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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Who’s next to come off the Yankees roster?

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Oct 05, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Mike Zagurski is off the roster, but he won’t be the last one removed. Who else is on his way off the Yankees 40-man, one way or another?

Mariano RiveraHeading for retirement
Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte

These are the easy ones. Rivera and Pettitte will technically become free agents at the same time as many of their teammates. What sets them apart is that they’re not interested in coming back.

Expiring contracts
Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Lyle Overbay, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Hafner, Mark Reynolds, Brendan Ryan, Hiroki Kuroda, Phil Hughes, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain

The Yankees clearly want Cano and Kuroda back, and there seems to be a good chance they’ll at least give Granderson a qualifying offer (less certain whether he’ll actually take it). Ultimately, though, there’s a chance none of these 11 will be back next year. They’ll all fall off the roster after the World Series, opening a bunch of 40-man spots while also opening a ton of roster holes that have to be filled.

Non-tender candidates
Jayson Nix, Chris Stewart, Francisco Cervelli, David Huff

This group is arbitration eligible with at least some chance of being non-tendered. Obviously some are more likely than others, but I’d guess that this group of four has a much higher non-tender potential than other arb-eligible guys like Ivan Nova, Shawn Kelley, Dave Robertson and Brett Gardner. Those four aren’t going anywhere. The four listed above at least might be.

DFA candidates
Matt Daley, Brett Marshall, Corban Joseph

Similar to Zagurski, these guys cost next to nothing for next season, but they could be the first to go if the Yankees have to open roster spots either for new players or to protect prospects from the Rule 5. Daley actually pitched well in both Triple-A and the big leagues, but he could be  a victim of the numbers game. Same sort of thing could happen to Marshall (who had a rough Triple-A season) and Joseph (shaky Triple-A numbers for season-ending surgery). Should be no rush to push these guys off the roster, but I’d guess these three rank ahead of guys like David Adams, Zoilo Almonte and Cesar Cabral in terms of if-necessary DFA possibilities.

* It’s worth noting that a few players mentioned here — Cervelli, Nix, Youkilis, Joseph — are currently on the 60-day disabled list and don’t count against the 40-man limit. Four other guys — Vidal Nuno, CC Sabathia, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira — are also on the 60-day and will technically be added to the 40-man limit as these things sort themselves out.

Associated Press photo

 
 

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30 Responses to “Who’s next to come off the Yankees roster?”

  1. randy l. October 5th, 2013 at 3:43 pm

    yankspats-

    montero/ pineda was the perfect storm of events that made it bigger than just one trade.

    it represented a lot of things. it was symbolic of what was going to be coming.

    i had little doubt the yankees would be going downhill from that point on.

    it wasn’t the trading of offensive WAR for pitching WAR .

    it was the thinking behind the move that made me know a yankee decline was coming.

    could i prove it back then? nope, but putting everything i knew together said to me big problems ahead.

    maybe it was just a lucky guess because i thought it meant the yankees were going to suck and boy do they ever.

    now had pineda became an ace with his newly developed plus change up to go with his lost velocity, my intuition would have been wrong.

    the fact is i felt i KNEW a yankee winter was coming. a lot of other people felt the same way. and on the other side, people had exactly the opposite intuitions of what was going happen. now maybe they just guessed wrong about the yankees. or maybe they have a poorly developed intuition.

    i don’t think many of the pro pineda people ever thought the yankees were going to go downhill so fast. i mean to them, with pineda , the yankees had good cheap young pitching and pitching as after all the keys to the kingdom.

    pineda/montero is water over the dam now, but surely no one is thinking pineda is going to come and save this yankee team next year. if they do and are right, then i guess we’ll have an interesting conversation.

  2. randy l. October 5th, 2013 at 3:52 pm

    “DFA candidates
    Matt Daley, Brett Marshall, Corban Joseph”

    what needs to be DFA is the 189 mandate and the thinking behind it.

    if the yankees keep thinking like they have been it doesn’t matter what moves they make because they are playing out a failed philosophy .

    the yankees need to ask themselves if they want to be like mccourt’s hit the brakes dodgers or the new powerful step on the gas dodgers ( who are really retro dodgers).

    of course Frank McCourt made a fortune selling the team to these new “step on the gas” dodger owners. maybe hal sees a role model in McCourt. let’s hope so :)

  3. mick October 5th, 2013 at 4:09 pm

    the fact is i felt i KNEW a yankee winter was coming. a lot of other people felt the same way. and on the other side, people had exactly the opposite intuitions of what was going happen. now maybe they just guessed wrong about the yankees. or maybe they have a poorly developed intuition.
    ===================
    It’s all about being right with you isn’t it…
    Funny how you are wrong though.
    Nuclear winter has not encompassed the Yankees yet. Even though you want it to be so you can be right.
    What a massive ego. Or is it just a coverup.

  4. mick October 5th, 2013 at 4:12 pm

    The 189 was designed with Cano in mind.
    I doubt they stick to it, most likely they are close, but it is designed as a bargaining tool, at least for now.
    Don’t you think they have overspent enough.
    Let’s see how far your vaunted Dodgers go with their free spending ways.
    Maybe as far as the 80′s Yanks?

  5. tomingeorgia October 5th, 2013 at 4:16 pm

    Keep Reynolds for versatility and an occasional long ball.

  6. randy l. October 5th, 2013 at 4:23 pm

    mick-

    you have a choice.

    keep up on the blog and add to it or attack personalities.

    the fact is the yankees have failed in their attempt to make the playoffs with their plan firmly in control.

    without the EXtra injuries above and beyond what any team goes through, they still wouldn’t have made it.

    the WAR that was lost was not enough for them to make the playoffs.

    it was a fail.

    now the thing is how to move on. as i said the HAL PLAN needs to be DFA

  7. randy l. October 5th, 2013 at 4:29 pm

    the dodgers bear watching because they are the new yankees.

    yeah, they could get some really bad contracts later on, but they paid a crazy amount for that team. they made the decision to make money by spending money.

    that was the yankee way.

  8. Doreen October 5th, 2013 at 4:29 pm

    Randy I disagree. They would have made it without the injuries. Perhaps barely, but they would have made it.

    They should not have even been as close as they were WITH the injuries.

    However, I do think that in spite of what was being said aloud, they were AIMING for the wild card, which gave them no cushion. Ive already said ad nauseam how I think they took a lot of gambles and pretty much lost every single one. That’s really not what we’ve come to expect.

  9. BoJo October 5th, 2013 at 4:31 pm

    I’ll sign up right now for a 189 budget and a losing season if it means the Yankees can spend more freely beginning in 2014 with no large tax/penalty. Anyone who thinks differently really doesn’t understand the consequences financially, and how it could hinder the team long-term. I want the Yankees to be in a position to sign the Bryce Harpers and Mike Trouts of the game if and when they become available….

  10. DaSaint007 October 5th, 2013 at 4:31 pm

    Lots to do this winter.

    Regarding ARod, he’s entitled to all his legal rights and is clearly exercising them. Anyone who believes that his defense is spurious doesn’t realize the capability and capacity of the legal team he’s built. I have personal knowledge and experience with one of the firms, Reed Smith, and all I can say is that just them alone is impressive. This firm has been around since 1877 I believe, and has 1800 attorneys in 25 or 35 offices worldwide. They are not a joke. And ARod’s resources are orders of magnitudes of my firms resources, so clearly they are all in.

    MLB is in for a fight, and for their sake and frankly the reputation of the game, or what’s left of it, they better never let this get to a courtroom.

  11. luis October 5th, 2013 at 4:33 pm

    Good afternoon guys,

    Interesting take Randy… And I would say spot on… As for the vaunted Dodgers, they have a young core in place with Puig, Kershaw, Kemp surrounded by a group of great FA lead by Hanley and Gonzales… That’s a fairly deep club which is very well set up for the next 5 years or so…Time enough to develop more players and be on top at the same time.

    The problem the Yankees have is that they are no longer willing to spend and that problem is compounded by their inability to develop players internally… Add to that their philosophical shift from being an offensive juggernaut with an incredible advantage in their central line ( C, CF mostly ) complimented with good pitching, to a pitching and defense approach with enough offense to get by (it won’t work )

    About the Montero trade… Regardless, the thought process involved was faulty…And this makes it a bad move no matter what… You never make an already weak part of your organization weaker to strengthen an already strong part… It was obvious ( at least to me ), that the offense needed more help than the pitching side… This past two seasons proved it beyond any reasonable doubt…

    The trade didn’t send this team on a downward spiral… But it was the last of a series of moves that started in 2010. Compounded by very poor talent evaluation and their inability to adapt to a new environment.

    IMO… We need to start a rebuilding process…And I know I have said this a zillion times

  12. YanksPats October 5th, 2013 at 4:36 pm

    The pitching didn’t look too strong.

    I agree that we likely would have qualified for the postseason if not for the few of the unforeseen injuries and poor performances.

    However, that does not excuse management for building a horrific roster.

  13. Tar October 5th, 2013 at 4:40 pm

    This must be the kinder and gentler Randy.

    I think I like the spit in your eye version better.

    :D AHHH j/k

    Doreen

    Sorry but I’m with Randy on not making it in, injuries or not.

    From the moment they named Stewart and Cervelli as the starting catchers I thought they were doomed.

    Add a couple of more curious moves in, and it would have taken a perfect storm of things going right, for them to make it. Of course just IMO.

  14. jmills October 5th, 2013 at 4:40 pm

    Hi all, hope your Saturday is pleasant as everybody needs a reprieve. Personally, I like juggernauts ( I’m not being facetious ), so I do hope your Yanks remain strong so I have something to live up to! :)

  15. austinmac October 5th, 2013 at 4:48 pm

    I agree with Randy the team, even without unpredictable injuries, would not have made the playoffs. If we were pretending AROD and Jeter, would have miraculously returned to the form before broken ankles and multiple hip surgeries, perhaps so. That was and is utterly foreseeable to anyone who sees with a realistic eye.

  16. jmills October 5th, 2013 at 5:00 pm

    Luis, if you’re listening, some calmness to Venezuela I do send. jmv has been in contact ( he’s a big F1 guy and we’re going to exchange thoughts on Howard’s Rush ), so I take it things are manageable?

  17. jmills October 5th, 2013 at 5:02 pm

    Austin, hi.

  18. MTU October 5th, 2013 at 5:04 pm

    Mills-

    jmv and Luis can find refuge here in Utah anytime they want.

    :)

  19. randy l. October 5th, 2013 at 5:04 pm

    “Randy I disagree. They would have made it without the injuries.”

    doreen-

    if you had up the WAR lost to injuries above and beyond what an average team lose each year, i think you’d be surprised how many games of WAR were actually lost.using fan graphs it says jeter had a WAR of 3.0 in 2012.

    jeter is a clear unusual loss. who else? teixeira? WAR2.7 lost

    that’s 5.7 games so far

    granderson? 2.13 WAR 2012-1.4 WAR 2013 = .73 WAR lost

    now we’re up to 6.43 games.

    third base with alex? who counted on that?

    but lets say we did .

    alex WAR lost 1.4

    so now it’s 7.83 games lost.

    let’s count cervelli. he contributed 0 WAR in 2012 so no loss there.

    now here’s the kicker. how many games of WAR does the average team lose each year.
    i’d guess 3-5 games would be expected.

    let’s say three.

    that means 7.83 WAR yankees lost in 2013- 3WAR any team is expected to lose and that’s 4.83 games more than you’d expect.

    add 4.83 war to 85 wins ( 2013 record) and you get 89.83 wins.

    that does not make the playoffs.

    and it gets really bad if you add WAR lost to what their expected WL was . it was 78 games.

    78

    think about that.

    add 4.83 games to 78 and you get 82.83 games.

    if the yankees go into their planning thinking they were just unlucky because of injuries, they will be really wrong and will likely underestimate the problem of rebuilding that they have.

    it’s very dangerous thinking to say ” it was injuries”.

  20. MTU October 5th, 2013 at 5:05 pm

    Mac-

    Are you done Pillaging Europe ?

  21. jmills October 5th, 2013 at 5:06 pm

    MTU, I have floors in my house I never use, so a place here, they always do have.

  22. luis October 5th, 2013 at 5:07 pm

    Hello Jmills,

    We are witnessing the calm before the storm down here… Things are getting worse by the day…Hopefully reasonable minds will prevail, but I don’t think so… This country is a time bomb

    I used to be a big F1 fan… But lost most of the interest after Schumacher became the main atraction and Mclaren faded away… I was a big Alain Prost and Nikki Lauda fan… Not much of Senna, I always thought him to be too arrogant for my liking.

    About Rush….. I love Rush!!!

  23. Jerkface October 5th, 2013 at 5:07 pm

    I’ll sign up right now for a 189 budget and a losing season if it means the Yankees can spend more freely beginning in 2014 with no large tax/penalty. Anyone who thinks differently really doesn’t understand the consequences financially, and how it could hinder the team long-term. I want the Yankees to be in a position to sign the Bryce Harpers and Mike Trouts of the game if and when they become available….

    I think you do not understand the consequences actually, if you’re cheering for the 189. First of all, Harper and Trout will not be free agents for 4+ seasons, so any 1 year reset is not going to position them to sign either if they go back over the cap. Secondly, you’re talking about, at most, 20-30 million per year in tax. If their AAV payroll+benefits is 220 million the tax is 15 million. If you think 15 million is going to hinder the Yankees long term, then you don’t understand the Yankees.

    They make way too much money between YES, Legends Hospitality, and the Yankees themselves.

  24. luis October 5th, 2013 at 5:11 pm

    Thanks MTU and Jmills… I really appreciate it ;)

    Randy,

    Excellent post describing how we never had a chance at the PS… We already beat our predetermined expectations

  25. tomingeorgia October 5th, 2013 at 5:11 pm

    How many nations are represented here? USA, Canada, Venezuela, France, Taiwan, New England I know about. Any others?

  26. MTU October 5th, 2013 at 5:13 pm

    Luis-

    If I can ever help you just let me know.

    You know I mean what I say.

    Canada is way too cold.

    ;)

  27. MTU October 5th, 2013 at 5:14 pm

    New post —->

  28. randy l. October 5th, 2013 at 5:14 pm

    “This must be the kinder and gentler Randy.”

    tar-

    i think the only way we can get back to the good baseball discussions that we used to have on the blog is to raise the level from trash talking each other to actually debating ideas.

    though some occasional comical trash talking isn’t necessarily a bad thing :)

  29. jmills October 5th, 2013 at 5:18 pm

    Luis, from what I’ve met in the way of hearts that reside in in the two of you, your people deserve infinitely better. Schumacker tried to knock out Gilles’ son in the ’97 championship, but Jacques persevered.

    Forza Gilles Villeneuve!!! ( Lauda said,” Gilles had the greatest talent of all of us “, Jodi said, ” Gilles was the fastest driver of all time “, and Lafitte said, ” you know miracles are impossible, but Gilles made you wonder ” )

  30. BoJo October 5th, 2013 at 5:27 pm

    JF–I was using Harper and Trout as examples of players that they may wish to bid on. Cashman recently came out and explained the finances for an illustrative player, stating that a $200M contract for a big name would hive IIRC a $60M penalty, unless they reset.

    And while the Yankees are rich, one doesn’t stay that way by throwing away money. You never know long-term what will happen with assets like YES. If the team continues to falter because the competitive landscape makes it more difficult to build a dynasty, then they may make less in revenue.


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