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Swisher’s market value coming into focus

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jun 14, 2012 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

In late May, the Orioles gave Adam Jones the largest contract in franchise history. Late Monday night, the Dodgers locked up Andre Ethier with a five-year deal. The outfield market is already being defined, and that matters for Yankees and Nick Swisher.

Swisher becomes a free agent at the end of this season, and the deals for Jones and Ethier are already helping to establish his open-market value. Jones got six years, $85.5 million from Baltimore, but he’s a 26-year-old center fielder. Not a perfect comparison for Swisher. Really, it’s the Ethier deal that gives a glimpse into Swisher’s perceived worth.

Ethier and Swisher have had pretty similar numbers the past three seasons, but Ethier is a year younger, he’s having a better season, he’s played his entire big league career in L.A. and he’s the second-best hitter in that Dodgers lineup. He’s probably worth more than Swisher — especially to the Dodgers — but the feeling in Los Angeles seems to be that Ethier could have gotten more than his five years, $85 million had he really pushed negotiations and tried to get as much as possible.

Bottom line: Even if Swisher can’t get quite what Ethier got, he probably won’t be far behind. He’s certainly not going to sign for something like three years, $30 million, no matter how much he loves New York.  If the Yankees want to bring him back, it’s going to cost them.

Michael Bourn, Melky Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino and Carlos Quentin are also on track to become free agents this winter, so the market provides some outfield alternatives, but the Yankees would rather cut payroll than add another big-money, multi-year contract. They’re already going to have to pick up expensive options on Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano next season. The most viable and immediate organizational options might be Eduardo Nunez (if the Yankees wanted to move him to the outfield) or Ronnier Mustelier (if the Yankees believe his minor league success can carry over).

I said this winter that I expect Swisher to move on — and I still think that’ll happen — but it’s hard to say how the Yankees will fill that void in right field. Do they sign another high-cost free agent? Do they role the dice with a younger player? Do they employ a cheap Ibanez/Jones-type platoon? Or do they stick with the guy they know and pay market price?

After Ethier’s deal, is more or less likely that Swisher spends another season in pinstripes?

Associated Press photo

 
 

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88 Responses to “Swisher’s market value coming into focus”

  1. luis June 14th, 2012 at 7:45 pm

    Hi Chad,

    Very good posts all day long. There is no chance that they retain Swisher. The 189 mil mark makes it impossible. I say that they either try to trade for a cost control option or go for a cheap platoon option like the one you suggested. I would give Mustelier a long look before i trade for any cost control player first. Ideally, I would call him up sooner rather than later so we can see what he can do after the adjustment period that is bound to happen.

  2. luis June 14th, 2012 at 7:47 pm

    In any case, the team will take an offensive hit. Replacing Swish production is not going to be easy or likely. The Pitching and defense departments will have to step it up for a while.

  3. CCBiggs June 14th, 2012 at 7:49 pm

    Those are outrageous comparisons. Those guys are key players for their teams. Swisher is a complementary player who hits 6th or 7th in the Yankee lineup. He might be able to get that kind of money if a weak-hitting team wants to sign him as their big off-season free agent (kind of like Jayson Werth last year). But there’s no way the Yankees will give him that kind of contract. And no way they should!

  4. luis June 14th, 2012 at 7:52 pm

    It is worth noting that most clubs are extending their impact position players, before they hit free agency. And that trend will continue for the foreseeable future. It is going to be very difficult to get an impact bat through FA. We are going to either have to trade for one, or get past their prime players.

  5. luis June 14th, 2012 at 7:54 pm

    CCBiggs,

    They won’t…You can bet your house on it…The problem is that even if he doesn’t get that kind of deal on the market, he is going to get one not that far behind. Which means that he is going to be too expensive to keep.

  6. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:02 pm

    “Those are outrageous comparisons. Those guys are key players for their teams. Swisher is a complementary player who hits 6th or 7th in the Yankee lineup. ”

    That doesnt matter on the open market…….4/60 sounds close to me….dont think the Yanks will.go there.

  7. m June 14th, 2012 at 8:03 pm

    Where will Swisher end up if he’s not with the Yankees?

    I doubt the Yankees give him what he deserves given the priority of Cano and Granderson.

  8. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:04 pm

    Ethier isnt much if any better than Swisher is…..hes a better hitter vs RHP….thats about it….bad outfielder and cant hit lefties at all.

  9. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:04 pm

    The Braves will need a LFer next year

  10. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:06 pm

    M,

    Atlanta likes him very much.

  11. astrocityfan June 14th, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    How far away is Tyler Austin? Did I hear during the Braves series that they promoted Simmons straight from AA? Any chance the Yankees get more aggressive with some of the promising positional talent?

  12. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    M,

    Another issue is that if they extend Granderson, they won’t probably be able to keep Hughes. There are going to be tough choices ahead.

  13. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    Torii Hunter.

  14. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    Swisher got cheered more than most the braves did in Atlanta …its a good fit for him if the Yanks cant work it out.

  15. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:10 pm

    Astro,

    Tytler is in low A ball, he is probably going to be challenged and be promoted to Tampa. But i doubt that he is ready before 2014 at the earliest.

  16. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    Yanks feel with their IF, Grandy, Gardy and cheap utility guys like chavez, jones , ibanez etc…they have enough offense w/out swisher and will find someone old and cheap like Hunter or work out a platoon in RF.

  17. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:08 pm

    Torii Hunter.

    ======================

    Yikes….But he is the kind of player that they would be willing to sign and could afford at the same time.

  18. GreenBeret7 June 14th, 2012 at 8:13 pm

    I’m hoping that by tomorrow, they post his homer by Cody Johnson from tonight’ game in Altoona, PA. There is a amusment park outside of the rightfield fence and he just hit one onto the tracks of a roller coaster. Zorro Almonte has a 2 run homer too.

  19. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:16 pm

    I don’t think they think swish is an important cog and is expendable.
    Hal feels he has spent enough and can’t say i blame him.

  20. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:20 pm

    mr. mick,
    If they let Swisher go, they probably won’t be able to get a better replacement Hunter might be one.

  21. jmills June 14th, 2012 at 8:20 pm

    Hi Yankee fans ! I know my Jays are a sucking , but a couple of great days avec my daughter and I don’t care :) Take care ! – hope you get your , ” Sudden , ” Sam . J

  22. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:20 pm

    I wonder if they want to keep that Charleston crew together as much as possible…….

  23. m June 14th, 2012 at 8:21 pm

    Atlanta. That’s cool.

    Okay. Here’s 2 more:

    1) who wins the NBA game tonight
    2) what did you guys think about the Bradley decision over Pacquiao?

  24. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:23 pm

    If they let Swisher go, they probably won’t be able to get a better replacement Hunter might be one.
    =====================Mr Tom
    yanks on austerity, who woulda thunk it, hamilton would be the Natural

  25. cofuzz June 14th, 2012 at 8:24 pm

    Swisher probably won’t be back and although his enthusiasm will be missed, he’s not exactly irreplaceable.
    A stopgap like Hunter could be a good answer for 2013 while we await the arrival of low minor league talent.
    The timing of the arrival of Williams, Austin, Flores, etc. could be better, but I think the planned austerity budget of 2014 forces decisions starting now.
    I hope the brass don’t force the youngsters to climb faster than they’re capable, but it qouldn’t be such a bad idea to promote the top talent a little faster right now.

  26. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:25 pm

    Mick and Tom,

    Before Hunter, i would rather see what Mustelier has to offer first. He is not Hunter fielding wise, but he is younger and has a very good stick or so it seems. We need to get younger.

  27. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:27 pm

    m,
    If the Heat loses tonight, I don’t care if its the Little Sisters of the Poor that does it. Their arrogance is unbearable.

  28. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:27 pm

    Been sayin for awhile that I can see Tori Hunter in RF next year…..Id love for them to sign Hamilton to a creative deal or trade for a young outfielder but both of those are probably unlikey…..Hunter is exactly the kind of veteran good clubhouse guy they have been targeting lately when they need something and dont want to spend any money.

  29. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:28 pm

    Before Hunter, i would rather see what Mustelier has to offer first.
    =======================
    Bring him up when they trade swish at the deadline.

  30. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:30 pm

    blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:20 pm

    I wonder if they want to keep that Charleston crew together as much as possible…….

    ============================

    I would Blake…It would help their sense of team and it would cement the core attitude that they will need…But then there is the development clock, it is different from one individual from another, so this may force their hand.

  31. jmills June 14th, 2012 at 8:31 pm

    Do you have anything for ,………Bautista ?

  32. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    luis,
    I think you’re right. I’d like to see him too. I’m so bored on an off-night that I’m watching a water-skiing squirrel on America’s Got Talent (wife’s choice)/ I’ve got my pellet gun ready for the August squirrel season. No fire arms inside city limits.

  33. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    We need to get younger.
    ==================
    The IF is set as is CF and LF. I don’t think they are worried about their ages and have no room for replacement .

  34. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:33 pm

    mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:28 pm

    Before Hunter, i would rather see what Mustelier has to offer first.
    =======================
    Bring him up when they trade swish at the deadline.

    ============================

    Now you are talking! ;) unfortunately i don’t think they trade him…I think they will see what this team can do and let him walk after the season. But yours is a sound idea.

  35. m June 14th, 2012 at 8:33 pm

    Nunez should be playing every inning in RF in AAA.

  36. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    Luis,

    Yea i agree….Id like to see that group come along together

  37. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:35 pm

    mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    We need to get younger.
    ==================
    The IF is set as is CF and LF. I don’t think they are worried about their ages and have no room for replacement .

    =====================

    I would though…But it’s not my call.

  38. blake June 14th, 2012 at 8:37 pm

    They need to find out if Nunez can plah SS….he doesnt hit enough to play a corner outfield spot ideally.

  39. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:37 pm

    tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    luis,
    I think you’re right. I’d like to see him too. I’m so bored on an off-night that I’m watching a water-skiing squirrel on America’s Got Talent (wife’s choice)/ I’ve got my pellet gun ready for the August squirrel season. No fire arms inside city limits.

    ============================

    LMAO!! Why is it that women have even taken control of the remote? ;)

  40. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:39 pm

    luis,
    At least it’s better than Inside Edition. By the way, the squirrel sucked.

  41. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:40 pm

    m June 14th, 2012 at 8:33 pm

    Nunez should be playing every inning in RF in AAA.

    ======================

    Not enough pop….I read an article in Yankee Analyst that suggested shifting Jeter to third, Arod to RF and Nunez plays SS. That i think is a sound idea, the problem seems to be that Arod’s hips may not withstand the outfield and he is a lousy flyball tracker.

  42. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:41 pm

    tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:39 pm

    luis,
    At least it’s better than Inside Edition. By the way, the squirrel sucked.

    ==========================

    :D that’s why i have to TV sets…I hate Inside Edition and my wife loves it.

  43. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:45 pm

    *two TV sets* sorry

  44. mick June 14th, 2012 at 8:45 pm

    he is a lousy flyball tracker.
    ==================
    that would be essential in the OF.

  45. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:48 pm

    Yes Mick, it is essential.

  46. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:50 pm

    Tom,

    And on Mondays i get to watch the Bachelorette. That’s a ridiculous program in deed.

  47. Cashmoney June 14th, 2012 at 8:50 pm

    swisher is a complimentary players and a good one at that. sometimes, numbers can be deceiving…just as the mets try to fill the void of strawberry departure by signing Kevin McReynolds back in the days. A marquee players values and intangibles goes far beyond the numbers itself.

  48. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:53 pm

    mick,
    He can’t track flyballs over his shoulders. At right field, in NYS, he could lean on the outfield wall and come in for anything hit. I really think there’s nothing Arod cant do, if he’s healthy.

  49. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:54 pm

    Blake,

    I would love to have Hamilton patrolling RF, but it ain’t gonna happen.

  50. m June 14th, 2012 at 8:54 pm

    Nunez might not have a lot of pop but he can give us speed and a decent bat in the lineup. Could serve as a stop-gap RF and do it for pennies. Torri Hunter seemed dead the last few years.

  51. cofuzz June 14th, 2012 at 8:56 pm

    How many years would it take to get Quentin?
    Could Carlos Lee do a in RF?
    Matt Diaz crushes lefties, and Luke Scott crushes righties.
    Who else is a non-tender possibility?

  52. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:57 pm

    luis,
    Do they still show The Dating Game down there?

  53. luis June 14th, 2012 at 8:57 pm

    tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:53 pm

    mick,
    He can’t track flyballs over his shoulders. At right field, in NYS, he could lean on the outfield wall and come in for anything hit. I really think there’s nothing Arod cant do, if he’s healthy.

    ========================

    This is a very good point…I liked the suggestion because the OF is a lot less demanding than third base, enabling Arod to stay longer on the field. Jeter with his limited range would benefit from playing in a less rangy position (3rd) and you take advantage of the range and speed of Nunez at short, and with regular play he could be a decent SS.

  54. Tar June 14th, 2012 at 8:58 pm

    Offer Hamilton and Hammels 30 mil one year deals. That’s the least Hal can do if he’s serious about the 189 cap. :D

  55. Cashmoney June 14th, 2012 at 8:59 pm

    i think Nunez can give u 280 average with 10-15 hrs and for pennies…. question is can NY sustain their offense with garner and nunez patrolling their respective corners…

  56. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:00 pm

    m June 14th, 2012 at 8:54 pm

    Nunez might not have a lot of pop but he can give us speed and a decent bat in the lineup. Could serve as a stop-gap RF and do it for pennies. Torri Hunter seemed dead the last few years.

    ============================

    M,

    See my 8:57 post…..I would like anything over Hunter. But as RF option i would like to see what Mustelier can do. He appears to have a good bat and he is only 27

  57. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:03 pm

    tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 8:57 pm

    luis,
    Do they still show The Dating Game down there?

    ===================

    I don’t know….I have a Puerto Rico Direct TV subscription, that’s why i have some American channels. Otherwise i would be stuck with Latin American Direct tv which sucks big time.

  58. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:04 pm

    Tar June 14th, 2012 at 8:58 pm

    Offer Hamilton and Hammels 30 mil one year deals. That’s the least Hal can do if he’s serious about the 189 cap. :D

    ==========================

    :D

  59. rm June 14th, 2012 at 9:04 pm

    I can see the Yankees making Swisher a 1 yr qualifying offer nexr year. If he takes it great we have 1 more year to decide what to do about RF. If he doesn’t at least they get a draft pick.

  60. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:06 pm

    Cashmoney June 14th, 2012 at 8:59 pm

    i think Nunez can give u 280 average with 10-15 hrs and for pennies…. question is can NY sustain their offense with garner and nunez patrolling their respective corners…

    ===================================

    I think he can be a very good player and would bring a lot to the lineup. In fact, i do think that the lineup misses both of those guys. But you can have one corner outfielder with no pop, but two i would say is stretching it a little.

  61. Tar June 14th, 2012 at 9:08 pm

    rm or anybody how does the draft pick compensation pick work going forward ? Has the rules changed, are ther still type A and B? Thanks

  62. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:11 pm

    rm and Tar,

    I am not sure…But i think that in order to get the draft pick, the contract the player gets has to be in the top 125 contract on MLB, or something along those lines

  63. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 9:13 pm

    Made the mistake (or the right decision) to take my first “5-hour Energy” late this afternoon. That means I’m around here for a little while longer. That stuff works. Sorry!

  64. Cashmoney June 14th, 2012 at 9:13 pm

    one way to compensate is find reasonable offense bargain at dh and invest in a offensive catcher. it’s somewhat reasonable to think u can obtain a decent to good dh with reasonable amount money. offensive catcher is a dif story.

  65. Cashmoney June 14th, 2012 at 9:13 pm

    a reasonable offensive bargain.

  66. RadioKev June 14th, 2012 at 9:14 pm

    I say stop gap it and wait on the young outfielders.

  67. rm June 14th, 2012 at 9:17 pm

    luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:11 pm
    rm and Tar,

    I am not sure…But i think that in order to get the draft pick, the contract the player gets has to be in the top 125 contract on MLB, or something along those lines
    ———————
    I’m not sure either but somebody was throwing aroun a number like 14 MM$ as a qualifying offer. If that is accurate the Yakees could do that for one year

  68. rm June 14th, 2012 at 9:19 pm

    From MLBTR:
    A few months from now, when the season ends and players file for free agency, teams, agents and players will navigate a new system for determining free agent compensation. Here’s a brief primer on compensation under the sport’s new collective bargaining agreement:

    •Type A and Type B designations have been eliminated. Instead, teams will have to make players a qualifying offer to be eligible for draft pick compensation.
    •The qualifying offer, which will be determined by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year, is expected to fall in the $12-13MM range for the coming offseason. All qualifying offers are for the same duration (one year) and the same amount ($12-13MM).
    •Teams will have until five days after the World Series to make qualifying offers and the players will have seven days to accept.
    •Once a team makes a qualifying offer, the player has two choices: he can accept the one-year deal or decline in it search of other offers. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to surrender a top draft pick to his former team.
    •Teams that sign free agents who turned down qualifying offers will surrender their first round picks. However, the first ten selections in the draft are protected. Teams with protected picks will surrender their second-highest selections. The player’s former team will receive an additional selection at the end of the first round.
    •If teams don’t make a qualifying offer, the player can sign uninhibited.
    •Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be eligible for compensation

  69. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:24 pm

    Tar,

    They have to offer a qualified offer that has to be equal to the average of the top 125 players, if he declines then the club gets the draft pick.

  70. Against All Odds June 14th, 2012 at 9:25 pm

    Okc play so poorly when the games start is it a rhythm issue or too much energy?

  71. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:28 pm

    The Orioles are beating the Pirates 11-5 Are the O’s for real?

  72. cofuzz June 14th, 2012 at 9:30 pm

    I like the qualifying offer idea. Thanks for the full info rm. Definitely give Swisher an offer for one year!
    I see via Heyman that the Yankees aren’t interested in Quentin for this year as a Gardner replacement.
    He’s mashing, but injury prone and a defensive liability.

  73. cofuzz June 14th, 2012 at 9:31 pm

    luis, did you see Pearce with the homer in that game?

  74. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:31 pm

    RadioKev June 14th, 2012 at 9:14 pm

    I say stop gap it and wait on the young outfielders.

    =====================

    Agreed in general terms….The problem is how you stop gap it….I rather see an internal option than a trade (we are bound to overpay) or a FA like Hunter.

  75. tomingeorgia June 14th, 2012 at 9:33 pm

    OK,
    It’s worn off. See you tomorrow.

  76. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:33 pm

    cofuzz June 14th, 2012 at 9:31 pm

    luis, did you see Pearce with the homer in that game?

    ===================

    Nope, i was scrolling through the Extra innings channels and saw the score. They have scorched the Pirates pitching this past two nights.

  77. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:35 pm

    Good night Tom….Hope you can see a nice War movie before bed ;) That is if the wife allows it! ;)

  78. luis June 14th, 2012 at 9:37 pm

    Cashmoney,

    The only offensive catcher that remains an option if i am not mistaken is Napoli.

  79. blake June 14th, 2012 at 9:38 pm

    There isn’t a whole lot in Nunez’s offensive track record to suggest he can hit .280 with 15 homers in the big leagues…..he’s about a .700 OPS hitter so far….maybe he’d get a little better…..maybe he’d get exposed with more playing time….I don’t think he’s the answer in the outfield….hopefully he can get better at SS and either be an option there down the road or bring something in a trade with a team that values him as a SS.

  80. LGY June 14th, 2012 at 9:53 pm

    @keithlaw: Heard Gerrit Cole was dealing tonight – up to 101, slider up to 92.

  81. Against All Odds June 14th, 2012 at 9:55 pm

    Screw you Cole

  82. LGY June 14th, 2012 at 9:58 pm

    NBA refs are the absolute worst. Good grief

  83. cofuzz June 14th, 2012 at 10:01 pm

    Mustelier with 3 more hits tonight in what appears to be a 10-run rule loss for SWB…

  84. RS June 14th, 2012 at 10:06 pm

    I don’t really get what the difference is between the “qualifying offer” and the old arbitration rule in regards to draft pick compensation.

  85. rm June 14th, 2012 at 10:09 pm

    It is unfortunate that Nunez has been on the DL since a few days after he was sent down. I don’t think he becomes an option until he gets heathy and show that he can play defense at at least one position. Hopefully he will get healthy soon play well in AAA an become an option for the Yankees or for something the yankess need in a trade.

    I think Cashman will make Swisher a qualifying offer and if he doesn’t acept it he will sort through the available options and find an acceptable 1 year stop gap. Probably via older FA and/or trade for a younger player unless a minor league option steps up and demonstrates he desercve a chance.

  86. rm June 14th, 2012 at 10:19 pm

    RS June 14th, 2012 at 10:06 pm
    I don’t really get what the difference is between the “qualifying offer” and the old arbitration rule in regards to draft pick compensation.

    —————————-
    The biggest difference is you can’t trade for an expiring contract offer arbitration andget a draft pick. If you are about to lose a player to free agency you can offer a fixed amount equal to the average of the top 125 players salaries. The salary offer is certain and there is no risk of paying much more than you want via arbitration. No more type A or B free agents if you make a qualifying offer and it is declined you get the 1st round pick from the team that signs him (2nd round if they are picks 1-10),

  87. astrocityfan June 14th, 2012 at 10:28 pm

    Luis,
    Thanks for the update on Austin.

    Also saw a funny headline today online where the producer of the Batchelor admitted reality TV is faked. Who knew ? ????

  88. longtimefan June 15th, 2012 at 10:16 am

    I like Swisher, his enthusiam, his energy, and his personality, great for team spirit. If making a choice to retain him, Granderson and Cano, from a talent persepective and business perspective, the call is easy, keep Granderson and Cano. They probably will not replace him with a big name FA at a hugh long term cost, so will have to look in house at limited options.


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