Looking back: The ones who walked away
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Nov 12, 2012 
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Free agency can be a blessing and a curse. It can be much needed escape, or the troublesome loss. It can be regrettable, forgettable and occasionally memorable only with hindsight and second guessing.
This year, the Yankees lost a dozen big leaguers the day after the World Series ended. They lost another when Rafael Soriano opted out of his contract, another when Casey McGehee refused an outright assignment, and a handful more when minor league free agents hit the market. Their first attempt to retain some free agents — with qualifying offers — was rejected.
Free agents come and go each year, and although some are enticed back (the Yankees are hoping for Hiroki Kuroda among others) and some can’t leave fast enough (thanks for nothing, Pedro Feliciano), each free agent group looks a little different a year later. Here are some of the more noteable free agents who walked away from the Yankees last winter. How many would you want back, and which ones might be a cautionary tale for this winter?
C/DH Jorge Posada
The biggest name among the Yankees free agents last winter, Posada entered free agency knowing the Yankees had no spot for him on their 2012 roster. The only question was whether Posada would retire or come back with another team. He chose retirement, and the Yankees moved on with Russell Martin behind the plate and a rotating cast of veterans at designated hitter.
Want him back? I’m sure Posada is missed, but that’s not the same as wanting him back. He had a borderline Hall of Fame career — worth at least discussion if not induction — but the Yankees had little choice but to look elsewhere, and Posada was hardly heard from during his first year of retirement.
Others like him: The Yankees temporarily lost Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones to free agency last winter, but they wound up bringing both back with split results (Chavez was terrific, Jones was awful).
Comparable this year: If Andy Pettitte retires again, that would be comparable in terms of iconic significance, but in terms of a roster spot and current production, Posada is more like Raul Ibanez (on the bright side) or Jones (on the bad side). Either way it’s an aging player who the Yankees have to determine whether they have a spot for next season.
RHP Luis Ayala
The big surprise of the 2011 bullpen, Ayala made good on a minor league contract, won the last spot in the pen and cashed in with a two-year deal with the Orioles. In Baltimore, Ayala did it again, with numbers remarkably similar to 2011 (slightly higher ERA, but a lower walk rate and a nearly identical WHIP).
Want him back? Sure, but Ayala wasn’t really missed. His role was basically filled by David Phelps and the two-headed specialist of Clay Rapada and Cody Eppley.
Others like him: Guys like Raul Valdes, Sergio Mitre and Scott Proctor were much easier to let go last winter. Bartolo Colon also left with some success (and a steroid suspension).
Comparable this year: Rafael Soriano is too good to be an Ayala comparison. A guy like Derek Lowe might fit, if only because he was a marginal player for the Yankees, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could sign a relatively cheap contract elsewhere and have a good season in 2013.
RHP Andrew Brackman
The Yankees had seen enough of the former first-round pick, and they let him go after another walk-heavy minor league season. Brackman’s 2010 success in Double-A had been enough to revive his prospect status, but his 6.00 Triple-A ERA in 2011 was enough to send him packing. The Reds picked him up and witnessed further collapse. Brackman had a 6.71 minor league ERA this season, with most of his time spent in Class A.
Want him back? Not at all. Brackman’s a good guy who seemed to work hard, but the go-big gamble of that 2007 draft pick never worked out and Brackman’s prospect status has completely disappeared.
Others like him: Last winter was the year the Yankees finally cut ties with Kei Igawa. It also saw them release former Phillies first-rounder Greg Golson, reclamation project Mark Prior and there-and-back-again prospect Jeff Marquez. None has done anything to make the Yankees want them back.
Comparable this year: If the Yankees were to cut ties with Dellin Betances (which won’t happen) that would be comparable, though more extreme. It’s not often than a former elite prospect is so unceremoniously dismissed, especially not the winter after making his big league debut.
LHP Jose Quintana
A name that many people didn’t recognize when he hit the transactions list, Quintana became last winter’s most regrettable loss. The Yankees let him go after two minor league seasons in the States (he’d been originally signed and released by the Mets). His 2011 numbers were terrific, but they came all the way down in High-A. The White Sox grabbed him, and Quintana wound up pitched to a 3.76 ERA while making 25 big league starts. He faded significantly in the second half, but even so, there’s some promise in that left arm.
Want him back? Absolutely. Especially after the disappointing years from Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances, Quintana would be a nice piece of the system right now.
Others like him: When he hit the market, Quintana was just another name in a group of minor league free agents that included Doug Bernier, Steve Garrison, Wilkins Arias and Josh Schmidt. Every once in a while, one of these guys has a breakthrough, and that’s what happened when Quintana got a legitimate chance.
Comparable this year: A Class-A player who could become a viable big league starter next season? That’s a tough bit of speculation. I suppose Abe Almonte might have been a remote candidate, but the Yankees already re-signed him. Minor league free agents Kevin Russo and Mike O’Connor could be big league role players next year, but it’s hard to predict a Quintana-like impact from either of them. Instead, Chris Dickerson stands out as a guy the Yankees might regret losing if they decide to cut ties and free his 40-man spot this winter.
Associated Press photo
Chad is just mocking us now
Chad.. we need to discuss your new pic on Twitter… you look like Albie Manzo. I dunno if this is good or bad.. but I’m forever your girl! <3 Chad's Girls.
I think Chad is sitting there with his other reporter-type friends and is reading our comments and going …’wanna see them really bug out?? Watch this..’
They’re doing a little social experiment… we are the test subjects. And yes, these are tears in my eyes. You’ve won Chad! You’ve won.
Andrew Brackman, haha what a disaster
” You know when people from QUEENS are smarter than you, there is a problem.”
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louis armstrong, dale carnegie and nancy reagan disagree.
http://itsaboutthemoney.net/ar.....g-markets/
The only notable name on this list is really Quintana. The remarkable part is that a team would selection a guy from that low down in the system and give him a spot on the 25 man roster and he would stick the whole season. Not sure how to categorize it: 1) total luck, 2) great scouting by Chicago or 3) a total fumble by the Yankees system that did’t recognize what they had.
Ys Guy November 12th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
” You know when people from QUEENS are smarter than you, there is a problem.”
==============================================
louis armstrong, dale carnegie and nancy reagan disagree.
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Lol, I wish this were relevant.. I really do.
It doesn’t change the fact that if we measure ourselves against the Sox we aren’t going anywhere fast.
If we eat Arod’s contract just to move him.. we’ll have an FO that doesn’t do anything with their money because they’re still paying him to play somewhere else. At least now they’re complaining about a guy that will still contribute to our team… not ideal but somewhat more palatable than the alternative.
If you could trade Cano and A-Rod in a contract dump, where the other team takes all of A-Rod’s contract and gets a free year of Cano, would you do that trade?
I probably wouldn’t. It would free up a bunch of money, but then you’d have to sign guys to cover 2B or 3B. I’m not sure at the guys hitting FA in the near future, but there’s not a whole lot for this off season.
I’d prefer to trade Cano and get pieces back, if we’re trading Cano at all.
Chads next post will be about how good and cheap Austin Jackson is
the arod situation is going to become untenable. the booing and the constant focus on his decline and the booing will overwhelm the franchise until he’s gone, like it did this past PS.
you can make the argument that it’s not worth dumping his salary all you want, the situation at the stadium will dictate how this ends and it will end UGLY if he’s brought back.
Chad,
Posada is a HOFer without a doubt. He may not be a first ballot, but he belongs in there. I sure miss him, especially if you take in to account who replaced him.
Happy veterans day to all of you brave people.
Mac,
If you are still around, the Bond movie was excellent, probably the best one. Craig has grown on me.
“But do they also have as much money invested in CC, Tex, Granderson, Mo, Jeter, etc.
The problem is that this team has already sunk their cash in a handful of players.”
21 teams fielded rosters for under $100 million. I bet a bunch of them could have figured out a way to win if they could have added CC, Tex, Granderson, Mo and Jeter to their payroll and still stayed under $189 million.
My point is too much focus on just Alex’s contract. I don’t think one contract or player is the problem. It’s just the distraction from seeing that there is more than 1 problem. He’s the lightning rod to keep other players from taking their share of the blame and the lightning rod to keep ownership from being accountable for building an effective team.
RadioKev November 12th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
If you could trade Cano and A-Rod in a contract dump, where the other team takes all of A-Rod’s contract and gets a free year of Cano, would you do that trade?
I probably wouldn’t. It would free up a bunch of money, but then you’d have to sign guys to cover 2B or 3B. I’m not sure at the guys hitting FA in the near future, but there’s not a whole lot for this off season.
I’d prefer to trade Cano and get pieces back, if we’re trading Cano at all.
—
I would, but most fans don’t want to take the pain of a losing season. The Yankees may not be able to acquire enough replacements to win in 2013. There are limited good players at any time, and more of them are being locked up early. However, it would be a big boost in bang for buck to get rid of Arod’s contract. I’m not sure a prospect or two back for Cano could equal that savings. The Rangers did not even want to trade Profar for JUpton, for example.
Luis,
I’m glad you liked the movie. I like Craig as he is understated. I learned Bond is from Scotland like a knowledgable poster’s ancestry. Hint–he uses Mac in his name.:)
I agree most fans would need to be sold on rebuilding, but I think if they would explain this is for the long term, explain Boras and difficulty reaching a reasonable agreement with him, most would go along. It is far better than falling off the cliff with old guys.
JS,
Maybe the Rangers feel there is too much risk involved with Upton, while in the case of Cano is a proven commodity. That might make it different. Not saying that I want Cano traded, but if you can’t extend him for a reasonable amount of years, they may have to do so in order to get better value from him than a comp draft pick.
MTU,
I hope you read this, my option would be to find stop gaps and wait for the talent to pan out. Again, I believe that the core has to be homegrown. If we had a core in place, then yeah you could trade some prospects to get the missing pieces the team needs. The problem is that it is the core that it is missing.
Teams can field competitive rosters for under 100 million, but it requires long term planning, having a bunch of prospects come up and provide cost effectiveness, and the right mix of free agents+trades. Not many teams can come up with a playoff squad at a moments notice, its usually a few seasons in the making.
Unfortunately for the Yankees they are a few seasons in the decline.
Superscout Leuzinger leaves Pirates organization
http://triblive.com/home/29430.....z2BvFf12W6
Speaking of the Pirates, could we have McCutcheon if we asked very politely? Young, fast, athletic, can hit and has power. Sigh. Someday I hope to have one of those.
“Unfortunately for the Yankees they are a few seasons in the decline.”
You need some denial pipe
austinmac says:
November 12, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Speaking of the Pirates, could we have McCutcheon if we asked very politely? Young, fast, athletic, can hit and has power. Sigh. Someday I hope to have one of those.
He couldn’t handle NY I’m sure….
List of 2014 FAs (not totally up to date) http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ee-agents/
The best guy on there is David Wright, and he might be extended.
I hate the idea of salary dumping a contract with Cano.
blake November 12th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
“Unfortunately for the Yankees they are a few seasons in the decline.”
You need some denial pipe
———–
I guess not winning the World Series means “decline.” But last season they declined at a pretty good rate compared to the rest of the AL.
Likely they will just overpay Cano, and Cano-Tex-Arod will be the middle of the lineup for the next 2-3 years.
Luis-
I saw your response.
I’ll put you down as being firmly in the “A” camp.
P.S. I think I already knew that though.
Mac!! LMAO re: Scotland
It is a different Bond. More serious, no gadgets. But what a ride it was. Very ironic as well, the Q scene with just the gun was hilarious and when M says to Bond if he is going to eject her from the car as a recognition of the old Bond movies was very fitting as well.
I grew up with Moore as Bond, but this new Bond is more adult oriented. Again a very good movie.
I think the Dodgers might would take Arod if they could get Cano…..so come up with a deal there where the Yanks get enough back to do it…..it’s hard
I fail to see who replaces Cano/A-Rod/Tex in salary dump trades. We’re that high on Corban Joseph and David Adams?
If you trade Cano, trade him for prospects or players that can be our new foundation. The free agent market doesn’t appear to offer that.
MTU,
Kev,
Trader posted some stats from Tex. He is clearly declining. I would bet that the team as whole has decline about the same rate, with the exception of Cano and Jeter. But can we expect another good year from Jeter? Can we expect a reversal of the decline on those other players?
I think not… Which is sad
blake November 12th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
I think the Dodgers might would take Arod if they could get Cano…..so come up with a deal there where the Yanks get enough back to do it…..it’s hard
—
They would already be getting 70, 80 mil (over what he is worth) in savings by someone else taking Arod, you expect more on top of that? Probably about the best you could hope for is like Alex Castellanos, probably not even that.
Shame Spencer November 12th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Chad.. we need to discuss your new pic on Twitter… you look like Albie Manzo.
——————————-
At first I was thinking Marlboro Man but he doesn’t really do red wine now does he. I also thought of the Village People.
//
Here’s a few moves the Yanks could make to get them on the right track.
http://johnsterling.blogspot.c.....aidin.html
Even with Tex’s decline, which I personally don’t see as irreversible at this point, who replaces him? Who replaces him next year, and who replaces him the year after that?
And if moving a declining Teixeira takes moving a prime-Cano, and receiving no prospects for Cano, I think you’ve made an uncomfortable situation worse.
name the next # in this sequence…
1.06, .965, .933, .847, .823, .783 …
“They would already be getting 70, 80 mil (over what he is worth) in savings by someone else taking Arod, you expect more on top of that? Probably about the best you could hope for is like Alex Castellanos, probably not even that.”
I’m not trading my best player just to dump Arods contract…..I don’t think even the Dodgers would do that deal unless they could send a big contract back to offset some…..
Ethier , Gordon, and Zach Lee for Arod and Cano? Does that make the Yankees better…..more flexible….does that make sense for either club?
name the next # in this sequence…
1.06, .965, .933, .847, .823, .783 …
.815
What’s funny is that while we are racking out brains here Cashman is most likely trying to figure out how to get Jason Bay to DH next year
.815 would be very nice.
Jason Bay has been a travesty for all parties involved.
btw, not only do you not get anything back from arod’s contract plus cano, you have to take back v wells.
blake November 12th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
What’s funny is that while we are racking out brains here Cashman is most likely trying to figure out how to get Jason Bay to DH next year
—
He is probably torn between Bay, Jones and McGehee.
Sox shouldn’t have let him go, Mets shouldn’t have signed him, Mets shouldn’t have ended his contract. Good luck to whoever picks him up next.
Kev,
I am not advocating to trade Cano. But if the length of the contract he demands is beyond reasonable, I might be inclined to trade him first than getting a comp draft pick. That’s all I am saying.
About Tex… Y’s numbers suggest that this is no fluke… I wouldn’t bet on him getting to his prime numbers ever again… What I do think is that we are heading to a downward period… No payroll flexibility, too many aging vets on the roster and very few prospects ready for prime time in the minors… This is not a good combination for success… I rather bite the bullet now than later
Luis,
I liked the new Q and his comment about gadgets. Very fun movie.
@Buster_ESPN: At a time when catchers’ game of musical chairs is playing out, free agent Russell Martin is among those being considered by the Rangers.
i can’t see bay making a mlb roster next year. it would be nice but he’s had 1200 at bats to put it back together and has just kept getting worse.
With all this crazy talk about trading Cano, I came up with my way own crazy scenario for the Yanks offense
Sign Hamilton to a 5 year 110 million contract
Sign Hunter to a 2 year 22 million contract
Re-sign Martin on a 1 year 8 million contract
Trade Granderson
Acquire Headley
Lineup:
Jeter
Cano
Headley
Hamilton
Arod
Tex
Hunter
Martin
Gardner
Aint gonna happen but since we are talking crazy today just felt like throwing it out there
that was arod.
teix would be: .902, 1.08, 948, .846, .835, .807…
I bet the Tigers would give a lot for Cano….
Trade everyone for Buster Posey.
Bay would be perfect… He is a reclamation project from the scrap heap… Cashman’s forte
“teix would be: .902, 1.08, 948, .846, .835, .807…”
.805
jacksquat says:
November 12, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Trade everyone for Buster Posey.
I would
Since we are talking OPS… What is the replacement level production in OPS from 1st and 3rd base?
Kev – Your stance seems to be just stand pat and let the contracts run their course. That’s probably exactly what we’ll do which is why we’re all p*ssed.
Sorry to burst the bubble for some of you, there is no scenario where the Yanks trade Cano and get better.. If you deal him for prospects and they suck…then what? If you tied Arod/Tex contract to any trade, you still have to get match theirs and Cano production. Which means you need to sign free agents or make trades, what free agents/players available are out there that are better than Cano?
I understand the 189 million budget for 2014 and the need to sign Cano to a long term contract. But he is a top 10 player in the league, you build around him
i cant see the yankees getting under the LT threshold in 2014 with andy pettitte or mariano on the roster. right now that’s not a problem but as the season goes on that might become a subject of much speculation, especially if either one has a really good season.
Shame,
QFT
“Sorry to burst the bubble for some of you, there is no scenario where the Yanks trade Cano and get better..”
Unfortunately there is no scenario where they let him walk for a draft pick and they get better either…..
Luis,
I’m in favor of shopping Cano. No problem there. Just trading him in a salary dump is a lose-lose situation in my opinion.
Tex is trending down, and I’m not saying it’s bad luck. I can’t pretend to know all the reasons why he’s trending down (that lefty swing, certainly). However, I don’t believe it’s because he’s old. I think it’s likely to be mechanical or approach based problems, and those are fixable.
@Buster_ESPN: Rival executives say they don’t expect the Rangers to tender a contract to catcher Geovany Soto
Id rather sign Soto to back up Romine or vice versa than to give Martin 3 years
Ys Guy November 12th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
i cant see the yankees getting under the LT threshold in 2014 with andy pettitte or mariano on the roster. right now that’s not a problem but as the season goes on that might become a subject of much speculation, especially if either one has a really good season.
—————
The sick part is, as things stand now, they might end up really needing Pettitte again…..
“However, I don’t believe it’s because he’s old. I think it’s likely to be mechanical or approach based problems, and those are fixable.”
It’s at least somewhat age related…..his swing is such that even the slightest decrease in physical ability is going to be magnified …..
“Sorry to burst the bubble for some of you, there is no scenario where the Yanks trade Cano and get better..”
“Unfortunately there is no scenario where they let him walk for a draft pick and they get better either…..”
Thats why you have to resign him. Cashman might play it off but he has no option but to resign him unless the Yanks are willing to get worse.
Shame Spencer November 12th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Kev – Your stance seems to be just stand pat and let the contracts run their course. That’s probably exactly what we’ll do which is why we’re all p*ssed.
———
To some extent, Shame. I do buy into Cashman’s philosophy that making moves just for the sake of it is a really bad way to go. I’m not against getting rid of bad contracts, but if you do you need to have guys that can replace those bad contracts. I don’t see solutions in today’s, or next year’s free agent market.
If you can trade them for players, maybe then there’s something. I just don’t see Tex or A-Rod as bad enough to force out of the organization. They’re not. They’re just overpaid (which is still problematic).
Trading Cano could have its advantages. I’d definitely be shopping him to see what’s out there.
Jr1212,
If you read my posts… You would know that I think that we are in a pickle… You either stand pat and do nothing which will mean a longer period of irrelevance… Or you bite the bullet, get younger and you end up worse short term, but overall you get better in a shorter period of time… Or you take G Love’s sound strategy both for the present and the future, but it also means that you either trade Tex or negotiate an early retirement for Arod, otherwise they won’t be able to afford Cano. Still in this scenario, I would be hesitant to give more than 7 years ( including next season ).
I’ll tell you a little personal story… I have a Frisbee from a failed investment I made a while ago.. I keep it as a reminder of sticking to what works and stay away from those things that has gone bad… The Yankees should have Arod’s contract in a wall in their meeting room as a reminder of never to give a long term contract to a guy in his 30′s
Tex is timing.. and his bat won’t get faster as he gets older.
Also, this is the same guy that said he doesn’t bunt because it’s a desperate move… he’s been trending downward for years, so he’s had time to make adjustments. This is who he is and it won’t suddenly start trending in the other direction just because we want it to.
All of this nonsense comes back to our adherence to a budget. Having a declining 40/100 guy at 1B isn’t really a problem. It’s only a problem because they won’t do anything to make the rest of the team better because they’re paying him.
If you can trade them for players, maybe then there’s something. I just don’t see Tex or A-Rod as bad enough to force out of the organization. They’re not. They’re just overpaid (which is still problematic).
——————–
Kev – We largely agree.. the problem is that they are the ones making these deals problematic. They aren’t problematic if they would just eat their mistakes and upgrade where they could. But they won’t, they will complain about the fact that they can’t, and we will be stuck with the results.
Tex’s struggles are not fixable because he’s unwilling to fix them and admit he has a major problem from the left side of the plate.
From that side he’s barely Carlos Pena who you can get for around 6-7 million a season or less.
He plays 2/3′rds of the his at bats against RHP and is a major hole in this lineup and a drain on the payroll.
Fans cut him slack because he plays good D, but he is one of the biggest payroll drains on this team next to Arod.
He’s not getting fixed. He tried to go to the opposite field and gave up and went back to pulling everything he could get a portion of the bat on.
If he’s seriously our middle of the order threat going forward we’re in deep snit.
“Thats why you have to resign him. Cashman might play it off but he has no option but to resign him unless the Yanks are willing to get worse.”
Well you could argue signing him to a bad contract might make them worse in the future if they stick to this budget nonsense
Tex would be a asset if the payroll didn’t matter and they could hit him like 6th or 7th vs RHP….but as it is its kind of tough
luis,
I dont think there is any way the Yanks can get out of Arod or Tex contract. Tex has said in the past that there is a reason for a NTC being in his contract. And Arod will not be retiring leaving millions of dollars on his contract. I dont think Arod is a bad guy but he is all about the money, all the moves he has done in his career back that up.
Going to your frisbee point, it sucks to have to deal with the latter part of contracts but what other alternatives do the Yanks have. Thats the one downside of having a contender every year. The Yanks have to improve their player development but thats not goin to get it done by itself. Some might say look at the Rays, how many rings have the Rays won?
Lets say the Yanks do trade Cano and then the players you get in return suck or get hurt like Pineda did, then what? Some here dont let Montero go and he hasnt done 1/10 of what Cano has. Imagine the backlash then.
The Yanks and Cashman have areas to improve but they did win 95 games and some (im one of them) complain still. What happens if they win 85 games a couple of years in a row and miss the playoffs, what would we do then?
“Well you could argue signing him to a bad contract might make them worse in the future if they stick to this budget nonsense”
That is the thing that changes the game for the Yankees, the budget. All of sudden after handing out crazy contracts, they want to impose budgets…..smh
You can somewhat justify going too many years with Cano. Probably the first 5 years are good. The last 3 years (assuming 8 year contract) he will probably be overpaid, but by then Arod and Tex are gone. I would really try to do the 8 year contract this offseason though, not next.
“That is the thing that changes the game for the Yankees, the budget. All of sudden after handing out crazy contracts, they want to impose budgets…..smh”
Yup….it’s very difficult…ideally Id love them to just pay Cano and keep their best player….but as it is it may not be the best idea
jacksquat November 12th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
You can somewhat justify going too many years with Cano. Probably the first 5 years are good. The last 3 years (assuming 8 year contract) he will probably be overpaid, but by then Arod and Tex are gone. I would really try to do the 8 year contract this offseason though, not next.
———————-
The problem are the years where they’re ALL on the payroll…
I think Cano could start to decline fairly rapidly at 33 or 34…..he will be 31 when he signs his FA contract…..
If I had to guess…..Robbie will have 2 or. 3 more years where he’s an elite level overall player…..then 2 or 3 more where he’s above average for his position….then maybe 2 or 3 more where he’s clearly declining…..
.I guess on an 8 year contract you have to ask yourself if you are ok with paying 20+ million a year for 8 years when you may only get 2 or 3 of production at that level…..
@JimBowdenESPNxm: Detroit Tigers front runners for Torii Hunter according to source
jr1212,
What you say is true as well…But as Shame, Blake and others say…Then they have to keep on spending to cover those contracts…If not, it’s going to get ugly.
Kev,
I agree that I wouldn’t trade Cano in order to get out of Arod’s contract, even though it makes a lot of financial sense…I would rather negotiate an early retirement with Arod… But still, even though I think Cano will age well ( meaning that he probably is going to be good for a reasonble period of time ), I don’t think an 8 or 10 year contract makes any sense. It made sense when they extended him though. I think those 10 year contracts should be reserved for players like Jeter when they are in their mid or early 20′s. Because at the end of that contract the team has a much better bargaining position and the player has already achieved his financial security.
Shame Spencer November 12th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
jacksquat November 12th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
You can somewhat justify going too many years with Cano. Probably the first 5 years are good. The last 3 years (assuming 8 year contract) he will probably be overpaid, but by then Arod and Tex are gone. I would really try to do the 8 year contract this offseason though, not next.
———————-
The problem are the years where they’re ALL on the payroll…
—
Probably not going to happen. Tex has only 4 years left. I think Cano is likely very good for at least 4 more years, probably 5 more years, which covers the Arod years left.
JS,
That means 4 years of those three 20 something mil contracts all together, you should add CC to that bunch. This means 100 mil to five players. You still need to fill 20 more spots with less than 80 mil
Oops! four players close to 100 mil, with 80 mil to fill the rest of the roster.
luis November 12th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
JS,
That means 4 years of those three 20 something mil contracts all together, you should add CC to that bunch. This means 100 mil to five players. You still need to fill 20 more spots with less than 80 mil
—
Arod, Tex, CC, Cano… who is the 5th? Not Jeter.
jacksquat November 12th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Shame Spencer November 12th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
jacksquat November 12th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
You can somewhat justify going too many years with Cano. Probably the first 5 years are good. The last 3 years (assuming 8 year contract) he will probably be overpaid, but by then Arod and Tex are gone. I would really try to do the 8 year contract this offseason though, not next.
———————-
The problem are the years where they’re ALL on the payroll…
—
Probably not going to happen. Tex has only 4 years left. I think Cano is likely very good for at least 4 more years, probably 5 more years, which covers the Arod years left.
——————
You misunderstand me.. it absolutely will happen. Extending Cano now (which is probably the only way they get a decent AAV) means paying him, Arod, Tex, and CC all monster deals during the same years. Even if they wait to resign Cano until after 2013, they’re still going to have to pay him, Tex, Arod, and CC through 2016 at the earliest (I think after 2016 is when Tex finally falls off).
Arod, Tex, CC, Cano… who is the 5th? Not Jeter.
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If you give Cano 20 million AAV then that group + Jeter= 109.375, 102.875 if Jeter opts out
I know those 4 years are kind of tough, but my point was that you probably can’t get rid of Tex and Arod, and Cano probably doesn’t start being overpaid until after they are gone, which leaves you with one overpaid guy.
If you give Cano 20 million AAV then that group + Jeter= 109.375
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*Sigh*
@Buster_ESPN
If the Giants finish their deal with Jeremy Affeldt, it’s expected to be for about $18 million over three years.
Jerkface November 12th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Arod, Tex, CC, Cano… who is the 5th? Not Jeter.
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If you give Cano 20 million AAV then that group + Jeter= 109.375, 102.875 if Jeter opts out
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Right but that’s only 2 more years. I really doubt Jeter is playing past 2014. He’s great but time spares no man.
Right but that’s only 2 more years. I really doubt Jeter is playing past 2014. He’s great but time spares no man.
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They may have no choice. If he declines the 9.5 million for 2014 he will currently get they’d likely end up signing him to a multi year deal.
$18 million over 3 years for Affeldt?
Jerkface November 12th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Arod, Tex, CC, Cano… who is the 5th? Not Jeter.
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If you give Cano 20 million AAV then that group + Jeter= 109.375, 102.875 if Jeter opts out
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I think there is no way they do that, unless he is a lot cheaper and DH’s. If he is still a decent hitter and wants to DH his way to Rose’s record, I’d be fine with that, for less money.
jacksquat November 12th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
I know those 4 years are kind of tough, but my point was that you probably can’t get rid of Tex and Arod, and Cano probably doesn’t start being overpaid until after they are gone, which leaves you with one overpaid guy.
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Kind of tough? I would have to Ethan from MI. I don’t see how they build a competitive team with those contracts on the books and 20-21 more roster spots to fill. It becomes paramount to move Tex and Arod, otherwise you can’t afford Cano.
Couple of things heard on MLB radio:
Hunter is likely going to the Tigers
They believe the posting system is unfair since it doesn’t count toward the cap and it is an adantage for big market teams. Remember when NYC was a big city? I guess the market shrunk along with Hal’s . . .nevermind, I am a nice boy.
And 2014 is the most important year anyways. They can go over the luxury tax in 2015 and still get 100% of their revenue sharing rebate.
JF,
Since you are around…What’s the replacement level OPS production from 1st and 3rd base?
austinmac November 12th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Couple of things heard on MLB radio:
Hunter is likely going to the Tigers
They believe the posting system is unfair since it doesn’t count toward the cap and it is an adantage for big market teams. Remember when NYC was a big city? I guess the market shrunk along with Hal’s . . .nevermind, I am a nice boy.
================================
LMAO!!!
The bad news for the Yankees is that contracts are going up and not down. That further reduces the available players to Jonesy, I believe. Maybe they can sweet talk someone into coming out of retirement or take a few more TJS pitchers. Cashman has so many things to consider before springing into action before the start of spring training.
I don’t know, a replacement level player is one of the worst possible, because a replacement level player is simply one with the ability of the vast number of minor leaguers that can be freely gained via minor league free agency/trade/waiver/whatever.
A replacement level batter is 20 runs worse than league average over 700 PA so find the league average for 1b and 3b, see what equates to batting runs, subtract 20 and then see what that equals
Luis, they can afford 4 at 20+. They have to, your alternative – assuming that Arod and Tex cannot be traded – is Tex and Arod being your 3 and 4 hitters unless they can luck into a less expensive player hitting like a 3/4.
I have seen nothing nor heard nothing suggesting 2014 is the only year they intend to be under the cap. $189 or below will be, I predict, the future with this ownership group.
They wouldn’t spend in the last two off seasons(except to add a year to CC) or during the TDs for the last two years. Not spending involves far more than 2014. It is the new way they do business. They are really smart. they don’t need to spend. Just ask them.
I have seen nothing nor heard nothing suggesting 2014 is the only year they intend to be under the cap. $189 or below will be, I predict, the future with this ownership group.
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Yea I know, I’m just saying. They can go over the luxury tax for 1 year and still receive 100% of the rebates they are trying so hard to get. Doubt they will, but they can
JS,
I don’t think they can, if they want to stay below the 189 mil mark. Or it will be those four, some scrap heap players and some young players from the farm. Do you feel comfortable with Tex/Arod protecting Cano? I sure don’t. We are in a pickle.
I posted the other day that losing Kuroda, Swisher and Soriano is a lost of over 10 WAR. Martin is around a three. If they lose him and replace them with replacement level players(and that may be optimistic), they are now a .500 team. Plus, this team’s roster is filled with players on the decline rather than on the upside of their careers.
Don’t worry Yankee fans, Brian is going to try to find a cheap way to make them “competitive”. Are their any teams that don’t compete?
@BizballMaury
The Dodgers aren’t just locking up player talent, they’re going wild on the scouting side, as well. Details to follow…
@BizballMaury
Dodgers sign Pedro Avila, Gene Grimaldi, Patrick Guerrero, Pat Kelly, Jamey Storvick and Mike Tosar as international scouts…
@BizballMaury
The six Dodger scouts will serve under Bob Engle, who was hired by the Dodgers on November 1 as Vice-President of International
@BizballMaury
Dodgers also hire Josh Bard as special assistant, player personnel and professional scouts Willie Fraser and Scott Groot
@BizballMaury
Former Dodger third baseman Bill Mueller, who served as special assistant, player personnel, will become a full-time professional scout.
Dodgers
Cashman’s strategy is to let the market set the prices. He does that by seeing where all the good players go. The prices wouldn’t be right on any of the anyway. Further, they couldn’t handle NY.
Remember when we hoped the Yankees would spend on scouting and development. The Dodgers listened.
Make fun of their spending all you want. Let’s see what their record is for the next few years and compare to the non-spending Yankees.
Without Jeter, if they sign Cano to a 22 AAV deal: CC + Arod + Tex + Cano = 95.875mm per year for 4 players
Which means under 82.325 for the rest of the roster
Mac,
You are ruining my afternoon….Don’t write such dire comments please, they make too much sense
Luis, I think they could do 4 + a few medium salary guys + some cheap/young.
Thanks JF for the help. My point exactly re: 2:47 pm. You forgot to mention that half of those contracts are for declining players. Yikes!
I’m just concerned we’re backing ourselves into a corner…. if Jeter does put up similar production as he did last year (which may be a stretch given his injury but he’s surprised us all before and is the one guy I wouldn’t doubt), he could completely f*ck us for 2014.
I mean, maybe if the Yankees had a young SS that was a viable every day option in the system by the end of the 2013 season we’d have more leverage ……….. but, ya know…
JS,
I hope you are right….Because the way I see it, those medium salary guys are the ones making 10-12 mil per season.
?@darrenrovell
Wall Street Journal: Red Sox owner John Henry will stop managing $. Had $2.5 billion in assets in ’06, now down to $100M
So… at least that’s good news. Sox won’t be as big of players as I thought, this off season.
Random Noises:
- Yankees in agreement they need a middle of the order high impact bat but making that work will not be easy
- Trying to get creative by rearranging pieces to fit financial goals
- Yankees using Cano as leverage for salary dumping did not come from Cashman (Not happening)
- Cashman is happy overall with last years team while others are promoting major changes
- Front office divided over many issues, particularly moving Curtis Granderson and going after Hamilton.
- Yankees Levine contacted Melvin regarding Braun and was told a definitive “Not interested”.
- Was told by a certain pitcher that he’d like to see what the team looks like before he decides
- Swisher love NY would’ve given a hometown discount if he felt the fans wanted him back.
- “Our financial goals come first, but we need to give the fans something to be excited over”. Hal emphasized how important it is to do both”
- Most would like to see Ichiro back, but would like team to take shape before committing.
I’ll leave off with something a baseball exec told me the other day, “Do you know how many times I’ve been told ‘no way, not a chance in hell’ and then called back a few weeks later and asked if the deal was still on the table? Personally, I expect a to be told no at least three times before that same ‘no’ magically turns to a yes. Owners [baseball team] can be a very fickle bunch”
- Swisher love NY would’ve given a hometown discount if he felt the fans wanted him back.
———————
Ahahahahahahahahaha… first we single-handedly didn’t motivate this group enough during the playoffs and now we’re solely responsible for Swisher’s departure!
Oh man… I was going to have us do creative writing today but forgot all about it. Glad we got back to it, late in the afternoon.
In order to fill the 189 mm requirement:
Gardner CF – 3 mm AAV (arbitration)
Jeter DH – buyout + negotiated contract (3/27) – AAV = 12.5 mm
Cano 2B – 20 mm AAV
Tex 1B – 23.125 AAV
ARod – 27.5 mm AAV
Gary Sanchez C – 1 mm AAV
Tyler Austin RF – 500K AAV
Mason Williams LF – 500K AAV
Nunez SS – 5 mm AAV (arbitration)
Romine – 2 mm AAV
Nix – 3 mm AAV
Melky Mesa – 500K AAV
2 basement bargins for 3mm each
CC – 19mm
Nova – 5 mm (arbitration)
Hughes – 5 mm (arbitration)
Pineda – 3 mm (arbitration)
Someone – 3 mm
Closer – DRob 5 mm
5 players at an average of 4 mm
This + 5mm for the other 40 man roster would put them at approximately 143 mm
and a great minor league team, but not a playoff team.
This leaves 45 mm to upgrade certain positions.
I did this real quick an d tried to consider raises due to arbitartion but I am sure I left something off.
Either way, the current situation look bleak, even if we keep Cano.
We are going to rely heavily on the kids in AA.
Wow, it’s been a while…
Nice to catch you all!
Yankees will re-sign Cano. He’s the best 2B in the game, and our only hope with a stick. He’ll be good the first 4 years or so, then he’ll decline (isn’t that the way with all the elite FA contracts?) . Most of the overpaid players will be gone by then. Meanwhile, we’ll stand pat (1-2 mm stopgaps) and semi-contend in 2013, then will be aweful in 2014 and 2015 (with more 1-2 mm stopgaps + decline at its best), when hopefully “the new core” will begin to arrive, and 189 can say: “mission complete”
We should also add that we’re impatient and that’s why the org can’t call up any of the farm kids to the list, no?
Yes, let’s go ahead and add that.
@Buster_ESPN
Before the Chris Young deal, Oakland had extensive talks on a two-year deal with Jonny Gomes. Orioles could be a fit for him now.
For a number of years the Dodger brand has suffered with poor ownership and leadership. During those years, the Angels have taken a lot of their fan base. That is how the Mets became the most popular team in NY in the past.
The new ownership of the Dodgers are determined to take back the City and reap the benefits of the most popular team and a winning team in a major market. That is how George rebuilt the Yankee brand.
Many of the younger fans probably expect winning every year since that has been their experience. I thought that too in the early 60s. It was inconceivable the Yankees would become a doormat. They did.
Winning and profit are far from guaranteed. The team has to earn it. It is lucky for them that the Mets are run as badly as they are. The former big market Met team is now having to rid themselves of contracts. Sound familiar?
In a few years the Yankees have gone from a team that took advantage of big contracts and obtained players others couldn’t afford. Now, they lose their players for contractual reasons and can’t replace them with equal players.
It is amazing to me to see the direction of the team. For the saving of some luxury tax money, they risk far more.
- “Our financial goals come first, but we need to give the fans something to be excited over”. Hal emphasized how important it is to do both”
Sounds like a recipe to sign more Sorianos
I did this real quick an d tried to consider raises due to arbitartion but I am sure I left something off.
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None of this adds up or makes sense sorry you spent your time doing this
@JimBowdenESPNxm
Congrats to O’s LHP Wei-Yin Chen and his wife, Yi-Wen on the birth of their first son Karsten
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Karsten Charles Chen?
BA has a write up about Otani in their new issue…..they describe him as more of a late first round pick than a top 5 guy……actually put him in the Ty Hensley category as a prospect
If you can get Hamilton for 5 years then sign him and trade Granderson….then let Cano walk after 2013 if he demands 8 years and 200 million.
The Yankees financial goals come first. Yes, they sure do.
Remember when ownership felt an obligation to the fans? Now, a guy who inherits the team, says his finances come first.
Anyone optimistic, please send me some of what you are taking.
Lost,
That pitcher must be Pettitte.
Cashman is blind if he thinks he is ok. which reinforces my positionthat he is not the man for the job.
Levine better stay away from baseball decisions.
Swisher…Nice to have met you…glad you are gone
They should go after Hamilton and trade Granderson
They should invest in player development and scouting like the Dodgers are doing.
jmv,
Go and see the Flores kid…he is good…fair assessment by the way. Got to go, later guys
Can’t blame Andy for wanting to see if the team is a title contender before signing on…..
Blake,
I love you man, but bringing up another player who the Yankees will ignore is painful. They have not, as far as I can tell, been remotely in on anyone popular player.
Luis, have a good one.
I’m just trying to stick with Chads theme of pain
They’ll sign Soria to excite the fans
So, how can things get even better? Kuroda goes elsewhere, Pettitte decides he doesn’t like what he sees and retires, and Martin goes elsewhere leaving Cervelli and Stewart to handle the position.
I expect all three of these things to happen in the next three weeks.
But, Cashman and Hal will still like the team. By then, many of the other options will have been traded or signed elsewhere.
I could name ten of our bloggers I would prefer to handle personnel decisons that the ones getting paid large sums to do so.
@darrenrovell: Wall Street Journal: Red Sox owner John Henry will stop managing $. Had $2.5 billion in assets in ’06, now down to $100M
“But, Cashman and Hal will still like the team. By then, many of the other options will have been traded or signed elsewhere.”
Hey man….we won 95 games and stuff
Guys, you’re looking at this all wrong… obviously, the fans just don’t support this team enough to make it great. It isn’t Hal or Cash or anyone on the teams fault.. it’s ours for not being fan-ly enough!!
@BNightengale: Mike Napoli, the Texas #Rangers free-agent catcher, is drawing interest from the New York #Yankees
Lol yea right
@fangraphs: RotoGraphs: Jesus Montero Needs To Solve His Righty Problem http://t.co/Slx0LZ5c