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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Pinch hitting: Joe Stief

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 22, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Today’s Pinch Hitter is Joe Stief, who grew up in Springfield, Virginia and as a teenager followed his father’s footsteps into becoming a Yankees fan (Joe’s dad grew up just 15 miles outside of New York City). That part of his story is worth knowing, but for this post, this part is most important: Joe is currently a junior studying finance at the Mason School of Business at the College of William & Mary.

For his post, Joe took a look at baseball contracts in a way the rest of use rarely do.

Every winter, teams give players long-term contracts worth millions. Traditionally we view these contracts in either annual value (Ex: Alex Rodriguez, $27.5 million per year) or total value (Ex: Alex Rodriguez, $275 million). But what if I told you that because of payment scheduling, A-Rod’s current contract is really worth $189 million dollars and averages only $19 million per year?

One of the core concepts in finance is called the time value of money; a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. The reason for this is not inflation, but rather because one must consider potential interest forfeited if they are to accept payment later. If you have a retirement fund, you know that the earlier you save, the longer your savings accumulate interest and the more money you have at retirement.

For the same reason that putting $5,000 in your 401(k) is more valuable when you’re 25 than it is at age 55, it is much better for Alex Rodriguez to receive his $275 million earlier rather than later.

Let’s say in 2008 the Yankees had offered Rodriguez $275 million in one lump sum in 2008 or 2018. He’d be crazy to not take the sum immediately because from 2008 to 2018 he could invest and grow the money. If we assume that A-Rod earns 10% on his money annually, the Yankees would have to give him $648 million ($250 x [1+10%]10) in 2018 to match the value of having $250 million in 2008. If we consider inflation, the amount the Yankees would have to give him in 2018 only increases.

But contracts aren’t paid as one lump sum, they are paid by year, so we discount each annual salary of Alex’s contract to arrive at the present value of the deal. We exponentially multiply the discount rate by the number of years from 2008 and divide each payment by the corresponding number. We then add up these annual discounted cash flows to find the net present value of the contract. The discount rate is the annual rate at which Alex’s money grows; I assumed 10%, but also included calculations at 5% and 15%. It is also assumed that the contract was signed on January 1 of 2008 and that each season’s payment is made on January 1 before the respective season.

Below is another table comparing the present value (at signing) of other mega-contracts:

On average, about 30% of the nominal value of a mega-contract is “lost” because of time value of money. Albert Pujols’s contract loses the most because his contract is very backloaded. He will earn $30 million in 2021, but in 2012 dollars, that $30 million is only worth $12.7 million. Joey Votto’s contract is for $4 million more than Prince Fielder’s, but because Fielder’s contract is shorter and not backloaded, his contract is really worth over $10 million more than Votto’s. Fielder and Votto’s contract illustrate my point well: because of time value of money, when a player is paid is just as important as how much.

Associated Press photo

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226 Responses to “Pinch hitting: Joe Stief”

  1. 4TrainNorth January 22nd, 2013 at 9:05 am

    Alma Mater hail!

  2. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:06 am

    blake says:
    January 22, 2013 at 9:05 am
    “A tend to not like Cuban hitters.”

    I tend to not like noodle bat hitters like Cito Culver either….they need more options

  3. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:06 am

    Yup. I understand the “time value of money concept”.

    For purposes of calculating the LT, etc. not sure it’s all that relevant though ?

    Another interesting concept is called the “opportunity cost” of money.

    Check that one out too.

    Time for the most important meal of the Day.

    ;)

  4. randy l. January 22nd, 2013 at 9:07 am

    blake-

    hal might be thinking of using a variation on the rules of what the weymouth street kids did up in the farmers field in the fifties. we only had enough kids for 8 players on each side, so the hitter had to hit to right field or left and center. we were missing an outfielder.

    maybe he’ll just cancel the dh against right handers.

  5. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:08 am

    Interesting post….

  6. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:08 am

    I can recall reading that Wilt Chamberlain used to get his salary upfront on the first day of the season, for precisely this reason.

  7. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:09 am

    Randy,

    Maybe so….I’m not sure what they are doing sometimes

  8. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:09 am

    Relative taxation also plays a part in this.

    A lump sum may be taxed at a higher rate than one that is paid out, and the State of residence also determines overall value.

    Some States have no income tax.

    There are all sorts of creative ways to structure contracts.

  9. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 9:12 am

    “I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.”

    :D

  10. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:12 am

    This is all assuming smart investmates and no stock market crashes of course….

  11. austinmac January 22nd, 2013 at 9:15 am

    If you saw the ball come off Cespedes bat, you might want to re-think the Cuban hitter thought. Of course, each player is different. I would not draw conclusions from anyone’s point of origin.

  12. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 9:15 am

    The above is why I’m hoping we can work something out with Cano that front loads a deal very heavily….. I think, unfortunately, the years will need to be more than planned to make the AAV work, but I love Cano so I’m okay with it ;)

  13. austinmac January 22nd, 2013 at 9:16 am

    Rich,

    Wilt may have needed the money up front if he followed the Jeter gift practice.

  14. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 9:16 am

    I’m assuming AAA is just talking bad habits which are likely products of not being able to play all the time and possibly less elite coaching. If the raw talent is there those things should all be correctable.

  15. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:16 am

    This is all assuming smart investmates and no stock market crashes of course….
    -

    You can always be short stocks or bonds or whatever.

    Remember the good old days when you could get 5% interest on a CD? Good times. ;)

  16. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:18 am

    austinmac

    Good point, and that would be a considerable expense for Wilt.

  17. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:27 am

    Whatever finance system, or techniques the Yankees are using it is all conditioned by 189 at the moment.

    If they are truly interested in keeping costs down and living within a smaller budget they need to think about extensions and trades.

    Those can both save money.

  18. randy l. January 22nd, 2013 at 9:28 am

    “If we assume that A-Rod earns 10% on his money annually,”

    joe,

    who can plan on a 10 % return?

    what if there’s an almost no interest environment for ten years ?

  19. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:30 am

    Can’t even plan on a 5% one.

    ;)

  20. Cashmoney January 22nd, 2013 at 9:33 am

    pretty sure no one is ever going to break Wilt’s record of sleeping with 10000 women, I did rough calculation, I believe the PV money equate to PV of virility in this case.

    Interesting post, remind me of my first finance reading, Maynard Keyes salutes you.

  21. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:34 am

    I invest ally money in children’s clothes which holds its value quite poorly

  22. randy l. January 22nd, 2013 at 9:34 am

    “Relative taxation also plays a part in this.

    A lump sum may be taxed at a higher rate than one that is paid out, and the State of residence also determines overall value.

    Some States have no income tax”

    mtu-

    the way i understand it players have to file income tax in states they play in that have income tax. in other words jeter must file mass income tax for the games he plays in boston.
    i think it’s based on the % of games played in boston.

    on deferred contracts that are paid after a player is done playing, i wonder if other states try to get their share of games that would have been played in their state.

    all i know is being an accountant specializing in the baseball contracts is probably a very profitable gig.

  23. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:34 am

    The Yankees had numerous opportunities to work around 189 but they chose not to.

    That was one of the things I took as a “clue”, or indicator that Hal might be prepping for sale down the road.

  24. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 9:35 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:34 am

    I invest ally money in children’s clothes which holds its value quite poorly

    ———————-

    The only way to get more value out of them is to have more kids to pass them off too… it’s a poorly constructed scheme.

    Cash – Gene Simmons might disagree :D

  25. austinmac January 22nd, 2013 at 9:37 am

    I forecast some months ago February would be the Yankees big shopping month after the other teams signed who they wanted. We are nearly there and still need a LH DH and a RH outfielder. The bargain bin shopping mart is now open.

    We have Abreu, Rivera, Johnson, Hafner and a few others available. I can’t wait.

  26. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:38 am

    Yeah Randy.

    A good Estate and Tax attorney can definitely make a mint.

    Players need to have them. Anyone who makes a significant amount of money needs to have one.

  27. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 9:39 am

    Where’s trisha lol:

    @SportsCenter

    JUST IN – Tom Brady is being reviewed by league officials for his slide/kick in AFC Championship (via @Edwerderespn)

    From now on, whenever trisha and I disagree I will change the discussion to be about Tom Brady’s neanderthal face and we will immediately be back on the same page.

  28. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:39 am

    pretty sure no one is ever going to break Wilt’s record of sleeping with 10000 women
    -

    Quentin Tarantino (sp) recently revealed that his mother was a member of that select group.

    I am not sure why she felt he needed to know that.

  29. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 9:41 am

    We have Abreu, Rivera, Johnson, Hafner and a few others available. I can’t wait.

    ——————

    Wasn’t Abreu signed? Or were there just rumors about Boston signing him? I thought he might not be a bad pick up a year or two ago… strictly as a DH I don’t hate the idea.

  30. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:42 am

    “We have Abreu, Rivera, Johnson, Hafner and a few others available. I can’t wait.”

    If Cashman makes a move it’s the right one. Get with the program!

  31. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:42 am

    Can the baseball season please start soon ?

    Thanks in advance,

    MTU

  32. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:42 am

    When boras takes Cano into January or February next winter….how are the Yankees going to manage that?

    Are they going to put everything on hold and wait on him….keeping 25 million or so in the budget open for him? Are they going to move on early ? What will they do?

  33. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:46 am

    Blake-

    If they want Cano they will have to pay thru the nose for him.

    He will not come cheap. There will be plenty of competition.

  34. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:46 am

    Are they going to put everything on hold and wait on him….keeping 25 million or so in the budget open for him? Are they going to move on early ? What will they do?
    -

    Good point. I hope Hal and Randy have this gamed out because a deal of this magnitude will be out of the GM’s hands.

  35. austinmac January 22nd, 2013 at 9:47 am

    Shame, I haven’t heard of Abreu signing elsewhere, but it is conceivable I missed the note in the transactions corner of the newspaper.

    MTU, I really need baseball activity to start. This long, disappointing winter needs to be replaced by seeing our prospects play. I peruse on-line the NY newspapers for Yankee notes. It is dead as dead can be.

  36. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:48 am

    Got to get ready soon.

    Hike day today.

    :)

  37. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:48 am

    @mlbtraderumors: Reds Sign Jacob Constante http://t.co/I0V7wdZG #mlb

    This was one YF wanted I think

  38. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:50 am

    It was. $12m for Youk, but nothing for a talented kid.

  39. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:50 am

    I expect the Cano situation to play out similarly to the way the Greinke talks did…..the Dodgers will hang around for awhile and posture and then they’ll throw up a huge number and dare the Yankees to match it.

  40. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:52 am

    730 K for a 19 year old lefty that’s 92-94 with a good slider…..too risky….lets sign Freddy Garcja again!

  41. Rich in NJ January 22nd, 2013 at 9:52 am

    That makes sense, but as you alluded to, will their hand be tied while they wait?

  42. MTU January 22nd, 2013 at 9:53 am

    Blake-

    Or the Yankees might “CC” Cano and just blow everyone else away immediately.

    But if they do that they will be paying market value for a great many years.

    Probably more years than they should.

  43. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:54 am

    Rich in NJ says:
    January 22, 2013 at 9:52 am
    That makes sense, but as you alluded to, will their hand be tied while they wait?

    Probably….if they plan to get under 189 then they have to make sure they save enough room for Cano under the cap.

  44. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:56 am

    Cano and boras will have all the leverage…..especially if the Yanks can’t add another impact bat this winter. Had they signed Hamilton or traded for Upton then at least they’d have somebody there should Cano leave…..

  45. austinmac January 22nd, 2013 at 10:00 am

    I doubt the Yankees had any international signing money left. Correct?

  46. randy l. January 22nd, 2013 at 10:09 am

    “Can the baseball season please start soon ?”

    what , the sound of ball on bat or green grass and blue sky are better than actuarial tables.

    what are you, some kind of neanderthal luddite?

  47. DONNYBROOK January 22nd, 2013 at 10:13 am

    I do NOT understand why a Real Baseball fan should care whether the Yankees are paying A-Rod more or less due to “time value”. Knowing this ain’t gonna lower what I pay for a ticket, or a dog at the game, or the Extra Innings Package on Direct TV. This info has NO Relevance to your core baseball fan. NONE.

  48. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:14 am

    austinmac says:
    January 22, 2013 at 10:00 am
    I doubt the Yankees had any international signing money left. Correct?

    I’m really not sure about that….Diaz doesn’t count though so unless they just don’t think he’s any good is think they should sign him. The Cubs seem to be most in on him and they have Castro and their best prospect is also a SS

  49. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:18 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:52 am

    730 K for a 19 year old lefty that’s 92-94 with a good slider…..too risky….lets sign Freddy Garcja again!
    ///

    What happened to pitching, pitching, pitching??

    Lefty that young, who can sit low-to-mid nineties with a good slider should be an obligatory signing for us. Damn.

  50. Bronx Jeers January 22nd, 2013 at 10:18 am

    First Spring training game is 32 days away.

    Sat. Feb 23rd 1:05pm Yanks @ Braves.

  51. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:19 am

    The Yanks may not have had enough money left to sign him without going over the international limit ….and we all know how important that is

  52. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:21 am

    My brother just sent me an email from work that ended on this note:

    “Yank pitching looks ok but we have no lineup at all.”

  53. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:22 am

    “I tend to not like noodle bat hitters like Cito Culver either….they need more options”

    At least he spent the whole offseason at the complex, working on his swing path. Here’s hoping.

    “blake January 22nd, 2013 at 9:48 am
    @mlbtraderumors: Reds Sign Jacob Constante http://t.co/I0V7wdZG #mlb

    This was one YF wanted I think”

    Yes, a lefty with big upside; I both wanted him and said we would not sign him (sigh).

    At least to be fair, last year we signed two IFA’s ranked in the top five, but we should have been taking advantage while we had the chance.

  54. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:23 am

    If Diaz can really hit they need to be seriously in.

  55. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:23 am

    At least Diaz doesn’t count against the IFA cap… Not that I expect us to sign him either. I think his D may be a little shady, but the bat sounds promising.

  56. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:24 am

    “At least he spent the whole offseason at the complex, working on his swing path. Here’s hoping.”

    Yea that’s great….but my point was that the Yanks shouldn’t be sitting around hoping Culver will learn how to hit….they need to be adding more options if possible in hopes one of them can replace Jeter when that time comes

  57. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:25 am

    I mean I hope Elvis Andrus replaces Jeter….but you just can’t count on stuff like that anymore

  58. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Reports are that Diaz can hit for power and average, we need to get this guy. Did anyone sign that Alvarez kid?

  59. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:26 am

    @JSalisburyCSN: Phillies are considering signing Delmon Young. Story here: http://t.co/iP3D1cW9

  60. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:27 am

    Diaz supposed to have a strong arm as well as hit tool and power. Get him and I’ll take a softer stance in here…..maybe. :D

  61. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:28 am

    Fine. Don’t want Young, even though he hits against us in playoffs.

  62. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:29 am

    The lefty factor is big re: Constante, but at least we signed the Cuban Omar Luis Rodriguez (lefty) last season… I’m excited to see what he’ll do this year. :)

  63. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:30 am

    The penalties aren’t as severe internationally as they are in the draft…..you just get fined more or less to my understanding….not like losing draft picks etc . The Yanks should still go over the international limit for players they like….but they probably wont

  64. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:31 am

    Wow, this feels a lot like last offseason: “sign the Cubans”.

  65. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:32 am

    blake, we do have some very young but rangy hit tool short stops in the system. However, they haven’t yet come stateside.
    Avelino, Mateo, Baez. And don’t forget Custodio…

  66. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 10:32 am

    I’m not worried about Cano hanging around until Feb, because I think he’ll be one of the first pieces that has to fall next year to set up the market. With a guy like him, I wouldn’t expect it to drag until January. I think the Grienke/Hamilton negotiations were about right regarding a time table for Cano.

  67. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:33 am

    J. Alfred Prufrock says:
    January 22, 2013 at 10:31 am
    Wow, this feels a lot like last offseason: “sign the Cubans”.

    Yea….and the Yankees not signing the Cubans

  68. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:35 am

    “blake, we do have some very young but rangy hit tool short stops in the system. However, they haven’t yet come stateside.
    Avelino, Mateo, Baez. And don’t forget Custodio…”

    Yea and that’s great ….but they need to throw as many at the wall as possible and Diaz is closer it seems…..also….at the moment there really isn’t any greater trade currency than SSs…..most needs need them and there aren’t many good ones.

  69. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:37 am

    Probably why you see Theo interested in Diaz….even though they already have Castro and Baez…..SSs can either be moved to 3B, 2B, or even OF usually and they can also be traded for other stuff…..good to stockpile there

  70. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 10:39 am

    mac – Just looked it up and you’re right, Abreu is still on the board….. yay…?

  71. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:40 am

    My guess is we won’t be in on the higher profiled IFAs because the bidding won’t suit Hal’s palate, even though there’ll be no cap impact for signing Diaz (and I think, Alvarez, who has played pro ball).

    Already they’re lining up to bid on these guys and the Yanks lately seem to make token bids on guys like that and end up signing “lower profile” guys. That’s fine, if those are good signings.

    What you like about Diaz, though, is the young hit tool/power combo being reported, and that maybe he comes polished enough to make an impact now, whether as a SS or 3B. Never seen him, but sounds like he can really hit.

  72. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:41 am

    Kubel would be a great DH….but I think the Dbacks are committed to moving Upton now and they won’t trade them both

  73. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:42 am

    If Diaz can hit but can’t play SS…..then we kinda could use a 3B too

  74. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:43 am

    There’s talk about Detroit – which makes perfect sense. Peralta is dreadful.

  75. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:44 am

    You just get hit with a penalty if you overspend on IFA’s, so if the player is worth the penalty, you can still sign him.

  76. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:45 am

    Right. ATM, we have Youkilis. And they don’t seem interested in giving Adams a look just yet.

    Best case scenario: Jeter comes back strong, Youk goes down, and we have this guy to roll out at 3B and he makes an immediate impact :D.

    They don’t seem willing to allow Nuney to work it out at 3rd.

  77. Chip January 22nd, 2013 at 10:45 am

    That’s one more right-handed outfield bat to put in the mix. Neal got into nine games for the Indians last season, and he’s put up pretty good minor league numbers.

    Unfortunately none of those good numbers came above AA

  78. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 10:46 am

    Kubel is not worth any high-end prospects. That would be an overpay if it happened. He’s not a good OF, either.

  79. jacksquat January 22nd, 2013 at 10:47 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 7:11 am
    Who is gonna DH for the Yanks Vs RHP?

    Well, they still have Dickers- oh wait…

  80. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 10:48 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:42 am

    If Diaz can hit but can’t play SS…..then we kinda could use a 3B too

    ——————

    He doesn’t have a position!!! ;)

  81. Chip January 22nd, 2013 at 10:48 am

    yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:44 am

    You just get hit with a penalty if you overspend on IFA’s, so if the player is worth the penalty, you can still sign him.
    —————–

    The IFA money pool is only for players under the age of 23 – guys like Diaz and Alvarez are both over 23 (as is the Cuban SS who defected earlier last week) so they would not count against that pool. It’s the same way that signing Japanese FA’s don’t count against it.

  82. Chip January 22nd, 2013 at 10:51 am

    jacksquat January 22nd, 2013 at 10:47 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 7:11 am
    Who is gonna DH for the Yanks Vs RHP?

    Well, they still have Dickers- oh wait…
    —————

    Chris Dickerson was a 30 year old career minor leaguer – if he was DHing for the Yankees then that’s an even bigger problem.

    There’s still plenty of time before ST and plenty of options still on the board.

  83. Chip January 22nd, 2013 at 10:52 am

    From what I’ve heard – neither Diaz or Alvarez are ML ready – Diaz is the closer of the two; but he wouldn’t be someone to come in and start on opening day.

  84. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:55 am

    “From what I’ve heard – neither Diaz or Alvarez are ML ready – Diaz is the closer of the two; but he wouldn’t be someone to come in and start on opening day.”

    He wouldn’t need to be …but if he’d have a chance to be ready next year then that’d be cool

  85. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:57 am

    “There’s still plenty of time before ST and plenty of options still on the board.”

    Options yea…. Good options though …. Not really

  86. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 10:59 am

    @keithlaw: “No, Delmon, you won’t get to *throw* the batteries…”

  87. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 10:59 am

    Chip, that’s the point about Diaz. I have been saying since beginning of Jan. that because he turned 23 on Jan. 8th, he’s exempt.

  88. Jerkface January 22nd, 2013 at 11:00 am

    Shame,

    responding to your point the prior thread. Plate discipline issues are generally not ‘trainable’. You can coach kids on their swing and mechanical stuff, but the ability to see a pitch and not swing at it is kind of ingrained talent. Its not immutable, but you rarely see guys who don’t walk suddenly learn the patience to do so. The most obvious changes are in the opposite direction (where guys who walked a lot get more aggressive as their tools age to compensate)

  89. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:00 am

    We also signed those two Nicaraguan lefties, which ate up the rest of our budget. I forget their names…

  90. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:01 am

    If he’s not ready, send him to Trenton, where there is currently a hole at SS. :)

    Let him get oriented and when Youk goes down, we can plug in a right-handed bat IN HIS TWENTIES who is supposed to hit for both .average and power: what a concept.

    This would be much preferable to wasting one of our top two CF prospects or, god forbid, Sanchez to bring a bat here to help us in the now.

  91. Jerkface January 22nd, 2013 at 11:01 am

    The IFA money pool is only for players under the age of 23 – guys like Diaz and Alvarez are both over 23 (as is the Cuban SS who defected earlier last week) so they would not count against that pool. It’s the same way that signing Japanese FA’s don’t count against it.

    Yea, this is absolutely right, the guys who defected recently won’t fall under the cap. I should clarify that a japanese player under 23 would fall under the IFA pool rules though.

  92. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:02 am

    LHP Nicaraguans: Corby McCoy and Luis Garcia are their names.

  93. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:04 am

    “This would be much preferable to wasting one of our top two CF prospects or, god forbid, Sanchez to bring a bat here to help us in the now.”

    Depends on who the bat is ;)

  94. ron January 22nd, 2013 at 11:04 am

    the yankees can’t sign 6 players for over 115 million,then hope the farm system can fill the rest of the holes while jeter,ichiro,arod,tex,cc,cano decline,and play less.
    Also,you don’t need the best offense in the league,or even the top ten to win a ws.
    Free agents are expensive,and the yankees have to stop paying max dollars for every player,every year.
    The rs pay a player 5 million,it costs the yankees 9 million,and that goes on for every player,ever position.
    Cano is going to absolutely break the bank,and he simply isn’t worth it.

    We are a better team trading cano for a stud 3b,and pitching prospect,then signing a few free agents,just like cleveland did when they traded choo,replaced him with swisher.They also made themselves a more watchable team by signing swisher.
    Fans do not like stagnance,and lineups need to be flipped.

    All you need is great pitching,and a nice 3-5 batting order,and the rest just good contact,obp,split players that play defense well.
    How much worse as a team would we be by trading cano for a maximum return like a good 3b,and maybe 1 stud pitching prospect,then signing swisher,or make a play for morse?

    This is how baseball has to be done,imo,not the way the yankees are doing it now.
    Every year an offensive player like cano,pujols,etc… hit the market,and get paid max dollars,but try to find 2 elite prospects that are close to the majors,or try drafting,and developing your own.

    Trade cano,granderson,hughes for a busload of top prospects,even if it is only 4 of them,and then wait til an opportunity comes to add an offensive player.

  95. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:07 am

    Melky has developed more plate discipline as a ML. If you have good pitch recognition a compact swing and balance, you can train yourself to lay off pitches you might have swung at or previously put into play to little avail.

  96. Shame Spencer January 22nd, 2013 at 11:07 am

    Jerkface January 22nd, 2013 at 11:00 am

    Shame,

    responding to your point the prior thread. Plate discipline issues are generally not ‘trainable’. You can coach kids on their swing and mechanical stuff, but the ability to see a pitch and not swing at it is kind of ingrained talent. Its not immutable, but you rarely see guys who don’t walk suddenly learn the patience to do so. The most obvious changes are in the opposite direction (where guys who walked a lot get more aggressive as their tools age to compensate)

    ————————-

    Gotcha.. but saying that someone doesn’t like Cuban hitters seems a little off. AAA hasn’t come back to explain what he doesn’t like about Cuban hitters, but I was surmising it has something to do with their approach, which seems like something that could be corrected over time or at least honed to capitalize on specific talents.

  97. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:08 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:04 am

    “This would be much preferable to wasting one of our top two CF prospects or, god forbid, Sanchez to bring a bat here to help us in the now.”

    Depends on who the bat is ;)
    ////

    Not for Sanchez it doesn’t.

  98. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:10 am

    Not trading Sanchez either. Blake, you need to see him hit live.

  99. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:11 am

    “Not for Sanchez it doesn’t.”

    Sure it does….Sanchez is the guy Id least want to deal but he’s still a prospect who hasn’t been to AA yet….far from a sure thing. The Yanks don’t have any untouchables for the right player IMO….

  100. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:11 am

    Dickerson, at 30, was too young for Cash’s taste :D.

    Further, he has a very nice swing and even though they would have platooned him, and I don’t know his splits in miL, he could school Grandy about approach vs. lefties, from what I saw.

  101. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:13 am

    I disagree Blake. Sanchez is under lock and key (in my safe, anyway).

  102. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:13 am

    yankeefeminista says:
    January 22, 2013 at 11:10 am
    Not trading Sanchez either. Blake, you need to see him hit live.

    I’ve seen Justin Upton hit live

  103. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:14 am

    yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:10 am

    Not trading Sanchez either. Blake, you need to see him hit live.
    ///

    Me neither :D. “This shall not be revoked!”

  104. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:14 am

    J. Alfred Prufrock says:
    January 22, 2013 at 11:13 am
    I disagree Blake. Sanchez is under lock and key (in my safe, anyway).

    Just like Betances :). I kid I kid

  105. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:14 am

    Justin Upton isn’t a catcher.

  106. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:14 am

    JUps isn’t a catcher

  107. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:15 am

    blake,

    I think we’re going to find that reports of Betances’ demise are premature.

    Stick around ;).

  108. Jerkface January 22nd, 2013 at 11:15 am

    Gotcha.. but saying that someone doesn’t like Cuban hitters seems a little off. AAA hasn’t come back to explain what he doesn’t like about Cuban hitters, but I was surmising it has something to do with their approach, which seems like something that could be corrected over time or at least honed to capitalize on specific talents.

    Yea I’m assuming he is talking about plate discipline issues, but unlike the DR Cuba does produce some walkers. Yasmani Grandal, Cespedes, Alonso, and Escobar all walk to varying degrees. A lot of the other guys don’t though, and thats not something that can change.

    What you see is what get on guys walk rates. What you hope is that they learn some discipline in the zone and swing at good pitches, but hard to expect them to wait for 4 balls :)

    I will take any hitter from anywhere, so long as he hits though.

  109. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:16 am

    Snakes don’t have to have Sanchez in the deal. They have their own catcher spec. They cannot have ours.

  110. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:16 am

    yankeefeminista says:
    January 22, 2013 at 11:16 am
    Snakes don’t have to have Sanchez in the deal. They have their own catcher spec. They cannot have ours.

    Well that woukd be preferable yea

  111. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:16 am

    I read that OBrien is raking in BP in Tampa, btw. But he is one who really might not stick at catcher. Hopefully, Sanchez will.

  112. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:17 am

    J. Alfred Prufrock says:
    January 22, 2013 at 11:14 am
    Justin Upton isn’t a catcher.

    The Yankees probably don’t think Sanchez is either

  113. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:18 am

    “I think we’re going to find that reports of Betances’ demise are premature.”

    QFT!

  114. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:18 am

    @fangraphs: RotoGraphs: Which Ichiro Will Show Up In 2013? http://t.co/G4rUuAtk

  115. bruceb January 22nd, 2013 at 11:19 am

    This question has probably already been posed and answered but having been away for the long weekend, I will raise it again.

    Pedro Feliciano earns $8 million over two years from the Yankees, never throws a pitch, and then returns to the club that allegedly abused him, thus causing his shoulder injury. I’m wondering whether the Yanks will be able to recover all or some of this money through insurance?

  116. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:19 am

    yankeefeminista says:
    January 22, 2013 at 11:18 am
    “I think we’re going to find that reports of Betances’ demise are premature.”

    I think he’s got a chance to be a useful reliever

  117. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:20 am

    blake, I saw that one coming ;)

    They probably don’t. “They” need to go, not Sanchez.

  118. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:20 am

    Well, theory in the DR is that players don’t walk much because they are trying to show off their hit tool, and research has backed up that those who show off hit tool/pop even if lower walk rates, OBP are the ones who get the big contracts. These kids want to get to mlb, so they aren’t too concerned about plate discipline. They want to make contact even on pitches outside the zone.

  119. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:22 am

    “They probably don’t. “They” need to go, not Sanchez.”

    Well that’s a fair point….

  120. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:23 am

    I want to keep Sanchez and there are only a handful of players Id actually trade him for…..that’s pretty high praise for a guy in A ball

  121. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:23 am

    blake, yeah, well I know what you think, but I think differently. It’s far too early to go that route. If they can use him later in season that way, temporarily, I could see it happening, but he still has more value as a SP. He’s shown better control in past and he does have a pretty darn good changeup when he is using it.

  122. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:23 am

    That would be a very disappointing compromise.

    I want to see them shelve that short stride and turn him loose to drive through his delivery (instead of pausing at the top). That has robbed him of what makes him so special.

    Betances will test how “useful” Patterson may be.

  123. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:24 am

    blake, again he may be in A+ ball, but his bat is ready to move up. So, a mere technicality.

  124. PacoDooley January 22nd, 2013 at 11:25 am

    Numbers look wrong to me – when I last looked I am pretty sure I saw that Alex’s salaries go down through the years, not up. Look at Cot’s data and I think that this is what it shows. Indeed, but 2014 I don’t think he will be in the top 10 in salary any longer.

  125. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:26 am

    Speaking of which, what is the problem with our young pitchers and lack of leg drive? Is that by design? Are we stoopid? Why do we take all the power away from our pitchers’ cores when we tweak their deliveries? Definitely true of Betances and that new delivery. I get their goal, but it ain’t working. Ditto, Joba. Hughes you can blame the hamstring injury, but still…

  126. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:26 am

    YF,

    Yea…that’s fine….I’ve said from the first time I saw him pitch that I didn’t like his delivery and that I didn’t think he was athletic enough to repeat it well enough to start in the big leagues ….I really haven’t seen much to change my mind….maybe I will this year….Id love that

  127. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:27 am

    yankeefem, Sanchez is the one I am waiting on down here. Hope he makes it through the 3/4 mark, roughly when I anticipate he may receive a promotion.

  128. PacoDooley January 22nd, 2013 at 11:28 am

    Right, here are the data from Cot’s – this post is totally off track and so the conclusions are totally useless. Here are the values from the Cot’s data:

    08:$27M, 09:$32M, 10:$32M, 11:$31M, 12:$29M, 13:$28M, 14:$25M, 15:$21M, 16:$20M, 17:$20M

    Doesn’t drop off as fast as I thought, but it does go down. This doesn’t include the milestone payments and I am not sure about the signing bonus, which was front loaded.

  129. Jerkface January 22nd, 2013 at 11:28 am

    Well, theory in the DR is that players don’t walk much because they are trying to show off their hit tool, and research has backed up that those who show off hit tool/pop even if lower walk rates, OBP are the ones who get the big contracts. These kids want to get to mlb, so they aren’t too concerned about plate discipline. They want to make contact even on pitches outside the zone.

    Yea which is why teams should be setting up academies there and emphasizing the total package offensively. Here is a great piece by Jorge Arangure about why dominican players suffer from a lack of plate discipline, has to do with a lack of organized ball. No one likes taking a walk in a backyard game. Get these kids playing early, emphasize a full approach, and the DR players will start producing more guys with discipline instead of the random exceptions.

    http://www.baseballprospectus......leid=18731

  130. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:30 am

    Sanchez had a .766 OpS at Tampa last year and hasn’t really mashed since the GCL….Montero was oPSing .989 at Tampa at the same age

  131. Mike Ri January 22nd, 2013 at 11:31 am

    WFAN — JOE B.. What are the Yankees doing ???

    ——————-
    Thats the million dollar question Joe

  132. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:31 am

    Definitely true of Betances and that new delivery. I get their goal, but it ain’t working. Ditto, Joba. Hughes you can blame the hamstring injury, but still…
    ///

    YF, I liked what you dug up about Patterson letting the pitchers weigh in on their own mechanics.

    I’m not a pitching technician, but I feel certain that too much messing around with something that is obviously arcane is a bad, bad policy. Joba was always “armsy” but you can really see a difference in terms of driving forward and their tweaks. Hughes I agree is probably a lot to do with the hamstring. In ST it was great to see him lower to the ground and driving to the plate more.

    In Dellin’s case, there’s a dramatic difference, before and after, no question. Last year they cut his legs from under him to a comedic level. No wonder he had such a miserable year.

  133. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:32 am

    Doesn’t mean Samchez won’t be awesome….but his bat is professing slower than Montero’s did

  134. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:35 am

    I got into a little debate about Sanchez vs. Montero on Pinstripes.

    I finally realized that once you’re an ex-Yankee, no one wants to hear about your swing and bat speed.

    Though not Montero, Sanchez is going to be really good.

  135. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:35 am

    I do hope Patterson can help our youngsters….he did a great job in oakland

  136. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:36 am

    Except is Patterson doing the mechanical tweaking? Sounds like in Oakland, he was the more mental part of the game guy vs. Romanick’s role with the A’s young pitchers. Also don’t look now but Nardi is still working with our pitchers Tampa and in the DL, Rony Bautista to name one. Although he is a project, he’s a lefty who at 6’7 will likely have because of his size, some control issues. But another one, along with DePaula, who I can’t wait to see live. I think we’ll get Bautista in SI in 2013. At least to start.

  137. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:38 am

    If Patterson can get Betances back to where he was in 2010, which most of you had no access to seeing much of, well the ground on the “young pitching” landscape dramatically shifts.

  138. jacksquat January 22nd, 2013 at 11:38 am

    Chip January 22nd, 2013 at 10:51 am

    Chris Dickerson was a 30 year old career minor leaguer

    30 is young for this team.

    And he at least has 599 major leage PA.

    He also had a .932 OPS in AAA last year.

    He also is athletic enough to play CF.

    He’s better than anything else we have right now and a lot of the other free agents left imo.

    He could have subbed for all our OF’s to rest them similar to how Nunez could sub for Jeter vs lhp.

  139. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:41 am

    Well this is a good question, YF, but I have a feeling he will have a lot to say.

    Was it Nardi, or Aldred, or a combination, or higher up, that turned Betances into a eunuch last season?

    Maybe someone said, look, he’s running out of time, just make him throw strikes at any cost.

  140. J. Alfred Prufrock January 22nd, 2013 at 11:46 am

    blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:30 am

    Sanchez had a .766 OpS at Tampa last year and hasn’t really mashed since the GCL….Montero was oPSing .989 at Tampa at the same age
    ///

    Yeah, good thing he doesn’t have to compete with Montero in the future!

    Well done, Cash :D

  141. jacksquat January 22nd, 2013 at 11:48 am

    If Sanchez can get his OPS low enough, Girardi might consider him.

  142. Tackelberry January 22nd, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Mike Ri January 22nd, 2013 at 11:31 am
    WFAN — JOE B.. What are the Yankees doing ???

    ——————-
    Thats the million dollar question Joe

    __________________________________________

    He’s a Met fan. What does he care?

  143. ericns1 January 22nd, 2013 at 11:50 am

    Hey if Hal (aka Stat Sheet 189) doesn’t care about putting a first-rate product on the filed why should we fork over for expensive seats, and food. Maybe less attendance and lower TV subscriptions will cause him to take notice.

  144. blake January 22nd, 2013 at 11:52 am

    jacksquat says:
    January 22, 2013 at 11:48 am
    If Sanchez can get his OPS low enough, Girardi might consider him.

    That’s true….needs to get it down at least 150 more points

  145. yankeefeminista January 22nd, 2013 at 11:52 am

    :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

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