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Arbitration decisions on an already uncertain roster

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 30, 2012 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

With a dozen free agents already, plus a closer who’s likely to opt out by the end of the week, the current Yankees roster is full of holes. Naturally, there’s been a lot of early focus on the players who are leaving, and which players should be brought in to replace them.

But there is a murky middle to be considered.

The Yankees have seven players eligible for arbitration. That means some non-tender candidates, some inevitable raises, and some shifting payroll. The fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors have a formula to help determine how much an arbitration-eligible player is likely to receive, and it’s been proven to be fairly accurate. Here are their expectations for the Yankees.

Phil Hughes
Expected salary: $5.7 million
2012 salary: $3.2 million
A $2.5-million raise is significant, but it’s not enough make Hughes a non-tender candidate. He’s still searching for some consistency, but he’s taken some steps forward, and right now the Yankees need him. If they can find some other starting pitchers on the market, they might be able to trade Hughes, but until then, they need him to carry his strong second half into next season

Casey McGehee
Expected salary: $2.9 million
2012 salary: $2.5 million
A tiny raise is expected, but even without a raise, the Yankees might consider non-tendering McGehee. He was brought in specifically to hit left-handers while Alex Rodriguez was on the disabled list, but heading into the offseason, the Yankees really have no need for a right-handed corner infielder.

Brett Gardner
Expected salary: $2.8 million
2012 salary: $2.8 million
Want to miss out on a chance to make some money? Blow out your elbow in the first month, then miss almost an entire season heading into your second year of arbitration. Tough blow for Gardner, but going forward, the injury is going to save the Yankees some money. I tend to think Gardner will get at least a small raise, but nothing significant.

Boone Logan
Expected salary: $2.8 million
2012 salary: $1.9 million
Given a fourth year of arbitration, Logan reached career highs in innings, games and strikeouts-per-nine. The end result looks like a million-dollar raise if the Yankees want to keep him as their top left-handed reliever. Logan’s really solidified his standing in the bullpen, so it’s easy to expect him back.

Dave Robertson
Expected salary: $2.7 million
2012 salary: $1.6 million
Have to think Robertson would be in line to make even more if he hadn’t missed that month with an oblique injury, and especially if he’d stuck in the closers role after his brief audition. Regardless, $2.7 million remains a bargain for one of the top setup relievers in baseball.

Joba Chamberlain
Expected salary: $1.8 million
2012 salary: $1.67 million
Chamberlain used to be ahead of Robertson in salary, and in the bullpen pecking order, but that’s changed because of injuries and inconsistent results. Instead, Chamberlain remains relatively affordable. At some point, the Yankees might have to pick and choose from their young-but-experienced relievers, but for now, they can keep all of them.

Jayson Nix
Expected salary: $900,000
2012 salary: Minimum
Trade Rumors listed Nix among its non-tender candidates, but I’m not sure I agree. A less than a million dollars, Nix is still a cheap utility infielder who won over the Yankees with his steady play last season. Given the team’s uncertainty about Eduardo Nunez’s role, and the desire to have someone reliable behind Derek Jeter, my guess is that Nix will be back.

Associated Press photos

 
 

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72 Responses to “Arbitration decisions on an already uncertain roster”

  1. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 12:29 pm

    From what I’ve read Ryu is considered to be similar to Wii-Yen Chen (12-11, 4.02) of the Orioles but with 2-3 MPH more on his fastball.

    He’s no Kei Igawa, that’s for sure.

    He might be. Probably has a bit more skill than Igawa but its unknowable, and he pitches in a worse league than Igawa. Chen’s average fastball was 91 mph this year in the majors. Ryu averages 89 in the KBO. He may be able to top out in the 90s but its no guarantee he sits there.

    He seems like a guy you’d pick up for the back end of a rotation, and I don’t think the Yankees can spend money on that unfortunately.

  2. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 12:31 pm

    Wei Yin Chen tops out at 95 mph as well. Ryu Hyun Jin doesn’t have ’2-3′ more mph on his fastball.

  3. MTU October 30th, 2012 at 12:35 pm

    Disappear McGehee.

    Like yesterday.

    He’s goner than gone.

    ;)

  4. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 12:36 pm

    That being said, KBO players make jack squat & posting him could end up as a bargain if you get a starter for like 3 million a year or something. In that case they could post for Ryu, and deal one of Nova/Phelps/Hughes.

  5. blake October 30th, 2012 at 12:42 pm

    Non tender mcGehee …. They’ll need that money for Jonesy

  6. blake October 30th, 2012 at 12:44 pm

    I think Id tender Nix a contract….. He’s a good guy to have around….Id still try to upgrade from him though if possible

  7. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 12:50 pm

    I think Id tender Nix a contract….. He’s a good guy to have around….Id still try to upgrade from him though if possible

    I think guys who get tendered contracts then cut by the end of spring training only receive a small portion of the contract, so no harm in tendering him. They could also just string him out til arbitration.

  8. MTU October 30th, 2012 at 12:51 pm

    Blake-

    agree on Nix.

    How bout an OF of GGBG, Grandy, Gordon with Ichiro as the 4th OF’er ?

    Or Gordon, Grandy, Ichiro with GGBG as the 4th Of’er ?

  9. jacksquat October 30th, 2012 at 12:56 pm

    Gordon – Gardner – Melky

  10. blake October 30th, 2012 at 12:58 pm

    “How bout an OF of GGBG, Grandy, Gordon with Ichiro as the 4th OF’er ?

    Or Gordon, Grandy, Ichiro with GGBG as the 4th Of’er ?”

    Id be fine with either of those….bu if they did get Gordon Id really shop Granderson to try and recoup some of what I took to get him…..namely Id try to pry one of the braves pitchers away etc….

  11. blake October 30th, 2012 at 12:59 pm

    Melky has the potential to really be a steal for somebody…..

  12. MTU October 30th, 2012 at 1:13 pm

    Blake-

    He does but I just don’ think the Yankees are gonna go there.

    Same with Hamilton.

    Too risky.

  13. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 1:14 pm

    With the Yankees history of Giambi, Clemens, and A-Rod, they need Melky and the Roid PR like a hole-in-the-head. NIX

  14. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:15 pm

    Melky will cost 5 million or perhaps less…..and he’s 27….hardly the same level risk as Arod and Giambi

  15. MTU October 30th, 2012 at 1:18 pm

    Blake-

    I mean clubhouse and PR risk more than money on Melky.

    The money is insignificant. On that point he’s a steal.

    Don’t think that’s the decider in that case.

  16. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:20 pm

    MTU,

    They won’t sign him….I agree there

  17. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:20 pm

    @TBTimes_Rays: As expected, #Rays have told Shields his $10.25M option is being picked up http://t.co/wVBlOt7U

  18. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 1:21 pm

    for prospective, As and Rays exercise Rodney and Balfour’s options at a combine cost of 7 mil!

  19. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 1:25 pm

    ARod, Giambi, Clemens, Melky = Roids. Their product\salary mean Nothing.

  20. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:26 pm

    “ARod, Giambi, Clemens, Melky = Roids. Their product\salary mean Nothing.”

    Production and salary mean everything in real life baseball

  21. MTU October 30th, 2012 at 1:26 pm

    Guys like Romine and MM need to be brought along quickly and integrated into the Lineup by mid-season.

    Pineda should be ready by then too.

    I’m concerned about Jeter’s ability to bounce back quickly from his injury. In point of fact it might limit his range even further even if he makes a recovery on schedule.

    I guess if anyone can do it it’s derek. Just wouldn’t pencil him in for the start of the season.

    Nunez might be playing a significant amount of SS next season.

  22. MTU October 30th, 2012 at 1:31 pm

    I’ll see you all later.

    Gotta run.

    Keep the Hotstove fires burning.

    ;)

  23. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:32 pm

    @RiverAveBlues: Report: Kuroda “content” with signing another one-year deal http://t.co/uc6Hhxfv

    Then make it happen like yesterday

  24. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 1:35 pm

    @RiverAveBlues: Report: Kuroda “content” with signing another one-year deal http://t.co/uc6Hhxfv

    Then make it happen like yesterday

    =====================================

    Can probably command $15M, rather than $10M like last year. Still need to get it done though. He was a steal at $10M. Arguably there most valuable pitcher last season.

  25. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 1:37 pm

    PR=Revenue> Production\Salary

  26. austinmac October 30th, 2012 at 1:41 pm

    Someone tell Cashman it is a one year deal. Go sign Kuroda. NOW.

  27. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 1:41 pm

    Can probably command $15M, rather than $10M like last year. Still need to get it done though. He was a steal at $10M. Arguably there most valuable pitcher last season.

    I think he will either get the qual offer or another 10-11 million contract. He has made 11-10 mil the past 2 seasons and been very good for both. I don’t think he will suddenly jump up 5 million.

  28. Chip October 30th, 2012 at 1:42 pm

    blake October 30th, 2012 at 12:15 pm

    Gordon would indeed be a great fit….I don’t know if the Royals would deal well with the Yanks though and also don’t know if another club would offer more than the Yanks could
    —————————–

    Royals need pitching. Offer them Nova for Gordon

  29. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:43 pm

    “Can probably command $15M, rather than $10M like last year. Still need to get it done though. He was a steal at $10M. Arguably there most valuable pitcher last season.”

    I’m hoping they make the qualifying offer an he takes it

  30. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 1:43 pm

    Whatever happened with that bootleg failed drug test list, you guys were salivating over last week? Seems the media has ignored it.

  31. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    “Royals need pitching. Offer them Nova for Gordon”

    I love that deal because we’d get Gordon and get to keep Hughes…..but I think it’d take more

  32. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 1:46 pm

    You need to be logged into Facebook to see your friends' recent activity.
    Report: Yankees close to trading for Cliff Lee | The Lohud Yankees Blog
    2 people recommended this.

  33. Chip October 30th, 2012 at 1:46 pm

    Blake,

    Nova & Joba or d-Rob

  34. blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    “Nova & Joba or d-Rob”

    Id do Joba…. Tough to trade DRob right now

  35. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    I think he will either get the qual offer or another 10-11 million contract. He has made 11-10 mil the past 2 seasons and been very good for both. I don’t think he will suddenly jump up 5 million

    =================================

    Market for a guy who enjoyed the kind of season he did and is willing to work on a 1 year deal should be significant. Only way he doesn’t get a considerable raise is if he limits his market, which he may very well do.

  36. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm

    Royals need pitching. Offer them Nova for Gordon

    ==============================

    Then they’d still need pitching and wouldn’t have Gordon.

  37. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 1:50 pm

    Market for a guy who enjoyed the kind of season he did and is willing to work on a 1 year deal should be significant.

    But he has had that market the past 2 years?

  38. RayVT October 30th, 2012 at 1:53 pm

    The Yanks need to keep Nova, & especially not sell Low on him. He still has a high upside & almost every young pitcher goes thru the up & down year during their 1st few years.

  39. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 1:53 pm

    Just guessin’, but there previously was probably trepidation over an NL SP plunging into the AL East. Kuroda just answered that question.

  40. Chip October 30th, 2012 at 1:54 pm

    blake October 30th, 2012 at 1:49 pm

    “Nova & Joba or d-Rob”

    Id do Joba…. Tough to trade DRob right now
    ———————-

    can sign Soria or Madson plus have montgomery

  41. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 1:56 pm

    chip, Soria is on the Royals. you don’t think royals would rather sign him than trade away gordon for drob?

  42. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 1:57 pm

    But he has had that market the past 2 years?

    ===========================

    He has, but I think having succeeded in the AL East serves as a boost to his FA profile.

  43. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 1:58 pm

    He has, but I think having succeeded in the AL East serves as a boost to his FA profile.

    But is it really a boost if he is only willing to pitch in a handful of markets?

  44. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 2:01 pm

    anyway, back to reality, i believe Cashman will secure the services of our co captain russell martin then add few minor pieces here and there and call it a day.

    Russell shows the muscle!

  45. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 2:03 pm

    But is it really a boost if he is only willing to pitch in a handful of markets?

    ============================

    Which is what I meant by “….is if he limits his market”. Comes down to what those limitations are, I guess.

  46. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 2:06 pm

    My source in Riker’s island tweets that Cashman will be looking at Darryl strawberry for some additional hairyness this off season. Cashman is believed to say ‘ I love hairy beasts!’

  47. Jerkface October 30th, 2012 at 2:07 pm

    Which is what I meant by “….is if he limits his market”. Comes down to what those limitations are, I guess.

    The same as always I think. Dodgers, Another West Coast team, Hiroshima Carp, Yankees, or Boston maybe.

  48. Chip October 30th, 2012 at 2:10 pm

    Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 1:56 pm

    chip, Soria is on the Royals. you don’t think royals would rather sign him than trade away gordon for drob?
    —————————-

    Soria’s option is $8M. D-Rob (after arbitration) will cost less than 1/4 of that. Plus they get a good young starter in Nova.

  49. Chip October 30th, 2012 at 2:11 pm

    Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 2:01 pm

    anyway, back to reality, i believe Cashman will secure the services of our co captain russell martin then add few minor pieces here and there and call it a day.

    Russell shows the muscle!
    ——————–

    He won’t be able to sign Martin – after Napoli Martin is arguably the second best FA catcher on the market – demand for him will be high.

  50. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 2:12 pm

    chip, you smarter than that, you don’t think they would decline that option and renegotiate a reasonable deal with a life long royal? as for nova, good young starter is indeed at debate here.

  51. Chip October 30th, 2012 at 2:14 pm

    Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 2:12 pm

    chip, you smarter than that, you don’t think they would decline that option and renegotiate a reasonable deal with a life long royal? as for nova, good young starter is indeed at debate here.
    ——————————-

    I think the Royals understand that given their finances investing a lot of money in a closer isn’t a good idea for them at this point.

  52. NYY_Girl_Penny October 30th, 2012 at 2:15 pm

    jacksquat October 30th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
    Gordon – Gardner – Melky

    You seem to think we are the Mets. Glad your not the GM thats for sure.

  53. NYY_Girl_Penny October 30th, 2012 at 2:17 pm

    If the Yankees resign Russell Martin after he spurned them on the 3yr deal (THANK GOD!) and his minor league hitting ability I will not go to a single game next season. Bet on it!

  54. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 2:19 pm

    I think the Royals understand that given their finances investing a lot of money in a closer isn’t a good idea for them at this point

    ========================================

    Which is why they’ll probably be cool with paying Greg Holland $600K to close.

  55. Cashmoney October 30th, 2012 at 2:20 pm

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....ure=g-vrec

    Cashman would love this team.

  56. NYY_Girl_Penny October 30th, 2012 at 2:21 pm

    Jeter
    Ichiro
    Cano
    Braun/Hamilton/Big Bat
    Tex
    Arod
    Granderson/Gardner
    Ethier
    Napoli/Cervelli/Romine

    I can live with that but I still think they need more changes than just one or two bats in this dreadful FB only hitting lineup.

  57. Against All Odds October 30th, 2012 at 2:23 pm

    I will not go to a single game next season. Bet on it!

    ———————————

    You will have a lot of free time on your hands at night. He will more than likely be back.

  58. austinmac October 30th, 2012 at 2:26 pm

    I can’t see Kuroda going to Boston unless their offer was by far the best. Even then, I doubt it with the rebuilding they need to do. The California teams are always a possibility for him.

    Re-sign Kuroda and Pettitte. Sign Keppinger and trade for a good young bat. Sign Martin or another catcher to a short contract and I would be thrilled.

    What would Nova and Robertson bring?

  59. NYY_Girl_Penny October 30th, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    Against All Odds October 30th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
    I will not go to a single game next season. Bet on it!

    ———————————

    You will have a lot of free time on your hands at night. He will more than likely be back.
    —–

    not a threat or anything. I am already preparing not to the like the yankees next season. I’m not going to be suckered into paying a premium for a team that is unexciting and old and on budget. I’ve thought hard about this and its not being a fair weather fan. I don’t like the new owners way of doing things, I can’t stand the manager and think he’s an idiot and I only like a handful of guys on the team. It’s crazy because everyone in my family is diehard yankee fans and my decision hasn’t been easy, but unless they make some serious changes I’m done watching them another year when the last 2 seasons has been more blood boiling and frustrating then fun. I mean they are very very hard to root for these last few seasons with the decline and underperforming. It really stresses me out and baseball is supposed to be relaxing and enjoyable not disappointing and frustrating. It’s just how I feel.

  60. NYY_Girl_Penny October 30th, 2012 at 2:37 pm

    and Kevin Long has had plenty of chances to help this team. He’s turned average bats into thinking they are Barry Bonds. That alone is painful to watch daily.

  61. Against All Odds October 30th, 2012 at 2:39 pm

    I understand where you’re coming from.

  62. Against All Odds October 30th, 2012 at 2:40 pm

    I’m still trying to understand why they’re bringing Long back.

  63. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 2:44 pm

    Most of us were brought up Yankee fans, so rooting for the Team comes natural. Enjoying the games\players is an entirely different situation. The lack of walk-offs, and late inning comebacks also says something about the players. That guy with his nose buried inna binder inspires Nobody. His pressers before and after a game could easily be mistaken for a eulogy.

  64. AAA October 30th, 2012 at 2:46 pm

    The lack of walk-offs, and late inning comebacks also says something about the players

    =======================================

    One thing it says is that they didn’t fall behind much.

  65. Run it Out October 30th, 2012 at 2:47 pm

    Penny….
    You ARE the definition of a fair weather fan whether you like to think of yourself as that or not. The Yankees can not satisfy every fans desires no matter how hard they try. If you are not happy with a 95 win playoff team (consistently) then you are obviously free to move on. The Mets will have some great ticket deals next year and you won’t need to keep your October calendar open. I believe the Yankees will do everything that is financially possible to put another playoff team on the field next year. I won’t bother myself with ancient history but you sound like one of the many posters who were screaming for Damon or Matsui last spring and bad mouthing Ibanez. This is not George anymore but Yankee fans can still expect a good team year in and year out. So long!!

  66. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 2:52 pm

    Being Happy with a team is NOT directly related to their won\loss record. If you know The Game, you know Exactly what I am talking about. If not, you have my condolences.

  67. Run it Out October 30th, 2012 at 3:00 pm

    DONNY…
    Now you’re only going to be happy if they win the way you want them to win. OK then.

  68. austinmac October 30th, 2012 at 3:01 pm

    I do agree the lack of come from behind wins or lack of a good extra inning record does say something about the lack of timely hitting when the other team has one of it’s better relievers in. That is a predictor of post season offensive problems in my opinion.

  69. NYYROC October 30th, 2012 at 3:03 pm

    Baseball happiness is related to expectations. If your team exceeds expectations (A’s, O’s) most of those fans are happy with the season. If your team fails to meet expectations, whether it be in record, how far they go in playoffs, are they developing young players, or just the style of play, many fans can be frustrated. That is what happens to some NYY fans. Expectations for the NYy are always high, that stems from George.

  70. DONNYBROOK October 30th, 2012 at 3:05 pm

    - Run it out -
    My point is WINNING or W\L record has absolutely NOTHING to do with liking a team. Hell, I have liked players that could not hit their way out of a paper sack. It’s how you approach\ play the game as a player and or a team, that makes each likeable to me.

  71. Run it Out October 30th, 2012 at 3:30 pm

    DONNY…
    I hear ya. What I’m saying is I’m not “bailing” on this team and threatening to not attend games because they aren’t getting the type of player I would like to see on the field. Not hitting with RISP was incedibly frustrating and it bit them (and the Tigers) in the playoffs. I am a believer that the front office will build a team that gives them the best chance to win the WS.

  72. trisha - true pinstriped blue November 2nd, 2012 at 10:02 pm

    WORLD SERIES


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