State of the organization: Second base
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 11, 2013 
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If you go to MLB.com and filter the offensive statistics to show only those players listed as second basemen, you’ll find six players with an OPS of .750 or better, three players with an OPS above .770, two with an OPS above .800 and one with an OPS above .900. You’ll find that there is, quite simply, no second baseman in the game quite like Robinson Cano, and he stands atop a group that falls off quickly and drastically. Which makes this position especially fascinating for the Yankees.
Robinson Cano
Signed through 2013
The Yankees best player is marching toward free agency, and it remains to be seen whether the Yankees can re-sign him and still meet their financial goals for next season. In the short term, Cano is the most certain aspect of the roster. He just turned 3o, he’s been top six in MVP voting three years in a row and he’s coming off the highest OPS and most home runs of his career. He is, without question, the best second baseman in baseball; both productive and durable. The Yankees really have no backup plan for this season, and the only real question is whether Cano will be back. If he hits the open market, he will most certainly be next winter’s top free agent, and agent Scott Boras isn’t likely to accept a hometown discount. He could be the face of the franchise through the end of the decade, or he could be gone at the end of the year.
On the verge
Here’s the mistake I made a few weeks ago: I talked to a Yankees official about David Adams without saying much about Corban Joseph. The Yankees official quickly redirected my attention — yes, the Yankees believe Adams can hit, but they also believe the power Joseph showed last season is both real and repeatable. Having never hit more than six homers in a season, Joseph jumped to Triple-A early last year and hit 13 in 84 games. He had a .266/.366/.474 that made him the team’s No. 3 hitter for a few games (he mostly hit second). Although he played some second base earlier in his career, Joseph has stayed at second the past two seasons, and it seems likely that he’ll open this season as the everyday guy back in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre waiting for a door to open. It’s also worth mentioning that Adams hasn’t given up second base entirely. Although he shifted to third base late last season, he still got regular playing time at second during the Arizona Fall League and could also be a viable alternative this season.
Deeper in the system
For whatever reason, I haven’t done a lot of searching for prospect rankings this winter, but my guess is that a lot of Yankees lists have Angelo Gumbs as the top infielder in the system. He’s at least a year or two behind Joseph and Adams, and he’s too far away to be considered polished, but there does seem to be some real upside. Gumbs was the team’s second-round pick in 2010 — picked one round after Cito Culver and two ahead of Mason Williams – and he’s generally gotten good reviews for his interesting mix of tools and athleticism. He played only a partial season last year because of a torn triceps, but he still managed to steal 26 bases and hit .272/.320/.432 with seven homers. There are other lower-level second baseman who put up good numbers last season — Ali Castillo, Jerison Lopez — but the newcomer to mention here is fifth-round pick Rob Refsnyder. He was an outfielder at the University of Arizona was named Most Outstanding Player at the College World Series, but he hits for more average than power, so the Yankees are using him at second base, which was his position in high school.
Moving pieces
Second base is a position prime for adjustments, and Refsnyder is only the most recent example. Cano spent a lot of time at shortstop and third base early in his career before settling in at second base. Gumbs was a shortstop when he was drafted and immediately went to second. The lowest levels of the Yankees minor league system have a lot of middle infielders who have been intriging for one reason or another but have to really establish themselves. Utility type Anderson Feliz is primarily a second baseman, and he remains an interesting prospect despite a somewhat lost season. Claudio Custodio is primarily a shortstop who hit in 2011, didn’t hit in 2012 and has some experience at second. Even corner man Ronnier Mustelier has some experience at second base. The guy who stands out as a potential moving part is shortstop Austin Aune, the Yankees second-round pick in 2012 who’s being tested at shortstop but might not have the glove for the position. Outfield might be a more likely destination than second base, but it’s too early to know much for certain.
What to watch
Cano’s contract situation is one of the most pressing issues facing the Yankees. If the Yankees manage to re-sign Cano, then everything else about second base becomes secondary at best. Having Cano locked up well into the decade would minimize the Yankees need at second base. It could — in theory — prompt the team to shift Gumbs to another position, and make Adams or Joseph into a more flexible utility player. If the Yankees can’t re-sign Cano, then they might have to try to replace his offensive production elsewhere, while falling into a second base situation similar to most every other team in baseball. With a good season in Triple-A, Adams and/or Joseph could be knocking on the door if second base does become an opening.
Associated Press photo; headshots of Cano, Joseph, Gumbs and Refsnyder
I really like these state of the org posts
I agree. Thanks, Chad.
Awesome picture of Robbie.
And yes I agree with Rich and JF, nice work Chad.
Given that the Yankees actually have potentially viable options for the position both now and in the long view, AND given that Cano may be a guy whose full value offensively is always in question AND given that the Yankees want to operate on a budget,
I’d not re-sign Cano.
The thing that gives me pause is that for a team on a budget, they can’t make the core of their offense a guy who is potentially worth half as much as he should be offensively.
how is Cano’s offensive value a question? he’s OPS’d over .870, hit 25HR+, and hit over .300 for four straight years. Cano’s offense is the last question that i have about him.
Cano’s offensive value would be in question on the back-half of a very long term deal.
- IF IT’S MY CALL -
(1) TRADE CANO ASAP – “Face of the franchise” = clap trap. He’s NO Leader. See 2012 ALCS.
(2) INSTALL NUNEZ AS 2B – Most of his errors are on hurried throws across the diamond. Playing 2B almost eliminates this entirely. If Yanks get an established 2B in a package for Cano, then Nunez becomes Utility Player.
If Jack Z would give you Hultzen/Walker and Franklin for Cano would you do it?
how is Cano’s offensive value a question? he’s OPS’d over .870, hit 25HR+, and hit over .300 for four straight years. Cano’s offense is the last question that i have about him.
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Well its based on advanced statistics, but first I’ll state the case traditionally. Cano is an elite 2bman, but he isn’t an elite hitter overall. His plate discipline isn’t good enough. It is all too easy for him to fall into ruts where he gets himself out, struggles with risp, or whatever. If the Yankees were wanting to be the Yankees, I’d re-sign him no question because he is an awesome player, fun to watch, and is very good at a position of scarcity.
Now the advanced metric is RE24 which is used in conjunction with Batting Runs to determine how a player does in each individual PA. So for example if you look at Cano’s slash line, you see he has like 200 hits, 40 2b, 30 HR, 40 BB, 80K or whatever. Batting Runs looks at this in a completely neutral respect. It simply assigns value to each of these based on the average outcome of every baseball game. So a HR is worth 1 run and 2B is worth .5 runs or whatever. RE24 looks at each of these outcomes AND the number of outs, and the number of base runners, and the end result of each and assigns it a value based on what actually happened.
As it happens, Cano’s RE24 is like half as much as his BR. Guys like Jeter & A-rod are about equal and Carlos Beltran is like way above his own BR. Its kind of a measure of ‘importance’. So A-rod and Jeter do about as well as expected, Beltran overperforms (but whats new with this guy? He owns), and Cano does worse than expected.
The only year he has had a positive ratio is 2011.
I don’t mean about questioning Cano’s ability to put some up some good stats, though long term yea obv as he gets older, but the actual value of what he is doing.
blake January 11th, 2013 at 3:18 pm
If Jack Z would give you Hultzen/Walker and Franklin for Cano would you do it?
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Is Franklin the top ranked guy? I know nothing about the M’s prospects.
i misunderstood that. his offensive value would be a question toward the end of his contract. i think six years gets it done. no one in their right mind would offer seven or eight for a 30 year old second baseman.
i am in the camp that the Yankees need to keep Cano. hes the only impact position player they have that isn’t headed to the proverbial glue factory (A-Rod, Tex, Ichiro, possibly Jeter). they can live with a big contract for Cano as long as they don’t hand out another A-Rod contract and soon Jeter won’t be able to name his price anymore.
“Is Franklin the top ranked guy? I know nothing about the M’s prospects.”
I think he’s their 5th or 6th ranked prospect….SS and 2B but most see him as 2B being his best spot. Switch hitter that’s better from the left side…..could be ready for the bigs in 2013….looks like a solid regular type guy……kinda begs the question what they’ll do with Ackley?
Bottom line, I do NOT pay a guy $25 Mill per for at Least 7yrs, that is (1) over 30 yrs old, and (2) just choked on the bone in the ALCS.
I want Montero back in any package for Cano, even if they end up trading him again.
That trade would hurt for 2013….but they could always still sign Cano as a FA and it’d give them two really good prospects. Tough call….don’t know if I’d do it or not.
kinda begs the question what they’ll do with Ackley?
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Play him in the outfield.
I’d want Montero back too…..
Hultzen, Franklin, Montero for Cano and Granderson! punt 2013
Eh it’s hard decision but I resign cano during the season not do the usual yankee wait until end of season crap! Leave David Adams at 3b we need a 3b soon maybe we can get lucky n arod will retire soon lol. I don’t know how bichette jr progress at3b is going but Adams at 3b I like .
Unless Cano instructs him to do otherwise, like Weaver, I suspect taht Boras will not agree to re-sign Cano before he reaches free agency, unless you totally blow him away, which could mean $225 to $250m over 9 to 10 years (in that ballpark, I would think). I mean, that’s the way he has historically operated.
Very good post. Some power from Joseph–or should I call him Corban–would very nice. The scouts seem to like Gumbs a lot. I hope they work him at short.
Unless Cano instructs him to do otherwise, like Weaver, I suspect taht Boras will not agree to re-sign Cano before he reaches free agency, unless you totally blow him away, which could mean $225 to $250m over 9 to 10 years (in that ballpark, I would think). I mean, that’s the way he has historically operated
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Don’t think anyone is going 9-10 years for Cano. Probably 7 tops. Yankees big mistake was waiting. Had they addressed this when his option years (’12 & ’13) came up, they probably could have gotten him for 7/$140 or so and be done paying him by the time he’s 35.
“Play him in the outfield.”
they could…..he better hit better though as he’s barely hit good enough so far to play 2B
I think Cano gets 8/200 plus from somebody
“Don’t think anyone is going 9-10 years for Cano. Probably 7 tops.”
Even if you’re ultimately correct, you would be asking his agent to forego testing the limits of the market. That in and of itself often has a price.
they could…..he better hit better though as he’s barely hit good enough so far to play 2B
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They haven’t had an OF hit good enough to play 2nd base in awhile.
This has actually already been talked about by the M’s. By 2015, , maybe sooner, if he’s realizing his offensive potential, he’ll probably be doing it in the outfield.
The Dodgers are liable to hand Cano a blank check. Trade ‘em Now.
“This has actually already been talked about by the M’s. By 2015, , maybe sooner, if he’s realizing his offensive potential, he’ll probably be doing it in the outfield.”
probably….if he hits….I’m surprised he’s struggled as much as he has to be honest….I thought he’d hit the ground running in the big leagues. It’s a tough game though and that’s a tough ball park.
If Cano has a good 2013 then I think there will be just too many teams fighting for him for him to get anything less than 200 million or real close to it……the Dodgers, Tigers, Angels, Nats, Mets, Cubs…..I mean they all will want Cano. Boras will pit all those teams against the Yanks and dare them to outbid everybody.
I think Cano gets 8/200 plus from somebody
======================
Obviously can’t rule it out, but I think teams are wising up to those types of contracts, especially for guys who have hit the THREE OH. They still happen obviously, but there’s already tinge of regret in deals like Pujols, Teixeira, Gonzalez and more than a tinge in others (Crawford). We’ll see.
Right. I’m still waiting for one Yankee to say: “I’m making far more money than future offspring’s offspring’s will ever need. I will take less to be where I am happy.”
Other teams’ players do it.
Other teams’ players do it
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Like who?
“Obviously can’t rule it out, but I think teams are wising up to those types of contracts, especially for guys who have hit the THREE OH.”
I think that is happening a little yea….but I also think Cano is regarded as one of the premier players in the game and his agent is very good with elite clients…..the Dodgers are crazy…..all it take is for them to throw out an 8/200 offer and say ok Yanks beat that.
“I’m making far more money than future offspring’s offspring’s will ever need. I will take less to be where I am happy.”
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Bernie Williams did it.
I don’t know how we can say teams are wising up. Some of those deals were handed out within the last 2 years. Guys like Votto have been signed for a bazillion years. Cano will get 7 or 8 years. He isn’t in the pujols/a-rod category where 10 is likely.
“Like who?”
Weaver, Kinsler, Kemp, Longoria, CarGo, etc
granted none of those guys were free agents….but neither is Cano and they chose to do extensions for less than they could get on the market most likely….
I think it’s time for SLADE HEATHCOTT to get a new photo already.
The photo featured in the other post just makes me laugh. The guy certainly can not
look like that anymore.
If anything, change the photo for good luck.
“Bernie Williams did it.”
To some degree, yes, but that’s a long time ago. And iirc, it was “just” a few million.
The analogy is better with regard to what you said earlier:
“Yankees big mistake was waiting. Had they addressed this when his option years (’12 & ’13) came up,”
They could have signed Bernie for around $50m and ended up paying him over $80m. That was one thing when they were big spenders. It’s unacceptable if they want to employ a new business model.
Rich in NJ January 11th, 2013 at 3:47 pm
Right. I’m still waiting for one Yankee to say: “I’m making far more money than future offspring’s offspring’s will ever need. I will take less to be where I am happy.”
Other teams’ players do it.
—————
The Yanks are worth more than any other franchise, so they’re just trying to get their piece in the short time (relatively speaking) their playing for the team.
blake – Would the M’s even want Cano? Knowing they’d lose him, I mean.
granted none of those guys were free agents….but neither is Cano and they chose to do extensions for less than they could get on the market most likely
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Free agency makes the difference, and while I advocated extending Cano after the 2011 season, we shouldn’t forget that the Yankees did lock him up to what amounted to a 6 year, $57M contract for prime seasons, saving themselves some decent money in the process.
They could have signed Bernie for around $50m and ended up paying him over $80m. That was one thing when they were big spenders. It’s unacceptable if they want to employ a new business model.
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Agreed. This is something they really need to reconsider, especially if they expect to keep payroll at or around the $190M range.
Yogi is joining twitter….I’m sure mick is devastated
“The Yanks are worth more than any other franchise, so they’re just trying to get their piece in the short time (relatively speaking) their playing for the team.”
Then the Yankees have to start letting some of these guys walk in order to reset expectations.
Hal’s right that in the abstract you shouldn’t need to spend $220m in order to win (if you run your team smartly, you can probably slice $50m or more off of that figure), but if he is serious, he has to be willing to walk the walk, and stop pretending about the kind of team they can put on the field.
What he also needs to understand is that when you already have $100m tied up, and possibly $120m if Jeter and Cano insist on, and get, max money for 2014, they actually do need to spend $220m for now.
‘we shouldn’t forget that the Yankees did lock him up to what amounted to a 6 year, $57M contract for prime seasons, saving themselves some decent money in the process.”
sure which is why it’s a bit curious that they didn’t try and do that again…..unless he just wouldn’t have any of it….or unless they feel the risk was too great…..
The “Uptown” signs that have been a fixture at the Diamondbacks home, Chase Field, have been taken down. Justin Upton is as good as gone — Yanks should pursue aggressively.
http://www.azcentral.com/sport.....messy.html
Yesterday someone posted a tweet saying that the signs coming down was by previous, mutual agreement and not to read anything into it.
Of course that was a couple hours before it came out that they made a deal to trade him to a team on his no-trade list without telling him and that they left a withered snake carcass on his pillow.
Maybe they’re trying to tell him something,
Very subtle message indeed to Upton.
Nick, and that mutual agreement may have been that the team would seek a new home for him this offseason.
I don’t see how the DBacks can bring him back next year without risking having a disgruntled superstar on the roster.
Upton will get traded and 2 years from now everyone will be saying…..man why didn’t we try harder.
Blake, I agree. I think the guy is a superstar in the making. Put him in the right scenario and he would thrive. I just hope it isn’t in Texas.
Upton is the type of acquisition that would erase the bad will that has festered this offseason during the march to 189.
Then they should really look to see what they can get for Granderson that they can then send to AZ because their own assets are probably too far away.
Yogi is joining twitter….I’m sure mick is devastated
======================
I could deal with Yogi on Twitter- he’s old school.
Not a self-promoter.
I think the Yankees will sign Cano at almost any cost. If someone like the Dodgers makes an even more ridiculous offer, they might let him go, but I think they are preparing to beat practically any other offer.
What is Upton’s problem with the DBacks?
Hal doesn’t want players with baggage.
I also think the Yankees will sign Cano. It looks like Arod & possibly Jeter are getting closer to their expiration dates as viable players for the Yankees and the team isn’t going to go all young and build around Tex. He’s a bust and not a franchise player.
They’ll pay Cano and they’ll pay him dearly.
The only thing they can’t account for is if the Dodgers, Rangers, Tigers, etc. show him the love right out of the gate and turn his head. The way Cashman operates with his close to the vest nonsense and not bending/breaking first could cause Cano to just go somewhere else on a team where he doesn’t have to be “the man”. With the Yankees, the contract will me he is expected to be the man and with that expectation comes great responsibility.
I think the Yankees will try to give him a Votto deal. I’m just not sure he’ll stay here and take.
Same thing with Hughes. I think money being equal, he may just not want to stay in NY any longer.
I think the Yankees will try to give him a Votto deal. I’m just not sure he’ll stay here and take.
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Uh why wouldn’t he? A votto deal would be a hilariously huge contract. Its 13/263 and even if you just count the last 8 years its 8/192.
Can the NYY really give Cano a 6-7 year contract…say for $150 mil +……I can’t see it & thats why if I could trade him to a team that will pay him that…
Jerkface,
He may not take it if another team that offers that money & lineup protection like Prince/Miguel Cabrera, Kemp/Agon/Hanley/Ethier etc.
In a few years, it’s going to be Cano and Tex and Tex is in rapid free fall of a decline. Without major trades, signings and good luck with prospects, the Yankees in 3 years could be the Mets.
What about Granderson, Logan, Robertson, Nunez and Austin for Upton….? Bad huh? Yeah okay guys, fine be that way!! *humph!*
Cano will go wherever the money is.
Why would Hal, with his frugality, spend the kind of money he will command?
mick January 11th, 2013 at 5:00 pm
Cano will go wherever the money is.
Why would Hal, with his frugality, spend the kind of money he will command?
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Because if he doesn’t he should be ready for YS3 to be a ghost town
really hard to see the NYY letting a player as good as Cano walk without getting players who can start in their lineup in return…
Because if he doesn’t he should be ready for YS3 to be a ghost town
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It’s happened before…
If his master plan fails, Yankee fans are the worst losers and will not show for losing baseball.
This would prolly move him to sell the team.
I doubt Hal could stand the scrutiny the NY media would exert.
Constant headlines of an empty stadium would do that.
Bad PR is not good for business.
Cano for Ackley and Montero
It might
joeman says:
January 11, 2013 at 5:08 pm
Cano for Ackley and Montero
Probably would…. Then sign Cano next winter if you want ….but they’d never do that
An aside,
Just found a hammered copper ashtray I made for my parents in summer camp back in the Dark Ages, which I, in turn, inherited. What do little kids hammer out today? Or do any of them even know what a hammer is?
Sea looking to make a big splash….and the owner feels bad about the Montero trade….
Id probably make them gimmi one of those pitchers too though
I’d substitute Ackley for an outfielder & take back a pitcher or two.
Montero’s value has dropped from when he was a Yankee.
If he had the same year as a Yankee his trade value would have been less than it was when we traded him.
mick January 11th, 2013 at 5:24 pm
Montero’s value has dropped from when he was a Yankee.
If he had the same year as a Yankee his trade value would have been less than it was when we traded him.
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much better than the ….. they have now
mick – yesterday I was about to give grudging praise to the MLB for its latest drug policy – until you said it was already in the CBA and they should waited to announce it. Now I see them as the same losers as always. With all the crap going on, they obviously knew their backs were against the wall. So they had to do something. Instead of announcing it ahead of time, they waited for the vote to come in, probably thinking some of the crud cheaters would be voted in, so they could then announce the plan and explain that it would be the only way to get rid of the cloud of suspicion. In other words, instead of doing it with any integrity and letting the chips fall where they may, they took the easy way out and waited for the vote. MO, anyway.