The LoHud Yankees Blog

One of the themes I’m planning to write about in my column for tomorrow is how, despite the move for Rafael Soriano, the Yankees still haven’t truly addressed their biggest need this offseason: Starting pitching.

For me, upgrading the bullpen – while always a positive for any team – wasn’t nearly as important as addressing their starters and when Cliff Lee turned down the Yankees they were left in a tough spot. The options below Lee were, to say the least, less-appealing.

Carl Pavano was on that list (he might have even been at the top of it) and so it wasn’t a total surprise to hear that GM Brian Cashman told reporters this morning that the Yankees had a few discussions with Pavano’s agent, Tom O’Connell. Could a remarriage with Pavano have worked here? I doubt it. I think Pavano is much better suited to a smaller market like Minnesota, though you certainly can’t fault Cashman for exploring it. If Andy Pettitte retires, the Yankees are staring at a pretty blank slate when it comes to the fourth and fifth starters – not exactly the scenario you want when spring training is a month away.

So, just for fun: Would you have been OK with a return to New York for Pavano? Or was his disaster here the last time just too much to ever overcome?

* That’s an AP shot of Pavano actually pitching in a game for the Yankees.

Up next in our Pinch Hitters series is Brandon Courter, a 25-year-old who describes himself as a “Yankee fan who appreciates great intellectual conversation about baseball rather than the infamous ‘Boston sucks because we don’t like them.’” That said, Courter says, “I still dislike Boston and the Mets, quite a lot.” For his guest post, Brandon looked at this winter’s top two free agent position players and determined that the Yankees will be glad they never got seriously involved in those negotiations.

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Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford.

These two free agents signed some impressive contracts this off-season, starting with the albatross deal bestowed upon Jayson Werth. Werth was a late bloomer, becoming a regular with Philadelphia in 2007. Since then, his slash line is .282/.380/.506 with an OPS+ of 131. These are impressive numbers, which lead me to believe the annual value Jayson Werth received was fair. (7 yr, 126MM = 18MM/year)

The year part of the contract is where it starts to get a bit dicey. Jayson will play his age 32 season this year, the first year in his mega deal. If we dig deeper into the numbers, it turns out that players usually get worse as they get older (let’s not tell Barry Bonds this) – in fact, if you look at the single season leaders in OPS+ , the highest age in the top thirty is 38, by Ted Williams.

I’ve decided to remove Barry Bonds, as anyone can see a drug-induced superstar in their late 30’s can cause the data to skew just a bit. If we dig deeper, Babe Ruth had an amazing season at age 36, and that’s about it. While these players are far beyond what Jayson Werth can do, the point is driven home clearly: After 35, it’s a complete crap-shoot what you’re going to get.

Yankee fans, remember Bernie Williams and his drive off the cliff of productiveness?

Next example: Carl Crawford, the golden boy of the Rays, an exciting player, fast, dynamic, and… not that good.

Say what?

Carl Crawford is the first player in MLB history to receive a nine-figure contract without a 20 home run season. In fact, as early as an injury filled season in 2008, he was BELOW average.

Carl Crawford may have just gotten lucky. This year he had a campaign similar to Werth in performance – OPS+ of 134, in line with what Werth has had the past few years. The problem here is that Crawford did it once – before this year, his previous best was 117, a noticeable tick below the numbers Werth displayed.

Crawford has a great glove and excellent speed, which means that he should age fairly well, which is a great sign for Boston. Even better, Crawford is only entering his age 29 season. In a worst case scenario, Boston has a player comparable to Johnny Damon in his prime – a very good player, just not one worth so much money!

Regardless, Yankee fans should rejoice. Cashman did not stomp the panic button and hurt us with bad contracts for years to come. Give it a few years, we’ll be the ones smiling in the end. Go Yanks!

Associated Press photo of Crawford

Apparently Rafael Soriano is in good health and, with his physical out of the way, the Yankees will introduce him at a press conference tomorrow morning.

Here’s the official release:

The New York Yankees today announced they have signed 2010 All-Star right-handed pitcher Rafael Soriano to a three-year contract.

Soriano, 31, led the American League with a career-high 45 saves in 2010, going 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA (62.1IP, 12ER), 57 strikeouts and a .163 opponents batting average for the Tampa Bay Rays.  He became only the fourth pitcher in Major League history to reach those totals for saves, ERA and opponents average in a single season, joining Oakland’s Dennis Eckersley in 1990, Los Angeles-NL’s Eric Gagne in 2003 and Florida’s Armando Benitez in 2004.

His 45 saves were the third-most in the Majors behind San Francisco’s Brian Wilson (48) and San Diego’s Heath Bell (47), while his 93.8 save conversion rate (45-of-48) led the AL and ranked second in the Majors behind Bell (94.0).  Among American League relievers, he ranked second in opponents batting average and third in ERA. Soriano also received consideration for the AL Cy Young Award, placing eighth in the voting – the highest finish by a reliever in 2010 AL balloting.

Originally signed by Seattle as a non-drafted free agent in 1996, Soriano has made 342 Major League appearances (eight starts) over nine seasons with the Mariners (2002-06), Braves (2007-09) and Rays (2010), going 11-20 with 88 saves (in 105 chances), a 2.73 ERA (395.0IP, 120ER) and 422 strikeouts.

A native of San Jose, Dominican Republic, Soriano has limited opponents to a .185 batting average in his career as a reliever, the second-lowest mark among all active Major League relievers with at least 1,200 batters faced behind only Carlos Marmol (.158). Right-handed batters have hit just .162 (124-for-767) against Soriano in his career, marking the lowest such average among all active pitchers (minimum 500 batters faced).

Over the last two seasons, in which he has served primarily as a closer, Soriano has allowed the seventh-lowest opponents batting average (.180), the seventh-fewest baserunners/9.0IP (8.61) and struck out the ninth-most batters (159) among all Major League relievers.

The Yankees roster now stands at 40.

* That’s an AP shot of Soriano.

Do yourself a favor and take a few minutes this afternoon to read about a Yankees fan who found a fantastic use for his prized memorabilia (with a little help from – who else? – Mariano Rivera).

Great job by LoHud colleague Ned Rauch on this story.

While finishing off the Rafael Soriano deal (and perhaps one with Andruw Jones), the Yankees also appear to have locked up three of their younger pitchers to new contracts ahead of the arbitration hearing dates.

Phil Hughes ($2.7 million), Joba Chamberlain ($1.4M) and Boone Logan ($1.2M) are all on the books now, according to SI’s Jon Heyman, and you’d have to say that’s a relative bargain in each case. For those who wonder why Joba – and pretty much any pitcher – would rather be a starter than a reliever, just take a look at which guy Chamberlain is closer to (Hughes or Logan) in terms of salary. Bottom line, a career as a reliever means always making less.

By the way, these three signings mean the Yankees are done with their arbitration-eligible players. The only other player was Sergio Mitre and he signed in December.

If you take a look at Russell Martin’s career statistics, you’ll very quickly notice that he’s essentially been two players in five years. From 2006-08, he was a stud – Rookie of the Year candidate, two-time All-Star, productive hitter. Then, over the past two seasons, he suddenly became a below-average player – lower slash line, regressing production and, finally, season-ending injury.

The Yankees, obviously, are hoping they’ll get something closer to the old Martin now that he’s going to be their everyday catcher, and Martin – in an interview with a Canadian paper – recently offered a sort of vague explanation for his struggles. The problem, Martin said, was that he was going through some “personal issues” that were distractions for him.

Now, since Martin wouldn’t specify what those issues were (or even give any kind of general category – family health, for example), it’s hard to know how legitimate an explanation that is. And, as we see here, there is at least one writer in Los Angeles (Martin’s former home) who is skeptical about Martin so simply explaining away his lack of production for the Dodgers.

Now, to be fair, we don’t know exactly what type of “personal issue” Martin is talking about. But as the L.A. writer said, there sure can be a lot of distractions in New York, too.

Batting third in our Pinch Hitters series is Joe Lovero, a 30-something screenwriter and director who grew up in Yonkers and currently lives in Greenwich. He’s happily married to “a beautiful die-hard Yankee fan,” and he was introduced to the Yankees by his parents, Marge and Leo. His sister Lisa once got Pedro Martinez’s autograph before a Red Sox game, “then proceeded to tear it up in front of his face.”

Joe sold a screenplay titled Book Of Leo to Universal Studios. According to Joe, the screenplay includes a scene in which the lead character “fulfills a lifelong dream by taking batting practice at Yankee Stadium against David Cone who proceeds to offer the lead character awkward and unwanted relationship/life advice. Really hoping that movie gets made with that scene in it as written. One of my dreams would definitely be to direct a movie scene in Yankee Stadium.”

In his guest post, Joe warns against clinging too tightly to prospects who might — or might not — live up to hype and expectation.

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I know you love them. They’re cute, cuddly and have yet to be spotted canoodling at Bungalow 8 with Snooki or a Kardashian. Yes, they’re “Prospects”. “Homegrown” – as if Yogi planted them in Monument Park and gently raised them with Babe Ruth Miracle Gro and a Lou Gehrig Garden Weasel (patent pending). These delightful little gumdrops are all the rage in Yankee-land at the moment.

The definition of “prospect” is “the possibility of future success” (key word being “possibility”). However, in recent years many Yankee fans have eliminated the word “possibility” from the definition. Prospect now means “sure things”. They’re top of the rotation starters, future all stars and even the “heir apparent” to Mo who hasn’t seemed to have heard he needs an “heir apparent”.

Mark Melancon was once Mo’s “heir apparent”. Baseball America projected he’d be our closer by 2011. He was a sure thing until he got to NY and couldn’t get anyone out. He’s in Houston now – traded for Fat Elvis. Mo can take a breath.

Remember Ed Yarnall aka “the next Andy Pettitte”? Or was that Brandon Claussen? I think Alex Gramman and Brad Halsey were also “next Andy Pettittes” for a moment. Now, Jeremy Bleich is. How many “next Andy Pettittes” does it take to make one Andy Pettitte? A crack team of researchers are still trying to find out. Come back Andy, please?

Ruben Rivera was once the next Bernie Williams with power. How’d that turn out? Joe Torre once tabbed Drew Henson as “a future superstar”. Uh huh. Baseball America projected Eric Duncan to be our 1b by 2010. He was on the Braves AA team last year. CJ Henry was once called a “potential impact bat” yet he turned out to be better at messing around and getting a triple double than hitting triples…or doubles.

For every Derek Jeter, there’s a Carmen Angelini. Whether it’s by good old fashioned hype, injury or poor performance, not all of these prospects make it to the majors. It’s wise to trade some of them for players who help win now especially when your team is a win now team.

Last season we reportedly could have gotten Cliff Lee if we included Eduardo Nunez or Ivan Nova in the potential package with Seattle. If Cliff helped us win back to back World Series championships spawning a new Yankee Dynasty, I think Yankee fans would have been okay with the cost. Yes, I know, that cost included Jesus Montero, but we’d still have can’t miss prospects Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez as future catchers. Not to mention once ‘ole Cliffy slipped on the pinstripes and his wife had the T-bone at NYY Steak (and got her personalized steak knife!), he would have surely stayed here. If he didn’t, we’d get draft picks. New prospects to hug!

Before the Internet we really didn’t know who any of these prospects were. When the Yankees traded Marty Janzen, Jason Jarvis and Mike Gordon for David Cone in 1995 there was no wailing over the talent we lost. We didn’t know who the Hell the three of them were! Sorry Marty.

When we traded Eric Milton (another “next Andy Pettitte” with a Yankee tattoo!), Cristian Guzman and others to Minnesota in 1998 for Chuck Knoblauch we gave up two future MLB players for one of the best 2b in the game. Good trade – helped both clubs. That’s how it’s supposed to work.

You see, it’s really okay to trade prospects. You can’t keep them all. If you do, it’s the baseball equivalent of hoarding and if you watch Hoarders you know it never ends well. I imagine a Professional Organizer trying to take away Ruben Rivera or Jackson Melian from some of you while you clutch them screaming on your front lawn, “No! They have five tools!”

The internet is clearly to blame for all this prospect hugging. Now we watch prospects on YouTube and dream of them in Yankee Stadium. Prospect grades and statistics are just a Google search away. Prospects have become too accessible. Life was easier when we didn’t know who they were.

Through all the hype, try to remember that they don’t all pan out. Some do. More don’t. It’s a 25 man roster. May the best 25 win.

I prefer to hug actual New York Yankees as opposed to prospects. I tried to hug Girardi in a Petco on Central Avenue in White Plains many years ago but he threw a bag of Eukanuba at me and ran for the door. Point being, I don’t root for the minor leaguers. I root for the Yankees. If prospects make it up to the big club, I’m their biggest fan. Until they get here, all they are to me are just a (slim) possibility of future success.

I implore you Prospect Huggers® to relax and go live your lives. The words “Can’t miss” and “The next so and so” need to be tempered until they show something at the major league level. Let them grow. Let them breathe. Let them find greener pastures if Seattle makes Felix Hernandez available.

Just don’t get so clingy. No one likes clingy. You hear me, Cashman?

Many of you know about my affinity for all things breakfast-related, and so it’s with great sadness that I say I won’t be able to attend tomorrow’s breakfast with Brian Cashman.

For those of you who a) want to hear Cashman speak; and b) are able to be in Cromwell, Conn., tomorrow morning, however, you may well have the chance to pass Cashman the syrup.

Here’s some more info on the breakfast from Cromwell’s local paper.

* Those are some pancakes.

I know, I know. I’m not supposed to be here today. But, it occurs to me that a lot of information is missed on the weekend, and I wanted to add one more post about the 88th annual awards dinner hosted by the New York Chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America.

The dinner will be held on Saturday, January 22, at the Hilton New York, located at 1335 Avenue of the Americas between West 53rd and 54th Streets. Cocktails start at 6 p.m., dinner starts at 7, and nearly all of our chapter award and national award winners are expected to be there (plus some really amazing guests).

Tickets are $225 each and can be purchased through Phil Pepe (philpepman@cs.com or 201-871-5924).

It really is a great night. Come on out if you can make it. Here is the complete list of the awards that will be presented at the dinner:

Willie, Mickey and the Duke Award: Joe Torre, Lou Piniella, Bobby Cox
Joan Payson Award for community service: George Steinbrenner
William J. Slocum-Jack Lang Award for Long and Meritorious Service: Bill Shannon
Joe DiMaggio Toast of the Town Award: Robinson Cano
Ben Epstein-Dan Castellano Good Guy Award: Phil Hughes
Sid Mercer-Dick Young Player of the Year Award: Josh Hamilton
Babe Ruth Award (Postseason MVP): Tim Lincecum
Casey Stengel You Could Look It Up Award: Harmon Killebrew
Arthur and Milton Richman You Gotta Have Heart Award: R.A. Dickey

American League MVP: Josh Hamilton
National League MVP: Joey Votto
American League Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
National League Cy Young: Roy Halladay
American League Rookie of the Year: Neftali Feliz
National League Rookie of the Year: Buster Posey
American League Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire
National League Manager of the Year: Bud Black

Hi everyone, Sam here. Hope everyone is doing well and enjoying the last part of the offseason. With Chad away this week, I’ll be jumping in when I can though the Jets have thrown a bit more on to my schedule than I – or anyone, really – expected this late in January. (Congrats to those here who are also Jets fans, by the way.)

Anyway, let’s start here: The flirting between the Yankees and Andruw Jones seems to be reaching a conclusion and, since we know it will be a low-cost deal, the real question is whether Jones is worth the gamble strictly from a production standpoint.

My initial take? Sure he is. Take a look at Jones’s splits and you see that clearly he’s becoming a one-sided player, but having a guy who has success against lefties is never a bad thing. To be honest, I’m a little surprised that Jones would want to come to the Yankees (over a team like, say, the Rays) simply because I don’t think there will be as many at-bats for him. If all goes as planned, Jorge Posada will be taking most of the DH days though Jones could find some ABs as the fourth outfielder if Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner have trouble against lefties.

Do I think Jones will be an impact player (here or anywhere)? I don’t. But side pieces are side pieces and the Yankees could certainly do worse than a right-handed bat with power. In truth, the biggest reaction I had to Jones came when I looked at his defensive stats and realized that wow, he’s clearly not even close to an elite defender anymore.

Remember when he was the best center fielder in the game? Talk about making you feel old …