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Pinch hitting: Patrick

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 14, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Leading off our annual Pinch Hitters series is frequent blog commenter Jerkface. His family knows him as Patrick, he’s been a LoHud regular since 2007, and he says his favorite device to watch baseball on is Excel 2003. Seems natural, then, that his guest post would be all about numbers.

I always edit these guest posts on my own, but when Patrick submitted a detailed explanation of a complicated issue, I went looking for backup. Major League Baseball put me on the phone with one of its vice presidents, who listened as I read through the key parts of this post. Acting as LoHud fact checker, the league executive confirmed the accuracy of everything that follows. He wasn’t sure of the exact percentage of annual revenue sharing that comes from the Yankees – this piece puts it at 27.5 percent — but he didn’t seem to think that Patrick’s number could be far off.

This offseason and the following offseason, there will be a lot of talk about the $189 million payroll limit that the Yankees will try to get under by 2014 and the impact that it has on the moves the team will make. A lot of people are unclear as to what this limit really means, so I thought I would write this to help fans understand how the limit is calculated and how the current Yankee team is impacted by those calculations.

The CBA & Luxury Tax Calculations
The Collective Bargaining Agreement signed by the MLBPA & Ownership is what governs the interactions between players & management in Major League Baseball. Last offseason a new CBA was signed which introduced new wrinkles into the luxury tax agreement that has the Yankees attempting to get under the limit for the first time in a decade. Here are the basics:

1. The luxury tax limit for 2013 is $178 million. For 2014-2016 it is $189 million.

2. There is a new revenue sharing refund program which forces teams in the 15 largest markets to refund their revenue sharing — if they receive revenue sharing — in increasing proportions until they refund 100% in 2016. The Yankees pay around 27.5% of all revenue sharing each season and would get some of that back thanks to the disqualification program. The teams that are going to pay back as of now are the Athletics, Braves, Nationals, and Blue Jays. Those four receive around 23% of all revenue sharing. Note: Athletics will be given immunity if they do not receive a new stadium, reducing potential return for the Yankees from 23% to 15%.

3. The amount of refunded money the Yankees receive is based on how many consecutive years they have crossed the luxury tax threshold: 100% if they were not over the limit the previous year. 75% if it is the second consecutive year they have gone over the limit, 50% if it is the third consecutive year they have gone over the limit, 25% if it is the fourth consecutive year they have gone over the limit and 0% if it is the fifth (or more) consecutive year they have gone over the limit. If the Yankees did not go over the luxury tax limit for 2014, 2015 and 2016 they would receive 11.65% of their revenue sharing back in 2014, 17.47% in 2015, and 23.3% in 2016. This assumes the same teams above will continue to receive revenue sharing & Oakland receives a stadium in 2014. If no stadium it will be 7.8%, 11.7%, 15.6%.

4. The payroll value used to check against the luxury tax limit is not simply the sum of the team’s season contract values. Payroll figures like those found on ESPN or COTS MLB Contracts are not the number that is used to determine payroll. Payroll is the sum of: one-year contract values of everyone on the 40-man roster, the annual average value of multi-year contracts including bonuses/player options/buy outs of non-player options, cash considerations from trades, single-season salary escalators or bonuses (such as MVP bonuses/games played bonuses), any amount deductible or includible based on specific player events, and a 1/30th share of player benefits. This is calculated around December 15th after the postseason.

5. Beginning in 2013, the amount of luxury tax a team pays will be changed to the following: 17.5% for first time offenders, 30% for second, 40% for third, 50% for fourth or more. A team which did not go over in the previous year will reset to the 17.5% amount if they go over again. This tax is only paid on the marginal overage, meaning if your payroll as calculated above is 190 you would pay tax on the $1 million, not $190 million.

6. The 1/30th share of player benefits is $10,799,590 for 2013, and will increase or stay the same for 2014.

How the Yankees will be looking at 2014
If you read and understand the above, you can see there is definitely incentive for the Yankees to get under the limit if their goal is to increase profits. They will not only get the savings from simply reducing payroll, but also from paying reduced or no luxury tax and from potential revenue sharing rebates.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, the $189,000,000 goal will be difficult for the team to get under without some very shrewd maneuvering and getting a bingo on a minor league prospect or three. The 2014 Yankee club, as viewed through a luxury tax lens, looks like the following:

Team must be at or under $189,000,000 for entire season costs
Alex Rodriguez – $27,500,000 (Average Annual Value of contract)
Mark Teixeira — $22,500,000 (Average Annual Value of Contract)
CC Sabathia — $24,400,000 (Average Annual Value of Contract [Original + Extension])
Ichiro Suzuki — $6,500,000
Player Benefits — $10,799,590 (Or more!)

Remaining budget room: $97,825,410

These are known costs, but there is one more cost that will definitely factor in to 2014. It is variable. If Derek Jeter accepts his player option for 2014 he will cost $15,500,000 (14 AAV+1.5 silver slugger bonus). If Derek Jeter declines his option, he will count as $9,000,000 for 2014, due to the rules of the CBA. Derek Jeter’s $8 million player option for 2014 counts as a guaranteed year and is included in the AAV calculation, which lowered the AAV of Jeter’s deal from $16mm to $14mm. The Yankees will owe $2mm each in back pay for 2011, 2012, and 2013. They will also owe $3mm for his buyout.

Without doing anything significant via trade, the Yankees 2014 operating budget will be either $82,325,410 or $88,825,410 depending on what Jeter does. This does not include anyone in arbitration, minor leaguers on the 40 man roster, or potential bonuses like A-rod’s home run milestone ($6 million potential hit).

Can the Yankees fit ~20 players under that salary amount while still competing for the playoffs?

You can find the CBA at http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

Associated Press photos

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305 Responses to “Pinch hitting: Patrick”

  1. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:02 am

    meh

  2. blake January 14th, 2013 at 9:03 am

    blake says:
    January 14, 2013 at 9:01 am
    FiretheUMPIRE says:
    January 14, 2013 at 8:58 am
    If you really want to find out what Nate Silver projects for Jesus Montero then just look at his 2013 PECOTA calculation.

    Those kind of projections are much more accurate when they player has multiple years of data to draw from…..with a one year rookie sample they really don’t mean much

  3. blake January 14th, 2013 at 9:05 am

    JF has a name? Who knew

  4. AAA January 14th, 2013 at 9:08 am

    JF:

    Well done. Don’t know the answer to your ultimate question, but your explanation of the numbers is terrific. Good of Chad to do some background work to confirm as well.

    I’m bookmarking this.

  5. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 9:08 am

    No question the Yankees will be relying a lot on their Rookies in 2014 if they wish to get under 189.

    The real question would seem to be whether or not they can field a highly competitive Team while doing so ?

  6. blake January 14th, 2013 at 9:11 am

    I’ve read this post before as JF has linked it elsewhere but this is very well done and should be forwarded to every writer that covers the Yankees and baseball so that they can more accurately discuss this issue in their columns

  7. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:12 am

    Blake there is a full season sample, so I wouldn’t necessarily call PECOTA inaccurate in this instance. Could statistics be more accurate? You can always make a case for that. The question is, what does the great Nate Silver think of Jesus Montero right now. We’re not floating arbitrary numbers here or fancy dreams – we’re taking a hard look at all the hard data available. Can you do better? Can Randy? What’s your system? PECOTA? NYT Electoral Map Generator?

    Jesus Montero’s PECOTA could mean something or it might mean nothing. How many states did Nate Silver miscalculate in 2012?

  8. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:13 am

    I like the choice of pictures for this column. Hal and Arod. It’s perfect.

  9. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:15 am

    “His family knows him as Patrick ”

    hahahahhahahhahahhaah

    i’m already liking this post.

  10. Bronx Jeers January 14th, 2013 at 9:16 am

    Put me in the column against revealing the names of the pinch hit posters.

    He’ll always be Jerkface to me. :wink:

    But good explanation of the rebates which I always found confusing.
    —————————————

    From Previous….

    He seems interested in teaching how to hit the ball hard and hope the rest takes care of itself.

    ——————-

    If we go back to early September you may recall Long lamenting about the guys not having a plan up there and always taking big cuts. That’s when Girardi came out with his “We’re not the Bronx Bunters…” comment.

    It’s possible that Girardi may be the problem there.

  11. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 9:16 am

    Time to walk the Mops.

    Those are some daunting #’s to contemplate.

  12. blake January 14th, 2013 at 9:17 am

    “Blake there is a full season sample, so I wouldn’t necessarily call PECOTA inaccurate in this instance”

    when you have one year of sample and that one year is a guy’s rookie season played at age 22 then you can make projections off that sure…..but those projections are much less likely to be accurate than say if you predicted what Robinson Cano might hit in 2013.

    Carlos Gonzalez hit like .230 his rookie year…..Matt Kemp hit .250….

  13. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:19 am

    Girardi’s biggest problem likely is that he defers to this particular hitting coach. As MTU stated, his hitting approach is inflexible and is not adapted to situational hitting. He is good at tweaking swings, the nuts and bolts but as far as promoting a systemic philosophy that makes the lineup overall better on the whole? He could be lacking.

  14. blake January 14th, 2013 at 9:19 am

    predicting a presidency and predicting what a player will hit the next season are two totally different things…..many more variables involved in the latter

  15. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 9:19 am

    Maybe Bronx. Maybe.

  16. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:19 am

    excellent post jf, good work!

    i tried to work out a ballpark figure for what the ‘savings’ would be if they get under the 189 for 2014 and 15 then spend 225M in 2016, vs keeping a steady budget of $215M and came up right around $200M over the remaining 4 years of the cba. (more or less depending on certain variables i wont go into here)

  17. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 9:21 am

    All I know is that it’s frickin’ cold here.

    Brrrrrr !!!

    later.

  18. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:21 am

    Blake and I’m sure PECOTA was not kind to Cano nor Carlos Gonzalez. But we’re talking about Nate Silver here and the best data available. Are you and Randy the lone scouts who defied PECOTA back then and realized a gem of a player, the diamond in the rough so to speak?

    I’d probably wager on 1 year of data for PECOTA vs. you or Randy.

    No offense of course.

  19. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:23 am

    Blake, Randy is the one who drew a parallel between Nate Silver and Montero. I’m merely bolding this parallel with a straight edge. You picked up the argument for Randy but his words are etched on LOHUD. Predicting presidential politics IS like predicting player performance. And the great Nate Silver is great in all instances, whether we are talking about baseball or politics. That’s Randy’s premise.

  20. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:25 am

    Great post by Jerkface. Even more awesome that Chad did his due diligence and got confirmation on all of the information.

    I hope the fact that fans are able to pick this stuff apart fairly accurately gets some attention by both the organization and especially other writers who don’t seem to even take the time to understand the basic rules of the CBA before making reports.

    Are there games tomorrow..? Is the entire baseball world waiting for the Upton domino to fall at this point?

  21. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:26 am

    one minor thing i would point out in the post is this:

    “there is definitely incentive for the Yankees to get under the limit if their goal is to increase profits”

    their goal is not just to increase profits but to lower the cost of players (or get more bang for their payroll bucks) moving forward.

  22. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:28 am

    Predicting presidential politics IS like predicting player performance.

    —————

    It really isnt… there are decades and decades of voting projections to work off of… no player has that type of historical data to work with.

  23. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:30 am

    @JonHeymanCBS: Dickey, Pettitte, Kimbrel, Victorino commit to Team USA. Wright, Braun, Stanton, Mauer also in. http://t.co/hjEJH5gV

    ————————

    Just saw this from last night.. hoping Andy is just doing this to build up arm strength since he’s been off for a season and a half. Not loving this though.

  24. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:30 am

    According to Randy, it is the same. Nate Silver predicted the presidential election using his statistical prowess. Yet Nate Silver’s PECOTA system can’t be relied upon.

    This is just like the argument “Steroids is cheating. Ortiz is a big fat cheater. Nevermind, Alex Rodriguez did steroids, all players do it, he belongs in the HOF.”

  25. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:30 am

    firethe umpire-

    actually i like nate silver a lot.

    i don’t see any conflict with how he sees baseball players and how i see baseball players.

    because he’s never really played the game, he’s limited in what he does, but what he does is quite good. for instance he can make quality probability predictions about what might happen, but you really don’t want to hire him as a coach to make that prediction happen.

    nate silvers role in baseball is limited , but he still has an obvious role and a useful one.

  26. blake January 14th, 2013 at 9:31 am

    “Blake and I’m sure PECOTA was not kind to Cano nor Carlos Gonzalez. But we’re talking about Nate Silver here and the best data available”

    Numbers are numbers…..I’m not saying Nates methods are inaccurate…..I’m saying the actual numbers he’s working with could be because the player could change…..just as CarGo and Kemp did

  27. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:33 am

    what silver did with presidential polls was great. to be honest i was kind of doing the same thing throughuot the election season, aggregating in my head the combinations of polls that i found in politico in the swing states (i didnt read 535 as im not a subscriber). and i was telling everyone for the last 2 weeks that obama was going to win rather easily, then i heard about the 535 blog predictions.

    what i was doing was nowhere near the data crunching silver was doing and had no certainty to it but it just seemed like a logical thing to do rather than try to pick out which poll was right and which was wrong.

  28. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:34 am

    Or maybe you are that rabid Mitt Romney believer, that guy who launched skewedpolls.com in your denial of PECOTA.

    On the one hand you embrace his statistical model yet dilute and curb expectations for PECOTA.

    I will 100% of the time bet on PECOTA vs. you and Blake’s eyes.

  29. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:36 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:30 am

    According to Randy, it is the same. Nate Silver predicted the presidential election using his statistical prowess. Yet Nate Silver’s PECOTA system can’t be relied upon.

    This is just like the argument “Steroids is cheating. Ortiz is a big fat cheater. Nevermind, Alex Rodriguez did steroids, all players do it, he belongs in the HOF.”

    ———————

    The methods are the same but the data isn’t… which makes it not the same as far as the level of accurate predictability. And I think that’s our main concern.

    In an election Silver basically only has to predict one of two outcomes for those that are most likely to vote (voting Republican or Democrat).. in baseball, you’ve got more do deal with than that.

  30. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:38 am

    Still higher probability of being more accurate than Blake and Randy’s eyes.

    So as long as Randy injects Nate Silver into the Montero debate, I’ll follow right behind with PECOTA.

  31. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:39 am

    “Great post by Jerkface”

    shame-

    agree.

    i think( and i could be wrong) that percota uses historical comparisons to other similar players at similar ages to give percota some historical input into its algorithm .

    and silver doesn’t “predict” as much as give probabilities the way i understand it. he wouldn’t have been wrong if romney had won the presidential election. he did say he’d win about 20 % of the time.
    if the election would have been run 100 tomes romney would have won about 20 times.

    a prediction is more like saying this will happen or that will happen. silver is all about probabilities. i’m sure at it’s roots that percota is about probabilities and not certainties.

  32. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:40 am

    Right, so according to Nate Silver, there is a 80% chance Montero will flop and you are in the 20% saying “NO MITT ROMNEY TEH BEST”

  33. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:40 am

    “So as long as Randy injects Nate Silver into the Montero debate, I’ll follow right behind with PECOTA.”

    sounds good to me.

    i like nate silver and i like montero.

    what is percota’s 2013 projection for montero by the way?

  34. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:41 am

    one thing is for sure, nobody on this blog that i saw predicted #’s for montero last season that were as low as his statistics turned out to be.

  35. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:41 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:34 am

    Or maybe you are that rabid Mitt Romney believer, that guy who launched skewedpolls.com in your denial of PECOTA.

    On the one hand you embrace his statistical model yet dilute and curb expectations for PECOTA.

    I will 100% of the time bet on PECOTA vs. you and Blake’s eyes.

    ————————–

    These are just not the same thing.. statistics and determining predictors are only as good as the raw data you have. In politics there is significantly more data to utilize than in any sport.

  36. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:42 am

    Not necessarily. Are peoples thoughts and leanings more concrete than physical performance?

  37. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:44 am

    i think we can leave out terms like ‘rabid mitt romney fan’ please.

    the discussion was about the relative merits of polling between presidential politics and baseball stats, which is fine.

    but that doesnt open the door for this kind of stuff.

  38. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:45 am

    I like rabid as a word choice, it implies an emotional state where one is irrational and unscientific.

  39. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:46 am

    a prediction is more like saying this will happen or that will happen. silver is all about probabilities. i’m sure at it’s roots that percota is about probabilities and not certainties.

    ——————

    You’re right, probability is the better term to use.

    In politics unlike sports, you’re working with historical data related to a two party system. There are decades of evidence for how different genders, ethnicities, classes, ages, etc, will vote. The more raw data you have, the more accurate your probabilities will be.

  40. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:46 am

    and maybe a tad delusional and distracted.

  41. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:47 am

    Still though, you can soundly make an argument that one’s innermost thoughts and leanings are more measurable than physical outcomes? That’s interesting.

  42. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:48 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:42 am

    Not necessarily. Are peoples thoughts and leanings more concrete than physical performance?

    ————————

    Yes.

    Especially when you only have a few years of data on the physical performance of a player.

    Politics is far more predictable than one players performance in any given year.

  43. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 9:48 am

    one thing is for sure, nobody on this blog that i saw predicted #’s for montero last season that were as low as his statistics turned out to be.
    -

    It was foreseeable that he wouldn’t hit as well in Safeco as he would at YS, for which he has a tailor-made swing. Plus, some of mentioned that he might have to surmount a learning curve.

  44. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:49 am

    rabid is a fine word. but please leave your political opinions outside of this comments section.

    we have a very varied group here and im sure we cover the politcal spectrum from one end to the other.

    and we as a group without much nudging from the host, agreed to leave political opinions out of this comments section.

    and i think and respect everyone on this point.

    so i ask you to please keep aspursions about one politician or party or ideology out of this comments section.

  45. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:49 am

    You can look at multiple years of data from the PECOTA system though and reference it to player outcomes over PECOTA’s history.

    PECOTA is used by agents, executives and owners. It is used in arbitration hearings based on a few years of data.

  46. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:51 am

    The use of the term “rabid” was to imply a derailed mental state, not my political leanings.

  47. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 9:52 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:47 am

    Still though, you can soundly make an argument that one’s innermost thoughts and leanings are more measurable than physical outcomes? That’s interesting.

    —————

    Absolutely… why not? In US politics you only (basically) have two choices.. it’s not as if you’re predicting a multitude of outcomes. It’s as simple as Democrat or Republican. You basically have a 50/50 shot of being right in 98% of the votes cast. Historically, we have data that predicts which way states will vote, genders will vote, ages will vote, etc.

    In all statistical analysis, the raw data used is the most important.

    The methodology Silver uses is sound.. there are just more variables and less predictability when you’re working with player data.

  48. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:52 am

    y’s guy-

    silver’s model was not just averaging other polls. his algorithm had things like who won historically when things like unemployment were at certain levels.

    i think the historical weighing of different factors was a major part of silver’s work and not just taking an average of other polls.

  49. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 9:53 am

    Or you can just invest your faith in Randy when he insists Montero is going to be “a generational hitter” or when Blake says “I really like his swing.” And call it accurate. Call it significant.

    I’ll take PECOTA’s projection based on one year of data for the time being.

    No offense of course.

  50. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 9:53 am

    In politics unlike sports, you’re working with historical data related to a two party system. There are decades of evidence for how different genders, ethnicities, classes, ages, etc, will vote. The more raw data you have, the more accurate your probabilities will be.
    -
    Political predictions also utilize factors such as GOTV operations, particularly some of the micro targeting methods that were utilized during the last election cycle. There is no sports prediction model analogue.

  51. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 9:58 am

    “randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:52 am
    y’s guy-

    silver’s model was not just averaging other polls. his algorithm had things like who won historically when things like unemployment were at certain levels.

    i think the historical weighing of different factors was a major part of silver’s work and not just taking an average of other polls.
    ——————————————————–
    i totally agree randy. what he did was great and data intensive. but at its base there was a simplicity that seemed obvious to some while others wanted to call him a crank.

    while everyone else was debating which poll meant what, he just accepted all the polls and used that for his data crunching.

  52. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 9:59 am

    “so i ask you to please keep aspursions about one politician or party or ideology out of this comments section.”

    ysguy-

    what if there is a connection on being a dumb ass in politics and being a dumb ass in baseball ?

    it does appear to be some cross over between some people’s political views and their baseball views.

    in other words if someone is extremely conservative in politics, you wouldn’t expect them to be open minded and creative in their view of baseball.

    i often can tell exactly what someone’s politics are from the way they talk about baseball. i’d be surprised if you can’t.

  53. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:01 am

    There are two outcomes in politics but Nate Silver projected the percentage spread with a high degree of accuracy in multiple races and multiple states. He didn’t just predict Democrats vs. Republicans, yes or no, black or white. 100% or zero. He projected innermost thoughts and leanings with a high degree of accuracy across multiple regions and demographics. Yet when it comes to physical outcomes and concrete physical performance? Defer to Randy and Blake. Ok Shame. My money’s on red.

  54. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:03 am

    Heidi Heitkamp defied Nate Silver though and the great state of North Dakota thumbs their noses at PECOTA.

  55. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:05 am

    I leave you with that one last nugget, a glimmer of justification for Jesus worship.

  56. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 10:06 am

    actually i disagree about that and id be willing to bet most people on here would get my pollitical beliefs wrong.

    please dont anyone start guessing at my political preferences as i will not acknowlege right or wrong guesses as i dont think that belongs here.

  57. Tackelberry January 14th, 2013 at 10:06 am

    Nice writeup on prospect Adonis Garcia, who the Yanks signed out of Cuba last year. Wonder if he could possibly help this year. Higher ceiling than Musteiler.

    http://waswatching.com/2013/01/11/adonis-garcia/

  58. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:06 am

    “Or you can just invest your faith in Randy when he insists Montero is going to be “a generational hitter” ”

    fire the umpire-

    whoa nellie.
    i don’t use the word “generational” .

    you are mixing me up with someone else.

    what i simply said about monetro is that from watching one swing of his on tv in a spring training game that he has unbelievable bat speed. bat speed, by the way , is very measurable though teams rarely seem to measure it.

    the other thing i said from watching one game is that he could catch. and he can.

    “generational” is your word not mine.

  59. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:07 am

    He projected innermost thoughts and leanings

    —————

    He didn’t do that at all.. there is no way to predicting innermost thoughts.

    I’m not saying there is anything wrong with utilizing PECOTA’s projections, I’m just saying they’re decidedly less accurate they the same methods are when applied to a national election.

    And Rich’s point is excellent.. the entire campaign process is designed to target certain populations.

  60. Yankee Trader January 14th, 2013 at 10:08 am

    Jerkface-

    Enjoyed your detailed description of the new CBA agreement.

    ” If the Yankees did not go over the luxury tax limit for 2014, 2015 and 2016 they would receive 11.65% of their revenue sharing back in 2014, 17.47% in 2015, and 23.3% in 2016.”

    This is if Oakland is approved for a new stadium in 2014.

    What might this roughly mean in dollars each of those 3 years, to give me a better idea if it’s likely the Steinbrenner’s will be inclined to just reset the LT to 17.5% by staying under in 2014, or go for the maximum returns by complying for all thre years?

    Thanks JF for your valued input.

  61. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:08 am

    than the same methods*

    Ugh.

  62. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 10:09 am

    in other words if someone is extremely conservative in politics, you wouldn’t expect them to be open minded and creative in their view of baseball.
    -
    In my experience, this is not true.

  63. Yankee Trader January 14th, 2013 at 10:10 am

    *three*

  64. Bronx Jeers January 14th, 2013 at 10:10 am

    Heidi Heitkamp defied Nate Silver though and the great state of North Dakota thumbs their noses at PECOTA.

    ——————-

    Canada doesn’t count.

  65. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:12 am

    I didn’t say he “predicted” thoughts. I said he projected. He projected outcomes based on thoughts. His highly accurate projections used descriptive analysis (surveys and questionnaires) to “project” outcomes. Surveys and questionnaires are not highly reliable data in that people’s opinions and feelings shift significantly over time. They are a highly subjective measuring tool.

  66. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:12 am

    “Or you can just invest your faith in Randy when he insists Montero is going to be “a generational hitter” ”

    ys guy-

    actually you;re one of the people i have no idea what your political views are, but i definitely know a lot of others on here.

    as for me i’m a libertarian in the sense that a far left person and a far right person have almost the same politics .

    i like simplicity, but i like fairness and a level playing field to compete on too.

  67. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 10:14 am

    “Heidi Heitkamp defied Nate Silver though and the great state of North Dakota thumbs their noses at PECOTA.”
    ———————————————-
    ok so he missed those 6 people….

  68. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:15 am

    “Still higher probability of being more accurate than Blake and Randy’s eyes.”

    Love how you’re trying to make this an eyes vs numbers argument….,its not….it’s that a one year sample for a rookie doesn’t tell you as much for projections as a multi year sample for an established player……that’s it…..

  69. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:17 am

    Ok Blake, PECOTA is totally insignificant when there is only 153 games of data.

  70. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:18 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:12 am

    I didn’t say he “predicted” thoughts. I said he projected. He projected outcomes based on thoughts. His highly accurate projections used descriptive analysis (surveys and questionnaires) to “project” outcomes. Surveys and questionnaires are not highly reliable data in that people’s opinions and feelings shift significantly over time. They are a highly subjective measuring tool.

    ——————————

    Now you’re just ignoring the basic premise of what I’m saying. If polling and surveys weren’t predictors of anything, no one would bother with them. But we’re in luck because the data mostly used for political projections, in large part, is not poll or survey related.

    The raw data is what is most important in determining probabilities.. there is significantly more raw voting data than there is for any data associated with a baseball player’s performance.

    The two things are not comparable in terms of probability or projections, only in terms of methodology.

  71. Yankee Trader January 14th, 2013 at 10:18 am

    This is what the NYY have paid in luxury taxes the last 5 years starting with 2012:

    18.9M
    13.9M
    18M
    25.7M
    26.9M

    http://www.stevetheump.com/luxury_tax.htm

    Attached article gives you how the monies from LT are apportioned.

  72. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:20 am

    “actually you;re one of the people i have no idea what your political views are, but i definitely know a lot of others on here.”

    I think we should have a monarchy so we could celebrate a royal couple personally

  73. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:20 am

    Well if PECOTA wasn’t a reliable predictive model then Nate Silver wouldn’t be Nate Silver. He’d be some poker player on ESPN.

  74. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:20 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:17 am

    Ok Blake, PECOTA is totally insignificant when there is only 153 games of data.

    ——————

    It’s way more insignificant than 5 seasons worth of data or 10 seasons worth of data.. everything regarding statistics is relative. The projections are only as good as the sample used. Which is why the politics vs. sports analogy is flimsy. You’re talking about two entirely different data sources with entirely different possibilities of outcomes.

  75. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 10:21 am

    Montero out of Safeco is almost an elite bat at catching position. He is still learning. I would have love to see him swing the bat in YS with his piazza like opposite field power. I think he would had an above 280 average and 20 plus hrs if he was with yanks ly and obviously with room to grow.

  76. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:21 am

    It’s way more significant than fans opinions though, whether the data is 153 events or 5 years of data.

  77. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:23 am

    FiretheUMPIRE says:
    January 14, 2013 at 10:17 am
    Ok Blake, PECOTA is totally insignificant when there is only 153 games of data.

    Didnt say that….it’s something to look at…. But you said yourself that these things probably looked at Kemp poorly after his rookie year and they were wrong……

    Statistical projections use the past to predict the future…..and that’s great if a player is developed and become what he’s going to be…..when a player is growing and changing though its much harder to project those things…..

  78. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:23 am

    “In my experience, this is not true.”

    rich in nj-

    it’s a probability thing. sure a conservative person might be creative and open minded, but usually conservative people tend to play it safe and are reluctant to embrace new ideas.

    at it’s best, kind of an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” kind of way.

    personally i like to take things apart and see what makes them tick.

  79. Phranchise January 14th, 2013 at 10:24 am

    I will start off by saying very nice post.

    At this point though I think I am not alone in tiring of all this cap talk. Underlying all of it whether it’s 20 million in savings or whatever, no one is really interested, from a fans prespective, that the Yankees could make more money annually than they already do. For the extremely wealthy that own the team, the ultimate value is the brand & re-sale value. If they are stupid enough to tarnish that or let the rest of the field catch up then they are stupider than we give them credit for.

    Sure it’s a business, but since it is you need people to buy the product. It has become obvious that less people are buying into the product at the cost except apparently to Hal.

    I would love to see a cost/savings analysis here. So if they stay under the threshold, how much income do the Yankees lose out on when they miss the playoffs. And how much do they ultimately lose by a reduction of 10% of season ticket plans. I have a feeling they are playing a very dangerous game here which will backfire unless as stated they win bingo with a few minor leaguers.

    You expect top dollar paid to attend and go to games, you better make sure you field a top quality product. And past contract mistakes made by management is not a good excuse to make the arguement you need to cut payroll to save money. Those mistakes simply cost you more cash by putting you over the luxury tax threshold.

  80. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:25 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:21 am

    It’s way more significant than fans opinions though, whether the data is 153 events or 5 years of data.

    —————————

    I’m pretty sure this isn’t what you’ve been trying to argue this entire time.. haven’t you been trying to say that 153 games worth of data gives you and accurate projection of an entire career? Because that’s not really true at all. And that’s all blake and randy have argued as far as I can tell.

  81. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:25 am

    That’s right Blake, there is a chance PECOTA will miss Montero the same way it missed Kemp, Cano and Heidi Heitkamp

  82. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Oh, ok Shame, you tell me what I’ve been trying to say so I don’t have to say it. Thanks.

  83. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Well written post by Jerk, detailed and concise.

  84. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:27 am

    I would love to see a cost/savings analysis here. So if they stay under the threshold, how much income do the Yankees lose out on when they miss the playoffs.

    ——————–

    I’ve asked before but I’m not sure if anyone knew the answer.. in the NHL, I believe each playoff home game generates an extra $1 million for the team. I’d imagine it’s higher in MLB but am not fully sure.

  85. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:29 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Oh, ok Shame, you tell me what I’ve been trying to say so I don’t have to say it. Thanks.

    —–

    Well, did I get it wrong? What else are you trying to say other than 153 games of baseball are enough to project the outcome of a players career using Silver’s methodology?

  86. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 10:30 am

    Btw, Jerkface’s post is better presentation than I have heard from so-called CBA experts in a sports law class.

  87. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:31 am

    shame-

    have you read silver’s book?

    i’ve read part but haven’t finished it.

    i think there’s more to what silver does than what it sounds like you think he does.

    of course if i knew exactly what he does from reading the whole book i could know what he does better :)

    the one thing i get is that he’s objective. i like how he thinks. i do think anyone mathematically challenged would have a tough time understanding silver.

    i think all of us are talking a lot about silver without having read his book or a detailed explanation of percota.

    my take on silver is that he’s pretty solid and worth reading his books and ideas.

  88. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 10:33 am

    When it comes to #’s JF (Patrick) rocks.

    Let’s have a sudden death grudge match between him and Hal.

    Let’s call it a “math-off”.

    :)

  89. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:33 am

    “Btw, Jerkface’s post is better presentation than I have heard from so-called CBA experts in a sports law class.”

    yes, patrick may have a future in the business of baseball if he chooses to.

  90. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 10:33 am

    randy

    I think there is a difference between a conservative personality and conservative politics, and really, I don’t think the words conservative and liberal have much meaning in politics any more.

  91. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 10:34 am

    I would love to see a cost/savings analysis here.
    —–
    obviously this has to do money. But I think in no small part, Hal wants to compete under the luxury cap and stop giving away Yankees money to teams that doesn’t need and a system that distributes it. He may have second thoughts if this actually hurts the Yankee brand and the bottom line.

    separately, whether it’s 220 or 189, Yanks still facing the daunting task of resupplying their talent pipe and establish a new core. That to me is the inevitable awaits.

  92. Patrick January 14th, 2013 at 10:35 am

    JF and me have the same name? That’s funny

  93. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:35 am

    I am not making my own original argument. I’m suggesting that if Randy wants to say Montero’s success is like Nate Silver’s 80/20 projection that the Presidential Election would be won by President Obama, maybe Randy should look at what Nate Silver projects about Montero’s 576 AB’s. Everything I’ve said thus far was just me attempting to put a statistical face on Randy’s very unscientific suggestion that Montero has an 80% chance of success and all the rest of the fans, scouts, executives, etc. who disagree fall in the camp who cling to the 20% chance of failure, like when skewedpolls.com smeared Nate and got many Republicans to believe that Nate was a shill for the Democratic Party.

  94. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:38 am

    But you didn’t get that Shame because you like to jump into arguments before reviewing all the relevant posts. You pick out one or few posts and decide on your line of conversation beforehand. And you jump to conclusions.

  95. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 10:38 am

    The stakes in the Sudden death match between Hal and JF are as follows:

    If Hal wins he gets to keep his 189 budget.

    If JF wins he gets to bust it and Hank can come out of the basement.

    My money is on Patrick.

    :)

  96. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:39 am

    i think there’s more to what silver does than what it sounds like you think he does.

    ——————

    Oh there’s definitely more to it, but I’m only arguing applying the methodology to politics and baseball are entirely different.

  97. Russell Munson January 14th, 2013 at 10:41 am

    Can we please stop pretending Nate Silver has anything to do with PECOTA anymore? He left Baseball Prospectus at least four years ago and the whole system has been re-worked from the bottom up.

  98. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:41 am

    “Oh there’s definitely more to it, but I’m only arguing applying the methodology to politics and baseball are entirely different.”

    shame -
    with all due respect, do you actually know what silver’s methodology is?

    i don’t , but i like what i’ve read so far. if you haven’t read his book or studied percota how do you even know what his methodology is?

  99. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 10:42 am

    But I think in no small part, Hal wants to compete under the luxury cap and stop giving away Yankees money to teams that doesn’t need and a system that distributes it.
    -
    True, and if that is his goal, to this point, Cashman has failed him.

  100. Russell Munson January 14th, 2013 at 10:42 am

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PECOTA

    “The 2009 preseason forecasts were the last ones for which Silver took primary responsibility. In March 2009, Silver announced that PECOTA’s extremely complex and laborious set of database manipulations and calculations would be moving to a different platform. Although Baseball Prospectus had been the owner of PECOTA since Silver sold it to them in 2003 — and Silver stewarded and took responsibility for the forecasts — henceforth PECOTA forecasts would be generated by the Baseball Prospectus team, initially with Clay Davenport in charge of the effort,[17] and later with Colin Wyers heading up both production and improvements in PECOTA. And the production of future forecasts would be more tightly integrated with the production of other Baseball Prospectus statistics.[2]“

  101. Patrick January 14th, 2013 at 10:42 am

    This is going to get real confusing if you all start addressing Jerkface as Patrick :)

    Good post jerkface, it should be required reading for all Yankee fans.

  102. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:43 am

    Yeah I’m sure they just tossed out Nate’s methodology entirely.

  103. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:45 am

    JF knows as much about advanced metrics as anyone and the numbers of baseball as anyone….and that’s no joke

  104. Ys Guy January 14th, 2013 at 10:46 am

    so pettitte IS going to pitch for team usa. good for him.

    as a fan i hate seeing any yankee pitcher in the WBC because there is a tendency to overthrow too early.

    but i really don’t worry that much about pettitte, he seems to know himself and his limits better than just about any other pitcher.

    i dont think the competition or joe torre are going to mess him up in any way.

  105. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:46 am

    “Good post jerkface, it should be required reading for all Yankee fans.”

    And sports writers

  106. Phranchise January 14th, 2013 at 10:47 am

    Cashmoney, I agree. I just really feel like this is a bit of wanting the best of all worlds here. And if this was the plan it should have started 2 years earlier and making the tough decision not to sign a Jeter or others currently here. In reality I think he is completely diminishing the product and hurting the fan base without seeing any of the benefit of this strategy as of today. To me it is easy to quantify what they could save by staying under, but far more risky to quantify the negative effects which could be far larger in the end. Ultimately, he may choose to go over the cap threshold and at the same time already damaged the product and relationship with the fans at the same time. So he may end up losing twice here.

    And by just being mediocre or getting to the playoffs or just missing, the draft is not an option. With the new rules there, they have limited scope to buy themselves into talent. And they will not be getting the high pick that ended up netting them Jeter.

    So are we really staring at the massive decline of this team over the next few years only to have to watch them try to buy their way out of it again?

  107. Russell Munson January 14th, 2013 at 10:48 am

    In 2012, PECOTA substantially changed the way it weighted past years’ performance in establishing the baseline for projections.[27] In addition, 10-year forecasts and percentile forecasts were added to the individual player PECOTA cards that are published on-line.[28]

  108. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 10:48 am

    I have no qualms in Yanks trying that out Rich. They need cheaper talents and a new core in looking ahead. I think that is a task better off address by someone other than Cmoney.

  109. DONNYBROOK January 14th, 2013 at 10:49 am

    - MONDAY MORNING MUSINGS -

    (1) If I own the Broncos, my 1st order of business today is the Firing of Head Coach John Fox. Peyton Manning was Not signed with his health issues up the ying-ying, and payed a king’s ransom, to take a knee: with the Entire season hanging in the balance, inna tie game, with :29 seconds remaining, 2 timeouts in hand, and needing Only a field goal to win. This was Definitely Johnny U, Elway, Joe Montana, And Peyton Manning territory.

    (2) Hard to take the Golden Globes serious when, “Game Of Thrones”, merits NOT 1 single nomination. And the foreign press can fall all over Ben Affleck and Argo, but they Already missed the boat with Affleck’s, “Gone Baby Gone”. Absolutely, The BEST, Most overlooked movie in the last 10yrs. Maybe longer.

    (3) Appreciate Kevin Long’s supposed Aug observations regarding A-Rod, but LoHud’ers needs Another Monday Morning QB like a hole-in-the-head.

    (4) Dan Dierdorf should be put out to pasture. His color work on that Bronco game was absolutely Abysmal. His endlessly shifting opinions on the numerous Reviewed Plays, made one believe it was Mitt Romney in the booth.

  110. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:50 am

    New and IMPROVED PECOTA, like Coke Zero.

  111. austinmac January 14th, 2013 at 10:50 am

    JF,

    Very good job. I do wish the local reporters would read it.

  112. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 10:51 am

    FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:35 am

    I am not making my own original argument. I’m suggesting that if Randy wants to say Montero’s success is like Nate Silver’s 80/20 projection that the Presidential Election would be won by President Obama, maybe Randy should look at what Nate Silver projects about Montero’s 576 AB’s. Everything I’ve said thus far was just me attempting to put a statistical face on Randy’s very unscientific suggestion that Montero has an 80% chance of success and all the rest of the fans, scouts, executives, etc. who disagree fall in the camp who cling to the 20% chance of failure, like when skewedpolls.com smeared Nate and got many Republicans to believe that Nate was a shill for the Democratic Party.

    ————————-

    Yes.. and I’m arguing whether you or randy are trying to use Silver’s methodology to predict performance, it’s a poor comparison.

    I’ve agreed the methodology is sound multiple times already.

  113. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 10:51 am

    We could call JF Patrick (The other one).

    That might work ?

    OTOH only his Family knows him as Patrick so I think I will stick with JF in the future if that’s OK.

    :)

  114. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 10:51 am

    ” I’m suggesting that if Randy wants to say Montero’s success is like Nate Silver’s 80/20 projection that the Presidential Election would be won by President Obama…”

    firetheumpire-

    nothing is worse than someone who is sabermetrically inclined but not logically or mathamatically smart.
    you are starting to make me think you’re not bright enough to wear the statistical analysis banner.

    my point is simple. it’s a probability thing.

    do you understand the concept of probability or don’t you?

    to be honest, you appear to be a true believer who really is the worst advocate for the beliefs you profess.

  115. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 10:52 am

    So are we really staring at the massive decline of this team over the next few years only to have to watch them try to buy their way out of it again?
    —–
    I think they need reassess their old approach of resupplying via buying Phranchise. But as many have pointed out, R and D has become more vital than ever under the new system. It’s not just Yankees, it’s with regard to operating any baseball teams.

  116. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:55 am

    Randy it is you who drew a false parallel between Nate Silver’s 80/20 prediction and Jesus Montero’s future success. It was a poor analogy. Montero’s future success is nothing like when Nate Silver projected President Obama’s re-election at 80% probability and deniers and naysayers all dogpiled on the poor defenseless victim.

  117. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:56 am

    “Montero’s future success is nothing like when Nate Silver projected President Obama’s re-election at 80% probability and deniers and naysayers all dogpiled on the poor defenseless victim.”

    Then why do you keep suggesting how accurate his 2013 projection for Montero must be?

  118. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:56 am

    So rather than rescind your comment, you spin an attack. Just like that skewedpolls.com guy.

  119. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 10:58 am

    JF and me have the same name? That’s funny

    And Pat M, and pretty sure there is another out there. One of the reasons why I never want to reveal my name, would look conspiratorial.

    FYI all you people arguing about Nate Silver & pecota should realize Nate Silver hasn’t done Pecota since he left BP, and the moment he left the data turned to crap because it didn’t have Nate Silver tuning the excel backbone. BP basically just dumped new numbers into it each year, forgetting that what made Pecota great is the secret sauce of nate silver.

  120. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:58 am

    So Tex is gonna be Team USAs 1B?

  121. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 10:58 am

    Blake, I’m only suggesting that PECOTA 2013 should be looked at by the person who drew the false parallel. I’m not saying PECOTA 2013 is 100% accurate for Montero. I’m saying Randy should not conflate statistical genius with his highly subjective opinions on Montero. Isn’t it obvious?

  122. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 10:59 am

    If a Farmer uses up all his seed corn he is destined to starve.

    If he tries to keep it all some is inevitably going to be wasted due to decay and oversupply.

    OTOH if the Farmer trades some of his seed corn for other things he might need at the right times he might just thrive.

    ;)

  123. blake January 14th, 2013 at 10:59 am

    JF,

    Would you agree that a statistical projection for Montero means less than one for a more established plauer

  124. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 11:00 am

    Jerkface just called Baseball Prospectus crap. :lol:

  125. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 11:00 am

    I mean Patrick :lol:

    of all people.

  126. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 11:00 am

    I know like 6 Patricks … it’s pretty common name.

  127. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 11:01 am

    Blake, no and I never argued that outside of your own trapped mind, enclosed and fortified like the Great Wall of China.

  128. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:02 am

    Would you agree that a statistical projection for Montero means less than one for a more established plauer

    Yes, projecting how a rookie player will hit, or someone with not enough data, is pretty difficult. If I were projecting rookies I’d probably just say they will all suck or hit a little worse than league average. I’d probably be right most of the time. Full disclosure, I said Montero would hit, even in safeco, but that wasn’t the case. Though he did very well on the road and at catcher, though he was fairly strictly platooned.

    I still wonder what might have been if he had been on the team in 2011, after his monster 2nd half in AAA.

    BP is fun for the articles & stats, but PECOTA is no bueno. It loses to things like ZIPS and CAIRO for the past few years.

  129. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:04 am

    Thanks for the kind words about the article, I do it because I care.

  130. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:04 am

    FiretheUMPIRE says:
    January 14, 2013 at 11:01 am
    Blake, no and I never argued that outside of your own trapped mind, enclosed and fortified like the Great Wall of China.

    Well you argued that 1 year was better than my eyes or some other nonsense…..you good have just agreed with me to begin with and saved us both a lots of words

  131. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 11:05 am

    You jumped into my contention with Randy’s false parallel and I continued to argue my point as if Randy was arguing. So that’s what happens when you don’t let people fight their own battles.

  132. Patrick January 14th, 2013 at 11:07 am

    I know like 6 Patricks … it’s pretty common name.

    Yeah it’s just kind of funny because I agree with most of what Jerkface posts here. And we’ve been accused of being the same person on this blog.

  133. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 11:08 am

    “Randy it is you who drew a false parallel between Nate Silver’s 80/20 prediction and Jesus Montero’s future success. It was a poor analogy.”

    put your own percentage number on it . i think it”s 80/20 montero is going to be a success

    but my real point is that its a probability game. no one knows what montero will do or any other player. predictions are just probabilities.

    if you don’t like that way of thinking, i’m not sure what your point is.

  134. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:09 am

    Jerkface says:
    January 14, 2013 at 11:04 am
    Thanks for the kind words about the article, I do it because I care.

    Makes one wonder how folks that get paid to write about baseball don’t care enough to be that thorough

  135. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:09 am

    I only gave my first name because Chad guilted me into it. Originally it was just jerkface, but I guess he didn’t want “Pinch Hitting: Jerkface”. If you read this article as it appeared on IATMS, you’ll notice I updated some of the stuff. Put the revenue sharing if Oakland doesnt receive a new stadium (which is most likely) and added Ichiro’s money and stuff.

  136. FiretheUMPIRE January 14th, 2013 at 11:11 am

    No Randy, you attempted to draw and association between Nate Silvers statistical analysis and your fanhood. You attempted to co-opt Silver’s expertise. Then you ducked behind Blake and Shame when confronted. Now it’s just you and me.

  137. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 11:12 am

    Randy – I’ve studied statistics pretty heavily since high school, unfortunately. It’s the backbone of research in many fields, so if you study and produce research you have to study statistics in order to understand what (if any) value they might have when predicting outcomes or probabilities.

    If the basic premise of the argument is that statistical methodology (any one of them implemented) applied to accurately predict probabilities of outcomes for future performance of baseball players as it is to national elections, that’s simply untrue. It doesn’t mean the methodology is wrong at all, and it doesn’t mean it won’t ever be accurate, it just means you’re using entirely different data sets and the reliability of the outcomes is different because of that.

    Like I said earlier, it all comes back to the raw data and number of possible outcomes. It’s just not a good analogy.

  138. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:12 am

    I did notice the updates ….well done

  139. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 11:13 am

    Patrick January 14th, 2013 at 11:07 am

    I know like 6 Patricks … it’s pretty common name.

    Yeah it’s just kind of funny because I agree with most of what Jerkface posts here. And we’ve been accused of being the same person on this blog.

    —————-

    How many of the Patricks on the blog are Irish…?

  140. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:14 am

    @AndrewMarchand: There was a report that the Yanks might have interest in Javy Vazquez. Cashman told me they don’t, but was complimentary of JV

    Lol

  141. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:15 am

    JF-

    If you really care you’ll challenge Hal to a “math-off” where the winner gets to set next year’s budget.

    Go spreadsheet for spreadsheet. stat for stat. # for #.

    I like your chances. I think you can take him.

    Could be a big win for “Team Greedy”.

    LGY has offered to be your trainer.

    :)

  142. Bronx Jeers January 14th, 2013 at 11:15 am

    I only gave my first name because Chad guilted me into it.

    ———————

    Did he ask you if you had a gun permit too ? It’s not like LoHud has been some big champion of privacy rights.

    Maybe I’m just all fired up after the Jodie Foster thing last night. :wink:

  143. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 11:15 am

    Cashman just can’t quit Vazquez. He seems to be a bit obsessive about it.

  144. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 11:16 am

    Maybe we can run a probability test on how many Patricks across the nation are from Irish decent..

    I’m gonna go out on a limb and say one of the Patricks on here has a last name starting with some variation of ‘Mc’ or ‘Mac’

  145. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 11:18 am

    MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:15 am

    JF-

    If you really care you’ll challenge Hal to a “math-off” where the winner gets to set next year’s budget.

    ————————-

    I would pay to see this debate. Really.

  146. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:18 am

    I did email Hal, but he never got back to me. Is he irish? I’ll drink him under the table and dunk on him with my excel formula.

  147. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:18 am

    Patrick Mcloud of the clan Mcloud….no wait that’s Scotish

  148. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:19 am

    Jerkface says:
    January 14, 2013 at 11:18 am
    I did email Hal, but he never got back to me. Is he irish? I’ll drink him under the table and dunk on him with my excel formula.

    He doesn’t want fans learning this stuff…

  149. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 11:19 am

    guys and gals, I don’t think hal has problem understanding the math behind 189. I think he wants to do it.

  150. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 11:19 am

    “Makes one wonder how folks that get paid to write about baseball don’t care enough to be that thorough”

    My guess is: 1) they are scared of (and unfamiliar with) numbers; 2) they are easily spun; 3) since the Yankees have been successful, the dominant meme is that they will continue to be. So they are more than willing to parrot the company line. If they start losing, the media will be all over them. It happens that way with all sports team.

    That’s why, despite any faults he has, Sherman is one of the best writers around because he is willing to push back against what is perceived as the CW, and/or what doesn’t make sense.

  151. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:22 am

    Shame-

    So would I.

    Proceeds go to JF’s favorite Charity when he trounces Hal.

    And Man I can’t wait to see that new budget.

    ;)

  152. DONNYBROOK January 14th, 2013 at 11:23 am

    Lost in all the Jodie Foster hoopla, was Kevin Costner’s extremely Touching acceptance speech. A Very humble and grateful man, getting “all misty eyed” as Lt. Col Frank Slade would coin it.

  153. David in Cal January 14th, 2013 at 11:23 am

    Well done, Jerkface!

  154. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 11:26 am

    “guys and gals, I don’t think hal has problem understanding the math behind 189. I think he wants to do it.”

    Hal’s problem is wanting to do it before the young cost-controlled assets will likely be ready, but signing off on Ichiro for 2014 makes me skeptical his seriousness.

  155. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:26 am

    JF is now a LoHud Folk hero in the mold of “Bobcat”

    :)

  156. Phranchise January 14th, 2013 at 11:26 am

    Cashmoney, let me throw something out there. If we are to assume this organization is locked in as far as payroll and draft costs.

    Do we think this money spends enough on all the intangibles to develop talent? I mean we have seen issues with injuries etc so far. But ultimately does this franchise have enough money spent on scouts, trainers, talent evaluators etc?

    Because my arguement there would be if this was your permanent approach and you have this money supposedly saved. Invest in the talent pipeline and blow away every other team in that area.

    I am not saying they don’t, but I just don’t know if they have across the board to seperate themselves from any other organization.

  157. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:27 am

    Unlike them he tells you what they “don’t” want you to hear.

    ;)

  158. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:29 am

    Phranchise,

    I have said before that to have anything less than the most scouts, the best trainers, the best instructors, the best minor league facilities, the most minor league teams, extra minor league teams, the largest draft pool, the biggest IFA pool, is nothing short of mind boggling for the Yankees.

    They are getting an extra GCL team next year, which is a good start. The only thing they can put money back into is more minor league stuff. They won’t be able to spend in the draft or IFA, so they really need to go hog wild on scouts & instructors.

  159. Phranchise January 14th, 2013 at 11:32 am

    Just curious, how many people have ticket plans ? Or had ticket plans and dropped them recently?

    I have a Friday plan and as much as I love the Yankees etc, the price of carrying the tickets (mostly because with a family I can’t attend quite a few of these and wear the cost) and what we are seeing from this organization for the first time made me wonder whether I wanted to re-up this year. In the end I did because I am a little obsessed, but I know quite a few people who felt slighted on the move to the new stadium and have dropped out.

  160. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 11:33 am

    Phranchise, I think they need to self evaluate internally to see if they have the right personnel to execute a plan that enable yanks to win consistently and stay under 189. No, I don’t think they have invested enough into their farm. I also think, like you suggested, they are trying to do both without full fledge commitments into either. I like to see bigger budget for the farm. revaluations of their statistical and scouting dept. And not the least of all, Cashman and Co to see if they have the right group to execute hal’s plan.

    We will see, Phran.

  161. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:35 am

    It might just be that Hal’s “plan” is to sell.

    ;)

  162. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 11:37 am

    I don’t go to YS a lot, because I am… well… lazy. I prefer hotel room big screen tv or home. But my friends buy the partial package, so I just buy it off them when I do want to go.

  163. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:37 am

    Or he could just be looking to find the “sweet spot” on his Racquet.

    ;)

  164. Phranchise January 14th, 2013 at 11:38 am

    Jerkface, totally agree. And you think about the cost of scouts and trainers in comparison to signing players. Now it may be that you can’t look at making a big impact on scouting by adding one guy, maybe really you need an extra ten to see a benefit, I get that. Or you overpay them, but this may be thousands of dollar per employee, not millions. But if we are staring at a true shift in strategy to developing young talent, shouldn’t we be seeing cash flow that when then ?

  165. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:39 am

    According to japanese newspapers, the Yankees might give Matsui a 1 day contract and put him in the field with Ichiro & Kuroda as a farewell. Then he will officially retire. Its unclear whether they mean during spring training (most likely) or during the regular season (They mention ‘the opener’)

  166. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:39 am

    Cash-

    What do the Svenskas think of YS ?

    Which do THEY prefer. Your crib or it ?

    :)

  167. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:41 am

    Axisa tweeted yesterday that perhaps the Yanks should deal Granderson to Seattle and aquire Upton and Morse……I think this a stretch realistically but just for kicks….. What woukd the Yanks have to give Seattle to satisfy them to give a package that woukd facilitate Upton going to NY?

    Seattle : Granderson, Adams, Nova, Montgomery
    Dbacks : get the package from before
    yanks : get Upton

    Seattle doesn’t get Upton but they get 4 players instead of one for their package

  168. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:41 am

    The Yankees have already hired 2 high profile new scouts this past year and have replaced Contreras with Patterson.

    Perhaps there will be more.

  169. randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 11:42 am

    shame -

    have you read nate silver’s book or haven’t you?

    by the way,i don’t you and i have any real disagreement here.

    i see the world in probabilities and not certainties and i’m pretty sure you do too.

  170. Cashmoney January 14th, 2013 at 11:42 am

    The Swedes enjoys the Yanks when they do come into the town. depends on whom, MTU, but mostly i think as the novelty wears off, they prefer to chill at my crib. plus, i get to guilt Jimmy into making Swedish meatballs.

  171. Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 11:42 am

    I have been saying that they should trade Granderson. Settling more a pick makes no sense.

  172. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:42 am

    The Yankees have already hired 2 high profile new scouts this past year and have replaced Contreras with Patterson.

    They have a long way to go to catch up to a team like Boston, who had like twice as many scouts as the Yankees :) I do like hearing about all those kinds of moves though. They’re unheralded, but potentially impactful.

  173. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:45 am

    JF-

    I do what I can. Some of us are not math wizzes you know.

    :)

  174. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:47 am

    Any time Hal wants to have a “hike-off’ I’m ready.

    ;)

  175. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:47 am

    Any time Hal wants to have a “hike-off’ I’m ready.

    Maybe lose him in the desert. Or give him some peyote and hope his spirit animal is a big spender.

  176. Bronx Jeers January 14th, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Just curious, how many people have ticket plans ? Or had ticket plans and dropped them recently?

    ————————

    I dropped my Friday plan last season but I still go to games. It really had nothing to do with the team or how it’s run.

    I wasn’t crazy about my seats or their cost but what really killed me was the weekday- day game “taxation”. I think it was 20% last season.

  177. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:50 am

    JF-

    For all know Hal may have conquered all the “fourteeners” in the US before he was 16.

    :)

  178. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:51 am

    “According to japanese newspapers, the Yankees might give Matsui a 1 day contract and put him in the field with Ichiro & Kuroda as a farewell. Then he will officially retire. ”

    Or he could just stay and DH….that’d be cool… Hope they do it

  179. blake January 14th, 2013 at 11:52 am

    For all know Hal may have conquered all the “fourteeners” in the US before he was 16.

    Only if he’s stacked his money that high

  180. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:53 am

    Blake-

    Or become the assistant hitting Coach in charge of teaching “situational hitting”.

    :)

  181. Jerkface January 14th, 2013 at 11:53 am

    For all know Hal may have conquered all the “fourteeners” in the US before he was 16.

    They only slept with him for his money.

  182. MTU January 14th, 2013 at 11:54 am

    Otro threado —->

  183. Shame Spencer January 14th, 2013 at 11:54 am

    randy l. January 14th, 2013 at 11:42 am

    shame -

    have you read nate silver’s book or haven’t you?

    by the way,i don’t you and i have any real disagreement here.

    i see the world in probabilities and not certainties and i’m pretty sure you do too.

    ——————

    I haven’t read his book but I understand PECOTA’s methodology (which is different than Silver’s to some extent, from what I do understand). Again, it’s not about methodology, it’s about the difference in raw data.

    Politics and baseball aren’t the same thing so the value of the statistics are not the same thing and therefore the results can’t be applied in the same manner. You can apply either Silver’s or PECOTA’s methodologies to the same two raw data sets and still be wrong because of the basic differences in data and outcomes. You can compare the probabilities on a nuts and bolts level, sure, but people need to understand we’re talking about two entirely different things and simply applying the same methodology doesn’t give you the same level of accuracy in terms of results. We’re not disagreeing other than my general position that the analogy between the two (probability of elections vs. probability of baseball performance) isn’t a good one.

    I hate you all for making me revisit my statistics courses, btw. Only type of math where you can get two different outcomes and still have neither result be wrong.

  184. J. Alfred Prufrock January 14th, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    Rich in NJ January 14th, 2013 at 9:48 am

    one thing is for sure, nobody on this blog that i saw predicted #’s for montero last season that were as low as his statistics turned out to be.
    -

    It was foreseeable that he wouldn’t hit as well in Safeco as he would at YS, for which he has a tailor-made swing. Plus, some of mentioned that he might have to surmount a learning curve.
    ///

    This was something I sounded repeatedly in 2011 – I wanted him up reasonably early so that he could get through his learning curve and therefore be more useful to us down the stretch and into the playoffs. As it turned out, he hit out of the box and in the postseason, when given the chance. They were even walking the kid.

    But if he had been here for half or 3/4s of the season, he likely could have hit the ground running, as he did in the late call-up, and then swooned for a period of adjustment, before adapting again. My thought was, we could move the learning curve back and give his bat, having gone around the league a few times, a great chance for success during late-season division chase and in the playoffs.

    The season in Seattle was the learning curve that was bound to come in a first-season player, and he no doubt would have had some valleys last year with us. But, he would have been hitting in a park he was born to hit in, and would have had guys like Alex, Jeter, and Cano to insulate and instruct him.

    I have no doubt he will hit and when he does, he’s not going to look back. The bat is real; the “hype” is based on the hitting mechanics, the bat speed, and an incredible set of wrists.

    Trading that was ridiculous.

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