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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Why this year feels different

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 11, 2012 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Every once in a while, I like to dig into the LoHud archives for some perspective. Every winter seems to move more slowly than the last, and it’s good to look back to find the truth of the matter. Is it really unusual to spend the 11th of December waiting for news on a pair of veterans? Is it odd that there are significant holes in the roster? Should it be alarming that other teams seems far more active than the Yankees at this point?

The blog headline exactly one year ago today:

Looking back at a busy week (for teams other than the Yankees)

Guess some things never change. A year ago today, the Yankees were coming out of the Winter Meetings having apparently accomplished nothing. They’d made two Rule 5 selections (pitchers who never got in a game for the Yankees) and won the rights to a Japanese shortstop (who ultimately never signed), but that was it. More than a month later we discovered the Yankees had also laid the groundwork for the Montero/Pineda trade during those Winter Meetings.

Interestingly, three years (and one day) ago, our old friend Sam Borden wrote this: Patience is a virtue (except when it isn’t). His point was that a general manager — or anyone, really — has to be willing to wait, but only if he’s also willing to strike when the time is right. Have to wonder, though, just how much striking can the Yankees do at this point?

That question seems to be the biggest difference between this year and others in recent memory.

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145 Responses to “Why this year feels different”

  1. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 9:08 am

    “The thrill is gone.”

    BB King’ed.

    :(

  2. blake December 11th, 2012 at 9:08 am

    Last year they had a couple of holes in the rotation though…..

    This year they have a hole at 3B, Catcher, RF, and DH…..

  3. CountryClub December 11th, 2012 at 9:12 am

    “We have been saying the same thing for 10 years — ‘They are too old, this is the year they fall apart’ — and every year they win 90-something games and make the playoffs,” said an AL executive. “I am tired of this story. Would I want their rotation in 2015? No. But we are not playing the 2015 season next year. Their rotation is going to be very good in 2013. And I bet they figure a way to get to 800 or so runs again. You know what I just described? A playoff team.”

    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports.....JOI1gTNlZK

  4. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 9:12 am

    Chad has the 64,000 question.

    Can, or will, the Yankees still bust a move ?

    I’m waiting, watching, and hoping.

    But now it is time to walk the pupperazzi.

    Later.

  5. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 9:15 am

    Bust what move? It seems the plan is Youk 3B, Ichiro RF, Ibanez DH, pick up a righthanded OF, and maybe they’ll improve C.

  6. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 9:15 am

    Yankees are in transition.

    Just exactly how competetive they are remains to be seen.

    The AL East has not been standing still but the Yankees kind of have.

  7. CountryClub December 11th, 2012 at 9:16 am

    Look, I think the Yankees should have re-signed Russell Martin and used their monetary might to win for versatile lefty killer Jeff Keppinger. But if they end up with Suzuki, Kevin Youkilis, Scott Hairston and Raul Ibanez, then they should still have lefty-righty diversity, probably a deep offense and no further clogging of their long-term financial arteries. It is one thing to scream the Yankees should spend, but if in this market they are not anteing up for Josh Hamilton — who may not want to leave Texas anyway — then who should they be spending on?

    The Yankees might be facing their ruin next season. But haven’t we heard that a lot in recent years?

    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports.....JOI1gTNlZK

  8. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 9:17 am

    Jacksquat-

    That’s what they pay Cashman the big bucks to figure out.

    Unfortunately, I think the odds are you’re right and they just trying to maintain rather than actually trying to improve.

  9. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:19 am

    CC–
    From that same NY Post, Joel Sherman, article that I posted earlier this morning:

    “And it is not difficult to see 2013 as their Waterloo, since they are facing more roster volatility than any time in at least the last decade. There is the age of Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. The return from surgery for Rivera, Jeter, A-Rod and CC Sabathia. The uncertainty behind the plate, in right field and on the left side of the infield, all of which threatens their offensive output.”

  10. blake December 11th, 2012 at 9:20 am

    I have always been one to agree that they’ll make the playoffs or find a way to…..

    But I don’t think they are a playoff team right now….. They have too many holes and the other teams are too willing to compete now…..

    Everybody has enough cash to improve their club now…..I said this after the season ended and I still believe it that if the Yanks don’t address their offense this winter then I think they miss the postseason

  11. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 9:20 am

    Sorry. really got to go.

    Dawgs are nipping my heels.

    BIAW.

  12. chicken little December 11th, 2012 at 9:22 am

    Hate to say this but for the long term future, it may be good if the Yanks stink this year. I think Hal and friends think if they just continue to plug holes with one year contracts the team still will make the playoffs. Just like in 2008 when they thought a rotation on the cheap with 3 rookies would work …

  13. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 9:22 am

    I’m guessing they want as clean a slate as possible for 2014 because they don’t know if they’ll be spending a ton on Cano, don’t know if Jeter will be back or what kind of deal he might get, don’t know if Pineda can be a #2 or they will have to find one, don’t know what Arod’s health will be like, and don’t know yet if they’ll have useful players in the minors ready to come up.

  14. blake December 11th, 2012 at 9:23 am

    Folks have been saying the Yanks were ok old for years yes…..but they always spent money to fight off the age and get what they needed to maintain…..they always filled holes.

    They have 4 big holes right now…..and what Hashman does to address them between now and march will likely determine their 2013 fate

  15. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:25 am

    Blake-

    What teams are still looking for a centerfielder that would be willing to take all of Granderson’s salary for one year of service, knowing that, other than the 43 homeruns, he declined in all other areas of his game?

    Don’t include the Braves, who would move him to left, but would have the core of their production, other than Upton, all left handed-Heyward, Freeman, McCann.

  16. CountryClub December 11th, 2012 at 9:25 am

    But I don’t think they are a playoff team right now….. They have too many holes and the other teams are too willing to compete now…..

    ————–

    This is probably correct (although I think their rotation and pen would keep them in the hunt with the team they currently have). But the season doesn’t start on Jan 1st. They’ll fill the holes. Half the fans probably wont like who they sign/trade for, but the holes will be filled regardless.

  17. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:29 am

    Other than the Jays and Royals, I can’t think of any other AL teams that have improved so far.

    Most teams that made improvements are in the NL

  18. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 9:30 am

    The team hasn’t had this many holes in a long time. They are trying to patch the holes with worn out players. They have lost 40+% of their homers and probably a similar number of runs and other stats. They are not being replaced.

    Before I hear the over reliance on homer argument, let me say I agree if they were replacing them with better bats. They are not.

    Chad seems to be one of the few that sees Ichiro for what he is now. Youkilis, if we are so lucky to get this wonderful human, hit .235. Stewart will be lucky to hit .200 if he plays much. Romine hit .220 in the AFL, and not much better during the year.

    Who are we kidding here?

  19. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 9:30 am

    Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:19 am

    CC–
    From that same NY Post, Joel Sherman, article that I posted earlier this morning:

    “And it is not difficult to see 2013 as their Waterloo, since they are facing more roster volatility than any time in at least the last decade. There is the age of Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. The return from surgery for Rivera, Jeter, A-Rod and CC Sabathia. The uncertainty behind the plate, in right field and on the left side of the infield, all of which threatens their offensive output.”

    ————-

    Man, who needs Prozac when you have Sherman to cheer you up!

  20. ron December 11th, 2012 at 9:33 am

    With mlb trying to make every team equal,i’m more concerned about mlb tapping into teams revenues.
    31 % is what teams have to put in from their revenues,so if the yankees make 400 million in revenues,they have to put in 120 million,in addition to the lt,minus any tax breaks from their new stadium,etc…

    That is a lot of cash,so going under the 189 for 2014-2016 will give them a lot more money back than people realize.
    The yankees pay,or will pay well over 100 million in revenue sharing,a year,plus a lt,so this is their chance to recuperate 40-60 million a year.

    “Unfortunately, the new CBA has not yet been released to the public. As a result, it’s impossible to accurately analyze the impact of the new revenue sharing rules. What we do know is if the Yankees’ implied expectation of a $40 million rebate is accurate, it will come at the expense of several large market teams, who would be forced to forfeit their cut of the pie when the new provision takes effect in 2016, according to the official summary available on MLB.com”.

    A 40 million rebate,plus no lt,a year is a lot of cash to anyone.

  21. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 9:33 am

    YT,

    Can you think of another team that lost four starting players in their lineup? We are talking about significant regression. This is not last year’s team who were flawed, but were far superior to the group we have now.

    Even Cashman says this isn’t a playoff team. Adding Ichiro and Youkilis will make it one?

    Other than Gardner, I do not see one player on the team who can be expected to improve upon last year. Some may be worse.

  22. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 9:36 am

    I’m still trying to figure out why we keep being told not to worry since the Yankees won 95 games last year yet no one is all that concerned that the Orioles won 93 games last year lol…

    According to most of us, the Orioles won’t repeat because they weren’t a very good team last year and they over achieved… but the Yankees will repeat that production because they’re the Yankees.

  23. Cashmoney December 11th, 2012 at 9:36 am

    not making the playoff this year could actually benefit the Yankees down the road if they stick to their budget. It would make easier for the team to decide it’s time to rebuild , time to say goodbye to the core 4 or whomever that are left. If the Yankees struggle mightily under the worst case scenario, it would also open up trade possibilities with some of the more desirable one year pieces they have. If NYY want to maintain profitability while patchworking their way to a playoff spot with no realistic chance of being a championship caliber team then not making the playoff would perhaps changed their train of thoughts. With 189 staring at the face, not making the playoff next 2-3 might be beneficial to the Yankees in the long term.

  24. yankee21 December 11th, 2012 at 9:37 am

    Go 189 that is the new mantra. Hal and cash want fans to accept this self-imposed mandate in order for them to have cover for not investing in the product (team).

    I will never accept.anything from Yankee ownership than the pursuit of excellence on the field. I don’t give a damn about their tax savings. That is their goal not mine as a fan.

  25. blake December 11th, 2012 at 9:37 am

    “Don’t include the Braves, who would move him to left, but would have the core of their production, other than Upton, all left handed-Heyward, Freeman, McCann.”

    The Braves….they have Uggla, Simmons, and Prado as RH bats and also Reed Johnson……it’s really a perfect match……also think Texas may need an outfielder if we sign Hamilton…..or I think the dbacks could have interest of they dealt Upton…..

    I think they could move him…..the question is what they could get back.

    A Grandy for Delgado deal makes sense to me….

  26. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 9:38 am

    They aren’t going to lose 40% of their homeruns. The homeruns will probably be down, but not that much (unless there are lots of injuries, which is possible). Youk would hit some, Ichiro would hit some, Ibanez would hit some, whoever the catchers are will hit some, etc.

    And I don’t believe they are not going to improve the catcher situation. Cervelli/Stewart/Romine will be no more than secondary catchers. I think they will at least pick up Olivo, Shoppach, etc.

  27. Locke December 11th, 2012 at 9:39 am

    If this team can get to the playoffs, which I think it will, it will compete for the WS.

    We may be overpaying some of our aging players, but we have a great rotation, a really good bullpen, and a good lineup. There is a solid chance that this lineup is a downgrade from last years, but last year we were still:

    2nd in runs scored
    8th in BA
    2nd in on base
    1st in slugging

    The only thing that stopped us from going to the WS last year was a massive, team-wide, slump.

    I’d rather root for this Yankees team than for the Dodgers, Angles, Rangers, Giants, or any other team in baseball.

  28. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:40 am

    The Yankees already have nearly 171M committed, per Cots, to 11 players and Pirate AJ Burnett.

    LT this season is now 42.5% for every dollar over 178M.

    Look at the payroll and it’s possible that the Yankees 2013 40 man opening day payroll will be more than it was in 2012.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

  29. Cashmoney December 11th, 2012 at 9:43 am

    Here are some stark realities the Yankees are facing in the immediate future. An aging core with overpaid veterans. A minor league system that have talents that’s probably 2 year away. a budget in 14, maybe in 15 (remain to be seen), a smarter competition league wide with more money at their disposal to keep pieces Yankees used to able to acquire with impunity. There are few more .. but you get the drift.

  30. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 9:44 am

    Ibanez is not yet back. Swisher’s numbers will in esence be replaced by Gardner. Martin’s homers willbe replaced by Stewart? Can he hit one out?

    They have 102 homers not on the team. Yes, some will be replaced but thye will fall far short without any increase in BA. That means less runs, particularly on a team that scored half its runs via the homer.

  31. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:45 am

    Shame-

    I think the Orioles can repeat their performance. They use the shift, 2nd only to the Rays, in frequency. They have two exciting young rookies in Machado and Bundy. They have Showalter.

    If they were to land Hamilton, look out.

  32. 98NYY December 11th, 2012 at 9:47 am

    “Can you think of any other team losing four starters?”MMiami. This year we will see the farm unlike last year.

  33. Cashmoney December 11th, 2012 at 9:48 am

    I will be rooting for the Yanks not making the playoff this year!

  34. Tyler December 11th, 2012 at 9:48 am

    The Orioles definitely had an element of luck last year but I think they’ll be strong for a while now. They’ll get Markakis back and Machado/Bundy are going to be really good. Losing Reynolds might hurt a little but I really don’t think he’s that good anyway.

  35. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:49 am

    Cash-

    That sums it up as concisely as you put it.

  36. yankee21 December 11th, 2012 at 9:49 am

    Cash money- from what u have observed with the Yankees mgt team, r u confident these stark realities will be addressed in an effective manner?

  37. AAA December 11th, 2012 at 9:54 am

    The Orioles definitely had an element of luck last year but I think they’ll be strong for a while now.

    ====================================

    What they had mostly was a ridiculously efficient bullpen that never (literally, never….til the playoffs) lost late leads. That was the real difference for them. They did nothing else especially well, but the pen was outstanding. Might be hard to match that again this year, but they stand to get better in other areas in which they were little more than average.

  38. Cashmoney December 11th, 2012 at 9:59 am

    Yank21, I am not confident. I like to see Cashman gone not because he is horrible but I think they are betters out there. Being the premiere franchise in the world ought warrant the best management. But I think the real problems are the ones i mentioned above. I don’t think it’s any sin to operate under 189 if they run it smartly. I just think Yanks could use 1-3 years to replenish and to assess what they have. Before 95 and consequently 96, the young core was given time to learn to win and hone their skills.

  39. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 9:59 am

    Yes, Miami did lose a similar amount of starters. How is there fan base feeling about the upcoming season?

    The O’s have young pitching, a dynamic, young third baseman and the best bullpen around. I think they will be tough again.

    I have little real knowledge, I admit, but I would prefer to try Adams at third than Romine or the rest at starting catcher. I think Adams might hit. The catching corp, probably not.

    I hope we see the farm this year rather than the geriatric team they are amassing.

  40. Cashmoney December 11th, 2012 at 10:01 am

    The notion of you can’t rebuild in NY is silly to me. because if you don’t at certain critical juncture of a franchise, you are not winning championship and not consequently won’t be drawing interests with aging veterans anyway. I have fell asleep many times last year watching this team. It’s just not that compelling of a story to me.

  41. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:01 am

    Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 9:45 am

    Shame-

    I think the Orioles can repeat their performance. They use the shift, 2nd only to the Rays, in frequency. They have two exciting young rookies in Machado and Bundy. They have Showalter.

    If they were to land Hamilton, look out.

    —————-

    Machado is such an exciting player… I hated watching him last year. Hated it.

    I just find it interesting, the way we’re rationalizing things.. with the way our line up is currently constructed, is it that much of a reach that we’re 3 wins worse than last year?

  42. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:02 am

    The O’s have young pitching, a dynamic, young third baseman and the best bullpen around. I think they will be tough again.

    ————

    Don’t forget Buck. Buck is a factor.

  43. Yankee Trader December 11th, 2012 at 10:05 am

    AAA-

    Good point on the Orioles bullpen. I’m concerned that the Yankees bullpen, which wasn’t so lockdown the 2nd half of this past season, has some issues. An older closer returning from an ACL. Their most reliable lefty who can get righties out, Logan, being overused. Joba who allowed 50% of inherited runners to score. Aardsma recovering from TJ. Eppley and Rapada.

    Should I be concerned? Will the starters go deep in games to minimize exposure of the bullpen?

  44. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 10:06 am

    Well, you guys can sit around and try to paint as dire a picture as possible if you want. I’m more a realist. The team has problems for sure but I’m not interested in only seeing the exaggerated negatives.

  45. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:07 am

    “I just find it interesting, the way we’re rationalizing things.. with the way our line up is currently constructed, is it that much of a reach that we’re 3 wins worse than last year?”

    Considering Swisher was a 4 win player last year…..not at all

  46. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:09 am

    Unless they replace Swisher with somebody as good or better then the offense will be worse for if….Swisher can’t hit in the playoffs but he wasnonenof the more consistent reasons why thy actually got there while he was in NY….

    Now Gardner can be a 3 or 4 WAR player when healthy….but he’s gotta stay healthy Nd they also have to replace Arods production and martins and the fact that its unlikely Jeter will hit .320 again….

    They need offense

  47. The Return of Stoneburner December 11th, 2012 at 10:13 am

    I have always been one to agree that they’ll make the playoffs or find a way to…..

    But I don’t think they are a playoff team right now….. They have too many holes and the other teams are too willing to compete now…..

    Everybody has enough cash to improve their club now…..I said this after the season ended and I still believe it that if the Yanks don’t address their offense this winter then I think they miss the postseason

    *****

    And that is what you call hedging your bets

    http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Wher....._come_from

  48. DONNYBROOK December 11th, 2012 at 10:14 am

    Swisher cost the Yankees their Biggest game of the season last year. NOW, just where does that factor into your WAR Nonsense. Thought so.

  49. Tyler December 11th, 2012 at 10:14 am

    AAA December 11th, 2012 at 9:54 am
    The Orioles definitely had an element of luck last year but I think they’ll be strong for a while now.

    ====================================

    What they had mostly was a ridiculously efficient bullpen that never (literally, never….til the playoffs) lost late leads. That was the real difference for them. They did nothing else especially well, but the pen was outstanding. Might be hard to match that again this year, but they stand to get better in other areas in which they were little more than average.
    ————————————————————————–

    Their ‘pen was definitely ridiculous during the regular season last year. Didn’t they win something like 15 extra inning games? Just can’t see them replicating those numbers but the rest of the team will likely get better so it will probably even out, leaving them still a good team.

  50. AAA December 11th, 2012 at 10:15 am

    YT:

    Don’t know. Yankees finished 2nd to Seattle (by 1 inning) in total innings from starting pitchers and required fewer innings from their bullpen than anyone in the AL.

    Can they repeat that? Hard to say. Couple geriatrics in the rotation and Sabathia off an injury. I think they’ll be effective, but not necessarily great. As for the pen, I kinda trust Rivera to be something close to what we’ve been accustomed too and Chamberlain to improve. I think overall it’ll be a good staff again ’13.

  51. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:15 am

    Sounds like some are missing the long ball they criticized last season.
    Already there are moans for missing all or nothing Swisher.
    Martin and Arod are also being lamented.
    With Ichiro and Gardner we will be getting the situational hitting pined for last season.
    Let it breathe a little…

  52. ron December 11th, 2012 at 10:16 am

    130 million a year in rs,and lt is a lot of money,so if you can get back more than 40 % of that,why not?

    Some people think the yankees just pay a lt.
    What they don’t realize is,the yankees pay over 100 million a year in rs,in wich they can get a hefty rebate.
    If their payroll,and lt,rs payments were covered 100 % by their tv revenues alone,then i’d say,who cares about payroll,but they,as of now get 85 million a year from their tv deal,and dump 31% of their revenues into rs,so their tv deal,now doesn’t even cover their lost revenues from rs.
    There is still their payroll,and lt.

    If they were getting 300 million a year like the dodgers,that covers a 300 million payroll,or close to it,and any lt hit,so all they are paying is a 31 % hit on shared revenues in wich they get exemptions,so in reality,it is less than that.
    In time the yankees yes deal will pay them a lot more than 85 million a year,but the rules might change again.

    What i see happening is,the yankees just being smarter with their money,but they have to clear cc,arod,tex off the books.
    Arod being a big problem.
    I’d talk to him about retiring so we can get most of that money covered by insurance,then tell him he can unretire in the future.

    I see us using everybody in the farm system for 2014-2015 to keep payroll down.

    Pineda,adams,austin,m williams,sanchez,joseph,phelps,nova,with hughes,and granderson gone.Maybe even cano.

  53. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:17 am

    The team has problems for sure but I’m not interested in only seeing the exaggerated negatives.
    =================================
    But that’s what sells newspapers.

  54. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 10:17 am

    Swisher has been one of the most consistent players in baseball while on the Yankees. His production will be significantly missed. Folks seem to focus on his playoff failures, but it isdoubtful they would have made it to the playoffs without him.

    Martin also will be missed. He is far better than the current replacements.

    The production decrease in those two positions alone may make them miss the playoffs this year.

    In 2014, they will be sub .500. There is no way on earth to add the number of players they will need. It would be tough without a strict budget. Impossible with one.

  55. Tyler December 11th, 2012 at 10:18 am

    mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:15 am
    Sounds like some are missing the long ball they criticized last season.
    Already there are moans for missing all or nothing Swisher.
    Martin and Arod are also being lamented.
    With Ichiro and Gardner we will be getting the situational hitting pined for last season.
    Let it breathe a little…
    ————————————–

    I don’t think most people really criticized that the Yanks were good at hitting homeruns last year. What was criticized was the one-dimensional nature of the lineup. Homeruns are fantastic but it would have been nice for the team to be able to manufacture a run occasionally when homeruns didn’t come against guys like Verlander.

  56. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:20 am

    but it isdoubtful they would have made it to the playoffs without him.
    ===============================
    Mac
    Wasn’t it yesterday you were sure Swisher was the one who put them over the top for the PS?
    I responded it was their pitching that did it, sounds like your stance is softening.

  57. chicken little December 11th, 2012 at 10:21 am

    think Cash’s way of doing things has gotten stale. It probably is time for a new GM with a new approach.

  58. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 10:21 am

    Gardner hits .260. Ichiro has a .270 average over the last two years. In what situations do you want them hitting? In what world will they produce as many runs?

    The negatives are not exaggerated. Cashman publicly says they are not a playoff team. You think Ichiro and Ibanez, if he returns, make them such? Or is it Youkilis and the rejuvenating machine we are relying upon?

  59. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 10:21 am

    morning all! so we want swisher back today?

  60. DONNYBROOK December 11th, 2012 at 10:22 am

    Yea, the Yanks cannot count on Nunez to Dinger the premiere Chuckers every time he gets the opportunity.

  61. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:23 am

    with ichiro, pierzynski, youkilis and hairston, a full season of Andy and Mo back, they could be better than last years team.

    don’t forget this is a walk year for cano.

  62. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 10:23 am

    i love when people call cashman a joke and a liar then quote his every word….

  63. Pauldanand December 11th, 2012 at 10:25 am

    …Youk?…
    Just say no

  64. Pauldanand December 11th, 2012 at 10:26 am

    its a matter of principle

  65. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:27 am

    DONNYBROOK says:
    December 11, 2012 at 10:14 am
    Swisher cost the Yankees their Biggest game of the season last year. NOW, just where does that factor into your WAR Nonsense. Thought so.

    WAR isn’t perfect….but it doesn’t have anything to do with a single game….it’s a whole season and Swisher helped them get to the playoffs

  66. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:27 am

    maybe the yanks should have gone after hamilton and all to match their HOF IF with an OF to match?

    after the LT reset, money will be spent , stop worrying…

  67. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:27 am

    blake – Exactly.

    I hope the O’s fall off a cliff as well, but assuming they will with less holes to fill than we have is kind of a stretch at the moment.

    I hope we can upgrade RF at least.

  68. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 10:27 am

    Mick,

    I say and have said Swisher, as a four win player according to WAR, was critical in making the playoffs. Could they have made it without him? Maybe. Maybe not.

    Take him away and replace him with less offense, take Martin away and replace him with less offense, take AROD away and reduce from the hoped for offense and return others who are are year older and more subject to decline, and I see no reason to think the team isn’t much worse.

    I would love to see some reason to be optimistic. The aging pitchers dang well better be as good or better than last year. Hughes, Nova and/or Phelps better pitch well. Mo, a human being, better still throw 90 mph plus at 43.

    I could go on, but it is too depressing.

  69. DONNYBROOK December 11th, 2012 at 10:28 am

    Cashman has been what we used to refer to as, “F Trooped”. Named after that horrible TV series, where the cavalry sent it’s worst soldiers to battle Indians that had No desire to fight. Cashman has a title, an office, a desk, and a phone. Nobody comes to the office, and the phone Never rings.

  70. Locke December 11th, 2012 at 10:28 am

    Truthfully, I’d love to have an outfield of Granderson, Gardner, Ichiro. We’d have great defense and two contact hitters.

  71. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:28 am

    Ichiro carried us down the stretch as well as Cano.
    To say it was Swisher’s doing is absurd.
    He was the worst clutch player I’ve ever seen.

  72. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:30 am

    Swisher has been one of the more consistent bets in baseball to OPS .800 + over the last few years …

    The Yanks will miss that over 162 games unless they replace it…..

  73. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:30 am

    Locke says:
    December 11, 2012 at 10:28 am
    Truthfully, I’d love to have an outfield of Granderson, Gardner, Ichiro. We’d have great defense and two contact hitters.

    And David Price and Matt Moore would love it too…..

  74. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 10:31 am

    Ys Guy,

    I would like average or above average production in RF whether it is from Swisher or someone else. Wouldn’t that be a good plan with the expected offensive reduction from other positions?

    I am not sure why anyone would argue with this point. Some like to argue. Some prefer to stand there ground irrespective of facts.

    I would love to be proven wrong and the team does have a cogent plan to improve on the long and short term.

  75. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:32 am

    I think they should let Swisher go for the contract he will get…..he is exiting his prime and for whatever reason he simply cannot hit in the playoffs…..but to suggest they won’t miss his regular season production is ridiculous…..

  76. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:34 am

    This lineup as currently constructed is going to be eaten alive by LHP….especially if Cano doesn’t start hitting lefties again…..it’s Jeter and Tex and then pray for walks

  77. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 10:34 am

    Cashman said it wasn’t a playoff lineup because there are still 4 holes in it.

  78. austinmac December 11th, 2012 at 10:35 am

    Mick,

    On what do you base your belief they will resume spending and is it after 2014, 2015 or 2016 or will the next CBA give them more of a reason not to spend?

  79. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 10:35 am

    i’ve been trying to nail down the savings from getting under the $189 LT threshold.

    according to jerkface, the LT + rev sharing savings from getting under the $189M is about $100M.

    add to that the lower payroll for this year and the next two that it will take to get under it. (lets say conservatively, that’s $50M less than carrying a $200M payroll would have cost.)

    thats a savings over the next 4 seasons (life of the cba) of $150M or $37M per year.

    that’s before any potential loss of revenue due to being less competetive.

    does that look about right to you guys?

  80. AAA December 11th, 2012 at 10:36 am

    morning all! so we want swisher back today?

    ===========================

    Wouldn’t be the worse thing.

  81. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 10:38 am

    austin, i like swisher. i posted here several times in the stretch run that i was hoping swisher would have a monster PS and force the yankees to keep him.

    but i also realized that if he didnt have a monster PS he was probably gone.

    i wouldnt mind having him back, but i realize that’s not going to happen.

  82. Cashmoney December 11th, 2012 at 10:39 am

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMyu8faAths

    Youk’s youthful days.

  83. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 10:40 am

    Swisher back for one year, sure. Back for 4+ years, no.

  84. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:40 am

    yea I would like Swisher back for a year…..with the budget I don’t think they can go beyond that though.

  85. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:40 am

    I am erring on the side of giving them the benefit of the doubt.
    I sleep better that way.
    If I am proven wrong then so be it, either way my opinion will not effect the way they do business.
    To insist Hal is a miser is not based on fact, just undue worry.
    It seems he is working within the new guidelines and could use money saved to buy future players when the FA market is better, right now it stinks.

  86. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:48 am

    blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:32 am

    I think they should let Swisher go for the contract he will get…..he is exiting his prime and for whatever reason he simply cannot hit in the playoffs…..but to suggest they won’t miss his regular season production is ridiculous…..

    ——————-

    I was surprised that by August Swish had one of the highest BAs on our team.. I think he fell third behind Jeter and Cano. I remember posting about it on here and not being sure if I wanted to laugh or cry because we knew he’d deliver a solid season going into FA but the fact that he was one of our better batters was kind of depressing.

  87. RMS December 11th, 2012 at 10:50 am

    This season is different for the Yankees.
    Mo coming off surgery, missed almost the whole year.
    Jeter coming off surgery.
    Alex will miss half the season.
    Will all 3 be in decline?

    —————–
    If I hear anymore about Youk, I will puke.

  88. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:50 am

    Swish is just a touch too old to get him on a one year deal, even for big money. And I’m not sad to see him go.. I’m just sad to see that they won’t replace his production.

  89. PhiltheThrill December 11th, 2012 at 10:53 am

    We need that pick.

  90. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:53 am

    @MarcCarig

    Dickey calls progress “relative.” Feels like he’s been fair with his demands, especially considering the market.

    @MarcCarig

    Dickey feels he’s extended an “olive branch” to the Mets. Says it’s been hard not to take things personally.

    @MarcCarig

    Sandy says things are “status quo” on Dickey front.

  91. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 10:53 am

    One thing Ichiro won’t do like Swish is swing out of his shoes with guys on base down by one run…

  92. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 10:54 am

    @mikekerwick

    Dickey: “I feel like we’re asking for even less than what’s fair.”

  93. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:54 am

    The mets are really screwing around with Dickey….he should just say forget the extension and trade me now..

  94. PhiltheThrill December 11th, 2012 at 10:54 am

    One thing he won’t do like Swish is take a walk.

  95. mick December 11th, 2012 at 10:54 am

    Pierzynski and Youkilis are gamers and I hope we get em…

  96. blake December 11th, 2012 at 10:54 am

    Dickey is asking for the same contract Jeremy Guthrie got !!!

  97. bruceb December 11th, 2012 at 10:57 am

    Pardon my ignorance – and maybe this question has already been asked and answered in a previous post – but does the Yankees’ deal with Ticketmaster preclude fans from selling their tickets via StubHub? And is this just an attempt at price fixing?

  98. Tyler December 11th, 2012 at 10:57 am

    Dickey’s an interesting case. One gigantic year at the age of 37 but the knuckleball is a huge x factor. He could pitch for another 10 years and be really effective. He could also lose the feel for the pitch overnight and become very average. That being said, the Mets should absolutely give him Jeremy Guthrie money.

  99. blake December 11th, 2012 at 11:00 am

    Dickey was pretty good last year….Id love to have him for what he’s asking for the innings alone

  100. jacksquat December 11th, 2012 at 11:02 am

    Dickey has been good the past 3 years. He’ll be 38 next year, but what he is asking for doesn’t seem unreasonable.

  101. DONNYBROOK December 11th, 2012 at 11:02 am

    You gonna go after Dickey? You Also need a catcher that can receive him.

  102. chicken little December 11th, 2012 at 11:04 am

    Given the state of pitching and that big name pitchers usually don’t make it to the open market, even if he has a bad year this year you have to believe dickey will be able to get a deal next year at least equal to what he is asking for now.

  103. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:04 am

    the mets are counting on the fact that dickey’s never made a huge chunk of money and will grab what they offer even if it’s below market because he’ll take security over waiting a year and hoping to cash in then (at age 39?)

    its not a bad strategy but what’s the b/u plan? dickey is a weird duck, their thinking may not apply to him.

    paying him to pitch next year when they have no shot, then letting him walk is probably the worst plan.

    obviously they have not gotten the talent they’d hoped for offered in a trade for him.

    still plenty of time to work it out, though.

  104. blake December 11th, 2012 at 11:09 am

    “You gonna go after Dickey? You Also need a catcher that can receive him.”

    not for the Yankees because they have other more pressing needs….

  105. chicken little December 11th, 2012 at 11:10 am

    you have to believe that if the mets don’t sign dickey, he’s a goner by july. i don’t see sandy holding out for the draft pick. the question is — will a team panic in july and overpay for dickey (ala SF and beltran) or will dickey stink?

  106. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:13 am

    bruce, my understanding is that it doesnt prevent you from selling them through stubhub, just that it won’t be as easy as it was (they had some kind of app or link on the STH site that made it super easy.)

    speculation is that ticketmaster will have some price floor, perhaps not allowing sales below the face value.

    hey, even if it means going back to the old days of buying from a scalper down river avenue, the market will prevail one way or another.

    if this attempt fails for them, expect them to go to variable pricing based on the opponent, the day, the month, etc. (which would better reflect the market)

  107. Benny Blanco December 11th, 2012 at 11:14 am

    Does anyone here think that AJP will hit worst than Russell?

  108. Tyler December 11th, 2012 at 11:15 am

    Yeah I’d absolutely sign Dickey for what he’s asking for. You’re right that he’s been pretty good the entire time he’s been a Met. He’ll definitely be traded if he doesn’t re-sign before the season or at the beginning because they can’t let him walk for nothing.

  109. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:16 am

    blake December 11th, 2012 at 11:00 am

    Dickey was pretty good last year….Id love to have him for what he’s asking for the innings alone

    ——————

    In the past, he’d be exactly the type of insurance starter we’d go after. That’s right.. the Yankees would pick up a Cy Young winner as insurance.

    Now.. the Rangers will probably go after him.

  110. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:16 am

    my understanding is that players traded during their walk year will not bring back a draft pick if a QO is offered and declined. this will devalue the in-season trade some, but in the end a team that thinks it’s got a shot to go for it all and needs a good pitcher is going to go after that pitcher anyway, imo.

  111. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:17 am

    DONNYBROOK December 11th, 2012 at 11:02 am

    You gonna go after Dickey? You Also need a catcher that can receive him.

    —————-

    We have ALL the defensive catchers we need /Cashman’d

  112. chicken little December 11th, 2012 at 11:18 am

    Girardi will catch Dickey. Truth is he may be better than the crap the Yanks plan on running out there.

  113. bruceb December 11th, 2012 at 11:19 am

    Thanks for your reply, YS.

    Just read the story in the Daily News, which is quite enlightening. It says people will still be able to sell tickets on StubHub but with a $6 minimum and a possible blackout six hours before a game.

    Understandably, the Yankees are trying to protect the best interests of their season-ticket holders (and hence their own pocket), but given the huge number of cheap tickets available through StubHub this year, I think the end result will be a lot of empty seats at the less attractive games.

  114. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:19 am

    The thing I find funny about the Ticketmaster deal is they’re saying they don’t have any fees… that’s actually completely untrue. The difference is when you’re browsing tickets, they include the fees in the price already whereas on other sites you’ll see the price the tickets are on sale for and then when you go to complete the purchase the other fees are tacked on.

    More upfront? Sure. But saying there are no fees is a blatant lie.

  115. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:20 am

    bruceb December 11th, 2012 at 11:19 am

    Thanks for your reply, YS.

    Just read the story in the Daily News, which is quite enlightening. It says people will still be able to sell tickets on StubHub but with a $6 minimum and a possible blackout six hours before a game.

    ————-
    That’s gonna hurt. A lot of people get the best deals by buying a couple hours before game time.

  116. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:22 am

    They’re going to hang onto Dickey and try to milk some desperate team that needs that one extra piece by the deadline.. but they’re playing a dangerous game for a couple of reasons.

    1 – What if the Mets actually look competitive in the first half? Fan base will hate them for moving an important pitcher.

    2 – What if he blows and his value tanks?

  117. JoeyVegas December 11th, 2012 at 11:35 am

    How about an argument for trading Gardner… With Ichiro in the fold you have the speed/defense thing covered. If you can move Gardner for, say, Willingham (straight up or maybe a 3-way with MIN and ATL), I think you have to make that move. You assume Heathcott/Almonte/Flores can play an OF spot in 2014 with Williams/Austin possible in 2015. I guess the drawback is that it makes it harder to let Granderson go without moving on Ellsbury or banking on one of the youngsters to man CF. It just seems like in the near-term Ichiro fills the Gardner role and in the long-term these prospects can. I don’t see a 40 HR guy down there but I do see some speed/OBP guys.

    Maybe move Gardner and prepare to sign Cruz/Choo/Hart or, my personal favorite (if ATL doesn’t extend him) Prado in 2014. Or Sandoval/Headley in 2015.

  118. 86w183 December 11th, 2012 at 11:35 am

    The thing I find funny about the Ticketmaster deal is they’re saying they don’t have any fees… that’s actually completely untrue. The difference is when you’re browsing tickets, they include the fees in the price already whereas on other sites you’ll see the price the tickets are on sale for and then when you go to complete the purchase the other fees are tacked on.

    More upfront? Sure. But saying there are no fees is a blatant lie.

    **************************************************************************

    It’s not a lie, not at all. It’s just like when a politician votes for increases in tolls, park admissions, airline security fees etc…. it’s not a tax increase it’s a user fee.

  119. blake December 11th, 2012 at 11:38 am

    I think they should shop Gardner and see what they can get….several teams want a leadoff hitter….Braves , Royals etc….if you can get significantly more for Gardner than Granderson….or you can get a player that’s a better fit the. Maybe you do it and hope Heathcott is ready for 2014

  120. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:39 am

    the $6 minimum the cite in the DN article about stubhub reflects the fact that stubhub is going to start listing the ticket prices with fees included. so since the minimum fee is $5, that ticket that used to list at $1 will now list as $6. its not a floor or a change in fees just a change in how they display the cost.

    apparently ticketmaster has been listing ticket prices with the fees included.

  121. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 11:41 am

    “To insist Hal is a miser is not based on fact, just undue worry.
    It seems he is working within the new guidelines and could use money saved to buy future players when the FA market is better, right now it stinks.”

    This is a very interesting take.

    I too have thought the interuption in spending was just temporary.

    But I currently believe the reason is that the team is being readied for sale.

    I do not believe has the passion for baseball nor for winning that his Father had.

    And he admits to loving his spreadsheets.

    The new owner would still be well situated to increase payroll in 2016 if they so desire.

    I also believe that, though they do not owe it to us, the Brass could do a better job of communicating their intentions to the fanbase.

    The honesty and directness would likely be appreciated.

    As long as the fans can see a plan I think they can get on board.

    They shouldn’t have to guess or be left twisting in the wind.

  122. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:43 am

    i think gardner in next year’s lineup is one of the things im looking forward to next season. better d, speed on the bases, maybe even a bunt now and again, just what the lineup needs. i like the idea of jeter/ichiro/gardner sharing the leadoff/#2 and #9 spots instead of all that hacking for the fences stuff.

    jmo.

  123. blake December 11th, 2012 at 11:43 am

    @JonHeymanCBS: justin upton looks like he’s staying in arizona for now. no progress in trade talks. http://t.co/bfgvZipa

  124. pkyankfan69 December 11th, 2012 at 11:45 am

    I see Dickey and the Mets reaching an agreement prior to the season.

    Apparently they are offering 2 years – $20M
    Apparently he wants 2 years – $26M
    (Both of course on top of his $5M next year)

    Really not that far apart… They will probably end up somewhere in the middle… Dickey, having not made much money in his career (in relative baseball terms of course) and at age 38, will be highly motivated to sign an extension prior to this year for the security. If he stinks this upcoming year he will never ever have a chance to sign a contact for $20M+ again. That being said, I would not be shocked 1 bit to see the Mets turn around trade Dickey in the next year or 2 after he signs the extension… If he continues to dominate next year he would likely be an even more attractive trade target for other teams due to his very reasonable contract. His extension will get done (assuming reports on his demands are accurate)… It makes too much sense for both sides.

  125. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:49 am

    86w183 December 11th, 2012 at 11:35 am

    The thing I find funny about the Ticketmaster deal is they’re saying they don’t have any fees… that’s actually completely untrue. The difference is when you’re browsing tickets, they include the fees in the price already whereas on other sites you’ll see the price the tickets are on sale for and then when you go to complete the purchase the other fees are tacked on.

    More upfront? Sure. But saying there are no fees is a blatant lie.

    **************************************************************************

    It’s not a lie, not at all. It’s just like when a politician votes for increases in tolls, park admissions, airline security fees etc…. it’s not a tax increase it’s a user fee.

    —————-

    :lol:

    Very true.

    Can’t believe they’re thinking of keeping Upton yet again.. he might end up hurting his own trade value if he can’t get his head in the game. I think I’d have trouble working at my job if my boss tinkered with sending me to work for another company every couple months. I still think he gets moved before ST.

  126. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:50 am

    Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:39 am

    the $6 minimum the cite in the DN article about stubhub reflects the fact that stubhub is going to start listing the ticket prices with fees included. so since the minimum fee is $5, that ticket that used to list at $1 will now list as $6. its not a floor or a change in fees just a change in how they display the cost.

    apparently ticketmaster has been listing ticket prices with the fees included.

    ————–

    Makes sense.

  127. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:52 am

    If you can get something valuable back for Gardner that’s one thing, but his value at his cost is really, really good. It’d be difficult to replace in that respect.

    Also, not sure how much you can get for him given that he didn’t play last year. If anything, now would be a good time to try and extend him on the cheap lol.

  128. mick December 11th, 2012 at 11:53 am

    I do not believe has the passion for baseball nor for winning that his Father had.
    =================
    MTU this is true without a doubt.
    We can only hope Hal develops a passion for the game.
    After all the money he saves, he might learn to love the game .
    Imagine what a winning team would do for his profit margin?
    He might even reinvest some of it into the team…

  129. Ys Guy December 11th, 2012 at 11:53 am

    i kinda get the feeling that alot of teams, like texas and cleveland, nyy(?) have been waiting for towers to work a trade for upton and some others on that roster. if its not gonna happen soon, everybody will have to move on to the next thing.

    of course that could just be a plant by arizona and upton may be on the verge of being moved tomorrow.

  130. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:53 am

    It’d be nice to have at least one cost controlled position player locked through 2016 to help bridge the kids..

  131. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 11:54 am

    Shame-

    “Can’t believe they’re thinking of keeping Upton yet again.. he might end up hurting his own trade value if he can’t get his head in the game. I think I’d have trouble working at my job if my boss tinkered with sending me to work for another company every couple months. I still think he gets moved before ST.”

    If the proper trade could have been arranged he’d already be gone.

    I agree. I doubt very much he sees ST with the Snakes.

    Highly unlikely IMO.

  132. DONNYBROOK December 11th, 2012 at 11:54 am

    If it’s me, I trade Nova inna deal to get Revere, and pass on Ichiro. I then attempt to sign Hamilton to a 5yr deal. If I get Hamilton, then Gardner is floated. That would give the Yanks an OF of Hamilton, Granderson, and Revere.

  133. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 11:54 am

    Maybe Towers is just trying to signal to other clubs that he’s open to hearing more offers for Upton. A couple weeks ago it seemed like all the players were already on board, so this could be a way to let everyone else know that ‘hey, we’re still listening.’

  134. JoeyVegas December 11th, 2012 at 11:54 am

    Gerardo Parra might be an interesting chip if ARI really keeps Upton. Between Parra and Chris Johnson, Towers has a couple pieces that could be really useful. Might have interest in Nunez, too. Let’s make it happen…

  135. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 11:57 am

    “Imagine what a winning team would do for his profit margin?
    He might even reinvest some of it into the team…”

    I would have thought that this had been amply demonstrated already.

    My current POV is that he is a seller.

    There have been other indicators FWIS.

    Maybe I’m wrong.

    ;)

  136. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 12:00 pm

    Snakes ownership does not like Upton.

    That is the kiss of death.

    Only questions are when, for what, and to whom.

    He’s a marked Man.

  137. Shame Spencer December 11th, 2012 at 12:02 pm

    MTU – Agreed. I think a deal gets done.. just a matter of when and with whom.

  138. 86w183 December 11th, 2012 at 12:03 pm

    Well said MTU —-

    If Hal was only about saving money the rotation in 2013 would have been CC, Hughes, Nova Phelps and Warren. The bullpen would have featured Robertson, Chamberlain, Logan, Rapada, Eppley and Montgomery.

    That would have been about $ 40 M or so cheaper.

    There are long term competitive benefits to getting down to $ 189 M i 2014 whether some of you want to believe it or not.

    Personally I would have preferred getting there as fast as possible as opposed to this chinese water torture of an off-season. MY guess is they believe several of the “kids” will be ready in 2014.

    I disagree about them selling however. If he’s gonna take a public flogging for cutting payroll he’s likely gonna want to reap the benefits too.

  139. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 12:04 pm

    Shame-

    Somehow, whether justified or not, JU has gotten crosswise to ownership.

    That’s an untenable situation.

    If I’m Upton I can’t wait to move on and prove those folks wrong.

    Wish he would get that chance with the Yankees.

    :(

  140. 86w183 December 11th, 2012 at 12:06 pm

    I wish I knew what the D-Backs would want from the Yanks for Upton.

  141. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 12:09 pm

    86-

    Whatever it is we either don’t have it, or are unwilling to give it up.

  142. blake December 11th, 2012 at 12:10 pm

    86w183 says:
    December 11, 2012 at 12:06 pm
    I wish I knew what the D-Backs would want from the Yanks for Upton.

    Derek Jeter and a time machine

  143. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 12:11 pm

    It’s friggin freezing out here right now but I’m gonna go force myself to head on out and get some hiking in.

    Might even take the mopheads.

    I’ll catch you all later.

    Have a good one All.

    :)

  144. MTU December 11th, 2012 at 12:12 pm

    Last thing I’ll say.

    “Towers. You owe us.”

    ;)

  145. luis December 11th, 2012 at 12:15 pm

    Good afternoon guys,

    MTU,

    Our mutual friend is very close to go someplace else ;)

    About Ichiro,

    Even though I think he did a very good job last season, and I would like him to return. this only reinforces my notion that they are simply allergic to give a young kid a chance. I hope I am wrong.

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