as foolish a notion A’s believing Brian Cashman could have saved his job after he turned down a deal that STILL would have made him the highest paid manager in the game.
But, hey, if you want to believe fantasy, fine by me.
Wave Your Hat January 28th, 2011 at 11:33 am
Chip, I understood YOU were being sarcastic. MY response was ironic, not sarcastic. I’m not big on sarcasm, I think unless you are a very talented writer it is very hard to do sarcasm well.
—————–
Writing sarcasm is easy – finding readers who are intelligent enough to see sarcasm in written form vs. spoken is difficult.
Chip
I meant that as in he would not be as valuable as Doug lays out if he puts up that production.
Dougs article is far and away more persusive than the opposite commentary on here.
WCYF -
But as far as I know, Cashman has not really spoken about what happened from his end. The Yankees are on record as saying if they didn’t want Torre back they wouldn’t have offered a contract at all. One can choose to believe or disbelieve, but that’s what was said. The absolute truth lies between the lines.
And while I don’t dispute Torre as an honest person, even honest people can have a lack of objectivity when it comes to their own lives. He doesn’t know what Brian was thinking. He doesn’t know what Brian said on his behalf, if anything, prior to that meeting.
I’m not saying it was a pretty scene or how I might have hoped the end occurred. But at least I’m open to thinking that there just might be a couple of ways of looking at the situation.
“IF everyone did not make an out they would score runs infinitely”
jerkface-
in that case the most valuable player would be one that made outs .
He’s not one of the 10 best all around outfielders in the AL East.
Yes, it is idiotic to assign such lofty status to a guy who has not played a full season. As a speed guy, it IS significant that he has more strikeouts than runs scored. Is that beyond your grasp?
I like the guy and think he’ll be better in 2011 than in 2010, but the rank him among the best in the game and claim he was the best defensive player in all of baseball is flat out absurd.
I UNDERSTAND the stats…. I UNDERSTAND that they are pure nonsense
–
Uh, explain how strike outs are more significant because he is a speed guy? Is this going to be a ‘he has to beat it out with his legs!’ thing? Please name the 10 better outfielders in the AL east. He led the AL East outfielders in on base. He was the best defender in the AL east( and major league baseball ). He is stole nearly 50 bases in 550 PA, when the league leader in SB had 200 more plate appearances than Gardner.
Why isn’t he the best defender in the game? He got a load of assists. He had elite range. He tracked down everything. I don’t see a compelling argument against.
You seem to put into a froth that a statistic would dare suggest Gardner is a good player. If you know the rules of baseball, you’ll understand why Gardner is good. At the most instinctual level, as I have explained, baseball is about not making outs while creating the most outs for your opposition. Gardner is great at both. Ergo…
If you had a line up of 9 Gardner’s that lineup would score something like 5.5+ runs per game. Not to mention it would remove the starting pitcher around the 3rd inning
Randy-
That is NOT what GB would be doing at the
Colosseum.
I can assure you.
in that case the most valuable player would be one that made outs
–
Because the game would end??
Jerkface January 28th, 2011 at 11:30 am
Which is akin to saying – Derek Fisher is valuable – he’s just not as valuable as Kobe, Gasol and Odom.
–
You can’t use a basketball analogy here, first of all why are you calling Gardner Derek Fisher? Gardner doesn’t make outs and creates lots of outs defensively, find a basketball player that scores a lot of points per game and also stops opponents from scoring points per game, and then analyze that contribution versus Kobe’s contributions. Then maybe its not so wide a gap.
Gardner can provide more value than CC while not being quite as valuable. You know why? Because its not often you’re going to find starting pitchers who throw 220 IP reliably at a great ERA with the stamina and guts to give you 7 or 8 IP every outing. It doesn’t diminish either’s accomplishments to say that, for the 2010 season if you consider offense and defense Gardner provided more value.
At its basest level the very point of an offensive player’s plate appearance is to not make an out. IF everyone did not make an out they would score runs infinitely. And don’t forget, Sabathia is helped directly by the defense behind him, as he doesn’t strike out 100% of batters.
——————-
Even if you eliminate CC from the conversation based on the different roles they play – I would still sooner remove Gardner from the team and go with a backup in LF than I would remove Tex or Alex.
‘ “Honest A’s the day is long”?” ‘
sj44-
are you subliminally trying to tell us you are really an A’s fan ?
Good morning all,
I am running out for the day, but wouldn’t mind some good news when I return.
————————————————————————————-
Chip,
We were dscussing where we live the other day. You said Chappaqua. I am in Armonk. Small
world.
The other reason I know is that the Colosseum was NOT the minor leagues.
Those guys played for keeps.
Definitely the Majors.
Erin-
Its Ernie’s Birthday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(And I got the story from GB last night. Very cute. Thank you
)
“Because the game would end??”
yes, it’s one of those ” sound of one hand bunting” things .
LGY January 28th, 2011 at 11:35 am
Chip
I meant that as in he would not be as valuable as Doug lays out if he puts up that production.
Dougs article is far and away more persusive than the opposite commentary on here.
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In your opinion perhaps.
As I said – if given the choice between losing Gardner for the season or losing Alex or Tex I’m taking out Gardner without hesitation.
I can find a new LF who can hit in the 9 spot either via trade or in the minors – or simply on my bench. I cannot find players who will produce at the level of Alex or Tex and their loss would further disrupt the entire lineup as players would have to be juggled around into new spots.
I tried to stay away… but 86w183′s “crusade against knowledge” is quite hilarious.
SAS January 28th, 2011 at 11:39 am
Good morning all,
I am running out for the day, but wouldn’t mind some good news when I return.
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Chip,
We were dscussing where we live the other day. You said Chappaqua. I am in Armonk. Small
world.
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Hope you’re all dug out.
If Gardner was on another team, people would want the Yankees to get him.
In the Melky/Brett wars on the Lohud, I fell on the side of Melky and had a “show me” attitude toward Gardner.
Melky had an abysmal season with the Braves, but I’m not ready to say he can’t still be a good player for someone.
However, Gardner did “show me.” He’s an asset to the team. He’s improved as a defender (just going by what I remember from watching games 2009 vs. 2010). He works on his game. He’s a tough competitor. My only worry about him is the head-first slides that will make him vulnerable to wrist/hand/thumb injuries. We may never see a full season of Brett Gardner.
I really wish he did not get injured last season, because I would have like to have seen how he held up over the course of an entire season. We know Melky always petered out by season’s end. Would Gardner have had a more steady season? I am impressed, though, that even though his hitting was compromised, he was still able to get on base. I know he had good SB numbers, but I think he can and should do better. More attempts. He’s fast. And it will always take a good throw to get him.
I’m getting very excited about the new season!
Erica-awesome!! Happy Birthday Ernie
Think Bert got him a new rubber duckie???
Also-check out my post at 10:08.
Irreverent Discourse January 28th, 2011 at 11:41 am
I tried to stay away… but 86w183?s “crusade against knowledge” is quite hilarious.
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I wouldn’t call it a crusade against knowledge.
Different people can see/enjoy the game in different ways.
Randy,
The iPad is killin’ me today! lol
I can find a new LF who can hit in the 9 spot either via trade or in the minors – or simply on my bench. I cannot find players who will produce at the level of Alex or Tex and their loss would further disrupt the entire lineup as players would have to be juggled around into new spots
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Yea its easy to find a replacement when you boil gardner down to: leftfielder that hits 9th.
Its more difficult when you start adding what he does well: lead the league in defense, lead all AL outfielders in on base percentage, lead AL east in stolen bases, etc.
I agree that you probably don’t want to get rid of guys like A-rod and Tex, but this is baseball you have 9 positions. Tex can play 1 of them at an elite level. A-rod can play 2 at this point. Gardner can play 3. I wouldn’t want to remove any of the 3 from my team and saying Gardner was more valuable in 2010 is not an insult to A-rod or Tex.
Chip
In my opinion?
It is a well researched andArgued post vs the peanut gallery on here saying he is wrong because I said so and because of his stupid stats.
To borrow a tactic from this group, you have to be an idiot to not be able to discern the more persuasive case here.
SJ,
See if you can put SWYPE on your iPad? It will change your life.
Looking at Gardner as a 9th hitter is missing the reality of the situation.
If it were not for the “legacy of Jeter”, Gardner is a lead off hitter. Likely one of the best in the league once given the long-term opportunity.
It’s not so easy to say “well we can just replace our leadoff hitting best defensive outfielder with a scrub” now, is it?
“I mean, I think Joe earned that right to go out on his own, and he should have earned the right to open the new stadium. At least they should have said, ‘O.K., this year we’ll give you, and for the new stadium you have an option if you want to stay or not, or go upstairs and be an adviser.’” -Bowa
Hehehehe.. man, I love the off season because it gives us a chance to rehash history however we want without those pesky facts getting in the way. I’m glad I’m able to be around today though. Wouldn’t have known Joe Torre was on par with Honest Abe otherwise.
“The iPad is killin’ me today! lol”
i would pay a lot of money to read Gb7′s posts if he was typing on an ipad .
In 2010, A-rod did not play gold glove defense and did not get on base as he usually does (.380), Mark Teixeira was not an elite 1st baseman in 2010.
It would be easier to find a replacement for both of those players at third base in 2010 than for Gardner in leftfield.
SJ44 January 28th, 2011 at 11:34 am
West Coast, You need a better source than an autobiography A’s your empirical source into a guy you haven’t met. You don’t think that a guy is going to recall a situation in his autobiography to his detriment do you?
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You mean a better source like you? A blogger?
Allow me to set upu straight as your post above is filled with your usual number of inaccuracies.
1. I have met Joe Torre three times, including once where I spoke with him about baseball for a short time at a Safe at Home event in Los Angeles.
2. Torre’s book is not an auto-biography. He co-wrote it with Tom Verducci and it contains “independent reporting” as well as Torre’s recollections, according to Verducci. This is where you slam Verducci right?
“The book is not a first-person book by Joe Torre, it’s a third-person narrative based on 12 years of knowing the Yankees and it’s about the changes in the game in that period.” — Tom Verducci
“i would pay a lot of money to read Gb7?s posts if he was typing on an ipad”
Probably need one of those Rosetta Stone programs to understand THAT language.
Chip – Ignoring things because you don’t understand them, and dismissing their value when it is brought to you by people that do understand them is indeed a “quest against knowledge”.
It would be akin to an astronomer telling you there is a black hole at the center of the galaxy, and you responding “I’ve been looking at space for 50+ years and I’ve never seen it. You must be wrong.”.
The only reason Gardner is a 9th hitter is out of this allegiance to Jeter’s ego.
Brett Gardner would probably be the one of the best leadoff guys in baseball given the chance.
At some point Joe is going to have to put Brett leadoff and Cano in the 3 hole. It’s the future of this team and I think the future is now. We cannot sit through another early season Tex slump in the 3 hole and Jeter has to hit for a higher average and get on base a lot more to be a good leadoff guy.
Meant at third base AND first base. It will take a lot of seasons for Gardner to be as valuable in his career as A-rod or Teixeira, but if you look at the 2010 season its not crazy to say Gardner could provide more value than either. They didn’t have great years. both had down years. Luckily they are still both tremendous players who help the team even in a down year (like Gardner still helped even when injured), A-rod with his clutch hitting and Tex with his good defense.
But geez, Tex had a below .900 OPS as a first baseman. 10 first baseman had better OPS than him. 3 had OPS’s over 1!
New Post: Worth a long look
Jerkface January 28th, 2011 at 11:45 am
I can find a new LF who can hit in the 9 spot either via trade or in the minors – or simply on my bench. I cannot find players who will produce at the level of Alex or Tex and their loss would further disrupt the entire lineup as players would have to be juggled around into new spots
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Yea its easy to find a replacement when you boil gardner down to: leftfielder that hits 9th.
Its more difficult when you start adding what he does well: lead the league in defense, lead all AL outfielders in on base percentage, lead AL east in stolen bases, etc.
I agree that you probably don’t want to get rid of guys like A-rod and Tex, but this is baseball you have 9 positions. Tex can play 1 of them at an elite level. A-rod can play 2 at this point. Gardner can play 3. I wouldn’t want to remove any of the 3 from my team and saying Gardner was more valuable in 2010 is not an insult to A-rod or Tex.
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I wholly disagree with your statement.
You’re giving Brett additional value as a 4th OF – which is fine – but also irrelevant. The Yankees have fourth OF candidates who are going to be used in that role likely more than Gardner will.
Again it boils down to this – if the Yankees lose Brett Gardner right now who is the everyday LF? Andruw Jones probably right?
If the Yankees lost Alex or Tex who takes their spots? Eduardo Nunez? Jorge Posada? Jorge Vazquez?
So you tell me – over the course of a season which would you rather see in the lineup: Andruw Jones in LF or Eduardo Nunez/Jorge Vazquez at 3b & 1b respectively?
I’ll take Jones.
WCYF,
You do realize that Verducci never talked with Cashman about the book when he was writing it and thus, never got his side of the story and the course of events? So is it fair, to just accept that portion of the story as the gospel truth when the whole story hasn’t been told from different perspectives?
And like 86w said, Don’t put Gardner in the hall of fame! Or whatever, but no one is arguing that. Its silly.
No one is saying Gardner is the best LFer of all time, or that he has a better career than anyone.
It is perfectly possibly for a player that may not be as good overall as other players to put up a season that is more valuable. There’s a fun baseball simulation website that is kind of like fantasy baseball, except you ‘draft’ single seasons by players. Each is assigned dollar values, so you can’t just grab like every Barry bonds season or whatever (and it includes defense for the position anyways), and if you are looking at single seasons you could argue that Brady Anderson smacking 56 HRs is more valuable than a given Jeter season, right? But I wouldn’t say Brady Anderson had a better career, or is more valuable for his career.
Gardner can play 3 positions!
Thanx for proving you’re completely out of touch in your man crush. He has a very good LF arm, a decent RF arm and a way below average RF arm.
Again, I like Brett Gardner… but guy has to hit over .277 for a whole season before I can consider him the best all around OF on the Yankees let alone among the best in all of baseball. LF is the easiest position in baseball to play and great defense in LF is not all that valuable.
Had this blog existed a few years back Jerkface and others would use their EXTREMELY limited sample size to promote Shane Spencer as one of the best all around OF on the planet.
I’m done….. happy day all
I still haven’t seen the 10 better AL east outfielders you crazy person.
Chip – His value as a 4th OF is not irrelevant, A-Rod doesn’t play short when Jeter needs a day or, nor does Tex play 3rd when Alex needs rest.
You only see Gardner as replaceable because he’s still at the early stage of his career, and only performed at this level for a short time. Another season or 2 like last year and he will be equally as irreplaceable as Alex and Tex.
In the small sample size of 2010, Gardner was more valuable and less replaceable than both Tex and Arod.
Chip,
Your argument just doesn’t fly. It was easier to find a replacement for Tex or A-rod’s 2010 production than Gardner’s, thats all. WAR doesn’t take into account the contractual obligations of all players at all positions. It doesn’t have to. The presence of Andruw Jones does not diminish Gardner’s value on the field. If you have to replace Gardner with Jones, the drop off will be significant, maybe as significant as A-rod to Nunez or Tex to whoever.
Though it is MUCH EASIER to find a guy who can sit at 1st and hit than it is to find a leftfielder that will lead the league in defense and on base.
And was Verducci in the room when the contract offer was made?
Who was Verducci’s source on the contract offer and the surrounding circumstances of that day?
It was not an independent source for that particular instance.
It was Joe Torre.
“Thanx for proving you’re completely out of touch in your man crush. He has a very good LF arm, a decent RF arm and a way below average RF arm.”
This is so wrong I don’t know where to start.
“great defense in LF is not all that valuable”
The Yankee’s have one of the largest left fields in baseball. You are completely clueless.
Gardner was in the Top 3 of defensive centerfielders in 09 and 2010 (when he played). He is so elite in left field simply because the position is overmatched for him.
So, we are playing “set you straight games”?
Ok, I’ll play.
I’ve known Joe Torre since 1989, when I was introduced to him by a client.
Arthur Richman, who was the guy who was pushing Joe to George to manage the Yankees in 1996, after he interviewed with George for the GM’s job, asked me, A’s well A’s several others, to put in a good word with George and several of the minority owners that I knew to help him get the gig.
I didn’t have to do it because by the time Arthur asked me, Joe was getting the job anyway.
I’ve been to every Safe At Home gala in NY since it’s inception. I’ve also contributed to the cause.
I also got Joe to do the forward for a client of mine’s book on Don Mattingly that will be out in March.
His book with Verducci was not called an autobiography for one reason………Joe had already written one.
Verducci’s pitch to his publisher was to chronicle Joe’s life with the Yankees.
So, it’s basically his “Yankee Autobiography”.
I happen to like Joe Torre. A LOT, quite frankly.
However, A’s I do with friends, clients and everybody else, I don’t tell them what they want to hear.
I tell them the truth.
The truth is, Joe was treated VERY well by the Yankees and Joe did a great job managing the team.
HOWEVER, it was time for a change and BOTH parties knew it.
It was always going to be a tough parting but, neither side treated the other side like “garbage”.
In fact, if you talk to Torre now, he will tell you he not only believes he was treated well by the Yankees, he wishes he didn’t write the book.
I hope Gardner’s wrist has healed and he can hit like he did in the first half of 2010. If he can reach this level again, then he will be a very valuable player.