Not sure why, but I don’t get too worked up about Hall of Fame voting. I like the Hall of Fame, I’ve been to Cooperstown several times, and I love seeing the results every year… but the debate of who should be in and who shouldn’t just doesn’t light much of a fire for me. I have my opinions, and if I ever have a vote I’ll obviously put much more thought and research into it, but for now, I’m happy being an observer.
Which is one of many reasons I’m glad other people are also writing about baseball this time of year.
This year’s Hall of Fame class will be announced on Monday, and over at The Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe has done his research. He doesn’t offer a list of who should receive votes for the Hall of Fame, instead he lists who will get votes based on various trends and historical data.
Jaffe expects Larkin to get into the Hall of Fame with a big leap from 62 percent to 82 percent of the vote. He expects Williams to get just 12 percent in his first year on the ballot. Don Mattingly is predicted to see a modest bump to 18 percent, and Tim Raines is projected at 52 percent.
There is a similar trend at Baseball Think Factory, which posts voting results from revealed ballots — writers who publish their votes — to build some early expectations.
Based on those revealed ballots, Larkin is over 90 percent while Williams is reaches only 2.5 percent (two out of 81 ballots).