Another big name off the market: Cuddyer lands in Colorado
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 16, 2011 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
With Josh Willingham in Minnesota, Michael Cuddyer has moved on to Colorado.
The Rockies have signed Cuddyer to a three-year, $31.5-million contract. That’s one year after the 32-year-old hit .284/.346/.459 in his eighth season as a Twins regular.
Although it’s not a perfect comparison, the Cuddyer deal — much like the Willingham deal — could help set the expectations for Nick Swisher a year from now.
Next winter, Swisher will turn 32 (same as Cuddyer is today). Swisher is a career .254/.360/.466 hitter, Cuddyer is a career .284/.346./459. They’re not perfect comparisons, but they’re at similar levels, with the same sort of power from a power-oriented position. Swisher’s a more patient hitter, Cuddyer a more versatile fielder.
For the time being, three-year deals for Cuddyer and Willingham — Willingham got $21 million — give some idea of what it would have cost to replace Swisher this winter had the Yankees not picked up his option.
Sign Melky Cabrera for RF 2013
I would characterize the difference between Swisher and Cuddyer a bit differently. I would say that Swisher is more likely to work a walk, while Cuddyer is more likely to actually hit the ball. With runners on second and third and two outs, I’d rather have the latter at bat than the former, because the hit will score runs, while the second will not score anybody.
Bryan Hoch thinks a sign and trade involving Nakajima and the Giants might be in the works.
http://bombersbeat.mlblogs.com.....-nakajima/
Sign Melky Cabrera for RF 2013
—————————————
The guy who basically put up the same stats as he did with us in 2009 just with more at bats?
Regression is going to hit him hard this year
EDIT:
Ghostwriter December 16th, 2011 at 12:18 pm
I would characterize the difference between Swisher and Cuddyer a bit differently. I would say that Swisher is more likely to work a walk, while Cuddyer is more likely to actually hit the ball. With runners on second and third and two outs, I’d rather have the latter at bat than the former, because the hit will score runs, while the walk will not score anybody.
This just limits Beltran’s market further.. go get ‘em!
Triple Short of a Cycle December 16th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Sign Melky Cabrera for RF 2013
—————————————
The guy who basically put up the same stats as he did with us in 2009 just with more at bats?
Regression is going to hit him hard this year
==========
If he doesn’t regress in 2012, he definitely be worth taking a look at him next year.
Yankees need keeping looking to get younger, faster, and more athletic, and to upgrade whenever and wherever possible.
Sign filet of Soler.
We need more good OF prospects in the pipeline.
Shame Spencer December 16th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
This just limits Beltran’s market further.. go get ‘em!
—–
It would be awesome if they could do a short-term deal with him. However, I’m not holding my breath. I don’t Cashman is inclined even to kick the tires on this one.
GB-
What do the Giants have that would fill a need ?
Do they have a good LOOGY, or a Utility or bench guy that would help ?
While I’m sure Cano would be all for having his BFF back on the team, I think the Melky ship has sailed
GB – You’re right about Wright, I got him confused with Brown… who I believed was acquired to ‘replace’ Andy.
- HITMAN -
I like Melky, but my preference would be Alex Gordon of KC. He will outgrow the KC budget and nickel-and-dime Glass will be looking to move him. I would strike now, before the guy breaks-out with Huge numbers.The Yanks have plenty of cheap, young pieces that should appeal to KC. I would try to keep from including Gardner in the deal, but would do it if it was a must. Gordon is that good.
Ghost – Cash apparently kicks the tires on everything. Here’s what we know about Beltran: He can hit RHP, he can play defense better than Andruw Jones, he has played in NY, he has wanted to play for the Yankees, he has a very limited market….
2009-2011
Swisher’s fWAR = 11.1
Cuddyer’s fWAR = 6.9
Shame-
He will also cost way more too.
Is he worth that kind of difference ?
For the short term I don’t see why not.. we have OF prospects but none of them are near ready. I don’t advocate replacing Swisher with Beltran.. I want Beltran, Grandy, Swish, and Gardner for the outfield. I don’t buy the argument that there isn’t enough playing time for all of them.
No way Hal is gonna pony-up the $$$ for Beltran over the cheaper Jones. Besides, nobody is gonna pay that kinda change for a 4th OF’er. Now, if your talkin’ about dealin’ Swish, I trade for Alex Gordon and put him in RF where he has been before.
Also MTU, I’m just not sure he would cost that much. Again, where is his market right now?
Shame-
I agree with Donnybrook.
In this cost-conscious environment I do not see the Yankees going there for a 4th OF’er.
Melky Cabrera is a Yankee. Don’t fight it.
No way Hal is gonna pony-up the $$$ for Beltran over the cheaper Jones.
========================
No way he should.
Shame-
What is your figure and for how many years ?
MTU December 16th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
Shame-
He will also cost way more too.
Is he worth that kind of difference ?
=======
Yes, because he will drive in a ton of runs in the 6-hole for the Yanks.
Cashman: “Ok, Carlos, I’m prepared to offer you 13 for next season.”
Beltran: “Wow! 13 million? I’ll take it.”
Cashman: “Sorry, no, I meant 13 dollars.”
With Montero clogging the DH Hole, just where is Beltran gonna play? No way you pay that kinda $$$ for a part-time player.
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
No way Hal is gonna pony-up the $$$ for Beltran over the cheaper Jones.
========================
No way he should.
=================
Why not? Sign Beltran, and trade Swisher. The money will more or less even out, and the offense would become a lot more consistent in its ability to produce runs (as opposed to baserunners).
DONNYBROOK December 16th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
With Montero clogging the DH Hole, just where is Beltran gonna play? No way you pay that kinda $$$ for a part-time player.
=========
I would put him in right field.
Ghost-
Wouldn’t Beltran be the 4th OF’er ?
If so, how does he get enough AB’s to drive in a ton of runs ?
Are you turning GGBG into the 4th OF’er ?
Shame just wants to keep Jones off the team
Ghost-
They are not trading Swisher IMO.
hardwired7 December 16th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Cashman: “Ok, Carlos, I’m prepared to offer you 13 for next season.”
Beltran: “Wow! 13 million? I’ll take it.”
Cashman: “Sorry, no, I meant 13 dollars.”
=========
LOL! Unfortunately, I think that this is precisely how it would go… When I develop an ulcer next year, I’ll name it Nick
MTU December 16th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
GB-
What do the Giants have that would fill a need ?
Do they have a good LOOGY, or a Utility or bench guy that would help ?
————————————————————————————————————————-
Nothing at the major league level, but, maybe a good pitching prospect in AA or AAA, maybe. Haven’t really looked at their farm team. I doubt Cabrera because they’re in need of outfield help.
Gardner’s been our 4th outfielder for years now.. I think those guys can be kinda valuable. I can understand the argument for sticking with Jones instead since he’d be cheaper but I really hate him.
I just think Beltran could really mash in Yankee Stadium and I’d be less worried about his defense in RF or LF than I am about Andruw.
I would sign Beltran to be primary DH, stash Montero in AAA where he can catch and inflate his numbers. Look to acquire Felix Hernandez at the trade deadline. By then Seattle should be thoroughly buried by LAA and Texas. Felix earns 18.5 million in 2012 and the Mariners are going to start to feel that. Despite his pitching, the attendance remains stagnant while the cost of Felix increases.
With Beltran the DH you don’t need to spend money on a 4th OF. Dickerson would be just fine as a pinch runner and Beltran could patrol LF or RF to give the OF a rest when the DH is resting Arod, Jeter and Tex.
MTU December 16th, 2011 at 12:40 pm
Ghost-
They are not trading Swisher IMO.
====
Oh, I know that. I was just saying what I would like to see happen. If I was making a prediction, I would say that the status quo is the most likely outcome. Apparently Cashman is a lot more satisfied with Swisher than I am (much to my chagrin).
GB-
I do not know their farm system.
It would have to be someone fairly good though.
And close to ML ready.
Ghost-
Gotcha.
Montero is hardly to be considered a “clog”. Perhaps you erred and meant to type “cog”.
Cashman knows the Mariners like Montero + Nunez + Nova. Those 3 names came up in the Cliff Lee talks.
What other team has laid the groundwork for King Felix to this extent?
3 key pieces are in place.
MTU – I’d be comfortable with 2 years at $12 million. If they could get him for one year that would really be ideal, I’d even give him more if that were the case. The most I would go would be maybe $14 mil at 2 years with the thinking that Swish won’t be around next season.
shame-
thanks. I do not think that gets it for him.
More $$$ and maybe more years.
We’ll see.
Carlos Beltran? Beltran is certainly no David Dejesus.
Gotta run.
Catch you all later.
Erin – I hate the way he spells his stupid, stupid name..
Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
Cashman knows the Mariners like Montero + Nunez + Nova. Those 3 names came up in the Cliff Lee talks.
What other team has laid the groundwork for King Felix to this extent?
3 key pieces are in place.
===============
Hernandez is not that much of an upgrade over Nova to warrant that kind of a deal, gving away our most prized prosepect away for him. In fact, Nova had a better year than Hernandez in 2011. And Nova’s ERA+ is higher than Hernandez’s ERA+ for his first two seasons.
Shame Spencer December 16th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Erin ? I hate the way he spells his stupid, stupid name..
**********************
Hernandez is not that much of an upgrade over Nova to warrant that kind of a deal,
=============================
He is a massive upgrade over Nova.
Swish being able to play first could get Tex out of the lineup vs. RHP and we’d have Beltran to cover RF.
Shame,
Would you like Jones to change his name to “Andrew Fabacher”. Instead of being nicknamed “Old Hickory”, they could call him “Old Magnolia”.
And before I get yelled at I don’t mean Tex never plays against RHP.. I’m just sayin its an option and a way to get all the OFers playing regularly.
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Hernandez is not that much of an upgrade over Nova to warrant that kind of a deal,
=============================
He is a massive upgrade over Nova.
=======================
How so? How many more games will he win for us that he is worth giving up the games that Montero could win for us with his bat?
How so? How many more games will he win for us in addition to what Nova might have won for us that he is worth giving up the games that Montero could win for us with his bat?
Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Deal With It,
Sign Beltran to be the primary DH and roaming corner OF
Sign Keppinger for the bench
Attempt to trade Montero + Nunez for a top rotation starter. If there is no match to be found, sign Kuroda, wait one year for Hamels, Cain, Greinke or E. Santana. Try again at the trade deadline.
And don’t say you’re not optimistic. Get optimistic.
=================
Always optimistic ! I like the plan, no Montero though. Trade Swisher now and a mid level prospect or two and see what you can get. If not sign the best FA SP out there you can find for a year, maybe two tops. Don’t forget to take a good shot and one of either Soler or Cespedes and groom them with a year or two in the mL’s.
Ghostwriter December 16th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Hernandez is not that much of an upgrade over Nova to warrant that kind of a deal,
=============================
He is a massive upgrade over Nova.
=======================
How so? How many more games will he win for us that he is worth giving up the games that Montero could win for us with his bat?
————————————————————————————————————————-
Winning has nothing to do with it, man. It’s the name and the idea of any trade that means everything.
LOL, actually GB I’m pretty sure the way Andruw spells his name is tied to his culture/ethnicity. I remember reading about it and being asked to change my stance on my hatred towards him because of it but I …just…can’t…
One of Trenton’s coaches the last couple of years, Justin Pope is taking over pitching coach’s spot at Staten Island.
CC Sabathia + Felix Hernandez would be the best 1-2 punch at the top of a rotation since the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Yankees would be dealing catching depth (Montero) for a chance to acquire a hard-to-fill need that would help them dominate in the playoffs.
Adding Beltran to the lineup and King Felix to the pitching staff makes this Yankees team really hard to beat.
Where is the weakness?
If Andy Pettitte called up Cashman today and said he wants to make a comeback, what would you do with the rotation?
LGY – The same thing I suggested last night with Kuroda. Send the ST loser of Hughes/Nova down to AAA and get them ready to be the first call-up for injury.
If the Yankees can get Swish to sign the contract Cuddyer is about to take, they should definitely do it.
LGY December 16th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
If Andy Pettitte called up Cashman today and said he wants to make a comeback, what would you do with the rotation?
================
Make room for Andy! I’m not sure how I would do it, but I would find a way. We haven’t won a World Series without the guy….
“LGY December 16th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
If Andy Pettitte called up Cashman today and said he wants to make a comeback, what would you do with the rotation?”
_________________________________________
i’d offer andy a ST invitation and keep searching…
GreenBeret7 December 16th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
Ghostwriter December 16th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
Hernandez is not that much of an upgrade over Nova to warrant that kind of a deal,
=============================
He is a massive upgrade over Nova.
=======================
How so? How many more games will he win for us that he is worth giving up the games that Montero could win for us with his bat?
————————————————————————————————————————-
Winning has nothing to do with it, man. It’s the name and the idea of any trade that means everything.
================================
I think that you may be onto something!
How so? How many more games will he win for us that he is worth giving up the games that Montero could win for us with his bat?
=========================
Not really advocating a trade. Merely pointing out that Hernandez is a vastly superior pitcher. I’m perfectly fine with holding on to Nova and Montero.
Andy was sooooo good his last year in pinstripes. He had really blossomed into an ace pitcher–kind of like what I imagine Whitey Ford must have been.
We really caught lightning in a bottle last year that Freddy essentially gave us in 2011 what
Andy gave us in 2010. Freddy is another guy that I think blossomed into a true pitcher late in his career…
Swisher is a patient hitter……..until the playoffs…….
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
How so? How many more games will he win for us that he is worth giving up the games that Montero could win for us with his bat?
=========================
Not really advocating a trade. Merely pointing out that Hernandez is a vastly superior pitcher. I’m perfectly fine with holding on to Nova and Montero.
============
Fair enough. I agree that Hernandez is a better pitcher than Nova.
wow, its really starting to look bad for the wilpon’s ownership of the mets, they seem to be going under. Selig owes them his commisionership to a great degree, but mlb really has to start thinking about forcing a sale pretty soon and it may have to consider whether to allow this ‘mini ownership’ plan they are trying to put together would complicate a sale of the franchise or whether it would be better to have wilpon/sterling just sell the whole enchilada straight-up. I dont think the wilpons would go all mc court on them, if the commishioner and other key owners demanded a sale, they would likely sell out (they now owe $65M in loans backed by mlb on top of all their other obligations) and they would have no problem finding big-money bidders. It’s really a shame because the main cause is their attempt to pretty much pay for the new ballpark themselves instead of seeking municipally backed financing, but it looks like the combination of the team losing on the field causing losses plus balloon payments on the stadium debt are becoming too much for them to deal with. the madoff clawback isnt really a factor here (yet) other than they aren’t seeing those huge profits they were seeing before from their assets invested in madoff’s ponzi scheme.
“If Andy Pettitte called up Cashman today and said he wants to make a comeback, what would you do with the rotation?”
Do something with Hughes and slot Andy into the rotation.
If Nova pitches as well as Wang did while he was here, NYYs will have a damned fine pitcher for a lot of years at little cost. Lots of similarities. He, Montero and Nunez will win a lot more games as a group than Hernandez will.
Ys Guy December 16th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
wow, its really starting to look bad for the wilpon’s ownership of the mets, they seem to be going under. Selig owes them his commisionership to a great degree, but mlb really has to start thinking about forcing a sale pretty soon…
—————–
There is a ton of value in that franchise. I really don’t see why a sale couldn’t be arranged. After all, as I understand it, the Mets aren’t floundering as a business; it’s the owner’s financial woes that are impoverishing the team. I wonder why Wilpon doesn’t seem to want to sell the team to raise funds…
I still do NOT understand the Mets just letting Reyes walk. They shoulda dealt that guy. Also, with the tent coming down over there, the Yanks outta snatch Murphy. $$$ and a player to be named might do it. That $2.5 Mill that Hal bid on Nakawhatever woulda come in handy right now.
“It’s really a shame because the main cause is their attempt to pretty much pay for the new ballpark themselves instead of seeking municipally backed financing, but it looks like the combination of the team losing on the field causing losses plus balloon payments on the stadium debt are becoming too much for them to deal with. the madoff clawback isnt really a factor here (yet) other than they aren’t seeing those huge profits they were seeing before from their assets invested in madoff’s ponzi scheme.”
I think you’re a little off, YS.. it isnt that they aren’t see the huge profits… the profits are gone, we know that.. but so is all of the money they invested. That whole ‘investing team revenue in the market’ thing was kind of a big mistake on the part of ownership.
Ghost:
I’d put this way. Were Cashman to trade Nova, Montero and Nunez/Nakajima to Seattle for Hernandez, I would have absolutely zero problem with it. Hernandez is Sabathia to me. He’s that good. If you have two of those and the considerable offensive prowess of the existing team (even minus Montero), they are probably a little bit better team, especially in the postseason.
At the same time, if, as expected, he makes no such trade, I think this is going to be a very dangerous team in 2012.
Swisher is not getting traded for an injury-prone Beltran who is 4 years older, and based on similar contracts, would require a 3 year deal. Who needs a 38 year old RF? I’ll pass.
Keep Swisher. Sign Soler, put him in AAA for a season of seasoning.
GreenBeret7 December 16th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
If Nova pitches as well as Wang did while he was here, NYYs will have a damned fine pitcher for a lot of years at little cost. Lots of similarities. He, Montero and Nunez will win a lot more games as a group than Hernandez will.
==================
I absolutely agree. Good point about Wang; I hadn’t made that connection before. Wang is another pitcher that was quite successful despite having lackluster K-rates. (However, I expect that Nova will improve in this regard.)
“After all, as I understand it, the Mets aren’t floundering as a business; it’s the owner’s financial woes that are impoverishing the team.”
Thats a good point .. but the guys that have financial woes have them because they don’t know how to run a business. Or they’re sketchy and got what they deserved. Either way, its just not good.
i think we all love andy pettitte, but let’s hope that the yankees wouldn’t just ‘pencil in’ a guy who’s going to turn 40 and has been out for a full season. until he shows up and shows he can still throw you cant assume he can hold down a rotation spot, and even if he comes back throwing well, you can’t assume he can hold up through the season. It would be alot like how things went with colon last season, great to have but you take it game to game and hope he can keep doing it.
Further, I think Jack Z signs Prince to be the hitting cornerstone to complement King Felix as the pitching cornerstone. There will be no King Felix for Montero/Nunez/whomever trade.
Ghostwriter – The difference is that Wang is sinker-ground-ball type pitcher, Nova just has no control.
George Vecsey of the Times is retiring. Seems to be a bit of a shock. A good reporter and he retires while the slugs stay on.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12.....ref=sports
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Ghost:
I’d put this way. Were Cashman to trade Nova, Montero and Nunez/Nakajima to Seattle for Hernandez, I would have absolutely zero problem with it. Hernandez is Sabathia to me. He’s that good. If you have two of those and the considerable offensive prowess of the existing team (even minus Montero), they are probably a little bit better team, especially in the postseason.
==================
Hernandez is a great pitcher. However, that deal would be a net loser for the Yankees. Look at it this way: Suppose that Hernandez can win 21 games for the Yanks, and Nova can only win 14. Do you not think that Montero could win at least seven games for us with his bat? What about Nunez contributions?
I think that GB hit the nail on the head. If Nova can be what Wang was for us, then Hernandez wouldn’t be that much of an upgrade anyway….
CC better show up to ST in better shape than he was in Oct. If he and Hughes have done little over the offseason, and are still wearing the same size manzeer, the Yanks are in trouble.
Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Ghostwriter – The difference is that Wang is sinker-ground-ball type pitcher, Nova just has no control.
===============
That’s a bit of an exaggeration. Nova walks 3.2 hitters per 9 innings. This is not a bad walk rate. Wang’s was 2.6, which is significantly better, but within Nova’s reach if he improves…
In fact, Nova’s walk rate fell to 3.1 in 2011.
GB….Vecsey will be missed
DONNYBROOK December 16th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
CC better show up to ST in better shape than he was in Oct. If he and Hughes have done little over the offseason, and are still wearing the same size manzeer, the Yanks are in trouble.
^^^^^^^^
CC, in shape or not, should win around 20 games.
Hughes, if he bounces back, needs to win around 15. Same with AJ.
I’d be happy with Nova winning at least 14, and same with Garcia and/or Noesi.
While there are a lot of IFs there, I don’t think we’re in bad shape with the 6 candidates listed. Adding Colon as a bullpen/spot starter adds additional insurance. I’d take my chances.
shame, yes their market financing scheme was fishy. i guess you could say that the problems wilpon/sterling are facing pretty much all come back to the overall econmic downturn. Without that, madoff (or someone else) could still be churning out profits for them plus their real estate holdings and development buisness would also be kicking in more money into the pot. In any case, it looks like they arent gonna make it.
when the einhorn loan (which was really einhorn taking a short position in the hope of gaining full control) fell apart, it was assumed by many that some rulings that went against the madoff trustee had brightened the wilpon’s financial outlook enough that they no longer needed his money, but now it looks as if they came to realize that they were likely going to lose the team to him. Now they are hoping to find a bunch of rich stooges who will throw in $20M to walk around like big muck-a-mucks in the stadium while having no say in the operations, but the $40M loan the mets got from mlb show that that plan isnt going too well.
And the thing that I love most about Nova is his competitiveness. It doesn’t matter how good or bad he is going, he will fight you tooth and nail for every single run. He reminds me a lot of a young Andy Pettitte in this regard….
Hernandez is a great pitcher. However, that deal would be a net loser for the Yankees. Look at it this way: Suppose that Hernandez can win 21 games for the Yanks, and Nova can only win 14. Do you not think that Montero could win at least seven games for us with his bat? What about Nunez contributions?
——-
How many wins a pitcher has does not represent his contribution to the team’s win total.
And as much as I love Montero. 6 or 7 win player? No friggin way.
I don’t think anyone has to worry about Hughes conditioning this coming season.
He is going to API this OS and will be in BSOHL.
You can count on it IMO.
Pat M. December 16th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
GB….Vecsey will be missed
————————————————————————————————————————-
Pat, I didn’t read him or the Times every day, but, he seldom disappointed. Reminds me a bit of Joe Falls of the Detroit Free Press or Furman Bisher of the Atlanta Constitution.
LMAO @ MTU.
Ghostwriter – That’s really not what I meant by “no control”. When you watch him pitch he rarely (if ever) hits the catchers glove. He can pepper the strikezone well enough to keep his walks low, but he won’t increase his strikeouts until he starts hitting his spots.
Wang was not trying to increase his strikeouts, he was trying to get ground balls. Different scenario.
More than once I’ve seen Nova referred to as “effectively wild”.
Saint-
Why’s that ?
I believe where a guy like Felix Hernandez would come into play is in the post-season moreso than the regular season. That said no way I trade Montero.
You guys are going overboard on Nova, Hughes, and especially Noesi. Just how often does someone hit the trifecta? Nova flat-out broke down, Hughes showed how dedicated he was when he showed up to ST looking like the Before picture in one of those fatty adds, and Noesi issa TBD.
MTU December 16th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
Saint-
Why’s that ?
^^^^^^^^^^^^
all the abbreviations.: API, OS, BSOHL, IMO
LGY December 16th, 2011 at 1:53 pm
Hernandez is a great pitcher. However, that deal would be a net loser for the Yankees. Look at it this way: Suppose that Hernandez can win 21 games for the Yanks, and Nova can only win 14. Do you not think that Montero could win at least seven games for us with his bat? What about Nunez contributions?
——-
How many wins a pitcher has does not represent his contribution to the team’s win total.
And as much as I love Montero. 6 or 7 win player? No friggin way.
=============
I wasn’t speaking in terms of WaR. But yes, if Montero gets 600 ABs in a season, I would not be the least bit surprised to see him score close to 100 runs, and drive in close to 100 runs.
Do you really think that Hernandez is that much of an incremental upgrade over Nova at the margin to warrant including Montero AND Nunez in a trade for him? Do you really think that Montero can be that easily replaced?
Saint-
Oh !
Thought maybe you disagreed.
Did I travel back in time or land on an archived post?
Beltran won’t be a Yankee, Felix won’t be a Yankee, and Swisher and Montero are staying put in 2012.
If Darvish is a Jay and Hanley is a Red Sox, the AL East will be one helluva fight.
Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Ghostwriter – That’s really not what I meant by “no control”. When you watch him pitch he rarely (if ever) hits the catchers glove. He can pepper the strikezone well enough to keep his walks low, but he won’t increase his strikeouts until he starts hitting his spots.
Wang was not trying to increase his strikeouts, he was trying to get ground balls. Different scenario.
Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
More than once I’ve seen Nova referred to as “effectively wild”.
======
Okay– I see your point. Using this kind of a notion of wildness, I’m still not certain that I recall Wang as being that much better than Nova, but my recollection could be mistaken…
I would trade Nunez for a baseball.
Not a bag of balls, or a bucket of balls as you may have heard.
A single baseball.
DONNYBROOK December 16th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
You guys are going overboard on Nova, Hughes, and especially Noesi. Just how often does someone hit the trifecta? Nova flat-out broke down, Hughes showed how dedicated he was when he showed up to ST looking like the Before picture in one of those fatty adds, and Noesi issa TBD.
=========
Nova flat out broke down? How so?
Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
I would trade Nunez for a baseball.
Not a bag of balls, or a bucket of balls as you may have heard.
A single baseball.
==============
I’m pretty sure that we could do better than that.
How did Nova “flat break down? Hughes was not obese. He gained 10-12 pounds at most, but, that wasn’t the issue with the arm/shoulder as much as it was with the 90-100 inning increase.
They should rename this blog, “The Yankee Alternate Universe”….
Ghostwriter – Wang had really good control, you can see that by his lack of walks and relative success with low K totals. What you wouldn’t see with him is the catcher calling for say… an inside strike, and the pitch hits the plate high and outside. He would just beat the lower half of the plate into submission with sinkers until the batter rolled over one.
Nova is still just trying to hit the strikezone, period.
If he starts locating his fastballs better it makes his breaking stuff infinitely more effective. That would increase his K totals on pitches just outside of the strikezone. At the moment there is no reason for a batter to swing at that close pitch because Nova is not painting corners.
Beltran for 2 years (not 3) if possible, put him in LF, keep Swisher this year. Gardner fills in at LF, CF, RF when they need rests, also defensive replacement, pinch runner, and OF when Swisher plays for resting Tex at 1B, and injury backup. That gives you the option of letting Swish go next year and Beltran moves to RF for his 2nd year. Sounds like a good plan to me, if they aren’t going to upgrade the rotation, upgrade the offense.
ghostwriter – Obviously they could get more… but in order to get him and his horrendous glove off the roster I would be willing to accept anything valued at one baseball or greater.
Do you really think that Hernandez is that much of an incremental upgrade over Nova at the margin to warrant including Montero AND Nunez in a trade for him? Do you really think that Montero can be that easily replaced?
——-
Where did I say that?
Where are the Red Sox getting all of these stud minor league wunderkinds that they are trading for Ramirez, Danks, Gonzalez and everyone else? They must have stuck up a Prospects-R-Us at gunpoint.
Swisher is significantly better and more consistent than Cuddyer…
jacksquat – I’d be really surprised if they didn’t sign another starter. I don’t see the Yankees going into the season with someone as unproven as Noesi as the “6th starter”. That’s setting yourself up for failure.
Nova broke down? He was 8-0 with a 3.18 ERA after the All-Star break.
The debate over how many regular season wins Hernandez might be worth vs the combo of Nova/Montero/Nunez continue to miss the point. Where the Yankees are concerned, it is all about succeeding in the playoffs…period. Having CC and Felix at the top of the rotation would instantly make the Yankees a superior playoff team and in my opinion, would be worth the high cost. Felix has clearly established himself as one of the elite pitchers in the game and is still just 25. I really like Nova, but anyone outside of Yankeeland wouldn’t even consider comparing the two.
Swisher is significantly better and more consistent than Cuddyer…
——-
Hopefully Swish reads this blog so we can fool him into taking the same contract.
Is Barry Bonds going to the pokie ??? I don’t like the guy but does he really do time ??? I think his arrogance has been tempered some what…….Do a few weekends picking up trash for Cal Trans….
Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
“Ghostwriter – Wang had really good control, you can see that by his lack of walks and relative success with low K totals….”
========
You could say the same about Nova. You’re contradicting yourself a bit here. If Ks per 9-innings and walks per 9-innings aren’t the appropriate metric for this particular discussion (as we’ve agreed), then they aren’t the appropriate metric. You can’t have your cake and eat it too
In the absence of having a a substantive point on which to dispute it, I’ll concede the point that Wang had much sharper control…
CC Sabathia + Felix Hernandez would be the best 1-2 punch at the top of a rotation since the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.
—
Lee and Halladay is as good or better
Nova/Montero/Nunez for King Felix? Jack Z laughs then hangs up, that is a bad deal for Mariners, not even close
Pat,
Bonds is looking at 15 months, but, I’d guess may 4-6 months.
Precedent for Bonds’ crime and other athletes is house arrest for I think about a year.
Moving Montero is senseless. The Yanks have an aging offense and any major help from the system is at least 4 years away. Montero is the first replacement in the line and he replaces Posada.
Pops December 16th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
The debate over how many regular season wins Hernandez might be worth vs the combo of Nova/Montero/Nunez continue to miss the point. Where the Yankees are concerned, it is all about succeeding in the playoffs…period. Having CC and Felix at the top of the rotation would instantly make the Yankees a superior playoff team and in my opinion, would be worth the high cost. Felix has clearly established himself as one of the elite pitchers in the game and is still just 25. I really like Nova, but anyone outside of Yankeeland wouldn’t even consider comparing the two.
==========
I think that you’re the one that’s missing the point. The objective isn’t to construct an AllStar team, the objective is to construct a team that could win the WS. And Hernandez–as good as he is–simply can’t help the Yanks win enough games to warrant giving up a solid number-3 (or maybe a number-2) pitcher and a guy that can do serious damage with a bat. The regular season argument that I promulgated applies in the postseason as well. In a short series, Hernandez would start in at most two games, as would Nova. Montero would likely start all of the games in the series (5 to 7 games)
And the reason that we are comparing Hernandez and Nova is because that is the tradeoff that is being discussed.
Bonds isn’t going in on a local or state rap. This is federal.
ghostwriter – Yes, this would be one of those things that would be hard to just “pull out of the numbers”. Knowing Wang is a sinker/ground ball pitcher and Nova is not is what gives you the clue to what their K and BB rates can be used to determine. Wang’s K rate is not really tied to his walk rate because he’s trying to get outs with pitches inside the zone almost all of the time. Nova’s K rate is tied to his BB rate because he is trying to fool hitters into missing his pitches. It won’t raise until he starts locating his strikes more consistantly. When you see Nova’s O-Swing % (you can see it on fangraphs) start to rise, you’ll know he’s starting to locate his pitches better because batters are now “chasing” his pitches outside the zone.
If greg anderson is going to do almost 2 years for not talking, Bonds will do it for lying and obstruction.
Bonds won’t do a day in the pokey. Probation for awhile. That’s it, IMO.
martha stewart got 5 months for “conspiracy, obstruction of an agency proceeding, and making false statements to federal investigators.”
you would figure bonds isn’t going to get more than that on only one conviction. I’d expect probation. Not much prison time if any.
Just saying in very similar (federal) cases the precedent is house arrest. If he gets time in prison it will be considered harsh for what he actually was convicted of (no matter what anyone thinks he did).
how many ground balls does Nova need to be a “ground ball pitcher”? 20-21?
Looks pretty difficult to lift pitches off of him to me.
http://www.baseball-reference......;year=2011
Yeah, I’m sure you went through that whole game log GB. lol
greg anderson doesnt count, he was not convicted of anything, he was held to be in contempt of court and could have avoided imprisonment had he just testified when subpeonad to.
Nova isn’t as good at generating ground balls as Wang was but he’s definitely what I would consider a “ground ball pitcher”
Nova is 50% GB (which is actually really good considering he doesn’t have a sinker) and 29% FB
Wang is 60% GB and 20% FB.
For comparison sake, CC is 45% GB and 35% FB
So, is Nova somewhere in the middle of the road? Yes.
Is he pounding the lower half of the zone with sinking fastballs trying to get ground ball outs? No. He’s only 60% Fastballs.
Look at Wang’s 2006 for stats that broke every projection system out there. SABR people thought Wang was so bad but we all saw how effective he was, his sinker was just so absurdly good he could be effective while pitching to contact… I wish he had never been injured
- GHOSTY -
First we got a pitching staff to rival the O’s 4 20 game winners, and Now Montero is gonna Score And knock in OVER 100 in 2012. I see Potential in all these players, but you guys are talkin’ like Stengel did when ballyhooing the expansion Mets.
Per Twitter, Bonds = 2 years probation, 250 hrs community service, 30 days house arrest
SABR people thought Wang was so bad
This sounds made up.
patrick – Despite having low striekout rates, Wang still had a 3.91 FIP in 2006… anyone that told you he was bad was an idiot. don’t blame it on SABR.
If greg anderson is going to do almost 2 years for not talking, Bonds will do it for lying and obstruction
———
Amateur attorney?
The only way Bonds sees jail time is if they try to make an example out of him.
It’s extremely unlikely.
i believe i had that…jack and dog, too
This sounds made up.
—
Maybe you don’t remember but a lot of non Yankee fans that were big into stats at the time considered Wang to be really lucky and not a good pitcher at all. Just look at his k/9, it’s pathetic. But to those that watched him pitch knew that his sinker was actually just amazing
It was going to be 2 years probation and 250 hrs with the Mets, but there were Cruel and Unusual Punishment fears.
anderson’s attorney was mark geragos, who also successfully defended michael jackson, and is very prominent in cali. i dont think you could call him an amateur.
…methinks there might have been something else going on but nobody’s turned up any checks with barry’s autograph(yet…)
Woops. I guess we got our answer before I even posted
Right call for him to avoid jail time.
anderson’s attorney was mark geragos, who also successfully defended michael jackson, and is very prominent in cali. i dont think you could call him an amateur.
——-
I was asking if GB is an amateur attorney.
Nucky Thompson has put the fix in on Bonds. He walks, and becomes Chalky White’s Aide-de-camp.
This sounds made up.
–
I’m more talking about PECOTA and other projection systems that would constantly expect him to pitch above a 4 ERA .. when in actuality he was closer to an ace than anything else
patrick – Got me, I would peg that on people misusing stats (which is so rampant it’s no wonder why people hate them) more-so than a consensus view of the SABR world.
As long as a pitcher is not walking the park or giving up home runs… he’s basically a good pitcher. You’d be hard pressed to find many exceptions to that rule.
Strikeouts are good, and are generally touted by the SABR people because they are a more consistent way of getting outs than balls in play… but one-size fits all rules without glaring exceptions are hard to come by.
Wang limits his HR damage on balls in play, and doesn’t get rocked by a high line-drive %… so it’s easy to see how he is an effective pitcher despite the lack of K’s.
I hate talking about him in the past tense like this
I liked Wang.
ID,
You are correct.. good analysis..
Let’s hope Wang can renew his career in Washington. He looked ok last year. Not the same velocity but good enough to get people out. I hope he continues to get healthier and improve.
bheyman99 Barry Bonds 30 days house arrest & 2 years probation, but it’s being appealed, according to ESPN. http://es.pn/rDmFdf
really surprised that there hasn’t been an announcement on yu yet. everyone’s speculating that toronto won, but originally there were rumors of a $60M bid. the nypost said today that the general concessus is that the jays won with a bid in the $40-$50M range, but if its below $50M than i wouldn’t be that surprised to find that it was the nats or even the yankees.
dogface December 16th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Per Twitter, Bonds = 2 years probation, 250 hrs community service, 30 days house arrest
—
Pretty much about righ, maybe a little on the light side. I thought he might get more house arrest, looks like they sort of replaced it with community servcie.
patrick – Also, Wang never performed drastically below a 4ERA (3.63 his career low), how wrong was that prediction really?
PECOTA is a funny one to begin with, but with a pitcher like Wang should actually be more accurate than the rest because it us3es batted ball profiles and similarity scores which would compare him to and project his career along the lines of other sinkerball/groundball type pitchers.
Bonds will perform his community service by traveling to front offices around the league and lecturing GM’s on the dangers of signing Barry Zito.
I’m more talking about PECOTA and other projection systems that would constantly expect him to pitch above a 4 ERA .. when in actuality he was closer to an ace than anything else
=======================================
Excluding his last season with the Yankees, his ERA was 3.8 and his xFIP well above 4.00. Those projections probably weren’t all that outrageous.
Excluding his last season with the Yankees, his ERA was 3.8 and his xFIP well above 4.00. Those projections probably weren’t all that outrageous.
—
Point is the xFIP means very little for Wang because although his k rates were comically low, he was an extremely effective pitcher.
In their first full seasons, there’s virtually no difference in Wang and Nova. The only real differences were that nova walked and struck out a few more hitters per 9 innings than wang and wang got more DPs, but, different infields and more innings pitched by Wang would account for much of that. Basically, the same pitcher,
I can’t wait for the Hughes/Nova showdown in ST
Erin December 16th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
bheyman99 Barry Bonds 30 days house arrest & 2 years probation, but it’s being appealed, according to ESPN. http://es.pn/rDmFdf
————————————————————————————————————————-
Add a $4000 fine. He’d better be satisfied with a slap on the wrist as opposed to a punch in the mouth….or is it the government that’s appealing this?
And the Justice Dept. was gonna burn Roger Clemens at the stake?
Add a $4000 fine. He’d better be satisfied with a slap on the wrist as opposed to a punch in the mouth….or is it the government that’s appealing this?
===========================
Hard to imagine that it isn’t the government that’s appealing.
Bonds’ side is appealing.
Maybe the government figured this was cheaper than building a cell that he could get his melon into.
Crime does pay…..Bonds lives in a 15,000 square foot home, not too bad for house arrest…..
I’m sure the legal costs and however much hush money he paid Anderson is more significant than the sentence.
Bonds’ side is appealing
=================
Really? Must not want to part with the $4K.
Or is he appealing the conviction?
GB:
Bonds, Major League Baseball’s career leader with 762 home runs, now has 14 days to file his intention to appeal his conviction.
New Post —->
Bonds’ head was pushing Michael Kay’s for size supremacy….and that didn’t even factor in the egos involved.
New Post: Trade market prices remain sky high
One day I’ll make you teach me the arrow thingy, Erin…
Pat M. December 16th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Crime does pay…..Bonds lives in a 15,000 square foot home, not too bad for house arrest…..
————————————————————————————————————————-
Well, at least he can travel to other zip codes. A trip from the kitchen to the living room must be two.
DONNYBROOK December 16th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
- GHOSTY -
First we got a pitching staff to rival the O’s 4 20 game winners, and Now Montero is gonna Score And knock in OVER 100 in 2012. I see Potential in all these players, but you guys are talkin’ like Stengel did when ballyhooing the expansion Mets.
=====================
Donny,
Who are you talking to? I didn’t say any of those things. It’s sad that you are so inept and so lacking in an actual point, that you have to put words in somebody else’s mouth to try (emphasis on tryA) and making up stuff.
BTW, I’m still waiting to hear about how Nova “flat-out broke down.”