Yankees lineup
Posted by: Brian Heyman - Posted in Misc on May 01, 2011 
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1. Jeter SS
2. Granderson CF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Posada DH
8. Gardner LF
9. Cervelli C
Nova P
If Nova keeps his pitches low in the strike zone and the hitters hit, this should be a good Sunday in the Bronx.
King Felix vs. Wakefield in Beansville looks like a sweep for the Mariners.
The Rays need to cool down a little and the Orioles need to keep winning to keep Buston in the cellar where they belong.
Baseball is a funny game 108 and everytime something looks easy, it seems we get surprised. Todays boston/seattle game seems like one of those.
randy
My point is that although a pitcher/catcher may want to consistently throw the ball inside in the situation you described, quite a few may be just as likely to make a mistake and leave the ball out over the plate. So command determines whether or not the strategy will be effective.
I like Granderson at or near the top of the lineup.
Now there’s 4 sure outs, Jeter, Posada, Gardy, and Cervelli. instead of the usual 3.
I like Granderson at or near the top of the lineup.
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The more he hits leftys, the more he will stay up there.
He is a versatile hitter like Swisher but like his speed better at top of lineup.
“… So command determines whether or not the strategy will be effective.”
rich in nj-
thanks for explaining.
i totally agree with what you say. if a pitcher has really good command and is smart he can be very effective whatever kind of stuff he has.
in the gonzalez example up and in is the only safe spot because he’s such a dangerous hitter. in the dirt works but that means having a very good catcher . of course gonzalez has good plate discipline and may not swing at the up and in pitch.
low and away would have to to be really away or just out enough that gonzalez couldn’t hit it hard. like the way maddox and glavine used to pitch. but they had great command as you say.
” King Felix vs. Wakefield in Beansville looks like a sweep for the Mariners. ”
You know what they say about Expectation and Reality .
I predict the R*d S*x will hammer Felix today , and Wakefield will pitch a gem .
R*d S*x will win 12 – 1 .
Book it .
.
During one of the games last night, though I don’t remember if it was commentary from MLB network or the Boston commentators, they talked about pitching inside to dangerous hitters.
They were saying that even pitchers who have very good control and command would have a hard time repeating that pitch multiple times to the same batter without making a mistake. I can see that. The degree of error is fairly small, just a couple of inches.
timmyb72 says:
May 1, 2011 at 10:29 am
Now there’s 4 sure outs, Jeter, Posada, Gardy, and Cervelli. instead of the usual 3.
———
Jeter is 9 for his last 28 – .321.
Gardner is 7 for his last 22 – .318.
Posada has only given the Yankees 13 years of consistent offense, so why give him more than a month to come around, right?
And Cervelli is making his first start of 2011.
The only automatic I see here is your off-the-wall posts.
Posada – Gardner – Cervelli oh boy.
They will probably go 6-12
“The Braves could look to trade Derek Lowe even if they’re still in the playoff hunt, according to a scout who follows the team. Ken Davidoff of Newsday says the Yankees, who “negotiated seriously” with Lowe when he was a free agent, would be an obvious candidate to kick the tires on the right-hander if he’s available.” – MLBTR
One thing that NY needs to do for sure is pitch Bautista differently. NYY needs to either knock him off the plate, give him crap in the dirt or off the outside corner.
He does not miss fastballs anywhere near the plate. I am tired of seeing this play out over the LF field fence. It is ridiculous.
Bautista has killed NYY the last two years. I thought and hoped Rothschild would make an objective for this but to this point, although he may have stressed a different approach then Eiland, there has been no difference in results.
The First Place Rays May 1st, 2011 at 10:39 am
” King Felix vs. Wakefield in Beansville looks like a sweep for the Mariners. ”
You know what they say about Expectation and Reality .
I predict the R*d S*x will hammer Felix today , and Wakefield will pitch a gem .
R*d S*x will win 12 – 1 .
Book it .
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I’ll take the odds of King Felix against a sleeping Buston lineup. His last outing wasn’t good. He has incentive pitching his team to a sweep.
Today the Rays have a rookie pitcher (Alex Cobb) pitching his 1st big league game against Pavano.
Johnny Damon in his career man on 3rd less than 2 out
Hit, walk, IBB, HBP, sac bunt, sac fly, reached on error:
59% success rate.
yankee21 May 1st, 2011 at 11:09 am
One thing that NY needs to do for sure is pitch Bautista differently. NYY needs to either knock him off the plate, give him crap in the dirt or off the outside corner.
*************
How about not pitching to him?
Jose Bautista 2010:
71% success rate
“They were saying that even pitchers who have very good control and command would have a hard time repeating that pitch multiple times to the same batter without making a mistake. I can see that. The degree of error is fairly small, just a couple of inches.”
yogi mantle-
yes, it’s not easy to do , but that’s why the good ones are the good ones.
mussina had that twenty game finish when he was ordered to pitch up and in more by girardi and eiland or go to the bullpen in a meeting before the season began.
a pitcher really has to throw everything but the kitchen sink against a good hitter. command as rich said is crucial. the ability to change speed is huge. three or more pitches helps. and 96mph doesn’t hurt
the conversation started last night about situational hitting, but it’s easy to see that a pitcher has to be an even better pitcher if he’s going to beat a good situational hitter.
this leads to the conclusion there must be good situational pitchers.
Actually, I think this is good news for the Red Sox.
Hernandez vs. Wakefield = reverse lock.
“You know, Suzyn….”
LGY, impressive stat for Damon. Great hitter in the clutch.
some here say there is no such thing as clutch
mick says:
May 1, 2011 at 11:22 am
some here say there is no such thing as clutch
———-
Is that so?! Then my eyes deceive me.
clutch is in the eye of the beholder
“a hitter like alex can’t hit a ball down the right field line on command, but he can increase the probability he will hit a ground ball up the middle when he chooses too. as a matter of fact when he turned his post season stats around that was exactly what he was doing going into the playoffs.”
—————–
2009 playoffs:
19 hits.
Only 8 were singles.
32% of his hits were HR.
About clutch hitting, I remember Earl Weaver once saying about Regfie Jackson, if he treated every at bat like it was the 9th inning of a game, he might hit .400.
A bit of an overstatement maybe. But I SAW his point.
“Johnny Damon in his career man on 3rd less than 2 out
Hit, walk, IBB, HBP, sac bunt, sac fly, reached on error:
59% success rate.”
lgy-
i agree it’s a probability game.
last night you said”Players go up to the plate looking for a pitch they can drive and the plan is to hit the ball hard.
You can’t guide a groundball through a hole, or choose to hit a semi deep fly ball to get a sac fly, you can’t choose to bloop a single somewhere, etc.”
some hitters do decide where to hit the ball. though he wants to drive the ball you can see adrian gonzalez clearly says where he wants to hit the ball:
““I should have hit the ball off the left-field fence,’’ he said. “Up and away fastball, I was out in front of it. That’s a ball I drive to left field. It’s not bad luck that I hit it right at him. I should have backed it up a little more and driven it to left the way I know how to do. It’s those little things we’ve got to do better.’’
i agree that most hitters do not do this and hit the way you say. i also think this is a reason why adrian gonzalez is a much better hitter than most of these players who just swing hard and do not care where they hit the ball.
the way you are advocating is consistent with your sabermetric beliefs . it is consistent that you don’t think a hitter can increase the probability to where the ball will go. we just happen to disagree. adrian gonzalez disagrees with you too though as a sabermetrician you love his stats.
it just seems that you don’t understand how he gets them.
as an aside , i appreciate the fact that although we have a different baseball position, at least we are talking baseball. this blog needs more of it.
Jason Giambi
69% success rate
2009 playoffs:
19 hits.
Only 8 were singles.
32% of his hits were HR.
===================
With that rate of success, he would have to be clutch by default.
May be why, not so great hitters get the clutch label and great hitters are assumed so.
Hideki Matsui
61% success rate
BTW, iirc Earl said that about Reggie BEFORE he joined the Yankees. Or at least around the time he signed with them.
seems like 60-70% is the norm
randy,
I do agree that hitters can make the decision to try to hit the ball to an area of the field.
Part of going up to the plate and looking to drive the ball is finding the right pitch. You are not often going to drive certain pitches unless you take the correct approach at the plate.
“About clutch hitting, I remember Earl Weaver once saying about Regfie Jackson, if he treated every at bat like it was the 9th inning of a game, he might hit .400.”
AldotheApache-
i remember at batting practice once at yankee stadium watching reggie start hitting balls down the left filed line and then move each hit ball a little towards left field until after about ten swings he finally reached the right filed line.
reggie could control the bat and hit the bal where he wanted when he wanted to. it was part of the reason he was a clutch player.
again , just more clutch. it’s a probability game.
Hit, walk, IBB, HBP, sac bunt, sac fly, reached on error:
=====================
how about % of getting the runner home?
or % of just hit, sac fly?
Look at Bautista’s numbers, both this season and last season.
The Yanks obviously aren’t the only team having a hard time getting him out.
rather “then move each hit ball a little towards right field until after about ten swings he finally reached the right filed line “
“seems like 60-70% is the norm”
—————
52% was the AL League Average in 2010
Part of going up to the plate and looking to drive the ball is finding the right pitch.
===================
Hit it where it’s pitched–One of the Commandments of Baseball.
mick,
For which player?
What did Bautista find in the last 2 years to elevate his game?
mick,
For which player?
============
any of the ones you mention.
seems like that would indicate more clutchitude than walks or errors
I think the problem with just including a hit or sac fly as a “success” is that you are penalizing a player for doing something good like walking or even doing something out of his control like getting hit by a pitch or being intentional walked.
If you include only hits, sac flies, or sac bunts the AL League Average drops to only 36%
for 2010 that is.
It may be reaching the time of keeping Jorge out of the DH slot for a game or two each week.
It’s not like the team lacks the players to use at DH with all the flexability on the bench.
being walked could be a function of who the on deck batter is.
making contact to drive in the run could also be unintentional or lucky but if done consistently
could be the residue of design.
sac bunts with runner on 3rd could be suicide
It may be reaching the time of keeping Jorge out of the DH slot for a game or two each week.
=============================
maybe against leftys
what would some of the other commandments of baseball be?
why take a 3-0 pitch if its always a very hittable strike?
randy l, I saw something similar with Reggie at the Stadium. Pitchers had been regularly pitching him on the outside part of the plate with some success, inducing harmless groundouts as he tried to pull the ball. I saw him hitting the ball to left in batting practice, one after another.
Sure enough, in the game, he homered to left.
Another time, I was watching a game on tv against the Brewers. In a close game, a big pitcher named Pete Vukovich (?) put Reggie on his back with a hard high inside pitch. Reggie got up and glared at him, as he dusted himself off. He then hit one into the RF bleachers, Munson scoring ahead of him. The moment he stepped on the plate, he charged the mound and put Vukovich in a headlock, starting a brawl.
In tense moments, Reggie was clutch. He had something stats can’t measure.
“”Mick says:
May 1, 2011 at 11:40 am
What did Bautista find in the last 2 years to elevate his game?”"
If he continues this I wonder if any other player has had a renewal like his in history?? Especially in this PED testing era??
reggie was the epitome of clutch
brady anderson had a year like this, even davey johnson had a huge increase to 40+ hrs but i wouldn’t be surprised if this guy is using
“I do agree that hitters can make the decision to try to hit the ball to an area of the field.”
lgy-
i’m glad we agree then. i must have misunderstood the discussion last night on situational hitting .
perhaps i was lumping your position with jerkfaces .
glad we cleared that up.
you know one hitter who had success just letting it rip on every pitch was greg nettles. he took the approach that three run homers were what it was all about. to me he was the exception to the rule of what i like in a hitter.
it worked for him.
The time to bench Posada may be approaching.
But it’s not here yet. Not one month into the season, after he’s given this team 12 years or so of solid offense.
These are not the Red Sox.
Bautista is on his way to getting the Bonds treatment. Why let him even swing in a close game?
reggie had a lifetime .262 ba which may have heightened his clutchitude
but when you hit them on the big stage it is magnified
which is why clutch is in the eye of the beholder
numbers seem to demystify it
Abe Peterham May 1st, 2011 at 11:52 am
“”Mick says:
May 1, 2011 at 11:40 am
What did Bautista find in the last 2 years to elevate his game?””
If he continues this I wonder if any other player has had a renewal like his in history?? Especially in this PED testing era??
_______
Beginning in the 2010 season, Bautista changed his stance and altered his swing mechanics.
You know Brady Anderson was using, and he only hit 50 once..
I’ve often wondered why take a 3-0 pitch too..
Unless you’re afraid to swing in t ball..
randy
We kind of agree in part and disagree in part.
I agree that players try to hit the ball to certain areas of the field.
I believe we disagree as to how accurate they are.
I also think that many successful hitters will just lay of pitches instead of taking the ball the other way and instead wait for the pitch they can pull and then pull the trigger.
I’m betting Bautista is a fan of Booster Juice.
# yankeefeminista May 1st, 2011 at 11:58 am
Abe Peterham May 1st, 2011 at 11:52 am
“”Mick says:
May 1, 2011 at 11:40 am
What did Bautista find in the last 2 years to elevate his game?””
If he continues this I wonder if any other player has had a renewal like his in history?? Especially in this PED testing era??
_______
Beginning in the 2010 season, Bautista changed his stance and altered his swing mechanics.
———————————————————————————-
I’m pretty sure he changed his swing in Sept of 09, his HR’s since then are off the charts.
I’m assuming the testing for PEDs are pretty good now?
I know no HGH testing etc,, why didn’t manny just use HgH? It on it’s own isn’t good enough?
Than how is Batista and pujohls getting away w it
Beginning in the 2010 season, Bautista changed his stance and altered his swing mechanics.
===============
As have many others.
Tar May 1st, 2011 at 10:17 am
Randy
Good info thanks. Tony Gwynn was another example of a surgeon with the bat.
_______________
And yet, there are multiple malpractice suits against him for faulty eye operations.
as long as it doesn’t become an epidemic there will be no outcry about usage
Abe Peterham says:
May 1, 2011 at 11:58 am
I’ve often wondered why take a 3-0 pitch too..
Unless you’re afraid to swing in t ball..
———–
Swinging at a 3-0 pitch is a double edged sword.
If it’s in your wheelhouse and you can drive it, great.
If it’s not, and you pop it up on 3-0, you look foolish and impatient and a few other things.
Mike_Boston May 1st, 2011 at 12:00 pm
# yankeefeminista May 1st, 2011 at 11:58 am
Abe Peterham May 1st, 2011 at 11:52 am
“”Mick says:
May 1, 2011 at 11:40 am
What did Bautista find in the last 2 years to elevate his game?””
If he continues this I wonder if any other player has had a renewal like his in history?? Especially in this PED testing era??
_______
Beginning in the 2010 season, Bautista changed his stance and altered his swing mechanics.
———————————————————————————-
I’m pretty sure he changed his swing in Sept of 09, his HR’s since then are off the charts.
_____
I am pretty sure his leg kick in 2009 was the “old” version. I don’t believe he changed it and made the other adjustments, closer to plate, etc. until 2010.
Bautista’s outfield play is also 1st rate. He always seems to be in the correct placement for making a play and his arm is above average.
Many say his improved bat speed is a big factor in his power surge.
% wise , a 3-0 pitch is usually a strike on the fat part of the plate….maybe Randy can shed some light on why mgrs don’t give the swing sign more often?
Bautista’s outfield play is also 1st rate.
=========================
He also plays 3rd and LF and has a gun.
MVP in his future.
I’m not going to impute PED usage to Bautista. I’m willing to believe that some combination of altered hitting mechanics, thought process at the plate, strength training, and perhaps even a vision enhancement have combined to transform his career at baseball middle-age. But I don’t think he will remain at this level for very long.
As for directing the ball, you can try to hit the ball on the ground or in the air; you can pull or inside-out a pitch; you can shorten your swing; or you can swing from the heels.
In very limited situations, that may be a useful approach (assuming it’s different than what you normally do), but over time, hitters are best-served by hitting the ball hard where it’s pitched because it’s the best way to hit line drives, and most hits are the product of line drives.
mick says:
May 1, 2011 at 12:06 pm
% wise , a 3-0 pitch is usually a strike on the fat part of the plate….maybe Randy can shed some light on why mgrs don’t give the swing sign more often?
———–
How about, what advantage do you have at 3-0 that you don’t have at 3-1?
Unless you have a lead and a hot hitter up, I say make him throw a strike.
How about, what advantage do you have at 3-0 that you don’t have at 3-1?
================================
3-0 is usually right down the middle moreso than 3-1
yankeefem
were you able to make it to the Trenton game last night?
Feature on KLong on YES; he’s talking about his book, Cage Rat.
Dating back to September 1 of 2009 he’s hitting .270 with 72 homers, 132 walks, and a 1.016 OPS in 208 games, so anyone calling it a “fluke season” should probably at least do Bautista the favor of calling it a “fluke season-and-a-half” at this point.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports......-8-homers/
if a few more guys started putting up bautista #’s or even one a la McGwire/Sosa would Bud wake up?
Why don’t those Oakland A’s teams of the 70s get more notoriety?
They won 3 World Series in a row, yet the 70s is all about the Big Red Machine and the Bronx Zoo.
They may be the most inconspicuous dynasty in baseball history….
tyanksfan36 May 1st, 2011 at 12:13 pm
yankeefem
were you able to make it to the Trenton game last night?
______
Yes, Manny looked good. As usual toyed with hitters. Sat 93, topped out at 94. His command was very slightly off, but pitched well. He said he felt strong even though he was on a pitch count, around 85 pitches. He should be able to go 100 pitches next game. Suttle continues to impress and hit a shot into the night & Corban has been so consistent and has been an RBI machine.
lol, I made up for lost time and went to 4 minor league games in 5 days this week; I drove probably 400 miles this week.
Jays:
Davis CF
Escobar SS
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
Rivera LF
Arencibia C
Cooper DH
Encarnacion 3B
McDonald 2B
Litsch P
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