The familiar lesson of postseason baseball
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 17, 2011 
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When I was watching the game last night, I couldn’t help thinking about Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, and the timing of their free agency.
Reading the coverage this morning, I couldn’t help thinking about the Yankees, and the timing of their early postseason exit.
At no point this season did the Cardinals look like the best team in the National League. Even when they were winning all of those games in September, making a sudden push for the postseason, they were clearly behind the Phillies and the Brewers in terms of pennant favorites.
Then the Cardinals beat both the Phillies and the Brewers. The Cardinals beat two teams that seemed to have better rotations — isn’t that all that matters in the postseason? — and seemed to have deeper lineups. The Cardinals won the NLCS without a single starting pitcher lasting more than five innings. They won it with their ace on the disabled list (Adam Wainwright), their second baseman suddenly sidelined (Skip Schumaker) and their Opening Day center fielder in Toronto (Colby Rasmus). Their winning pitcher last night was Marc Rzepczynski, who I don’t remember ever seeing pitch particularly well when he was with the Blue Jays.
Give credit wherever you want — great bullpen management by Tony LaRussa, a lineup getting fairly healthy, roster pieces finally falling into place, a lucky squirrel — the bottom line is that the Cardinals played well at the right time. They got some big hits and some big outs, and they’re going to the World Series.
The Yankees did not do that.
Teams are built to win through a 162-game season, but winning in the playoffs is all about timing. The Cardinals learned that fun way. The Yankees learned it the hard way.
Very true.
Winning the WS is harder than its ever been……there are no guarantees…..you build a team to win your division and then hope that team plays well enough for 3 weeks in October…..that’s all you can do.
Great post Chad
” the bottom line is that the Cardinals played well at the right time. They got some big hits and some big outs, and they’re going to the World Series.
The Yankees did not do that.
Teams are built to win through a 162-game season, but winning in the playoffs is all about timing. The Cardinals learned that fun way. The Yankees learned it the hard way. ”
YES
I want to go back to the balanced schedule. I will definitely believe more in the fairness of the game if that happens.
Let the Yankees rest up by playing the AL Central and West as much as they do the AL East.
I’ll show you timely hitting in the postseason!
and seemed to have deeper lineups
———-
Shows that the Yankees do not *have to* sign CC at any cost, if his demands are too high.
IMO more than one additional year at about the same AAV would be too much. I don’t want big money being promised much past 35 years of age anymore.
Managing is different for the postseason too. Bruce Bochy did a hell of a job last year to prove that point.
It will only get worse the more wild card teams they add
The Brewers arguably had a better lineup than the Cards……but the Phillies scored less runs than the Mets this year…..their lineup is way overated.
One thing that’ll hurt the Cards in the WS is that Berkman will have to hit RHed a lot.
“It will only get worse the more wild card teams they add”
Stupid revenue-hungry asses = MLB
“It will only get worse the more wild card teams they add”
Eh…..I think you’ll actually start to see the better teams make it farther……because they’ll actually have an advantage. The WC teams will be weakened
Eh?..I think you?ll actually start to see the better teams make it farther??because they?ll actually have an advantage. The WC teams will be weakened
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That is assuming they will stop at 2 wild card teams
If the system that’s coming had a been in place this year……
The Yankees would have played the winner of a play in game/series between Boston and Tampa.
Actually I think it’ll be better if there are 2 W/C in each league and they play each other 2-of-3. That’s make being a division winner more significant than it is now
Yes….I want winning the division to mean something again and give that team an advantage.
I’d like to see two big-ass leagues – AL and NL. Let the winners of each play each other.
A novel idea!
“I’d like to see two big-ass leagues – AL and NL. Let the winners of each play each other.”
That would maximize the Yankees chances at winning the WS every year…..but it would cost MLB millions and it would put most teams out of contention by August. They want more teams with a chance in September…..
Hello GB!
I was posting about how the Yanks could add a Pujols or Fielder & not necessarily that they would. I do however believe they would if Boston got in the mix for one of them and perhaps even if Texas did.
The Yanks could afford the contracts & could make either work. My money is on Pujols going to the Cubs & Fielder signing with either St Louis, Toronto or Baltimore.
My question is this. If Boston signed Pujols to play 3B or Fielder as a DH, what would the Yanks do? I can’t believe it would be nothing.
“My question is this. If Boston signed Pujols to play 3B or Fielder as a DH, what would the Yanks do? I can’t believe it would be nothing.”
Pujols wouldn’t sign anywhere to play 3B…..I think maybe they get involved on Fielder to DH…..but if they do that they can go ahead and plan on paying luxury tax in the future…
Joba_62 60 ft 50 throws today! Went great. 1 step closer to getting back on the bump! Thanks for all the support
blake October 17th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Did Pujols say he wouldn’t play 3B? He played 3B some this year.
Congrats on the Cards, Chad.
I hope you find time to put your “fan hat” on and enjoy the series.
——–
Who is everybody rooting for? I say screw Texas.
86w183 October 17th, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Actually I think it’ll be better if there are 2 W/C in each league and they play each other 2-of-3. That’s make being a division winner more significant than it is now
+++++++++++
The trouble with this, even if they don’t get days off in between, is it makes the division winning teams sit for 4 days.
The talk is that it would be a one game play in, which I think is better.
I personally favor going to a balanced schedule, WC plays best record team, without regard to them being in the same division.
The balanced schedule also helps with making the MVP and Cy Young a more even contest. If a player or pitcher is in a weak division, it can pad their stats, if in a tough division it hurts their stats. There is nothing in place that is used to even it out currently.
There will also be more inter-league play which I’m not wild about.
The playoffs should also be where all the rounds, except for the WC game, are best of 7. They can take away 2 games from the regular schedule (they won’t be missed) to give the playoffs the days needed.
I never understood the reasoning that went on with making the first round best of 5.
How true. Teams are built to win 60% of the time in a 162 game season. There will be ups and downs. You hope you’re on the up when you enter the postseason.
That’s why with each new level of playoffs, the WS winner gets more and more distributed. This is something that George Steinbrenner, with his emphasis on winning the WS every year, did not quite get.
Before 1969, you won the 162 game season and went to the WS. That’s why from 1921-1969 (48 years) the Yankees made the WS 31 times, and won 21 times. In those years, the teams that were built for 162 games (or 154 games–a better idea, by the way) generally were in the WS.
Since 1969, it has been much harder for teams to make the WS, unless the team is so dominant it doesn’t matter. That’s why the 98-00 Yankees, specifically the 98 Yankees, were likely the best team of all time (sorry 75 Reds, you only had two rounds to go through).
With modern scouting, modern sabermetrics, and the internet with it’s promise of a more level playing field of information, the dominance of one team is likely a thing of the past.
Yankee $$$ will always buy a playoff birth. As Yankee fans, we need to get used to the fact that it may not buy a WS every year. That’s the nature of modern baseball.
Ray,
He played 3B like a couple of times this yead on an emergency basis…..at 31 and a history of arm problems I doubt he or his agent would really like moving to a more demanding position when he’s a really good defensive 1B. I just don’t see that happening…..a lot of teams would love to have him play 1B.
Bronx Jeers- I can’t stand Texas, so I’ll root for the Cardinals. I doubt I’ll watch very much of it though. lol
“With modern scouting, modern sabermetrics, and the internet with it’s promise of a more level playing field of information, the dominance of one team is likely a thing of the past.”
And revenue sharing and new stadiums…..
“Who is everybody rooting for? I say screw Texas.”
Major league DITTO!
Lester thinks the Red sox needs a veteran presence. I wasn’t aware that they were loaded with players that still have their baby teeth.
http://www.boston.com/sports/b....._spea.html
What I think they can/should do is this:
2 W/C play best 2-of-3 with the winner facing the # 1 seed
W/C winner gets just one home game in the LDS — G 3
# 1 seed gets to play Thursday against a team that has played 2 or 3 games while the # 1 seed can set up its pitching
blake October 17th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
RSox have a ton of money coming off the board now. (Ortiz $12.5M, Drew $14M, Cameron $7.75M, Varitek $2.0M, Wakefield $2.0M, & others) (Note Papelbon $12.0M does too, but may be resigned. Also, Dice-K’s $10.3M comes off after 2012.)
So I don’t think it boils down to Luxury taxes as much as one might think.
I think the baseball playoffs should be more like football. The team with the best 162 game record gets a bye to the ALCS or NLCS. That would make winning the regular season mean something again.
Something like this:
Balanced schedule.
2 WC.
3 Division Winners.
Best of AL and NL get byes to the CS.
2 WC plays the lower 2 division winners in one game playoff.
One game playoff winners play each other in best of 7.
Winner plays the best record team for the ALCS/NLCS.
This gets back to the pre-1969 days of needing to “win the pennant” in a 162 game season but allows enough extra teams in the mix to expand playoff excitement in more cities.
Sure, you’d have to sit your pitching, but most teams would take the tradeoff.
Pujols had 17 chances w/3 errors @ 3B this year… his first action at that position since 2002.
He’ll be a 1B, and he’ll be in St Louis. Fielder’s future is far more interesting/difficult to predict.
Ray,
They have to replace those guys though and at some point they’ll have to pay Ellsbury, Pedroria, Youkallis, the bullpen etc.
I don’t mean this yead per se……but if they signed Fielder they would have 5 big longterm contracts. That’s roughly 100 million for 5 players……
Money only really comes off if you don’t have to replace it…..or can replace it significantly cheaper. Im not surely Boston is in that situation.
Maybe the Sox get Cecil to replace Big Gloppy. Still, that would be a major contract when they really need pitching.
The Sox need a Rfer…..they need a DH……they need a closer or set up guy….and they need starting pitching…….whatever comes off they are going to have to put right back on and maybe more.
Pittsburgh Yankee -
Some good thoughts there.
The only thing is the “bye.” In baseball, it really does hurt not to play… So the advantage you get in getting to go straight to the LCS you may lose if the team you play is on a roll.
trisha – true pinstriped blue October 17th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
I’d like to see two big-ass leagues – AL and NL. Let the winners of each play each other.
===========
ECS ~
That was certainly my sentiment in 2001
Bronx Jeers- I can’t stand Texas, so I’ll root for the Cardinals. I doubt I’ll watch very much of it though. lol
————–
I’m not a big fan of La Russa (I find him creepy & and his hair bugs me
) but they’re the lesser of two evils.
The “Best” TEAM isn’t always the one with the most “talent” or names.
It’s the one that plays the best baseball at the right time.
To say a balanced schedule will solve this problem and reward the “Best” team is speculative.
Sometimes it takes a team a full season to jell into the team they are at playoff/WS time.
The Cardinal team is not exactly chopped liver.
3-7 is no picnic.
Pujols-Berkman-Holliday-Freese-and a clutch hitting Molina is no walk in the park.
1-2 and 8-pitcher are what they are supposed to be, you don’t need names down there, just set the table.
Don’t discount pitching either as the bullpens of both Texas and St. Lou are very deep.
WCS –
Jeers – absolutely feel the same way about LaRussa – creepiness, buggy hair, DUIs, and not doing anything when he found out about Rogers pine tar glove.
But lesser of two evils, agree.
I hope the cards smack the rangers.
I’ll take my chances with the balanced schedule, 24-7 and twice on a Sunday! Let’s share the joy and let everyone know the pleasures of facing the AL East more than they do.
Same in the NL. Let the NL Central take on the Phils and Bravos more.
Then I’ll be happy to go with the “speculativeness” of rewarding the best team.
St. Louis was supposed to be a contender all year. they were beset by injuries and also slow starts by Pujols and Carpenter, for two.
An argument could and should be made that by the end of the season, they were finally playing to expectations.
It may look like they are the “cinderella” type team of the year, but I don’t believe that’s true.
I would like a balanced schedule mainly because I get tired of seeing the Yankees play the same teams over and over again, of them playing a team in April and never seeing that team again, and because I do believe that over the course of the season, it is a more accurate reflection of what your team will be able to do.
No format is a guarantee of anything championship-wise however. And remember, before the Devil Rays became the Rays, people kind of liked how the Yankees got the chance to beat up on them 18 teams a year.
Chad,
Did you ever wonder if the way the Yankees stack the middle of their lineup with mistake-pitch hitters who can’t hit good pitching has something to do with their bad timing?
Is it possible that the talent out there is not capable of getting hot at the right time in the post-season because of their one-dimensional approach at the plate?
FakePeteGammons As long as #Redsox keep stating they at one point had best record in baseball in 2011 all sins will be forgiven. Not about where you finish.
FakePeteGammons When you look back at #Redsox 2011 they were really good for 3 months. There should be some kind of prize for that! This is Peter Gammons.
trisha – true pinstriped blue October 17th, 2011 at 10:37 am
I no longer want Ryan Braun.
======================
One bad night and you’re down on the Hebrew Hammer?!?
I agree regarding the balanced schedule. Under the current system you play the same teams 18 times a year. That gets old. It isn’t fair to the AL east teams. The Rays at one point were 3rd in the AL east and had the 3rd best record in the AL. How is that fair? Personally, I would rather get to see some of the players on other teams.
Chad,
That’s the opposing view and it should be open for debate. I have yet to see a website that thoroughly presents two opposing viewpoints in a fair and balanced manner. When you do that, you stimulate conversation. When you don’t, you get a one-sided argument repeated ad-nauseam.
We’re all supposed to just fall in line and dream of fairies and hope to catch leprechauns and lightening in a bottle.
It’s all luck.
Nothing ever to do with design.
Got it.
mick –
I’m fickle when it comes to players on other teams! Only steady when it comes to the Yanks.
It’s all luck.
Nothing ever to do with design.
====================
Luck is the residue of design-Branch Rickey
Mick,
Nice quote.
I wouldn’t mind a balanced schedule, why doesn’t MLB want it?
Less revenue is prolly the answer to any logical question.
Less rivalry games for starters.
Why bother making it fair, that is never an issue.
I’m fickle when it comes to players on other teams!
================================
Fickle is the word. If Ryan had a “good night” you’d still love him?
trisha – true pinstriped blue October 17th, 2011 at 11:06 am
I hate to say this again – okay, no I don’t – but in terms of the element of luck, IF we didn’t have that rainout and IF Gerry Davis called a different game – it appears likely that the Yankees would have gone on to the ALCS.
___________________________________________________________________________
Trisha I do believe in some level of luck, but more my belief that teams make their own luck. The luck of the draw always seemed to be against us. The wrong guy coming to bat in a key situation or an easy way to pitch around someone to get to the easier out. Swisher killed us, I looked at situations where either came to bat with runners on or batted in an inning where the Yanks scored runs. In 5 of those situations he struck out looking and he also had 2 foul outs. That’s 7 situations where he didn’t even put the ball in fair territory. In the other three he had a ground out, a single, and then the LO HR in Game 2.
Or the Yankees drank beer and ordered Popeye’s too much too.
Kate, absolutely. And each team gets to play each other approximately 12 times. That could set up nicely at (or towards) the beginning of a season, somewhere in the middle, and somewhere near the end.
Or something like that.
The Yanks and boston play 3x in the 1st 3 months of next season.
YankeesInk Anonymous source reveals this photo of #RedSox #GangofThree was taken by Popeye’s delivery guy arriving with order: http://pic.twitter.com/m7j9lUtZ
Pujols is an iconic player, but I can’t see anyone topping the Cards $200M pre-season offer. He is 31 and some of those years may well be similar to AROD’s last few.
Likewise for Fielder. Unless the Nats go crazy, I don’t see giving a guy built like that an 8 year deal as he will want. He has huge risk written all over his huge body.
I never saw the Yankees as likely to make the World Series. The offense was inconsistent and the starting pitching was very shallow. Their great depth helped them during the regular season, but that advantage dissipates in the post-season when the regulars get all the playing time.
Gary,
Exactly right. When there are Swish sized holes in the lineup and gaps as wide as Texas, the probability of escaping a situation and getting a big out increases for a pitcher. And that’s what happened. Without those holes there, the probability of “good timing” or “luck” increases for the Yankees. But the lineup is flawed to begin with and will generate bad luck more often than not and probabilities that don’t work in our favor.
They play KC 7x in May and Atl and Mets 6x each in June.
It is absurd!
How about those Giants! It wasn’t pretty, but those two picks by us down on our goal line were hugh, plus the last stop to take over on downs.
Nice to see Eli not give the other team any opportunities. Nice to see good Eli showup before the Bye week.
Exactly right. When there are Swish sized holes in the lineup and gaps as wide as Texas, the probability of escaping a situation and getting a big out increases for a pitcher.
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Esp when swish and tex are hitting back to back.
I live in Texas, but I am quite sick of the Rangers. Can’t stand LaRussa, but I have to pull for the Cardinals.
“Why bother making it fair, that is never an issue.”
“Fickle is the word. If Ryan had a “good night” you’d still love him?”
He needed to have the good night when he needed to. Like last night. He was pretty absent for 1/2 of the series and I was sort of okay with it. Sort of.
You know, the grass is always greener, blah blah blah.
As Dorothy said when she clicked her heels three times, “There’s no team like the Yankees.”
Mick,
Along with Arod who is the epitome of a guess-hitter.
What kind of luck can we expect from a 2012 lineup that features the exact same 4-5-6 sequence in the playoffs?
Good luck with that, front office.
Gary
that was an exciting game, especially since it all worked out in the end
Gary, it’s so tough to parse this one out. I guess there’s a little something for everyone in here. Rain out killed us, Gerry Davis killed us, Swisher killed us, Joe Girardi killed us.
I guess it just wasn’t in the cards (don’t have the energy to make a joke here).
blake October 17th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Agreed Blake! I think Beantown will get rid of Youk & pass on Papelbohn. I expect them to bring in a stick to warrant a big 2012 revival after the crash & burn of 2011.
Interesting article on the unbalanced schedule. I googled “unbalanced schedule” to try to find out the history and this was the first hit I got. Last night I was talking about it in terms of how the Yankees and other teams in the AL East are pretty spent at the end of the season because the AL East became more and more demanding as the 2000s went on and the Rays, Jays, and even Baltimore got better.
This was written in 2003, and the writer posits that the Yankees would not have made the playoffs if the schedule were balanced!
http://old.athomeplate.com/badschedule.shtml
As Dorothy said when she clicked her heels three times, “There’s no team like the Yankees.”
======================================
And the rivalry makes it all stronger.
Just an aside: I can understand how ppl have an attutude against the Yankees and relish in their defeats.
They are in the unique position of being in a salary cap free sport where they outspend others by miles and have not been able to win it all, well once in 10 years.
They are the 99%.
If they get rid of Papelbum its going to leave a big void in their pen…..
Gary, it’s so tough to parse this one out. I guess there’s a little something for everyone in here. Rain out killed us, Gerry Davis killed us, Swisher killed us, Joe Girardi killed us.
==============
Time to get over it trish. Negativity, you know, even if it’s reality, to you, let it go…if you so desire.
Alex was coming off a much better season than Pujols at 31 when he signed his contract…..Alex’s contract is bad…..but I think people sometimes forget how good he was 5 years ago…..whoever signs Albert needs to understand how quickly things can change and how quickly age or injury can grab a player.
Bret The Hitman October 17th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
Mick,
Along with Arod who is the epitome of a guess-hitter.
=================================
He guessed right in 09. Look at what that bought him.
Amnesty. The boo birds will be back as the honeymoon period is nearing a close.
In reality, next season looks like it could be more of the same.
Heck, the suits know they will make their money.
2013 could be the end of the bridge to somewhere.
“Time to get over it trish. Negativity, you know, even if it’s reality, to you, let it go…if you so desire.”
mick, that was just my response to Gary’s post.
Not a big deal.
That said, I will NEVER get over flippin’ umpires bullsh*tting their way through games and hurting teams as a result!
I like the general idea of a balanced schedule but, the travel would suck (even more than it does now) for my M’s.
I saw this interesting (and rather complicated) realignment proposal somewhere awhile back – it may have even been here, sorry if it’s a repeat…
http://tinyurl.com/64gkoox
I’ll never forget , it was Tim Tschida’s 1st game as an ump and he was umping 2nd base.
He clearly didn’t get good position on a steal call at 2nd and the replays proved that he made the wrong call against the Yanks.
The players don’t even argue as much as they used to- That’s why you can’t arghue balls and strikes, 3 hour games would become 4.
It’s easier to watch a replay and make the call right.
I don’t think it cost the Yanks the series, though.
They deserved to lose, try that on, it will make you feel better.
Everyone wants Pujols. Will you still want him at age 39-41 at $30 mil a year? That’s what it’s going to take.
Chad-Thanks for reminding me about my favorite baseball team was bounced from the playoffs early in 2011, LOL!!!
Seriously, I still am so upset the Yankees are not playing right now.
Luck was not on our side.
Pujols will expect $30M/year, for no less than 7 years.
Fielder will expect no less than $20M/year for no less than 6 years.
Glad Yanks have no interest or need for either. Montero may turn out to be comparably as productive for $450K/year for the next few years.
Chad, will you be putting together a list of Rule 5 eligibles list for NYYs?
If 4-6 hit .200 instead of .158 they would have won that game.
To be honest, we were doing the same things all season when we had the best record in baseball.” – Jon Lester
——–
Really Lester when and at what point did the Sux have the best record in Baseball.
Also, I don’t think you can compare what one beer does to you mentally or physically the same as what a Coke does.
Nope, doesn’t make me feel any better. I don’t care if games are 10 hours. Get it right.
Pitchers shouldn’t be required to get more than 27 outs in a 9-inning game.
Any more than that, someone’s messed with the game and the potential results.
And no, it doesn’t all even out. That’s a fairy tale people who aren’t bothered by unfair calls try to sell themselves and others.
Yankee needs are simple:
#2 caliber Starting pitcher who can pitch 200 innings/year for the next 2 years.
Lefty bullpen arm to supplement Logan.
Utility corner infielder with reliable glove and some pop in bat to spell ARod and Tex.
That’s it.
Men not machines.
I heard that somewhere.
Of course, their #1 priority should be to re-sign CC.
DaSaint007 October 17th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Yankee needs are simple:
#2 caliber Starting pitcher who can pitch 200 innings/year for the next 2 years.
Lefty bullpen arm to supplement Logan.
Utility corner infielder with reliable glove and some pop in bat to spell ARod and Tex.
That’s it.
************************************************************************
Nova could be that #2 starter you’re looking for. Something to consider.
Lefty arm out of the pen-Well, this past season there were several guys that could have filled that role. Not sure this is a top need.
Nunez is that utility infielder that can back up 3rd, ss and 2nd base.
Swish can back-up 1st base when needed.
The Yanks will prolly repeat the approach of 2011 and tinker here and there, maybe go for Buerhle.
They look at 2011 as a success.
This ain’t George’s Yankees anymore…
Warning Track Power,
I hear you. I was thinking more like the following:
1. CC
2. Buehrle/Garland/Kuroda type. Nova, AJ, and Hughes are variously 3, 4, and 5′s.
3. Sean Marshall/Randy Choate
4. Wilson Betemit/Ty Wiggington
Warning Track,
So is your point of view the Yankees need to do nothing in the off-season? I respect that opinion, but disagree.
I think Chavez did a great job in limited duty, but have read that he may be considering retirement, otherwise would welcome him back. Guy has always been one of the best defensive 3B ever, and did well at the plate considering his not playing consistently for so long.
One nice thing about Chavez was that he was happy not playing FT, in fact he only wanted to be a back up.
Assuming Theo ends up with the Cubs, will he and Cashman then be able to deal? I do like Sean Marshall. I think the Cubs do need to replenish their minor leagues.
I think albert is going to have a tough time getting 30 million per year….I think he is going to have to settle on either years or AAV. I say he stays with ST. Louis for 8/200
Tricia…..Prom Dress 2011 ???? E-Mail me
austinmac October 17th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Assuming Theo ends up with the Cubs, will he and Cashman then be able to deal? I do like Sean Marshall. I think the Cubs do need to replenish their minor leagues.
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That’s the question. Don’t know if they will be able to deal. Theo may want to dump salary on the Yankees as part of any deal. And the Cubs have lots of salary to be dumped.
FakePeteGammons When Rally Beers become the next big thing in little leagues & HS, you’re all going to look at 2011 #Redsox & say they were the best ever.
“Assuming Theo ends up with the Cubs, will he and Cashman then be able to deal? I do like Sean Marshall. I think the Cubs do need to replenish their minor leagues.”
I like Marshall as well….but he’s probably a guy that Theo would like to hold on to unless he gets a big offer……and I wouldn’t give a big offer.
Prince’s final moments of the 2011 season or as a Brewer
http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoff.....me-brewers
blake,
I agree, as long as the Cubs will be competitive. If not, then he’s a part not needed as they rebuild. Randy Choate is my second choice, and possibly easier to obtain.
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