The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Considering the future of Phil Hughes

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 02, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

 

Monday was New Years Eve, yesterday was New Years Day, and today is a random Wednesday in the middle of baseball’s offseason. That’s why I’ll probably use today to fully catch up on some of the reading I missed during last week’s vacation.

The process started last night with this piece from Joel Sherman, who examined the curious case of Phil Hughes. The basic idea of Sherman’s story was this sentence:

… to be among the best in the majors and provide greater protection against the fragility atop the rotation and the regression of the offense, the Yankees need this irony: Phil Hughes to pitch so well in 2013 that he prices himself off the team in 2014.

As he always does, Sherman makes a strong and interesting point. And even if I’m not entirely sure I agree with his conclusion, his basic point is hard to argue.

If Hughes pitches well this season — which Sherman speculates might be easier to do given the Yankees improved outfield defense — Hughes could enter the free agent market having set his value somewhere between what Edwin Jackson (four years, $52 million) and Anibal Sanchez (six years, $80 million) made this offseason. Regardless of whether you agree on the exact dollar figure, Hughes will be just 27 years old, and young starting pitchers don’t reach the open market very often these days, so he’s going to have considerable value.

Question is, will the Yankees be able to afford him. Sherman’s not so sure. I think they’ll have little choice but to pay him.

As Brian Cashman showed with last winter’s Jesus Montero trade — and with his first moves this offseason — pitching is the priority. The Yankees might be better known for their bats, but their general manager prefers pitching, and the Yankees are going to need pitching next winter. CC Sabathia will be in place, but it seems reasonable to think Andy Pettitte will be ready to retire again, and Hiroki Kuroda can fill a hole for only so long. Manny Banuelos will be in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, Jose Campos won’t be ready, and who knows what the Yankees will have in Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova or David Phelps?

If Hughes truly does take another step forward and proves to be a dependable No. 3 starter, he’ll be as reliable an option as the Yankees could hope for. Giving him a multi-year deal might very well mean having to cut corners elsewhere — maybe in the outfield, in the bullpen, or once again behind the plate — but a four- or five-year deal with Hughes might be the Yankees best and least risky way of bringing some rotation stability.

Naturally, there would be considerable risk with such a contract, but that’s true of any long-term deal with any pitcher. At least Hughes would be relatively young, meaning the Yankees wouldn”t have to sign him into his late 30s. He would be coming off back-to-back pretty good years, and three solid years in the past four.

For any of this to matter, Hughes will have to prove he deserves a long-term commitment. Proving that means consistency and durability. If he does that, the Yankees might have to make Hughes an offseason priority and find ways to save their money elsewhere.

Associated Press photo

 
 

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121 Responses to “Considering the future of Phil Hughes”

  1. MTU January 2nd, 2013 at 9:04 am

    I agree with you Chad.

    I think it will be hard for the Yankees to let Phil walk if he has another good year.

  2. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:04 am

    If Hughes has a good 2013 then he could get 5/75 on the open market as the only legit under 30 starter available.

    So knowing this the Yankees should either attempt to sign him to an affordable extension now ….or they should look to trade him and replace him in the rotation with maybe Marcum or Lohse if either would do a 1 year deal.

    Of course they’ll do neither and they’ll lose him for nothing next winter cause that’s the Yankee way

  3. MTU January 2nd, 2013 at 9:06 am

    Off to walk the Mops.

  4. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:06 am

    blake says:
    January 2, 2013 at 9:00 am
    “They would probably have to trade Cano for the assets to package, assuming there is a team willing to do that.”

    Yea and thats messy.

    I think if the Yanks said look you can have any 4 prospects plus either Gardner or Nova then maybe the marlins would talk….. But would that make the Yankees better longterm?

  5. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:07 am

    I’m trying to figure out how different the packages would have to be for Upton vs. Giancarlo.. I mean, are we talking Williams, Sanchez, Austin, Nova/Phelps vs. Williams, Sanchez, Heathcott, Nova/Phelps, and Grandy/Gardner or something like that? I understand changing even a couple of players in the deal makes a big difference in terms of our system.. but I think if you’re going to make a big trade for Upton you could argue it might be more beneficial to just go all in on Giancarlo (since he’s cheaper and, I think, controlled for longer than Upton) and trade Cano for new prospects to start rebuilding the system.

  6. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:08 am

    There is literally no way they can sign both Cano and Hughes (assuming Hughes has a good 2013)…..and stay under the self imposed cap.

    Signing them both would put roughly 145 million on the books for luxury tax purposes for 7 players (Cano, Arod, Jeter, Hughes, Ichiro, Tex, and Sabathia).

  7. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:09 am

    …and I like the name Giancarlo so much better than Justin.

    My brother’s name is Justin. He’s a jackass.

  8. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:10 am

    “I’m trying to figure out how different the packages would have to be for Upton vs. Giancarlo”

    Huge for Upton…., Ginormous for Stanton….they may not have enough for either in reality but Upton is much more realistic IMO

  9. Rich in NJ January 2nd, 2013 at 9:10 am

    Guaranteeing Ichiro money in 2014 potentialky took money away from Hughes. With a limited budget, that made no sense.

  10. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:11 am

    As I’ve said….I honestly think Texas is pretty much the only team that matches up for a Giancarlo trade

  11. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 9:11 am

    Blake,

    I completely agree they have insufficient spendable money for both Cano and Hughes. The numbers don’t work and Sherman seems to be the only one who remotely understands that.

    If they sign Cano, they have something like $50 M for the rest of the team. They can’t give one-third to Hughes.

    2014 will be draconian changes.

  12. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:12 am

    Rich in NJ says:
    January 2, 2013 at 9:10 am
    Guaranteeing Ichiro money in 2014 potentialky took money away from Hughes. With a limited budget, that made no sense.

    Nope it didn’t….I think they did it for marketing as much as anything.

  13. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:13 am

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:08 am

    There is literally no way they can sign both Cano and Hughes (assuming Hughes has a good 2013)…..and stay under the self imposed cap.

    Signing them both would put roughly 145 million on the books for luxury tax purposes for 7 players (Cano, Arod, Jeter, Hughes, Ichiro, Tex, and Sabathia).

    ———————-

    I could see them trying it though, depending on what happens this year.. if Nova and Phelps fail to perform and Pineda is a lost cause, I dunno what choice they’d have. My theory would make more sense if you figure some of the younger kids would get playing time in 2013 to earn spots on the team in 2014. But at this rate I dunno how likely that is outside of the C position…gotta really hope Romine doesn’t end up creating another hole instead of filling one at this point.

  14. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:13 am

    “If they sign Cano, they have something like $50 M for the rest of the team. They can’t give one-third to Hughes.”

    As much as I love Hughes….nope they cannot

  15. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:15 am

    “I could see them trying it though, depending on what happens this year”

    Remember though that guys like Garnder and Robertson and nova if he’s still around will be making real money in arbitration by then also…..it’d be super tight….. Theoretically possible i guess but super tight….they’d really need pretty much the rest of the roster to be prospects making the minimum

  16. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:16 am

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:11 am

    As I’ve said….I honestly think Texas is pretty much the only team that matches up for a Giancarlo trade

    ———————–

    It really depends on what the hell the Marlins are thinking and I’m not sure anyone wants to try and figure that mess out lol.

    I think you could give them a shot at being competitive in 2013 if they trade Giancarlo for a mix of big league and minor league talent.. Give them Grandy’s HRs, Robertson as their closer, and their pick of a starting pitcher (Nova/Hughes/Phelps) plus 3 high end prospects and I think that’s a deal still worth making tbh. But to make moves like that you need to be ready to make other creative moves… not sure they are capable.

  17. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:17 am

    Getting Upton would give them Cano leverage also….if the Dodgers wanted to give him 220 million or whatever then the yanks could say big bye and have a 26 year old middle of the order guy making 8 AAV

  18. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:19 am

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:15 am

    “I could see them trying it though, depending on what happens this year”

    Remember though that guys like Garnder and Robertson and nova if he’s still around will be making real money in arbitration by then also…..it’d be super tight….. Theoretically possible i guess but super tight….they’d really need pretty much the rest of the roster to be prospects making the minimum

    ——————

    Oh they’d be taking an insane risk.. but that’s what they’re doing now already. They haven’t made one move outside of Pineda that has the potential to help them stay on a budget and be competitive. So if Phelps and Nova flame out and Pineda can’t help you, do you spend a chunk of change on Kuroda or Andy for another year or do you invest in Hughes? I think at that point you have to invest in Hughes and buck the budget anyway, I think. Sort of like you’ve been saying… they might not be able to actually do it.

  19. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:19 am

    “I think you could give them a shot at being competitive in 2013 if they trade Giancarlo for a mix of big league and minor league talent”

    Nah….not in that division….the Nats and Braves are too good….the marlins are years away with or without Giancarlo which is why I really think they should trade him now given that he’s unlikely to sign an extension.

    Their fans are pissed anyway…..it’s not like he’s gonna fill the stadium if they keep him. Deal him for a huge package of prospects and try to win in like 3 years or so

  20. Rich in NJ January 2nd, 2013 at 9:20 am

    Nope it didn’t….I think they did it for marketing as much as anything.
    -

    It is hard for me to believe that Cashman wanted that signing. Hughes could be the starter he can point to showing his development plan is beginning to bear fruit. Levine, otoh, was the force behind the Ichiro trade and it is reasonable to think that he wants him to stay, especially since it has had a (very) short-term payoff.

  21. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:23 am

    Ichiro had the 3rd most jersey sales in 2012 and he brings in money from Japan also…..Yanks saw him as a money maker that would sign cheap.

  22. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:25 am

    The Yankees should offer Hughes like 4/32 or something to do an extension now…..if he declines then they should shop him and start talking to guys like Lohse and marcum and see if either would do a one year deal…..

  23. JoeyVegas January 2nd, 2013 at 9:25 am

    Any chance he takes a smallerl 1-year deal and then signs a big extension after the Yankees clear the budget threshold?

  24. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:27 am

    JoeyVegas says:
    January 2, 2013 at 9:25 am
    Any chance he takes a smallerl 1-year deal and then signs a big extension after the Yankees clear the budget threshold?

    No way id do that if Im him…..way too much risk and YS is bad for him anywhere.

    If I’m Phil Hughes then I really try to put up a great 2013 and then I tell my agent to sell the dodgers on how great Id look as their 3rd starter in that division of big ball parks

  25. JoeyVegas January 2nd, 2013 at 9:29 am

    I’d want to pitch for the Yankees. Best franchise in sports.

  26. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:29 am

    Hughes’s biggest issue is his homer rate…..he pitches in pretty much the worst division in baseball for that problem…..Id expect the West coast teams where the parks are better suited for him would have lots of interest if he has a good year

  27. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:30 am

    JoeyVegas says:
    January 2, 2013 at 9:29 am
    I’d want to pitch for the Yankees. Best franchise in sports.

    If you were from SoCal and a team from there was offering you a lot more money would you?

  28. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:31 am

    I was thinking more along the lines of what the Marlins want their fans to think they’re doing.. If I’m them I sell for only the top prospect talent, but maybe they want to give the air of actually trying by adding some pop and/or pitching. Yeah it’s a pipe dream I’m sure.. but Levine was pushing for it, so why can’t we :D

  29. mick January 2nd, 2013 at 9:40 am

    Let’s see how the Dodgers do next year with all their money spent.

  30. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:41 am

    I think the Marlins fans are gone for awhile no matter what they do

  31. Phranchise January 2nd, 2013 at 9:49 am

    Hughes is 26, still can get better and with more experience hopefully get better with what he has now. He has pitched in NY and proved he can pitch here. What is the point of developing pitching talent and not keeping it? You don’t go through the learning pains pitchers have just to let them walk after they get their legs under them. I am not saying pay him like CC, but would you rather have Anibel Sanchez or Edwin Jackson or some of the other comparables. Thanks to the regression of Betcances/Nova and Banuelos getting hurt, Hughes is the pitcher still with the biggest upside. Thankfully Phelps has progressed behind him.

  32. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 9:53 am

    “What is the point of developing pitching talent and not keeping it? ”

    Ask Hal and his budget….Im not saying they shouldn’t keep him….I’m saying if they stick to this budget it’s going to be very difficult to keep him

  33. Yankee Trader January 2nd, 2013 at 9:56 am

    Good morning. Happy and Healthy and Prosperous New Year to all of you.

    On Hughes from yesterdays’s NoMaas.org article comparing Yankees vs Blue Jays starting staffs:

    “Hughes had a very average 2012. He had an average 4.23 ERA, an average 7.76 K/9 rate, and an average 1.9 WAR. His biggest achievement was staying healthy and pitching 191 reasonably effective innings. He displayed good control with a 2.2 BB/9, but he solidified his rep as a flyball pitcher (48% FB rate), which is not well suited to a righty pitching half his games in Yankee Stadium. This is Hughes’ last year before becoming a free agent. It will likely be his last as a Yankee, and there’s little left of the amazing promise he once held for the organization. He was once the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and had one golden season as Mariano’s setup man in 2009. But, injuries and mismanagement by the Yankees have dimmed the glow of his star, and there’s not much reason to think he can improve upon 2012. Take away his relief innings and you’ve got a starting pitcher with a career 4.68 ERA. Sad.”

    http://nomaas.org/2013/01/2013.....-rotation/

  34. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 9:56 am

    I think Sherman’s pessimism is unwarranted, as always.

  35. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:57 am

    I asked a few days ago, and I think the consensus was Hughes, but just for sh*ts and giggles since we have nothing else to do (no games tomorrow): If you can only resign one, who do you choose, Cano or Hughes.

    I’m setting Hughes’ contract at about 5/75 and Cano’s at about 8-9/220. I think those are realistic numbers but by all means, let me know if I should adjust.

  36. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 9:59 am

    RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 9:56 am

    I think Sherman’s pessimism is unwarranted, as always.

    —————–

    How so? All he’s saying is they can’t sign both and be competitive. Is that pessimism or pragmatism?

  37. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:01 am

    Axisa is saying at RAB that player options are NOT counted as guaranteed money and that the option year is treated as a new contract with a separate AAV……if this is true then that helps a bit with Jeter for 2014

  38. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:01 am

    “I’m setting Hughes’ contract at about 5/75 and Cano’s at about 8-9/220. I think those are realistic numbers but by all means, let me know if I should adjust.”

    Probably Hughes

  39. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:02 am

    How so? All he’s saying is they can’t sign both and be competitive. Is that pessimism or pragmatism?
    ———

    Who says? Of course they can sign both if they want to. They just have to spend less elsewhere, as Chad pointed out.

  40. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:02 am

    I’d bet the Yankees let Cano walk before Hughes, personally.

  41. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 10:05 am

    Kev,

    As Blake pointed out, if they sign Cano they will have about $45 million left with seven signed players. How can they sign anyone to a $15M/yr. contract leaving $30M for 32 more players, including 18 for the 25 man roster?

    Simply stated, something has got to give. What is giving is any high cost players who are not already signed.

  42. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 10:07 am

    RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:02 am

    How so? All he’s saying is they can’t sign both and be competitive. Is that pessimism or pragmatism?
    ———

    Who says? Of course they can sign both if they want to. They just have to spend less elsewhere, as Chad pointed out.

    ——————–

    Well yes.. and they have a lot of holes and if they sign Hughes and Cano they’ll have approximately $140ish million on the books at another 15 roster spots to fill. Next year here is what they’ll need if they DO sign both: 3B, OFer (likely 2, at least 1), SP, DH… and we’re just hoping to god they find their C this year because if they don’t that’d be a 5th open spot. There’s nothing remotely pessimistic about what Sherman is saying. He’s only working off of the facts we have which are fairly straight forward – we’re on a budget and have big money committed to ineffective players.

  43. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:09 am

    I hope Hals budget gives

  44. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:16 am

    http://mobile.philly.com/sport.....All=y#more

    If the Yanks did trade Granderson then would this guy be a good target?

  45. Doreen January 2nd, 2013 at 10:17 am

    Not to be a downer, but, I told you all that I was not comfortable with the information I had obtained about our friend GB7, and that i needed to check further.

    I have continued to check. Today, I found out that, indeed, our friend is no longer with us.

    God Bless and Rest in Peace, dear, dear friend.

    (I have to admit, I was holding out hope. I am only now allowing myself to process the information.)

  46. PacoDooley January 2nd, 2013 at 10:21 am

    Anyone know how this luxury tax business really works? For example, if the Yankees are over the ‘cap’ in 2014 I know that they pay a 50% tax, but what happens if they get under for 2015? Is the 2014 a one time deal, or is it simply a rule that you reset the tax if you get under for a season. If it is the latter then they could potentially be over for 2014 and then push off the budget to 2015, no?

    Plus, if they are only slightly over in 2014 are they really paying that much (like if they are $10M over the 50% tax is not that much). I know that there is a rebate component as well, but I have no firm idea of how this all really works and therefore, whether there is more flexibility than we might perceive.

  47. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:24 am

    RIP GB7. I hope you’re eating a hot dog with Mantle in some minor league park in the sky right now

  48. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:27 am

    The Yanks are saving the most money in 2014 by simply spending less money.

  49. The Return of Stoneburner January 2nd, 2013 at 10:30 am

    From BA on Asche:

    Scouting Report: Asche always has had the hands, bat speed and plate discipline to hit. Adding a better load to his swing during instructional league in 2011 allowed him to better tap into his power. His short stroke and strong finish create loft off the barrel, though some scouts if he’ll have enough pop to profile as a regular at third base. He gets a tad overly aggressive at times, but he goes to the plate with a good plan. Asche grades as average with the glove, and managers named him the Florida State League’s best defensive third baseman in 2012. He has a solid arm and good hands, and he has improved his positioning and footwork. He’s an average runner who’s quicker underway.

    The Future: He’s not a prototypical power-hitting, slick-fielding third baseman, but Asche should hit enough to have a big league role, perhaps as a regular. He could start 2013 in Triple-A and be in line to take over for Michael Young when Young becomes a free agent after the season.

  50. The Return of Stoneburner January 2nd, 2013 at 10:32 am

    From BA on Ruf:

    Scouting Report: Ruf always has hit, batting .290 or better in each of his four pro seasons. Though he didn’t break out until he turned 26, Philadelphia believes his home run binge is the result of maturing at the plate. He has plenty of raw strength and started tapping into it when he added loft to his swing and identified which pitches he can drive. He’s a good fastball hitter, and he had success against soft stuff in his short stint in the big leagues. Ruf is a well below-average runner and a fringy defender at first base, his natural position. He started taking flyballs in left field last July and isn’t pretty in the outfield, though he catches what he gets to. His arm is playable.

    The Future: He’s blocked at first base by Ryan Howard, but the Phillies want to get his bat in their lineup. He could be their everyday left fielder in 2013, a scenario unimaginable in the middle of last season. At worst, he should be a power bat off the bench.

  51. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:33 am

    Ashce sounds interesting to me…. He hit in high A, AA, and the AFL which is a good sign …..

  52. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 10:33 am

    Hi Doreen. Happy 2013. I had definitely accepted that GB was no longer with us based on the information you found out earlier. Thank you for at least verifying that though. When he stopped posting altogether and we couldn’t contact him at all, I knew it couldn’t be good. :(

    I really miss him. He loved his Yankees no matter what, and he never tried to run the team or bothered himself with minutiae. He just rooted for the New York Yankees. He understood that he had no control over anything the Yankees did and saw the endless obssessing over player moves as a silly waste of energy. He was no nonsense, he could be brusque, and he didn’t suffer fools lightly. But he knew the history of the game like no other. There was never any question that he absolutely and unconditionally loved the New York Yankees.

    Miss you GB. You were definitely the real deal.

  53. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:34 am

    Joseph is obviously another guy Id have interest in

  54. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:37 am

    The team Payroll for the Padres last year was $55.2M. The Yankees can make it work. It’s about what their priorities are.

  55. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:38 am

    The A’s were the second lowest payroll at $55.3M and made the post season.

  56. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 10:42 am

    Doreen,

    Thank you for your efforts. It is funny how we can form a friendship with someone with whom we have never seen or spoken.

    GB7, we miss you. You regularly made me laugh even when telling me how wrong my opinion was. Thank you for your service to our country and for all of us.

  57. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 10:44 am

    Kev, stop making sense. Only when the Yankees spend billions are their fans satisfied. After all, it’s owed to them. When the Yankees aren’t spending like drunken sailors, there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth.

    Oh the indignity of it!

    :lol:

  58. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 10:45 am

    austin – hear hear!

  59. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 10:45 am

    The A’s have no one on the payroll making as much as Hughes will make if he has a good year. Plus, the A’s have been working for years to get a cheap team together. The Yankees have not.

    It is comparing apples and oranges.

  60. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 10:47 am

    austin – I don’t think the Rays have a burgeoning payroll. (But they did end up with some great draft picks over the years. Same with the Nats.)

    Look at how that stuff comes home to roost! It’s the system. What can you do.

  61. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:48 am

    RadioKev says:
    January 2, 2013 at 10:37 am
    The team Payroll for the Padres last year was $55.2M. The Yankees can make it work. It’s about what their priorities are.

    The padres were awful and the As were out of nowhere as for huge performances from tons of young players…..if the yanks get huge impacts from their farm system then sure they’ll be fine

  62. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 10:49 am

    Trisha,

    It is one thing to expect the Yankees to buy all the good players, but in 2014, if one simply looks at the payroll obligaitons, including arbitration eligible payers, they are in a huge financial hole unless a number of rookies can contribute significantly.

    Next year the Yankees will be spending like drunken sailors down by the wharves. They won’t have the money to go elswhere.

  63. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:53 am

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:48 am
    RadioKev says:
    January 2, 2013 at 10:37 am
    The team Payroll for the Padres last year was $55.2M. The Yankees can make it work. It’s about what their priorities are.

    The padres were awful and the As were out of nowhere as for huge performances from tons of young players…..if the yanks get huge impacts from their farm system then sure they’ll be fine
    —————-

    Those two teams show you that the money is irrelevant. Near same payroll, and total opposite results. My point was just that they can field a team and sign Cano and Hughes, if they want.

    The future of the organization is dependent on those kids now. We’ll see what happens. Oh, and as I’ve said before, I wouldn’t sign Cano if I were Cashman.

  64. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 10:55 am

    “Those two teams show you that the money is irrelevant. Near same payroll, and total opposite results. My point was just that they can field a team and sign Cano and Hughes, if they want.”

    Sure they can field a team….the point is they could end up like the Padres though if all the prospects don’t pan out

  65. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 10:58 am

    The Yankees mistake, in my judgment, knowing they were going to have a salary problem, was not to deal off Swisher, Granderson and others as they were approaching free agency and they still had good value.

    I understand they didn’t in an effort to win, and I appreciate the effort as a fan. However, the win this year concept has left them with a problem going forward.

  66. BIG AL January 2nd, 2013 at 10:58 am

    Trading for Stanton should be a top priority. He’ll give you much middle of the order power, plus a good BA. This would help make up for losing Granderson’s HR’s, give the team a young stud for many years, and very affordable.

    I’ll wait to see how Phil pitches this season, but, if he’s just average, or not much better than last season, I’d low ball him, and let him go, or trade him at the AS break.

    I have faith the young pitchers we have will step up, and be a better choice than Phil, both on the field, and in terms of salary.

  67. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 10:59 am

    Sure they can field a team….the point is they could end up like the Padres though if all the prospects don’t pan out
    ———-

    Or they could end up like the Red Sox if they sign the wrong free agents to big contracts. The money you pay the players does not have a direct correlation to their future production.

    Of course. If their players suck, the team will suck. Seems obvious.

  68. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 11:01 am

    austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 10:58 am
    The Yankees mistake, in my judgment, knowing they were going to have a salary problem, was not to deal off Swisher, Granderson and others as they were approaching free agency and they still had good value.

    I understand they didn’t in an effort to win, and I appreciate the effort as a fan. However, the win this year concept has left them with a problem going forward.
    ————

    The Yankees were a better team than the Tigers. They should have been in the World Series. Had they won the World Series, the next two seasons on a tightened budget would be well worth it.

  69. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:02 am

    “Of course. If their players suck, the team will suck. Seems obvious”

    Spending money AND developing players is the best way to be good

  70. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 11:04 am

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:02 am
    “Of course. If their players suck, the team will suck. Seems obvious”

    Spending money AND developing players is the best way to be good
    ———

    Sure, and let’s hope they get back to spending a little more after 2014. Hopefully they make some good decisions too. Like…not signing Robinson Cano…

  71. AAA January 2nd, 2013 at 11:06 am

    Or they could end up like the Red Sox if they sign the wrong free agents to big contracts. The money you pay the players does not have a direct correlation to their future production

    ======================================

    Do we really need to look as far away as Boston to see that money you pay a player does not have a direct correlation to his future production?

  72. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 11:10 am

    “It is one thing to expect the Yankees to buy all the good players, but in 2014, if one simply looks at the payroll obligaitons, including arbitration eligible payers, they are in a huge financial hole unless a number of rookies can contribute significantly.”

    austin – the alpha and the omega. There’s no magic wand that can change it. So it’s going to be a matter of wait and see.

    “Next year the Yankees will be spending like drunken sailors down by the wharves. They won’t have the money to go elswhere.”

    Fact. It is what it is. When they made some of these deals, they had no way of knowing what changes would come about in the CBA or anything else.

    There’s a ton of Monday-morning QBing in any sport, and it’s easy to say “I told you they should have done thus and so!” but since there are always opposite ends of the “thus and so” spectrum, it’s usually a matter of happenstance and nothing more that one side or the other ends up being “correct”.

    When the experts pick a team to go all the way and the team doesn’t do it, it’s usually because the players didn’t come though the way they were expected to, not because the experts got it wrong or the lucky “thus and so’ers” necssarily had it right. Witness the 2011 Sux, witness the 2012 Yanks.

    When you get down to it, Cashman actually did a pretty damned good job (even though he was in a public nightmare). The things the Yankees could not have anticipated are the things that probably did them in, not the fact that they were mising an impact bat!

    So what we can hope for is that they make good choices within the financial parameters in which they working. The Yankees as they stand are hardly chopped liver. A little here and there can make all the difference in the world.

  73. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 11:12 am

    “Do we really need to look as far away as Boston to see that money you pay a player does not have a direct correlation to his future production?”

    It’s apparent that not everybody here gets it because the mantra from some fans is always “spend, spend, spend”. (Even though, of course, it’s not their money!)

  74. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:12 am

    “Sure, and let’s hope they get back to spending a little more after 2014. Hopefully they make some good decisions too. Like…not signing Robinson Cano…”

    If the Yankees would forget the budget and realize that they’ll be paying for decline years with Cano to keep him and be ok with that….meaning they’ll just eat it as the cost of doing business…..then they should sign him…..but if they are gonna stick to the budget and hold his contract over the teams head like they have with Arods then they should absolutely let him go

  75. AAA January 2nd, 2013 at 11:20 am

    Fact. It is what it is. When they made some of these deals, they had no way of knowing what changes would come about in the CBA or anything else

    ===============================

    A key point, which I try to bring up from time to time. Rules were changed on the Yankees after a lot of key financial decisions had already been made. Decisions that can’t be undone.

  76. mick January 2nd, 2013 at 11:22 am

    teixeiramark25 New Year’s resolution #1: Be the first MLB player to wear Breath-Right Nasal Strips during games.
    =========================
    sounds like tex is selling these now…

  77. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:23 am

    “Fact. It is what it is. When they made some of these deals, they had no way of knowing what changes would come about in the CBA or anything else”

    When have the rules ever changed to benefit the Yankees? They get harder on them every CBA so while they didnt know specifically…..they could have had an idea

  78. mick January 2nd, 2013 at 11:24 am

    Didn’t Hal push for this “soft cap” of 189?

  79. RayVT January 2nd, 2013 at 11:25 am

    I think 2013 will decide a lot about what the Yankees do in 2014. Obviously! What I am trying to say is the youngsters will be given a lot of opportunities to succeed in 2013. Romine, Adams, Mustelier, Mesa, Corban, Nunez, Warren, Betances, Marshall, Montgomery, Pineda & others. How they fare in short stints may allow for longer play in both 2013 & 2014. It will start in ST & go from there. A lot of spot starts, long relief & short relief roles will come up in 2013 to truly evaluate the pitchers & likewise injuries & backup spots will determine how the position players turn out.

    I think the Yanks will trade Boone Logan & depend on Rapada, Cabral & Rondon for LOOGY. I also think if Hughes has a big year & Yanks decide they want both Cano & Hughes they will sign them. It may mandate some trades like CC or Tex to do so, but I’m not sure anything is out of the realm of possibilities.

    One scenario that plays in my thoughts is trading both CC, Granderson (or Gardner) & Logan for prospects & add several Yankee top prospects in a 4-way trade (or multiple trades) to get both Upton & Stanton. Maybe it is more a dream than a reality but it is a thought.

  80. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:25 am

    mick says:
    January 2, 2013 at 11:24 am
    Didn’t Hal push for this “soft cap” of 189?

    Not publically….but he voted for it and I bet he loves it

  81. AAA January 2nd, 2013 at 11:26 am

    When have the rules ever changed to benefit the Yankees? They get harder on them every CBA so while they didnt know specifically…..they could have had an idea

    ============================================

    While this is true, I would not rule out the possibility that Hal S is perfectly fine with the terms therein.

  82. Doreen January 2nd, 2013 at 11:26 am

    Trisha -

    Happy New Year to you. 2012 can’t disappear in the rear view fast enough for me. Just not a good year on the whole.

    I continued to be in contact with GB7 even during my hiatus from Lohud, and he was a good and caring person. My hope is that when his time came he was not in pain, and that he was surrounded by his loved ones.

    austinmac -

    I guess I just couldn’t rest until I knew for sure. But I think it would have been a blast had GB shown up here one day to yell me down for prematurely reporting his demise!

  83. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 11:28 am

    I was hoping Tex’ resolution would be to up his average. Instead we will wait to see if that exciting nasal strip moment will happen.

    I very much disagree that the Yankees were blindsided by the new agreement. These things don’t fall from the sky. They certainly knew in the last year or two the basic structure. I agree they didn’t know details when AROD or Tex were signed, but they knew they would be penalized for going over the cap.

    What has changed is the willingness to pay luxury tax. As a fan, I wish they would blow it off. I get that it isn’t my money.

  84. The Return of Stoneburner January 2nd, 2013 at 11:29 am

    Onley on the top 10 infields in baseball – Yanks:

    5. New York Yankees
    Robinson Cano is the game’s best second baseman and if the Contract Year theory applies in his case — he’s eligible for free agency in the fall — he could contend for the MVP Award, again. Around him, there are stars capable of great things, even as older players: Derek Jeter led the majors in hits last season, at age 38. Mark Teixeira had 52 extra-base hits in 123 games in what was perceived to be a down year for him in 2012. Only two seasons ago, Kevin Youkilis posted a .411 on-base percentage for the Red Sox. And sometime in midseason, the Yankees believe, Alex Rodriguez will be back from his surgery.

    The X factor: The ravages of age; the Yankees are hanging on the physical cliff. Jeter is coming back from a broken leg and as he has noted himself with some humor, he has reached the age when everybody wonders, year to year, if he can still play. Teixeira turns 33 in April and his OPS has dropped each of the last four seasons:

    2008: .962
    2009: .948
    2010: .846
    2011: .835
    2012: .807

    There was a difference of about 400 OPS points in Youkilis’s home/road splits last season, which was a red flag for some teams. Given that Rodriguez is 37 and has now had major surgery on both hips, the Yankees really have no idea if he can be an effective player anymore.

  85. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:30 am

    “While this is true, I would not rule out the possibility that Hal S is perfectly fine with the terms therein.”

    I think Hal loves the new CBA

  86. The Return of Stoneburner January 2nd, 2013 at 11:30 am

    1. David Price agreed to terms, for a bit over $10 million. The assumption within the industry is that the Rays are going to trade Price sometime in the next calendar year, a perception that will only be reinforced by this latest one-year agreement.

    Onley, ESPN

  87. DONNYBROOK January 2nd, 2013 at 11:31 am

    Well, 1st off, the Yankees HAVE spent $$$ this offseason. Retaining Kuroda, Pettitte, and MO took a lotta cabbage outta the coffer. Therefore 2nd , we can NOT assume the Yankees are gonna turn into an organization that looks like Charlie Finley East. Are there free agents that we believe they shoulda signed? Sure, but that occurs Every offseason. We all got used to George breaking the bank\team payroll every offseason. Obviously, that ain’t gonna occur under Hal’s reign, but I also believe Hal will Not ruin a good thing. He will buy the hay\players to feed his cash cow. Hal is cheap, but he’s Not stupid. Some of you guys need to come down off the ledge, and realize that a team payroll of roughly $189 Mill will field a Very good team. What you should be focusing on are the “advisors” that are recommending trades like Montero or Granderson, signing stiffs like Andruw Jones, Nick Johnson, etc, or demoting young bats like Nunez.

  88. The Return of Stoneburner January 2nd, 2013 at 11:31 am

    4. The Seattle Mariners have called the Los Angeles Dodgers repeatedly about Andre Ethier, and while the Dodgers’ intention is to open the season with him as their right fielder, they have told other teams all winter that they’re always willing to listen to offers. As of now, the Mariners haven’t been moved to present any, sources say.

    Onley, ESPN

  89. DONNYBROOK January 2nd, 2013 at 11:41 am

    I believe we have some of our current Congressmen blogging here. They seem to feel you can Spend your way outta Every problem.

    – DONNYBROOK GENERAL PRINCIPLES – (continued)

    (13) USING YOUR NOODLE EXCEEDS USING YOUR WALLET.

  90. Shame Spencer January 2nd, 2013 at 11:42 am

    When is the time appropriate to stop waiting and start seeing..?

    The Yanks had an opportunity.. many opportunities.. last off season to help them in 2013, 2014, and beyond. They did nothing.

  91. 4 NYY January 2nd, 2013 at 11:44 am

    Yanks won’t let Cano walk, neither will they sign him. That leaves a trade.

    $ 189 million ! That’s the ball game.

    Anything we get from A-Rod from here on out will be a plus. One or two more years, IMO

  92. 4 NYY January 2nd, 2013 at 11:45 am

    DONNYBROOK January 2nd, 2013 at 11:41 am
    I believe we have some of our current Congressmen blogging here. They seem to feel you can Spend your way outta Every problem.

    – DONNYBROOK GENERAL PRINCIPLES – (continued)

    (13) USING YOUR NOODLE EXCEEDS USING YOUR WALLET.

    ================================

    How good is our scouting dept. ?

  93. Rich in NJ January 2nd, 2013 at 11:46 am

    “I hope Hals budget gives”

    His polo pony and caviar budget?

  94. Rich in NJ January 2nd, 2013 at 11:50 am

    “The Yankees were a better team than the Tigers. ”

    Going forward, I would take the Tigers’ roster over the Yankees’ roster.

  95. Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Axisa is saying at RAB that player options are NOT counted as guaranteed money and that the option year is treated as a new contract with a separate AAV……if this is true then that helps a bit with Jeter for 2014

    Where is he saying this? Team options count as single season contracts once picked up by the team. Player options are guaranteed, this isn’t up for debate its in the CBA.

  96. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Rich,

    I draw the line in asking Hal to cut his polo and caviar expenses. A man has to live.

  97. Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 11:53 am

    Everyone needs to stop pointing to some low payroll team that does well or makes the playoffs as evidence that payroll is not necessary to win. Stop it. Its not proving anything. Show me a team that consistently makes the playoffs with such a low payroll. The A’s had to miss the playoffs 5 out of the past 6 seasons to finally get to this point. Wow, what hope to aspire to! Maybe the Yankees can one day miss the playoffs in 80% of the seasons they play!

    The A’s best run came when they had multiple all-star home grown / traded for players and that was 12 years ago.

    The only team that is consistently winning with a low payroll is the Rays, and even they miss the playoffs.

    What Yankee fan wants their teams chance of going to the postseason to diminish?

  98. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:53 am

    “Where is he saying this? Team options count as single season contracts once picked up by the team. Player options are guaranteed, this isn’t up for debate its in the CBA.”

    Comments…..I think he’s wrong and posted the part in the CBA that explains it

  99. AAA January 2nd, 2013 at 11:53 am

    The Yanks had an opportunity.. many opportunities.. last off season to help them in 2013, 2014, and beyond. They did nothing.

    ========================================

    Yes and no. I think it’s fair to say that injuries to Banuelos and Pineda really hurt them. It’s probably safe to say that those two were part of a planned youthful, inexpensive rotation behind Sabathia by 2014. Still might be, but things haven’t panned out to this point.

    That said, one could certainly argue that trading Granderson last year, when he had real value and/or renegotiating with Cano a couple years back to get a more reasonable contract than he’s in line for next offseason would have been prudent.

  100. Rich in NJ January 2nd, 2013 at 11:53 am

    austin

    Times are tough for everyone…

  101. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 11:54 am

    I think there is close to a 0% chance they deal Cano

  102. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 11:54 am

    Spending money does not guarantee winning. However, spending money allows mistakes to be remedied and holes to be filled. Make no mistake a very important reason the Yankees have been in the playoffs annually is their ability to spend.

    Teams can certainly win on occasion with low payrolls, but only if thing break right.

    I have never been an apologist about the Yankee advantage. Why should anyone be when they are spending their own money?

  103. Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 11:55 am

    Money doesn’t guarantee you a postseason berth in any given season, but evidence is strong that it guarantees you near unlimited contention as long as you’re willing to spend.

    The Yankees have had the highest payroll by a wide margin from about 2002 onward, after having a #1 payroll + 5 hall of fame quality rookies. That is a juggernaut, born from payroll.

    Other teams spend a lot & miss the playoffs, but they are not spending anywhere near the Yankees, and they are losing their playoff spot to other high payroll teams. Money helps. How can any of you watch the Yankees & not see otherwise?

  104. DONNYBROOK January 2nd, 2013 at 11:57 am

    The Rays are missing the playoffs due to the fact they compete in the AL East. If they were in any other Division, playing the teams in that division 18 times, they would be “in like Flynn”. This is exactly what I mean by “using your noodle”.

  105. Rich in NJ January 2nd, 2013 at 11:59 am

    Plus being a low or even loser budget team requires a player development and acquistion skillset that the Yankees have never demonstrated that they have.

  106. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 12:04 pm

    Jerkface,

    Who’s advocating for the Yankees to spend only $50M on the team? I’m making an argument and response to complaints that we only have $40M to spend on the rest of our roster for one season.

    One season.

    The point is that you CAN field a competitive team with that money. I’m not advocating that we do that. I’m just sick of reading the chicken littles here.

    Oh, and The Giants spent 38% less than the Yankees did last season. They’ve won the World Series two out of three years. Seems consistent to me.

  107. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 12:04 pm

    Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 11:55 am
    Money doesn’t guarantee you a postseason berth in any given season, but evidence is strong that it guarantees you near unlimited contention as long as you’re willing to spend.
    ———

    Where’s the evidence?

  108. DONNYBROOK January 2nd, 2013 at 12:06 pm

    Yanks shoulda gone after Revere. With the speedy Gardner beginning to gray, this acquisition woulda fit nicely. Bourn hanging out there in the cold, is a good example of why once a speedster nears that 30yr old speed bump, you better trade him in ASAP.

  109. Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    Where’s the evidence?

    You’re rooting for it.

  110. Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    Look at every playoff for the past 12 years. The majority of the teams that are in the playoffs are in the top 10 of payroll. Outside of 2008 the #1 payroll team has made the playoffs each year.

  111. austinmac January 2nd, 2013 at 12:11 pm

    The Yankees are the evidence of Jerkface’s statement. It sure hasn’t been player development.

  112. Against All Odds January 2nd, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    The Yankees were a better team than the Tigers

    —————————————

    No they weren’t

  113. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    Jerkface January 2nd, 2013 at 12:07 pm
    Where’s the evidence?

    You’re rooting for it.
    ———

    I appreciate that, but what other team has gone big and had similar results? Phillies, Red Sox, and Mets have ALL crumbled.

  114. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    The Tigers were better suited to win in the playoffs

  115. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 2nd, 2013 at 12:27 pm

    “When is the time appropriate to stop waiting and start seeing..?”

    If you are panic prone, there is never an appropriate time. (statment of fact, not saying you personally are.) It’s very easy to look at the bottom line and if it isn’t what you want it to be, point many fingers. But if you realize that life is what happens to you when you are busy making other plans, you also realize that many unforseen contingencies in the course of a season add to the bottom line – which is why I pointed out the 2011 Sux and the 2012 Yankees.

    “The Yanks had an opportunity.. many opportunities.. last off season to help them in 2013, 2014, and beyond. They did nothing.”

    (Are you calling “last off season” the one preceding the 2012 season or the 2013 season? Obviously if you mean this year, the off season isn’t over.)

    If you’re talking about the one preceding 2012, best I can say is that in your opinion, they did nothing. Without getting into a long and protracted discussion I will say that they have tended to operate more as an organization that tries to satisfy the “immediate need fan” – and I’d say you are definitely one of those, despite your talking about 2013, 2014 and beyond. If this is about Montero (not sure if it is because I don’t remember your take) then I’d say they concentrated on pitching.

    I guess the point is that your thinking that they’ve done nothing doesn’t necessarily make it fact. I’d say that if Hughes and Nova had turned in flawless seasons and Pineda hadn’t gone down, you might be thinking they did exactly what they had to do since all are young enough players. Maybe you wouldn’t, who knows. It’s not a secret that they concentrate on pitching.

    Maybe their “plan” is to bring some of the young talent up and mix it with the current talent rather than to go out and buy players at every position. That’s a plan that I personally would endorse. But I’m not one to lament winning the AL East and not winning the entire postseason. It’s very hard to integrate youth and win the world series the same season, and winning the world series is something that many Yankee fans see as their right.

    We come from very different places with a lot of this stuff. I know you realize that. Waiting and watching things develop is part of the excitement of a season for me. Not outcome is ever assured. The Yankees have talent. If the talent does its job, the Yankees should be fine. And that is always the wildcard – waiting to see what kinds of seasons the players turn in.

    I deal well with the unknown. Maybe I like living on the edge, who knows.

    :)

    Hope this answer is at least satisfactory, as I know you aren’t always pleased if you feel I have not answered sufficiently – (even when I think I have) – and I do the best I can based on the time constraints I have, which is why I sometimes do not immediately respond to follow-ups. I don’t announce when I have posted the last for a while, I just leave when I have to, which isn’t going to be too long after this post is finished! But in the words of Arno – and to the dismay of some (many?) – I’ll be back!!!

  116. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 12:28 pm

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 12:26 pm
    The Tigers were better suited to win in the playoffs
    ———-

    Why? The Yankees had a better pitching staff.

    The Yankees also won more games over the season.

    We had a bad week. The Tigers pitching wasn’t even good, if you were watching. Verlander was frustratingly mortal and we still lost to him.

  117. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    “Why? The Yankees had a better pitching staff.”

    No they didn’t….and the Tigers had a better offense…..Yanks pen was better but by October 2012 the Tigers were better and it showed

  118. RadioKev January 2nd, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    blake January 2nd, 2013 at 12:37 pm
    “Why? The Yankees had a better pitching staff.”

    No they didn’t….and the Tigers had a better offense…..Yanks pen was better but by October 2012 the Tigers were better and it showed
    ———–

    They were better so far as they won the games. They are absolutely not a better team during the 2012 season, and they were rightfully killed by the Giants because they were not a very good team.

  119. ajr91205 January 2nd, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    The Yankees really need Hughes to pitch well this year. Their rotation just isn’t as strong as it should be, and there aren’t really that many good options for that the yankees could aquire from free agency. Since they do have a budget limit that they are trying to get under, its smart to try and trust Hughes instead of wasting tons of money on other pitchers like they did with Pineda last year. I have faith in Hughes, and I hope he has a great season next year, even if they have to get rid of him after.

  120. blake January 2nd, 2013 at 1:21 pm

    “They were better so far as they won the games. They are absolutely not a better team during the 2012 season, and they were rightfully killed by the Giants because they were not a very good team.”

    I’m not sure what happened in the WS….but the yanks were a .500 team for awhile in the 2nd half…..the Tigers added Sanchez and got stronger in the 2 nd half

  121. JRC January 2nd, 2013 at 5:14 pm

    Wow, hard to believe that ARod, Sabathia and Texeira make up 42% of the salary cap this year, that is a total of 73.5 mil. Add Derek and AJ Burnett and those five alone comes up to 98, million for this year. AJ comes off next year and Derek goes down, but you have Cano, Grandy and Hughes looming for huge contracts.

    I am still of the opinion that the Yankees have to rid themselves of A.(albatross) Rod or hire Kate Hudson as his girlfrien as she was in 2009.


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