Spring decision: Leadoff hitter
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Feb 10, 2011 
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In his second season as Yankees manager, Joe Girardi made a change at the top of the order. He swapped Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon, moving Jeter into the leadoff spot and dropping Damon to No. 2. It wasn’t an entirely new concept — Jeter had been a leadoff man before — but it was bold, and when Jeter responded with a near-MVP season, it seemed only natural that he’d return to the role in 2010. Now that Jeter is coming off the worst season of his career, a return to the No. 1 spot is up for debate.
The possibilities
Curtis Granderson was a leadoff man in Detroit, but he didn’t get a single start in the leadoff spot last season. Robinson Cano is coming of a .381 on-base percentage, but his bat is better suited for the middle of the order. Ultimately, the top-of-the-lineup decision seems to be between the incumbent Jeter and the upstart Brett Gardner.
The easy choice
There’s nothing easier than sticking with The Captain. He’s one year removed from a .334/.406/.465 season, and that slash line would look awfully good in the leadoff spot. Jeter worked with Kevin Long this winter, trying to quiet this swing and rebound from the worst season of his career. Whether it will work is anyone’s guess, but Jeter has a Hall of Fame track record, and he might very well be given the benefit of the doubt. Spring training numbers don’t often mean much, but if Jeter is productive this spring, it could be enough to earn a return to the leadoff spot (at the beginning of the season, anyway).
The alternatives
Gardner was unusually patient hitter last season. Almost uniquely patient. Even when he struggled through a wrist injury in the second half — an injury that certainly contributed to his sudden inability to hit for average — Gardner still carried a solid .364 on-base percentage after the all-star break. When healthy, he reached base nearly 40 percent of the time. That ability to consistently reach first base — and run when he gets there — seems to make Gardner an ideal leadoff hitter, but his track record is slim. Gardner had one good season. Jeter had one bad one. Is that enough to swap places in the lineup?
Another option might be a platoon situation at the top of the order. Gardner’s platoon splits are not especially pronounced — especially in terms of on-base percentage — but Jeter’s splits are significant. Even in his worst season, Jeter still hit .321/.393/.481 against left-handers last year. The Yankees could use Gardner at the top of the lineup against right-handed starters, and keep Jeter in the top spot against lefties.
A separate but related issue
If one season is enough to prompt a change in the leadoff spot, might is also be enough to prompt a change at No. 3? Last season, Cano was an MVP candidate while Mark Teixeira was productive but not quite his old self. Will Teixeira’s previous track record of consistency be enough to keep the middle of the lineup unchanged? The Yankees must also decide what to do with Nick Swisher, who opened last season as the No. 8 hitter and finished as the No. 2. Is he best suited in a run-producing spot (No. 6 maybe) or should he return to the No. 2?
Associated Press photos
I’d go with the platoon split. Jeter leads off vs lefties, Gardner vs righties.
i like the platoo and i like cano in the 3 slot
allow me to make the first of thousands of lineups in list form:
gardner/jeter
jeter/gardner
cano
arod
tex
po
swish
granderson
martin
Personally, I think Gardner should lead off and Cano should hit 3rd and there shouldn’t be any discussion about it.
But there are ego’s involved here and this won’t happen.
Jeter will be given the lead off spot and Tex will be hitting 3rd. Girardi won’t rock the boat until the boat is sinking.
If the offense struggles and you can point to their numbers for the struggles, then maybe in June a change will be made.
But Jeter and Tex will be given at least 2-3 months to hold the jobs down. If by then they are ill suited for the roles, I expect something to happen.
Ideally, this should be the lineup vs RHP
Gardner
Jeter
Cano
Arod
Tex
Swisher
Granderson
Posada
Martin
But it’s going to look more like this vs RHP
Jeter
Swisher
Texieria
Arod
Cano
Granderson
Posada
Martin
Gardner
Against righties…
Gardner
Granderson
Cano
ARod
Tex
Swisher
Posada
Martin
Jeter
Against lefties…
Jeter
Swisher
Cano
ARod
Tex
Posada
Jones
Martin
Granderson/Gardner
That’s what I’d do…
Presuming Jeter’s hitting stance adjustments pay off with a 320-330 BA, I’d go:
Gardner
Cano
Jeter
ARod
Tex
Posada
Swisher
Granderson
Martin
Hitting Jeter third might seem out of left field (pun intended), but I think he would do very well there. And getting Gardner and Cano as many ABs as possible makes sense because of the high OBP and impact they can have.
…in a perfect world where egos don’t matter.
I also like the idea of hitting Jeter third to offer him a new challenge and shake him up. He has always risen to these changes before, and I think he would do so again.
Platoon Gardner with Jeter for leadoff and leave Cano in the 5th hole. Tex will bounce back.
I can see Guess the Line Up is in for a lot of fun this year.
Cano should hit 3rd…..he’s their best hitter
Bojo,
I agree on The Kinks. The most brilliant lyrics ever.
I like the idea of the platoon split of jeter vs. lefties and Gardner vs. righties in the leadoff spot. The only thing I hope they don’t do as much is sit Gardner when they’re facing a lefty. I don’t know his numbers but he was always much more patient than whoever they replaced him with. If he can see 5 pitches and gets 3 AB then that’s 15 pitches off the opposing pitchers pitch count, whether he gets on base or not. It makes sense in my head at least.
Gardner is a very smart hitter and still learning the league. He can hit lefties and will improve in doing so as he gets more exposure to the various pitrchers in the league. 2 of his longest homers were off lefties last year.
So I start Gardy at lead-off all year long…Let him settle in.
I would love to see Robbie hit 3rd, but I doubt it will happen and I have no problems whatsoever with him hitting 5th. After all, he did OK in that spot last year.
As far as leadoff, I agree that it should be a platoon between Gardner and Jeter.
austinmac February 10th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Bojo,
I agree on The Kinks. The most brilliant lyrics ever.
++++++++++++
I’d put Eddie Vedder up there with Ray.
tyanksfan36 February 10th, 2011 at 4:49 pm
I like the idea of the platoon split of jeter vs. lefties and Gardner vs. righties in the leadoff spot. The only thing I hope they don?t do as much is sit Gardner when they?re facing a lefty.
***************************
I think at least part of the reason he started sitting so much was because of his wrist.
I want to see Gardner borrow Cashman’s wig this spring…
BoJo February 10th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
I want to see Gardner borrow Cashman?s wig this spring?
****************************
I wonder if Brett could do a mean impersonation of Cashman…
Tex should bat third, Cano should stay 5th. Tex for his career has a higher OBP.
This thread is kind of like an open window for “Guess the Lineup” Very cool.
This winter of our discontent has almost reached its conclusion.
Patrick–
I am not sure if OBP is how I would evaluate who should hit third. I think I would need to consider who drives in runs in April through May as one issue, and thus helps win games with ducks on the pond.
Tex has shown IMO that he is a waste in 3rd hole until June. He might draw walks but left too many big runs on base stranded.
Sorry, but, until proven otherwise, Jeter gets the benefit of the doubt. I’m not sure that gardner is so much patient at times as he is almost afraid to swing. Same thing with running. If Girardi doesn’t want him running, he’ll throw up a red light. Other than that Gardner should be running at every opportunity….regardless of score. The score has never stopped other teams from running.
I agree with G. Love.
Gardner should lead off. Jeter should bat 2nd and Cano should bat 3rd.
If you bat Gardner leadoff you give the team the chance to put up a lot of runs in the first inning without getting a hit. Gardner walk or hit, stolen base, Jeter sacrifice ground ball to the right side and Cano sac fly or grounder.
There should be no harm to Jeter’s ego if he bats 2nd. I think that he is actually better in the two hole than in the leadoff spot because of his ability to control the bat and move runners over.
Baseball players are human. They like routines. The Yankees have some moving parts with some older players, so you cannot trot the same lineup out there everyday, but you can have a lot more consistency with the lineup.
You could trot this lineup out there against lefties and righties and have a lot of success on most days:
Gardner
Jeter
Cano
A-Rod
Tex
Posada
Granderson
Swisher
Martin
Erin
Yeah that’s true. Maybe I’m just mad that they kept sitting him for Mr. “I Strike out on 3 pitches” Austin Kearns. It made me crazy.
Bojo,
OBP is the best way to evaluate who should hit in each spot in the lineup.
You want the guy with the higher OBP to bat higher and the guys with the higher slg to hit in the middle. Tex and A-rod are both so you put them 3 and 4, Cano is more of a high batting average, high slg kind of guy so batting 5th is pretty much optimal for him.
Gardner had one good season. Jeter had one bad one.
Such a beautiful line.
1. Gardy
2. Swish
3. Tex
4. Cano
5. Arod
6. Posada
7. Martin
8. Jeter
9. Granderson
Hate me if you must, but I love the idea of putting speed back to back, but not both at the top of the order… Also With Jeter there you get speed back to back to back. I originally had Martin and Posada swapped but I didn’t want Posada so close to the speed guys and he hasn’t proven himself yet, if he proves himself, I’d swap them.
Patrick-
Careerwise Tex’s OBP is very good, but last year Cano was the better hitter in both OBP and SLG. I’d bat Cano third until he shows last year was a fluke. I don’t think that will happen.
The leadoff hitter is Jeter’s to lose. When asked at his 1st media session next week, count on Girardi saying something similar and will want to see how his adjustments from working with Kevin Long are making some difference from last year.
Gardy should bat leadoff so he gets more PA’s. You can’t keep depriving him of 200 PA’s by batting him 9th. Jeter can bat 2nd, where he excels anyways.
I agree with Patrick.
BIG AL February 10th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
GB7 -
For all the talk by Randy L. that the Twins are so great in developing pitchers, Frankie Piliere has only one Twins pither in the top 100 prospects, strange don’t you think.
Frankie Piliere ranks the Yankees with the 4th best minor league system, perhaps those that hate Cashman should just re-think that position, since it was mostly Cash that turned the minor league system around.
Any thoughts?
———————————————————————————————————————-
AL, I don’t agree with Randy’s views on Cashman, but, that’s him. I see a couple of reasons why Randy views the Twins pitcher development the way he does. Part of it is that Randy is an old school baseball man and has a close relationship with the Cliburns. Another reason is that I see a lot of this is just Randy having fun…like his one year rant about Livan Hernandez…because it got people crazy and he likes talking.
As far as the Twins pitcher development, I can agree to a point. They have developed a lot of pitchers, but, their best three pitchers in the last 10 years have come from other organizations (Santana, Nathan and Liriano). They’ve also been more serious about developing pitchers than NYYs, mainlt because they had to. NYY either gave up their best young pitchers for quick fixes to keep the train running or because of draft position due to FA signings. Either way, I enjoy his stories and he’s pretty baseball smart, though I’d never tell him that. And then, he is fun to rag on. One last point…he is very old and I respect that he has reached a 3 digit age.
Jeter batting 3rd = triple play fears.
The Yankee lineup ought to shift pretty dramatically vs RHP and LHP, but it won’t happen. It’s just not the way the Yankees do things.
That’s one Hell of an exaggeration even for you, “depriving him of 200 PA’s”. If he stays healthy, he’ll get his at bats.
“You can’t keep depriving him of 200 PA’s by batting him 9th. Jeter can bat 2nd, where he excels anyways.”
Isn’t 162 the maximum BG can be deprived of batting ninth?
That’s one Hell of an exaggeration even for you, “depriving him of 200 PA’s”. If he stays healthy, he’ll get his at bats.
–
The 9th hitter on the Yankees had 150 less PA’s than the 1st hitter. Its not much of an exaggeration. Gardner in 150 PA’s could reach base 58 times. Thats 58 more chances for a guy to steal, 58 more opportunities to get driven in, and 58 more innings where the baton is passed.
Against LHP bat Jeter 1, Swisher 2; against RHP bat Gardner 1, Swisher 2 and Jeter second leadoff. But it won’t happen.
Isn’t 162 the maximum BG can be deprived of batting ninth?
–
That makes sense.
Jeter
Gardner
Cano
Rodriguez
Teixeira
Swisher
Granderson
Posada
Martin
Current Marcels projections plus a little fudging projects this at 5.5 runs per game.
Use CAIRO!
Jeter will hit 1 or 2. No way will he hit third. No power and he is not a rbi man.
Hopefully Tex will not be asleep in April, but I would not complain if Cano hits third and Tex hits fifth.
randy was using a statistical anomoly to skewer cashman, thats all, and he knew it.
but that has nothing to do with the pitching talent in thier farm.
randy’s thing was that the twins entire rotation made some crazy amount less than the yankees staff did and the made the playoffs. and he suggested (though he knew better) that that indicated that the twins were better at developing pitchers.
in fact it was because the twins went into last seaason with liriano coming off surgery (which was largely blamed on overuse) and pavano trying to restore his rep and they filled the rest of the rotation with solid but unspectacular arms from thier minor league system. it worked, but all the heavy lifting was done by pavano and liriano, thus negating his own argument about superior pitching development.
Gardner
Swisher
Cano
A-Rod
Teixeira
Granderson
Posada
Martin
Jeter
Thats what I would really like to do…
Granderson has too much power to be wasted as a leadoff man…….of all the position players, he’s the one I’m most excited about.
If Gardner hits at the bottom of the lineup he should hit ahead of Martin.
Martin is a patient hitter that has become basically a singles or a walk player the past 2.5 seasons.
With Martin being on first so much of the time he gets on base he is going to block Gardner from stealing. His patience will allow Gardner to steal. Finally, with Martin becoming so much of a singles hitter having Gardner in front of him and Gardy’s ability to get to 2B so often, it optimizes Martin’s singles.
i believe i read that there will be no CAIRO projections this year. anybody else hear that?
Cano is a better hitter than Tex and should be batting 3rd, but I doubt that will happen
If you consider play time, where Brett will at times be sat for match up reasons even if they are unwarranted, the PA disparity grows.
By putting your guys with good on bases at the top, you are generating more plate appearances for everyone behind them. The same can’t be said for putting a guy with a sub-par OBP at the top, because every out they make is reducing the chances for the guys behind him.
K. Long working with Jeter should help him, which is why I think batting 2nd would not be any kind of shame since he grew in that role and has flipped between 1st and 2nd in his career.
That makes sense LGY.
I expect the Captain will hit lead-off, at least for awhile. I also expect he’s going to have a much better season than last year, although not sure he’ll ever hit .330 or higher again….
If Tex is cold until June, like he was last year, it may not really matter who is batting lead-off.
150 isn’t 200. He’ll get his plate appearances if he starts more than 134 games. He has to earn the spot, and after just one year, he hasn’t yet.
Among Yankee regulars, only Granderson (.324) had a lower OBP than Jeter (.340) last year.
So, Girardi’s book should tell him to use anyone but those two at leadoff.
I’m concerned about Jeters propensity to hit into double plays, so I would not bat him second. I also want to make Jeter run, as he’s a smart baserunner. So I’ll make mine a bit creative:
Jeter
Gardner
Tex
ARod
Cano
Posada
Swisher
Granderson
Martin
It would really be a shame to move Swisher out of the 2 spot where he is just about perfect, so that vs RHP Jeter can claim it by seniority and paycheck amount.
http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/....._standings
Cano is a better hitter than Tex and should be batting 3rd, but I doubt that will happen
—
Is he?
Just reading the post made my head spin. I can’t imagine being in Girardi’s shoes and actually have to figure it out.
I would hope that he tries a few combinations during spring training, even if he ends up with the same old, same old.
Bronx Jeers -
Pretty funny you mentioned GTLU because I spent a little bit of time “warming up” this afternoon. But as far as lineups go, I’d rather keep track of ‘em than pick ‘em, so I never play GTLU!
Gardner should leadoff
Don’t waste that speed/OBP in the 9 hole.
150 isn’t 200.
–
No kidding, sorry for hyperbolizing a difference of 50 PAs. Its still a lot of PA to waste batting a player 9th. Especially one who when he does get up to the plate, generates more extra chances as almost anyone on the roster. Gardner played in the majors exactly as he played at every level in the minors. Its not a fluke. And the Yankees were just fine handing the leadoff spot to a 23 year old Jeter.
“Cano is a better hitter than Tex and should be batting 3rd, but I doubt that will happen
—
Is he?”
Cano was last year. I guess we’ll find out if he continues to be this year.
Gardner
Jeter
Cano
A-Rod
Tex
Granderson
Swisher
Posada
Martin
ok i stand corrected about CAIRO. there is some projection service that isnt going to publish this year.
I’m concerned about Jeters propensity to hit into double plays, so I would not bat him second. I also want to make Jeter run, as he’s a smart baserunner. So I’ll make mine a bit creative:
–
Jeter is going to hit into a double play regardless. There is no difference between Gardner-Jeter 9-1 than 1-2 or anything. The only thing you do by batting Jeter leadoff is removing the double play possibility in his first at bat, but you also take away plate appearances from a batter that excels at getting on base.
Jeter hit into 21, 24, 18, 22 GIDP the last 4 years. Moving him around isn’t going to change that. Best to optimize the lineup to get the other players better chances than try to avoid something that will happen regardless because he puts the ball on the ground all the time.
““Cano is a better hitter than Tex and should be batting 3rd, but I doubt that will happen
—
Is he?”
////
i think we can all assume he will be in april at least.
Tin Cup ( The Original Randy I ) was more right than wrong with his premise about the Twins developing pitchers, their cost and the club’s success not only under Ronnie G……I don’t care what division you play in because in acid test of time in the MLB as you don’t play .570 ball if you don’t have a quality organization…..For all the players they lose they just keep restocking the big club…….
From Face’s link:
Red Sox: 96.2
Yankees: 92.1
Rays: 87.9
Blue Jays: 77.2
Orioles: 76.9
Seems like a good projection as it stands now.
“i think we can all assume he will be in april at least.”
And in October…
“i believe i read that there will be no CAIRO projections this year. anybody else hear that?”
Probably not, unless Mubarek steps down soon.
Cano was last year. I guess we’ll find out if he continues to be this year.
—
Tex was better every other year.
Expecting Cano to have a higher OBP than Tex based on one year is kind of ridiculous when all the other evidence points to the opposite happening.
Yeah, I would agree with those CAIRO projections as well
LGY-
My gut tells me that CAIRO may be underrating the Rays’ kids, but who knows.
I really liked Jeter in the lead off spot due to his gidp issues. However, Gardner’s speed presents the perfect player to hit in front of Jeter thus limiting the gidp effect and utilizing Jeter’s abilities better to move players over. Also with teams worrying about Brett stealing, more of Jeter’s grounders might dribble through. If I were playing MLB The Show with this team I’d say:
Gardner (stays here even against lhp. i’ve learned never to doubt white lighting)
Jeter
Teix (Cano is the better hitter at this point, but Teixeira will see better pitches in the 3 hole)
Arod
Cano
Swisher
Posada
Granderson (prove to me that the end to last year was no fluke and he moves up)
Martin
What a ridiculously awesome lineup. I’ll take this over Boston’s any day.
“Expecting Cano to have a higher OBP than Tex based on one year is kind of ridiculous when all the other evidence points to the opposite happening.”
Except that Cano is three years younger and may have taken a step forward last year. That’s why I think we need to see what happens this year. But I’d give Cano the nod until he shows otherwise. I think he’s the more dynamic player.
“Is he?”
Yes
RMS February 10th, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Jeter will hit 1 or 2. No way will he hit third. No power and he is not a rbi man.
Hopefully Tex will not be asleep in April, but I would not complain if Cano hits third and Tex hits fifth
++++++++++++++++
I disagree.
We don’t know what effect his new stance and batting approach will have on his power. If he really is emulating Paul Molitor approach, he could be fine in generating 20 homers.
Also, Jeter is a very smart hitter who can adapt to the role of 3 spot hitting. Over his career, he has driven in 16% of all baserunners–compared to 19% for Pujols…18% for Tex…but DJ has had highs of 19% so he can do it as well as the big boys.
I might to a tick higher on the Rays projection, but looks accurate otherwise
Mario Cuomo been brought in to mediate a settlement between the Wilpons and other groups
BoJo, off of 2010 you are proposing to bat Jeter third? Are you daft, man?
Except that Cano is three years younger and may have taken a step forward last year. That’s why I think we need to see what happens this year. But I’d give Cano the nod until he shows otherwise. I think he’s the more dynamic player.
—
Tex is still in his prime and had a career low season, I doubt that happens again. If we are just looking at OBP/SLG Tex’s career averages = Cano’s best year. I think it’s kind of silly to expect Cano to outperform Tex on a regular basis.
Batting Jeter 3rd and the Eddie Vedder comment does put the ‘trade Montero for Gio Gonzales’ thing into a better perspective.
Girardi likes a percentage type of lineup when possible with the R-L-R-L and Swisher, Teixeira, and Posada being the switch hitters.
Actually batting Jeter 3rd wouldn’t be a bad idea, because lineup optimization suggests you don’t put your best hitter third because they come up with a ton of 2 out nobody on situations. Its actually best to put your greatest hitter 2nd.
Patrick,
Tex’s slash line for the last two years is .274/.374/.523/.897. Cano’s is .320/.366/.527/.893. I respect you to much to call your argument “silly”, but to me Tex’s slight edge at OBP is overwhelmed by Cano’s more dynamic BA.
I’d prefer Cano batting third.
Trevor Gretzky preparing for baseball draft. Should be fun to watch how that turns out. He’s a Yankee fan. if he’s half as good at baseball as the old man was in hockey, he’ll be special.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play......d=13108803
GB7 -
Thanks for your thoughts and input. I was kind of hoping Randy was out there, and he’d get rild up, and give us a good come back.
On a serious note, I am very happy with the job Cashman has done with turning the farm system into one of the best in baseball, and this should bode well for our future, since the projections for FA pitchers next year are slim. Let’s hope the FO don’t run scared, and trade them all away for a quick fix for this season.
Mario Cuomo been brought in to mediate a settlement between the Wilpons and other groups
—————————————————–
So that means no death penalty.
The Wilpons must be relieved.
Wave,
Higher BA helps for 4th and 5th hitters IMO. You want higher OBP in the 3 slot, which Tex has.
Face, there’s a logical fallacy in your 5:53 PM comment but I leave it to you to discover it.
Video of Rafael DePaula
http://vimeo.com/10406016
Any time, AL. Just don’t rile Randy up too much. age and heart, you know. Hate to see you be the cause of his demise.
Wave Your Hat February 10th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
BoJo, off of 2010 you are proposing to bat Jeter third? Are you daft, man?
++++++++++
Yes, and yes
I fully expect him to have a big bounce back year now that he is working with KLong. I also think he has plenty enough power and ability to drive in runs. He has hit over 20 3 times before (24 being the highest), and even has driven over 100 runs before. IN 1999, he hit 3rd 50 times and hit 395/462/950
He is a smart hitter…and can adapt. And by moving to third, he gives Gardner and Cano more ABs.
Patrick, over the last two years Tex has all of a .008 advantage in OBP. It is overwhelmed by the BA.
Wave,
2 year sample isn’t enough. You are including Tex’s worst season but not including several of his best seasons.
And I just said, a higher BA is better to have in the fourth and fifth spot because those are the guys that are driving in the most runs and higher BA = more runs because theoretically, guys will be on base and a walk won’t drive them in. So saying that Cano has a vastly higher BA just helps my argument, in my opinion.
Over the course of his career, Jeter has hit 3rd 573 PAs, with 339/411/868 . He only hit 9 homers with 66 RBI, but I think he can improve on that if he wished to do so.
As long as Jeter is healthy, there is not much I don’t think he can’t do when he puts his mind to it.
Face, there’s a logical fallacy in your 5:53 PM comment but I leave it to you to discover it.
–
Nooo just tell me.
BTW–Jeter’s numbers hitting third are actually better than any other spot for him…You can look it up.
GB7 -
Between you and me, I think Randy will bury more than be buried, lol. He seems to enjoy the in fighting, could have been one of your guys.
Given his age, it won’t be long before Guinness World Records comes knocking to put him in their book.
The Third Spot
The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma’am.
The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn’t nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.
If Trevor’s half as good as the old man I guess that puts him on pace for about 400 career HR’s.
Tex had 30 more PA’s than Cano with Men On last year.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c.....-lineup-by
Here is where I got this from, Wave
Patrick, there are plenty of good hitters behind the 5 spot in the Yankee lineup so I’m not convinced league norms count as much. I’d like to see somebody knocking in Gardner after he steals second, and not walking to leave it to ARod. JMO
Gotta run.
Face, the logical fallacy involved Jeter, not moving your best hitter to second. Which is interesting, but won’t happen anytime soon.
Nick in SF February 10th, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Batting Jeter 3rd and the Eddie Vedder comment does put the ‘trade Montero for Gio Gonzales’ thing into a better perspective.
++++++++++++++
Would you rather trade Eddie Vedder for Gio Gonzales? i could live with that.
Face,
I believe the fallacy that Wave was hinting at is that just because the 3rd spot may not be as important as the 5th spot doesn’t mean the Yankees should put Jeter there.
The 3rd spot is still important. Just maybe not as important as most believe.
Ok bat Jeter 10th
Jerkface February 10th, 2011 at 5:53 pm
Actually batting Jeter 3rd wouldn’t be a bad idea, because lineup optimization suggests you don’t put your best hitter third because they come up with a ton of 2 out nobody on situations. Its actually best to put your greatest hitter 2nd.
+++++++++++++
The movement has begun….(and I don’t mean bowels)
(but its not as much a logical fallacy if you think Jeter will bounce back
)
Bronx Jeers February 10th, 2011 at 6:04 pm
If Trevor’s half as good as the old man I guess that puts him on pace for about 400 career HR’s.
+++++++++++++++++++
And at least 90 assists per season.
It’s possible that Eddie Vedder’s best work was on the Neil Young record ‘Mirror Ball’.
Gardner
Cano
Tex
A-rod
Swisher
Granderson
Posada
Jeter
Martin
Hooray!
jerk, there are dozens of theories about how to build a lineup, in 140+ years it still hasnt been settled. your theory is a good one, so is the idea that the best hitter hits 3rd so he hits in the 1st every game (larussa is big on this one). and there are alot more of them. i dont dipute yours but you state it as if it is a proven fact.
i dont dipute yours but you state it as if it is a proven fact.
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If all the data from all the years of baseball says that the 2nd, 4th, and 5th hitters come up with more RISP/man on opportunities than the 3rd hitter, its not a fact?
Nick in SF February 10th, 2011 at 6:11 pm
It’s possible that Eddie Vedder’s best work was on the Neil Young record ‘Mirror Ball’.
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Rockin in the Free World is one of my favorites.
From everything I’ve heard and read about Wayne Gretzky was as good of a baseball player as he was a hockey player.
ok, jerk i concede that your ‘facts’ prove tony larussa, joe girardi, joe maddon, mike scoscia, joe torre, casey stengal, and hundreds of others wrong.
Jerkface February 10th, 2011 at 6:13 pm
i dont dipute yours but you state it as if it is a proven fact.
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If all the data from all the years of baseball says that the 2nd, 4th, and 5th hitters come up with more RISP/man on opportunities than the 3rd hitter, its not a fact?
________________________
Gives more credence to my line-up with Cano 2nd and Jeter 3rd.
I think it is hard sometimes for people to accept a radically different new idea, but if you really look at it, there may be some benefits to it. And resistance to change just for resistance sake always stagnates progress.
GreenBeret7 February 10th, 2011 at 6:18 pm
From everything I’ve heard and read about Wayne Gretzky was as good of a baseball player as he was a hockey player.
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Yes–I too recall he once considered trying out (for Yankees I think).
Cano in the 2 spot would be interesting. I would be cool with it.
Jeter in the 3 spot though would make me
ok, jerk i concede that your ‘facts’ prove tony larussa, joe girardi, joe maddon, mike scoscia, joe torre, casey stengal, and hundreds of others wrong.
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They’re not wrong, and first of all TLR? He bats the pitcher 6th or 8th or whatever sometimes. They are just sub-optimal. There can be a traditional accepted way of doing things, but it doesn’t mean its right. The Third Hitter still comes to the plate with men on base and chances to win a game, but it might not be the best use of resources when the 2nd and 4th guy has MORE chances. And the 2nd hitter is usually a light weight (not with the Yankees tho)
On elast point about Jeter batting 3rd. His best power spot traditionally has been 2nd when he has had a power bat hitting behind him…but to have ARod and Tex protecting him should give him much better pitches and more opportunity to drive the ball.
Nuff said.
Face….Keep in mind that Texeria is a switchhitter
If Jeter is not good enough to hit leadoff (at all or vs rhp), then it doesn’t make sense to just move him to the #2 spot. That’s just being afraid to really make a change.
I suspect he will start the season at leadoff, and if he is not hitting again after 2 or 3 months, he’ll be moved down to 7-9, at least vs rhp.
“One last point…he is very old and I respect that he has reached a 3 digit age.”
gb7-
i have a one digit answer for that
Face….Keep in mind that Texeria is a switchhitter
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What is this in regards to?
LGY February 10th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Cano in the 2 spot would be interesting. I would be cool with it.
Jeter in the 3 spot though would make me
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So as not to be rude, I’ll respond.
Is it his lifetime mark of 339/411/868 while hitting 3rd in 573 PAs? The best stats of his career when compared to hitting in any other slot….
BoJo February 10th, 2011 at 6:20 pm
GreenBeret7 February 10th, 2011 at 6:18 pm
From everything I’ve heard and read about Wayne Gretzky was as good of a baseball player as he was a hockey player.
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Yes–I too recall he once considered trying out (for Yankees I think).
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You have to figure that he had the strongest and fastest hands around.
Bojo
Jeter had power hitters behind him all last season with Swish and Granderson there. He SLG 465 in 2009 with Damon behind him.
I don’t think having a power bat behind him has anything to really do with it.
jerk its a theory, not proven fact, if it was proven fact, pujols, bonds, mantle, arod, ruth, dimaggio would have all batted 2nd.
personally i cant stand larussa. i put him there b/c the first ‘best hitter’ i thought of who didnt bat 2nd was pujols. i included stengal instead of tons of other 50′s-60′s managers b/c he batted mantle 3rd.
Is it his lifetime mark of 339/411/868 while hitting 3rd in 573 PAs? The best stats of his career when compared to hitting in any other slot….
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Does he only bat third when he is in the middle of historically good seasons and the real third hitter goes down?
jerk its a theory, not proven fact
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It is unequivocally not a theory to say that the third hitter on average comes up with less men on base than the 2 or 4 hitter. It is not a theory because someone actually went and calculated all those chances for all third hitters in baseball, etc.
The theory part comes in to what you do with this information, but we are told the best hitter should hit third. I want my best hitter getting the most RISP/men on chances. Ergo…
Jerkface February 10th, 2011 at 6:04 pm
The Third Spot
The old-school book says to put your best high-average hitter here. The lead-off hitter should already be in scoring position and a hit drives him in. Wham, bam, thank you ma’am.
The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn’t nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.
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Do these stats include NL lineups?
If so, then of course. The pitcher makes the last out often (8th guy gets walked). That sets up the #3 hitter to hit 3rd in the inning, so more often with no men on base.
Not so much in the AL, and especially not for the Yankees since the bottom of their lineup is usually better than most/all other teams.
randy l. February 10th, 2011 at 6:25 pm
“One last point…he is very old and I respect that he has reached a 3 digit age.”
gb7-
i have a one digit answer for that
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I’m shocked that your keepers at “The Home” would wake you up to respond.
Evening, Randy. Hope your golf game is as good as mine was back in the day. I was a killer on the links.
(In my case, I suppose that wasn’t the best way of putting that)
Ys Guy and others…
You all have to remember that lineup theories have changed over the years. The concept of OBP and passing the baton gained favor relatively recently. And truly, I don’t think maagers 20-30 years ago had the detailed statistical analysis to evaluate optimal line-up performance.
This is relatively a new science (using computers and analysis to rethink baseball strategy), so one can’t be afraid to challenge old guidelines and beliefs.
If so, then of course. The pitcher makes the last out often (8th guy gets walked). That sets up the #3 hitter to hit 3rd in the inning, so more often with no men on base.
Not so much in the AL, and especially not for the Yankees since the bottom of their lineup is usually better than most/all other teams.
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I agree it requires more analysis. Maybe the Yankees aren’t the “average” team, as they generally tend to have their on base guys near the top in staggered order. Maybe that changes things.
One thing with the third hitter is that there are 162 chances for the third hitter to come to the plate with no one on 2 outs that no other spot in baseball gets. The fourth hitter is always guaranteed to either come to the plate for the first time with men on or zero outs.
92 wins will probably be able to nab the wild card this year. Might need 93 or 94. I see 96 being able to win the East. As everyone will beat everyone up to a degree.
However the East plans to get fat on the Central and West and Interleague as usual.
“So as not to be rude, I’ll respond.
Is it his lifetime mark of 339/411/868 while hitting 3rd in 573 PAs? The best stats of his career when compared to hitting in any other slot….”
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Even granting the theory that somehow the planets aligned perfectly next year and Jeter could put up an 868 OPS in the 3 hole the Yankees could likely do better there with someone else.
In any event there is really not much weight to Jeter performing so much better in the 3 hole.
He only excelled there in one season. 2006 when in 99 PA’s he OPS’d over 1. The rest of the times in his career when he hit in the 3 hole he has sub 8 OPS.
i agree that lineup theory is in flux(as it always has been), but it is far from settled fact that the best hitter should hit second. obviously it has not been accepted by the vast majority of major league managers.
I’ll drop the Jeter in 3rd spot for now. I doubt that it will happen, even though I think it would be optimal.
I made my point and stated the reasons, and got respectful and thoughtful feedback for which I thank you all.
i agree that lineup theory is in flux(as it always has been), but it is far from settled fact that the best hitter should hit second. obviously it has not been accepted by the vast majority of major league managers.
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The 2 spot gets more PA than every other spot except leadoff, comes up with men on as often as the three spot, and also the bases empty more often than anyone (except leadoff I guess). Thats what the data says, its up to you to decide what to do with it. But it sounds like a place where we should put an important hitter.
The fourth spot comes up in the most important spots more often than any other spot, so it should be the teams best hitter including power. I like A-rod 4, Cano 2 for those reasons.
“The fourth hitter is always guaranteed to either come to the plate for the first time with men on or zero outs.”
What if one of the first three hitters hits a home run? Or a sac fly? Or an RBI hit and is then thrown out on the bases? Or…?
call girardi and tell him that you have facts to prove that he should bat arod 2nd.
What if one of the first three hitters hits a home run? Or a sac fly? Or an RBI hit and is then thrown out on the bases? Or…?
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Shut up Nick !
In agreeing with Jerkface about Cano batting 2nd, it also means to me that late in games, he has a greater chance to come up and impact the game if we are trailing. I want his bat up in the ninth in a game we are behind, and batting 2nd guarantees that.
I also recall the outstanding seasons Mattingly had while batting 2nd behind Rickey Henderson. Put an excellent LH hitter up with a speedster on base, and damage will follow.
respectful and thoughtful feedback for which I thank you all.
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Bojo? More like Bozo! How do you like that for respect
I should say batting 2nd guarantees a higher chance that he will gat an at bat.
LGY February 10th, 2011 at 6:46 pm
respectful and thoughtful feedback for which I thank you all.
****
Bojo? More like Bozo! How do you like that for respect
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That’s my cousin.
Face
You know who comes up the most in the 9th inning?
nice theory ill stick with cano 3rd, arod 4th and tex 5th.
i may have already been ‘proven’ wrong, but my grouping has a much better chance of being the yankees actual lineup than anything with jeter 3rd or cano 2nd, IMO.
(my only objection to what the 2 of you are saying about lineups is that it’s your OPINION. it’s valid, but so are many other OPINIONS, and at least as far as mlb managers go yours is a minority opinion.)
Ys Guy–
I agree with you that it probably won’t happen. No harm in discussing it though…and if any team WERE to look at the numbers and do it, it would be the number crunchers on the Yankees.
On the other hand, in the first inning, only the leadoff hitter has a chance to get on base before the #2 hitter comes up. I’m not really buying the #2 theory, not for the Yankees anyway.
I would definitely put Cano in the #3 spot immediately. Tex moves to 5th.
Based on last years performances, I would hit Jeter leadoff vs lhp and 8/9 vs rhp, switching in those spots with Gardner. But he deserves the benefit of the doubt and at least couple months full time in the leadoff spot to see if he bounces back.
This is just one more problem with gifting Derek Jeter that ridiculous contract…
Now we have to deal with his ego when he moves to the bottom of the order and away from SS, which brings up even MORE issues, but I digress…
Leadoff (and then 2-hole) SHOULD be the easiest decision Joe Girardi has, and it SHOULD have already been made…
Brett Gardner is a FAR better leadoff hitter than Jeter is, and Nick Swisher is a FAR better 2-hole hitter than Jeter is… So what’s the problem???
Derek Jeter’s name is Derek Jeter. THAT’S the problem.
You know who comes up the most in the 9th inning?
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No idea, someone with all the retrosheet data should find out.
Jack–
If Gardy gets on base 40% of time, I’d rather have Cano up there. Gardy is protected by a LH hitter, so he can steal more easily. Cano more likely to get a fastball (as Mattingly used to all the time Rickey was on). It has proven to be a lethal combo in past (Rickey/Donnie), and I’m sure it would work again.
if this new lineup theory requires Jeter to bat third then this new theory can take a flying leap.
Seriously, if in all baseball history the 2, 4 & 6 spots see more men on than the 3 spot, then Face has a point until I can think of an objection.
However the Yanks are not average as Face admits so for the Yanks more data is needed.
Face
Yeah. Also I wish b ref would keep more extensive stats like risp in their spots in the lineup section. The Yankees had so much movement in the 2 spot last year it is too hard to figure out how stuff.
if this new lineup theory requires Jeter to bat third then this new theory can take a flying leap.
Seriously, if in all baseball history the 2, 4 & 6 spots see more men on than the 3 spot, then Face has a point until I can think of an objection.
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Well I was rightfully scolded for the Jeter hitting third thing, I don’t think the new lineup theory would recommend Jeter hit third. I think it would probably be Gardner Cano Tex A-rod the rest
Wave
Yes! B ref needs more info!
YankeesNmore February 10th, 2011 at 6:53 pm
Derek Jeter’s name is Derek Jeter. THAT’S the problem.
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For the sake of the team, do you think we can get him to change it to Hymie Jeter?
If outside of the 1/3/4/5 players the options for the #2 spot were weak, then I might agree with putting Cano #2. But there is Swisher with his .380ish obp or Granderson (at least vs rhp) who I think will hit much better overall this year (based on last 1.5 months after his swing change). And if Jeter and Gardner are both hitting well, there’s another option.
Anyway, I think there’s no way Girardi hits Cano #2. I’d be surprised if he even put him #3.
now i’ll throw in a whole new wrinkle…i like not having a set lineup. i do worry about what happens when a ‘star’ in underperforming and what a change in position does to hie ego when he is always in the same spot, be that jeter, tex, or anyone else.
it certainly makes logical sence to move tex back some in april (at least until he starts hitting) but you have to worry about what it does to his confidence.
other streaky hitters (swish(?) granderson(?) could be moved according to what they are up to recently.
this way you avoid the big controversy that always accompanies any movement in the heart of the order and maximize your offense by using the hot hand in the best spot.
its only the egos that get in the way, imo.
(not this is only my personal preference and my opinion, not any kind of fact)
I like :
Gardner
Jeter
Cano
Arod
Teixera
Swisher
Granderson
Posada
Martin
The lineup should be good however they stack it though…..really glad to hear that Alex is apparently past most of the hip issues. He could put up a monster season this year.
*note* instead of not to start the last sentence
I’d put Gardner, Jeter, Tex, Alex, Cano at the top. If Gardner really struggles, then you move him out. He’s patient and is at or near the top in pitches per PA. And he can steal bases. He may not hit a lot of doubles, but if he gets on it can be as good as one. If people are worried about GIDP for Jeter, then speed in front of him can help neutralize that.
“If people are worried about GIDP for Jeter, then speed in front of him can help neutralize that.”
m -
Only IF Gardner starts to be more aggresive and runs early in the count, and is not a statue on 1B. In SWB, he was considered too aggressive, he needs to get some of that back.
Only IF Gardner starts to be more aggresive and runs early in the count, and is not a statue on 1B
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He ran most often in early counts.
BoJo -
Hymie Jeter, really? Using an offensive slang word that’s a disparaging term for a Jew. I guess your a fan of Jessie Jackson.
This entire thread sounds like an old Abbot and Costello skit.
IMO, Gardner and Jeter have speed that needs to be utilized. Same goes for ARod (presuming his hip is actually @ 100%) and Granderson.
Ideally, I’d like to see Gardner leadoff with Jeter behind him (similar to Damon/Jeter), but I’m sure that Jeter will have every opportunity in ST to prove he still has the eye to lead off. Gardner leading off generally means that he has the green light and no impediments in front of him (only guaranteed in the 1st inning of course).
Jeter batting second, gives Gardner the freedom to run, which often moves the defenders at SS or 2B to cover, possibly allowing Jeter’s hit to find a hole. If so, Gardner ends up on 3B, and Jeter on 1B.
Tex is a bit more patient than Cano, but Cano is a better hitter. Chances are Tex has the opportunity at the start in the 3 hole, but if he falters, Cano could get the nod.
Gardner
Jeter
Tex
ARod
Cano
Posada
Swisher
Granderson/Martin
Martin/Granderson
Jerkface -
I watched all too often when Brett stood there watching guys bat, when he was put into the game to run, but did not. He can’t wait until the count is in the pitcher’s favor, or be timid because a big hitter is at bat, this is what he was doing all too often after the AS break.
Nick in SF……..There is no way that The Huskies beat The Cal Berkley Bears tonight by 13.5 points, no way…..I also have The Bruins spotting The Ducks 8…
I’ll acknowledge that Brett needs ti improve his base stealing, but some of you make him sound really bad.
Can anyone think of a better leadoff candidate (from our own 25-man roster)?
Good night folks.
And even if Brett stands there like a statue, he’s still faster than some. He’s that fast.
i dont know what the stats say but i agree with big al that gardner seemed hesitant to steal when they needed the steal the most. i realize that the other team is keyed up to throw him out in those situations, but he has the kind of speed that he should not worry about that.
Why does Arod have to bat fourth? We went on a tear when Cano batted there, I think Arod needs a kick in the a$$ to get going again. Why would anyone want Jeter batting 2nd? We moved him from there for good reason, and it worked. Also, whats wrong with putting the cold guys in the back and letting them prove themselves back to the top. Swish has been awesome in the 2 spot, if he bats there like he did last year, then we are golden in that slot– if it ain’t broke…. Its a long season and we’ve been cold cold cold in april, why not mix it up and try to win some games so we don’t have to be 6 games behind the blue jays come may. The AL East is going to be good this year, we could be in last after a month if we don’t come out swinging, and if the pitching is going to be more 2008 than 2009, we’re going to need a monster year from this offense…. This is my lineup, I wasn’t going to make one, but I haven’t seen a good one yet…
Gardner
Swisher
Tex
Cano
Arod
Posada
Jeter
Martin
Granderson
The Yanks’ lineup vs. righties:
Gardner
Swisher
Cano
ARod
Tex
Posada
Granderson
Martin
Jeter
vs. lefties:
Jeter
Swisher
Tex
ARod
Cano
Posada
Jones
Martin
Gardner/Granderson
You want to give your best hitters, the guys who get on base the most, the most PAs for the season.