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Is the Yankees top pick worth protecting this winter?

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Nov 04, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, Joe Girardi

Qualifying offers are a relatively new part of the baseball offseason, and they impact teams in three ways.

1. The immediate impact of extending offers to free agents.
2. The ability to gain draft picks if those free agents ultimately sign elsewhere.
3. The loss of a first-round pick if a team signs a player who received a qualifying offer elsewhere.

This afternoon, the Yankees made their decisions about Nos. 1 and 2. They made one-year, $14.1 million offers to Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson and Hiroki Kuroda. If any of those three accepts, he’ll be back with the Yankees next season. If not, the Yankees will get a draft pick if/when those players sign elsewhere.

That part is done from the Yankees side. It’s up the players now.

What’s to-be determined is how No. 3 will affect the Yankees going forward. It looks like 10 other players received qualifying offers — Carlos Beltran, Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian McCann, Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, Ervin Santana — and certainly some of them seem to be strong fits for the Yankees next season.

But how badly do the Yankees want to keep their first-round pick?

Right now, the Yankees have the 18th pick in next year’s draft. It’s their highest choice since 2005, and with a renewed emphasis on player development, the Yankees would obviously like to keep that pick to add another high-potential prospect.

That said, it’s worth noting that the last time the Yankees picked this high, it was a terrific draft class and the Yankees chose a high schooler named C.J. Henry, who was an overwhelming flop. And the Yankees are hardly the only team to swing-and-miss with that sort of pick. Go scrolling through drafts from the past decade and you’ll find that picks in the late teens are hit-and-miss, and they’re rarely standouts.

Yankees-Mariners-Base_Bord2-695x1024As a sample — just to get some idea of what’s happened recently in this area of the draft — here’s the complete list of picks 16-19 from 2001 through 2009.

2001: Kris Honel, Dan Denham, Aaron Heilman, Mike Fontenot
2002: Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Royce Ring, James Loney
2003: Jeff Allison, David Murphy, Brad Snyder, Conor Jackson
2004: David Purcey, Scott Elbert, Josh Fields, Chris Lambert
2005: Chris Volstad, C.J. Henry, Cesar Carrillo, John Mayberry
2006: Jeremy Jeffress, Matt Antonelli, Kyle Drabek, Brett Sinkbeil
2007: Kevin Ahrens, Blake Beavan, Pete Kozma, Joe Savery
2008: Brett Lawrie, David Cooper, Ike Davis, Andrew Cashner
2009: Bobby Borchering, A.J. Pollock, Chad James, Shelby Miller

Some good names in there — Swisher, Hamels, Lawrie, Miller — but it’s mostly bit players and unknowns. It only emphasizes the unpredictability of a draft pick, even a high one. Beyond the top five or so, draft picks have a strong tendency to bust in a big way. If signing a player like Carlos Beltran costs the Yankees the opportunity to draft a guy like Cole Hamels, that would be a real regret. But it seems more likely it would keep them from drafting a guy like Brad Snyder, and that’s obviously a different story.

It’s also worth noting that, with three qualifying offers extended, the Yankees have a chance to add three draft picks in the 30s. Obviously not as good as an 18th pick, but it does at least somewhat offset the loss of that first-rounder.

Basically, keeping the 18th pick — or higher as other teams lose their first-rounders — would be great for the Yankees. Drafting higher is better, and this is the Yankees best draft opportunity in a long time. But it might not be a deal breaker when it comes to signing one of the top free agents on the market. The trade off might be well worth it.

Associated Press photos

 
 

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63 Responses to “Is the Yankees top pick worth protecting this winter?”

  1. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 5:54 pm

    Yes.

    :)

  2. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 5:55 pm

    and this is supposed to be an above average draft.

    let’s get a few more early round picks.

    ;)

  3. blake November 4th, 2013 at 5:57 pm

    Absolutely

  4. pkyankfan69 November 4th, 2013 at 6:01 pm

    Go big or go home… Give us Cano + Kuroda + Tanaka + McCann + Choo + Beltran + Brian Wilson/Balfour … OR let’s keep the pick

  5. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:03 pm

    Assume we re-sign Hiroki, and we acquire Tanaka.

    Could we then afford to trade Nova ? Or at least Phelps ?

    I don’t particularly want to trade Nova but I have to admit he is one our best trade chips.

    I sure wish my crystal ball would tell me about Pineda’s future.

    ;)

  6. blake November 4th, 2013 at 6:04 pm

    As I’ve been saying the pick and it’s value largely depend on what kind of team they are rolling out there next year.

    If they can and will put a legit title contender out there and bust the budget then ok the pick isn’t as critical to keep……but if not and if they mean to get younger and more efficient long term then that starts with keeping your first rounders…..especially if the team isn’t gonna be any good

  7. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:05 pm

    PK-

    I have to hand it to you.

    You do dream big.

    I like that.

    :)

  8. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:06 pm

    Blake-

    Pick a lane, right ?

    ;)

  9. pkyankfan69 November 4th, 2013 at 6:06 pm

    That was my tempered plan, no trade for Tulo. ;)

  10. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:09 pm

    I’d prefer Castro to Tulo.

    He’s younger. With huge upside.

    Castro is just a kid.

  11. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:11 pm

    I’d be interested in Freese too.

    The Cards might non-tender him.

    I think he is far from a lost cause.

    ;)

  12. pkyankfan69 November 4th, 2013 at 6:13 pm

    Any fantasy football people in here?

    I really need a W this week… I need 38.9 points tonight in a 1/2 PPR to take the win (he’s done for the week)

    I have Brandon Marshall + Matt Forte definitely playing tonight.

    I have the choice of also playing Alshon Jefferey OR Jarrett Boykin.

    Jeffery is the better talent but Cutler is out tonight and I’m already starting 2 Bears.

    Boykin is the lesser player but Rodgers is his QB… James Jones might play but very likely will not be 100%.

    38.9 points is not a ton, Marshall and Forte can get that themselves so I’m leaning going Boykin just to not put all my eggs in one basket.

    Any thoughts? I’m torn.

  13. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:13 pm

    Freese is a great buy low candidate.

  14. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:17 pm

    Freese only made a little over 3 mil last year.

  15. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:23 pm

    The Yankees must be pretty optimistic about Jeter being able to play an important role on next year’s Team.

    Otherwise, why pay him 12 mil ?

    That’s a significant amount of production.

  16. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:24 pm

    OK.

    If no one wants to talk I’m gonna go get me some dinner.

    :)

  17. blake November 4th, 2013 at 6:39 pm

    MTU says:
    November 4, 2013 at 6:09 pm
    I’d prefer Castro to Tulo.

    He’s younger. With huge upside.

    Castro is just a kid.

    I like Castro but Tulo is WAY better right now…..like way better. He’s a much better defender and he’s a better hitter by a significant margin as well so in a vacuum Id much rather have Tulo…….but Castro is much more realistic to get most likely and Id be very fine with them getting him

  18. BIG AL November 4th, 2013 at 6:42 pm

    MTU -

    I think I’ll tune out until mid January, that way I’ll not have to endure all the bad moves the team is likely to make, and the lost opportunities missed.

    As for Cano, I make him my best offer, with the understanding he has until 12/1 to accept or decline. My best offer would be $160M for 6 years, back loaded.
    If that’s not enough, good bye and good luck Robbie.

  19. Bret The Hitman November 4th, 2013 at 6:44 pm

    MTU,

    What do you recommend for a starter camera. I have such beautiful scenery down here and all I have is a cell phone camera. I watched the sunset here, panoramic views of the Smokeys and I wanted to be able to share it with friends and family back home on Facebook. One of the photographers there and there were many, recommended Nikkon or Canon. He said I’ll be spending about $700-$800. Is there any way around that?

  20. BIG AL November 4th, 2013 at 6:48 pm

    Bret -

    A very good starter camera, that’s really much more than that, is the Canon SX50 HC. I just got one a few weeks ago, and it’s a fantastic camera.

    You should be able to find one for $350.00 to $370.00, and it has a zoom of 24mm to 1200mm.

  21. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:48 pm

    Blake-

    Of course Tulo is a stud right now. No question.

    But he is already around 30 or so.

    Castro just turned 25.

    I want the guy who potentially can offer me more for longer.

    Al-

    I do not think the Yankees will engage in a bidding war for Cano.

    So they’ll do the best they can and if can’t live with that they’ll be forced to move on.

    I agree with setting a date.

    Too much business out there to let things drag on.

    Bad enough we have to wait to see how much we’re gonna save on A-Rod.

    ;)

  22. BIG AL November 4th, 2013 at 6:52 pm

    Bret -

    Just one site that you can look to that sells get camera gear, and an outstanding company to do business with.

    http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/.....amera.html

  23. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:53 pm

    Brett-

    Sounds like AL has given you a very good suggestion.

    In that price range the Panasonic FZ series are great cameras if you want a point and shoot.

    I’d have to know a lot more about what your Photo plans are before I could offer you more advice.

    For example, do plan to print photos or just share them digitally via e-mail ?

    If you plan on printing any, how large ?

    and your price range ?

    And do want it to fit in your pocket or not ?

    Stuff like this.

  24. blake November 4th, 2013 at 6:55 pm

    MTU,
    Castro might be great though…. Tulo already is.
    Id be tickled with either

  25. BIG AL November 4th, 2013 at 6:55 pm

    MTU -

    I think MLB is hurting the Yankees by dragging this A-Rod matter on much too long, and the decision could come too late for the team to make the moves necessary to protect themselves.

  26. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:57 pm

    There is a bit of a revolution going on in the camera world these days.

    All kinds of photography types are moving away from heavy and cumbersome DSLR’s and going to lighter compact so-called “mirrorless” cameras.

    The new mirrorless cameras are lighter, cheaper, versatile, and offer terrific image quality.

    ;)

  27. BIG AL November 4th, 2013 at 6:57 pm

    MTU -

    Mike, with all things considered, I’d prefer Castro.

  28. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 6:59 pm

    Al-

    I guess all I can say is that I hope the Yankees can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time.

    Blake-

    Tulo is not realistic. Castro might be.

    ;)

  29. Pat M. November 4th, 2013 at 7:00 pm

    that 18th pick would look so much better and have so much more importance if it was part of a rebuilding plan already in effect. It would have been a real nice pick if it was a player who would be the third wave of young talent to hit the Bronx for three consecutive years. Yanks are going to have to have a few bumpy seasons before they’re relevant again. This should have been year 2 of this process with Cespedes being the leader of this renewal. Pick a lane or run into Tin Cup’s iceberg ???/

  30. ronDL white November 4th, 2013 at 7:02 pm

    Hi Bret. How have you been? This board has missed your intelligence.

  31. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:02 pm

    The first things the Yankees need to decide is who they want to be and where they want to go ?

    As Blake is so fond of saying, they need to “pick a lane”.

    ;)

  32. Bret The Hitman November 4th, 2013 at 7:04 pm

    MTU,

    I want to be able to take pictures in the day without light drowning out color and contrast. I want to be able to share pictures via facebook so digital is fine. I don’t plan on printing or selling prints or anything fancy. This guy said professional photographers can spend as much as 75K on equipment. I just want a camera that does me justice as a novice photographer. I have an eye for a good shot and I know this can’t be taught but it’s hard to do things with cell phone cameras and I feel a ton of this scenery is passing by for people back home.

  33. BIG AL November 4th, 2013 at 7:04 pm

    Pick a lane or run into Tin Cup’s iceberg ???/

    *******************************************
    Didn’t you get an invitation to Cashman’s North Pole Winter cruise? Cash has promised this cruise will allow all those attending a first hand view of the Titanic, a ship built like the Yankees, a cannot fail system, lol.

  34. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:07 pm

    The yanks like to pick the middle of the road

  35. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:09 pm

    Bret,
    You ever spent any time on the parkway?

  36. Bret The Hitman November 4th, 2013 at 7:12 pm

    Not yet, Blake. Never been to Great Smokey Park either.

  37. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:13 pm

    OK brett.

    That clarifies things considerably.

    Unfortunately, in some ways you posed a paradox.

    You want to be able to take great photos “in the day w/o drowning out color and contrast”.

    That can be more challenging than it sounds.

    Almost any decent point and shoot can yield very respectable photos in broad daylight.

    The problem comes in trying not to wash out the color and contrast.

    To prevent that you must do several things.

    One is to shoot when the light is softer.

    A second option is to use filters to remove glare and slow down the light.

    A feature that is essential if you are shooting in bright light is either an optical or electronic view finder.

    Shooting in bright light using just an Lcd screen sucks.

    You really cannot compose your image properly.

    I can’t emphasize that enough.

    Many P/S cameras do not allow the attachment of filters.

    Hope that helps a little.

  38. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:13 pm

    Bret ,
    You need to….like I said the other day next time you have a hot date and want to spend the day somewhere go towards Boone and try the Gamekeeper…..you could hit Linville Falls or Grandfather Mtn on the way. Leaves are probably gone up there now though

  39. Pat M. November 4th, 2013 at 7:21 pm

    blake. I fear that the lane has been chosen for them

  40. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:23 pm

    Pat M. says:
    November 4, 2013 at 7:21 pm
    blake. I fear that the lane has been chosen for them

    Me too…..and if that’s the case then the decision making becomes crucial. It’s hard to see how they are gonna build a true title contending team under 189 so that means keeping the pick and essentially starting a rebuild …..not tying up money etc….

  41. Bret The Hitman November 4th, 2013 at 7:24 pm

    I think I was at Grandfather mtn with a girl from Wilkesboro a few years back – gorgeous up there. I’ve never been to the Gamekeeper. I’m still wanting to try Lobster Trap. And hopefully my date is the same one I’ve been dating for all these places. I do like her. She’s from Raleigh so she’s not really country but she’s country enough.

  42. Bret The Hitman November 4th, 2013 at 7:24 pm

    MTU,

    So buy a point and shoot digital camera that has a filter?

  43. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:25 pm

    One last thing Bret.

    Be sure that any p/s you buy has “image stabilization” built in.

    Most do.

    ;)

  44. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:25 pm

    The Gamekeeper is one of my favorite restaurants anywhere…..it’s different but it’s really cool.

  45. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:27 pm

    We have almost everything covered here….nutrition, photography, cooking, lawyering…..maybe Hal should make us want to talk about the Yankees more ….otherwise we will just entertain ourselves

  46. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:28 pm

    No bret.

    Just see if the P/S you want to purchase accepts filters.

    Some do and some don’t.

    The pocket sized ones certainly don’t and most lack a viewfinder.

    The ones like Al and I suggested generally do accept filters and have a VF.

  47. ron November 4th, 2013 at 7:28 pm

    The rs turned it around in one year by signing a bunch of crappy free agents.
    Yes they did have ells,buchholz,lester.ortiz,pedroia,but they had them when they finished in last place in 2012.
    They just have to see who is available,at what price,age,length of contract,then make the decision.
    I wouldn’t give up a draft pick by signing a 35 year old player that want’s 15-20 million a year,but almost any decent fa player is going to make us better immediately,and chances are,a draft pick won’t ever help us,so we should not be afraid to sign any good free agent.

    Right now,the Yankees should keep all of their picks,unless it just feels right to sign a good fa.
    This way we can get below the 189,reset the lt to 17%,have a ton of picks to try to build a new core,then as we get closer to clearing cc,tex,arod,off the books,spend like crazy,and hopefully we have a new core by then.

    Aaron Nola is the Yankees 18th pick in some mock drafts.He was 12-0,with a 1.68 era,0.81 whip in 2013 in college,k’d 117 in 118 innings.

    Here is some video

    http://bigleaguefutures.net/1/.....aron-nola/

  48. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:33 pm

    IMO we do not need to focus on more pitching prospects. We have plenty.

    We should be focusing on areas of need on the Offensive side.

  49. blake November 4th, 2013 at 7:37 pm

    @PeteAbe: Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit .273/.338/.466 this season and Brian McCann .256/.336/.461. McCann has a 99 OPS+ the last 2 years, Salty 108

    This is kinda what I’ve been saying…..McCann is still better but probably won’t be as much so as the difference in contracts they’ll get

  50. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:40 pm

    That #18 should go for slickest SS or 3b prospect we can find.

    Definitely a college guy.

  51. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:46 pm

    Hey. Listen up.

    Bartolo is available.

    No QO offered.

    :)

  52. ron November 4th, 2013 at 7:46 pm

    If a great looking pitcher is sitting at number 18,you have to pick him.
    It just depends on what is available.
    Look what would of happened if we signed cole.
    But maybe there is a great looking college 3b,that is close to ml ready.
    Imo,we have to draft some college kids that are older,like we did with Eric Jagielo.
    Cole was drafted out of college,and not long after that,in the majors.

    With high school kids,they are several years away,and it is impossible to know how they will turn out.
    If i’m the Yankees,i’d pick some college kids that are almost ready for the majors,where you can get a real good read on them.
    Then after a few years,jump into some high school kids.
    We have to stop drafting so many high schoolers,for now.
    Draft some college players that can make an almost immediate impact.

  53. joeman November 4th, 2013 at 7:49 pm

    ron November 4th, 2013 at 7:28 pm
    The rs turned it around in one year by signing a bunch of crappy free agents.
    Yes they did have ells,buchholz,lester.ortiz,pedroia,but they had them when they finished in last place in 2012.

    ————————————————–
    like the NYY of 2013..the RS had a lot of injuries in 12..Ortiz,Ellsbury and Pedroia all missed a lot of time

  54. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:50 pm

    Agree Ron.

    Except that we should focus more on position prospects for now.

    Our MiLB system is flooded with all kinds of arms. Some very high potential ones too.

    We should concentrate on developing the ones we have instead of just adding more to an already overcrowded field.

  55. J. Alfred Prufrock November 4th, 2013 at 7:50 pm

    Crap, draft a GD position player will ya.

    MTU – I don’t suggest that they all make the team the same year.

    But they could all ultimately be in that rotation within a few year, if they ever made smart decisions and developed pitchers properly, assuming progressand health on the part of those young arms. It’s not impossible, look at what the Giants did. We’re just used to the Yankees having short attention spans and failing to be able to take high-end talent to the next level.

    Cashman has these “homegrown” aspirations but doesn’t really know how to pull if off. It’s too bad, and I’d hate to see more of the same with the likes of Jo-Ram, Manny, Shawn Greene, Bryan Mitchell, etc. Like we’ve been discussing, let’s hope there’s a sea change with the new man, Gil Paterson, on the scene.

  56. Bret The Hitman November 4th, 2013 at 7:50 pm

    Dioner Navarro is all we need. There is plenty of depth behind him with Cervelli, Romine, Murphy and Sanchez. We have a parade of catchers in the pipeline.

    I think Choo should be a priority because for the money, I want a middle order bat and Choo fits the profile much better than McCann.

    Ichiro, Wells, Soriano and Gardner are all entering walk years. You just can’t leave that OF barren. It’s really irresponsible.

    And assuming you spend big dollars on Choo you probably can’t have McCann as well.

    Meanwhile you might be able to afford Cano + Choo + Navarro + 2 starters (Tanaka, Jimenez, Kuroda).

  57. J. Alfred Prufrock November 4th, 2013 at 7:52 pm

    Hey ron, thanks for that info.

  58. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 7:53 pm

    Good post bret.

    JAP-

    Let’s hope so.

    Because it doesn’t matter how much talent you have if you can’t develop it properly.

    And as we both know we have plenty of talent in the system already.

    ;)

  59. joeman November 4th, 2013 at 7:58 pm

    Gerrit Cole

  60. pat November 4th, 2013 at 8:00 pm

    MLB_PR
    Francisco Liriano of #Pirates (NL) & Mariano Rivera of #Yankees (AL) win 2013 MLB Comeback Player of the Year Awards.

  61. MTU November 4th, 2013 at 8:03 pm

    Another frickin’ A-Rod thread ——–>

    :(

  62. ron November 4th, 2013 at 8:06 pm

    All i’m saying is,we should draft a college pitcher like cole that was developed by someone else.We just don’t do well developing pitchers.
    I don’t think our problem is with drafting them.
    They need to learn how to throw changeups.

  63. J. Alfred Prufrock November 4th, 2013 at 8:10 pm

    MTU, yep, we’re loaded with good arms. Even Heredia is making a comeback in the system, and this Gallegos kid, way down there but potentially a fast mover, is supposed to be a more talented Nova. DePaula, I imagine, I should get down here towards the end of 2014, if all goes well.

    Primum, no nocere would be a good start ;)


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