The LoHud Yankees Blog

A baseball manager is an easy target. When his moves work, it’s easy to give credit to the players who made it work. When his moves don’t work, it’s easy to blame the decision and assume that a different choice would have led to a better result.

Is Derek Jeter’s strong second half a credit to Jeter, or a credit to Joe Girardi for sticking with him in the leadoff spot?

Is the Yankees division series loss because key hitters didn’t produce in key spots, or because Girardi didn’t pick the right hitters for those situations? Would anything have changed if Jesus Montero were given an at-bat in Game 5?

These are three of Girardi’s most questionable moves this year. Are the results that followed Girardi’s fault?

The six-man rotation
Probably the most questionable decision of the regular season, mostly because it wasn’t a decision at all. It was a non-decision.

Given six viable starting pitchers at the end of July, the Yankees chose to keep all of them. There was constant talk of trimming to a five-man, but Ivan Nova pitched too well to be optioned, Phil Hughes showed signs of improvement, and Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon had workloads that were cause for concern.

The six-man might have kept Garcia effective, but it might also have limited CC Sabathai, who had a bad second half – by his standards – and is well known for his preference to stay on turn (for him, short rest seems preferable to extra rest).

The division series lineup
Let’s start this with my own admission that I happen to agree with Girardi on this point: Whatever postseason numbers suggest, I think it makes more sense to choose a lineup based on regular season results. The larger sample size gives a better indication of what a player’s capable of doing. To me, shaking up the lineup for Game 5, immediately after the team scored 10 runs in Game 4, would have been second guessed more than sticking with the regular batting order.

That said, Girardi’s lineup clearly didn’t work. The heart of the order started slow and stayed that way. Russell Martin had a bad series and was allowed to hit for himself in a big spot in the finale.

Oddly enough, the Girardi lineup decision that had me most puzzled in the division series was the decision to pinch hit Eric Chavez for Brett Gardner strictly because Girardi was hoping for a home run. At this point, I’m just not sure Chavez is legitimately a bigger home run threat than Gardner, and I think Gardner had a better chance of either driving a double to the gap or at least rolling the lineup over to the top of the order.

The significance of Robinson Cano
From beginning to end, last season was a fairly significant proof that Robinson Cano had developed into the Yankees best all-around hitter. He was an MVP candidate and a more dangerous hitter, despite the fact he was protecting Alex Rodriguez (not the other way around).

Unconvinced by one season – fair enough – Girardi kept his third, fourth and fifth hitters unchanged out of spring training, giving Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira well-earned time to reassert themselves. But that never happened. Rodriguez got off to a strong start, then got hurt. Teixeira hit for power, but never his for his usual average, especially not against right-handers.

It wasn’t until the last series of the season, when he had two full seasons of overwhelming evidence, that Girardi finally made the switch and moved Cano up to the No. 3 spot in the order, dropping Teixeira’s all-or-nothing bat into the fifth hole. As I said several times when the Yankees leadoff spot was being debated, I’m in the camp that does not believe the exact order of a lineup makes much of a difference, but the hesitance to move Cano spoke to a greater issue of Girardi’s slow-to-change approach.

Associated Press photos

Let’s start this day with a trade proposal.

This is not my trade proposal. This suggestion was emailed to me earlier in week, and I responded with an email dismissing the idea completely. I got a reply suggesting the Yankees could sweeten the deal and still have a worthwhile trade.

I still contend this would be an awful trade for the Yankees – and I really like the player they’d be getting in return – but let’s see what you think…

Orioles get: C/DH Jesus Montero and RF Nick Swisher
Yankees get: RF Nick Markakis

Markakis is young and talented, but he’s also signed to a long-term deal making more than Swisher will make if/when the Yankees pickup his club option for this season. What’s more, the past two years, I’d take Swisher’s slash line over Markakis. If Markakis is an upgrade at all, I’m not sure it’s a significant one. It’s certainly not worth paying more salary and losing an elite prospect.

That’s what I think anyway. When I said as much, part of the response I got said this: “Honestly, it would be a great deal for both teams even if (the Yankees) threw in a pitcher.”

Thoughts?

The point of yesterday’s Joe Girardi press conference was not necessarily to break news. It was an end-of-the-year question-and answer session, a time to look back and think ahead, but not a necessarily a time to discover new information. Of course, during a slow news period like this, you always hope for some small bit of news.

Did we actually learn anything yesterday?

Maybe not, but there were some things to take away from yesterday’s 36 minutes of Girardi behind the microphone.

• Girardi said there was no hidden injury to Alex Rodriguez. Girardi said Rodriguez’s health problems, and the extent of those problems, were exactly as they were portrayed publicly. I thought yesterday might be a time for Girardi to said, “Yes, Alex’s knee was bothering him more than we let on,” but Girardi said that wasn’t the case.

• The public support to Russell Martin is telling. Common speculation has been that Martin will be back and Jesus Montero will takeover as the regular designated hitter. Girardi seemed to introduce that very idea yesterday. Makes it seem more and more likely.

• Brian Cashman said it after Game 5, and Girardi said it yesterday: The rotation is the Yankees focus this offseason. Speculate all you want about trades and signings to add a big bat, but pitching really is the most obvious need.

• Maybe I’m wrong, but Girardi actually did seem more open to lineup changes yesterday. In the past he seemed to always give vague answers about looking into different batting orders, while immediately defending the current alignment. Yesterday, every suggestion was met with Girardi saying he was open to something new. The fact he actually did move Robinson Cano up to the No. 3 spot at the end of the regular season makes me believe he’s honestly willing to consider changes.

• There’s no easy way to deal with the Jorge Posada situation. Everyone, including Girardi, sees the writing on the wall. Posada seemed to see it when he made that tearful exit during his postgame interview on Thursday.

• Was there a single mention of the bullpen yesterday? I don’t think there was. For a team with a 42-year-old closer, one setup man coming back from Tommy John, another with an opt out this winter, and a left-hander likely to miss a second straight season, the Yankees bullpen doesn’t have many questions. It’s deep enough that if Rafael Soriano does opt out of that massive contract, it would be a blessing.

• Is it just me, or does it seem like Girardi spent the past four days thinking, “How in the world did we lose that series?”

Associated Press photo

Here’s the announcement from the Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory…

Louisville, KY (October 12, 2011) — Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory added another superstar to its roster Wednesday as it unveiled a lifelike sculpture of Derek Jeter, team captain of the New York Yankees and future baseball Hall of Famer.

To welcome the new sculpture, the museum will celebrate “Derek Jeter Day” this Saturday, honoring the Yankee Captain. As part of the celebration, a game used Derek Jeter bat will be added to the museum’s Hold a Piece of History exhibit, allowing guests to hold a bat actually used by Jeter. Guests will also receive Jeter mini bats at the conclusion of each factory tour, while supplies last.

In addition, for “Derek Jeter Day” the museum will offer a special $2 admission in recognition of Jeter’s #2 jersey. Proceeds from Saturday’s ticket sales will be donated to Derek Jeter’s Turn 2 Foundation.

“We are thrilled to feature Derek Jeter in the museum,” said Anne Jewell, Executive Director at Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory. “Jeter is a baseball rockstar, an ambassador for the game and a huge fan favorite. We’re proud to include him in our lineup of baseball greats and we know our guests will love it. ”

Jeter, the longtime Yankees shortstop, joins elite company as he is just the fourth person honored with a statue at Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory. The only other player sculptures in the museum are baseball legends Babe Ruth, Ted Williams and Ken Griffey, Jr.

“It’s a true honor to be recognized in this way by Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory,” said Derek Jeter. “Louisville Slugger is synonymous with baseball. I’ve used the same bat model (P72) throughout my career and it’s a privilege to have such a tribute in this great museum devoted to the skill and history of hitting,” he said.

Since his major league debut in 1995, Jeter has been one of baseball’s most popular figures and is currently the all-time New York Yankees hit leader. He has been selected as an All-Star 12 times, won the Silver Slugger award four times and earned the Gold Glove award on five occasions. He won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1996 and helped the Yankees win the World Series the same year.

Jeter was also an integral part of World Series championship-winning teams in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009. He is the only player in history to win both the All-Star Game MVP Award and the World Series MVP Award in the same year. He has served as the Yankees’ team captain since 2003 and collected his 3,000th career hit earlier this season.

The sculpture unveiling coincides with Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory’s 15th Anniversary Year. In May, the museum welcomed its record 3-millionth guest. With 234,771 visitors last year, Louisville Slugger Museum & Factory broke its attendance record in 2010; a record unmatched since the museum opened for its first full year in 1997.

Photo from Louisville Slugger

Yesterday, the Yankees made their first three 40-man roster cuts, losing Aaron Laffey to a waiver claim and letting Raul Valdes and Scott Proctor choose free agency before being outrighted.

Those surely won’t be the only casualties.

As it stands, the 40-man roster is at 37 players, but that’s not counting the seven guys on the 60-day disabled list. There’s no hiding someone on the 60-day in the offseason, which means the Yankees have to trim from 44. There are plenty of players who could go.

On the 60-day disabled list
Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, Damaso Marte, Sergio Mitre, Reegie Corona, Colin Curtis, Justin Maxwell

Of these seven, Chamberlain is the only one who absolutely must stay. Marte is headed for free agency, so he’s an easy cut. Same for Mitre, who’s already been through his three arbitration years and doesn’t have an obvious role to play next season. Feliciano probably stays just in case he’s able to pitch next year. The Yankees didn’t dump Marte when he was hurt, hard to imagine they’ll dump Feliciano.

Corona and Curtis each missed all of 2010 with injuries, so they could probably slip through waivers (Corona easier than Curtis). If their claimed, the Yankees have similar players in the system. Maxwell is a more difficult call because he’s coming off a good Triple-A season that was cut short. The Yankees could remove him if they need the roster space, but there’s some risk of a claim.

Heading for free agency
Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, Jorge Posada

The Yankees are likely to need a veteran corner infielder and a right-handed outfielder, so Chavez and Jones aren’t completely out of the question for 2012. There’s at least one report that Chavez is leaning toward retirement, but Jones will surely want to play again, and he did his job well this season. Everyone knows the Posada situation.

Colon and Garcia could provide rotation depth, but at what cost? Garcia’s season almost certainly earned him a guaranteed contract somewhere, and if the Yankees are aggressive in finding potential starters, Garcia might find a better opportunity elsewhere. Colon would be a kind of wild card. It’s hard to get the lightning back in the bottle.

Could go if necessary
Luis Ayala, Kevin Whelan, Greg Golson, Melky Mesa

Ayala pitched well enough to stay, but the Yankees might not want to guarantee him a roster spot, especially if they get into a roster crunch. I guess Cory Wade could also fit in this group, but he was good enough — and trusted in big enough situations — to suggest the Yankees like what they’ve seen. To me, bringing Wade back is an easy call, especially at the cost. It also seems like the Yankees plan to bring back Russell Martin, so I didn’t list him. Same for Nick Swisher and his 2012 club option.

Guys like Whelan, Golson and Mesa haven’t necessarily done anything to lose their spots, but Golson should be out of options next year, Whelan wasn’t given a September call-up and Mesa is coming off a bad year in Double-A. The Yankees relative lack of upper-level outfielders might keep Mesa’s spot safe — Whelan’s numbers and Golson’s familiarity might do the same — but these spots could be opened without creating significant problems for the Yankees.

Associated Press photo

It’s not new to see Yankees amateur scouting director Damon Oppenheimer’s name pop up on a list of potential general manager candidates. He’s a recurring character on those lists, with Yankees pro scouting director Billy Eppler making occasional appearances of his own.

Most recently, Oppenheimer’s name showed up in the Baltimore Sun as a possible replacement for Andy McPhail, who’s not coming back to run the Orioles next season. Oppenheimer has also been mentioned as a candidate for the Angels’ general manager opening.

Oppenheimer’s become a hugely valuable piece of the Yankees organization. Ten players from the Yankees 2006 draft class have advanced to the big leagues — that’s a massive number for one class — and the farm system has grown to be widely respected and effective, thanks in large part to a recent batch of pitchers drafted by Oppenheimer.

There is a report out of Boston that Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein has a five-year deal in place to join the Chicago Cubs front office. The story began making the rounds last night, and WEEI reports that the deal is expected to be announced by the end of the week.

The Red Sox don’t seem to be commenting on the situation.

For more on the situation in Boston — the team’s collapse and everything that led to this already uncertain offseason — be sure to check out this piece in today’s Boston Globe.

We’ll start the day with a few little nuggets leftover from yesterday’s Joe Girardi press conference.

We’ll begin with Girardi’s comment on the possibility of Jorge Posada having played his last game with the Yankees.

“I can’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen with Jorge,” Girardi said. “But whenever you do say goodbye to someone, it’s difficult. I could tell how difficult that last day was with him.

“Jorge is a fiery guy. Jorge brings an intensity every day and when a player leaves and a new player comes in — and I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen — the important thing is the guy is who he is, and he doesn’t try to be someone else because when you try to be someone that you’re not, I think it ends up hurting you in the long run.

“But whenever Jorge does decide to call it quits, and if this was it, we’re going to miss him. No doubt about it. We’re going to miss that intensity and what he brought to the game every day. Someone’s going to have to bring that or their own personality.”

• On CC Sabathia’s weight gain during the season: “He gained a few pounds, but I don’t think it affected him,” Girardi said. “A lot of players put on a few pounds during the course of a season, some will lose a few. It’s different. I happened to be a guy that stayed exactly the same the whole year long. But I don’t think it affected him. CC works very hard and he actually pitched lighter than he did probably last year.”

• Girardi indicated that he expects all of his coaches to come back next season. “The first guy that probably has to get done is Brian Cashman,” Girardi said. “And that’s something that we’ll talk about. My coaches worked hard, and I was happy with my coaches, but that’s something I’ll talk with Brian when and if he gets done. That’s not something I’m really ready to approach yet.”

An issue that seemed dead came back to life yesterday. Were the Yankees too home run dependent this season? “I think our offense became a little more diversified this year with the speed we had and the stolen bases, and we could score runs necessarily without hitting the long ball,” Girardi said. “But that’s part of who we are and part of the age we live in. You look at a lot of clubs, up and down a lineup, you might have five or six guys that can hit 20 home runs. That’s just the age… But I think from a speed standpoint, we can do a lot more things. We could do a lot more things this year than maybe in the years previous.”

• What was Girardi’s message to the team after the Game 5 loss? “I told them that there was really nothing I could say that was going to make anyone in that room feel any better,” Girardi said. “There really wasn’t. I thought they played hard all year long. I thought they gave us everything they got. And I thought they played like champions would play, even thought we’re not going to be champs this season. That was gist of my message.”

• One random tidbit: Girardi said he still hasn’t spoken to Hal Steinbrenner since the end of the division series. He saw Steinbrenner on the day of Game 5, but the two haven’t spoken since.

• Has Girardi been watching the playoffs? “A little bit, not a lot,” he said. “I’ve been pretty busy with my family. Sometimes when you lose in the fashion that we did, it’s kind of hard to turn it on.”

Associated Press photos

First the Red Sox cut ties with manager Terry Francona, now it seems general manager Theo Epstein might be on his way out.

While the Tigers have taken a lead in Game 3 of the ALCS, this has been the bubbling behind-the-scenes baseball story of the night. The Boston Herald reported that a deal is on the cusp for Epstein to leave the Red Sox to accept a larger role with the Cubs. Various other reports suggest the move expected to happen, but it’s not quite a done deal. The Cubs would have to provide some sort of compensation, players or cash.

According to my old friend Pete Abraham at the Boston Globe:

If Epstein leaves, the Red Sox have given every indication that senior vice president and assistant general manager Ben Cherington would replace him. A 36-year-old New Hampshire native and Amherst graduate, Cherington has been with the Red Sox since 1999.

Joe Girardi spent a lot of time talking today about luck, a whether luck plays a role in a five-game series. Clearly the Yankees had a good offense this season (second-most runs in baseball) and clearly they had a productive offense in the division series (they outscored the Tigers 28-17) but some hits didn’t come at the right time.

“Please, make no mistake, Detroit wasn’t lucky,” Girardi said. “Detroit beat us. But some of your at-bats can be a product of just good fortune. You can get jammed and get a base hit, or you can hit a rocket and it gets caught. The bottom line is you have to have good at-bats. I thought our guys had some good at-bats. I do. We just didn’t get that big hit when we really needed it, whether it was the last day or Game 2 or Game 3. We just never got the one hit that kind of put us over the top. I’d have to go back and look at every at-bat to say whether it was a good at-bat, but the bottom line is we didn’t have enough good at-bats because we’re sitting here talking.”

Today, when Girardi talked about his pitchers, he talked a lot about next year. When he talked about his hitters, he focused on this year. He sounded like a man expecting to have more or less the same lineup next season.

Here’s the audio from today.

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On whether he thinks Alex Rodriguez can play 145-150 games next season
“I do. His meniscus tear is kind of a freak thing. That’s not something that you necessarily worry about. If it’s a ligament or something that’s stretched, yeah, you worry. But meniscus tears happen all the time, people come back, and it’s something that can never happen again. But he is older, and it’s something that, as the manager, I have to manage. I have to manage his playing time.”

On the production of Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira this season
“Tex had 30 and 100, and Alex didn’t play for basically nine or 10 weeks this year. If he plays those nine or 10 weeks, does he have 30 and 100? He probably does. Alex is someone that we need to keep healthy. That’s first and foremost, then you can see exactly what you have. Players have to make adjustments at times, and I’m sure our players will try to make some adjustments to try to try to get their numbers back to what they’re used to having them at.”

On whether he could have changed the lineup in the division series
“These are guys that have done it for us all year. I guess I could have hit Gardy fourth, stack my lefthanders? But these are guys that have done it for you, and you expect they’re going to do it. The way it worked out, Gardy was productive where he was at, so we left him. We kept that Derek-Gardy thing together, which we like. And one of the reasons we kept the same lineup was that we faced four right-handers. Usually a lineup changes when you face right-handers or left-handers. Our lineup would have drastically changed if we faced left-handers. We just didn’t have one.
“Is there anything I would have done different? You can think about it, but you go into a series prepared, you have an idea of what you want to do. Sometimes things change because of the weather, or minor injury to a pitcher, or things that you have to do. I really liked our chances, but the bottom line is we didn’t get it done. And it starts with me.”

On the idea of Gardner hitting leadoff next season
“We’re going to look at everything and how it fits the best, our lineup. Derek, you look at his second-half numbers, he did a tremendous job and did a tremendous job in the leadoff role. But Gardy’s a guy that can create a lot of problems at the top of the order, and the only time they don’t hit together is the first time through the lineup, and then they’re together. I thought Gardy grew up in the playoffs some, I did. It’s something we’re going to look at.”

On the possibility of shaking up the middle of the order; keeping Cano third
“Those are all possibilities. You have all winter to think about different ways you can put your lineup together, longer than I would like. The other thing is, are we going to add? If we add someone, how do they fit into the lineup? These are definitely things I’ll think about all winter long. As we get closer to spring training, you’ll have a better idea of what you want to do because you’ll know exactly who you have.”

On whether Nick Swisher’s postseason struggles factor into the decision to bring him back next season
“I think when we sit down as a group we talk about everything. You don’t just take a two-week period or a month or two months, you look at everything and he’s been an on-base guy for us. He’s driven in runs. He’s hit home runs for us. I think he plays a better right field than people give him credit for, too. But as you look at your players and you try to improve your club and that’s something we always try to do, you have to take everything into account.”

On whether the Yankees need another Eric Chavez type to fill time at third
“I think Nuney can be that guy, because Nuney can play second, short or third. You might add a corner guy, possibly, who can play third and first and have some pop. I’m sure we’ll look at doing that just like we added Chavez this year. But I think Nuney’s a guy who can play all over for us. He might even play more positions for us next year.”

On the expectation for Derek Jeter
“We expect him to have another good year and be productive for us. To get beyond the injury he had, he came back and was sensational for us. Offensively, he played at a very high level. Defensively, he played very well for us. So you have those expectations. You hope that 5 months doesn’t necessarily change a whole lot of things. But when you’re an older player, people are always going to wonder. If he was 28, people would expect him to come back and do the same thing. But because he’s 37, people are always going to wonder. I know he’ll work very hard this year and try to keep himself in tremendous shape and be ready to go.”

Associated Press photos