The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Time to make a decision

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Mar 28, 2011 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

The Yankees have announced their rotation, they’ve made it clear that Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez are on the Opening Day roster, and they’ve picked Bartolo Colon as their long man. Joe Girardi is expected to announce the rest of his Opening Day roster this afternoon (except perhaps a pair of injury replacements).

Backup catcher
Favorite: Gustavo Molina
After Francisco Cervelli broke his foot, and the prospects showed they still have a few things to learn, Molina has emerged as the clear front-runner for this role. If you weren’t convinced already, the fact he caught CC Sabathia and a series of big league relievers on Saturday should have sold it. Probably a short-term place holder.

Utility infielder
Favorite: Eduardo Nunez
Nunez and Ramiro Pena seemed pretty even when camp opened, but Nunez has been dynamic enough that I have to think he’s the favorite for the spot. It wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to carry Pena — mostly because this is going to be such a minimal role — but Nunez is the one who keeps getting regular time in left field and the most at-bats.

Pedro Feliciano replacement
Favorite: Steve Garrison
Probably won’t get this announcement today, but Garrison does seem to be the front-runner. He’s a lefty — which makes him a natural replacement — but he’s also on the 40-man, which makes him an easier addition than Luis Ayala or Mark Prior. Indications are that Romulo Sanchez will be out of the organization soon, and Garrison would give the Yankees a second lefty who could also pitch three or four innings if necessary.

Curtis Granderson replacement
Favorite: Chris Dickerson
The Yankees have seen more of Greg Golson and Justin Maxwell, but those two are right-handed hitters. Their roles would be minimal with Andruw Jones on the roster. Dickerson is a lefty who’s hit right-handed pitching in his career. He’s the best fit, but he has to get past his hamstring injury. It’s doubtful the Yankees will announce anything about this situation until Tuesday or Wednesday (or maybe even Thursday). There’s still a chance Granderson will break camp.

Associated Press photo of Nunez

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127 Responses to “Time to make a decision”

  1. NJ Pete March 28th, 2011 at 11:53 am

    Repost:

    Have the 40 man moves been discussed? I could be wrong on this but I think there are 5 players to be added and 2 spots available. The return of Fish and Turpin opened 2 spots. Garcia, Colon, Chavez, Jones and Molina need to be added. Marte goes to the 60. Still need two spots. Has Sanchez been traded or DFA?d yet?

  2. Niblick March 28th, 2011 at 11:53 am

    Molina and Garrison? Ugh.

  3. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    As I have said, the roster is so strong that marginal decisions probably won’t have any impact,and likely can and will be easily cured as needs (or underperformances) arise.

    On a side note, even though I was against the Andruw Jones signing, I still think he will be a valuable contributor this season.

    I also expect Montero to be catching two or three times a week by July 15th.

  4. Nick in SF March 28th, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    I hope it’s Dickerson. He had the best ST of any Yankee!

  5. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 12:08 pm

    Stuckey want a cracker.

  6. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 12:09 pm

    Ah, so Molina was catching the ML guys yesterday.

    There goes that theory.

  7. Jerkface March 28th, 2011 at 12:10 pm

    I have a bad feeling that Chavez good spring is going to be for naught and Andruw Jones bad spring will mean nothing.

    Which is a bit of a pickle because one guy I like and the other guy I don’t! Hopefully they are both good. (Oh god what if they are both bad?!)

  8. BD (Boston Dave) March 28th, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    Jerkface,

    If healthy, Chavez has always had a good bat. I don’t think he’ll tear it up but I think he’ll be one of the better bench players in the league if he’s healthy.

  9. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    Schilling coming on radio in a.minute…..this should be good.

  10. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    Schilling < dead air

  11. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:14 pm

    I don’t see how Chavez will get many AB. all things being equal.

  12. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    Jones shouldn’t get many ABs if everyone is healthy..

  13. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:19 pm

    blake

    I hope that’s true, but I think that unless he’s awful for say his first 30 AB or so, Girardi will likely use in the OF v. LHP.

  14. Pat M. March 28th, 2011 at 12:19 pm

    Schilling last week said that The Yanks could be a 3rd / 4th place team this season if the pitching struggles ….He excluded CC …..He also said that Boston runs away in the AL East

  15. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:21 pm

    They don’t need platoons. Gardner and Granderson both should play every day unless one of them is showing a significant split after the first 6weeks or so……IMO.

  16. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:23 pm

    Schilling said today that whoever gets the most out of their rotation will win the east….and that obviously when you can slot Beckett into your 4 hole then you’re pretty deep. Predictable.

  17. RayVT March 28th, 2011 at 12:24 pm

    And here I was thinking that Beantown could easily finish 3rd behind the Yanks & TB. If I were a Sux fan, I’d be concerned with the SP Pitching, the CL & bullpen.

  18. upstate kate March 28th, 2011 at 12:25 pm

    I guess you could look at it that way…or you could say that is how far Beckett’s value has dropped

  19. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:25 pm

    Schilling has to be right, then. He is a former ballplayer.

  20. Bronx Jeers March 28th, 2011 at 12:26 pm

    Schilling coming on radio in a.minute…..this should be good.

    ————————————————————————–

    Define “good”

  21. RayVT March 28th, 2011 at 12:26 pm

    Quite often a star leaves a team & the team that lost the star does great & the one who obtained him does less than expected. It would be funny if SD & TB did really well & the Beantown crew fell apart! Maybe Buck can move his O’s ahead of them too. LOL!

  22. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:27 pm

    Its amazing the difference in public opinion between Beckett and Burnett when they have been basically the same pitcher for the last 5 years.

  23. Nick in SF March 28th, 2011 at 12:27 pm

    “….He also said that Boston runs away in the AL East…”

    The only running away he knows about is the running away he does from the Heinz Trademark Infringement attorneys.

  24. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    Good if you like loads of hot air

  25. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    Well if he said that then he’s neatly skirting the issue.

    Tampa’s BP could go from questionable to decent if they load in with guys from their system. I like their starters better than Boston’s, especially with Shields eating innings for them. Shields trumps Buccholz as a more reliable Number 2.

  26. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    RayVT March 28th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
    Quite often a star leaves a team & the team that lost the star does great & the one who obtained him does less than expected. It would be funny if SD & TB did really well & the Beantown crew fell apart! Maybe Buck can move his O’s ahead of them too. LOL!

    ///
    Tampa doing well would not be a surprise, though. Their outfield defense isn’t as good but Manny really helps them in a right-handed hitters’ park. I just thing BJ Upton is offensively the swing guy. If he can put it together offensively, and not flail all yr, they will have a good enough offense to go with their young pitching. They also can always call on Desmond Jennings if Damon goes on the DL.

  27. RadioKev March 28th, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    I agree on “no platoons.” Let Gardener and Granderson have cracks at the full time spots before riding them off.

  28. Niblick March 28th, 2011 at 12:33 pm

    Andruw Jones shouldn’t get off the pine unless there’s an injury. A bad one, at that.

  29. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    I agree that they don’t need platoons, blake, but I’m not sure that Girardi agrees.

  30. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:34 pm

    Gardner will play every day. He’ll bat ninth against LHP & get pinch hit for at times against lefties late. They are not platooning him or Granderson.

  31. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    Like last year (Thames) Jones will likely get some starts early against lefties just to get him started and so the Yankees can see what they have in him.

    This will lead some people to think he’ll platoon all year, but he won’t.

  32. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    Rich,

    Yea I don’t know either….I don’t like the “we brought him here to play against lefties ” quotes. The should have brought him in to be a 4th outfielder/bench guy.

  33. Pat M. March 28th, 2011 at 12:39 pm

    I wonder what Andruw Jones looks like with whipped cream on his face ????

  34. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:40 pm

    Stuckey,

    Yea I agree….but I think a lot of that was because they didn’t trust Gardner early and because Granderson struggled so much with lefties before the adjustments. I can see a start every now and then but he really shouldn’t play much….

  35. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:40 pm

    Pat M,

    I hope we.get to find out.

  36. Bronx Jeers March 28th, 2011 at 12:42 pm

    Shields trumps Buccholz as a more reliable Number 2.

    ———————————————————————————-

    Define “more reliable”

    If you are looking for someone to look after your laptop then yes, Shields is the man.

    Or is “Number 2″ code for poo?

  37. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:43 pm

    I just got a little tired of seeing Kearnsy out there etc… last year instead of just playing the 3 best outfielders every day.

  38. Jerkface March 28th, 2011 at 12:44 pm

    BJ Upton changed his swing, the Tampa guys broke it down and it is a lot like Granderson/Swisher. Widened his base, got rid of a bunch of excess movement, might actually realize his potential.

  39. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    I’d rather see Jeter’s face that way.

    I don’t think it really matters whether or not it’s a strict platoon in the technical sense. I think the issue is AB, and as blake alludes to, the ability for Gardner and Granderson to get sufficient exposure to tough LHP to give them the best chance to improve.

  40. Jerkface March 28th, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    I wonder what Andruw Jones looks like with whipped cream on his face ????

    The opposite of swisher in black face.

  41. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    The pie most definitely HAS to be retired this year.

    The luck didn’t carry over from 2009 to 2010.

    Time to move on.

  42. Benny Blanco March 28th, 2011 at 12:46 pm

    Blake,

    Burnett and becketts win loss records are almost indentical. The only difference was Beckett was brilliant in the postseason 4 years ago.

    Brilliant against the *cough* rockies.

  43. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:47 pm

    Bronx Jeers March 28th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
    Shields trumps Buccholz as a more reliable Number 2.

    ———————————————————————————-

    Define “more reliable”

    If you are looking for someone to look after your laptop then yes, Shields is the man.

    Or is “Number 2? code for poo?
    ///

    His peripherals were good last yr despite giving up HRs. & I don’t like Buccholz’s BB/K. All he has to do is back Price.

  44. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 12:47 pm

    Benny,

    He was also very good against the Yankees once, which probably contributes even more to his perception.

  45. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:48 pm

    Benny,

    Yup

  46. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:49 pm

    Jerkface March 28th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
    BJ Upton changed his swing, the Tampa guys broke it down and it is a lot like Granderson/Swisher. Widened his base, got rid of a bunch of excess movement, might actually realize his potential.
    ///

    Yea they ran a segment on MLB-network about that. I actually hope he can finally arrive. I just think having Manny around will help him.

  47. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:55 pm

    Anyone in here going to OD?

  48. Five OClock Lightning March 28th, 2011 at 12:55 pm

    After watching Manny Banuelos pitch, I’m wondering is there a Spanish equivalent to ‘easy gas’?

  49. Jerkface March 28th, 2011 at 12:56 pm

    burrito

  50. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    Yes, Shields peripherals were good. He has said his balance was off in second half of last year and he was landing on the side of his foot, throwing off his command. Whereas he is now landing squarely on the foot. He actually has been very good in ST. We’ll get to see him tonight vs. AJ.

  51. Rich in NJ March 28th, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    If they retired the pie thing, AJ might have no role on this team.

  52. Mell March 28th, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    “Brilliant against the *cough* rockies.”

    Outdueled Sabathia twice.

  53. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    Who cares if it’s a pie… walk off wins are not the goal here.

  54. blake March 28th, 2011 at 12:59 pm

    Beckett was really good once….he’s not the same pitcher now and hasn’t been for a few years.

  55. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 12:59 pm

    # J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:55 pm

    Anyone in here going to OD?
    ______
    Yes, showers and 43. Why am I not surprised? At least I am under the overhang.

  56. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 12:59 pm

    Morning Yankfem – I haven’t paid attention to his ST.
    yea I think Shields returns to his norms & is the horse of the staff.

  57. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:00 pm

    Beckett has been dead in the water since the end of ’08

  58. Mell March 28th, 2011 at 1:00 pm

    “Beckett was really good once….he’s not the same pitcher now and hasn’t been for a few years”

    He’s become Burnett.

  59. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    another rainy April,waiting around in the cold for game resumption :(. I wonder what the actual attendance will be.

  60. Five OClock Lightning March 28th, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    Jerkface March 28th, 2011 at 12:56 pm

    burrito

    ———————

    +1

  61. Mell March 28th, 2011 at 1:02 pm

    “Beckett has been dead in the water since the end of ’08″

    9 months later than that. He had an excellent 1st half of ’09.

  62. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:03 pm

    “He’s become Burnett” is a highly illogical phrase. The guy had one bad season after basically leading a team to a WS.

    can you get off his jock?

  63. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 1:03 pm

    In head-to-head, you don’t fear facing beckett if ur a Yankee fan.

  64. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 1:03 pm

    Agree as per Rays pen, Prufrock. McGee has looked awfully good, and they have decided to keep him with the big club, and Torres Alex Cobb will be stashed in Triple-A. That’s the question mark.

    But I think they will hit with addition of Manny (looking good). However, the Matt Joyces and Dan Johnsons of the world will need to contribute.

    As for us, Gardner and Grandy should play every day, w/Jones starting occasionally against a lefty. If Jones does what he did last year, he will be a plus.

  65. blake March 28th, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    Mell,

    Yes…they have basically been the same guy for the last 5 years……

  66. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:04 pm

    mell i do see that in ’09. Once his back started acting up that summer its been straight downhill apparently…

  67. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    Dan Johnson – Over/Under 25 HR’s?

    I’m over.

  68. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    # J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    another rainy April,waiting around in the cold for game resumption :( . I wonder what the actual attendance will be.
    ______
    QFT. The new Stadium will be typically underattended. Sigh, not like the old days…

  69. blake March 28th, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    ID,

    check out the 3 year averages for AJ and Beckett…..last 3 years.

  70. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    3 year averages for a player that had his worst career year ever and another player that has been hurt for a year and a half are not going to tell you anything useful.

  71. Mell March 28th, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    “mell i do see that in ’09. Once his back started acting up that summer its been straight downhill apparently”

    Yeah. Brutal ever since.

  72. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    If Burnett’s ERA was a half a run lower (nearer his xFIP) and he won 3 more games, we wouldn’t even be talking about this.

  73. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    Under on Johnson.

  74. blake March 28th, 2011 at 1:10 pm

    Ok check out the averages for the last 5 years…..they are almost identical. I guess you can say that that 5 years of data is meaningless but its not……also chronic back injuries don’t go in the plus column for a pitcher.

  75. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 1:11 pm

    YF, come hell or high water they will get the game in. Maybe it’ll be a dry night. It’s always easier to take inclement weather when you win :D.

    Will check in later for the official news.

  76. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 1:12 pm

    Thanks for info on Sanchez, JAP.

    I need to go find some food in this godforsaken backwater town full of new American, Italian and Japanese restaurants: No mo mo’s, no summer rolls, no real tortillas… and the Malaysian place is closed on Mondays. :( Later.

  77. J. Alfred Prufrock March 28th, 2011 at 1:14 pm

    YF – Right now I could eat just about anything,but we haven’t shopped yet this week so I’ll be roaming the streets in search of a good meal. Seeyoulater.

  78. BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:16 pm

    I cant understand how Molina is the favorite? He failed with the red sox. We have 2 young guys, we have an opportunity to have a superstar in Montero or a very good catcher in Romine and we’re taking the safe – or as some might call it, the stupid choice – in Molina.

  79. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:16 pm

    blake – i’m not arguing that they are not similar players, they are very much so. Burnett has a clearer path to return to his success than Beckett’s injury problems allow.

  80. BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:17 pm

    This is the problem with having a backup catcher as a manager. Since he was never much of a hitter, he looks for catchers that can “catch” as the backup.

  81. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:19 pm

    I can say this about the differences between AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett.

    Yankees didn’t give up Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to get Burnett, and each guys has 1 ring with his respective current team.

  82. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:20 pm

    beholdarno – that’s certainly possible, it could also be that having a backup catcher that can catch is more important than one that can hit. fairly conventional wisdom in the major leagues.

  83. Irreverent Discourse March 28th, 2011 at 1:21 pm

    stuckey990 – an awesome way to approach the beckett/burnett conversation, i’m totally going to use that :)

  84. Mell March 28th, 2011 at 1:21 pm

    “If Burnett’s ERA was a half a run lower (nearer his xFIP) and he won 3 more games, we wouldn’t even be talking about this”

    Burnett is not going to win the xFIP argument over Beckett, but as you suggest, the injuries for Beckett serve as a greater impediment to him returning to is norm than Burnett returning to his.

  85. yclept March 28th, 2011 at 1:22 pm

    Remember, in most of the interviews we see with Jones, he has stated that one of the reasons why he signed with the Yankees was because of the number of at-bats they said he will get. The only way to know if Jones is going to be useful is if he plays. I think we are going to see more of him than most may want to see. If Granderson cannot start the season, I am not sure if there will be a platoon – I think we’d see a lot of Andruw Jones.

    As for Molina, he has no business on any big league roster for any reason – even if it is only to play once a week until Cervelli gets back. He is a zero-tool player.

  86. tyanksfan36 March 28th, 2011 at 1:22 pm

    Ugh so here I sit at my internship a mere 15 minutes away from the minor league complex where Cano, Montero etc. Are playing intrasquad games. If I didn’t have to go pick up the kids from recess in 10 minutes I would cry.

  87. BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:23 pm

    ID That’s fine. But we have an opportunity at a superstar, to ease him into the big leagues and have him start full time in 2012. If Molina is the backup, when does Montero get the chance?

  88. jacksquat March 28th, 2011 at 1:23 pm

    BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
    I cant understand how Molina is the favorite? He failed with the red sox. We have 2 young guys, we have an opportunity to have a superstar in Montero or a very good catcher in Romine and we’re taking the safe – or as some might call it, the stupid choice – in Molina.

    No, they have decided that Cervelli right now is a better option than Montero (Romine imo is not really in the discussion yet), so instead of adding Montero to the 40 man roster and playing him for a few weeks then sending him back to the minors, they will just use Molina until Cervelli is healthy.

  89. tyanksfan36 March 28th, 2011 at 1:25 pm

    Irreverent Discourse says:

    March 28, 2011 at 1:20 pm

    beholdarno – that’s certainly possible, it could also be that having a backup catcher that can catch is more important than one that can hit. fairly conventional wisdom in the major leagues.

    —-

    I totally agree. If they’re going to have to rely on Molina to get hits to win games then Cano, Arod, tex, swisher, granderson aren’t doing their job and we have far more to be concerned with.

  90. tampayank March 28th, 2011 at 1:25 pm

    chance of a rainout tonight but he rain is needed b/c the pollen has been out of control

  91. Mell March 28th, 2011 at 1:26 pm

    “If Molina is the backup, when does Montero get the chance?”

    April 2012 at the absolute latest. Probably 9 or 10 months sooner.

  92. blake March 28th, 2011 at 1:28 pm

    I think Montero will be up soon after his bats heats up at SWB

  93. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:30 pm

    I for one am extremely gratified the Lohud scaredy cat/whiner inverse-voodoo effect has almost certainly guaranteed Molina will be hitting .425 with a handful of doubles and thrown-out baserunners by the time Cervelli is ready to come back.

    There are fewer surer things in life than the opposite of what the bridgejumpers are frightened of this minute will actually come to pass.

  94. BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:31 pm

    tyanks – Well, that really wasn’t the point of my post – that we may need Montero to win games for us. However, every batter in the lineup matters, even the 9 hitter, so it matter when you have a pitcher, or Molina, hitting.

    jacksquat That’s fair, waiting for Cervelli. But Cervelli has limited ability, while Montero is the whole package. Id just like to see the Montero hype turn into reality. And not see non major leaguers like Molina and limited skill set players like Cervelli.

  95. pat March 28th, 2011 at 1:32 pm

    “….. he looks for catchers that can “catch” as the backup.”

    A catcher who can catch and hit is a starting catcher.

    A catcher who can catch but can’t hit is a back-up catcher.

    A catcher who can hit but can’t catch is a DH or PH.

  96. yankeefeminista March 28th, 2011 at 1:32 pm

    # tyanksfan36 March 28th, 2011 at 1:22 pm

    Ugh so here I sit at my internship a mere 15 minutes away from the minor league complex where Cano, Montero etc. Are playing intrasquad games. If I didn’t have to go pick up the kids from recess in 10 minutes I would cry.
    ______
    Pobresita! I commiserate. :( Maybe it’s high time the kiddies go on a little baseball excursion? ;)

    I am heading to lunch.

  97. tampayank March 28th, 2011 at 1:33 pm

    a reason to root for Kentucky to win the Final 4?

    1949, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1996 and 1998. The last 6 times Kentucky has won a title the Yankees have as well

  98. BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:36 pm

    My point of “catch” was, can Molina even catch?? Other than caught stealing % and thrown out baserunners, what other way is there to quantify Molina’s supposed catching ability?

  99. BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:37 pm

    Cervelli could “catch” and then last season, he played like garbage and couldn’t “catch” worth a lick.

  100. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:39 pm

    So the theory is the former back-up catcher manager and former star catcher bench coach not only lean to someone with defensive credentials as their BUC, but may have selected somebody with no actual defensive credentials?

    Man, some fans REALLY think Joe Girardi is an idiot…

  101. CB March 28th, 2011 at 1:44 pm

    The most extensive set of statistical projections done by anyone in baseball are the Diamond Mind Projections SG at the Replacement Level Yankees Blog does. It’s a composite set of projections that synthesizes the findings from the other individual modelling systems (e.g. merges PECOTA with Bill James with Marcel, etc.)

    He just posted these composite projections:

    Red Sox –
    Average number of wins: 94
    Probability for Winning the AL East: 42%

    Yankees -
    Average number of wins: 92
    Probability for Winning the AL East: 33%

    Those are the two highest win projections in baseball. The four aces Phillies – 91 wins. And I believe that’s with Utley playing.

  102. West Coast Yankee Fan March 28th, 2011 at 1:44 pm

    I can’t think of anything less important to worry about than Molina being the backup catcher to Martin for “A FEW WEEKS”. Montero and Romine are available in an emergency as are other second string catchers around the league if necessary. If Molina affects the outcome of a single game we have other issues.

  103. LGY March 28th, 2011 at 1:46 pm

    beholdarno –that’s certainly possible, it could also be that having a backup catcher that can catch is more important than one that can hit. fairly conventional wisdom in the major leagues.

    —–

    This could be true if teams actually had a choice in the matter. But since it is nearly impossible to find a backup catcher that can hit, it is really a matter or circumstance, not conventional wisdom

  104. mick March 28th, 2011 at 1:46 pm

    Aceves and Okojima sent down.

  105. Doreen March 28th, 2011 at 1:47 pm

    tyanksfan36 -

    I have an answer for you: “Sarah Smile.”

    (Enjoyed your blog post)

  106. LGY March 28th, 2011 at 1:47 pm

    I was actually just about to post that CB :)

  107. pat March 28th, 2011 at 1:47 pm

    Just saw Aceves to open the season at Pawtucket. That’s gotta be a bummer for him.

  108. jacksquat March 28th, 2011 at 1:48 pm

    BeholdArNo March 28th, 2011 at 1:31 pm

    jacksquat That’s fair, waiting for Cervelli. But Cervelli has limited ability, while Montero is the whole package. Id just like to see the Montero hype turn into reality. And not see non major leaguers like Molina and limited skill set players like Cervelli.

    I’d rather see Martin and Montero split time 50/50 or 60/40, but the Yankees are usually pretty conservative bringing up prospects for significant roles. And Girardi and Pena being more defensive than offensive catchers when they played probably means they will probably overvalue catcher defense and not value what Montero could do offensively as much.

  109. blake March 28th, 2011 at 1:49 pm

    4 aces, mediocre lineup, and potentially bad bullpen.

    CB,

    What’s your take on the Montero situation?

  110. LGY March 28th, 2011 at 1:50 pm

    Is Montero being sent down because he needs to play everyday or because he is not a passable catcher?

    For those that think he is not passable is a little more time at AAA really going to change that in any significant way? Especially those saying we will see him in a month or two?

  111. Erica in NY March 28th, 2011 at 1:50 pm

    Doreen March 28th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
    tyanksfan36 -

    I have an answer for you: “Sarah Smile.”

    *****************

    Is it time to start quoting Hall & Oates??!?!?

  112. mick March 28th, 2011 at 1:50 pm

    You can bet that if Martin doesn’t produce and Montero mashes , he will be up by the All Star break with more than a 60/40 split.

    That is, Martin will be backing up Montero.

  113. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:51 pm

    CB,

    That now out there, I’d like to see some historical track record of the composite projects.

    Are projections even really worth a damn?

    I gotta imagine the projections took a beating with Texas and SF being there at the end…

  114. jacksquat March 28th, 2011 at 1:51 pm

    stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
    So the theory is the former back-up catcher manager and former star catcher bench coach not only lean to someone with defensive credentials as their BUC, but may have selected somebody with no actual defensive credentials?

    Man, some fans REALLY think Joe Girardi is an idiot…

    Like I said (not what you read apparently), I think the primary factor is the fact that Molina is on the 40-man roster and they have decided that *Cervelli* (

  115. mick March 28th, 2011 at 1:52 pm

    LGY

    Is it possible Montero just didn’t earn the BUC job?

  116. jacksquat March 28th, 2011 at 1:52 pm

    stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
    So the theory is the former back-up catcher manager and former star catcher bench coach not only lean to someone with defensive credentials as their BUC, but may have selected somebody with no actual defensive credentials?

    Man, some fans REALLY think Joe Girardi is an idiot…

    Like I said (not what you read apparently), I think the primary factor is the fact that Molina is on the 40-man roster and they have decided that *Cervelli* (not Molina) is better than Montero.

  117. Betsy March 28th, 2011 at 1:53 pm

    I’m unwilling to pass judgment on Jones until we see some of what he can or can’t do once the regular season begins. I’ve seen way too many veterans struggle in ST only to hit their stride when the games start to count.

  118. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:54 pm

    “Is Montero being sent down because he needs to play everyday or because he is not a passable catcher?”

    IMO, neither.

    I think his is being sent down to give him the best possible opportunity to get his year started on a positive note.

    Understand that IMO is coming from the guy a week and 1/2 ahead of anyone in the nation media, the beat writers, or this forum on Montero not going north.

    :-)

  119. Betsy March 28th, 2011 at 1:55 pm

    I don’t believe in projections – PECOTA or what have you.

  120. mick March 28th, 2011 at 1:55 pm

    I don’t think they send Montero down if he tore up ST which, in fact, they wanted him to do.

  121. stuckey99 March 28th, 2011 at 1:55 pm

    “I’m unwilling to pass judgment on Jones until we see some of what he can or can’t do once the regular season begins. I’ve seen way too many veterans struggle in ST only to hit their stride when the games start to count.”

    I’m often a critic so let me be fair and say this is spot on.

  122. CB March 28th, 2011 at 1:56 pm

    blake-

    I honestly don’t see how this is a big deal in any way.

    I love Montero. I’ve followed him since he signed when he was 16.

    I can see a legitimate reason for wanting him on the 25 man roster. But I can also see a very reasonable argument for sending him to AAA.

    Most often complex decisions require difficult trade offs that are dependent on what utilities one wants to maximize. All organizations have to do this. Baseball organizations aren’t exempt. Instead people try to make out the Montero situation as if it’s just clear what should be done based on “facts” as if there are only incontrovertible facts that they have marshaled which make them completely correct with no flip side.

    On the whole, I would also send him to AAA to start the season.

    My sense going into Spring training was that he should start the season in AAA and then get the call up when he was locked in and his stroke was dialed in. With Cervelli going down I do think it opened up an accelerated opportunity.

    But he was clearly pressing in order to get the call now – and he was pressing both at the plate and with the glove.

    He’s 21. Let him get his foundation for the season off to a strong start at AAA against pitching he has already crushed.

  123. mick March 28th, 2011 at 1:58 pm

    Perhaps Montero eased up when Cervelli went down, thinking the job was his?

  124. blake March 28th, 2011 at 2:00 pm

    CB,

    thanks…..im fine either way. I was hoping he would make the team but understand why if he doesn’t……getting that extra year of control is a nice side benefit for sending him down as well.

  125. mick March 28th, 2011 at 2:05 pm

    NEW===>

  126. Erica in NY March 28th, 2011 at 2:06 pm

    :arrow:

  127. Bronx Jeers March 28th, 2011 at 2:06 pm

    Sox 94 wins & Yanks 92 ?

    This seems plausible. It’s certainly in the neighborhood.

    Commence………………………………STRESS!!!!

    Every win counts! Thursday is a must win!

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