A Series for the skippers
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 26, 2011 
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Yesterday, The Associated Press moved at least three different pictures of this dugout telephone. There was a vertical picture, a horizontal picture of just the phone, and this one showing the words World Series painted on the wall. I liked the words, so I chose this one.
Why such focus on a phone? Because haven’t you heard, this World Series is suddenly all about calls to the bullpen and superstars calling plays and managers making decisions that might actually influence the game. When the World Series started, I wrote a post saying the Yankees were built for his series — it was really just a reference to the bullpen — and now it turns out the Yankees were built for this World Series for an entirely different reason.
If this Series is going to be all about second guessing managers, Joe Girardi would have felt right at home!
I think I’m in the internet minority, but I actually like Girardi as a manager. I’ve certainly disagreed with some of his decisions — pinch hitting Eric Chavez for Brett Gardner certainly stands out as a recent example — but he always seems to have some level of logic behind his choices.* I might not agree with his logic, but at least you know he’s thought about these things. As a member of the media, that’s pretty much all I can ask for: Right or wrong, at least be able to explain yourself.
As Tom Verducci pointed out yesterday, Tony La Russa tried to explain his Game 5 decisions, but his explanations made little or no sense.
There are two very different managerial styles in this World Series. For those of you who don’t like Girardi, which would you rather have, an occasional over-thinker in La Russa or a “could get lucky” guy in Ron Washington? Or is by-the-book Girardi better than either World Series alternative?
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* Just a side note, but isn’t this what made the Yankees six-man rotation experience so bizarre? Agree or not, Girardi usually sets his mind to something and makes his choice. Choosing not to settle on five starters was uncharacteristic unless Girardi really thought the extra rest was providing a big boost.
Associated Press photos
Or, more bluntly so everyone can understand, even the math ignorant:
If CJ Wilson and Yu Darvish are the only difference in the roster, and if each is paid 5/90 total, but half of Yu is posting fee, you pay $36 mil taxes for Wilson, $18 mil for Yu.
In the end though, I would like to have Yu on the team because I’m fairly confident he would be at least good, and it would be interesting/entertaining. And entertainment is what it’s all about.
Or you can use one of our minor leaguers that has dominated and averaged 200 innings each of the last 5 years. We have several of those, right?
October 26, 2011 at 9:02 am Darvish:
Pros: -A true “only money ” signing. No draft picks involved -25 years old -posting fee not part of actual payroll. -possible revenue increase due to Japanese markets -scouts love him.
Cons:
-still a lot of money -real risk attached due to the transition from Japan.
The Yanks just have to decide if the possible reward warrants the risk……if it fails then it really only hurts their pocket books and its their money so its their decision……but from all the info out there it seems like a good opportunity and a worthwhile gamble.
Chad-
I know it’s cheatin’ but I’d like a guy who combines the best of both worlds.
October 26, 2011 at 9:02 am Darvish:
Pros:
-A true “only money ” signing. No draft picks involved
-25 years old
-posting fee not part of actual payroll.
-possible revenue increase due to Japanese markets -scouts love him.
Cons:
-still a lot of money
-real risk attached due to the transition from Japan.
The Yanks just have to decide if the possible reward warrants the risk……if it fails then it really only hurts their pocket books and its their money so its their decision……but from all the info out there it seems like a good opportunity and a worthwhile gamble.
Larussa screwed up and so did Pujols……all the spin in the world doesn’t change that.
I think I?m in the internet minority, but I actually like Girardi as a manager.
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count me in the minority too. I’ve always liked Girardi as manager.
What millionaires do you know who spend $100 million dollars and it doesn’t impact how they do other business
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What aspect of the business do you forsee the posting fee negatively impacting?
I like Girardi as well……all managers do dumb things from time to time. I think he’s a great regular season manager for a team like the Yankees. My only criticism is that I think he could manage with more urgency in October…..the conservatism that makes him good in the regular season has been a downfall at times in the playoffs…….
Chad, or the final decision about the 6-man wasn’t really his…
And I agree – I don’t always agree with Girardi’s moves, but as a manager overall I am comfortable with him.
I guess the perfect manager is a combo of thinking (binder) and feeling. I wouldn’t want either La Russa or Washington.
One thing I read somewhere was the no one questions TLR. So, his bullpen coach was not apt to say to him, “Hey Tony, are you sure you want Lynn, because he’s on the unavailable list today?” How is that in any way a good thing?
It seems to me that Girardi is 100% crystal clear on things like that – which players are and are not available, particularly with regard to the bullpen. And I’d like to think that Harkey would feel almost obligated to double check if Girardi asked him to get someone up who isn’t scheduled to pitch.
Pat,
So you’re saying that you don’t think its possible that signing Darvish coukd increase revenues for the club?
Nova didn’t dominate either…nor andy Pettitte or Danks among others.
As far as Youdon’tknowJackSquat goes, everyone’s aware of how to do the math. It comes down to Darvish being worth that money when you can put two or three young pitchers out there and get the same number of wins and wins are what counts.
Cashman has his priorities once he gets his own status in place.
- Get C.C. in the fold for likely the rest of his career.
- Weigh all the options with a Darvish signing.
- Exhaust all possibilites in getting Burnett elsewhere to open up a starting pitching spot.
- Secure a lefthander ( Danks or Buehrle) for the rotation.
- Offer arbitration to Freddy Garcia.
- Set the position player lineup and feel comfortable with all backup situations.
If the Steinbrenners thought the unknown amount of revenue from overseas advertisemnt and sales was worth the cost of buying a talent from Japan, they wouldn’t have let a still productive talent like Matsui go. Apparently, it wasn’t enough to make the risk worth it.
Blake
Every player generates revenue but Darvish would have to be very special to cover $50M over salary.
Even with Chicago possibly moving a pitcher, whether its Danks or Floyd, the cost will be a bit steep. They’re looking for a couple of ready pitchers from the group of Warren/Mitchell/Phelps or possibly Hall or Stoneburner, but, most of all a major league outfielder. They look at Flowers as their catcher in waiting. They also have 4 good infielders. What outfielder will you be giving up? Certainly not Granderson. I doubt seriously that they’d want Swisher back. Who does that leave?
“Pat, you see that every day on here. Get this player…get that player. Cost be damned but you he better be good or else. You’ve seen it with teixeira. everybody insisted that he was a must…until the 2nd year. Now, the same ones want him dumped for the new greatest flavor..Pujols or Fielder…preferrably both.”
That’s lohud for ya! The loyalties of alley cats!!!
Anyway, since I am pretty dispassionate about the subject of player procurement, I tend to think of myself as more logical when it comes to what the Yanks might or might not do.
I can’t imagine the front four of the upcoming rotation being other than CC, AJ, Nova, and Hughes (not in any particular order). I think bringing back Garcia and/or Colon would make sense.
I am all for Joba back to the starting rotation at some point in time.
This has been your objective, nonemotional, logical post for the day.
Carry on!
I don’t really have a problem with Girardi. He’s good with the bullpen (although he gets match-up happy sometimes) and seems to have a good feel for his players. The postseason is about player performance- does someone get the clutch hit, sac fly, strikeout, etc. when its needed. I don’t remember a time where I was uncomfortable about who he had out there when the moment came. You can second guess the manager all you want in hindsight- The bottom line is the players haven’t performed when they have needed to.
You sign Darvish to make the team better. That’s always first priority.
Japanese revenue is just an added bonus.
108 – I think you are dreaming if you actually believe AJ will be anywhere but back in the Bronx.
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I also support Girardi. I agree that his moves are thought out.
I think I’d like to see a little Maddon infused into his repertoire, though I think that he has constraints that Maddon does not, namely dealing with players who are much more established and thus dealing with factors Maddon does not have to deal with.
Watching Wash and TLR makes me appreciate Girardi all the more.
When has a starting pitcher ever come to the States from Japan and ever been what was advertised? Once…Nomo.
Igawa had ERAs under 3.00, multiple 200 strikeout years and win totals consistantly from 13 to 20. He never sniffed that in the states. Matsuzaka one time.
Igawa’s numbers:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....=Kei-Igawa
You can’t judge what Darvish did in Japan and say he’ll put up those kind of numbers, but, that’s what everyone keeps posting. The fact that he’s considerably bigger than most Japanese hitters doesn’t seem to cross anybody’s mind, but, his size gets posted on here, too.
I don’t know what he’ll do in the States, but, neither do you. How many Darvish championers will turn into whiners if he bombs?
“I don’t know what he’ll do in the States, but, neither do you. How many Darvish championers will turn into whiners if he bombs?”
Need you even ask that question?
What have you done for me lately
Ooh ooh ooh yeah
The Yankees thought they had won out on Hideki Irabu and then Kei Igawa.
Maybe the Stein brothers have learned from Dad’s mistakes.
“You sign Darvish to make the team better. That’s always first priority.
Japanese revenue is just an added bonus.”
Yes….and this is all Im saying. You sign him if you think he can help….all the other stuff are benefits.
I do know one thing. Nobody is going to sign him for what Boston signed Matsuzaka for. In order for them to earn anything back on that posting fee, it won’t be for a 4 year contract and if he doesn’t require a $13-$16 mil a year deal, I’d be shocked.
I would think that Noesi and Hughes are more than capable of putting up the same numbers with more strikeouts than Nova did and for a Hell of a lot less money. All three combined will make less than half of what Darvish will require. Doubtful that Darvish does any better.
Yu Darvish–interesting idea. Post what you think he’s worth, and no more. If you get him, fine. If not, no big loss. Posting fee is only $$$ as others have said.
Yankee pitching: Not bad. CC, Nova, Hughes, AJ, reclaimed vet of some sort (maybe Freddy G), Noesi/Warren? triple AAA types, the B’s in the background. Best BP in baseball: Mo, DRob, Soriano, Wade, Logan +/- Ayala or another like him. Maybe find another lefty.
Yankee hitting: say what you want about age, but the Yankees are putting out #2-5 each with the potential for a 30/100 season. Their #1 is either a guy who hit .350 since July or the AL stolen base leader (the number #9). Their number #6 is a potential ROY with 30/100 possibilities. Their number #7 is at least 25/80 or 30/100. The only “defect” in the lineup is catcher, but who knows with KLong? No worries there.
Once CC is resigned, and they figure out whether and what to bid on Yu +/- Wilson, as well as what if anything to pay Freddy G in arbitration, their offseason is basically done.
Their archrival Boston is in a much more precarious position right now, with the potential for major problems.
“You sign Darvish to make the team better. That’s always first priority.”
Then why get caught up in pretzel logic math? Just say I think he’s the best pitcher available and I want him because he makes the team better whether the money makes sense or not.
Also- have they ever signed a player where the intention wasn’t to make the team better?
I hope the Yanks sign Yu, but if I were making the decision I wouldn’t. Too much money for an unknown, no matter how impressive he’s been.
The Yanks can afford to make a very expensive mistake here, but I’m only in favor of the risk if the Steinbrothers view the posting fee outside the “payroll” budget. Otherwise grabbing Yu might take them out of what could be a very exciting free agent class after next season.
Pat,
Also….my understanding of the current CBA is that only a percentage of total revenue is shared. So if 1 million Yu Darvish jerseys were sold then only a percentage (I think 31%) of that would be split between the other clubs…..meaning that it still makes the Yankees more money. If Im wrong on that then correct me.
“Then why get caught up in pretzel logic math? Just say I think he’s the best pitcher available and I want him because he makes the team better whether the money makes sense or not.”
Of course the primary reason they would sign him would be for on the field reasons…..but I think they will consider the financial aspect as well….and that doesn’t mean its a major factor in any decision….just a factor.
I don’t know what he’ll do in the States, but, neither do you. How many Darvish championers will turn into whiners if he bombs?
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Not me
I’ll ride the bandwagon & I won’t pretend like I never wanted him. I’m accountable. You can mark me down as a Darvish supporter.
good morning, all –
I think the Darvish calculations have to come to “bang for the buck”. If they feel that they can a similar level of performance from pitchers they already have in the system, whom they’re more familiar with and hence more comfortable with their evaluation of, and for a lot less total dollars, then they’ll likely go with the internal options.
What’s the worst that can happen if they pass on Darvish, and he turns out to be good in MLB? Well, they still have Hughes, Nova, Noesi, Betances, Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell…… In other words, they’re not out anything and no worse off.
If they spend on Darvish, and are wrong, then they’re out a lot of $$$$. Would that loss affect how much they spend in other areas? Only the Steinbrenners can answer that.
To me, teams like the Red Sox have the greater quandry. They desperately need starting pitching, and there’s not a whole lot of it available. Do they spend a potential $100M on someone who might be a bust, and then affect the rest of their operations? You can’t tell me that the $25M they’re going to be paying DiceK and Lackey, who will not pitch at all next year, isn’t going to be an issue for them.
Just my thoughts on things.
As usual, GB can’t debate logically without throwing in personal attacks. Bully tactics don’t work on the internet.
I feel many think that every time someone buys a Yankee hat the Yanks get 10 dollars or something.
Now if they could get YES broadcast in Japan… That would be worth something.
By the way, I watched my DVR’d broadcast of the Mantle documentary on HBO. That was a very well done doc. I would recommend it heartily to anyone, especially to guys of “a certain age”, as the saying goes.
He really was something very special, and so totally reflected an era in American history.
Blake
That’s right. Teams keep about 2/3 of the revenue generated and put 1/3 into the revenue sharing pool.
That’s right. Teams keep about 2/3 of the revenue generated and put 1/3 into the revenue sharing pool.
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What about the manufacturer?
“October 26, 2011 at 10:32 am I feel many think that every time someone buys a Yankee hat the Yanks get 10 dollars or something.”
Kinda like how patients think the 800 bucks they just spent on a crown goes right in the dentist’s pocket
I know its not like that…..but without seeing the Yankee books its tough to gauge what impact it would have…..it may be marginal….I have no idea
So people think five years of 200 innings (230 in 2011), average 8 innings per start, is equivalent to what we have in the minors now.
There is no comparison.
Revenue on merchandise sales is calculated on net not gross.
I can vouch for Lock. Trustable and accountable – and also lots of fun!
What the heck more could you ask for in a Yankee fan?
“Revenue on merchandise sales is calculated on net not gross.”
Yes but theoretically if say signing Darvish increased merchandised sales by say 20%…..the Yankees would still increase their revenue by 67% of that 20% (whatever that number is) is that number significant…..I don’t know.
jacksquat October 26th, 2011 at 10:30 am
As usual, GB can’t debate logically without throwing in personal attacks. Bully tactics don’t work on the internet.
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You mean like this?
jacksquat October 26th, 2011 at 9:05 am
Or, more bluntly so everyone can understand, even the math ignorant:
Girardi is an excellent REGULAR SEASON manager.
His managing of the bullpen is masterful and he seems to most out of his relievers.
He also makes sure to keep players fresh with a good eye for the “Big Picture” over a grueling 162 game season. He is extremely loyal to his players, which can pay off (not moving Jeter down in the order) or bite him (not moving Teixeira down in the order).
Unfortunately, these qualities do not translate well into the postseason. He is unable to shift gears to a “win now” mentality necessary in the postseason. He really lacks that “go for the throat” instinct. This was on plain display in this years ALDS (e.g. – Using Ayala in game 2 and not pinch hitting Montero for Martin in game 5).
I think I’d like to see a little Maddon infused into his repertoire
Making bad decisions on a whim and getting lucky is not a sustainable strategy.
I really wish he had pinch hit Montero in game 5 and Montero struck out, it’s really grinding reading the same gripe over and over and over and over and over and over… get over it.
Irreverent Discourse October 26th, 2011 at 11:05 am
I think I’d like to see a little Maddon infused into his repertoire
Making bad decisions on a whim and getting lucky is not a sustainable strategy.
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If CC Sabathia gets signed this week, by Sunday at the latest, then the Yankees can focus on the rest of the needs at pitching.
Do they offer arbitration to Type B FA Garcia to sign him or with a handshake that he’ll decline in order that the Yankees still get the draft pick?
If CC signs, there probably is little interest in CJ Wilson on a 5 year contract.
They could still post on Yu Darvish. If they win the Yankees have the leverage in contract negotiations, as the fee is not paid until the contract is signed. No signing and Darvish goes back to Japan. Cannot post him till the following season. BTW transition to the States should be easier for Darvish. Has Aunts and Uncles here, and spoke English when growing up.
They could trade their abundance of AAA starters for a proven starter.
Could the starting rotation look like this next season?
Sabathia
Nova
#3-starter thru trade
Burnett
Hughes/Noesi/Garcia
RSM-
Girardi needs to loosen up and tinker with the lineup to maximize run production with the players who are performing at the time.
Bobby Cox will probably get voted in the HOF. With all the success the Braves have had getting to the postseason, while he was the manager, they only won the WS once, against the Indians on a 1-0 shutout by Tom Glavine and a solo homer by David Justice. Cox, especially in the early WS appearances was too loyal to his position players and would not switch the lineup no matter how poorly some of them were performing.
That being said, Girardi is still the man for the job.
Certainly as an fan we don’t always agree with Girardi’s decisions. IMO, he is a decent manager, but the ultimate company man, worrying more job security than what is needed to win.
again, what’s the shelf life for japanese starters? 3 decent season tops?
girardi was in the running for MOY during the regular season.
but his game 5 managing drove me nuts…
“but his game 5 managing drove me nuts”
To be fair…..he lost his starter after the 2nd inning and managed to piece the pen together to give up only 1 more run the rest of the game. I think he could have pinch hit some guys late but the game 5 loss is WAY more on the players than Girardi
Game 2 bothered me a lot more as relates to Joe.
ID
Why do you dislike Montero?
I don’t dislike Montero at all, I dislike the ridiculous hope and hype surrounding a 20-year-old player. He has practically no chance to succeed in some people’s eyes because his myth has become bigger than him.
For me, whether or not Montero strikes out or gets a hit in a PH situtation in game 5 is not the issue AT ALL. My issues with PS Girardi is not about 1 AB. It’s about his inability to improvise & change things up.
It’s about an accumulations of PH/Bench/Lineup.
No one here can convince me that he put the best lineup on the field. It was clear that Teix had trouble with righties. It was NOT something that just showed up in the post. After 2 games, it was also clear that Posada was hitting. At that point: Maybe he would have stopped hitting, maybe he would have continued… but we know Teix has issues.
So changing the lineup and putting Posada in the 5th spot (ahead of Teix) was the correct move. Instead of leaving it as is: A-rod with his lack of timing, Teix who can’t hit righties and swisher all lined up in a row.
Having Posada bat after 4-5-6 made him a virtual lead off hitter because it’s rare that the guys ahead of him got on base. He is better suited in the RISP spot (somewhere close to Cano) as opposed to a leadoff hitter (following 4-5-6).
This was a simple move girardi could have made, but he didn’t.
No one will ever convince me that keeping the lineup as is was the best move.
But why root against him if it’s just the hype you dislike?
Hey – I got an idea. Since Girardi’s only obligation seems to be writing out the lineup card, and no need to substitute a hitter in a big spot – it’s all on the guy written in to start – why not save money there?
Who needs a manager? Alex is smarter than Girardi anyway (and apparently smarter than Pujols) – why not just let Alex be manager/player?
Works for me.
I think Garcia ended up making about $ 4 M of thereabouts. Offering him arbitration guarantees him 80 % of whatever he made and I don’t think he can top that in the market.
Assuming they keep CC, my guess is they do keep Freddie and don’t keep Colon. However, each decision may depend on whether they view Hughes as “set” for the rotation.
Would like to see what kind of starter might be available for a Noesi/Warren/Romine type package. Then again, I’d be content to see them make a move for a young in-his-prime RF and trust the young guys to fill the # 5 slot.
New Post: Are the Red Sox a threat for CC?
The classic example of how girardi’s lack of feel harmed the Yanks in the playoffs was game 3 in he 2009. ALCS vs the Angels. He took out a white hot Robertson and put in Ace, who surrendered the game winning hit to Kendrick. He later referred to the binder for his explanation, but robertson was pitching so well with such a high level of confidence. No way I would have taken him out at that point. Now and then, even an analytical manager such as Girardi needs to trust their eyes.
Overall, though, I have few complaints about Girardi over 162 games.