High demands in slow trade market
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 05, 2011 
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Part of the reason for a slow winter: High asking prices on the trade market.
Even with CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia locked up, Brian Cashman’s made it clear that he’s still interested in starting pitchers. The White Sox are reportedly shopping starters, including John Danks, but the prices are astronomical.
“Kenny (Williams) asked for everyone on our roster in return,” a source told the Chicago Sun-Times.
Jon Heyman says the asking price for Danks was both Jesus Montero and Manny Banuelos, and the Yankes obviously aren’t willing to give up that much. It’s a thin rotation market, and it’s hard to blame the White Sox for trying to take advantage. For now, though, such demands are keeping things from happening.
Chip – Cespedes has been pegged for AAA by most teams looking at him, he’s not a replacement candidate for you to trade Gardner away.
If the Yankees are willing to take back Thornton’s contract (or Adam Dunn’s) I wonder how much Kenny’s asking price would drop.
I think that Danks and Thornton for Gardner, Warren and Gary Sanchez is a reasonably fair deal. Kenny gets two guys he can put on the ML roster right away and Sanchez is a top prospect.
You almost wonder if Cashman and KW are trying to inflate each other’s merchandise.
Sox say they want Montero + Banuelos for Danks.
Yanks counter by saying they would trade neither for Danks but they still like him.
I fail to see the insult in there.
Irreverent Discourse December 5th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Chip – Cespedes has been pegged for AAA by most teams looking at him, he’s not a replacement candidate for you to trade Gardner away.
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at $50 mil I don’t see him playing in AAA for anyone for very long.
And if you have to, you go out and get a stop gap OF to carry the water for the first half of the season until you feel Cespedes is ready.
I don’t think the Yankees will trade Gary Sanchez.
Bret -
Well some of these catchers (and pitchers) are going to have to be traded. You can’t have them all on the roster at the same time.
What is an A prospect? I’ll tell you now straight up front what it’s not.
It’s not Romine, Noesi, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, Betances.
It’s not any of the grab bag of nothing fans want to throw at KW for Danks.
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Betances is a top 50 guy so you’re saying Williams will get a top 25 prospect for Danks.
Top 25 prospect for one year of Danks coming off a down year and arb 3 eligible?
No chance.
Betances isn’t an A prospect?
You’re not trading Montero right now, and it makes zero sense to deal Romine since he’s the guy you’re going to call up when/if someone gets hurt.
Even assuming a really good progression for Sanchez, he’s not going to impact the team for at least 3 or 4 years. I think Cashman would much rather deal a guy that far away with great upside (think Vizciano) than a guy who is more likely to impact the team in the next year or two.
Hasn’t it been established that KW likes Betances but not as a centerpiece?
Yes it has.
“Hasn’t it been established that KW likes Betances but not as a centerpiece?”
Posturing……my guess is that’s the guy he realistically wants.
“Betances isn’t an A prospect?”
That could inspire an epic poem! I’ll get to work.
Blake,
I think he goes for top 25 prospect or a high pick since Danks will be a Type A.
THREE years of Matt Garza netted Chris Archer who was in the 20-30 range.
TWO years of Marcum got Lawrie who was a top 50 prospect.
We’ve known for a while now that the Diamondbacks are targeting free agent righty Hiroki Kuroda. According to a tweet from Yahoo’s Steve Henson, an official says a deal could get done this week if the 36-year-old drops his demand for a second-year player option.
————————————————–
If the Yankees are looking for another pitcher, but for a year only, rather than FA rental Danks, Kuroda might be a better option. I’m sure all of you have read the NY Post article by Joel Sherman that was referenced by Chad in the chat today. The new ramifications of the luxury tax for 2014 could very well incentivize the Yankees to keep payroll below 189M.
The market for pitching favors the seller big time this off season.
Either Kenny Williams has been drinking early or he’s positioning himself with the Jack Z’s of the world that Cashman won’t do business with.
Two years of Greinke got Alcides Escobar, who was a top 25 according to BA even though he blows.
Bret The Hitman December 5th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Blake,
I think he goes for top 25 prospect or a high pick since Danks will be a Type A.
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Or KW risks losing him for a third round pick much the way the Mets just lost Jose.
“I think he goes for top 25 prospect or a high pick since Danks will be a Type A.”
I don’t see it…..look at who those players are…..and then pick out the ones on teams that would have interest in Danks……
Only a contending team souls have interest in Danks for one year……are the Rangers trading Profar or Perez? Are the Angels trading Trout? Are the Yanks trading Montero or Banuelos? The Red Sox don’t have a top 25 prospect……
Chip – I don’t really see him getting the $50mil he wants, there’s way too much uncertainty surrounding him.
LGY -
I get your point but the White Sox are in a different spot with Danks than Tampa Bay was with Garza or KC was with Greinke.
The White Sox financially “could” re-sign Danks.
The Royals were never going to re-sign Greinke so they opted to trade him early to try and get more for him than the Indians (for example) got for CC and the Rays also needed to clear payroll.
I think in Kenny’s spot (much like Jack’s with Felix) he’s under no pressure to make the deal so he can hold out for what he wants.
As I suggested – sweeten the pot by taking back a bad contract and lower the level of prospect going back.
Irreverent Discourse December 5th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
Chip – I don’t really see him getting the $50mil he wants, there’s way too much uncertainty surrounding him.
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Not really any more or less uncertainty than there was in Matsui – factor in the inflation of baseball contracts since Hideki came over and the price sounds about right.
As I understood Sherman’s article on the Yankees trying to the get the budget down to $189 million, it would automatically break their streak (so the speak) of being a repeat offender on going over the luxury tax threshold, and once they do that, even once, it significantly lessens the penalty for them, and then with each ensuing year, the penalty would go down further (up to the 3 years he discusses). So as I see it, the Yankees really only have to get their budget to the threshold that one time so they they avoid paying the 100% tax. And then, I guess they can play it by ear.
Gio Gonzalez fits that budget scheme.
Also, if I’m understanding correctly, if they are below the luxury tax threshold, it limits the amount of luxury tax funds large market teams (Washington and Toronto) in their region can collect?
And this is where I always get confused. pat is good with this, but I never recall, between revenue sharing and luxury tax, one amount goes to other teams, and the other goes into an MLB fund of some sort?
The Sox are trying to move Danks because they need to cut salary and rebuild their farm system.
They don’t have any plans to extend him and Danks has giving no indication he’s willing to extend.
Chip – Just seems like a lot for a guy I’ve seen compared to Aaron Roward.
Rowand that is.
The White Sox raised their payroll from 103 to 127 last year.
They already have 94 million on the books for 2012 before arb or signing anyone.
You guys are WAY off. The Yanks aint trading cheap, young, prospects while Darvish remains in play. The Yanks will win the bidding and sign Darvish for Big $$$. They also plan on extending Cano for Big $$$. Those are the only Big Time expenditures they are planning on with that 2014\$189 Mill payroll approaching. The young talent Cashman has stock piled is gonna be use to infuse\subsidize the 25 Man Roster. The Yanks will NOT be surrendering top young talent on expensive, short-term rentals like Danks. A-Rod and that $30 Mill per are a serious monkey wrench in reaching that $189 Mill figure.
Peavy comes off the books after 2012.
Nice post Donnybrook . . .i agree 100 percent
@Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
Interesting note: #Yankee internally view CF Mason Willams, picked in ’10, not play above Rook ball, as being good a prospect as they have
Joelsherman1 Joel Sherman
Mason Williams just 20, #Yankees think 5 tools, adaptability, loves game will move fast. Likely to play in Hi-A in FSL next yr.
looks like mason williams is turning a few heads. 5 tool?
I don’t think so Donny. Gio Gonzalez fits that payroll scheme better than Darvish. Darvish will make 15 million per season.
Villa-
The Yankees have more incentive if they keep the payroll under 189M for all 3 years starting in 2014. From Sherman’s NY Post article:
If they are at $189 million or less for the three seasons from 2014-16, they not only avoid paying one cent in luxury tax, which would rise to 50 percent for them as repeat offenders, but they also would get roughly $40 million in savings via the to-be-implemented market disqualification revenue sharing program. However, only teams under the luxury-tax threshold get reimbursed in this program, which is designed to prevent big markets such as Toronto and Washington from receiving revenue sharing dollars, which in turn will lower how much teams such as the Yanks pay (as long as they are under the threshold).
And even if they just went under $189 million for 2014 before going over again in 2015, the Yankees would receive serious benefits. They would get about $10 million in the revenue sharing disqualification program. Also, by simply going under the threshold once, the Yankees would go back to having a 17.5 percent tax rather than the 50 percent that begins in 2014 for them if they never go under. Keep in mind that since the luxury tax went to 40 percent for them in 2005, the Yankees have averaged paying $25.75 million in tax annually
Those are the only Big Time expenditures they are planning on with that 2014\$189 Mill payroll approaching
=============================
So you see 2013 as the end for Granderson as a Yankee?
The White Sox have already lowered their demands and Cash hasn’t even arrived yet!
“@Joelsherman1: At present #Whitesox askign #Yankees for Banuelos on Danks. Yanks won’t do that for walk-yr, No. 2-3 starter. But Chi does like (cont)”
Gio Gonzalez has a 4 BB/9.
4
Just say no.
Gio would also require more talent to acquire than someone like Danks anyway, as he is under team control for another 4 full seasons.
Darvish will make 15 million per season
==============================
No he won’t.
In two years, Marlins will be due for their bi-decade firesale…
If Darvish is a #2 how can he not make 15 million per season while Burnett and Lackey do? and CJ Wilson is about to bankroll after being a reliever most of his career?
Regardless of what the player makes\$$$ the Yanks get in return, they are surrendering cheap, young talent that Cashman plans on using to infuse\subsidize the Major League roster in the future. Gio and arbitration are gonna cost far more than the kids Cashman would have to surrender to get him. You can NOT just look at what a player or players are currently making. You gotta look down the road toward what a player is gonna cost\make in 2014.
-DOGFACE-
I see Cashman dealing Grandy, and believe he is already testing Grandy’s value and the current level of interest of other clubs.
ac1 is totally right
it’s just a matter of time down there before things blow up
If Darvish is a #2 how can he not make 15 million per season while Burnett and Lackey do?
================================
Because he won’t be a free agent. He’ll be able to negotiate with one team only. His choice is to take what that team offers him or go back to Japan and make $4.5M. Nobody is posting $40M plus and giving him $15M per, when the chances of him being a #2 are speculative at best.
Bret-
Darvish made 4.2M by one article I read, 6M by other last season. He will sign with a team for much less than 15M/season. Look at 8M, if he even agrees on posting.
Donnybrook-
ARods salary is 25M this season and dimishes therafter. I’ll post it when I look it up on Cots. The homerun record incentives do count toward the luxury tax.
Thanks, Yankee Trader. So, it’s revenue sharing that they can prevent from going to those other teams. And it’s a 50% tax, not 100%.
But it will be interesting to see if (a) they can get to a $189 million budget at all, and (b) how long they go with it.
I’m hoping it works out, even if it turns out to be a mere 1-3 year “timeout” from spending closer to $200 million.
My feeling is they do get the budget to $189 million for the first year, and after that, they’ll re-assess the landscape.
He’s not making less than Dice K.
-Mike Ri -
Thanks
Darvish Prediction – $32mil post, literally a few hundred grand more than Matsuzaka for the “respect” nonsense… then 5/$60m contract.
12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M
$30M marketing agreement based on home run milestones ($6M each for reaching 660, 714, 755 and tying and breaking major league HR record).
ARod is at 25M in 2014, 29M next season, made 31M this past season.
Sorry, that’s $52m for the posting fee prediction… not $32m
ARods salary is 25M this season and dimishes therafter. I’ll post it when I look it up on Cots. The homerun record incentives do count toward the luxury tax
=========================
My understanding is that for luxury tax purposes, he’s at $27.5M per year and the incentives aren’t factored in til he hits him, so his cap hit could increase later in the contract.
For reference, the Matsuzaka contract.
6 years/$52M (2007-12)
posted by Seibu Lions 11/06, with Boston submitting high bid of $51,111,111 to Seibu to acquire negotiating rights with Matsuzaka for 30 days
signed by Boston 12/06
$2M signing bonus
07:$6M, 08:$8M, 09:$8M, 10:$8M, 11:$10M, 12:$10M
full no-trade clause:may not be traded without consent, provided player gets his first day of Major League service during a guaranteed contract of at least 6 years after player has been with a professional baseball league team other than a major or minor league team
award bonuses: $0.5M for MVP ($0.125M for 2nd, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th), $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.4M for 2nd, $0.3M for 3rd), $0.1M All Star start ($50,000 for All Star selection), $0.15M for WS/LCS MVP, $50,000 for Gold Glove, $25,000 for Rookie of Year
may not be sent to minor leagues
escalators may increase contract value to total of $60M:
2009 & 2010 salaries increase to $10M with:
Cy Young award in 2007 or 2008, or
top 3 in Cy Young vote in 2007 and 2008, or
MVP award in 2007 or 2008, or
top 5 in MVP vote in 2007 and 2008
2011 & 2012 salaries increase to $12M with:
Cy Young award in 2009 or 2010, or
top 3 in Cy Young vote in 2009 and 2010, or
MVP award in 2009 or 2010, or
top 5 in MVP vote in 2009 and 2010
perks: physical therapist, massage therapist, interpreter, 8 first-class round-trip airline tickets per year between Boston & Japan, spring training housing allowance of up to $25,000, Boston housing allowance of up to $75,000, one-time moving allowance of up to $35,000, use of Lincoln Town Car or similar car, Red Sox player ticket package, including 2 field box seats, team employee to assist Japanese media, uniform No. 18
What a waste of time all those escalators were, hahaha.
Villa-
The Yankees have guaranteed contracts in 2014 of about 78M for A-Rod, CC, Tex and Jeter if he picks up the 8M option. Of course Cano and possibly Granderson will be extended.
John Heyman on the WFAN . …. for those who care .. lol lol
I’m no Cashman guy, but I gotta give him credit. His stock piling all that talent in the Minors has come at just the right time considering the new CBA. Cheap, young talent, especially cheap, young arms, are gonna be the coin of the realm, and save the Steinbrenner’s\Yanks a TON of tax penalty $$$$. Thornton’s 2yrs\$12 Mill used to be chump change to the Yanks. That simply aint the case Now.
KW knew from the start he wasn’t getting Montero or Banuelos ….Williams likes to make deals so my guess is he will keep working at it. Betances’s name as a centerpiece will be next.
AndrewMarchand Stick: I thought Manny B would come quicker, but “he’ll figure it out.” . es.pn/vjE8Ep
AndrewMarchand To me, Stick’s comments show how seriously the Yanks thought Banuelos could contribute last year.
AndrewMarchand The kid is just 20 so he likely will figure it out. Remember last spring, Mo told me Banuelos is the best pitching prospect he has ever seen
The whole “just money” argument misses a really important fact. When you have a budget……that money ties you up from making other moves …..so if you give a big contract then it better work out or your team is going to be worse for it.
Signing FA’s can be much more risky than making trades…..it all depends on his much money and which players are involved.
They thought Banuelos would come up faster than 20?
Again, while Darvish remains in play, no way Cashman surrenders a Top Yankee Arm for Danks-The- Rental.
Chip-
You brought up the point about lessening the offer for Danks if Thornton was trhrown in the deal. The more I think about it, it pays Williams to make 2 separate deal-give away all of Thornton’s contract for a lesser prospect. Trade Danks to the highest bidder.
Yankees Trader -
Makes it that much more important for the prospects to deliver.
I can’t imagine them not extending Cano, and it would only be good if they are in a position to want to extend Granderson, too (meaning he’s had continued success and is not slowing down too much). They have a couple of low-level outfield prospects who will warrant watching, though.
The only way Darvish starts out at $15M a year is if he bides his time in Japan.
And how can anyone begrudge the Yankees for wanting to get the payroll down to some? It’s not like they’re selling off the team.
When Mike Stanton finally puts on his pinstripes and starts clubbing bombs into the left-center bleachers, we’ll all be asking “Curtis/Gardner/Swisher” who? He’ll be our best outfielder of that kind since Dave Winfield (I consider O’Neill a different style of player)
With 2014\$189 Mill in the cross hairs, it is better to pay Darvish $12 Mill per for several seasons, (guess), than trade for Danks-The Rental, and surrender the cheap, young players that are needed to infuse\subsidize the Yankee roster going forward.
I’m less and less inclined to think that Cashman is trading any of Montero, Romine, Banuelos and Betances. If lowering payroll is important, then Banuelos and Betances take the available slot vacated by AJ in 2 years. Garcia is replacable either ‘now’ or in 2012 by Noesi.
Its conceivable – conceivable- that should the talent play out the way we’ve heard, that a Yankee rotation led by CC with his large contract, could be followed by any combination of Banuelos, Hughes, Nova, Noesi, and Betances. That’s not only potentially impressive, but overall pretty darn affordable.
“With 2014\$189 Mill in the cross hairs, it is better to pay Darvish $12 Mill per for several seasons, (guess), than trade for Danks-The Rental, and surrender the cheap, young players that are needed to infuse\subsidize the Yankee roster going forward.”
Again…..it depends on which players you deal and how much Darvish costs……and also whether he is successful. All of those pitching prospects aren’t going to fit in the big league rotation……
Its conceivable – conceivable- that should the talent play out the way we’ve heard, that a Yankee rotation led by CC with his large contract, could be followed by any combination of Banuelos, Hughes, Nova, Noesi, and Betances. That’s not only potentially impressive, but overall pretty darn affordable
======================================
Hughes will be making real money by then (Arb 3 in ’13, free agent in ’14), but the balance of the projected starters will be very affordable.
No thanks on Danks.
blake December 5th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
They thought Banuelos would come up faster than 20?
***********
Kershaw broke in when he was 20 – so yeah – Banuelos is generational – given the players people will not trade him for – it is not unexpected for Stick to say that
I’m fairly convinced Banuelos is off-limits.
As I understand it, the bid $$$ does Not count against the Yankee Payroll. Therefore, Only Darvish’s salary would. Williams wants a Top Yankee Arm in the Danks package? Forget it.
Hassey – So… he’ll be our worst outfielder?
MLB Network will start it’s 5 hr Live coverage of the Winter Meetings in about 15 Minutes. The rumors should be flyin’.
Time to “check out” from baseball news for a few days. I suggest you all stop checking twitter until the meetings are over. You’ll just drive yourself crazy with senseless and baseless rumors.
@GordonEdes Gordon Edes
One AL West rival: A’s are going to move Gio Gonzalez
Irreverent Discourse December 5th, 2011 at 2:50 pm
Time to ?check out? from baseball news for a few days. I suggest you all stop checking twitter until the meetings are over. You?ll just drive yourself crazy with senseless and baseless rumors.
********************
One very easy way to do that would just be to “unfollow” Heyman
That should read: A’s are going to try to find someone to overpay for Gonzalez. NL or bust for him.
“Kershaw broke in when he was 20 – so yeah – Banuelos is generational – given the players people will not trade him for – it is not unexpected for Stick to say that”
True but considering the innings limitations they work with it seems unrealistic unless he meant to help in the pen last year…..
GM’s looking down the road= $$$= GIO
dogface – even if Hughes were making $5-$8M by 2013/2014, that’s chump change for the Yankees. Still affordable. He needs to regain his 2010 form to be eligible for good starter money.
erin – Oh, I would have a very hard time doing that with my non-existant twitter account
If anything he’ll be worth the entertainment. Let’s see how many deals he can be wrong about this year!
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
The White Sox raised their payroll from 103 to 127 last year.
They already have 94 million on the books for 2012 before arb or signing anyone.
—————-
I’ve asked this before – if you’re the White Sox and you’re looking to cut salary – doesn’t it make more sense to just let Peavy and Floyd play out their contracts than to trade away your best pitcher unless you’re getting exactly what you want for him?
I mean if Williams gets his dream offer for Danks, then sure, you make the deal – but short of that if I was a GM looking at this same roster I would think that I can keep Danks for this year, open up a ton of payroll next winter and make an effort to re-sign Danks.
If that’s the case – then I don’t see the Yankees and White Sox matching up – Cashman has often said he’s fine making a trade for a pitcher, he’s fine giving a pitcher a big contract – he’s not so fine with trading valuable assets for a pitcher he’s then going to have to sign to a big contract.
@Ben_Duronio: Report: Heyman said on WFAN ATL asking price for Jurrjens would be Gardner, Nunez, Romine… Pretty steep.
Gardner gone yet
For Jurrjens?!?!
This trade market is a joke, I hope the Yankees stay far, far away from it.
Bret The Hitman December 5th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
I’m fairly convinced Banuelos is off-limits.
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I’m fairly convinced that there is no such thing as a player being “off limits.” There are players it is harder to trade for than others, and the probability of trading for certain players is extremely low – but anyone could be traded for…even Cano…given the right set of circumstances.
“@Ben_Duronio: Report: Heyman said on WFAN ATL asking price for Jurrjens would be Gardner, Nunez, Romine… Pretty steep.”
Take Gardner out and id think about it
Joba_62 The new @mlbfancave is looking 4 new people 2 watch every game next season apply at mlbfancave.com. Do it, it’s an amazing experience!
Oh, now Cespedes wants $60mil
This guys expectations are totally realistic, rofl…
heh. Gardner is the only piece I’d leave in if it means I can keep Nunez and Romine.
The White Sox need to cut salary THIS year.
And their farm system is terrible. Danks is their best trade chip to bring some young talent in and get back on the right track.
id,
he can ask for anything. he won’t get it unless he asks.
my guess is that he signs for 6/40.
As much as some of you seem to love to try, Gardner and AJ will both start the season in pinstripes.
Irreverent Discourse December 5th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
For Jurrjens?!?!
This trade market is a joke, I hope the Yankees stay far, far away from it.
————-
What do you expect them to ask for, Corban Joseph, Colin Curtis and Kevin Whalen?
Not everyone has the same high opinion of Yankee prospects as we do.
Atlanta’s demands for Jurrjens and KW’s demands for Danks lead me to believe that those teams are not in serious discussions with anyone yet. They are merely posturing and advertising.
Williams is lucky to have a job after that debacle of a team he put together last season. He has gotta be shakin’ in his boots and will take Less than he feels a player is worth in order to cut the team payroll. If he sticks with the players he has, he ends up paying the same amount for a losing team AND he loses his job.
heh. Gardner is the only piece I’d leave in if it means I can keep Nunez and Romine.
—————
Why would you keep a utility IF and AAA catcher over their starting LF?
kd – yeah… but you would think a guy that just snuck out from under the oppressive boot of Cuba would be happy with any amount of money, not making demands. just shows you who he is.
Chip – Jurrjens is extremely overrated. I wouldn’t trade for him at any price.
,Why would you keep a utility IF and AAA catcher over their starting LF?”
Yea I just don’t get it…
Nunez is a potential emergency third baseman and a starting shortstop for many teams. Romine is potentially a starting catcher. Gardner is a near 30 year old corner outfielder with a low 700′s OPS. If Atlanta wants Gardner, they can have him but not much else for Jurrjens.
near 30 rofl, you disparage players with great ease Bret. it’s sad, though.
“Chip – Jurrjens is extremely overrated. I wouldn’t trade for him at any price.”
If his knee is healthy he’d be the Yankees 2nd best starter……that’s the big if though.
Pass on Jurrjens.
Joba_62 Elbow is doing great. Playing long toss, flat ground and it feels awesome. Can’t thank my guys enough at ANDREWS for getting me back!!
blake – a huge if. and i wouldn’t really consider him better than nova at this point… or either of the B’s.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....-prospect/
Danks for:
Jesus Montero
Manny Banuelos
Jurrjens for:
Brett Gardner
Eduardo Nunez
Austin Romine
*****************
We need to stop talking about these guys. Neither of those GM’s has a serious offer on hand. They are advertising wildly I might add – nowhere near getting serious. It’s a waste of time.
Jurrjens has had knee problems despite knee surgery. His velocity is down. His DL time is up. No thanks.
Danks or Gonzalez wold be very good additions. I would include Betances for either. Betances and Romine for Gio or Betances and a lesser minor leaguer for DAnks.
Cashman has become exceedingly good at hiding his trade market intentions. If he was working on a serious deal I would not expect to hear anything about it until it’s done. Trying to shoehorn every single rumor into a potential deal must keep you guys up at night…
The Bs aren’t ready yet….I mean for 2012.
austinmac – why do you think Gio is good?
blake – i’d still say they are better pitchers than jurrjens though. just because their innings aren’t ready to go doesn’t mean they haven’t exceeded his mediocre talent level.
Who would the Yanks put in LF in they traded Gardner inna Jurrjens deal? You gotta have a proven everyday player to put in LF if your gonna deal Gardner. And remember you can NOT just sign a free agent\Cuddyer and jack up the team payroll with 2014 in mind.
“Danks or Gonzalez wold be very good additions. I would include Betances for either. Betances and Romine for Gio or Betances and a lesser minor leaguer for DAnks.”
My guess is if you’re willing to include Betances for Danks then ultimately you’ll be able to get him……I don’t think I would though.
I still like Gio Gonzalez and I would be willing to trade Montero for him – just have severe reservations about the second piece. I’d try to keep Banuelos out and fight to keep out Romine, Noesi or Nunez. I’d be open to Betances as the second piece though.
“blake – i’d still say they are better pitchers than jurrjens though. just because their innings aren’t ready to go doesn’t mean they haven’t exceeded his mediocre talent level.”
That’s just an inaccurate statement about him being a mediocre talent…..he’s a good pitcher when hes healthy and the velocity dip last year was from the knee. The injury risk is a factor though.
“I still like Gio Gonzalez and I would be willing to trade Montero for him –”
I like Gio too but not that much……
blake – he was a worse pitcher before the knee injury? he’s highly inconsistent at best. Neither of the B’s projects to have this low of a K rate or this high of a walk rate so yeah… I stick by my statement.
ID,
His last full season in the bigs 2009…..he threw 215 innings and had a 2.60 era……and he’s 25.
eboland11 Joe Maddon on possible balanced schedule. He’s not against but “I really like playing in our division. Its so much fun playing these teams”
And Jurrjens numbers are NL NUMBERS.
Bret – It also shows that Betances is not going to be the centerpiece of anything worthwhile.
blake – and that ERA was 2 full runs under his xFIP.
blake – he may have had some success, but it’s not success I would bet on him repeating. I certainly wouldn’t make that bet with any of the Yankees homegrown talent. They can just as easily be as inconsistent and injured as Jurrjens is.
NotBobbyV MLB Fan Cave is looking for 2 out of work losers to watch games next season. Wakefield and Varitek are 2 good options. #RedSox
ID,
Was pretty good in 2008 also and the first half of this year. He’s not a #1…..not saying he is.
“And Jurrjens numbers are NL NUMBERS.”
Darvish’s numbers are Japanese numbers.
I could see the Sox getting Hanley, Gio, Kuroda/Darvish in FA. Plus Bailey for closer and Beltran for the OF.
Some combination of Bowden/Tazawa/Middlebrooks for Gio
Raunado/Lowrie for Hanley
The Bobby V connection will get them one of Kuroda or Darvish and they need an OF so they will sign Beltran.
Theo is not going to go quiet this winter after the collapse. They also have the pieces to make things happen.
blake – i just can’t get excited about any low K, high BB pitcher. I don’t care how good/lucky they were, they shouldn’t be able to repeat it.
If you want to make moves that have the highest chance of succeeding, you don’t target players like Jurrjens, Gio Gonzalez, Danks, Buerhle…
“I could see the Sox getting Hanley, Gio, Kuroda/Darvish in FA. Plus Bailey for closer and Beltran for the OF.”
Lol
“Theo is not going to go quiet this winter after the collapse. ”
FAIL
I guess Kenny Williams is determined to prove he was the real mental patient, now that the Ozzie buffer has been removed. While all prospects are just that, it was an insult to Cash’s intelligence. How about Joba, Hughes & some WS tix for Danks & Thornton. See Kenny, 2 can play your game. . ..
No I’m having me a siesta. Wake me up on Christmas Eve.
blake – lol i wonder if “yanks 27″ even knows what team Theo works for now.
-BLAKE -
Darvish requires $$$ ONLY. Jurrjens is gonna require good, young, cheap, Talent. NO COMPARISON.
Theo is not going to go quiet this winter after the collapse.
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Ummmm…..
Is Mason Williams reaching the hype that Austin Jackson once had yet?
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
The White Sox need to cut salary THIS year.
And their farm system is terrible. Danks is their best trade chip to bring some young talent in and get back on the right track.
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The 8-10 mil Danks is going to make through arbitration isn’t enough to make a difference in their payroll.
If slashing money is their top priority they have enough guys that they can move for low level prospects in salary dumps who aren’t nearly as important to the team as Danks. Floyd, Thornton, Crain, Ohman…etc.
Theo is not going to go quiet this winter after the collapse. They also have the pieces to make things happen.
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HAHAHAHAHHAHAHA
Where have you been lately?
Would I be willing to move a fast 28 year old OF for a solid #2 pitcher – yes, yes I would.
Francona is not going quietly either. Oh, wait. Did I miss some news?
The White Sox were the 10th most profitable team in baseball in 2010 (according to forbes), they don’t “need” to cut payroll. They “want to” because they were terrible last year. This doesn’t meant hey are going to give guys away for no reason.
The 8-10 mil Danks is going to make through arbitration isn’t enough to make a difference in their payroll.
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Of course it does. He makes more money than all you guys listed and unlike those guys he’s due for big money in 2013. It’s about 10% of their payroll right now. He will be their 2nd highest paid pitcher next season.
Danks makes the most sense out of all those guys to move to fit the White Sox goals. He’s expensive now, will bring back the most young talent, and requires a long term big money commitment after 2012.
This happens every year – it’s not going to change and I don’t know why we expect that it would.
Yankee fans overrate Yankee players and prospects. Just as I’m sure Red Sox fans overrate Red Sox players and prospects and Angel fans do the same thing – it goes around baseball – but the bottom line is this. If you want players of quality you have to be willing to part with players of quality to get them. There is not a single GM in the league other than Brian Cashman who is looking to make the Yankees better without having to give another team something significant in return.
If you want a player like Danks, you have to give Kenny Williams some incentive to make that deal. You can’t just expect him to turn around to his owner and say “yeah, I gave the Yankees Danks for a potentially good minor league pitcher and a couple of spare parts…I know it doesn’t sound like much but remember…THESE ARE YANKEE PROSPECTS.”
Kenny Williams doesn’t just want a few minor leaguers who are years away for Danks. He wants people who can step into the lineup today. A package of Gardner, Betances, and Gary Sanchez is a hard pill for the Yankee fan to swallow – but you know what – that’s also probably a fair deal for Danks.
For one year of a pitcher? Sorry Chip, that’s not a fair deal at all.
Not even close.
Well Theo coukd send Garza and Castro to Boston still I guess.
Donny,
I wouldn’t trade a lot for Jurjjins…….you keep saying that Darvish will only cost $$$…….well what happens if he comes over and isn’t what everyone thinks and then the Yanks have to try and fit that 10-15 million into their 189 million dollar budget…….money matters when there is a restricted amount of it.
If you want a player like Danks, you have to give Kenny Williams some incentive to make that deal. You can’t just expect him to turn around to his owner and say “yeah, I gave the Yankees Danks for a potentially good minor league pitcher and a couple of spare parts…I know it doesn’t sound like much but remember…THESE ARE YANKEE PROSPECTS.”
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But what about Jed Hoyer when he was the Padres GM – he did exactly what you just said with Adrian Gonzales?
But yeah – I would trade Gardner, Betances, and Sanchez for Danks. . . .
Gardner is a 4th outfielder who has reachedh his peak. If he could get you a Danks, Gio, Garza, etc. (along with others like Romine, Phelps, etc., of course), you have to listen.
Plug in Jones or someone as the everyday OF or find some guy like Juan Pierre to play everyday. Not hard to replace Gardner. Sell high.
4time – No. Just… no.
“A package of Gardner, Betances, and Gary Sanchez is a hard pill for the Yankee fan to swallow – but you know what – that’s also probably a fair deal for Danks.”
Not for a rental unless the pitcher is a clear #1 and Danks isn’t……he’s a 2 or a very good 3. Find the comp for a deal like that…a pitcher comparable to Danks who brought a return like that for one year of service.
How is it that we are getting worse at the armchair GM game around here…
No to Danks. Not for Banuelos, Betances, Montero and Romine. The only who’ve cracked the major league team that I’d make available for him are Cervelli, Dickerson, Pena, and Laird. Any other minor league pitcher not named above could be considered.
Who needs a Jurrjens? We have 2 of his type, and their names are Hughes and Chamberlain. He’s not a significant enough upgrade than whats under team control already.
A package of Gardner, Betances, and Gary Sanchez is a hard pill for the Yankee fan to swallow – but you know what – that’s also probably a fair deal for Danks.
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Maybe if it was more than a one year rental and you replace Sahcnez with Romine.
A package of Gardner, Betances, and Gary Sanchez is a hard pill for the Yankee fan to swallow – but you know what – that’s also probably a fair deal for Danks.
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What? No.
Better pitchers with more years of control don’t even fetch that much. That’s like a one year Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee package, not JOHN DANKS.
blake December 5th, 2011 at 3:46 pm
“A package of Gardner, Betances, and Gary Sanchez is a hard pill for the Yankee fan to swallow – but you know what – that’s also probably a fair deal for Danks.”
Not for a rental unless the pitcher is a clear #1 and Danks isn’t……he’s a 2 or a very good 3. Find the comp for a deal like that…a pitcher comparable to Danks who brought a return like that for one year of service.
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It’s impossible to make comparitive statements on a fanboard like this when prospects are involved because no matter what comparison is made there will be a majority who will cry out “what? our guys are way better than those guys!”
Do a deal Cashman – do it for Danks!!!! (but no Banuelos or Montero)
Rotation by the end of 2012:
C.C., Danks, Nova, A.J., Banuelos. . . .
Who has more trade value, Eduardo Nunez or Jed Lowrie?
Blake -
It’s the same logic (or lack there of) that is employed when people think that there are teams lining up around the block to take back a 35 year old pitcher with serious control and consistancy issues if the Yankees are willing to eat some of his contract.
it’s the first day of the meetings and GM’s are asking for the moon….in a week or two reality will set in and prices will come down.
There is no way the Yanks should entertain any of the current offers that are out there and for the guys we are talking about- Jjurjens, Gio and Danks – guys like Montero, Banuelos,Sanchezs Bettances and Gardner should be on the off limits list. period.
The Romines, Warrens, Phelps, Josephs,and that ilk can be had….
spidanyc December 5th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Who has more trade value, Eduardo Nunez or Jed Lowrie?
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Value: Lowrie
Upside: Nunez
Lowrie can play at this level and is a solid defender. Nunez has shown flashes of what he can do with the bat, but if that defense doesn’t improve he’s going to need a new position. I suppose it boils down to what you need. If you’re a team that is looking to contend and needs a short stop right now I would rather take Lowrie, if you’re a team that has a window of a few years I would go with Nunez in hopes that he does improve defensively and becomes something special. In either case I don’t think you’re looking at the centerpiece of a trade.
It’s impossible to make comparitive statements on a fanboard like this when prospects are involved because no matter what comparison is made there will be a majority who will cry out “what? our guys are way better than those guys!”
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Just go by the BA rankings then.
A package of Gardner, Betances, and Gary Sanchez is a hard pill for the Yankee fan to swallow – but you know what – that’s also probably a fair deal for Danks.
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you’re completely out of your gourd if you think that. The Yanks had a deal agreed upon for Cliff Lee that was cheaper prospect price-wise than that and Lee and Danks ain’t in the same hemisphere.
champ809 December 5th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
it’s the first day of the meetings and GM’s are asking for the moon….in a week or two reality will set in and prices will come down.
There is no way the Yanks should entertain any of the current offers that are out there and for the guys we are talking about- Jjurjens, Gio and Danks – guys like Montero, Banuelos,Sanchezs Bettances and Gardner should be on the off limits list. period.
The Romines, Warrens, Phelps, Josephs,and that ilk can be had….
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You are not getting a solid number 2 pitcher for a pupu platter of Phelps, Romine and Corban Joseph.
RiverAveBlues RT: @FrankiePiliere: Hearing a lot about Yoenis Cespedes today. Many sources are pointing toward the Yankees as clear front runners for him
I think Nuney has more value right now which is why teams are hot for him and his name continues to come up more frequently.
I think most in the league believe could be a starting SS with the potential to be an impact type player with his skillset whereas Lowrie is more of a utility type guy who could be a servicible as an everyday player
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
It’s impossible to make comparitive statements on a fanboard like this when prospects are involved because no matter what comparison is made there will be a majority who will cry out “what? our guys are way better than those guys!”
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Just go by the BA rankings then.
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At which point there will be the crying fit “Outlet X is biased…”
But, if you want a comparision – look at what the Yankees sent to the Braves for Javy Vazquez. A high ceiling prospect, a solid ML regular and a minor league guy who could contribute right away. That was for an older/more expensive player.
I agree that giving up Gardner, Betances and Sanchez would be a lot for Danks – and so – as I earlier said – I would try to get them to move off Betances and go for Warren or Phelps if the Yankees were willing to help them with some more salary relief by taking back another contract. I threw Thornton out there, but it could be him, Rios, Crain…doesn’t really matter.
What the heck are people thinking?
Have people just stopped watching the players they want to trade for?
Gio Gonzalez? There’s a reason why Beane seems to eager to get rid of him.
And Danks?
Go back and look at what one year of Cliff Lee cost.
And start working way, way backwards from there.
This happens every year. GM’s are far from the stage where they are even being quasi-serious.
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
It’s impossible to make comparitive statements on a fanboard like this when prospects are involved because no matter what comparison is made there will be a majority who will cry out “what? our guys are way better than those guys!”
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Just go by the BA rankings then.
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The same company located in Georgia – who consistently ranked generational Andy Marte and Jordan Schafer as the primetime-primetime from the Braves organization – and dubbed Bruce Chen in the late 90s as greatness defined.
Yet – BA does not recognize to this day that of the Braves 90s rotation – only Glavine was originally produced – (Steve Avery flamed out and Kevin Millwood was beaten by the Yanks)
Vazquez was coming off a Cy Young quality season.
John Danks had a 97 ERA+ last season!
That just illustrates the point even more Gardner, Betances, Sanchez is a crazy overpay because Vazquez had more value on the trade market and got traded for a worse package.
Betances >> Vizcaino
Sanchez >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mike Dunn
Stoneburner December 5th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
It’s impossible to make comparitive statements on a fanboard like this when prospects are involved because no matter what comparison is made there will be a majority who will cry out “what? our guys are way better than those guys!”
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Just go by the BA rankings then.
**********
The same company located in Georgia – who consistently ranked generational Andy Marte and Jordan Schafer as the primetime-primetime from the Braves organization – and dubbed Bruce Chen in the late 90s as greatness defined.
Yet – BA does not recognize to this day that of the Braves 90s rotation – only Glavine was originally produced – (Steve Avery flamed out and Kevin Millwood was beaten by the Yanks)
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LGY -
See.
Stoneburner
I was just saying use BA for the sake of discussion.
Chip
The guys we are talking about are more #3 starter types in the AL East and in the case of Danks are 1yr guys….not worthy of elite prospects in a trade.
Romine,Joseph and Phelps or Warren btw is not a pupu platter if properly evaluated for there ability.
You however are not knowledgeable enough on the Yanks farm system to realize that and as a result view ALL prospects as fungible assets.
CB December 5th, 2011 at 4:07 pm
What the heck are people thinking?
Have people just stopped watching the players they want to trade for?
Gio Gonzalez? There’s a reason why Beane seems to eager to get rid of him.
*******
That is right – Beane never gets rid of quality pitchers early to begin the new reubuilding process and maximize talen (knock knock) – oh Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder (who got them Dan Haren) – I did not mean – please don’t. . . . .
As an aside – ironically – the one time Beane does hold onto the pitcher going into FA – it’s Barry Zito – go figure. . . .
Despite the proximity, I rarely follow the A’s too closely. More fun to follow the Giants as a Bay Area team.
So my sketchy impression of Gio is, he always seems to have decent numbers when I see his stats right before the Yanks face the A’s. Then the Yanks beat him up. Then he seems to go into a little slump, perhaps scarred by the NYY experience. Then I stop thinking about him.
Conclusion? You’ve learned virtually nothing about Gio by reading this post. Sucker!
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
Vazquez was coming off a Cy Young quality season.
John Danks had a 97 ERA+ last season!
That just illustrates the point even more Gardner, Betances, Sanchez is a crazy overpay because Vazquez had more value on the trade market and got traded for a worse package.
Betances >> Vizcaino
Sanchez >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Mike Dunn
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See I would argue that Javy had less value on the market due to his age, previous failures and contract.
But again – it’s a subjective thing – end of the day none of us here are the ones making the decision.
New Post: Hanley moving only a few feet, not moving teams
LGY December 5th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
Stoneburner
I was just saying use BA for the sake of discussion.
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I just surrender to that I am never going to know which prospects will pan out and which ones will not – I do not worry about the Yanks trading away a generational prospect b/c I live through that in the 80s and survived – as hard as it was – it is part of the game/cycle. The Reds trade away Frank Robinson – and a decade later they win back to backs with Bench, Morgan and company. It happens – that is why I do not become too attached. . . .
CB
I’ve been trying to make that very point on here for the past month.
And please the BA rankings? Teams don’t spend millions of dollars on scouts and player development departments to then turn to the BA america rankings when structuring a trade.
You think the Angels would trade Mike Trout + + for 1yr of Danks?
Would the Reds trade Chapman+Meserosco+Stubbs for Danks or Jjurjens?
C’mon get a clue!
champ809 December 5th, 2011 at 4:10 pm
Chip
The guys we are talking about are more #3 starter types in the AL East and in the case of Danks are 1yr guys….not worthy of elite prospects in a trade.
Romine,Joseph and Phelps or Warren btw is not a pupu platter if properly evaluated for there ability.
You however are not knowledgeable enough on the Yanks farm system to realize that and as a result view ALL prospects as fungible assets.
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So because I don’t think every Yankee prospect is the second coming my opinion on them is moot?
Sanchez is a tremendous prospect, but his value to the Yankee organization right now is higher as trade bait than it is as a player – the reasons being twofold:
1. He’s far enough away that you can’t count on him even making the bigs.
2. The Yankees are deep at catcher organizationally.
Corban Joseph is coming off a very impressive season, it would take decades to list all the minor league players who have had an impressive season and then amounted to nothing. Romine is a gap hitter with questionable receiving skills, and Phelps is a nice pitcher – but he’s not headlining any deals.