The LoHud Yankees Blog

Joba Chamberlain has arrived at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, and according to the reporters who are already down there, Chamberlain looks a little bigger than last season.

Of course, bigger isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Chamberlain said he’s added gym to his house and added some muscle to his frame. He’s always been a big guy — he was big when I met him in 2007, and he was big when I covered him in 2010 — and whether a slightly bigger, stronger version will be a better version remains to be seen. Right now all we know is he’s in Tampa, and he’ll be in the Yankees bullpen.

Chamberlain said he “knew the discussion would happen” regarding a move back to the rotation, but he’s confident he’ll be back in the bullpen.

• Russell Martin did some squatting today and seemed to come through it with no problems.

• Speaking of catchers, Francisco Cervelli was in Tampa this morning and said he’s still working toward making himself a starting catcher. People always talk about competition being used as motivation. That certainly seems to be the case with Martin, Cervelli and Jesus Montero. We haven’t heard from Austin Romine yet, but I’m betting he’s also ready to prove himself. It’s an interesting situation.

• Cervelli also took some grounders at third. Yesterday, Martin was taking some infield grounders as well. Not especially unusual.

• For the second day in a row, Dave Robertson was the first on the field. He apparently said he’s tired of fishing and golf. Knowing Robertson, I fully believe this to be a lie.

• Others reportedly at the complex today: Derek Jeter, Colin Curtis and Justin Maxwell. Also, Phil Hughes was back this morning.

Associated Press photo of Chamberlain, and no it’s not from today

In just a few minutes — or right now, depending on when you’re looking at this post — Sam and I will be video chatting live  and in living color from the spacious studio of The Journal News sports department.

Get in on the conversation by going to www.lohud.com/protalklive and submitting a question or a comment.

The chat begins at 12:15.

Usually, I use this time to respond to the morning’s guest post. Today, though, I’m on my way to the office for a pre-Tampa meeting and a video chat with Sam.

Don’t forget, stop by this afternoon at 12:15 and shoot a question to Sam and I. We’ll be video chatting right here on the blog, trying to touch on all of the big Yankees topics heading into spring training.

Speaking of which, we have our first Yankee-in-great-shape story of the spring. Granted, we’ve already heard a little bit about Russell Martin showing up in better shape than he was in last spring, but Buster Olney reports that CC Sabathia has dropped a whopping 30 pounds in an effort to take care of that surgically repaired knee. That’s a big change for the big man. Good for him.

Don’t forget. 12:15. Video chat. See you then!

UPDATE, 11:24 a.m.: One more thing, Jon Morosi just reported that the Yankees have agreed to a minor league deal with Luis Ayala. Looks like more bullpen depth for Scranton.

Our next Pinch Hitter, Dan Hanzus, is a Rockland County native and current “Los Angeleno” who has been writing his Yankees blog, River & Sunset, since 2008. Dan admits that he, “sometimes looks up at the night sky and wonders if Shelley Duncan is gazing at the same star.” My guess is there’s a 50-50 chance.

This is Dan’s third entry to the LoHud Pinch Hitter series. He wrote about Derek Jeter back in 2009 and Donnie Baseball in 2010. This year he tackled the subject of Brian Cashman’s contract year.

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Sometimes I wonder if Brian Cashman woke up one morning and decided he just didn’t care what you thought about him anymore.

In an offseason during which Cliff Lee dissed him, ownership undercut him, and Andy Pettitte Brett Favred him, Cashman has remained unflappable, disconnected even. Some in his position would’ve developed a facial tick from the stress by now. Cashman? He dresses up like an elf and shimmies down a building. He serves pints of Guinness in a Corey Haim wig. He makes half-hearted contract offers to Carl Pavano just to see if the internet can explode from snark.

It reminds me of Office Space, when the restless and disgruntled Peter Gibbons decides the way to escape the monotony of his droll life is to revolt against the system that shackles him. He accomplishes this by barely showing up for work, defying his superiors, and occasionally gutting a trout in his cubicle. In the movie, Peter’s blunt insubordination is rewarded with a promotion by corporate lunkheads who mistake his disobedience for leadership.

Could Cashman be banking on the same result?

If Cashman is restless, perhaps it’s understandable. The 43-year-old has been the general manager of the Yankees for 13 years. That’s a long time to be a manager at The Gap, let alone a chief cabinet member for the most successful sports franchise in America. With The Boss gone and the organization in a controlled state of flux, Cashman — consciously or not — may be testing the limits of how entrenched he really is.

The job he’s done in that time continues to be a lightning rod of debate in Yankee Universe. Supporters say he’s a smart, hard-working executive who has earned the respect of colleagues around the game. Detractors believe he was simply along for the ride during the dynasty run, a poor talent evaluator, and was directly responsible for the team’s title drought last decade.

Wherever you stand, most will agree that no GM works under the same level of expectations. The Boss may be dead, but the Steinbrenner Doctrine — anything short of a championship is considered failure — lives on. Yes, Cashman is armed with the golden checkbook, but he also has the smallest margin of error. Call it a wash.

Cashman is entering the final year of his contract. During his 2005 renegotiation, Cashman demanded, and received, the power to restructure the baseball operations. He said that the dueling factions in New York and Tampa needed to disappear, and they did. For a five-year stretch Cashman was El Hombre, every bit as vital to the Yankees enterprise as A-Rod, Jeter, or Sabathia.

That’s what made the Rafael Soriano signing such an eye-opener. For the first time since he threatened to walk in ’05, Cashman was publicly undermined on a key personnel decision. If Hal Steinbrenner has decided to take a more active role, is there room for both men atop the food chain?

It all makes for great theater as the 2011 season unfolds. By this time next year, we’ll likely know the true alpha dog when it comes to the construction of the Yankees.

(Cut to Hank in his shadowy lair, cigarette dangling, bourbon in hand, black cat on lap: “That’s what you think.”)

Gulp.

Associated Press photos

For those of you curious about what’s going on down in Tampa this week, one of our frequent readers — blog handle, Tyanksfan36 — emailed this picture which was taken this morning at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa.

• The Red Sox reportedly consider Alfredo Aceves a starter rather than a reliever. He also had a big league offer from the Mets.

• With good reason, the story of Wake Forest coach Tom Walter is spreading to various media outlets: Walter donated a kidney to freshman outfielder Kevin Jordan, who was actually drafted by the Yankees before committing to Wake Forest.

• Jay Jaffe used PECOTA to evaluate the Yankees fourth and fifth starter candidates. Believe it or not, the best projected numbers belonged to Sergio Mitre and Hector Noesi. Ivan Nova’s numbers are near the bottom, behind Manny Banuelos and David Phelps. By the way, I think there’s a very real chance we’ll still be talking about Noesi in the middle of March. He could make a run at this thing.

• The Yankees signed a kid named Freiter Marte out of the Dominican Prospect League. He’s a 20-year-old outfielder, but that’s pretty much all I know about him.

• A a few days ago Donnie Collins offered a nice take on new Yankees outfielder Justin Maxwell. Donnie wrote: He is a guy that you see, and you remember. He has hit 19 homers in 177 games the last two seasons with Syracuse, and when he connects, the ball flies. And when the ball is hit toward him, he flies. He is as good a defensive outfielder as there was in the International League.

• To make room on the 40-man for Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, the Rays designated outfielders Justin Ruggiano and Leslie Anderson for assignment. Ruggiano’s opportunity had kind of come and gone in Tampa, but Anderson showed some promise as an older-than-usual prospect last year.

• Not sure this should be considered “cool” but I think it’s pretty awesome: Baseball Prospectus figured out which game Ferris Bueller attended during his day off.

Brian Cashman made this much clear: Russell Martin will be the Yankees starting catcher in 2011, and Jorge Posada will get the bulk of his at-bats as the regular designated hitter. The backup catcher, Cashman has said, is up for grabs.

The possibilities
The incumbent is Francisco Cervelli, and he seems to be heading into camp as the favorite if only because the other candidates come with player development concerns. Jesus Montero and Austin Romine are among the top catching prospects in baseball, and although neither is finished developing, both seem ready to at least contribute at the big league level. Non-roster invitee Gustavo Molina probably factors into this discussion to some degree, but he seems to be an extreme long-shot.

The easy choice
Last season, Cervelli went through the sort of peaks and valleys you’d expect from a backup catcher. The peaks were a little higher and valleys a little lower than you might anticipate, but ultimately, he was productive in his role and occasionally gave the Yankees a significant boost. He wasn’t as good defensively as his minor league reputation suggested, but pitchers seemed to enjoy throwing to him and he was certainly an energetic force whether he was on the bench or in the lineup. This winter, Cervelli worked with Robinson Cano to improve his hitting, and the easy thing would be to stick with Cervelli out of spring training.

The alternatives
Even after a so-so season in Double-A, Romine still has plenty of believers who think he’s the Yankees true future at the catching position. His defensive upside is higher than Montero’s, and he should have more than enough bat for the position. But the fact is, Romine hit .268 with 10 home runs in Double-A last year. He didn’t get many raves for his defense either. He would have to make a huge impression to get the job.

The real temptation is Montero, arguably the top non-outfield prospect in baseball. There’s little doubt he’s already a better hitter than Cervelli, the question is whether he can do the job defensively, and whether he’ll get enough at-bats to make a big league assignment worthwhile. Montero just turned 21 years old and seemed to make significant strides in the second half of last season. Another year of regular duty in Triple-A — or at least another three months of regular duty — might do Montero a lot of good in the long run. And what’s best for Montero is ultimately what’s best for the Yankees.

A separate but related issue
The Yankees might very well decide that the big picture is too important for them to carry Montero out of spring training — frankly, they owe it to themselves to see what Martin can do as well — but the situation on April 1 doesn’t have to still be the situation on July 1. Among the Yankees most important decisions is how long they can wait for Montero, and how long of a leash they can keep on Posada and Martin. What the Yankees see in spring training might not have an impact on Opening Day, but it might very well come into play by the all-star break.

Associated Press photo of Cervelli, Mike Ashmore photo of Romine

According to Pete Abraham and Nick Cafardo, the Red Sox have signed former Yankees reliever Alfredo Aceves to a Major League deal. The signing came after Aceves worked out for the Red Sox on Monday.

Aceves was non-tendered this winter after a lingering lower-back injury cost him most of the 2010 season. He then broke his left clavicle this winter, an injury that required surgery.

When the Yankees non-tendered Aceves, they let him know they’d like to bring him back on a minor league deal.

Not positive, but I believe Aceves should have at least one option remaining, meaning the Red Sox won’t have to carry him on the big league roster out of spring training.

* Sorry, accidentally wrote “minor league deal” in the original post. Fixed it.

To picture the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, imagine a Little League complex with nicer fields and less seating. There are four fields arranged in a circle (using a clock as a reference, there’s a field between 12 and 3, another from 3 to 6, and so on). In the middle is a small building with seating up top so scouts and coordinators can keep an eye on all four fields. Mark Newman practically lives up there when minor league camp opens.

Between two of the fields — essentially at 12 o’clock — there is a bullpen with three or four mounds. Between two more fields — at 9 o’clock — there is a set of batting cages. The Yankees minor league office is in the back, behind two fields, with a clubhouse for the players.

It’s a nice complex, with everything a baseball player could possibly need, but nothing about it feels Major League. And it’s certainly not glamorous. The players who are there right now, are there to work. Nothing more. So far, three New York writers are on the scene: Erik Boland, Brian Costello and the newly arrived Anthony McCarron. There’s not a lot going on out there, but those three have it covered.

• First to arrive this morning was Dave Robertson, probably wearing high socks and some sort of camouflage. Just a guess.

• New Yankees catcher Russell Martin said he’s still not 100 percent – he’s coming back from a hip injury and minor knee surgery — but he expects to be 100 percent by Opening Day and should do some catching tomorrow.

• Martin said he still feels a need to earn the everyday job, and he’s gotten himself into good shape this offseason. He weights about 15 pounds less than last spring.

• Jesus Montero was also at the complex today. He said his goal is to break camp as the Yankees starting catcher. I don’t think it will happen, but you’ve got to love the fact Montero wants to make that kind of impression.

• Derek Jeter was back at the complex. He took some batting practice with Rob Thomson.

• Other players working out this morning: Andrew Brackman, Ivan Nova, Colin Curtis and assorted minor leaguers.

REMINDER: Sam and I have a video chat tomorrow at 12:15 p.m. We’ll be right here talking about the Yankees heading into spring training.

Associated Press photo of Martin (obviously not taken this morning)

Three years later and we’re still having the same Joba Chamberlain debate. Amazing. The reasons for the argument have changed — and in many cases, the participants have switched sides — but the essential question remains the same. In January of 2008, Jay could have written more or less the same guest post and been just as relevant.

How in the world did we get from there to here without ever changing the conversation?

2007
Chamberlain breezed through the Yankees system in his first pro season. As he approached his innings limit — a safety measure enforced on a lot of young starters — the Yankees decided not to shut him down, but to move Chamberlain to the bullpen and call him to New York. He pitched 24 big league innings in the regular season, striking out 34, walking six and allowing just 12 hits. He was remarkable. Absolutely remarkable.

Winter 2007-08
Understandably impressed by his bravado and dominance, some fans and reporters called for the Yankees to keep Chamberlain right where he was. He was the heir to Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning. A once-in-a-lifetime talent out of the bullpen.

Understandably convinced that a top-of-the-rotation starter would be more valuable than a closer, the Yankees stuck with Chamberlain’s development plan but added one modification. Instead of getting his final development innings in the minor leagues, Chamberlain would open 2008 as a big league reliever and gradually move into the rotation. Unorthodox? Sure. But it was the best way to let Chamberlain develop without wasting his immediate talent in the minor leagues.

Spring/summer 2008
The Joba Rules might have been frustrating, but they were effective. Chamberlain opened the season as a force out of the bullpen, and when he got himself stretched out as a starter, he was similarly dominant. Through his first two months in the big league rotation, Chamberlain went 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 60.2 innings.

August/September 2008
A shoulder injury in Texas changed everything. On August 4, Chamberlain left a game after 93 pitches and didn’t make another start that season. He returned to pitch out of the bullpen down the stretch and the results were more or less the same as they had been in the first half.

2009
The Yankees did not immediately give up on Chamberlain as a starter. He was in the rotation from the beginning of the 2009 season. He again had an innings limit, which was not unusual for a pitcher… 1. Less than three years removed from college, 2. Who had never pitched as many as 115 innings in a season, and 3. Coming off a shoulder injury the previous year.

The Yankees gave Chamberlain a full year as a Major League starter, and the results were not good. Based on everything the Yankees had seen — and everything the fans had seen — a 4.75 ERA and 7.6 strikeouts-per-nine innings were solid indications that something wasn’t quite right. Chamberlain was not the same guy.

Spring 2010
The Yankees elected not to guarantee Chamberlain a spot in the 2010 rotation. They had four starters in place, and an open competition for the fifth spot. Technically a five-man competition, it was realistically a battle of two 20-something prospects, each proven in the bullpen but yet to establish himself in the rotation.

Phil Hughes won. He won because of his results, and he seemed to win because of his raw stuff. Although the Yankees never said Chamberlain was a lesser pitcher, they were quick to praise Hughes for the improvement of his changeup and the development of his cutter. At the end of spring training, pro scouting director Billy Eppler said his personal opinion was that Chamberlain would remain a reliever in 2010 and beyond.

Summer/fall 2010
Chamberlain had plenty of bad outings, but he was generally an effective reliever, probably better than his overall numbers indicated. He was not, however, the lights-out reliever we witnessed in 2007 and 2008. Lower velocity. Not the same sort of slider. At the trade deadline, when Kerry Wood was available for pennies on the dollar, the Yankees made the move and Chamberlain moved easily into a middle-inning role. He was very good in that spot, and there were moments when he showed flashes of his old velocity.

Winter 2010/11
Three years ago, those who questioned the Yankees decision to develop Chamberlain as a starter did so because of what they knew to be true.  The Yankees had seen Chamberlain dominate out of the bullpen, why would they take him out of a role that so perfectly suited his talent and his demeanor. For the record, I was fully in the Joba-should-be-a-starter camp.

Today, those who question the Yankees decision to keep Chamberlain in the bullpen do so because of what they think might happen. The Yankees need a starter, and Chamberlain might very well find that old dominance. Why in the world would the Yankees not give it a shot?

My guess is that the Yankees don’t want to give it a shot because they know more than we know.

I firmly believe that a young starter is more valuable than a young reliever. Cashman, Eppler and the rest of the Yankees decision makers believe  the same thing. They proved it three years ago when they kept developing Chamberlain as a starter. They proved it last year when they moved Hughes back into the rotation. They prove it every year in the minor leagues, developing nearly all of their top young pitchers as starters until they stumble their way into the bullpen.

What the Yankees see in Chamberlain is a pitcher who is not what he was four years ago. He doesn’t have the same “physicality” is the way Cashman explained it to me. The fact Cashman won’t waver at a time when he’s desperate for a starting pitcher tells me all I need to know: The Yankees staff — their scouts, their coaches, their player development gurus — look at Chamberlain see a pitcher who is better suited for the bullpen, plain and simple.

We can play the what-if game with anyone. Boone Logan throws pretty hard from the left side, and he has a quality changeup. Why isn’t he a rotation candidate? Mark Teixeira has a great glove and came up as a third baseman. Why not give him a shot as the guy to spell Alex Rodriguez occasionally at third (it is, after all, much easier to find a first base stand-in). Dellin Betances was brilliant last year in the minor leagues. Why not put him immediately into the big league rotation? It can’t hurt to try, right?

The Yankees make their decisions based on something more than a hunch and a hope. They have scouts and advisors and decision makers who overwhelm themselves with information. In Chamberlain, they once saw what we saw — a young pitcher with top-of-the-rotation stuff — but now they see something different.

“I don’t think that equipment necessarily exists now,” Cashman said.

Is it possible the Yankees are wrong? Absolutely. But they do what they do, they see what they see, and they make a decision. For the Yankees, the Chamberlain debate is over.

Associated Press photos

Next up in our Pinch Hitters series is Jay Hyne, a lawyer who grew up in Wayne, N.J. and now works as a law clerk for a federal judge in West Hartford, CT. He’s regular blogger at www.nyat.net, a blog with beginnings that trace back — believe it or not — to Brandeis University in Waltham, Mass., where most of the writers co-hosted a sports talk radio show on Thursday nights from midnight until 2:00 a.m.  ”I guess that was the only timeslot that WBRS would give to a bunch of Yankees fans!” Jay wrote.

In 1998, Jay experienced three of his finest Yankees memories: He traded for his first and only Mickey Mantle baseball card (a 1964 Topps), attended his first and only World Series game (Game 1), and won a sweepstakes that allowed him to play actual baseball in the actual Yankee Stadium. A few hours before a September game against Toronto, Jay took the field with about 25 others to go through drills with various Yankees coaches. “My only regret is that my sister exposed the film in my dad’s camera so I only have a couple of blanched photos as proof of this once-in-a-lifetime experience,” he wrote.

For his guest post, Jay took on a familiar subject: The best role for Joba Chamberlain. His opinion is an unfamiliar one: He actually likes Joba in the bullpen.

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Nowhere Else To Go: The Case For Keeping Joba in the Bullpen

One of the keys to the Yankees dynasty from 1996 to 2001 was the strength and depth of its bullpen. The Yankees didn’t always have the best rotation in the league, but they approached each game as though it were only six innings because the bullpen could protect the lead through innings 7, 8, and 9.

Notwithstanding the value of a lights-out bullpen, you need starting pitching to win championships. That’s why Brian Cashman tried hard to acquire Cliff Lee this offseason. It was a logical pursuit, given the Yankees’ surplus of cash and obvious need for another top-of-the-line starter. Unfortunately, Lee signed with Philadelphia and there aren’t many appealing names left on the market.

Without Lee and facing the prospect of Andy Pettitte’s retirement, Cashman seems committed to the next best option, which is to offset the impact of a thin rotation by building the best bullpen in baseball. Sound familiar?

Sure enough, the sting from losing out on Lee has since been assuaged by the acquisition of Rafael Soriano, who is going to be a tremendous weapon in the eighth inning. He and Mariano Rivera represent the best setup/closer combination in the league.

But how will the Yankees get through the sixth and seventh innings? They have David Robertson and two lefties in Pedro Feliciano and Boone Logan. The bullpen clearly needs another righty, preferably someone who can generate swings and misses. The best person for that job is Joba Chamberlain, whose 9.67 K/9 trailed only Kerry Wood and Robertson in 2010. To add another chapter to the starter vs. reliever debate, here are six more reasons why Joba should remain in the bullpen:

1. Brian Cashman finally stated what many have suspected: Joba’s shoulder has never recovered from the injury he suffered in Texas in 2008. Or perhaps his arm isn’t strong enough to handle a starter’s workload. Either way, his velocity remains down and Joba seems unable to make up the difference with his control. Consequently, he got knocked around a lot in 2009: 167 hits in 157.1 IP.

2. In fact, he’s gotten hit pretty hard, especially in Yankee Stadium. His career ERA is more than a run higher at home versus on the road (4.26 vs. 3.21). Despite identical .317 BABIP splits, his OPS jumps in the Bronx. Furthermore, his K/BB ratio is lower at home, and he even struggles to hold runners close (31 SB home, 14 SB away). Not a very impressive track record in 43 career starts.

3. There is a significant difference between the value of Joba’s primary weapon, his fastball, as a starter and as a reliever. Fangraphs calculates Pitch Type Linear Weights to denote the standardized amount of runs that a pitcher saves with each pitch over the course of 100 pitches thrown. As a starter in 2009, Joba’s wFB/C was -1.21, but that figure improved to 0.36 as a reliever in 2010. In other words, while Joba’s fastball might not be as devastating as it was three years ago (1.51 wFB/C in 2007), it is noticeably more effective in short relief stints than in full starts.

It also bears mentioning that Joba’s 2010 WAR (1.4) was the second highest among all Yankee relievers, behind only Mariano. Yet it was just 1.8 in 2009, far lower than the other pitchers who started at least 30 games: CC Sabathia (6.3), Andy Pettitte (3.6), and A.J. Burnett (3.4).

4. Joba hasn’t started a game since September 30, 2009, so his arm is not stretched out. Even if Cashman wanted to make him a starter, he would need considerable time in Scranton to get ready. This puts a hole in both the rotation and the bullpen for an extended period of time early in the season.

Here is another thing to consider: Right now, Joba could pitch two innings out of the bullpen, and possibly more in a pinch. Keeping Chamberlain in the bullpen could conceivably help entice Andy Pettitte to come back; he would only need to get through five innings because Joba could bridge him to Soriano and Mo.

5. Unless Cashman intends to sign another right-handed reliever, what better options do the Yankees have? Andrew Brackman and Romulo Sanchez have pitched a combined 4.1 innings in the big leagues. I don’t think either one is ready for the job.

6. Joba may never regain his 2007 magic, but we all saw how much he embraced his setup role that season. His bulldog personality is best suited to bullpen work where he can empty the tank in just one or two innings. His improved wFB/C in relief confirms this perception.

These may be moot points, as Cashman has already said that there is no chance that Joba will be in the rotation. But it’s one thing to take a stand in January, and quite another to remain patient if Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre are injured or ineffective and the Yankees start to fade in the standings. We’ll see if Cashman can take the pressure and keep Joba in the bullpen when things get messy.

Associated Press photos