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Worth a draft pick? Sorting through the qualifying offers

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Nov 05, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Yesterday, 13 players were given qualifying offers. Three of them were Yankees, and the other 10 now carry the added weight of draft pick compensation should the Yankees sign them this offseason. How many are worth it? That might depend on whether the Yankees are able to bring back some of their own free agents. The fact each of these players has a $14.1-million offer on the table is a pretty good indication that they’re good players. The real question is whether they fit the Yankees needs, and whether they’re worth losing a first-round draft pick.

World Series Red Sox Cardinals BaseballCarlos Beltran
Right fielder
The Yankees want to get younger, and Beltran won’t help them do that. But the Yankees also want to get better, and Beltran could help them do that. he turns 37 in April, but he also hit .282/.343/.493 the past two years — with an identical OPS+ each season — and his postseason track record is potent. He’s a switch hitter, a solid right fielder, and getting a few DH starts (with Ichiro Suzuki or Vernon Wells in right) might help him stay healthy. Age is easily the biggest knock on him, but it’s a significant one for an older team like the Yankees. I happen to think he’d be a nice fit — it helps that the other aging outfielders become free agents at the end of this season — but it’s also worth noting that Beltran’s not the best right fielder out there.

Shin-Soo Choo
Right fielder
In this case, alphabetical order is convenient. The only reason Beltran’s not the market’s best right fielder is because Choo is available. He’s not a switch-hitter like Beltran, but he his a lefty, which should play well in Yankee Stadium. He’s not a typical power hitter, but he’s hit at least 20 homers three times, and again, Yankee Stadium might help him hit a few more. Mostly, Choo does a nice job getting on base, and he adds a little bit of speed and a little bit of power to make him a good all-around offensive player. Biggest concerns: Contract size (Choo could get $100 million this winter), lack of typical corner outfield power (the Yankees really do face a staggering need for power hitters), and significant struggles against lefties (hit .215/.347/.265 against them last year). He’s not a perfect player, but you’re not going to find many of those. He does a lot of things well, and if you’re looking for a younger, impact, corner outfielder, this might be the best bet.

Nelson Cruz
Right fielder
Here’s the other right fielder on the market, and this one comes with several questions. He’s 33 years old. He’s played more than 128 games only once. He’s coming off a Biogenesis suspension. He’s not a particularly good defensive player. That said, Cruz has slugged better than .500 in four of the past five years, and just this year he hit .266/.327/.506 with 27 homers in a year when he had to sit out 50 games. The guy can hit, and he can hit for power, and the Yankees could limit his defensive problems by adding him to the regular rotation at designated hitter (and frankly, right field isn’t too hard to play at Yankee Stadium, just turn and watch all the homers go right over your head). For Cruz, the draft pick compensation could have an impact on his free agent value. He’s probably the third-best of these right field options — fourth best if you count Curtis Granderson — but at some point, he could stand out as the best bat out there. He might not be any team’s offseason priority, but that doesn’t mean he won’t become a desirable fallback plan.

World Series Cardinals Red Sox BaseballStephen Drew
Shortstop
A year ago, Drew turned down the Yankees and took less money to play in Boston. The reason? He wanted to stay at shortstop, and the decision resulted in a World Series ring for his finger and a $14.1 million offer on the table. Now the question is, what would the Yankees be able to offer Drew this winter? With Derek Jeter apparently expected to be the team’s starting shortstop again, would Drew take a job as a backup plan — presumably playing second or third if Jeter’s able to play short — or would that be a non-starter? He’s a left-handed hitter, which is nice bonus for a middle infielder, but worth losing a first-round pick for a guy who might become a relatively light-hitting third baseman? Most of Drew’s value comes in his ability to play short, and it’s worth noting that an offensive option like Jhonny Peralta and a defensive option like Brendan Ryan would not require draft pick compensation.

Jacoby Ellsbury
Center fielder
Other than Robinson Cano, Ellsbury is probably the best free agent on the market. He’s legitimately one of the top leadoff hitters in baseball, he plays a good center field, and he runs like crazy on the bases. He’s 30 years old and he hits left handed; he’s basically a better version of Brett Gardner. The question for the Yankees has to be, how much better? There’s no question that it’s a significant gap, but frankly, the Yankees already have a left-handed hitter, speed-oriented center fielder who plays good defense and can get on base at a pretty good clip. Ellsbury had a .781 OPS this year. Gardner had a .759. Again, no question Ellsbury has proven to be more productive and more consistent, but he doesn’t exactly fill a position of need for the Yankees. If the Yankees can swap Gardner for some pitching, then the situation would change considerably. For now, though, Ellsbury would be a better but also much more expensive version of something the Yankees already have.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Starting pitcher
Turns 30 years old in January, coming off a terrific season in Cleveland, and just three years ago he was considered one of the very best young pitchers in baseball. What’s not to like? In short, what’s not to like are the 2011 and 2012 seasons when Jimenez had 30 losses and a 5.03 ERA. Pitching is always a bit risky, and the risk with Jimenez is right there on the back of his baseball card. That said, his upside is in the numbers as well. How about a 1.82 second-half ERA this season? How about 194 strikeouts, which was only the third-highest total of his career? How about the fact a four-year deal would only take him into his mid-30s? There isn’t a ton of starting pitching on the market this winter, and the Jimenez upside is higher than most. For a Yankees team that badly needs pitching — especially if Hiroki Kuroda doesn’t come back, and Masahiro Tanaka lands elsewhere — this might be a necessary sort of risk.

McCannBrian McCann
Catcher
A left-handed-hitting catcher who’s had at least 20 homers in six straight seasons? Let the Yankees drooling begin. McCann doesn’t turn 30 until February, but already he’s caught nearly 9,000 innings in the big leagues. If Joe Girardi wants veteran experience behind the plate, he should have little problem with McCann. He’s not an elite defensive player, but his bat makes up for it, and he would most certainly fill the Yankees need for some additional power. The downside is directly connected to his upside: McCann is a catcher who’s caught nearly 9,000 innings. That’s a lot of wear and tear, and even for a fairly young guy, there has to be some level of durability concern. Maybe not for this year, but perhaps in the future when first base is still filled by Mark Teixeira, DH might belong to Alex Rodriguez, and the Yankees minor league catching depth might be begging for a big league opportunity. It’s also worth noting that A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are also out there as offensive catching upgrades. McCann is a special player, and the contract would likely be far more of a concern than the lost draft pick.

Kendrys Morales
Designated hitter
Switch hitter whose power numbers actually slipped this year. It’s a bit of a surprise that the Mariners gave him a qualifying offer, but that might not be the thing that keeps the Yankees from showing much interest. The Yankees do have a hole at designated hitter, but they also might need that hole to give veteran hitters a rest now and then. They might not be in a position to hand that job to someone as defensively limited as Morales. The fact he would cost a draft pick is just another reason to stay away.

Mike Napoli
First baseman
Unless the Yankees believe Napoli can become a regular catcher again, he seems to fall in the Morales category as a potent bat that might not have a spot in the Yankees lineup. Yes, he could fill the DH opening — and he could be an awfully potent DH at that — but can the Yankees afford to have a regular DH who’s only defensive option is first base? That’s a hard thing to pull off with this roster, and it’s surely not a best-case scenario given durability questions with Jeter and Rodriguez. Napoli’s a really nice hitter, but his defensive limitations — more so than his draft pick compensation — might keep the Yankees from going after him.

Ervin Santana
Starting pitcher
When MLB Trade Rumors picked its Top 50 free agents and guessed a destination for each one, Santana ranked sixth — sixth! — and MLBTR projected the Yankees as the team that would sign him. Two things that stand out: Is Santana really that good, and is he really a strong Yankees target? Well, he turns 31 this winter, and despite some down years, he’s had a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past six seasons. Most recently, he had a 3.24 ERA with the Royals this year, and that low ERA came with a 1.14 WHIP.  He’s been pretty good, and while he’s certainly not a can’t-miss ace, those simply can’t be found on the free agent market these days. The Yankees need starting pitching, and beyond Tanaka and Kuroda, the best free agent options seem to be Santana, Jimenez, Matt Garza and A.J. Burnett. Garza requires no draft pick compensation, which might help his case, but the reality is that there’s not a worry-free starting option out there. Santana on a multi-year with a lost draft pick? It might come to that.

Associated Press photos

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89 Responses to “Worth a draft pick? Sorting through the qualifying offers”

  1. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:23 am

    There isn’t of them worth the pick own their own simply because this club isn’t one player away.

    If they mean to lose that draft pick then it means they should forget the budget and sign multiple players.

  2. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:27 am

    Assuming Cano is coming back regardless for probably 8/200ish.

    There are 2 options.

    1. Sign everybody you can and forget the budget
    2. Sign as many non QO guys that fit as possible that keeps you under the budget.

    What is to acceptable is signing like McCann and nothing else and pretending that’ll be good enough.

    All that leads to is a marginally better team than last year and no 1st round pick…..continued mediocrity .

  3. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 11:29 am

    Just looking at every QO that was made across MLB, I’d say the Kuroda offer had to be the toughest decision. Based on the way Kuroda finished the season, this had to of been a tough choice for Hal IF he is truly chasing that $189. If Kuroda is gonna play in the U.S. next season, I say he takes the Yankee QO.

  4. Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 11:29 am

    Target Santana. Interesting to read the comments regarding great 2nd sackers and how Ryne Sanberg gets glossed over ???? ROY, MVP, I’m not certain as to how many Gold Gloves and All Star selections he compiled but they were many. And to top this off he’s in the Hall of Fame. Robinson Cano is not better and has a way to go to even be in the same conversation.

  5. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 11:32 am

    Based on the Yankee picks recently, valuing a draft pick is, “casting a pearl before swine”. Foolish.

  6. AAA November 5th, 2013 at 11:32 am

    There isn’t of them worth the pick own their own simply because this club isn’t one player away.

    If they mean to lose that draft pick then it means they should forget the budget and sign multiple players

    ============================

    It’s going to be interesting to see how serious they are about this. One thing I think is true for sure is that it’s not something that can be put off for a year. Which is to say, if you go all in this year, you’re staying all in and paying the 50% tax until the Teixeira/Sabathia/Rodriguez deals expire.

  7. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 11:42 am

    Decisions on personnel should Not be made on the, “1 player away” philosophy. Players get hurt, (as we well know), they can have a down season for all kinds of personal reasons, they can get suspended, etc. There is No Way you can look at a MLB roster and forecast whether you are “1 Player Away”. That’s Bellview stuff again.

  8. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:44 am

    DONNYBROOK says:
    November 5, 2013 at 11:32 am
    Based on the Yankee picks recently, valuing a draft pick is, “casting a pearl before swine”. Foolish.

    That thinking makes no sense…… And is a great way to stay old and mediocre……

  9. mick November 5th, 2013 at 11:46 am

    Pat M….and not a mention of Jeff Kent. Guy deserves HOF mention.

  10. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 11:49 am

    Yanks won 85 games with Cano and Stewart playing the entire season. You want to stick with them in 2014, I prefer going with McCann and Infante. Now, THAT “Is a great way to stay mediocre”.

  11. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:50 am

    If Arod does get suspended all year then that gives them around 80 million to spend. Cano will take up 25 of that…..so that’s down to 55.

    With 55 million they could sign Kuroda and Tanaka and a couple of non QO guys like Salty and Peralta and at least put a decent team on the field while keeping the draft pick and making his Halness happy

  12. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:51 am

    “Yanks won 85 games with Cano and Stewart playing the entire season. You want to stick with them in 2014, I prefer going with McCann and Infante. Now, THAT “Is a great way to stay mediocre”.”

    You’d probably win the same or less games and have no draft pick

  13. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 11:52 am

    Jeff Kent gets my vote. Any player with the stones to get in Bond’s face gets extra credit.

  14. luis November 5th, 2013 at 11:52 am

    Good afternoon everyone,

    I say no…None of those players are worth the draft pick on their own…

    Good to see that the Yankees made a QO to Granderson, Kuroda and Cano..

  15. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:54 am

    Kent probably should get in but he was an awful defender who had his own PED suspicions I believe…..based on his numbers at 2B though he’d be hard to keep out without evidence

  16. Mottsx November 5th, 2013 at 11:54 am

    Sadly 55M is the Rays entire payroll.

  17. Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 11:56 am

    mck. I knew Jeff from his days at Huntington Beach and played lots of golf with his wife Dana’s parents as we were members at the same Club. Jeff will make the Hall but it’ll time though I think.

  18. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 11:57 am

    blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:13 am

    Sherman said they had 80 million to spend this winter in that piece…..as Axisa showed yestersay it’s really more like 50……and Cano will take half of that if they sign him

    There is no way they can field a title contender under the cap unless Arods suspension is most of the season”

    Yes and Yes.

    So where does this leave us? I see three scenarios.

    1. The Yanks aren’t serious about 189 and will proceed as they have in the past. That’s possible. They gave QOs to Grandy and Kuroda and if they sign Cano they cannot afford both and stay under 189. Can’t afford either and make a play for Tanaka.

    2. They plan to compete and stay under 189 because they are counting on Arod being suspended for a full season. Unless they have some kind of inside info this makes no sense to me.

    3. They plan to stay under 189 and just do the best they can. That’s the mediocrity (or respectability) approach. If that’s the case, all this talk of McCann, Beltran, Choo et al isn’t really relevant. The only way for this team to approach 85 wins and stay under 189 is to spend all available resources on pitching and hope for the best out of their lineup. That assumes Cano is re-signed. If Cano walks, then they can make prob one position player move plus a Cano replacement. But basically, it will have to be pitching, pitching, pitching.

  19. blake November 5th, 2013 at 11:58 am

    Pat M,
    Kent is a no brainer based on the numbers at 2B but the media really hates him

  20. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 11:59 am

    You hug those draft picks, and you’re gonna win 85 again in 2014. + you’re playing right into Hal’s hands and his making all kinds of change with the $189. You’re giving him an excuse to make obscene money, And a standing ovation at the same time. (Head turning right and left)

  21. blake November 5th, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    Donny your team without Cano probably isn’t even .500 and has no draft pick either

  22. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    A-rod is not likely to be suspended most of the season IMO.

    I don’t really see more than about 100 games. Max.

    Might even get less.

  23. yankinvegas November 5th, 2013 at 12:05 pm

    Here are the guys I want us to sign :
    Cano – 8 @ 216
    Kuroda – 1 @ 15
    Tanaka – 6 @ 66 + 88 million posting fee
    Logan – 3 @ 13.5
    Benoit – 2 @ 12
    Pierzynski – 2 @ 16
    Peralta – 2 @ 25
    Beltran – 3 @ 39

  24. Hankflorida November 5th, 2013 at 12:05 pm

    I started the discussion by putting Cano on the top of the list as the greatest 2nd basemen of all time based on the fact that you had to see a player perform especially to appreciate his defensive ability. I did not see Hornsby play but was close enough to that era to know that his fielding was not spectacular. I did see Charlie Gehringer who had a lifetime batting average over .300 play, and he was a much greater offensively then with the glove. 2nd base is primarily a position where defense trumps offense, and there were very few power hitters at that position. If Soriano had stayed at 2nd base, he would be a HOF candidate if his fielding had warranted that he could play that position without hurting the team. The fact that Cano is such an outstanding fielder and has the power numbers and BA makes him truly unique in baseball.

  25. yankinvegas November 5th, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    By mid-season, a rotation of ARod, Peralta, Jeter, Nunez at ss-3b
    I really think that the captain will come back strong to prove all the doubters wrong.

  26. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    You add McCann and Infante while subtracting Cano, and you’re predicting Less than 81 Wins? I believe that is WAY off.

  27. blake November 5th, 2013 at 12:08 pm

    DONNYBROOK says:
    November 5, 2013 at 12:07 pm
    You add McCann and Infante while subtracting Cano, and you’re predicting Less than 81 Wins? I believe that is WAY off.

    They were lucky to win. 85 games…..chances are with the same caliber team they’d win less

  28. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 12:08 pm

    A-Rod is gonna get hammered for “obstruction of justice”. Google Richard Nixon.

  29. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:09 pm

    Vegas-

    There is no way the Yankees can afford all that and stay under.

    I think Benoit and Logan are superfluous.

    Cabral is a cheaper version of Logan. And Benoit serves no purpose that we cannot already fill in-house.

    Beltran costs the 18 pick.

  30. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:14 pm

    Kuroda, Tanaka, AJ P, and Jhonny P. are good gets.

    No draft picks lost.

  31. luis November 5th, 2013 at 12:15 pm

    Pat M,

    Did a little research about Sandberg and how does Cano compares to him…Just from a stat point of view…No GG or ROY, since I think both awards are a little subjective… If you take both careers you see this numbers:

    OPS+ 114 S vs 125 C top year 145 S vs 148 C

    OPS 795 S vs 860 C top year 913 S vs 929 C

    BA 285 S vs 309 C top year 314 S vs 342 C

    SLG 452 S vs 504 C top year 559 S vs 550 C

    WAR 67.6 S vs 45.2 C avg WAR 4.225 S vs 5.02 C

    Noting that Cano’s career isn’t over and still has a few years ahead of him…You can say without a hint of a doubt that Cano is the better overall player…I didn’t used dWAR because I think UZR is a flawed stat…But took WAR as a whole to see the end of the line value of both players.

    So short of an early decline, I don’t see how when all is said and done Cano is not one of the two best 2B is history

  32. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 12:17 pm

    “They were lucky to win. 85 games…..chances are with the same caliber team they’d win less”

    The baseline for this team right now is not 85 games. It’s closer to 75 and that’s with Cano. I’m not sure folks on this blog truly appreciate how deficient the Yanks’ pitching is now and how hard it will be to improve it this off season. Sure Tanaka would be a great addition but realistically, what are the Yanks chances of landing him? What are the Yanks chances of Kuroda returning AND pitching as well as he did last year? I’d say 1 in 3. What are the chances of CC returning to Ace form? I’d say less than 1 in 4. And who else is out there in the marketplace that could make a real difference?

  33. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 12:21 pm

    MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    “A-rod is not likely to be suspended most of the season IMO.

    I don’t really see more than about 100 games. Max.

    Might even get less.”

    I agree. I put it at 50-100. 50 would be going by the book. 100 would be a message that Arod is a bad guy but MLB is ugly too.

  34. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    Bigdan-

    IMO you are too pessimistic.

    I’d expect a significant bounce back from CC.

    Tanaka is only money. Most of which does not go towards 189. They should go hard after him.

    If they do they likely will come out on top.

    Kuroda does concern me. I am not sure he will opt to return. I can only hope he does.

  35. AAA November 5th, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    Sure Tanaka would be a great addition but realistically, what are the Yanks chances of landing him?

    =================================

    This is a good question. The days where “If the Yankees want it, they’ll get it” are gone. Their will be legit competition here.

  36. blake November 5th, 2013 at 12:25 pm

    Tanaka isn’t an open bid either…..for all we know the Dodgers could drop 80 million on the bidding and take the Yanks out of the equation all together ……I highly doubt Hal will drop a crazy number like that to ensure they get him

  37. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    Blake-

    You are assuming the current posting system stays in place.

    Likely it won’t.

    ;)

  38. luis November 5th, 2013 at 12:27 pm

    Blake and Bigdan,

    Spot on…The Pithagorean prediction was around 78-79…They did won a few more games than they should.

    Dan,

    While I agree in the general premise of yours…I don’t think that our pitching situation is as dire…I do think Nova will surprise you and CC will become a much better version of himself than last season…We are too far away from a CC team…Again, at this point it is better to start a rebuilding process

  39. luis November 5th, 2013 at 12:28 pm

    Got to go…But I will read later and answer if there are any topics directed to me…Good afternoon all

  40. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 12:29 pm

    That’s the thing about Tanaka. I could be wrong and but I don’t think the posting process will change. I think $65MM is a strong bid but the Dodgers could go $75-80MM. Look what they did with Puig. And I think they are seriously motivated on Tanaka.

  41. AAA November 5th, 2013 at 12:29 pm

    You are assuming the current posting system stays in place.

    Likely it won’t.

    ===========================

    Wouldn’t it be similarly presumptuous to think that changes to the posting system will help the Yankees?

  42. chicken little November 5th, 2013 at 12:32 pm

    vegas — to stay under the 189 million (really $177 or so), the yanks could only afford two (maybe two and a half) out of the following (assuming cano, tanaka, and kuroda sign for the maounts you list):

    Logan – 3 @ 13.5
    Benoit – 2 @ 12
    Pierzynski – 2 @ 16
    Peralta – 2 @ 25
    Beltran – 3 @ 39

  43. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:32 pm

    No it wouldn’t because that would allow them to have a shot at Tanaka by merely being within the top 3 in money offered.

    The actual choice of which team would be the player’s.

    I’m gonna bet that Tanaka would choose to become a Yankee.

    Maybe I’m wrong.

  44. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:35 pm

    What young Japanese player wouldn’t want to play on a team that is World famous and has Ichiro and Kuroda on it ?

    And which also pays well.

    That’s my theory.

    ;)

  45. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 12:35 pm

    You guys Not only over value the Picks, but you also over value the SP’s. If it’s an arm that goes consistently 8 innings I can see it. Is that Kuroda? NOPE. Is that Tanaka? NOPE. He’s gonna have to adjust to the MLB every 5th game. We saw last season how Mgrs are Not saving their bullpens. The SP goes 6 at best and then the Mgr runs through the entire Pen with his R\R L\L matchups. He saves nobody, and then when need be, cranks up the AAA shuttle. Other than the extremely elite few that can consistently go 7+ or better, SP is no longer “the keys to the kingdom”.

  46. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    Well then we are in great shape because we have more good relief arms than just about anyone in baseball.

    We are loaded.

    ;)

  47. pkyankfan69 November 5th, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    What young Japanese player wouldn’t want to play on a team that is World famous and has Ichiro and Kuroda on it ?
    ——–
    I think you nailed why we signed Ichiro to a 2 year deal… It wasn’t pure idiocy, it was a brilliant looking ahead move to help greese the wheels with Tanaka! ;)

  48. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    If the Cards non-tender Freese we definitely should consider him ( I think they will).

    He would only cost about 4-5 mil/yr.

    Excellent buy low candidate.

    Only 30.

  49. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    I don’t think we actually disagree much here. We all agree that Tanaka isn’t a sure thing. I’ll tell you what is a sure thing. Andy ain’t coming back. Neither is Mo. CC not being an Ace is pretty close to a sure thing in my opinion. And then you have a couple significant questions with Kuroda and Nova. I guess I am being pretty pessimistic with they Yanks’ pitching.

    On a brighter note, I had Pioneer Woman’s baked beans again!

  50. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    Greetings …. longtime lurker, long ago poster….

    I’ve been thinking (and looking forward to the Hot Stove season (what else is there if your team is not in the post season)…

    Several scenarios are possible for the Yanks, but the one I least favor is worrying about the Plan 189…I’m a fan, not an owner. Ownership makes gobs more $$ when the team is in the post-season, so that should be rule #1 – get to the post season.

    The farm system is not totally devoid of assets, but what assets there are, live at the bottom tiers. I believe it will take five years to restore. But it should be restored, not just so the team can produce another “core four”, but so that it has legitimate assets to sell off to acquire missing pieces. Where the organization erred was in gambling on “high risk, high reward” picks. That has to stop. This is a very deep draft that the NYY need to capitalize on. One can only hope that Granderson opts out and that leaves them with three picks in the top 75-ish.

    Back to my 5-year point… I also believe that one way to weather the drought in the farm is to use the George method for the next five years – sell off the existing upper level assets, i.e., Gardner, Nova, etc. to replenish the farm and buy players that are in their early thirties on 4-5 year contracts, without QO’s. There are enough quality SP/RP and position players to get back to the playoffs and refill the coffers (because this is gonna be expensive….).

    After patching things up using George’s method, they can get back to running an organization as it should be – Stick’s way, which is what brought about the Jeter era in the first place.

    Thanks.

    Steve

  51. blake November 5th, 2013 at 12:47 pm

    Great post Steve…..welcome or welcome back

  52. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    PK-

    I think we should make use of Matsui too.

    Hire him to be an Asian scout and goodwill ambassador.

    Let him be like an Asian version of Reggie’s role.

    :)

  53. blake November 5th, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    Missing the playoffs costs the Yankees more money than going over the tax limit would most likely …..hopefully Hal realizes this now

  54. DONNYBROOK November 5th, 2013 at 12:49 pm

    I reserve judgement on CC. I believe if he packs on some lbs, he will be an Ace once again.

  55. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:49 pm

    Dan-

    I wouldn’t light a match anywhere near you or Blake.

    :)

  56. jacksquat November 5th, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    yankinvegas November 5th, 2013 at 12:05 pm
    Here are the guys I want us to sign :
    Cano – 8 @ 216
    Kuroda – 1 @ 15
    Tanaka – 6 @ 66 + 88 million posting fee
    Logan – 3 @ 13.5
    Benoit – 2 @ 12
    Pierzynski – 2 @ 16
    Peralta – 2 @ 25
    Beltran – 3 @ 39

    Too much money and/or too many years for most of those.

  57. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    Blake-

    He’s huddled up with his advisors furiously crunching #’s using a Cray Supercomputer.

    As soon as it spits out the answer as to what’s best action will be taken one way or another.

    ;)

  58. pkyankfan69 November 5th, 2013 at 12:55 pm

    This is how Hal and the Yankees brass make their big decisions these days:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY

  59. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 12:57 pm

    MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:49 pm
    Dan-

    I wouldn’t light a match anywhere near you or Blake.

    :)

    Haha, making the pioneer woman’s chipotle chicken chilli today! It’s made with Mexican beer.

    http://thepioneerwoman.com/coo.....ken-chili/

  60. MTU November 5th, 2013 at 12:59 pm

    PK-

    I think that’s how the whole country works.

    :)

  61. pkyankfan69 November 5th, 2013 at 12:59 pm

    So true MTU

  62. chicken little November 5th, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    Steve — excellent post and I totally agree with it. I would add one thing, though — expand Stick’s role over the next 5 years to insure that the plan is properly executed without other individuals interceding and awarding silly contracts.

  63. pkyankfan69 November 5th, 2013 at 1:02 pm

    I just sat in a parking lot in Delaware for 45 minutes, that’s what I get for doing a lousy job planning my daily schedule of appointments. On to the next 2 boring meetings and then finally home!

  64. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:05 pm

    My guess is that if the budget is $260M/year (which will cost $300 with tax), the team can be in the hunt every year for the next five years and with the additional $50-$100M/year in “winning money”, more than offset the tax aspects. It shouldn’t be too difficult to load up the pitching staff with quality SP/RP (5 starters + CC = $100M, bullpen another 25), IF for 75 ish, OF for another 40 and add in the benefits and additional 15 rostered players and call it good. It’s easy when it’s not my money and frankly, I don’t benefit one nickle when Forbes says the franchise just increased another gazillion….

  65. Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 1:06 pm

    wanzies222. I certainly like your viewpoint and you have my vote…..Luis. Let’s see how Cano ages ( I have expressed concerns about this issue ). Subjective as they may seem, you cannot just toss aside awards like ROY, MVP, Gold Gloves, All-Star selections. Sanberg had a few good players around him but nothing like what Robbie has been blessed with. I’m not saying Ryne was better per say, but one cannot dismiss him when the conversation turns to the alltime great 2nd basemen and Cano isn’t there as of yet. Dodger Cano money good be redistributed towards the Tanaka to LA fund

  66. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:17 pm

    I’ll let you guys fill out the roster, but I think Cashman could find a market for Gardner, Nova, et al to fill up the lower-mid ranks of the farm system and then be just as aggressive with non-QO FA (Tanaka, Garza, Nolasco, Oh Seung-Hwan, Yoon Suk-Min, Kuroda, Mujica, Balfour, Logan and I mean all of them..), then Navarro, Bello, Peralta, Uribe/Infante, Chris Young and you’re probably pretty competitive. As the expiring contracts expire, you let them expire (think Soriano, Ichiro, CC, Teixeira).

    I think a lot of you have said the same thing…. Hal either needs to be all in or all out, non half-axxed. He had half-axxed this past year and I don’t think he liked the result (not talking about the standings, but the bottom line).

    Steve

  67. yankinvegas November 5th, 2013 at 1:30 pm

    Freese is enticing. Cheaper than Peralta.
    By the way, I think that the 189 will not be in play and that the extra $$ to Jeter is a sign to agents that the Yankees are open for business.
    I feel that Hal has had enough and that if he’s going to get ripped, get ripped with a championship team And I think that Hal will authorize a huge posting # for Tanaka to get back at the Dodgers for bailing out Boston.
    Gee, I wish I was Steinbrenner’s son, because that is how I would feel. 250-300 payroll every year and screw MLB. I’ll pay your damn luxury tax, but you will give me your championship trophy 10 times in the next 20 years.

  68. chicken little November 5th, 2013 at 1:30 pm

    Glad to see most of us are in agreement — don’t do things halfsies. Either be all in or rebuild, get yourself under the magical $189, make smart short term commitments to the second tier players, and avoid long term contracts during the rebuilding process. This might cost the Yanks Cano, though as I believe, he should be offered a 6 year guaranteed deal max, with any additional years based on performance for the prior year. The Yanks keep getting burned by the 8-10 year deals.

  69. Shame Spencer November 5th, 2013 at 1:30 pm

    wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:17 pm

    I’ll let you guys fill out the roster, but I think Cashman could find a market for Gardner, Nova, et al to fill up the lower-mid ranks of the farm system and then be just as aggressive with non-QO FA (Tanaka, Garza, Nolasco, Oh Seung-Hwan, Yoon Suk-Min, Kuroda, Mujica, Balfour, Logan and I mean all of them..), then Navarro, Bello, Peralta, Uribe/Infante, Chris Young and you’re probably pretty competitive. As the expiring contracts expire, you let them expire (think Soriano, Ichiro, CC, Teixeira).

    —————

    Yeah, this is what they should be doing.

  70. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    Footnote: I also think, if it were me, I would be investing in as many reclamation projects as possible, i.e., the guys who, if their stock increases, can be given a QO next year and let them walk, so that the draft pick comes back as the real return on investment (Josh Johnson, Corey Hart, Grady Sizemore, etc.). Worst case, they become extra pieces that have value.

    That’s why I advocate selling everything in the house now for solid A+ to AA prospects… the one thing the Yankees have that is an advantage is coin. Gardner, Nova et al are not vital.. they have greater value for what they can bring back, vs what they can produce.

  71. Mottsx November 5th, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    They already screwed Mariano and Andy on their retirement years… If this is Jeter’s last year, instead of giving him an extra few million, they should be building him a winning team as a send off.

  72. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    I don’t think we’ll ever see a Yankee team sell off veterans for prospects. Not sure that’s even a good policy especially with young veterans. The Yanks did that once I believe with the Lowell deal. They felt at the time they were dealing from strength but the three pitching prospects they got in exchange didn’t work out.

    A better policy is to just sign the right players at the right price, invest heavily in your farm system and develop and give your young players opportunities to play.

  73. Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 1:39 pm

    Could have started to move some of those assets last year at this time because had they there would be some nice pieces already in the fold with the next wave of moves taking place tis winter. IE, Starlin Castro, Ervin Santana

  74. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:40 pm

    chicken – I don’t believe this is a short term fix… this problem goes back several years and will take several years to fix (average incubation period of a prospect being 3-5 yrs). Hence, I’m okay with a bunch of 4-5 year contracts for 30-31 year olds. I’m not okay with finishing behind Boston in the meantime, though.

  75. AAA November 5th, 2013 at 1:40 pm

    No it wouldn’t because that would allow them to have a shot at Tanaka by merely being within the top 3 in money offered.

    The actual choice of which team would be the player’s.

    ===================================

    When does the player get to make the choice? Is it a 3 team free agent battle where he can negotiate with 3 teams?

  76. Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 1:43 pm

    wanzies222. You know that if they had the chestnuts to hire a new GM and his staff void of any Front Office nonsense ( Randy Levine ) this is exactly what would be happening. Think what John Hart could be constructing if he came aboard last winter or even if Towers had stayed. The posibillities would have been endless

  77. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 1:43 pm

    It makes no difference if your budget is $189 or 300MM. You shouldn’t sign the right player to the wrong contract and you shouldn’t sign the wrong player at all.

  78. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:43 pm

    Semantics, but I think we’re all saying the same thing… the details will be dependent on the particulars of each player’s situation. Long story short – what the roster and the system have ain’t cuttin’ it…and it will time and money to fix. Thank goodness it’s not my time or money…..

  79. wanzies222 November 5th, 2013 at 1:45 pm

    Pat M. – Unfortunately, every organization has to deal with the Levines of the world… egos, power, blah, blah….many of the owner-driven decision were not baseball-based and it shows.

  80. chicken little November 5th, 2013 at 1:46 pm

    wanzies222 — you might not be able to have it both ways. i fear that 4-5 year contracts while the system gets fixed will put the yanks in contention but not among the elite because as of now there are no superstars or even true stars left on the roster. with the “brain-trust” in place now, the yanks will undoubtedly make silly signings to fill perceived holes, have fringe players clog spots where we need young players “breaking their teeth in,” and i fear, a couple of stupid trades just to “stay in the race” and put some “fannies” in the seats.

  81. Shame Spencer November 5th, 2013 at 1:47 pm

    Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 1:39 pm

    Could have started to move some of those assets last year at this time because had they there would be some nice pieces already in the fold with the next wave of moves taking place tis winter.

    —————-

    The Yanks have sadly missed every single opportunity to trade high on their players… it’s so frustrating.

    Think about everything this organization has invested in Phil Hughes. Couldn’t even get a draft pick for him, smh.

  82. bigdan22 November 5th, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    Pat M. November 5th, 2013 at 1:43 pm

    “wanzies222. You know that if they had the chestnuts to hire a new GM and his staff void of any Front Office nonsense ( Randy Levine ) this is exactly what would be happening. Think what John Hart could be constructing if he came aboard last winter or even if Towers had stayed. The posibillities would have been endless”

    I pretty much agree with this. I think for fundamental change you would have had to change the folks at the top and start fresh. Look at what the Jets are doing with their new GM. They have a plan and seem (so far) to be avoiding quick fixes. The plan is (1) cut your dead wood, (2) fix your budget and (3) develop and play young talent. If you are smart and a little lucky you can even be interesting and somewhat competitive while you’re re-building.

  83. AAA November 5th, 2013 at 1:54 pm

    The Yanks have sadly missed every single opportunity to trade high on their players… it’s so frustrating.

    ================================

    Remember when they sold high on Jesus Montero?

  84. blake November 5th, 2013 at 2:01 pm

    Remember when they sold high on Jesus Montero?”

    Sadly I appears the Mariners sold high on Pineda as well

  85. Tackelberry November 5th, 2013 at 2:05 pm

    and where is Montero now?

  86. Hankflorida November 5th, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    The question is can Hal stay under the cap and still compete for postseason play, or based on his competition, does he have to spend more to even sniff the Wildcard? I think that he has to open his pocketbook and resign Cano and Granderson and add Choo and Tanka in order to compete for the three spots in October. If you look at the Yankee championship teams over the years, it was not the Koufax and Drysdale aces but finess pitchers like Whitey Ford who were supported by a power offense.

  87. blake November 5th, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    I think it’s possible the yanks could put a playoff team on the field under the cap if Arod is out most or all of the season and if they have some good fortune…….

  88. PRDENTIST November 5th, 2013 at 3:13 pm

    I would stay away for Beltran, too old. I would focus on starting pitching and right now, Santana is the only one that may be worth losing a draft pick over.

  89. crorkz matz August 5th, 2014 at 10:57 pm

    gweejP Hey, thanks for the blog.Really thank you! Really Cool.

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