The LoHud Yankees Blog

Next up in our Pinch Hitters series is Gil Teitelbaum, a computer programer who lives in Israel with his wife and four kids. Gil is a longtime Yankees fan, who says he’s hoping baseball will eventually become as popular in Israel as it is in the United States. He took a statistical look at the Yankees bench and bullpen from 1996 through 2010, trying to determine what kind of role those reserve players might have played in the Yankees successes and failures of the past decade and a half.

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The Yankees won the World Series four times over the 1996-2000 seasons.  In the ten years since, the Yankees have won the World Series only once.  Were those great teams built to better succeed in the playoffs?

I have had the impression that over the last ten years, the Yankees have sacrificed the bench and bullpen strength in favor of having an all star caliber player at each position.  I wanted to take a look and see if the quality of the bench and bullpen really has declined over the last ten years.

I wanted to find statistics that could convey both the quality and the quantity of the bench and bullpen.  Bench players and bullpen pitchers don’t play every day – I chose to look at ERA and OPS since those numbers aren’t affected by at bats or innings pitched.  Players who do not perform well during the regular season are rarely going to play in the playoffs – so I didn’t want to look at team totals for reliever ERA or OPS.

Pitchers: Relievers with ERAs above certain thresholds:

Hitters: Bench players with OPS exceeding certain percentages:

Given that anything can happen over a short playoff series, I didn’t want to analyze the results on a year to year basis because this can be misleading.  I wanted to look at a range of years to see how the makeup of a team over a span of several years affected winning in the playoffs.

After taking a look at the numbers I saw that:

• The Yankees had a strong bullpen from 1996 to 2001 and from 2006 to 2010.

• The Yankees had a strong bench from 1996 to 2000 and from 2003 to 2005

• There is rarely a time over the last ten years that the Yankees have had both a great bench and a great bullpen (Except in 2009)

• There weren’t any relievers that performed consistently well for the Yankees for any span of time longer than two years (with the exception of Mariano Rivera of course) over the last 10 years. This is in contrast crew of Rivera, Nelson, Stanton, Mendoza and Lloyd who were together in the late-90s and mostly performed well for a good number of years.

• My starting assumption was that the Yankees had a good lineup and rotation between 1996 and 2010 and that the major variable was bullpen and bench strength and depth. This was not entirely the case – between 2004 and 2008 was rather shaky. It was clear that the bullpen and bench depth were not the worst shortcomings of the 2004-2005 teams.

Associated Press photo of Rivera

Looks like I’m going to miss out on the Rafael Soriano conference call. I only get so many weeks off each year, and I have to take one of those weeks in the first three months, so I’m going to spend the next week skiing with a few friends in Colorado. While I’m gone, I’m sure Sam and Brian will hold down the fort.

Things to watch for next week:

1. Rafael Soriano becoming official. I have to think the physical will be finished and the signing complete in the next few days. That’s going to be an interesting conversation with Brian Cashman.

2. Andruw Jones pursuit continues. All indications are that the Yankees are making a push for Jones to be their fourth outfielder. At this point in the offseason, it wouldn’t be surprising for Jones to pick a destination any day now.

3. Andy Pettitte news, maybe. Every day brings the possibility of some sort of final decision from Pettitte. Maybe it will happen this week. Maybe it won’t happen until the middle of the season. Maybe Pettitte will simply fade away with no official announcement.

4. Added rotation depth. I have no idea how close the Yankees are to signing one of the many risk-reward starters on the market, but given the current rotation, signing someone like Justin Duchscherer would make some sense.

5. Spring training invitations. Two years ago, the Yankees announced their non-roster invitees on January 14. Last year, they didn’t make that announcement until February. It might happen this week. It might not.

A few Sunday night notes and links…

• Bill Madden reports that the Yankees have some concerns about Rafael Soriano’s attitude, but the team decided to move forward with the signing anyway. This isn’t the first time Soriano’s makeup has been questioned, but Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey told the Daily News that Soriano ultimately overcame a bad first impression to fit in really well in Tampa Bay. “I wish we were the ones signed up for three more years with him,” Hickey said.

• Russell Martin, who’s from Canada, was reportedly offered equal money to play for the Blue Jays, but chose the Yankees because he saw it as a better chance to win.

• The Athletics are reportedly closer to a deal with Brian Fuentes, a move that would further solidify a strong bullpen behind a good, young rotation.

• The Pirates have signed former Yankees reliever Jose Veras to a minor league deal.

• Josh Hamilton is out of the hospital after being treated for pneumonia.

• The organs of Christina Taylor Green — Dallas Green’s granddaughter who was killed in the Arizona shootings – were used to save the life of a young girl living in Boston.

• I goofed up yesterday. Maybe it was my Missouri bias coming out of me, but I accidentally listed Shaeffer Hall as coming out of Florida State when he actually went to Kansas. Embarrassing as it is, I honestly believe I saw Florida State League on Hall’s milb.com page and somehow got Florida State stuck in my head. Not good, and I really do apologize. I apparently greatly offended one reader who emailed me calling for a correction and a recall of my mistake about “Schaeffer” Hall. See, mistakes are easy to make. I’m sorry about mine.

Unable to address their rotation needs, the Yankees have instead built what should be one of the better bullpens in baseball. Of their three major league additions this offseason, two have been relievers. They’ve also locked up two more years with the game’s greatest closer.

In the big leagues
Whether you like the Rafael Soriano deal or not, it clearly gives the Yankees one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. They have two legitimate closers, the Hall of Famer, Mariano Rivera, and the new guy Soriano, who could step in should Rivera actually begin to show his age. Joba Chamberlain and Dave Robertson give the Yankees two young right-handers, while Pedro Feliciano and Boone Logan give them two legitimate lefties. As long as everyone stays healthy, the last spot in the bullpen will likely go to a long reliever, probably Sergio Mitre as long as he’s not needed in the rotation. The wild card here is Mark Prior, the former elite young starter trying to make his way back to the big leagues after a series of injuries.

On the verge
The Yankees have proven that a pitcher on the verge of helping the big league bullpen doesn’t necessarily have to pitch out of a minor league bullpen. There’s a solid chance at least one of the minor league starters will play some sort of bullpen role this season. Just last year, Ivan Nova made his first big league appearance out of the pen. There has always been some outside-the-organization talk of Andrew Brackman’s potential as a reliever. The same could be said for Graham Stoneburner and Shaeffer Hall, each of whom is expected to be in the Double-A rotation this year. For now, though, all of those pitchers will continue to develop as starters. The Yankees will keep them there until development or need forces a change.

Of the young pitchers actually expected to pitch as minor league relievers this season, right-hander Ryan Pope, lefty Steve Garrison and newly acquired Brian Schlitter are the only ones on the 40-man. Early call-ups will be wide open now that Mark Melancon and Jonathan Albaladejo are out of the organization, and those three would certainly be the easiest to move to New York. Assuming they open the season in Scranton, minor league signees Prior and Neal Cotts could also be in the call-up mix. It might be a long shot, but if Brian Anderson, a converted outfielder, can continue to make strides as a pitcher, he could build some level of prospect buzz as a potential major league reliever. He throws pretty hard and had some short-term success last season despite having not pitched in years.

Deep in the system
The top low-level pitching prospects usually develop as starters — regardless of long-term plans — but the Yankees actually have some notable young pitchers already working as relievers in the lowest levels. The stats that stand out come from three college kids taken in last year’s draft.

Tommy Kahnle was the Yankees fifth-round pick — the highest pitcher they took in the draft — and he allowed just three hits while striking out 25 through 16 innings in Staten Island. Chris Whitley (15th round) allowed a .157 opponents batting average and had 44 strikeouts in Staten Island before finishing the season with High-A Tampa. Preston Claiborne (17th round) also skipped straight to Tampa after a 1.18 WHIP with 30 strikeouts in Staten Island. All three could skip Charleston completely to open in Tampa this season, probably depending on how they do in spring training. The wild card here might be Conor Mullee, a 2010 draftee who moved from shortstop to the mound and put up good numbers in the Gulf Coast League.

Organizational depth chart
My own rough guess. It’s far too early for the Yankees to settle on who will be where next season.
New York: Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, Dave Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, Boone Logan, Sergio Mitre
Scranton/WB: Ryan Pope, Brian Schlitter, Mark Prior, Brian Anderson, Eric Wordekemper, Neal Cotts, Andy Sisco
Trenton: Craig Heyer, Pat Venditte, Adam Olbrychowski, Josh Schmidt, Noel Castillo, Steve Garrison, Wilkins Arias
Tampa: Tommy Kahnle, Scottie Allen, Benjamin Watkins, Ryan Flannery, Francisco Gil, Ronny Marte, Ryan Acosta
Charleston: Preston Claiborne, Chris Whitley, Conor Mullee, Danny Burawa, Kramer Sneed, Manny Barreda, Juan Marcado, Brett Gerritse

If things go to plan, the Yankees seem to have no room for either of their Rule 5 draft picks, Daniel Turpen or Robert Fish. Things also don’t look good for Romulo Sanchez, the hard-throwing right-hander who’s out of options but could make a run at beating Mitre for the long-reliever spot.

In the minor leagues, George Kontos will surely fit somewhere — probably in Scranton — if he doesn’t stick as a Rule 5 pick with the Padres. There are always more relievers than there are spots heading into spring training, and guys like Buddy Carlyle, Kevin Whelan, J.B. Cox and Phil Bartleski should also be in the running for relief spots in Double-A and Triple-A.

Figuring out lower-level bullpens is tricky to say the least. A lot of my predictions are only mildly educated guesses. Some of those assignments will ultimately be determined by spring training performance. Right now, it’s hard to know which of the 2010 college draftees will skip Charleston to open in Tampa and which of the high school draftees will be ready for a full-season assignment instead of a trip to extended spring training. It’s also hard to know what the plans are for new addition Scottie Allen — who came over in the Juan Miranda trade and has worked as both a starter and a reliever — and it’s hard to know what the Yankees will do with young guys coming back from injuries (Manny Barreda, Caleb Cotham, Gavin Brooks, Brandon Braboy, etc.).

Associated Press photo of Rivera, headshots of Robertson, Pope and Claiborne

The Yankees have been consistently linked to only a few free agents this offseason.

Cliff Lee, obviously. Russell Martin, who was the subject of heavy rumors leading into the Winter Meetings. Pedro Feliciano, who’s name was first mentioned way back in mid-November. Rafael Soriano, who Jon Heyman consistently said was in the mix despite Brian Cashman’s comments to the contrary. And now, Andruw Jones.

Today, the Yankees and Jones are once again connected in a Heyman tweet saying the Yankees have stepped up their pursuit of the power-hitting corner outfielder. It’s been almost two weeks since Jones was first mentioned in connection to the Yankees, and the interest has been steady ever since.

This winter, there was some early Justin Upton trade speculation. Bill Hall’s name came up once or twice. Jerry Hairston was mentioned at one point. Johnny Damon has been loosely linked to the team. Several risk-reward starting pitchers — Justin Duchscherer, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia — have floated occasionally onto the radar.

Several names have come and gone, but with the exception of Lee, the Yankees have landed everyone who seems to have landed on the radar and stayed there. Right now, no one is being more consistently linked to the Yankees than Jones.

When I began sorting through Pinch Hitter submissions, one of the things I looked for was fresh perspective. Sam, Brian and I can analyze the Yankees offseason from a reporter’s point of view, but we’re never going to see this team the way a fan sees it. Not every fan will agree with Justin’s morning post, but I’m betting quite a few thought he was spot on.

I happen to disagree with him — and I told Justin as much in an email — but that’s kind of the point of this series: It’s nice to have a different voice and a different opinion on the blog.

That said, here’s why I disagree: Because Brian Cashman and the Yankees front office have a job to do, and they can’t afford to be as reactionary as a fan might be.

Just like any job, running the Yankees comes with its good days and bad days. A bad day at work isn’t fixed by some sort of drastic, snap decision. A bad day is fixed by swallowing hard, taking the hit and figuring out the next logical step. In the work place, patience really is a virtue.

Being a Yankees fan is not a job, it’s an experience, and its bad days require instant reaction. Every move and non-move is debated, and even 19-year-old prospects who are four years from the big leagues are constantly discussed and evaluated by the fan base. Patience has no place in the fan experience. The fan experience is constant, and days without news are … well … boring. And when those boring days come after the bad days, there is frustration.

The fan base might feel comforted to hear an outburst from the front office — something to let everyone know that “the powers that be” feel the same frustration — but that sort of bluster simply doesn’t fit the personality of the people now at the top of the Yankees front office. They’re calculating. They take the hit and silently try to find the next move that makes sense. It’s silly to suggest that makes them less committed to winning.

Reactionary decisions — and Rafael Soriano might have been one — tend to come with risk, and even Justin — who clearly wants an aggressive approach — was frustrated by the end result of that particular aggressive move. It’s easy to scream at the top of your lungs, demanding that the Yankees sign the best remaining free agent on the market, but the reality doesn’t always match the fantasy. Free agents cost more than you might expect, and trades don’t work out exactly the way you draw them up. That’s why, even after the bad days, it’s important to wait for a move that makes sense.

Patience is a frustrating thing for a fan base, but it’s essential for a front office.

Leading off our Pinch Hitters series is Justin Johansky, an Iona College graduate who was born and raised in New Jersey and currently lives in Bloomfield. He’s been attending Yankees games since 1989 and has collected every yearbook since. “I learned to eat, sleep, and breathe Yankees from my father, who has a Yankee tattoo with the #7 by it for Mickey Mantle,” Justin wrote. His favorite Yankees memory is being at the last game at the old Yankee Stadium with his father and brother, and for his guest post, Justin looked back to the days of the old stadium and The Boss.

Justin wrote an open letter to Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankees front office asking for a more aggressive approach to the offseason.

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Dear Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office of the New York Yankee Organization,

I hope this letter finds you all as well rested as you should be considering this off season, you haven’t done very much. I write to you as a lifelong, diehard Yankee fan who finds himself becoming more and more frustrated with this part of the organization. I’m 28 years old (and no I’m not one of those fans who just started following the team in ’96. I sat through the Tim Leary’s, Hensley Meulen’s, and Bob Geren’s of the world) and for my entire life the Yankees had been run by one man: George Steinbrenner.

When George was calling the shots he always took the time to assure us, the fans, that the organization would stop at nothing in order to bring home a world championship. But now that he’s gone, I don’t get that same feeling or sense of security from you and the other “powers that be” in the front office. No one is to blame for Cliff Lee’s heart being bigger than his brain, but can you imagine what The Boss would have said (especially to you) for not being able to reel in the biggest fish of the offseason? He would have been absolutely livid but would have immediately gone on record to assure us, the fans, that the organization was still going to go out and do whatever it took to bring home number 28.

Instead, we get quotes from you about other possible free agents like “the price is too high,” or “he’s not in our price range,” or were only interested if we can sign him “absurdly cheap.” If that’s going to be your attitude, maybe a diehard fan like myself, who goes to about a dozen or so games a year, will decide this season I can’t go because its’ “not in MY price range,” or only if I can get tickets for “absurdly cheap.” You draw over four million fans a year. You charge ridiculous prices for tickets, concessions, and my new favorite, $35 for parking. Not only do I watch all 162-plus games, I follow the team 365 days a year (366 if it’s a leap year) so last week when you said “I won’t lose our No. 1 draft pick for anyone else,” in regards to signing Rafael Soriano, I was a little miffed to say the least.

Then, just a week later, it was announced that you signed Soriano to a three-year, $35-million contract and that the organization was split on this decision. Clearly you were not the one that wanted to make this deal, which is great because this shows that the entire front office is on the same page (insert sarcasm here). At this point in the offseason, signing Soriano makes sense for the team, but when you look at it financially, this deal is beyond ridiculous. Your history of signing quality arms for the bullpen is not one of your strong points by any stretch of the imagination. Need I remind you, you once gave Kyle Farnsworth a three-year, $17-million contract and had no problem giving Yankee legend LaTroy Hawkins almost $4 million. Then after signing the “Nightmare on 161st Street,” Chan Ho Park you actually said “I thought there was some real value there.”

One would think that coming off of last years horrendous offseason, (The Nick Johnson/Javy Vazquez Reunion Tour) you would want to redeem yourself. Kerry Wood and Bobby Jenks could have been signed cheaper than Soriano, but I guess “the price was too high.” You backed the Yankees into a corner this offseason with your plan of “patience,” and it’s quite obvious that not everyone in the front office is on board with it. Can you blame them? Teams such as Boston and even Baltimore improved tremendously this offseason while you sit and pray that Andy Pettitte returns and debate whether or not to sign Bartolo Colon. Yes, Bartolo Colon.

If you want to play moneyball like your idol Billy Beane then be my guest, but you can take it some place else like Kansas City, where losing is as natural as breathing. This is the Bronx, home of the 27-time World Champions and the greatest fans in the world. We don’t want to hear that “the price is too high” on anything, especially for what we pay to come to the ballpark.

By the way, ask “Billy Boy” how many world titles he won with moneyball. It’s time for your feet to get held to the fire here, Brian, as well as the rest of the front office. I ask for someone to remove Hank’s muzzle because we sure as hell will not get any assurance from Hal that the organization will stop at nothing to win championship number 28. A seahorse has more personality than Hal Steinbrenner.

More than willing to lead the charge to have you removed as General Manager and give the entire front office a kick in the pants,

Justin Johansky

Reports of a divided Yankees front office continue to surface in the wake of the Rafael Soriano signing. It might not be a huge issue — baseball people disagree all the time — and it should come as no surprise that the people in charge of the money ultimately have the ability to spend it as they see fit. Brian Cashman might have disagreed, but he reportedly didn’t try to stand in the way when it became clear that ownership wanted to make the move, and Cashman reportedly still has the “full backing” of the Steinbrenners.

Frankly, from the very beginning, the Soriano signing never seemed like a Cashman signing. It goes against his bullpen strategy of the past three years, and it goes against his public comments of the previous week. But in the end, this is not his team, and if ownership wants to make a move, ownership can make a move.

Some other notes and links:

• Of course, good perspective on the Soriano situation comes from Tyler Kepner, who writes that at some point — probably when the signing becomes official — Cashman will have to address the perception of an organizational split, as well as the perception that he wasn’t honest when he said the Yankees would not sacrifice a first-round pick this winter. Kepner also calls the Soriano signing “a clear indictment of (Joba) Chamberlain.”

• Just a few words of my own on Chamberlain: Cashman seems to believe Chamberlain can once again be a reliable and possibly dominant reliever. Cashman seems to like Chamberlain in that spot. It seems to be ownership — and the fan base — that’s not so convinced.

• Speaking of Chamberlain, today the New York Post quoted a talent evaluator who said Chamberlain has value on the trade market but, “in the past two years his stuff has gone backwards.” The source said that there are still “some people” who believe Chamberlain can be a Major League starter.

• In a mailbag, Padres beat writer Corey Brock reports that San Diego is not expected to pursue former Yankees utility man Jerry Hairston Jr. Brock guesses that Hairston will get roughly $2 million on the free agent market.

• The A’s are reportedly in the running for Brian Fuentes. This news comes just one day after they agreed to terms with Grant Balfour. Oakland already has a very good young rotation, and it’s added some solid pieces to its weak lineup, now the A’s seem to be focused on building an awfully good bullpen leading up to young closer Andrew Bailey.

Associated Press photo of Cashman

At this week’s NCAA Convention in San Antonio, Yankees manager Joe Girardi was one of six recipients of the Silver Anniversary Award, presented to “individuals of merit” 25 years after their college graduation.

Girardi was a three-time all-Big 10 catcher at Northwestern, where he was also a three-time academic all-American and in 1985 was named third team all-America. In 1997, Girardi was inducted into Northwestern’s Hall of Fame, and he still closely follows the school’s athletic program, giving the Yankee beat writers occasional unprompted updates on the status of the program.

Leading up to this weeks award, a writer named Hunter Atkins wrote a wonderful piece about Girardi for The Daily Northwestern. It touches on Girardi’s Major League career as a player and manager, but mostly looks into his life leading to the big leagues.

“The interesting things you remember when you’re done playing are the relationships,” Girardi said. “I don’t remember games, I remember people.”

Make some time this weekend to read that story. It’s a really nice read and an interesting look into Girardi’s life.

Girardi photo taken from the Northwestern website

There is perhaps no higher commodity in baseball than a young starting pitcher. As the Yankees have discovered this winter, finding a reliable starter on the trade market is difficult and costly, and the free agent market is no sure thing. The bad news for the Yankees is that the back of their big league rotation is still unsettled. The good news is that there are a lot of legitimate pitching prospects nearly ready for the show.

In the big leagues
The Yankees have their ace in CC Sabathia. They have their young gun in Phil Hughes. They have their erratic talent in A.J. Burnett. Beyond that, the Yankees have high-hopes for Ivan Nova and a whole lot of praying for rain. For now, Sergio Mitre seems to be the top in-house option to round out the rotation, but that will almost certainly change — in one way or another — between now and spring training. There is still hope that Andy Pettitte will come back, and if he doesn’t, the free agent market still offers a handful of risk-reward pitchers coming back from injury, plus a few veterans looking for some sort of resurgence. The Yankees top pitching target went elsewhere, and now they’ll have to build a rotation with the pieces that are left.

On the verge
At this point, Nova seems nearly locked into a big league rotation spot, but the Triple-A rotation could still have five legitimate prospects, headlined by Hector Noesi and Andrew Brackman, each of whom is on the 40-man, possibly leaving them in line for early promotions should the Yankees need an additional starter. D.J. Mitchell and David Phelps are also in line to open in Triple-A after finishing last season at that level. Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos — considered, along with Brackman, to be the top pitching prospects in the system, affectionately known as the Killer Bs — will likely return to Double-A, but they could move quickly.

Adam Warren, Gordon Stoneburner and Shaeffer Hall are also legitimate rotation prospects who would be far more prominent in most systems but fall somewhat into the shadows because of the Yankees upper-level depth. Warren in the most advanced of those three, having made 10 Double-A starts, but Stoneburner might be generating the most buzz after a 2.41 ERA between Low-A and High-A last season. Hall is a lefty out of Florida State, and the Yankees are willing to push him aggressively.

Deep in the system
The bulk of the Yankees rotation prospects are actually in the upper levels of the system, having already cleared several minor league hurdles. That’s one of the most impressive things about the system as a whole. In the lowest levels, there are three names that stand out: Brett Marshall, Jose Ramirez and Bryan Mitchell. Back from Tommy John surgery, Marshall had a 2.50 ERA and a .199 opponents batting average in Charleston last season. Ramirez put himself firmly on the map in 2009 with a terrific first season in the States.  He followed that with a 3.60 ERA and 105 strikeouts last season in Charleston. Mitchell is the  youngest of this trio, and he pitched well in the short-season leagues in his first taste of pro ball. He was a 16th-round pick in 2009, falling only because of signability issues. He’s considered a front-line talent.

As a rule, I’m hesitant to get too caught up in players at the Class A level — pitchers especially — because they have so far to go, but those three standout as names to know and follow right now. Other names to keep tucked away: Jairo Heredia (talent slowed by health and conditioning issues), Gabe Encinas (the top starter taken in last year’s draft) and Sean Black (seventh-round pick in ’09 had a 3.88 ERA in Charleston and made two Tampa starts last season).

Organizational depth chart
My own rough guess. It’s far too early for the Yankees to settle on who will be where next season.
New York: CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and a free agent
Scranton/WB: Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, David Phelps, D.J. Mitchell and Lance Pendleton
Trenton: Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, Graham Stoneburner, Shaeffer Hall
Tampa: Jose Ramirez, Brett Marshall, Sean Black, Jairo Heredia, Josh Romanski
Charleston: Bryan Mitchell, Shane Greene, Michael O’Brien, Nik Turley, Zachary Varce

Even this late into the offseason, the big league rotation remains a work in progress. As for who gets the first call beyond those top five, that’s also up in the air. There should be enough talent in Scranton to build a legitimate competition for any spot-starter needs that pop up during the season.

For now, I’ve projected a Scranton rotation that includes Pendleton, a Rule 5 pick currently hoping to win a spot in the Astros rotation. Minor league signee Andy Sisco could also work as a Triple-A starter, as could Kei Igawa if necessary. When he’s ready to come back from surgery, Jeremy Bleich could rejoin the Trenton rotation. He made eight starts there last season. Craig Heyer, who was sent to the Arizona Fall League and has worked as both a starter and reliever, could fit into the Trenton rotation at some point, especially if Pendleton sticks with Houston. As for the lower levels, those rotations are more difficult for me to predict, and some of those assignments might be based on what these pitches show in spring training.

Associated Press photo of Hughes, headshots of Sabathia, Brackman and Marshall

When the Rafael Soriano signing becomes official, the Yankees will surrender their first-round pick in the 2011 draft. It’s part of the cost for a Type-A free agent. History has shown, though, that neither a multi-year relief contract nor a first-round pick comes with consistent success.

These are the Yankees multi-year relief contracts from the past decade. Obviously I’m just dealing with middle relievers and not closers. For the Yankees, the hope is that Soriano’s lengthy track record will carry over and make him one of the few bright spots on this list.

Steve Karsay – December 2001, four years, $22.25 million
Hampered by injury, pitched 101 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 1.347 WHIP. Released in the final year of the contract.

Chris Hammond – December 2002, two years, $4.6 million
Pitched 63 innings with a 2.86 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in the first year. Traded for the start of the season year for two career minor leaguers.

Tom Gordon — December 2003, two years, $7.25 million
Pitched 170.1 innings with a 2.38 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. When his contract ended, Gordon signed with the Phillies and became their closer for a year.

Paul Quantrill — December 2003, two years, $6.8 million
Pitched 127.1 innings with a 5.23 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Led the AL in games pitched in the first year and was traded to San Diego in the middle of the second.

Felix Heredia – December 2003, two years, $3.8 million
Pitched 38.2 innings with a 6.28 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, all in the first year of the contract. Traded to the Mets before the start of the second year.

Kyle Farnsworth – November 2005, three years, $17 million
Pitched 170.1 innings with a 4.33 ERA and 1.39 WHIP before being traded in the middle of the final year of his contract.

Mike Myers – December 2005, two years, $2.4 million
Lefty specialist was ultimately released in the second year of the deal.

Damaso Marte — November 2008, three years, $12 million
First two years, pitched 31 innings with a 6.39 ERA. Likely to miss all of the final year of his contract.

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The Yankees past 15 first-round picks have been incredibly hit or miss. The mistakes never made it to the big leagues, but the ceiling is far higher than any of the relief pitchers mentioned above. Also worth considering is the trade value of these players when they’re moved early. C.J. Henry has never played at the big league level, but he did help the Yankees get Bobby Abreu.

OF Shea Morenz – 1995, 27th overall
Former football player at the University of Texas, traded to the Padres in 2008 for reliever Jim Bruske.

LHP Eric Milton – 1996, 20th overall
One-time Major League all-star had an 11-year big league career, none of it with the Yankees. They traded him to the Twins in the Chuck Knoblauch deal.

OF Tyrell Godwin – 1997, 24th overall
Didn’t sign. Eventually drafted again by the Blue Jays in the third round of 2001. Total of three big league at-bats.

OF Andy Brown – 1998, 24th overall
Never advanced beyond Double-A. Hit just .228/.309/.407 in his minor league career.

RHP Dave Walling — 1999, 27th overall
Career lasted just three full seasons before he walked away from the game after reaching Triple-A. Had a career ERA of 4.10 in the minors.

C Dave Parrish – 2000, 28th overall
Career .243/.323/.354 hitter in the minor leagues. Never got to the majors.

OF John-Ford Griffin – 2001, 23rd overall
Thirteen games of Major League experience. Career .267/.347/.457 hitter in the minor leagues.

3B Eric Duncan – 2003, 27th overall
Moved quickly in his first few years but has so far topped out in Triple-A. Became a part-time player through parts of his final season in the Yankees system.

RHP Phil Hughes — 2004, 23rd overall
Became an all-star in his first full season as a Major League starter.

SS C.J. Henry — 2005, 17th overall
Traded to the Phillies for Bobby Abreu. Has since quit baseball to play college basketball.

RHP Ian Kennedy -- 2006, 26th overall
Got to New York in his first full season as a pro, but struggled when given a rotation job the next year. Ultimately traded to Arizona where he had a 3.80 ERA last season.

RHP Andrew Brackman – 2007, 30th overall
Had a 3.01 ERA in 2010, his second year back from Tommy John surgery. Considered one of the top three pitching prospects in the system.

RHP Gerrit Cole — 2008, 28th overall
Known to be a signing risk, Cole chose to attend UCLA rather than pitch for the Yankees.

CF Slade Heathcott – 2009, 29th overall
A compensation pick because the Yankees failed to sign Cole the year before. Hit .258/.359/.352 in his first full season as a pro.

SS Cito Culver – 2010, 32nd overall
Teenager is likely to open this season in extended spring training.

Associated Press photos of Marte and Hughes