The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


The good, the bad and the mixed reviews

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 21, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

When I choose Pinch Hitter posts, I try to find both sides of an argument. I look for some guest posters with a pessimistic view, and I look for some who are firm optimists. When Daniel first emailed me to suggest today’s pinch hitter topic, his proposal was built around these two sentences:

I truly believe the only way the Yankees will compete this season and next with this austerity budget looming will be via trades for young impact players like Justin Upton. I have not seen Brian Cashman, in my opinion, make a feasible trade since 2008 and the Nick Swisher trade so my confidence is at an all time low.

I was expecting an indictment of Cashman’s trade history, not a conclusion of full confidence, and my guess is that Daniel wasn’t expecting that conclusion either.

It’s tricky business trying to make an absolute, black-and-white evaluation of any team’s trade, draft and free agent history. There are going to be highs and lows, and even those highs and lows — with a few exceptions — are going to come with mixed reviews. The Nick Swisher deal was an absolute win for the Yankees. The Pedro Feliciano signing was a clear loss. But those are in the minority.

The A.J. Burnett signing depends on how much weight you put into his 2009 World Series performance.

The Jesus Montero trade depends on how well Michael Pineda comes back from shoulder surgery.

The Javier Vazquez trade depends on the development of Dante Bichette Jr., and whether you believe the Yankees would have kept Melky Cabrera long enough to see him emerge (and whether you believe his emergence would have stained the clubhouse).

The Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy draft depends on how you feel about the Joba Rules and the Curtis Granderson trade, and the Curtis Granderson trade depends on how you feel about Granderson’s soon-to-be four years with the Yankees and whether the Yankees need a younger center fielder, and whether the Yankees need a younger center fielder might depend on the development of Slade Heathcott, who was only drafted as compensation because the Yankees were unable to sign Gerrit Cole in 2008, which was the same draft that yielded David Phelps, who might not have gotten a big league chance last season had Pineda not been injured and Burnett not been traded.

Point is, it’s hard to put any of this in a vacuum and make a definitive statement. On a case-by-case basis, we can argue and deliberate and form opinions, but the collective moves of a front office rarely fit under a universal heading. There are positives and negatives, fodder for the pessimists and the optimists alike, and that’s why we can spend an entire winter — each and every winter — having the same basic debate over and over again.

Associated Press photo

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106 Responses to “The good, the bad and the mixed reviews”

  1. 86w183 January 21st, 2013 at 12:06 pm

    Well said, Chad.

    The ability to maintain perspective is an important asset, and unfortunately all too uncommon.

    The Yanks will contend in 2013 if they stay healthy and some of the stars play like stars. Adding a bat or two for DH and depth is bound to happen.

    The 2014 Yankees will look nothing like this team with $ 100 M plus in expiring salaries.

  2. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:09 pm

    Oh, Tar, sorry, I misread you.

    It wasn’t necessarily a Mexican and apparently it wasn’t necessarily a Yankee FA.

    To your main point, which I didn’t acknowledge: yes, he does seem like he cherishes and nurtures slights or imagined ones.

    To me, that’s someone who is looking to rationalize and who lacks a certain healthy detachment. IOW, it’s not the mark of leader.

  3. DONNYBROOK January 21st, 2013 at 12:12 pm

    - CHAD -
    Just admit it. You got conned.

  4. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 21st, 2013 at 12:13 pm

    repost:

    “It’s not especially easy to be thoughtfully critical – a distinction I think you are failing to make.

    Plenty of posters here invest time in being thoughtfully critical, whatever their position on a given move, and carefully craft their arguments and attempt to support them well.”

    No question J Al. But for anyone to think that their carefully crafted argument should take and day and then is inconsolable when it doesn’t presupposes that the person knows every piece to the actual puzzle. That is simply not the case ever, because the only ones who know it are the ones making the decisions on the inside. We’re here discussing it today and for all we know, plans are being made for 7 new players to come aboard and 3 to be traded (total hypothetical, of course).

    And when I talked about being critical, I meant just that. The people who criticize based on their own desires and nothing more, not people who make carefully crafted arguments and support them but then realize at the end of the day that they might not have the total pulse on things and maybe their carefully crafted argument just might not work for some very good reasons – even if they themselves don’t have the reasons figured out!

    My thoughts though when I posted were really more generic and universal. It’s easier to criticize than to actually run an organization. I guess that’s pretty much a given.

  5. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 12:15 pm

    blake January 21st, 2013 at 9:20 am
    Bronx Jeers says:
    January 21, 2013 at 9:19 am
    The Pineda trade was fair and the Granderson trade was bad?

    Yea I think that one is backwards…..I think the Granderson deal may turn out a net loss in the long run but it was a fair deal at the time and the Yanks have gotten good value from it.

    Thus far the Yanks have gotten zero from the Pineda trade

    You talk about the Granderson deal “at the time” and then switch to “thus far” for the Montero trade. You also could say the Montero trade was a fair deal at the time and it remains to be seen if they will get fair value from it.

    Anyway, so far Montero had a – 0.2 WAR and Noesi had a – 0.7 WAR. Pineda and Campos 0.0.

    Seattle: – 0.9 WAR

    Yankees: 0.0 WAR

    Yankees are ahead.

  6. G. Love January 21st, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    Put a sock in it already. We get it, you can’t stand people who criticize. A lot of us can’t stand people who soapbox in every single post how their point of view is so much superior to the poor rabble who like to dissect the team’s moves.

    You win. Here’s a cookie.

  7. Shame Spencer January 21st, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    Again…. highly recommend The Impossible.

    I’m not much of a weepy person but I stopped watching this movie like an hour ago and I’m still crying lol. The sweet sounds of KClark (real Diva) probably didn’t help, her voice always brings me to tears. :lol:

  8. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:21 pm

    My thoughts though when I posted were really more generic and universal. It’s easier to criticize than to actually run an organization. I guess that’s pretty much a given.
    ///

    I would say it’s “easy” to be generic and “universal,” because it takes no real effort or discipline to be general and not remotely granular.

    Having said that, I have no problem with you’re being generic and what you call universal, as long as it isn’t an attempt to demean others who have taken the time and thought to discuss things in terms that are not generic.

    And I agree that it’s a “given” that one does not literally have every piece of information – what I don’t agree with is that this fact should entirely bring analysis to a halt or disable discussion that is specific to what the Yankees have done, or might do, in the future.

  9. disco stu January 21st, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    I think it is all catching up to the Yankees … they have so much money “baked in” and so little room with which to maneuver.

    They basically kicked the can down the road yet again by brining back aging, veteran, brittle talent on year deals (Ichiro’s 2 year deal nothwithstanding) and will hold their collective breaths that it all comes together.

    And what it doesn’t? What if they do, in fact, hit July and after a first half of poor play and injuries find themselves treading water for no more than outside shot at a WC slot?

    Will they make panic moves to hopefully bolster an already flawed roster or will they have the conviction to recognize that it is better in the long run to trade many of these expiring contracts away for more young, affordable talent and build for a future that is more than just another set of 1 year deals?

    Personally, if the Yankees are going to have “1965″ type season, then let it be this year and use it as an opportunity to trade pieces that other teams who are contending may be willing to give back younger talent for.

    The worst thing to happen for the Yankees is what I am already fearing … they win just enough to stay in contention all year, but ulitmately fall short of the playoffs and then watch as all of these players who are “one and done” for 2013 either sign elsewhere or retire next off season … and then, what do they do?

  10. Against All Odds January 21st, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    Yankees are ahead

    ————–

    I’ve seen this on other boards. How are the Yankees ahead of anything when both of the players they traded for went down with an injury.

  11. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 21st, 2013 at 12:28 pm

    “Point is, it’s hard to put any of this in a vacuum and make a definitive statement. On a case-by-case basis, we can argue and deliberate and form opinions, but the collective moves of a front office rarely fit under a universal heading. There are positives and negatives, fodder for the pessimists and the optimists alike, and that’s why we can spend an entire winter — each and every winter — having the same basic debate over and over again.”

    Absolutely Chad. And to take it a step further, probably every move ever made looks like the right move to an organization at the time of the move*, or they wouldn’t be making it. They’re the ones sitting at the drawing board, moving around the puzzle pieces and discussing possibilities most people probably never hear about. All we get to see is the final movement of the pieces. So all we have to judge them on is our own opinion of what should happen. And as we’ve all seen, there’s never unanimity of opinion on that! The complexity of it all is what causes me to adopt the KISS method for myself. I’m the classic “wait and see” kid because I personally couldn’t hope to begin to figure out the behind-the-scene machinations. That stuff is fascinating to some. It hurts my head. :)

    * – disclaimer. There might always be dissenting opinions, but the organization’s goal is to put out a winning product and so they make their decisions with that thought in mind, again sitting behind a very large drawing board with pieces of information that go into the puzzle but which may never see the public light of day.

  12. PRDENTIST January 21st, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    You have to be honest and say that the melky trade was a good one because melky was not getting any better and NO ONE thought he would improve the way he did. I believe that the PED helped him. We will know this year what it was.
    One aspect which nobody knows except the people in the clubhouse, the manager and coaches, and the GM is the personality a player brings to the clubhouse. I know that over the years, so have been traded or not resigned, no matter how good they are because they cause such a stink in the clubhouse. We will never know this aspect of the game and it makes evaluating trades to just stats and forgetting that these are people with all kinds of issues, off the field and in the clubhouse.

  13. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 12:32 pm

    Against All Odds January 21st, 2013 at 12:26 pm
    Yankees are ahead

    ————–

    I’ve seen this on other boards. How are the Yankees ahead of anything when both of the players they traded for went down with an injury.

    When the players they traded played below replacement level so far.

  14. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:34 pm

    Odds,

    That’s so disingenuous, it ain’t worth responding to. :D
    ///

    Yankeefem posted some interesting stats on Montero’s rookie second half. They bore out what I was seeing from him, better contact on breaking stuff, and he also had made one of his gazillion adjustments at the plate – this time, reducing considerably his front toe tap. Pulling the ball more, striking out less…

    He adapted well in that second half, which will now serve as his jumping off point this season.

  15. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:35 pm

    Yeah, good thing it’s all downhill from here for the 23 year old.

  16. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    I don’t think we really missed Montero much last year against LHP. We had McGehee, afterall.

    Advantage: Yankees.

  17. Against All Odds January 21st, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    The thing is the players they acquired are injured. I can’t see the trade as a wash or the Yankees ahead. They had big plans for Pineda

  18. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    PRDENTIST January 21st, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    You have to be honest and say that the melky trade was a good one because melky was not getting any better and NO ONE thought he would improve the way he did. I believe that the PED helped him. We will know this year what it was.
    ///

    Hmmm…must have been using when he hit .391 against the Angels in the 2009 ALCS.

    Or maybe he was juicing only with RISP in 2009? When he hit .298?

  19. Run it Out January 21st, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    Could someone help me out with a timeline? Did Levine start tampering in player personnel matters about the time Cashman’s mistress problems became public? That might signal a power shift in the FO.

  20. Against All Odds January 21st, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    Odds,

    That’s so disingenuous, it ain’t worth responding to

    ———-

    I’ve seen it in so many places. If you’re injured you can’t contribute

  21. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:34 pm
    Odds,

    That’s so disingenuous, it ain’t worth responding to.

    No more disingenuous than the crap in the previous thread.

    Not to mention waxing poetic about the romance of the game and wanting a guy who just cheated in the same breath. I guess cheating could be considered romantic by some though… politicians, investment bankers, pirates…

  22. RadioKev January 21st, 2013 at 12:45 pm

    Maybe we should just stop judging the Pineda/Montero trade based on 1 rookie year, and 1 injured year? I think we can all agree that the premise of the trade was fair at the time, but as for the results, it’s still all very up in the air.

    Forgot about Kerry Wood though…man that was a good trade.

  23. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    It might occur that a guy who is “clutch” may be aided by situational qualities, like he has the ability to make high percentage contact…might have something to do with it.

  24. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    Far from being “fair,” the premise of the trade – that we needed another pitcher instead of a young hitter – is part of a systemic problem that afflicts FO thinking.

    Their “hairy monster” no-contact philosophy is a real problem.

    Later.

  25. J. Alfred Prufrock January 21st, 2013 at 12:49 pm

    The “cheater” helped you win a World Series.

    Give it back, then. It’s “tainted.”

    Gotta run.

  26. Jerkface January 21st, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    Not to mention waxing poetic about the romance of the game and wanting a guy who just cheated in the same breath. I guess cheating could be considered romantic by some though… politicians, investment bankers, pirates…

    Cheating is in the DNA of baseball and its ‘romance’. From players cutting from 1st to third when the umpire wasn’t looking, to spitballs, to sign stealing, etc. Nevermind that working out to be in the best physical shape is not cheating, it can certainly co-exist with romanticism about the game.

  27. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 21st, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    J Al, you’ve twisted what I’ve said and certainly the intent of what I meant. A simple statement shouldn’t put you into a tizzy. And you should be able to assimilate the simple along with the complex as both actually do exist in life. I’ll say it again. There are people who are convinced they have all of the answers and so they sit back and do nothing but criticize when their way isn’t adopted. And then there are people who realize they don’t have all the answers but they have thoughts on how things could be made better and carefully craft their arguments and explain why they think the way they do.

    To me, the latter is always a welcome breath of fresh air.

    Try reading my statement about sitting back and criticizing in context of my entire post rather than to pull it out and read things into it that were never intended to be there.

    *************

    “A lot of us can’t stand people who soapbox in every single post how their point of view is so much superior to the poor rabble who like to dissect the team’s moves.”

    As usual your high emotion blinds you to what’s really being said. Keep up the good work!

    :)

  28. Jerkface January 21st, 2013 at 12:52 pm

    Taking steroids != pirates stealing lawfully owned goods or enslaving people, politicians going outside the bounds of their marriage, or the white collar crime of wall street.

    New years resolution for LOHUD should be to try to craft better analogies.

  29. Frankg January 21st, 2013 at 12:53 pm

    Chad seems to have tendency to depict each trade in one for one terms. The Granderson trade involved three valuable players going from the Yankees—Jackson, Kennedy, and Coke. The Vasquez trade involved other players, like Boone Logan and two young pitchers that the Yankees gave up, Mike Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino The Pineda trade involved other pitchers– Hector Noesi from the Yankees and Jose Campos from Seattle to New York.

    It takes a long time for the real value in trades to be evident. Cashman has shown himself to be a questionable trader… he usually gives up way too much and now can’t paper over his mistakes by signing whatever high priced free agents he wants.

  30. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 21st, 2013 at 12:55 pm

    “Maybe we should just stop judging the Pineda/Montero trade based on 1 rookie year, and 1 injured year? I think we can all agree that the premise of the trade was fair at the time, but as for the results, it’s still all very up in the air.”

    I agree with this. I no more put down Montero because he didn’t hit .300 in Seattle than I put down Pineda because he’s injured.

  31. yankeefeminista January 21st, 2013 at 1:01 pm

    Is it “putting down” a player or just differentiating between a healthy player who played, gained experience, and improved vs. an injured player who was didn’t play, had surgery, and may never again be the power arm the Yankees traded for? We all want Pineda to come back as the prospective arm the Yankees thought he was and we don’t know what the future holds, but right now that trade looks bad in the extreme. Even Cash himself declared the trade as a risk initially, and panned the trade after the injury. So, if Cash can say it, why not we? And again many of us agree that we were trading from weakness to add to a strength, and not the reverse. Our current pitching vs. hitting situation bares this out. We’ll see what the future holds, but right now if JS can quote WAR (as a be all – end all) then others can speak the unspeakable, Pineda DNP.

  32. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    for the past 16 years or so, the yankees have gone into each spring training with about a 95% chance of making the playoffs.

    what’s changed this year is it seems like it’s more like 60/40 they make it and in 2014 it’s looking 50/50 at best.

    for the mathematically challenged, this means it’s still possible for both outcomes, making the playoffs or not making the playoffs, to happen.

    the criticism i have is simply that hal, cashman , and co have lowered the chances considerably by the moves and non moves they have made.

    it’s all about probabilities and the yankees are trending towards 50/50 on making the playoffs and that’s not part of the mission statement we’ve grown up with.

  33. yankeefeminista January 21st, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    *bears (but the offense is bare, so there.)

  34. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:04 pm

    Whether or not you think Brian Cashman is the one to be making trades for the NY Yankees the process of trading must not grind to a halt or become paralyzed by a fear of failure.

    It is an essential part of baseball operations, and is necessary to help both gain value, as well to improve the Team.

    Either way the show must go on. With or without Cashman.

    ;)

  35. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    “You talk about the Granderson deal “at the time” and then switch to “thus far” for the Montero trade. You also could say the Montero trade was a fair deal at the time and it remains to be seen if they will get fair value from it.”

    Just stating facts….didnt say you could draw definative conclusions from it

  36. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    The Yankees are in “transition” whether they admit it openly or not.

    I start all discussion of the future with that basic premise in mind.

  37. Tar January 21st, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    Randy

    That’s a good question about odds. I wonder what the odds makers think of your percentages? Are the chances of the Yankees reaching the WS less this year, and if so by how much.

    Hopefully your sparring partner will interject.

  38. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    “Anyway, so far Montero had a – 0.2 WAR and Noesi had a – 0.7 WAR. Pineda and Campos 0.0.

    Seattle: – 0.9 WAR

    Yankees: 0.0 WAR

    Yankees are ahead.”

    Also….it’s very misleading to look at WAR this way….especially when you’re dealing with two healthy players vs two not healthy players

  39. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:11 pm

    “You have to be honest and say that the melky trade was a good one because melky was not getting any better and NO ONE thought he would improve the way he did. I believe that the PED helped him. We will know this year what it was.”

    Objectively the trade was terrible with how things unfolded…..the Yanks have a LOOGY and a BA season of Javy to show for it….

  40. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:13 pm

    Why not just give the Pineda/Montero trade some more time to play out ?

    It’s ultimate disposition is far from decided at this point FWIS.

    I like it here on the fence.

    You’re welcome to join me. There’s room for more.

    :)

  41. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:14 pm

    I think it’s fair to say its too early to judge the Montero trade….but it’s also fair and true to say that to this point it’s been a disaster. Hopefully Pineda will get healthy and change that….Campos too…..

  42. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:14 pm

    @cgrand14: “If u can’t fly then run, if u can’t run then walk, if u can’t walk then crawl, but whatever u do u have to keep moving forward.” #MLK

  43. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:18 pm

    Blake-

    The longer term outcome might negate the short term disaster.

    Time will tell. So let’s just wait and see.

    ;)

  44. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:23 pm

    Now what might be worth questioning form the get go is whether or not we should have traded potential O for Pitching.

    And many have. And many will continue to do so.

    I like to game the scenario sometimes by asking myself how I would feel if both Pineda and Montero
    had achieved what was expected of them last season ?

    In other words, if we had our #2 and Montero was a .300/20 Hr. guy who was at least a BUC.

    Which would we want then for our future ?

    Of course that’s all theoretical at the moment.

    ;)

  45. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:23 pm

    “The longer term outcome might negate the short term disaster.”

    That’s what we must hope for

  46. 86w183 January 21st, 2013 at 1:26 pm

    There’s nothing wrong with grading any trade at any point in time. Invariably the grade will change as time goes by.

    The Granderson trade looks worse now than in year one. the Montero trade may look a lot better in a year…… I sure hope it does.

    The odds of making the playoffs now versus then are just make believe. It’s silly to throw a baseless number out there.

    That said, I do believe the Yankees today are not as good as the team that opened 2012.

  47. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    @jaysonst: Another cool Stan Musial stat: Did you know his AVG (.331), OBP (.417) & SLG (.559) beat Willie Mays & Hank Aaron in ALL THREE categories?

  48. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    “That said, I do believe the Yankees today are not as good as the team that opened 2012.”

    They aren’t …..

  49. PRDENTIST January 21st, 2013 at 1:32 pm

    Prufrock: “Hmmm…must have been using when he hit .391 against the Angels in the 2009 ALCS.

    Or maybe he was juicing only with RISP in 2009? When he hit .298?”

    You are kidding me right? He hit .167 in the first round against twins and .167 in the WS against the Phils.

    OPS WAR
    2009 .752 .9
    2010 .671 -.5
    2011 .809 4.1
    2012 .906 4.7

    From 2009 and 2010 numbers, you can’t tell me that you expected him to go to what he did in 2012.

  50. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:34 pm

    Let’s roll with what we’ve got and see how we do.

    If we underperform there will be a lot of changes next season on a lot of levels I’d think.

    It should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

    A long time ago I tried to teach myself to always expect the unexpected.

    Both in the positive as well as negative direction.

    Life is just a teeny bit less shocking that way.

    ;)

  51. blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:39 pm

    @Mets: The #Mets have signed LHP Pedro Feliciano to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league Spring Training.

  52. austinmac January 21st, 2013 at 1:41 pm

    No, the team is clearly not as good as last year on paper. Could they perfrom better? It is possible but unlikely. I agree with Randy’s assessment of the chances. For 2014, I would say 20% chance considering they will have three enormous rotational holes to fill, multiple positions to fill and a closer’s job to fill.

    I would like to know when a team has made that many changes and been good. Even if they spent, it still seems almost insurmountable. Doing it on the cheap? Good luck. To make the playoffs the team would need more rookie contributions in 2014 than they have gotten in the last ten years combined.

  53. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 1:42 pm

    “I think we can all agree that the premise of the trade was fair at the time, but as for the results, it’s still all very up in the air.”

    what’s up with people and probability.

    you don’t have to understand advanced statistical analysis to understand the concept of probability.

    or the concept of increased risk.

    the montero/pineda trade had more risk at the time of the trade simply because young pitchers are more susceptible to career ending injuries.

    once pineda blew out his shoulder the risk is even higher.

    and the probability lower that pineda will hit the upside the yankees were looking for.

    as for montero , he keeps plugging along actually showing up everyday ready to play.

    right now the probability that monetro will have a good career compared to pineda is tilted highly in montero’s favor.

    but for those who like long shots, pineda may still win a cy young.

    is that a reason to make a trade like this?

    if you think so , brian cashman is your man.

  54. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:49 pm

    Randy-

    Agreed. The probability of Montero succeeding is higher than Pineda’s in the longterm merely because shoulder injuries have a relatively poor long term prognosis.

    Pineda will have to be a lucky one like Anibal Sanchez for the Yankees to make out.

    And your right when you say a Pitcher within the “injury matrix” with poor mechanics is a very risky bet compared with a position player.

  55. pat January 21st, 2013 at 1:49 pm

    BryanHoch

    After two years, $8 million and zero pitches thrown for the Yankees, Pedro Feliciano is back with the Mets on a Minor League deal.

    There’s $4M saved without missing a player.

  56. sevrox January 21st, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    What in hell is a ‘conclussion’?

  57. Against All Odds January 21st, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    If this was posted already then ignore it

    Core Values: New York Yankees

    http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/b.....rk-yankees

  58. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:51 pm

    How bout the American Idle.

    Another real winner.

    :(

  59. 86w183 January 21st, 2013 at 1:51 pm

    What in hell is a ‘conclussion’?

    ********************************

    It’s a head injlury

  60. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    A “conclussion” is an opinion formed immediately after sustaning a concussion.

    :)

  61. 86w183 January 21st, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    austinmac —-

    How can you put a % on the 2014 team’s playoff chances when about all we know about that team is A-Rod, Tex and CC will be on it… and Jeter probably will be too???

  62. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 1:54 pm

    mtu-

    people are being silly with the spin. sure you can go out in the desert on most public hiking trails with out enough water or proper survival gear and you’ll probably still make it back, but you’re rolling the dice when you don’t have to.

    eventually, the odds are going to bite you.

  63. theREALkevin January 21st, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    “Anyway, so far Montero had a – 0.2 WAR and Noesi had a – 0.7 WAR. Pineda and Campos 0.0.

    Seattle: – 0.9 WAR

    Yankees: 0.0 WAR

    Yankees are ahead.”

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAAH

  64. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 1:56 pm

    Randy-

    I only give that special treatment to Sux fans, and in that case I’m hoping they don’t beat the odds.

    :)

  65. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 1:57 pm

    http://www.fangraphs.com/stats.....ition=C/DH

    for 2013,does bill james really project montero for 22 homers and 82 rbis and .803ops?

    see for yourself

  66. Tar January 21st, 2013 at 1:58 pm

    “What in hell is a ‘conclussion’?”

    Websters: It’s when a conclusion hit you over the head and causes a concussion.

    See Montero trade :D

  67. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 2:05 pm

    Tar-

    See my 1:53 post.

    ;)

  68. Tar January 21st, 2013 at 2:08 pm

    MTU

    Isn’t it time to go walk the muppets? :D

  69. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    Tar-

    Already done.

    :)

  70. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:18 pm

    anyone know what a team’s expected won loss record would be if the whole team had a 0.00 WAR?

  71. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 2:20 pm

    blake January 21st, 2013 at 1:09 pm
    “Anyway, so far Montero had a – 0.2 WAR and Noesi had a – 0.7 WAR. Pineda and Campos 0.0.

    Seattle: – 0.9 WAR

    Yankees: 0.0 WAR

    Yankees are ahead.”

    Also….it’s very misleading to look at WAR this way….especially when you’re dealing with two healthy players vs two not healthy players

    I decided to start making posts on par with others.

  72. kschappert January 21st, 2013 at 2:20 pm

    Serious? Questions about whether Burnett deal was a success? Check his numbers and you’ll get the answer. A couple days in one postseason doth not make up for ’10 and ’11.

  73. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    “Questions about whether Burnett deal was a success?”

    my question is how did the pirates “fix” burnett when the yankees couldn’t?

  74. MTU January 21st, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    Catch you all later.

    Have a good one.

    :)

  75. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 2:26 pm

    Anyone know what WAR is?

    Wins above replacement.

    How much more valuable the player was than a replacement level player.

    A replacement level player is a minor leaguer or someone you can pluck from the scrap heap, or a low end bench player.

    Of course WAR is far from perfect, but so are many of the other “arguments” made on this blog.

  76. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    Tar January 21st, 2013 at 1:58 pm
    “What in hell is a ‘conclussion’?”

    Websters: It’s when a conclusion hit you over the head and causes a concussion.

    See Montero trade

    So those who have prematurely reached a conclusion for the Montero trade are similar to those suffering from a concussion?

    I concur.

  77. austinmac January 21st, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    86w183,

    The entire point of the low expectation is they will have to replace in one off season half or more of the 25 player roster. I believe the chances of doing that is extremely remote.

    The free agent list isn’t good and will get worse as players sign. Plus, they will have a budget to meet.

    I have asked board members how so much of the roster can be replaced with no response other than a vague trade, prospects and free agents. I get that those are the three ways to get players, but how can they do that in one winter?

  78. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    jacksquat-

    to give it some perspective, i ask again does anyone know what a team’s expected won loss record would be if the whole team had a 0.00 WAR?

    the way some people are using a 0.00 WAR , they seem to think that a0.00 WAR would have no value at all.

    in other words, a player that plays and has a 0.00WAR would have the same WAR as one that didn’t play at all or a lohud blogger for that matter. i mean bloggers have 0.00 WAR to don’t they?

  79. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    “So those who have prematurely reached a conclusion for the Montero trade are similar to those suffering from a concussion?”

    karl rove , is that you?

  80. austinmac January 21st, 2013 at 2:37 pm

    So if I understand jacksquat’s argument, it is better to have a player who doesn’t play at all than one who does. Dang, I am a more valuable player than Montero. What is my trade value?

  81. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 21st, 2013 at 2:39 pm

    “Is it “putting down” a player or just differentiating between a healthy player who played, gained experience, and improved vs. an injured player who was didn’t play, had surgery, and may never again be the power arm the Yankees traded for? We all want Pineda to come back as the prospective arm the Yankees thought he was and we don’t know what the future holds, but right now that trade looks bad in the extreme. Even Cash himself declared the trade as a risk initially, and panned the trade after the injury. So, if Cash can say it, why not we? And again many of us agree that we were trading from weakness to add to a strength, and not the reverse. Our current pitching vs. hitting situation bares this out. We’ll see what the future holds, but right now if JS can quote WAR (as a be all – end all) then others can speak the unspeakable, Pineda DNP.”

    Wow, that post is quite a leap from what Radiokev said, and what I agreed with!

  82. Tar January 21st, 2013 at 2:40 pm

    JS

    Pineda and Campos can swing the outcome of the trade in the Yankees favor. I like every Yankee fan hopes that is the case. There is no definitive answer on the ultimate outcome as of yet.

    However, I do feel comfortable with the ” conclussion” that it was an ill conceived and badly timed trade for the Yankees. Also there is no logical way to spin the first years results as being in favor of the Yankees.

  83. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:40 pm

    austinmac-

    i seriously would like to know the expected won loss record for a team that has a 0.00 WAR.

    hopefully jerkface or someone else will have the answer.

  84. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 2:41 pm

    A 0.00 War player is replacement level, meaning normal AAA minor leaguer, low level bench player, or similar players easily acquired via free agency or trade.

    So you could probably imagine what a team of 0.00 WAR players would look like. Worse than the Astros. Horrendous.

    You might say there is still some value in a warm body or 40-122 sort of way, but I don’t know how many people would agree.

  85. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    And I’m not saying Montero is horrendous or just a warm body. If he had just not played defense he would have had a positive WAR. He should be better this year.

    But, he didn’t do a lot last year all things positive and negative factored in, so I don’t think it’s fair to call that deal a disaster at this point.

  86. Tar January 21st, 2013 at 2:47 pm

    According to this Fangraphs page the Astros had a team war of 9.6.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leade.....;players=0

  87. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:47 pm

    “You might say there is still some value in a warm body or 40-122 sort of way, but I don’t know how many people would agree.”

    expected won loss record is a sabermetric stat correct?

    WAR is a sabermetric stat.

    why can’t the two be put together ?

  88. Tar January 21st, 2013 at 2:51 pm

    Maybe we change the term to “Wins Above Astros”.

    9.6 is the new zero

  89. Jerkface January 21st, 2013 at 2:52 pm

    Sports Reference sets replacement level at a .320 winning percentage for recent seasons. This means that we expect a team of replacement players to have a .320 win-loss percentage or a 52-110 record. We also set the value differently between the two leagues, since the AL has been shown to be the stronger league by inter-league play. This means that in the AL our replacement team might win 48 games while in the NL, 56 games.

  90. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:52 pm

    tar-

    nice link-

    what’s interesting is that the orioles were 25th in WAR, but they had one only 6 teams had a better won loss record.

    what’s up with that?

  91. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:56 pm

    “Sports Reference sets replacement level at a .320 winning percentage for recent seasons. This means that we expect a team of replacement players to have a .320 win-loss percentage or a 52-110 record. ”

    JF-

    thanks.

    so pineda does not have a 0.00 WAR when he doesn’t play.

    there is no way a player who doesn’t play wins 52 games.

  92. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 2:56 pm

    The Orioles had a crazy good record in one run games, implying they had a lot of luck.

  93. yankeefeminista January 21st, 2013 at 2:56 pm

    If Montero hadn’t catched, he’d have a positive WAR? Catching WAR is highly flawed, and if you are going to mention his catching WAR then why not mention his catching offense or his second half, highly improved splits. I can’t access them now b/c I’m at physical therapy, but both stats are pretty darn good, not to mention Montero’s road splits, but let’s quote WAR as some definitive and damning stat. Great job!

  94. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:57 pm

    rather, there is no way a team of players who don’t play win 52 games.

  95. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 2:58 pm

    “The Orioles had a crazy good record in one run games, implying they had a lot of luck.”

    or they could get one run or prevent one run better than other teams do.

    all runs are not equal.

  96. Jerkface January 21st, 2013 at 2:59 pm

    Comparing WAR for players who did not even play to those that did isn’t how I would go about analyzing the trade. Especially when Montero moved from a favorable stadium to a non-favorable stadium and players who are spending their first significant time in the majors are in no way guaranteed to have positive WAR but it is a necessary step that has to happen before positive contributions are realized.

  97. jacksquat January 21st, 2013 at 3:01 pm

    so pineda does not have a 0.00 WAR when he doesn’t play.

    there is no way a player who doesn’t play wins 52 games.

    But he (and Campos) is easily (and theoretically) replaced by a replacement player.

  98. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    “Especially when Montero moved from a favorable stadium to a non-favorable stadium and players who are spending their first significant time in the majors are in no way guaranteed to have positive WAR but it is a necessary step that has to happen before positive contributions are realized.”

    yes, i see bill james 2013 for montero for 2013 is very favorable.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/stats…..ition=C/DH

    22 homers and 82 rbis and .803OPS

    see for yourself

  99. Jerkface January 21st, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    But he (and Campos) is easily (and theoretically) replaced by a replacement player.

    Who provides nothing, and in the meantime your high ceiling players are gaining no experience and are no closer to realizing their ability to provide positive contributions to the club, and are infact further away than when you had acquired them to begin with. You never WANT to replace anyone with a replacement player. Especially not players with high ceilings who you are hoping are building towards a greater goal.

    Your incredibly shallow WAR analysis of the trade would be like deeming Mike Trout a failure as a prospect based on his negative WAR first season.

  100. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    jerkface-

    i would assume that people like me and most on this blog don’t really understand WAR .

    do players who don’t play at all get a 0.00 WAR?

    i would think they’d have no WAR.

    just like their batting average if they didn’t play is not .000 , it’s non existent .

  101. Jerkface January 21st, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    Bill James is very favorable for everyone, his projections are always extremely optimistic.

  102. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 3:08 pm

    he’s not loving jeter for 313.

  103. randy l. January 21st, 2013 at 3:09 pm

    2013

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