Pirates lesson: What not to do
Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 24, 2013 
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I usually try to write some sort of Pinch Hitter response around noon, but I put it off today because the Justin Upton trade clearly stole the show. That said, this morning Lucas wrote about small market baseball, and I like things that are often labeled as small market baseball. I like the minor leagues and fringy, platoon players and September call-ups. I like to pay attention to the smaller moves on the edges of the roster. Those moves often have a small market feel, but that doesn’t mean they don’t matter in a big market like New York.
I liked the idea of this morning’s Pinch Hitter post, but to me, there was one tough-to-swallow flaw in Lucas’s argument: It’s hard to suggest the Yankees can learn a thing or two from the Pirates. Some small market teams thrive, and there’s something to be learned from that, but the Pirates have been about as flawed as any team in the game (sorry Lucas).
How can the Yankees learn from the Pirates? Maybe by learning from the Pirates mistakes.
Focus on the rotation
Kip Wells. Zach Duke. Ian Snell. Tom Gorzellany. Ross Ohlendorf. Every time the Pirates seemed to have the beginnings of a rotation, it never worked out. Granted, their lineups haven’t been awe-inspiring, but at least Pittsburgh’s been able to put a few good offensive pieces in place (Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay, Ryan Doumit, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen). It’s hard, though, to sort through those Pittsburgh roster and find a standout pitcher unless you’re really high on Paul Maholm.
Compare that to other smaller market teams that actually did find success in recent years. Obviously the Rays stand out because of their longevity and their division, but they’re not alone in building a foundation of pitching. The Twins might be better known for Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but their 96-win season came with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano (the Twins actually had a below-average offense but the second-lowest team ERA in the American League that season). When the A’s have been at their best, it’s been because of pitching. The Reds have built a good young offense, but much like the Twins in 2006, they won 97 games last season with a below average offense and the second-lowest team ERA in the National League.
Find value in the draft
The Pirates have one massive advantage over the Yankees: Their position in the draft. A lot of drafting is luck — the percentage of players who make the big leagues is stunningly low — but success is crucial for a team trying to spend less and build from within. Bobby Bradley (eighth overall in 1999), John Van Benschoten (eighth overall in 2001, Bryan Bullington (first overall in 2002) and Brad Lincoln (fourth overall in 2006) might be helping the Pirates pitching staff right now if they’d lived up to the franchise’s initial hopes. Other first-round picks — Paul Maholm, Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen came in three consecutive years — have helped the franchise, but a bunch of notable misses have been costly.
Thing is, the importance of the draft is true for any team, it simply stands out a little more with a small-market, low-budget franchise. Also, it’s hard to compare the Pirates’ draft approach to the Yankees’ approach. The Pirates have gone into drafts knowing they might need to fill multiple roles with in-house prospects. The Yankees have gone into drafts looking for potential superstars (hence some of the high-risk selections like Andrew Brackman, Cito Culver and Gerrit Cole), knowing they can spend on the role players. Regardless of whether drafted players make it to the big leagues with the team that drafted them, getting value out of the draft — superstars, role players, trade bait — is important.
Make the big moves count
Big moves carry big responsibility. In 2008, the Pirates traded Jason Bay (when he was still an elite player) and got this package in return: Craig Hansen, Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris. Hansen and LaRoche have been busts, Morris has moved from the minor league rotation to the minor league bullpen and Moss finally had his breakout season (with Oakland). A year later, in 2009, the Pirates traded another outfielder, Nate McLouth (one year removed from the all-star game) and got this package: Gorkys Hernandez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton. Hernandez might never be a viable big leaguer, Locke has struggled in 10 big league starts and Morton has a 5.06 career ERA. Even the somewhat infamous Yankees trade for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte — a clear loss for the Yankees — wasn’t much of a win for the Pirates (unless Jose Tabata turns things around, fifth starter Jeff Karstens will have been their most significant pickup in the deal).
Make no mistake, even with a smaller payroll, the Yankees are still going to make big moves. They’re still going to spent more than most every other team in the sport, and they’re still going to make trades (despite recent evidence to the contrary). The lesson from the Pirates mistakes would be that you’ve got to make the big moves count. Stuff like losing Justin Maxwell and signing Pedro Feliciano are going to hurt, but they’re not going to criple the franchise. The huge decisions – free agent signings like Alex Rodriguez and blockbuster trades like the Michael Pineda deal — can signifcantly change things. The Pirates big moves did nothing to get them out of their hole, and blown moves by the Yankees could put them in a hole, if they’re not there already.
Associated Press photos
I disagree the Yankees are going to make any big moves in the next couple years other than to perhaps re-sign Cano.
2014 rotation:
CC
Hughes
Nova
Phelps
Pineda
Infield:
Tex
Cano/Adams/Joseph
Jeter/Nunez
Arod/Nix/Adams
OF:
GGBG
Ichiro
Heathcott/?
Pen:
Drob
Aardsma
Joba
Mongomery
Cabral
etc.
Can’t they afford that ? Maybe have some money left over ?
Cervelli /Romine at C
Sorry
I guess it’s the flipside of your “make big moves count,” but the Pirates understand the value and the impact of every marginal dollar spent. The Yankees, otoh, have looked at money as something that doesn’t matter if they really want something, but when you aren’t shopping ’til you drop, it matters it matters in every purchases, and all moves, big and small.
Their failure to integrate that common sense idea into their business model, is in large part why they find themselves in the situation they seem to currently be in: a huge payroll, with little flexibility to improve the team.
Perhaps the most inexplicable thing is that even now when they are apparently openly stating they they are about to shift business models, they still went out and took an unreasonable risk with Ichiro by guaranteeing him a salary in 2014.
If that turns out to be an important reason they lose Hughes, it’s really hard to view anything they do as being well thought out.
Interesting post, Chad. Another problem for the Pirates was their inability to take risks and game the amateur draft for many years. They had ample opportunities. But they simply didn’t play it well, especially taking advantage of sign-ability players, until very recently right before the new rules.
Looking back with hindsight, who would’ve guessed Jeff Karstens would be the highlight of that trade.
Rich in NJ January 24th, 2013 at 9:43 pm
If that turns out to be an important reason they lose Hughes, it’s really hard to view anything they do as being well thought out.
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It can’t and won’t be. Even paying Ichiro 6.5 mil in 2014, they have a ton of money coming off the books in 2014. Even if they sign Cano, there is still a big chunk left, so if they choose to not resign Hughes, it won’t be because of Ichiro.
Not that I think signing Ichiro made a lot of sense. I think with Youkilis and Ichiro Hal/Hank/Levine just picked big names they were familiar with.
“It can’t and won’t be. Even paying Ichiro 6.5 mil in 2014, they have a ton of money coming off the books in 2014. Even if they sign Cano, there is still a big chunk left, so if they choose to not resign Hughes, it won’t be because of Ichiro.”
It’s really not about what they have coming off the books; it’s about pre-existing commitments and the ability to fill out a 40 man roster with the remaining available funds (again, assuming that Hal’s prior statement turns out to be true).
The working figure is not $189m, as you probably know but, it’s $170-$175m after benefits, insurance, etc.
if they re-sign Cano they will have about $100m tied up in four players.
If Jeter is willing to exercise his 2014, that will cost them up to $17m.
Ichiro will cost them $6.5m.
Under that scenario, they will have about $50m for the remainder of the 40 man roster.
Let’s say Hughes gets $10-12m. Under that scenario, you could have looked at as if you were paying less than $6m a year but for the silly Ichiro contract.
It may be that Hughes is their only potential reliable starter other than CC for 2014. Why would any reasonable baseball executive put the team in that position?
(btw, jack, I don’t think this was Cashman’s idea.)
So every million dollars, let alone $6.5m, matters a lot.
If the Yankees sign Cano and Jeter triggers his option for 2014 then they’ll have about 55 million left to fill out the rest of the roster (like 19 spots)…..if they sign Hughes that’s down to somewhere between 40 and 45 million…..it’d be very very tight….not impossible….but very tight
And the Yanks probably will have to allow 6 million dollars space in the payroll in case Arod hits his homer milestone in 2014…..so when you account for the bonuses and the homer bonus the Yanks working budget for next winter will probably be around 170 million if they really mean to get under the tax
Under no scenario is there money for a big deal.
The Yankees are one of the few teams that trade with the Pirates and come out on the short end. Consider the Nady/Marte deal. Consider the AJ Burnett deal. The only trade that Cashman did right was the Swisher deal. Every other one’s been a loser for the Yankees.
Both Aardsma and Joba are likely gone in 2014. Don’t see the Yanks keeping either one.
It seems highly unlikely that the Yankees will be able to retain Cano and stay under $189 million while fielding what they can realistically consider to be a competitive team. And they might not be able to do both of the latter two things even if they don’t keep Cano.
So unless they draw the equivalent of an inside straight in prospect development and/or some trade coup, we should find out what their real top priority is in due time.
The Yanks will likely sign Cano to another ridiculous long term contract for PR reasons which will limit them for the next 8 years. It is a vicious cycle
Here’s what the Yankees really need to be good in 2014:
Pineda shows in the 2nd half of 2013 that he can be a 2/3 for 2014. This is asking a lot of “the gods” but it would help tremendously. Otherwise, unless Nova/Phelps/Betances etc really impress, they are going to have to spend some money on pitching, at least for a #2.
Tex at a minimum does not decline any more, and hopefully bounces back at least a little so that he is a reasonably good #4 hitter.
Arod recovers some power in his hips and can be a productive #5 hitter.
They sign Cano.
If the above happens, they have the middle of their lineup in Cano, Tex and Arod, leadoff hitter in Gardner, Ichiro and maybe Jeter. They have CC as the ace and hopefully Pineda as a 2 or 3 with support from Nova/Phelps/others. They can use Robertson for closer. So while they’ve spent a lot of money already, that’s all the major spots in the lineup, rotation and bullpen. The key would be how well they fill in around this core.
“It seems highly unlikely that the Yankees will be able to retain Cano and stay under $189 million while fielding what they can realistically consider to be a competitive team. And they might not be able to do both of the latter two things even if they don’t keep Cano.”
Which is why it’s hard to understand why they aren’t trading him now (actually it is, because they only seem to “plan” for the present), or looking to trade Tex in a AGone type of deal.
Getting draft picks for him makes no sense, if as you say, they want to remain competitive.
Classic Mike F.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....e=youtu.be
I think the Ichiro signing was a business move more so than a baseball move. They retain local revenue from merchandise sold within the stadium. So all those Ichiro jerseys and Steiner Sports collectivize for Ichiro’s hits milestones as well as higher ratings for Yes broadcasts. It’s a money move.
It’s even harder to understand if you don’t know what they’re going to do yet.
Rich
The problem as I see it is you are not looking at the Ichiro signing through the eyes of an accountant.
Yes Ichiro wanted the Yankees but the Yankees wanted the Ichiro Japenese dollars just as much. He will bring in way more than what his reasonable contract costs.
Good night all.
Sorry blake, Jair Jurjjens to the Orioles for 1.5 mil+incentives
“It’s even harder to understand if you don’t know what they’re going to do yet.”
So you think they are going to trade Cano?
Tucker beat me to it. Stupid IPhone!
No, Rich, but I don’t feel like playing an internet fight game at the moment.
Oh, I realize that they signed Ichiro for perceived business reasons, but I would think winning is best thing for business, and given the trajectory of his career over the last two seasons, except for a few weeks, I don’t tihnk he is a good bet to contribute to winning in 2014. Of course, he could be, but the best decisions are based on what is likely to happen.
I can also recall people saying that the Japanese revenue generated Matsui was very significant, but I have read business publications that refute that.
“No, Rich, but I don’t feel like playing an internet fight game at the moment.”
I didn’t realize that discussing an issue with another person was actually viewed as a an internet fight. That’s actually kind of amusing though.
Well they did sign many of the top free agents this offseason– Hal-ism.
And btw, Nick, I actually made my 11:29 post thinking that we actually agreed on something. My bad.
If the Yanks are out of contention half-way thru the 2013 season, it would make sense to trade Cano to a contender in exchange for prospects. That’s what a low- or medium-budget team would do. And, the Yanks are effectively a medium budget team for 2014, because of their commitments to ARod, etc. and their urgent desire to get below $189 million.
However, IMHO trading Cano mid-season is simply unthinkable. It’s just not something the Yankees do. As a result, they’re apt to lose Cano anyhow, and get nothing back but a draft choice.
Okay, “internet fight” was too negatively connotive, but your midnight question didn’t follow logically from anything I said, so I probably interpreted it more combatively than I should have.
To be clear, I don’t think they’re trading Cano. It would shock me, at this point.
I strongly suspect they are going to try really hard to keep Cano. I think the only thing that prevents that is an incredible offer from the Dodgers (which is possible).
Good to hear, Nick. I don’t think they are trading Cano either, but my point was that since remaining competitive, is of (nearly) equal importance as their purported austerity plan, the path I thought you were laying out was that the tough choice ahead of them might argue in favor of actually trading him.
No, I didn’t mean that I think they’re going to trade Cano and I didn’t say that I think they can/will stay seriously competitive in 2014 while a) retaining Cano and b) getting under the cap –while without having a huge number of things go unusually well.
But, based on both their rhetoric and their actions, it still seems like they’re hanging onto all tnree goals. It would seem like something will have to give. So my only real point is that, barring unforeseen luck/events, we’re probably going to find out which goal is the most important.
Losing Cano for nothing but a draft pick could definitely be the result if they lean in one of those directions.
The Yanks should be competitive this year. They also may suffer a key injury or two on this aging roster that knocks them out of contention.
If the wheels fall off the aging caravan this year, it may make their decision for 2014 all the more easier. They can sell the fan base on the need to get young. Let Cano walk, Bye bye Mariano and Kuroda, etc.
“If the wheels fall off the aging caravan this year, it may make their decision for 2014 all the more easier.”
I have thought about this. It’s not out of the question that losing this year could be in the team’s (fans’) longer term best interests. Although, it’s possible that instead of going young, it could result in deep sixing the austerity plan.
Poor Carl
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/.....1;mlb.html
Let win last place for 5 years and learn from the Pirates! Jeter 2.0 and Core 5 & 9, we will see you in 2020 ! Core 6 & 7 was traded, had to be done, Yanks are farmer too.
action going on all around them (NYY) but they are in a bunker…this theam will not make the playoffs in 13 or 14
jacksquat January 25th, 2013 at 12:24 am
I strongly suspect they are going to try really hard to keep Cano. I think the only thing that prevents that is an incredible offer from the Dodgers (which is possible).
————————————————-
Cano will go where the $$$ is and that will take to So. Cal, no doubt in my mind
only way he stays is if they sign him in season…. before he hits the market and sees what the Dodgers will offer him
Jerkface says:
January 25, 2013 at 12:00 am
Sorry blake, Jair Jurjjens to the Orioles for 1.5 mil+incentives
Yea….. If he’s healthy that’s a bargain
@JonHeymanCBS: yorvit torrealba agrees to sign with the #rockies
joeman January 25th, 2013 at 6:29 am
only way he stays is if they sign him in season…. before he hits the market and sees what the Dodgers will offer him
———
Why would a rational person do that?
They should have been trying to extend cano last year…..he’s too close to free agency now….unlikely he would do it unless the Yanks just blew him away
Not saying the Padres were lying about Headley being unavailable…..but I can’t imagine he wouldn’t be for the right offer.
His value will never be higher….he is nearing free agency….he will cost a lot to re-sign….and the Padres have a 3B that’s big league ready in Gyrko ready to step right in.
It’s a
Not saying the Padres were lying about Headley being unavailable…..but I can’t imagine he wouldn’t be for the right offer.
His value will never be higher….he is nearing free agency….he will cost a lot to re-sign….and the Padres have a 3B that’s big league ready in Gyrko ready to step right in.
It’s a perfect situation for a non contender to turn a player into more building blocks…..of course it’s also a perfect storm for an overpay too for the acquiring team
His value will never be higher….he is nearing free agency….he will cost a lot to re-sign….and the Padres have a 3B that’s big league ready in Gyrko ready to step right in
==============================
Think they’re looking at Gyorko at 2B this year, though 3B seems more his home. No way they’re trading Headley before the season starts, but if they’re dead and buried in July, I could see it happening. He’ll still have great value then because he’s under control thru the 2014 season.
“Think they’re looking at Gyorko at 2B this year, though 3B seems more his home. No way they’re trading Headley before the season starts, but if they’re dead and buried in July, I could see it happening.”
If he regresses back closer to the guy that hit 4 homers in 2011 though then his value could take a big hit…..for a team that isn’t gonna contend in 2013 I think it’s a bit risky to hold onto him if they have a good offer and they don’t plan on signing him…..if he plays well then sure….but the power he showed in 2012 really isn’t in his history
With or without the power Headley is a great fit for the Yanks because he switch hits….plays good defense and 3B….and he gets on base….even if the power he showed in Petco last year wasn’t real….he still is probably a 20 homer bat in YS
If I’m the Braves I’m taking Teheran and trying to get either Olt or Headley with him….go for it
Yes, Headley would be a great fit. He will be ignored like all the rest.
Morning.
Has the season started yet ?
Wake me up when it does.
Mac,
Lol. Yes most likely
boy, the excitement level i have waiting to see if the yankees get under 189 in 2014 is building up.
if they can just not sign cano and hughes i just know they can make it.
what you say? you are more interested in a world series?
that’s so late 1990′s.
a real yankee fan would want them to have lots of cash left over at the end of the year.
i remember back in 1961. i was so excited as a kid to know the yankees finished first in owner profit at the end of the year. they really stuck it to old tom yawkey with the red sox.
i remember back in 6th grade that kids who were red sox fans would fake being sick so they didn’t have to face us giddy yankee fans celebrating the yankees kicking the red sox’s bottom line.
man, those were the good old days.
Mac-
I’m on your bandwagon right now.
I think the Yankes are not players. They have simply, as Randy put it, steped away from the table.
Wish it was different but I doubt it is.
They need to stock up on the Geritol and ace bandages.
I will be so happy if we get under the luxury tax….they should add a 28rh banner to celebrate
If he regresses back closer to the guy that hit 4 homers in 2011 though then his value could take a big hit
=============================
Headley had a 120 OPS+ in 2011. If he regresses to that, he still has significant value. He missed 50 games that year.
I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between 2011 and 2012. Guys been an .850 OPS guy out of Petco over his career. He’s a legit bat and unlike Upton, his team loves him and won’t sell him short.
In past years, I have never been pessimistic about the team as I felt in the past they would at least try to win. Now, it is clear finances come before winning. Hal, whose main accomplishment has been being born to George, may not be very smart or adept at running a big business.
All winter I have kept hoping against hope my forecasts were wrong as I check sources for possible efforts to improve. Nope.
Marchand has a good article up about the loss of home runs. I’m glad he does say no one ever sought fewer home runs.
“Headley had a 120 OPS+ in 2011. If he regresses to that, he still has significant value. He missed 50 games that year.”
Yea he will still have a lot of value….just probably not as much as now given that he will be half a year closer to free agency as well…..I agree that he’s probably somewhere between what he’s been and last year….which is still a very good player…….as I said before I do think you’d have to over pay to he him now though…..however he’s a better fit for the yanks actual needs than even Upton
On former D-back and current Brave Justin Upton: “Did I ever have a conversation with Arizona about him? Yeah, but they weren’t focusing on us.”
@BryanHoch: Cashman: “We do have a team. A lot of people think we don’t.” http://t.co/0WMs06TT
Id like to know how hard they tried…
to me this simply makes the argument that you should be willing to trade prospects for young established players. Look at how the Pirates lost out in trades – few minor leaguers, even those that look promising, are going to turn into decent MLB players. We all love to think about how great a player Slade is going to be, but the safest bet is that he will never be an above average player
Blake-
Sounds like Cashman was very passive about JU especially since Towers was indebted to him.
“We all love to think about how great a player Slade is going to be, but the safest bet is that he will never be an above average player”
Yes….most players never become what they could be….just the way it is
“We have a team”.
Yeah Brian we knew that. So do all the other Teams.
Is it a good one though ?
MTU,
It may have been that Cash tried and Towers just flatly said we are looking for a big league player to play 3B and you don’t have it…..of course that may could have been solved by involving another team…..I would have liked to know how hard Cash tried
Gotto know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away.
Not sure the Yankees do anymore.
We’ve now moved from we intend to field a championship calibre team to we will field a competitive team to we will field a team.
Brian, we get that MLB has permitted you to field a team. How about trying to field a decent one? Spring training will soon be tomorrow, and the team is no better than two months ago.
Blake-
I don’t think it was all that hard unfortunately.
Sounds like he just checked in.
I don’t buy the rest of what you said for several reasons :
1) Towers owes Cashman bigtime
2) Our Majors and Minors are both laden with talent
3) It’s hard to believe that a GM would be fixated on 1 position only
New one —–>
Ya good Babi !
Not sure about the city. At what time?