Timing is everything
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 30, 2012 
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In the winter of 2008, the Yankees had huge money coming off the books. They also had a free agent market that included two premier players — one a pitcher, the other a hitter — who were still in their late 20s with compelling big league track records that included terrific stretch runs the previous season.
Opportunity presented itself, and the Yankees pounced, committing much of their payroll and their future to CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira. With significant pitching concerns, they also committed five years and $82.5 million to A.J. Burnett.
For so many reasons, the timing was right for a splash, and the Yankees made a big one.
This morning’s Pinch Hitter, Brendan, sees timing a little differently this winter. It’s not so much about what’s available. It’s about what’s soon to be gone. The possibility of losing the game’s greatest closer has Brendan thinking about a different window of opportunity: The opportunity to win another championship while the ninth inning is in familiar, safe hands.
It’s a perfectly fair point. Teams have to strike when they have a chance, and certainly Mariano Rivera has been a key to the past five Yankees championships. It makes sense to chase another title while he’s still around.
Thing is, the Yankees have to — whether they want to or not — begin to consider a life without Mo. They’ve lost Andy Pettitte. They’ve lost Jorge Posada. Some point soon, they’ll lose Rivera, and eventually Derek Jeter.
And you know what the expectation will be when Rivera and Jeter retire? A championship, same as it’s always been.
Timing is everything, and certainly the Yankees owe it to themselves to go after a championship while they still have Rivera in the ninth inning. But the Yankees also owe it to themselves to envision a championship team that’s led by Robinson Cano, Dave Robertson and Michael Pineda. This is a big-picture team, and like or not, the big picture includes a finite future for the game’s greatest relief pitcher.
The Yankees have to be prepared today to win a championship with Rivera, and they have be prepared tomorrow to win one without him.
Associated Press photo
As great as Mariano has been and as much as I am grateful for his contribution, I think the Yankees have given him at least as much as he has given them, and really owe him nothing at this point, other than to basically do what they have been doing.
Life goes on as it did with past Yankee heroes but a Mariano Rivera only comes along once in awhile if at all. All the Yankees can hope for is a reasonable semblance.
Some young fireballer phenom will surface somewhere in baseball but can he stand the test of time like Mariano did ?
Certainly no Closer is gonna be equal to Mo, but the free agent market this offseason was jammed with Closers. It simply is Not that difficult to get a good Closer for the 9th. The Phils simply blew it when they signed Papelbon shortly after the season ended and overpaid. The concern about finding someone to adequately man the 9th when Mo departs is Chicken Little stuff.
They have already have great in-house replacement candidates for Mo. It’s probably their greatest strength.
“Craw
Except for trading Hughes (I don’t like selling assets that low if you have a choice), I like your take.”
Rich,
Trading Hughes proposal is the last resort and greatly depending on what value is coming back for him. I will not trade him low.
I keep looking at Kuroda’s age and immediately get a shiver.
Bill Hall?
I guess that is as good as any utility player out there.
Cashman, I defend you like Perry Mason, but not on this one.
http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rose.....2372318208
A mL deal?
It better be.
Hughes v Nova – who has a better 2012?
My vote goes to Hughes.
Yankees had better be thinking about how they would go about winning THIS YEAR without mariano being marianio. he is 42 and while he is in great shape, he is at an age where he could begin to lose it enough to make a difference. I know Yankees fans want to think Mo is superhuman, but alas he is not. How many closers above the age of 41 have had huge save seasons?
Trevor Hoffman was something of an ironman throughout his career, posting more than 50 apperances in 15 of his last 16 seasons. at age 41 in 2009, Hoffman saved 37 and posted a 1.83 era. In 2010 at age 42, his era jumped to over 5, he saves only 10 games, he lost his role as the sole closer and his career ended. eckersley was also something of an iron man, posting over 5appearences in 9 of his last 10 seasons. Eck saved 36 games in 1997 when he turned 42, then the next year saved 5 games and was finished. Father time catches up with you quickly at that age.
Another thing to think about is that at this point any injury could become career ending. This is why soriano is on the team. Hopefully we can get another great year out of Mo and it won’t be a problem, but you unfortunately, at this point you can’t just assume Mo will be Mo all year.
this must be that other bombshell cashman is going to drop
would suck to lose mo, but there is still soriano, robertson and joba (even though he should be starting)…..
Could it mean Nunez is being discussed in other talks?
“Yankees had better be thinking about how they would go about winning THIS YEAR without mariano being marianio.”
Soriano/Robertson are much better than what most teams have as closers/high leverage guys-in-waiting, so that’s not a concern.
The concern would be that Girardi would stick with an ineffective Mo out of loyalty. Now, as much as I hated Girardi’s lineup inflexibility in the playoffs, this is far more difficult, and would be for any manager.
In fact, Mo might have to be the one to step aside.
Bill Hall?
—-
Might as well just have Laird be the guy. Hall stinks.
Wow. Already talk of Mo having to be the one to step aside.
Gee, thanks Mo. You’ve been stellar for years, and the season hasn’t started as yet, but you should think about stepping aside the first signs of slipping.
Could be Billy Hall filling the 2011 Chavez role.
Looking at his OPS+ the last three seasons (23,69,60, respectively), I am nearly 100% confident that it would be a mL deal and that it wouldn’t affect Nunez.
Looking at his OPS+ the last three seasons (23,69,60, respectively), I am nearly 100% confident that it would be a mL deal and that it wouldn’t affect Nunez.
–
Those 3 OPS+ are all from the same season
He had a 103 with Boston
“Gee, thanks Mo. You’ve been stellar for years, and the season hasn’t started as yet, but you should think about stepping aside the first signs of slipping.”
If you are referring to my post, I was merely using another person’s hypothetical as a point of departure to look at possible scenarios.
Are we to be so constrained in our thinking here that a mere hypothetical is taken to mean that he “should think about stepping aside the first signs of slipping”?
If so, that’s kind of crazy.
hall sounds like ST fodder.
“Those 3 OPS+ are all from the same season He had a 103 with Boston”
MY BAD! (damn, multi-tasking fail)
So we are looking at 60, 103, 58
Rich,
Probably…..they could be leaking that to push Chavez.
Remmber from a year ago. Dateline March 2, 2011 (MLBTR):
•Earlier today, Yankees GM Brian Cashman told versatile Astros veteran Bill Hall that the club was “this close” to signing him, tweets Jack Curry of the YES Network.
Cashman always follows through on his obsessions and doesn’t let data from the real world change his mind.
The Prince Fielder signing makes a lot more sense today than it did last week. Heyman and Stark are both reporting (Tweeting) that Victor Martinez needed microfracture surgery – they won’t be able to fix the ACL for at least 8 weeks – it’s possible his career is over.
I doubt Vmart ‘s career is over…..but his catching days probably are.
I think the Fielder signing was terrific even if Martinez was healthy. Guys that young and that good are rare. As for Martinez, Kenny Phillips on the Giants and Zach Randolph and Amare have had successful recoveries from microfracture, and have to jump and get hit. IDK whether or not the ACL makes a recovery less likely, but I think Martinez could probably DH at some point.
The concern would be that Girardi would stick with an ineffective Mo out of loyalty. Now, as much as I hated Girardi’s lineup inflexibility in the playoffs, this is far more difficult, and would be for any manager.
In fact, Mo might have to be the one to step aside.
—————————————————————–
Are we to be so constrained in our thinking here that a mere hypothetical is taken to mean that he “should think about stepping aside the first signs of slipping”?
If so, that’s kind of crazy.
—————————————————————
Rich, I’ve been called worse.
But you did make the inference.
Thankfully, it’s unlikely that Mo would ‘slip’ that much this season where consideration would have to be made to replace him during the season or post-season. Let’s just cross that bridge when we come to it. And knowing Mo, he’ll leave before that ever happens.
Pitching to Cabrera and Fielder wont be fun at YS…..
Rich in NJ January 30th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
I think the Fielder signing was terrific even if Martinez was healthy. Guys that young and that good are rare. As for Martinez, Kenny Phillips on the Giants and Zach Randolph and Amare have had successful recoveries from microfracture, and have to jump and get hit. IDK whether or not the ACL makes a recovery less likely, but I think Martinez could probably DH at some point.
——————
I’m not a doctor, don’t play one on tv and didn’t stay in a holiday inn express last night so I can’t answer that – I do know there are some players (Greg Oden, Steve Smith) who haven’t been the same since microfracture surgery – as Blake says, if nothing else his days of squatting behind the plate are over.
Figure that it’s going to be at least Memorial Day 2013 before we see him taking meaningful hacks again.
Bill Hall = yuchh
blake…..Both guys need to be pitched up and in
DaSaint007
I didn’t mean to insult you, and if I did, I apologize, but I am of the opinion that it is reasonable to discuss the potential decline of a 42 year old closer, even if it’s someone as unique as Mo, without suggesting that he should step aside at the first sign of trouble.
Hardly earthshaking, but the tell with Mo will be a loss of command. He has remained never as effective despite losing a few mph off of his cutter because he can pretty much put it anywhere he wants.
Bill Hall .??
blake January 30th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Pitching to Cabrera and Fielder wont be fun at YS…..
———————
Nor will be pitching to Pujols and Morales or Ellsbury, Youk, Pedroia and Ortiz or Longoria and Pena or Bautista and Lind or Hosmer, Butler and Gordon…
This is why the Yankees went out and got Pineda and Kuroda. The Yankees can still match up well with those other groups with Grandy, Alex, Tex and Cano – and now they have better pitching than those other teams too.
Pat M. were you an INF. when you played ?
Mike Ri January 30th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Bill Hall .??
————–
That was a year ago – they’re not going to have interest in him now.
- blake -
Which is it? The Yanks pushing Chavez or trading Nunez?
I hear you, Chip, but just quickly googling, Oden did recover from his first microfracture surgery.
Seeing how V-Mart only caught in 26 games last year I think his catching career was pretty much over anyway.
They’ve learned a lot thru microfracture surgeries and it’s not likely career-ending especially for a DH. Detroit is still going to be AWFUL defensively.
Billy Hall is a decent utility guy who has some power at the plate, but he does nothing to add LH punch off the bench. That’s significant to me because both Swisher and Tex have their issues hitting lefty.
That was a year ago – they’re not going to have interest in him now.
–
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Yankees in serious talks with Bill Hall. Role could be similar to what he had with #RedSox in 2010. Backup IF, RH bat in OF. #MLB
Yankees In Serious Talks With Bill Hall
By Tim Dierkes [January 30, 2012 at 11:25am CST]
The Yankees are in serious talks with utility man Bill Hall, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal thinks Hall could reprise a 2010 Red Sox-type role, and notes that the 32-year-old works out in the offseason with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.
Hall began the season as the Astros’ starting second baseman, but finished with a .211/.261/.314 line after adding a stint with the Giants. He received the contract on the strength of his 2010 season, in which he hit 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances. Hall seems highly likely to sign a minor league deal this offseason.
So basically they might sign this guy because he is buddies with Long and is probably even cheaper than Chavez? Talk about scraping the bottom of the barrel. Bill Hall sucks
Again, mL deal, fine. ML deal, head scratcher.
Rich, no insult taken at all!
its just Bill Hall being Bill Hall
At 1 point in the season Mo will blow several saves in a row. Cutter doesn’t cut for whatever reason. This happens like clockwork. Some will blow a gasket and call him done while others remain calm and ride the slump out.
Remember 5-6 seasons ago when he opened the season blowing saves? I think it against against the Sox? That was kind of worrisome.
I think they’re as prepared for life beyond him as they’ve ever been.
Anyone hear Exactly how Martinez tore up that knee. All I ever read was that he hurt it during offseason conditioning. Bearing in mind the physical activities\ restrictions teams have written into the contracts of big $$$ players, it’s curious that nothing as to the exact way he was injured has been written about. Jeff Kent and his truck immediately come to mind.
Rich in NJ January 30th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
I hear you, Chip, but just quickly googling, Oden did recover from his first microfracture surgery.
——————
True – and basketball players (based on their freakish height) are a completely different animal. I just thought at the time that signing Fielder was an overreaction to the Martinez injury, but compound the ACL with microfracture and meniscus work and I can understand Dombrowski thinking that he can’t count on ever getting anything from Victor and if Martinez doesn’t come back then he can still park Miggy or Prince at the DH spot.
I’m still not that sold on them –
Their plan of playing Miggy at 3b is just amusing. Forget the fact that Cabrera couldn’t play there when he was in far better condition than he is now, it means they’re also playing Peralta at SS. It is the worst left side of the infield in baseball and Don Kelly and Prince aren’t too much better on the right side.
They are a much better team with Cabrera at DH, Peralta at 3b and going and getting a defensive minded player for SS.
Also, they need to move Austin Jackson out of the leadoff spot – he was brutal there last year (.249 BA, .317 OBP) what they should do (if they’re committed to Miggy at 3b) is sign Damon to DH and have a lineup of:
Damon – DH
Avila – C
Cabrera – 3b
Prince – 1b
Young – LF
Peralta – SS
Boesch – RF
Jackson – CF
Kelly – 2b
http://riveraveblues.com/
A nice greinke article at rab,thay says he is being seriously overlooked.
These are the kinds of deals that teams should make.
A pitcher as good,or almost as good,but will command much less money.
“For one, on that aforelinked list of most valuable pitchers since 2006, Greinke is above Hamels, checking in at 7th with a 3.41/3.14/3.39 pitcher triple slash in more than 200 fewer innings than Hamels along with a sterling 8.68 K/9 and equally drool-worthy 2.33 BB/9. Of those top 30 pitchers, the only hurlers with a higher K/9 are Tim Lincecum, Clayton Kershaw and Jake Peavy, and the latter hasn’t been at that level since 2009. The only ones with superior FIPs are Lincecum, Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson”.
“This past season, Greinke — always a strikeout-heavy pitcher — upped his game to levels of even more ridiculousness, leading all of MLB with a career-high 10.54 K/9. His 2.98 FIP was 9th in the league, while his 2.56 xFIP was first. These are big boy numbers, and the only reason you likely didn’t hear more about Greinke’s huge year was because he started the season injured and was also betrayed by his defense, as his 3.83 ERA was fueled in part by the second-highest BABIP (.318) of his career that helped fuel the third-lowest strand rate (a below-league-average 69.8%) of his career”.
Jerkface January 30th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
That was a year ago – they’re not going to have interest in him now.
–
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Yankees in serious talks with Bill Hall. Role could be similar to what he had with #RedSox in 2010. Backup IF, RH bat in OF. #MLB
———————
My bad.
Guess they are looking for someone who can play more positions than Chavez.
Also, since he can play OF he might not take Chavez’s spot, but instead the spot of a Dickerson/Maxwell
guys it’s the 25th roster spot who cares!
plus cc is vouching for him so yea…..
Why is it that everyone goes to pieces when Cashman signs a minor league insurance policy? Seems that Cashman did pretty wel with his insurance policies last year with Chavez and Colon, as well as Garcia. Hall is for the time being, just filler at the AAA level. If the Yanks don’t re-sign Chavez, Laird and Hall will battle it out. It’s not a big deal.
If the Yankees were to sign another LHP for the pen to compete with Logan, Okajima and the Rule 5 kid who would you prefer:
Mike Gonzalez or Hong Chi-Kuo
For the purposes of this – both would be getting minor league contracts.
We hope it’s just a mL deal.
GreenBeret7 January 30th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Why is it that everyone goes to pieces when Cashman signs a minor league insurance policy? Seems that Cashman did pretty wel with his insurance policies last year with Chavez and Colon, as well as Garcia. Hall is for the time being, just filler at the AAA level. If the Yanks don’t re-sign Chavez, Laird and Hall will battle it out. It’s not a big deal.
———————–
I’m shocked to say it but what GB is saying makes sense.
Someone must have adjusted his meds.
I want No part of a Yankee bench containing both Chavez, and Hall. I like Nunez, as he has yet to reach his offensive ceiling, but Hall and Chavez are what the fight profession calls “shot”. Resting Jeet and A-Rod more often requires a better hitting bench than the combination of Hall and Chavez can provide.
“Which is it? The Yanks pushing Chavez or trading Nunez?”
More likely the latter.
Pat M,
Yup…..tough to get it there though….easy to make a mistake.
I meant the former….
If the Yanks were to trade Nunez, where does he go, and is he included to sweeten an AJ deal?
You should get as many minor league deal invites that have any chance of contributing to say yes as possible…..its no risk other than a plane ticket
Another way to look at the bench is that very cheap marginal players could be used as placeholders only to give way to better players as the season wears on and trades or promotions (Laird) become better options.
makes a lot of sense… nunez in trade talks and yankees covering themselves
They can’t trade Nunez because the only backup SS option is Pena, and he would suck over an extended period if Jeter got hurt.
I do Not see Chavez or Hall accepting an assignment to the Bushes should they fail to make the team outta ST. This would make both all-or-nothing. I’m guessing the Yanks not signing Chavez is due to Chavez refusing to ink a minor league deal.
NYYs aren’t going to pay upwards of $20 mil to unload Burnett to get nothing in return and then put Nunez in the deal just to “sweeten the pot”.
- Rich -
Hall plays SS.
I’m not saying it would happen, but you could have a bench of:
Cervelli, Nunez, Jones, Hall with Chavez at DH
You wind up with the following scenario of guys backing up:
Cervelli – C
Nunez – 2b/SS/3b
Hall – 2b/3b/LF/RF
Jones – DH/LF/RF
Chavez – DH/3b/1b
with Gardner serving as the starting LF and back up CF
“They can’t trade Nunez because the only backup SS option is Pena, and he would suck over an extended period if Jeter got hurt.”
How many games difference do you think Nunez over Pena would make over say a 60 game span? Id be willing to bet its negligible ……Pena can’t hit…..but he doesn’t kick the ball all over the field either….which is really an even words thing than not being able to hit as a back up
If the Yanks sign either Hall or Chavez, it’ll most likely be a minor league deal and an invitation to ST and a shot of making the team going north, just like last year. Whatever, it’s hardly a reason to turn in your season tickets and burn your Jeter jersey in protest.
- Beret7 -
Don’t be so quick to rule out the Yanks eating a lot of AJ’s contract. The Yankee committment\$$$ to AJ in 2012 may be holding up a thing or 3. As you were soldier. By-the-by. Did you happen to watch “The DI” last night on TMC? I thought I recognized you peeling a spud or 2.
Nunez will get plenty of at bats this year…300-350 would be about right.
DONNYBROOK
OK, but 0 games in 2011, 15 AB in 2010, 0 games in 2009, 0 games in 2008.
That’s a guy who I would only play at SS for like an inning.
I love Mo and would like to see him pitch for another season or two beyond this if he could, but I don’t think he will.
That being said, we have Robertson, Hughes and Job all in the mix for 7, 8 and 9.
We’ll be fine. The biggest hurdle will be psychological for all of us.
- blake -
That bench you got listed above is basically Nunez, Jones, and some whiffle ball bats. NIX
“How many games difference do you think Nunez over Pena would make over say a 60 game span?”
blake
Nunez may still be getting better offensively and defensively. A couple teams may want him to start. So I can’t quantify in terms of WAR, but I think he can be significantly better than Pena, who may not be a MLer.
- Rich -
Your probably being generous with that 1 inning too.
Rich,
All things being equal Id much rather have Nunez on the club than Pena…..however I wouldn’t hold him out of a trade if it really made the team better just because he’s the utility guy. If Jeter or Cano missed most of the season then yea Nunez would probably be a lot better to gave than Pena…..but as a straight back up role I doubt they’d be much difference. Again not trying to give Nunez away because he’s good to have….but id move him in the right deal for a bat if need be.
DONNYBROOK January 30th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
- Rich -
Hall plays SS.
—
Hall has not really played SS since 2006.
If the “DI” was the movie with Jack Webb, that was the Marine Corps. Hell of a lot of difference in Army Special Forces and the Marines. And sorry to disappoint you, but, the military hasn’t had military KPs in more than 35 years.
blake
But with Jeter and A-Rod being 37, 38 and A-Rod’s recent physical issues, is it a prudent risk to remove a BUI like Nunez with Bill Hall/Pena/Laird as the insurance? I don’t think so.
Now, if Nunez could have been moved in a package for a pitcher to save Montero, I would understand taking that risk, but what can they get via trade now that fills a need that can’t be filled elsewhere?
Nunez and Swisher for a young, impact RF? I’d consider that, but I suspect that Swisher is in their longer term plans.
So I don’t view Nunez as an untouchable, but because they are so vulnerable on the left side of the infield, it would have to be a very tempting return.
- Beret7 -
Sorry I lumped you in with the Webb’s Marines. We all appreciate your sacrifice for this country. I am aware of KP being kaput.
Hall makes complete sense.
Need someone to replace Chavez’s HR power.
DBrook,
I made no sacrifices. I did what I enjoyed doing. Sacrifices were made by families and by those in Arlington and the names on a wall. I appreciate the thoughts, though.
- Beret7 -
Obviously, you have been taught both modesty and dedication your Entire life. Your immediate and previous family are to be commended.
Bill Hall probably would come at the recommendation of Kevin Long similar to how Colon came from the recommendation of Tony Pena.
He would have to have a “lights out” spring training. More likely at AAA to serve as insurance as others such as Sublett, Adams, etc. work their way up in the system.
Eduardo Nunez is not going anywhere.
I don’t see how Nunez gets traded. Like Rich said, if Jeter or A-Rod got hurt (and there is a decent chance of this considering their age) would they really want Pena getting extended starts at SS or 3B? I doubt it. Plus I think they really like Nunez’s speed and he’s got some pop in the bat. He’ll be able to DH some, and fill in at infield positions when Jeter, A-Rod, and Cano DH. I doubt he gets traded unless some really favorable deal comes up for the Yanks.
More likely Hall signs a minor league deal with a opt-out at the end of march if he doesn’t make the team going north. Can’t see him agreeing to a deal that sticks him in AAA.
I agree with Blake here. If you can improve the Team by dealing 1 bench player, you do it. I like Nunez, but as Spoke would say, “Sometimes the needs of the many, outweigh the needs of the few……………or the One”.
“Spock”
New Thread
‘Rosenthal: Yankees in “serious talks” with Bill Hall’
The biggest issue with the Hall discussion is whether that tells us anything else, such as this if it means no Chavez? Surely, he is not meant to be the additional outfield back-up.
They need a good left handed bat. Hopefully, if we all know it Cashman does too. We can also hope if one costs actual money they will spend it.