Ok, here’s a post about Yu Darvish
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 22, 2011 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
Through email and in the comments, I keep getting questions about Yu Darvish. And I get it. He’s still in his mid-20s, he’s pitched well in Japan, and it’s always fun to speculate about young talent. He’s an elite prospect, and all it takes to have him is a check with a bunch of zeros. The Yankees probably have one of those folded up in a drawer somewhere.
Thing is, I don’t have strong opinions about Darvish. To me he’s another guy with a load of potential and obvious concerns about cost, experience and turning potential into big-league production. Darvish is a risk, and whether that risk is worth taking is a question for people who have seen him pitch a lot more than I have. How badly the Yankees want him is a question that can only be answered by people who have plenty of incentive to either downplay or overstate in the name of driving up or driving down the price.
Here are a few weekend thoughts on Darvish.
• Whether you mention his name or read his name, the general idea is the same: The Yankees have seen Darvish, and they like Darvish — everyone in baseball has seen Darvish and likes Darvish — the question is whether any of the Yankees decisions makers are ready to guarantee he’ll have success in the states. If he’s posted, he’s going to be expensive, and that means risk. As with every risk, no one can say for certain that it’s worth the cost.
• Kei Igawa’s name is not insignificant here. Even if the Yankees try to look past Igawa and decide the Darvish is a different sort of pitcher, a flop from Darvish would look worse because of the previous misstep with Igawa. And it’s not like Daisuke Matsuzaka emerged as an ace in Boston. There are plenty of cautionary tales here.
• Someone emailed me about the cost of signing Darvish vs. the cost of a developing organizational pitcher. With the posting fee and the guaranteed contract, Darvish is going to be considerably more expensive than an organizational arm. The Yankees have plenty of pitching talent, but if Darvish is an ace, he’s still worth those extra dollars. Again, it’s all risk/reward here.
• Expectation is that Darvish is ready to play in the States, but Darvish himself claims the one-foot-out-the-door stories are exaggerated. Darvish wrote on his personal blog that he has yet to decide whether he wants to play in America next year.
• Unless CC Sabathia reaches the open market, the top free agent starter seems to be C.J. Wilson, and he’s only been a starter for two years. He’s about to turn 31 years old, and he’s certainly not considered a can’t-miss ace, or even a can’t-miss No. 2. Does the lack of a true No. 1 on the market affect Darvish’s value? Of course it does. It does not, however, take away the risk of signing him. John Lackey looked like the best starting pitcher on the market two years ago. How’s that deal working out for the Red Sox? Just because a player is the best available doesn’t mean he’s worth a massive contract.
• Fair point by the guys over at River Ave. Blues: The Yankees have money, and that’s all it costs to get Darvish. If money is the Yankees best offseason advantage, then they should leverage that advantage in a situation like this. If any team can afford such a risk, it’s probably the Yankees.
• No matter what, Darvish can’t be seen as a replacement for Sabathia. No pitcher is a sure thing, but Sabathia has a big league track record, and it’s that track record that makes him so valuable. Even if the Yankees go after Darvish and break the bank to get him, he certainly wouldn’t provide the same level of top-of-the-rotation comfort that comes from Sabathia. Darvish might have ace-like stuff, but he has to be thought of as a secondary piece right now.
Associated Press photo
MTU,
Danks and Hughes are fairly comparable in talent IMHO but one is a lefty and he’s also more proven. As much as some fans want to cling to Hughes and hope for a rebound, he’s 2 years away from free agency himself. He’s really not in the long-term plans of the rotation no more than Joba is in the long term plans for the bullpen. These guys are most likely on their way out.
I don’t think the White Sox would want 2 years of Hughes for 1 year of Danks mostly because they can get a better return on the trade market for Danks. They can use Danks to fill needs long term.
Danks might even cost Hughes + Nunez + Cervelli.
I still do that deal.
Trader,
I would do Noesi + Nunez + Cervelli for 1 year of Danks.
That deal favors the WS but they are holding Danks and he’s valuable merchandise. The Yankees offer has to top other teams. The market for a lefty with Danks’ track record is significant. Consider the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus for 1/2 season of Edwin Jackson. Danks is more valuable Edwin Jackson and he’s possible available for a full season.
Igawa’s should not keep the Yankees from going after Darvish any more than Burnett should keep the Yankees from going after Felix were he a free agent. Different pitchers with different stuff, different bodies, different ages and far different abilities.
I don’t pretend to be an expert on Darvish, but if the scouts are that high on him and the Yankees pass because of Igawa, that is simply foolish.
Bret-
Response at the end of the previous thread.
MTU,
If you’re unwilling to trade Nunez, you might run the risk of your offer falling short of other offers out there for Danks.
The WS would only be getting 1 extra year with Hughes.
The rest of the package has to be really solid in order to keep pace with the market for lefty starters with 15 win potential IMHO.
The White Sox might even demand Hughes + Nunez + Romine if they can find comparable offers out there.
Bret-
They can demand anything they want.
The trade has to benefit both parties.
To me Losing Nunez at this particular time would be a potential mistake.
I also would like to have a negotiating window with Danks as part of the agreement.
Hughes plus Romine is too steep IMO. I wouldn’t do that one.
I’d give ‘em Hughes, Cervelli and Pena.
Maybe Romine, Pena +
I would consider those fair offers.
If they can do better elsewhere so be it. We do not have to have Danks.
The one advantage any team has in posting for Darvish is if they can’t hammer out a deal with him and his agent by March, the Japanese team does not get the posting fee, and Darvish cannot be posted until the following season.
The question for the Yankees is, if CC resigns after opting out in November, will the Yankees still bid on Darvish if he notifies his team he wants to play in the US?
I agree Romine is almost a “must” for the White Sox in any potential Danks trade.
I would not do Hughes, but would offer any two of Noesi, Warren, Phelps, Brackman or Mitchell. Would want to keep Nunez out of this one.
Of course the Yanks could lower the talent demand by offering to take on Rios’ contract and see if they can get the best out of that guy. Rios instead of Swisher isn’t that much more $$$ per year. I know the guy is risky on and off the field. But if motivated and focused is a better player than Swisher… especially defensively.
Japanese pitchers are only used to pitching once per week in Japan. That should make Darvish a perfect fit for us in our 6 man rotation.
Bret, MTU, Austinmac, and anyone else still online-
Any other pitchers out there, lefty or righty, that you’d do the same deal for?
Not interested in him but Chad Billingsley, for inastance?
He’s signed long term for a contract extension that Danks might get>
12:$9M, 13:$11M, 14:$12M, 15:$14M club option ($3M buyout)
Just sign/trade for Ainge, Santiago, and Don Kelly, and call it a successful off season .
( … because you know the Yanks will face the Tigres in 2012 ALDS or ALCS once again . )
A good guess says the Yankees have scouted Darvish far more extensively than they ever did with Igawa but assuming a new C.C. deal gets done, the Yankees are not in a desperation mode but are in an improvement mode from the 2011 starting rotation.
Given a choice, I’d take the Darvish money and apply it toward diminishing Burnett’s contract and depending on how they feel about Danks or Buehrle and what either will cost.
No doubt Cashman is exploring every option with the thought that young arms in the farm system are on their way or in some cases available in a deal.
86-
I would only offer that much if I was very confident I could extend Danks beyond one year.
That might mean a negotiating window and Danks being willing to forego his FA to sign a longer deal with the Yanks.
The less sure I am I can retain his services the lower the offer.
Romine and Noesi have a lot of potential. Too much to throw away on a rental IMO.
YT-
Kershaw.
Two things not to be overlooked when considering Darvish:
1. The posting fee would not count against the luxury tax.
2. Signing this “free agent” would not cost a draft pick, unlike C. J. Wilson.
And by the way, Darvish has been a much better pitcher in Japan than Daisuke Matsuzaka ever was. He is clearly the most impressive pitcher yet to come out of Japan (if he does). Still no guarantee, but I would go for it. He’s young—it might take a year or so for him to settle in, but I think he is a worthwhile investment.
MTU,
If the White Sox were able to turn 1/2 year of Edwin Jackson into Colby Rasmus (indirectly), my guess is they could find offers out there comparable to 2 years of Hughes + Eduardo Nunez + Austin Romine.
The Yankees don’t have to have Danks, but it would be nice. If you figure Hughes is gone in 2 years, the deal is really only Nunez + Cervelli, both bench players on the Yankees, for Danks. Losing Nunez hurts because there’s no shortstops in the pipeline but losing Romine creates a huge gap between Martin and G. Sanchez.
86w183-
If you inckude Rios with Danks, then it will become an expanded deal.
Looking at that contract, I can’t see it happening:
12:$12M, 13:$12.5M, 14:$12.5M, 15:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)
may block trades to 6 clubs beginning in 2009
if traded between beginning of 2011 season and Spring Training 2014, future salaries increase by $0.5M each
if traded during 2014 season, 2015 option increases to $14M ($2M buyout)
I can’t see Cashamn trading a MLB starter for another MLB starter……He’d be more inclined to be some not ready for prime time guys for a Danks …..Chicago could be looking to rehuffle it’s long range goals in the aftermath of the Adam Dunn disaster ……
Compare Darvish to other top prospects.
For example Strasburg or Chapman.
You saw what they got.
Is Darvish likely to be better than both of them ?
He might just be the World’s most expensive prospect because that’s all he will be until he’s tested at the ML level. He’s also 24.
100 Million dollars is a lot of coin.
I don’t think we’re going there unless the scouts can say he is a sure
top of the rotation starter. Can’t miss.
That would really be putting your head on the chopping block otherwise.
Bret-
I don’t figure it that way.
Like I said I think Hughes will have a bounce back year.
I’m still confident that he can be a very good ML pitcher if he can just stay healthy.
That means next year and going forward.
Perhaps I’m wrong.
YT,
I am sure their are a number of pitchers who would help, Billingsley included. I haven’t heard many names thrown out as potentially available.
With so many long term contracts, I have a feeling they will not give out another one this year. Therefore, I don’t think they will go all in for Darvish or Wilson. I predict, based upon nothing but a sense, they will go low cost either in trades or use of their minor league.
I’ve posted this article over the past few days on Yu Darvish. I feel that he could possibly be one of the best pitchers to come out of Japan. He has aunt and uncles over here and speaks English, so a transition for him would likely be easier.
Article attached. You can also view what the author has to say about CJ Wilson in this recent article.
http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/.....tion-35521
WoW.
MTU,
It kind of boils down to Phil Hughes. If the Yankees think they can salvage something from him in his final 2 years of team control, they’ll keep him instead of selling low.
But right now, if Danks is available, you have to go by Hughes current value which is really low.
MTU-
If you haven’t read the article on Darvish, it’s worthwhile. Still would have liked to have had lefty Aroldis Chapman instead!
Bret-
Of course.
It’s all aboout what the Yankees think.
No way of knowing that in advance unless you know someone over at DARPA who is willing to loan you one of those top secret micro spy drones to land on the wall of the Yankees boardroom.
YT-
I always seem to be greedy for pitching.
I don’t think the Yankees are in the business of picking up bad contracts anymore. Therefore, the Rios and Danks concept seems unrealistic. I believe they want to get away from relying on finances but rather rely on building from within. Great idea, but I say if you have money, continue to use it.
MTU,
I gather you have been going through some issues in your life. Just know you have many friends here ready to distract you with baseball talk. Some of our suggestions will certainly cause you to chuckle.
Not endorsing taking rios, just pointing out that the Yanks have the resources to enhance any offer for any player by offering to take on a toxic/unfriendly contract.
I’ve made the same point that it might get Seattle to consider a King Felix deal if you take Chone Figgins off their hands. There are a bunch of contracts like that throughout baseball which open up possibilities for creative deals.
I dont get the assumption that Hughes is leaving in two years. I do agree that Danks without an extension is a risky proposition.
I always seem to be greedy for pitching.
————————————-
It seems that will be the focus of the Yankee brass this offseason.
The offense will be virtually the same, but better, especially with the addition of Montero for a full season. Swisher’s in a walk year. Teixeira will put in the extra time from the left side. Granderson will work on cutting down his strikeouts, Gardner on getting on base by any means possible, and hopefully an older A-Rod will be productive again.
If they get Sabathia resigned the needs are another starter, maybe a lefty in the bullpen, and a bench.
YT-
I have read all about Darvish.
The Yankees began scouting him years ago. They have been on him for quite some time.
That said, I am not sure any prospect, which is what he is, is worth that kind of an investment.
Again. Compare those $’s to what elite prospects like Strasburg and Chapman received.
Is he higher end than those guys ? More of a sure thing ?
Unlikely.
ausitnmac —
I think it will always be a combination of player development, player exchanges and player purchases. I almost has to be. I don’t see the Yanks taking on massive deals either, unless it gets them a major talent for minor talent.
Hal and Cash certainly seem to consider the value of the $$$ involved in a deal much more so than the Boss did.
off to see The Addams Family !!
Have a great day all
Austin-
I have and I appreciate the sentiment.
I know you went thru some really tough times a while back.
I really felt for you. Very tough.
Everyone gets their turn in the barrel I guess.
The blog can be a welcome distraction, and as you point out very humorous as well.
I’ll be around as I can. Sometimes I just read but am unable to post.
Whatever the Yanks decide to do about Darvish is fine with me. But, man that guy has some nasty, nasty, nasty, ( did I say nasty ?) movement on his pitches !!!
Hughes could wind up in the bullpen if he can’t maintain his heat for more than a few innings.
What will Joba be ? No guarantee of anything until he’s back. I don’t think it will EVER be as a starter for Yanks.
MTU
Totally agree. Wish the Yankees had gotten in for Chapman at 30M.
Strasburg was gotten by being one of the worst teams in baseball.
I have only a knowledge of Darvish from what I’ve read, and what I saw on youtube videos of him from 2 years ago. He’s much more impressive than Kei Igawa was on videos. I never saw what the Yankees must have seen in him to warrant that contract.
Hopefully CC comes back for a 5 year/125M contract with the possibility of an incentive/vested option for another year, possibly two if that’s what it takes. 7 years guaranteed-I’m not sure any team goes there??
off to see The Addams Family !!
———————–
86w183-
Enjoy ITT!
There are a some very compelling reasons to sign Darvish
1) As stated, money is generally not an issue for the Yankees and is a big advantage.
2) The post does not count against the luxury tax so salary wise he’ll be a ten million dollar a year pitcher. (as a potential number two)
3) Since Matsui left there are a lot of Yankee fans in Japan that have no “hero” to root for. That’s a lot of merch and it keeps the Yankees international profile high.
4) Because they don’t have to give up a draft pick the only risk is cash. We’ve lost cash before. It’s what we do best.
5) Sure we might end up with headlines like , “Yuuuuuu Stink!” and Darvish Garbish. but hey that’s fun too.
Do it.
Pat M. October 22nd, 2011 at 12:34 pm
I can’t see Cashamn trading a MLB starter for another MLB starter……He’d be more inclined to be some not ready for prime time guys for a Danks …..Chicago could be looking to rehuffle it’s long range goals in the aftermath of the Adam Dunn disaster ……
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And therein lies what the White Sox are dealing with. With the AL Central Division being reasonably easy from year to year, the White Sox are still hamstrung with the Dunn and Rios contracts. They’re probably looking to get younger and cheaper with GM Kenny Williams being as creative as possible at least in 2012. Robin Ventura took the manager position knowing this in advance.
YT-
Yes. We really need CC back. He is the anchor of that rotation and just happens to be left-handed.
He’s a leader on and off the field.
I’m thinking (hoping) that Nova and Hughes can be very good.
You know what I think of AJ.
Noesi, etc. can compete for the 5 slot.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Garcia back too.
I would like to balance things out with another Lefty.
We’ll see what happens after a while.
I don’t see the Yankees under any pressure.
I hope they do not do anything foolish as they are well set up for now and the future.
Work smart. No more panic moves or knee-jerk reactions.
I don’t think it will EVER be as a starter for Yanks.
———————————–
should have traded him when they had a chance
Expectation is that Darvish is ready to play in the States, but Darvish himself claims the one-foot-out-the-door stories are exaggerated. Darvish wrote on his personal blog that he has yet to decide whether he wants to play in America next year.
—
He’s just saying that because he is still playing for the Fighters.
He will post.
I don’t know if it will take $100 mil total to get him, but probably at least around $80 mil.
One thing I did notice, over the last 4 years, Yu has averaged just over 8 innings per start. That is in a 6 man rotation, but it doesn’t seem like endurance is a problem for him.
I say bid enough to win the posting…..them offer him 4/40 as a contract and if he doesn’t like that he can go back to Japan and try again next year.
http://www.baseball-reference......d=62afd714
If you look at that chart, you can see that Yu is pretty much in a league of his own there.
Our old friend Darrell Rasner put up a 4.48 ERA in 26 starts…
jacksquat October 22nd, 2011 at 1:16 pm
One thing I did notice, over the last 4 years, Yu has averaged just over 8 innings per start. That is in a 6 man rotation, but it doesn?t seem like endurance is a problem for him.
———-
8 innings in our 6 man rotation is worth 10mm per any day
Have to go.
If the Yankees have the same, but improved, offense+Montero. I’ll be happy.
If the rotation is Sabathia, Nova, Darvish, Danks, Noesi/Hughes i think I’d still be happy.
Have a great day all. All good points and enjoyed the discussions!
I think you want to make the contract 5 or 6 years to lessen the AAV of the posting fee.
If they post 40 and pay 40 for 4 years, that’s $20mil/year. Even though only half is on the official payroll, they are still paying the money.
I don’t think Hughes would be particularly attractive to the White Sox. At this point there are probably few teams that would be interested in him as a legitimate trade chip.
The team would have to be in contention (or very close to it) as Hughes is only 2 years from FA and also carry a decent sized payroll because he will make about $12 million in those 2 years.
I assume the White Sox would much prefer Noesi if they want a pitcher in a deal for Danks.
Yea but they don’t really consider that other 40 to be “payroll” it would only be 10 million a year AAV as it relates to the luxury tax etc….the length would be a big factors or for me considering what’s remaining uncertainty of how he will transition…..id try to keep the # of years down as much as possible. If the Yanks win the posting then they have at least blocked everyone else even if they don’t sign him…
LGY,
Yea I agree…..
Right, it’s not payroll and helping avoid payroll tax is worth something, but it’s still 40 million dollars they are spending is all I’m saying.
Jacksquat,
Yea I know…..
There’s actually a 22 year old starter in the Pacific League with comparable peripherals and a lower ERA than Darvish.
He looks like Dice-BB though. Short, kinda chubby, and classic deceptive Japanese delivery.
Masahiro Tanaka.
The posting bids are confidential. To me it’s not worth it spending $100M on an unproven pitcher, then squabbling over a few bucks differential with CC vs his present contract. One is proven, one is unproven.
IMHO, re-sign CC, sign Garcia as starting depth/insurance, hope Nova has a good sophomore season, hold on to AJ and pray for the good AJ, hope Hughes has a bounce-back season, give Noesi (whom some feel is better than Nova) a shot, and make a move for a complementary FA like Buehrle, Garland, Hiroki Kuroda,
make a move for a complementary FA like Buehrle, Garland, Hiroki Kuroda,
===================
it makes sense not to make a big slash this offseason as there are no whales out there.
buerhle for colon makes sense if cost effective.
your ideas could give us a 7 man rotation….;)
I think its beneficial to the Yanks to win the posting whether they sign him or not…..it keeps Texas or Boston or Toronto or whoever else from getting him.
2011 Pacific League Pitching Leaders:
http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2011/stats/pit_p.html
Darvish: 1.44 ERA, 8 1/3 innings per start, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 6.05 H/9.
with CC, Nova,AJ as 1-3
Garcia as insurance and possibly Hughes
that leaves a Noesi as a fallback
if you throw Buerhle and Darvish in the mix you have a healthy competition
2013 you go out looking for a true #2 if need be.
Hmm, no I don’t think Tanaka’s numbers really approach Yu’s, not bad though, especially since he’s only 21. But if he’s built like Dice that’s not good.
Oh wait, I was looking at Tanaka’s 2010 numbers…
Darvish is a risk……but what if he’s good and allows them to pass on an even more expensive pitcher in 2013?
Buerhle is a good idea IMHO
Tanaka is younger so probably can’t post anytime soon.
I don’t think Buerle will leave the midwest…..if he would then id like him ok
is there any real hangup to getting darvish…other than money and possible getting burned again?
sounds like a no brainer, esp if they keep the payroll similar to 2011.
Masahiro Tanaka aka Dice-BB Matsuzaka
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FC7bHX4awg
blake October 22nd, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Darvish is a risk……
===============
what is the risk?
Japan teams got such cutie cartoon characters as mascots .
In addition to cash, the Yankees have 2 signficant advantages that no other team has:
1. Minor league pitching depth that they know will never break into their big club. Similar to when Karstens, Ohlendorf, Clippard were considered expendable in trades, look for similar packages of trades the next 2 seasons.
2. Minor league catching depth, headlined by Montero, Romine, Sanchez, and others. And don’t forget that Cervelli is now expendable.
Posting fee does not count against the luxury tax, but $80 mil is still a lot of money.
Hideki Irabu and Dice-K were “can’t miss” also.
I say pass.
Meh, anyone with good (not necessarily great) breaking pitches can get a bunch of minor league or Japanese league hitters out. That doesn’t work in the majors so well. Kei Igawa is a great example. Tanaka pitches like that. Darvish does not pitch like that.
blake October 22nd, 2011 at 1:43 pm
I think its beneficial to the Yanks to win the posting whether they sign him or not…..it keeps Texas or Boston or Toronto or whoever else from getting him.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I wouldn’t expect Boston to be players in 2012 with free agency or Darvish bidding. John Henry will tell his new GM to be creative in trying to straighten out the fiasco up there.
He might have left a message by saying over a radio station that he wasn’t keen on signing Crawford. They have a lot of damage control to do.
Toronto will be bigger spenders knowing that they might only have the Yankees to outspend them.
108,
I really wouldn’t expect them to either…..but you never know.
Mick,
He ma not be able to make the transition…..that’s the risk.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ode-1.html
Is it a risk worth taking? It maybe. I think a number of fans are warming up to the idea of him being in pinstripes.
White Sox and thoughts about trading Floyd and Danks
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ode-1.html
mick October 22nd, 2011 at 2:02 pm
blake October 22nd, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Darvish is a risk……
===============
what is the risk?
=================
The risk is that he will be very expensive to obtain, requiring a lot of money upfront, and carries with him a significant likelihood of failure–possibly every bit as large a chance of failing as a typical star Triple-A prospect. All things being equal, I think that the Yanks would be better served going the more traditional route with their domestic draft picks, international free agent signings, and internal player development. Igawa was a miserable failure for the Yanks, and Matsuzaka was at best a push for the Sox. The only way that the Yanks should make this deal is if there is a way to somehow mitigate the costs associated with signing Darvish.
If anyone thinks the Yankees have so much available money that risking $100 million dollars on an unknown quantity such as Darvish is a “no-brainer”, that’s not really the way smart business people think. If the risk fails, jobs will end and the consequences will be far-reaching. What are the odds that Darvish will be lights-out? 2-1, 3-1, 5-1, or more, all against? Will the Yankees take that risk when they can finance their entire minor leagues system for years with that kind of money? Maybe, maybe not, but the idea that “it’s just money” doesn’t fly with me. It’ll be a business decision that I hope turns out well, either way.
tomingeorgia October 22nd, 2011 at 2:57 pm
If anyone thinks the Yankees have so much available money that risking $100 million dollars on an unknown quantity such as Darvish is a “no-brainer”…
===
The other part of the equation is how good would Darvish have to be in order to justify placing such a big bet on him. It’s pretty obvious that placing a $1,000 bet on 3-to-1 odds isignificantly less risky than placing $10,000 bet on the same 3-to-1 odds. However, when placing this kind of bet at the race at the race track, the bettor at least can expect a payoff that is 10 times better than the alternative. Would that be true with taking a flyer on Darvish? I doubt it…
U cant get scared of talent because a countryman failed here. That’s not how a team does business
“I don’t pretend to be an expert on Darvish, but if the scouts are that high on him and the Yankees pass because of Igawa, that is simply foolish.”
This. Comparing Darvish to Igawa is ridiculous. Most scouts thought Igawa was a real stretch to even make it in the big leagues, and the Yanks’ signing him looked like an overreaction to the Red Sox signing of Dice K. Darvish has dominated the Japanese league in a way that Dice K never did. Of course there’s risk, but the possible upside is a true ace, the hardest thing to find or develop in baseball.
Comparing Darvish to Lackey is also foolhardy. I think a more apt comparison to Lackey would be Wilson, who simply is “the best available free agent pitcher,” like Lackey appeared to be when the Red Sox signed him.
If the Yankee scouts truly hold Darvish in as high regard as it’s been reported, they should go all out after this guy. Don’t let one stupid mistake (signing Igawa) lead you to make another.
“If anyone thinks the Yankees have so much available money that risking $100 million dollars on an unknown quantity such as Darvish is a “no-brainer”… ”
I strongly disagree. First, if Darvish is what the scouts think he is — a true ace at 25 years old — the Yanks will make millions on Darvish above whatever it is they spend on him. Just in marketing, jerseys, and all the other cr*p sold in Japan on Darvish alone, he will make the Yankees money — and a lot of it.
Second, Darvish is no more an “unknown quantity” than any of their top AAA prospects. If you look at Darvish that way, which is, imo, the proper way to view him, as having achieved what he has at a Triple A+ level, he blows away any prospects we have — and we have some good ones. He has not just done well in Japan, he has dominated, and, by all accounts, the scouts love him.
Third, more than half the outlay for Darvish is a one-time expense — the posting fee. It doesn’t count against the luxury tax, and it doesn’t cost us a draft pick. Further, if you sign someone like, say, C.J. Wilson, you’re going to have to pay a lot more per year for years to come just in salary alone, plus it’s going to cost you in luxury tax and a first-round draft pick. And — according to scouts, he doesn’t have near the upside that Darvish does, and is 6 years older.
Whatever you want to think about the Yanks, they do, indeed, have enough money to plunk down on a gamble of this sort, and, if it’s just money you’re worried about, it’s not as big a risk as you think, given what the team will make back on Darvish in marketing and sales.
I’m not saying that signing him is a no-brainer. I’ll leave that to the baseball people. But if they think Darvish has a good chance to be a true ace for the Yanks, which it seems that they do, then the risk is well worth the reward in this case, in my opinion.