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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Spending the winter sorting through the unknown

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Nov 08, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Robinson Cano

We’ve known this for a while, but it really stood out yesterday when a group of reporters tried to ask Joe Girardi a few offseason questions: There are too many complete unknowns to have any sort of meaningful discussion about the Yankees right now. Every attempt to build expectations or talk about potential player moves is inevitably met with some sort of — so far — unanswerable question.

Here are 10 questions that we have no answer for at the moment. I’ve attempted to rank them, from 1 to 10, in order of how significantly the lack of answer affects the Yankees offseason (there are some questions that significantly impact next season, but don’t mean much this winter).

1. Will Robinson Cano be back?
The Yankees offseason really hinges on this question. Re-signing Cano impacts the short-term lineup, the long-term plans and the obvious budget concerns. If Cano re-signs, then the Yankees have their No. 3 hitter and they can try to build around him. If Cano doesn’t re-sign, then the team needs a whole new set of blueprints.

2. Is Alex Rodriguez going to be suspended?
For two obvious reasons: The impact on the lineup, and the impact on the budget. The Yankees have well over $20 million dedicated to this guy next year, and they don’t know whether they’re getting a refund or a player. And right now, there’s absolutely nothing they can do but wait for the appeal process to play out. The only good thing about the situation is that it’s one or the other: The Yankees either have their third baseman, or they have some extra money to spend on a replacement. They just need to know which it is as soon as possible.

3. How flexible is the $189-million plan?
This could be tied directly to the Rodriguez decision. If he’s suspended, getting below $189 million would be significantly easier. If he’s not, the Yankees might be forced to blow up that “goal not a mandate” in the name of building a competitive team. For now, they can address the free agent market relatively freely — even at $189 million, they have significant money to spend — but at some point, Brian Cashman might have to ask for a serious budget increase.

4. What’s Hiroki Kuroda’s plan?
If he wants to come back to the States, I have to believe the Yankees would be a serious consideration for Kuroda. He’s seemed to enjoy these past two years, he’s certainly pitched well, and the Yankees have made it clear they’d like to have him back. No Kuroda would likely force the Yankees to either search for a trade partner, or sign a different free agent starter to a longer-term contract. There are alternatives out there, just not many who will take a one-year deal and have an AL East track record.

5. When and how is the Japanese posting system being adjusted?
At this point, the entire baseball world seems to expect the Yankees to become involved in the Masahiro Tanaka bidding. It’s going to take a massive posting fee and a considerable contract, but Tanaka would provide some much-needed rotation strength and youth. Tanaka seems unlikely to be posted, though, until the posting system is adjusted. Will those changes help or hurt the Yankees chances, and how soon will we know? There’s no immediately available starter quite like Tanaka.

6. Can Derek Jeter play shortstop?
This would seem to be the sort of question that will have a huge impact on the Yankees offseason, but I’m not sure it will. The Yankees seem to have settled on the idea that Jeter will at least be an option at shortstop, and they already have Eduardo Nunez as a just-in-case backup plan. Uncertainty about Jeter might prompt the Yankees to go after some additional left-side-of-the-infield depth, but they would need that anyway given the Rodriguez situation. By the time the Yankees know anything certain about Jeter’s offseason progress, it’s likely to be too late to make a significant shortstop signing.

7. Is Dave Robertson an elite closer?
He’s been an very good setup man, but Robertson has rarely been tested in the ninth inning. Technically, the job of Mariano Rivera’s replacement is still wide open, and Robertson’s inexperience could certainly lead the Yankees to bring in a former closer to at least compete for the job. That said, given the number of relievers leaving the Yankees, someone with experience in the late innings would have been a sensible target regardless.

8. When can Michael Pineda contribute?
The good news is, he’s still not costing the Yankees much money, so he’s not blocking them from making an acquisition. If Pineda’s ready to be an impact pitcher again, that’s a huge boost for the rotation. If he’s not ready or able, that’s more opportunity for someone from the Phelps/Warren/Nuno group. Had Pineda proven himself this season — or even had a strong big league showing for a month or so — that might have impacted the offseason. Instead, he’s just another name in a fairly long line of potential Yankees starters.

9. How good is CC Sabathia?
Huge impact next season, very little impact this offseason. The Yankees are well aware of the importance of a front-end starter. That’s why they went after Sabathia in the first place (and then signed him to an extension). Thing is, whether Sabathia is able to bounce back or not, there doesn’t seem to be a can’t-miss ace available this winter (particularly one the Yankees have the trade pieces to acquire). A top starting pitcher would be an enticing possibility regardless of Sabathia’s down year.

10. Does Mark Teixeira still have his power?
Could hardly matter less this offseason. Whether he has the power or not, Teixeira is going to be counted on as the Yankees everyday first baseman. True, he’s coming back from wrist surgery — and that can be problematic — but the Yankees have committed to Teixiera. They’ll answer the question of his production during the season. Until then, I guess questions of Teixeira’s impact could make it slightly more likely the Yankees sign a guy like Mark Reynolds (a DH/3B who could play first as well), but that’s about it.

Associated Press photos

 
 

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77 Responses to “Spending the winter sorting through the unknown”

  1. blake November 8th, 2013 at 9:06 am

    “2. Is Alex Rodriguez going to be suspended?
    For two obvious reasons: The impact on the lineup, and the impact on the budget. The Yankees have well over $20 million dedicated to this guy next year, and they don’t know whether they’re getting a refund or a player. ”

    I think without this suspension the Yankees would have to count Arod for 33.5 million in 2014 towards the tax. 27.5 million AAV + the 6 million homer bonus that he’s very close to.

    Have to think they’d far rather have that money than the player at this point in his career….

  2. RhapsodyInBlue November 8th, 2013 at 9:12 am

    Tom, I give monthly to both the Fisher House and the Wounded Warrior program in honor of my step Dad both organizations do a lot of good things for our vets and their families.

  3. blake November 8th, 2013 at 9:16 am

    lets me optimistic and assume Alex gets suspended all of 2014. That frees up 33.5 million bucks and put their spendable money right around 80 million for 2014.

    Cano will take 25ish
    Tanaka will probably take 10-12ish in AAV
    Kuroda will probably take 15

    so that’s around 50 million…..that’d leave them 30 or so remaining to spread around and you could actually get a good deal for that…..probably at least 3 players. Salty/Ruiz/Navaro/AJP, Peralta, Kubel, Reynolds, Ryan, etc.

    I would probably try to get Granderson to take a deal in the 12 AAV range and then try to get a catcher and Peralta.

    That’d at least fill in their holes and give them a strong rotation both under the cap and keeping the draft pick.

  4. blake November 8th, 2013 at 9:21 am

    Gardner CF
    Jeter 3B/SS
    Cano 2B
    Soriano RF
    Tex 1B
    Granderson LF
    Peralta SS/3B
    Kubel DH
    Salty C

    Sabathia, Kuroda, Nova, Tanaka, Pineda

    That team could contend with some good fortune…..they would tie up long term money…..probably would be under the cap assuming Arod is gone all or most of the year…..and would allow them to keep the 15th-18th pick in the draft.

    I’d be happy with this offseason if the budget is a must……

  5. blake November 8th, 2013 at 9:24 am

    Chad has a big green egg ad on the wedsite! progress!

  6. MTU November 8th, 2013 at 9:36 am

    Blake-

    Good morning.

    I would say that the chances of A-Rod being suspended for the entire season are pretty low.

  7. MTU November 8th, 2013 at 9:38 am

    And I think that Chad has a lot of the right questions but the order of importance is off.

    IMO #1 should be 189 because most everything flows from the answer to that question.

    ;)

  8. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 9:52 am

    I was thinking about No. 6 last night actually. This is part of what we learned from Girardi’s very significant interview yesterday. Not only did we learn that the Yanks are planning on Jeter to be their full time shortstop next year, but we also learned about plan B. Girardi’s open frustration about Arod’s suspension timetable leads us to believe that the Yanks will address that problem almost immediately. And, from that we can presume that the Yanks believe that they don’t currently have on their roster even a temporary solution for 3b. Some had surmised Nunez might take that role. So what is Nunez’s role then? I guess he’s SS plan B. Welcome back Nunie!

  9. blake November 8th, 2013 at 9:54 am

    MTU,
    I think he gets 100 games or so…..and while that’ll help it won’t help that much. If he gets 100 games then the Yanks still have to count him for about 16 million on the tax……that’s better than 33 million but not nearly as good as 0.

  10. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 9:56 am

    Been saying for awhile we are looking at 50-100 games for Arod. If my calculations are right that puts the potential savings at $3 to 10MM. So 100 games would def help some, but 50 really wouldn’t help much at all.

  11. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 9:58 am

    At 100 games you would still have to account for the $6MM bonus.

  12. 86w183 November 8th, 2013 at 10:00 am

    Good morning all —-

    I guess Monday 5:00 is the next key moment in the off-season as decisions to accept/reject QOs have to be made. Not sure many players will accept, but Morales would be nuts not to and I do think Granderson has a lot to gain by putting up big numbers in NYC in 2014.

    I believe the Yanks will have a $ 2.5 M hit on Alex no matter what. IF he is suspended for the year they save his salary of $ 25 M but that’s a credit against the AAV of $ 27.5 M.

    But Blake is 100 % right. Better to have the $$$ than the player at this stage, MUCH better.

  13. joeman November 8th, 2013 at 10:06 am

    If they give Cano 8/200 they will be sorry..maybe not right away but it will happen

  14. AAA November 8th, 2013 at 10:07 am

    bigdan22:

    Regarding 3B, I’m thinking it might be a good idea to see whether Chavez may be interested in coming back. He’s made of glass and obviously can’t be an everyday guy, but he probably is good for 300 PA’s and he’s been a solid bat for 2 years running…..and he’ll be cheap.

  15. blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:11 am

    “So what is Nunez’s role then? I guess he’s SS plan B. Welcome back Nunie!”

    So we probably will have nobody on the roster that can play SS! Yay

  16. AAA November 8th, 2013 at 10:12 am

    If they give Cano 8/200 they will be sorry..maybe not right away but it will happen

    ==================================

    Sure they will, but that’s the cost of doing business when it comes to superstar players. I think Cano will work out better for them than Arod, Tex, Sabathia, but the last 1-2 years of such a deal may be kinda grim.

  17. blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:13 am

    “At 100 games you would still have to account for the $6MM bonus.”

    I did…..at 100 games they’d have to pay about 10 million in AAV from his salary and then the 6 million homer bonus that he’d almost certainly get in 62 games……they’d have to plan that he would anyway. That adds up to about 16 million for him

  18. blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:14 am

    if he gets 50 games they’ll save about 8.5 million……

  19. blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:16 am

    if Alex gets 100 games then they would have around 67 million to spend under the cap from what I can tell……

  20. joeman November 8th, 2013 at 10:16 am

    Long term contracts to 30 something year old players don’t work..track record

  21. Bret The Hitman November 8th, 2013 at 10:16 am

    The team is valued at 3 Billion. The owners earn millions annually in TV ad revenues. Profits from ticket sales, merchandising and concessions are all gravy.

    189 is bull.

  22. Bret The Hitman November 8th, 2013 at 10:17 am

    And it’s more fun to spend when you imagine no restrictions :lol:

  23. Bret The Hitman November 8th, 2013 at 10:18 am

    In the spirit of unlimited spending…

    Cano
    Choo
    Tanaka
    Jimenez
    Peralta
    Navarro
    Balfour

  24. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 10:18 am

    Irrespective on how the Yanks view 189 now, their biggest concern by far is pitching. Why? Because they currently have no number 2 or number 3 starter and they have an ace who pitched most of last year like a No. 5. And not even a very good one at that. But that’s only half the problem. I’m not sure the market has the potential solutions to that problem. Tanaka looks great on paper, but as I’ve pointed out before, what realistically are the Yanks chances of landing him. 50-50? Probably less. Moreover, it’s looking now like the posting may not take place till January. Kuroda has been awesome the last couple of seasons, but as I and recently Axisa at RAB pointed out, now would be the smart time to pass on a 39 year old pitcher who has problems pitching past August 15. Besides, what is the likelihood of him even wanting to come back? Probably less than 50-50. So then, leaving money issues aside, are there enough solutions in the marketplace to solve 2 or maybe 3 front head position holes in the Yanks’s rotation?

  25. Bret The Hitman November 8th, 2013 at 10:23 am

    CC
    Jimenez
    Nova
    Tanaka
    Pineda

    ____________

    It’s killer.

  26. pkyankfan69 November 8th, 2013 at 10:24 am

    If Spending is unlimited, I’ll take

    Cano
    Kuroda
    Tanaka
    Choo
    Beltran
    McCann
    Brian Wilson
    Balfour
    Ryan (UT)
    Reynolds (bench)
    + Sell the farm for Tulo

  27. Bret The Hitman November 8th, 2013 at 10:26 am

    See how fun that can be? :lol:

  28. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 10:34 am

    You are right Blake, I was working off a base of 27 not 33 on calculating the suspension savings. So 100 games would be about 17 and 50 would be about 8MM. That’s pretty significant. Plus you should be able to add in at least 4 of the 7 on Jeter at some point during the year when he goes on the DL and Nunie takes over :)

  29. blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:45 am

    “Plus you should be able to add in at least 4 of the 7 on Jeter at some point during the year when he goes on the DL and Nunie takes over :)

    that’s not funny. I had a dream once that Nunez threw an errant ball through the TV and hit me in the forehead.

  30. blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:48 am

    I think the Yankees need to be aware of the changing landscape in the sport even if they decide to dismiss project 189……because you can’t just go out and buy what you need or want anymore. Teams aren’t letting their best player reach free agency in their primes anymore so unless you develop a lot of what you need yourself you’re gonna end up still needing things you can’t get no matter how much money you’re willing to spend.

  31. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 10:54 am

    2013 was very expensive for the Yankees, in many ways. They took a 90-100M hit by not winning the WS, plus their farm was horribly exposed. And it cost them 260M ish to get there.

  32. JobaTipsHisCap November 8th, 2013 at 10:56 am

    1. Yes, Yanks will pay tons to keep Cano
    2. Yes, but not that long.
    4. He won’t be back
    6. Of course he can play SS, just don’t expect he plays at high level.
    7. No
    8. No
    9. same as last season, he won’t be a real ace anymore
    10. hmm, yes.

  33. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 10:59 am

    blake November 8th, 2013 at 10:48 am

    “I think the Yankees need to be aware of the changing landscape in the sport even if they decide to dismiss project 189……because you can’t just go out and buy what you need or want anymore. Teams aren’t letting their best player reach free agency in their primes anymore so unless you develop a lot of what you need yourself you’re gonna end up still needing things you can’t get no matter how much money you’re willing to spend.”

    I’ve often spoken about recognition of the changing landscape and the end of the “Dave Winfield Free Agent Era.” I’ve previously felt that 189 may be a nice little tool to get the Yanks to think more strategically. But the problem is doing 189 now would be so difficult. I’m sure they could even put on the field a respectable team. That is, a team that could win even 80 games.

    While free agent buying definitely has significant downsides, smart buying could at least make you interesting and somewhat competitive until hopefully the farm system comes around. Which is why, at present, the best way for the Yanks to approach 189 is a “stretch goal.” Something to shoot for but not actually have to achieve. If by trying to get closer to 189 you end up around 205 as opposed to 230 you are not only saving significant money on payroll but most likely making better baseball decisions along the way.

  34. 4TrainNorth November 8th, 2013 at 11:00 am

    I’m with Bret on this one. Jeter doesn’t want a farewell tour; but he will want a strong supporting cast — one that gives him one last run at a championship. It’s the least the Yankees can do. Spend, baby, spend!

  35. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:00 am

    “2013 was very expensive for the Yankees, in many ways. They took a 90-100M hit by not winning the WS, plus their farm was horribly exposed. And it cost them 260M ish to get there.”

    this is why I really don’t understand the logic in what they have been doing the last couple of years…….they compromised the team to position themselves to save this tax money but at the same time they have cost themselves more revenue than they are saving and have risked the quality of the team long term to do it.

    Dummies

  36. bigdan22 November 8th, 2013 at 11:02 am

    I meant “I’m NOT sure they could even put on the field a respectable team at 189.

  37. AAA November 8th, 2013 at 11:04 am

    They took a 90-100M hit by not winning the WS

    =======================

    That’s ridiculous. They don’t budget with the presumption of winning the WS. Seriously doubt they even budget with the presumption of making the postseason. Can’t take a hit for something not factored in.

  38. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:07 am

    It’s pretty clear that there won’t be a WS in NY in 2014 if the Yankees are committed to 189… not gonna happen. To do so, they would have to assume that A-rod is on the books for the whole year, including his 6M bonus. Only gives them 50 to fill all of the holes.

    They can’t get 2-3 SP, a closer, C, 2B, 3B, RF, insurance for Jeter/A-rod for 50.

    Once they go over the 189, they might as well get the best available at that point.

    Best guess is that they budget for about 290-300 including/tax, which gives them room for A-rod, Cano, McCann, Choo, Peralta, Tanaka, Kuroda’s replacement (Nolasco/Garza/Jiminez), Balfour, Mujica and some midseason additions, if need be.

    If A-rod is out the whole year, they save 50M. So they have spent in 2014 what they spent in 2013, but at least they are in the post season discussion. No chance otherwise.

    They don’t match up with any of the elite teams with any of their SP; gonna need at least 2, maybe 3.

  39. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:08 am

    “That’s ridiculous. They don’t budget with the presumption of winning the WS. Seriously doubt they even budget with the presumption of making the postseason. Can’t take a hit for something not factored in.”

    still counts as revenue lost…….you an’t presume to win the WS but the point is that there was major revenue lost in 2013 by missing the playoffs.

    What good does it do to save tax money if you’re losing equal or more revenue by missing the playoffs.?

    That’s why this whole thing makes no sense to do if they can’t do it and win……any savings are cancelled out by missing the postseason.

    The Yanks should put the plan on hold until they are ready to do both…..

  40. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:10 am

    AAA – blake said it.. actually, they do budget for post-season revenue.

  41. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:10 am

    The Yankees could win the WS if Arod gets suspended all season and a ton of stars align……anything is possible…….but if they stick to the budget then it’s more likely they’ll miss the playoffs again in 2014 and there is literally no way that the savings in tax money will outweigh the lost revenue from missing the postseason 2 years in a row……no way

  42. AAA November 8th, 2013 at 11:13 am

    AAA – blake said it.. actually, they do budget for post-season revenue.

    =======================

    I doubt this is true, but if it is, their accounting people are beyond moronic.

  43. tucker November 8th, 2013 at 11:14 am

    “this is why I really don’t understand the logic in what they have been doing the last couple of years…….they compromised the team to position themselves to save this tax money but at the same time they have cost themselves more revenue than they are saving and have risked the quality of the team long term to do it.”

    This tells me that Hal may not be as much of a numbers guy as he projects himself to be.

  44. AAA November 8th, 2013 at 11:16 am

    still counts as revenue lost

    ========================

    It doesn’t really, because it’s not an entitlement. Nobody guarantees it. It’s revenue not gained, but that’s not the same thing.

  45. Against All Odds November 8th, 2013 at 11:16 am

    joeman November 8th, 2013 at 10:06 am
    If they give Cano 8/200 they will be sorry..maybe not right away but it will happen

    ———————–

    If the last two or three yrs of Cano’s deal is killing the team then it shows that they still have difficulty developing talent and constructing a team.

  46. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:18 am

    AAA – not really. It’s a stated corporate goal, so of course it’s part of the what-if calculations. You don’t spend that kind of money to lose.

    blake – the problem is, the A-rod problem ties their hands until after the FA season is likely too deep to sign enough quality players to win.

  47. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:19 am

    AAO – The beauty of giving Cano a long-term deal is that when he slows down the last few years, no one will notice….

  48. austinmac November 8th, 2013 at 11:19 am

    Ichiro’s $6.5M contract really is a bad contract that limits the team. It was ridiculous then and ridiculous now.

    One fact I would love to know is the current status of season ticket sales this year compared to the last two. If it is dramatically down, we have hope they will realize they are being penny wise and pound foolish.

  49. 86w183 November 8th, 2013 at 11:23 am

    I’m not sure the $$$$aving$$ from $ 189 M are as significant as the principal.

    But I agree, it’s looking more and more penny-wise and pound-foolish.

    You guys trying to calculate the A-Rod implications need to realize this: The Yanks will be charged the entire $ 27.5 M AAV of his contract. They will be credited roughly $ 154 K per game that he is suspended.

    50 Games = $ 7.716 M in savings

    100 Games = $15.432 M in savings

    162 Games = $ 25 M in savings

    If the entire 211 was upheld the remaining 49 games would be credited based on his 2015 salary of $ 21 M, which is roughly $ 130 K per game…. thus another $ 6.35 M in savings.

  50. austinmac November 8th, 2013 at 11:23 am

    Getting under the budget and reducing luxury taxes only helps the team if they then spend in 2015 and there are upon which to spend. I think is expected to be very weak free agent class. Then, where are they? Stuck in the second division. Again.

    Not spending this year does not help the team in the future. It does the opposite.

  51. tucker November 8th, 2013 at 11:24 am

    AAA, the team most likely has revenue models for multiple scenarios.

    The bigger revenue, IMO, has been the attendance decline during regular season games. If paid attendance is down about 5k per game, that is more than 400 K fewer tickets sold over the season. And actual attendance (eyeball test) declined even more. Those are people not buying NYY steaks, sushi, hot dogs and Mo Rivera jerseys sold at stadium concession stands.

    Any way you slice it, the team has lost more in declining revenue than it will save in tax savings.

  52. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:25 am

    “It doesn’t really, because it’s not an entitlement. Nobody guarantees it. It’s revenue not gained, but that’s not the same thing.”

    when you make the playoffs every year for almost 2 decades then you should plan on it……the problem here is that the decisions they made were directly responsible for them not making it.

    Of course nothing is guaranteed but with having 2 WCs now you can build a team on paper that should at least make the playoffs if you spend enough money. They didnt’ do that last year……they spent 230 million dollars on a 1986 Camaro with red Duct tape for a tail light.

  53. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:26 am

    “blake – the problem is, the A-rod problem ties their hands until after the FA season is likely too deep to sign enough quality players to win.”

    the real hearing starts again on Nov 18th…..hopefully the arbitrator will be tired of it all and make a ruling before the winter meetings. That’s the best we can hope for

  54. austinmac November 8th, 2013 at 11:29 am

    If the team holds $33M aside for AROD, they are surrendering for the sake of the budget. That would leave them on the sidelines while the best free agents are signed.

    I ask, other than hanging onto the no. 1 pick, what benefit is there to the team on the field in this or any year by staying under the cap in 2014?

  55. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:30 am

    This is why all the ruminating and worry associated with the BUDGET was senseless and a drag on this blog and ticked so many LoHud followers off.

    Now people are just waking up to the fact that the whole thing might have been a negotiating ploy to land Cano and others in the future if and when it’s needed.

    Hal just might be smarter than all of us and it was unfair to judge him until this offseason is over.

    Innocent till proven guilty. Right?

  56. tucker November 8th, 2013 at 11:33 am

    “Now people are just waking up to the fact that the whole thing might have been a negotiating ploy to land Cano and others in the future if and when it’s needed.”

    The team has stopped spending. That’s a fact. That’s why they signed retreads like Youk to one-year contracts.

  57. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:35 am

    “I ask, other than hanging onto the no. 1 pick, what benefit is there to the team on the field in this or any year by staying under the cap in 2014?”

    if you are cheering for Hal’s bank account maybe

  58. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:35 am

    Needless to say the FA crop has been crap and continues to be so.
    Take the cream of the crap this winter and then judge.

    I take it a good sign that Cashman has been quiet…

  59. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:36 am

    “Now people are just waking up to the fact that the whole thing might have been a negotiating ploy to land Cano and others in the future if and when it’s needed.”

    what?

  60. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:37 am

    mick – Valid. I believe that the FO truly felt it could get under 189 in 2014, with reliance on the farmhands that were projected to be ready in late 2013 and 2014. Salaries would come off the books and younger, cheaper players would replace them. Nothing wrong with that model.

    However, as we all know, the farm system probably couldn’t have had a worse year than it did in 2013. The positions that it was designed to fill in at the ML level (OF, C & pitching) are not ready. Period. The IF was to be continued to be manned by Arod, Jeter, Cano and Teix. Not horrible, on paper. Oops.

    Perfect storm, so now, back to the Plan 189, 2017 version, when Teix and CC come off the books.

  61. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:37 am

    I just hope if they do decide to give away the draft pick that they make it worthwhile……go all out or don’t go in at all.

  62. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:38 am

    “Perfect storm, so now, back to the Plan 189, 2017 version, when Teix and CC come off the books.”

    there will be a new CBA that’ll probably further screw the Yankees by then though

  63. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:39 am

    Hal’s goal is to build a championship team with a much lower payroll than his Dad ever did.

    Other teams have done it.

    I believe he wants to get value for his money and is trying to change the culture.

    To some , it looks like he’s pinching pennies….but this the beginning of his plan and it might upset the fans who are used to immediate results, which we have become accustomed to, i.e. spoiled.

  64. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:41 am

    blake – If the goal is to restore the brand and win a WS, then the draft pick will be ignored. There are not FA in the right spots at the right prices to fill all the holes without signing at least one QO guy. If you sign one, you might as well stay that course.

    The reality is that the 18th pick has a roughly 20% success rate, projected out 3-5 years. Eh, not part of this equation.

  65. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:43 am

    blake – I doubt the threshold will go down. Too much money in the industry starting with the 2014 tv contract. Look at the Red Sox….even with all of their mid-level FA from last year, they are above 150M without Drew, Saltalamacchia and Ellsbury.

  66. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:46 am

    mick – There’s no crime in Hal trying to increase his bottom line. However, when the attendance goes down and there is no post-season revenue, AND the on-field product is not at a level that will maintain either, then adjustments need to be made to the plan. Hal’s no dummy…he’s already stated adjustments will be made. He gets it.

  67. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:47 am

    I just hope if they do decide to give away the draft pick that they make it worthwhile……go all out or don’t go in at all.
    ================
    If they give up the pick and get back others isn’t it a wash?

  68. austinmac November 8th, 2013 at 11:47 am

    Mick,

    I agree it is a good sign Cashman is not shooting off his mouth. I disagree the cap talk was just a ploy. Cano isn’t signing until it will be obvious whether or not they are going to spend.

    How does not spending help the team in the future with the abysmal free agent class next year and perhaps the years ahead? The only culture that may be changed is the winning one. spend.

  69. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:49 am

    wanzies
    is it just about increasing the bottom line or is it being against throwing absurd money at players?
    these ridiculous long term contracts are ruining the game.

  70. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:50 am

    “blake – If the goal is to restore the brand and win a WS, then the draft pick will be ignored. There are not FA in the right spots at the right prices to fill all the holes without signing at least one QO guy. If you sign one, you might as well stay that course.”

    here is the problem though……you can’t get younger and more efficient if you’re always giving your 1st rounders away. I mean you can but you’ll really have to have a lot of success and luck in finding those diamonds in the rough in the draft later.

    This is the best chance the Yanks have had to draft a fast moving star type player in a long time…..a lower risk guy.

    I see your point but unless they are willing to go all in this winter and sign a lot of players and blow past 189 then I think it’s counter productive to lose that pick…….they need to be able to put a real contender on the field to warrant it IMO…..and that means bringing back Cano…..signing Choo or McCann or both, signing Tanaka, and then getting a left side infielder either via trade or signing Peralta.

    If they aren’t willing to do most or all of that then they should just keep the pick and look towards 2015.

  71. blake November 8th, 2013 at 11:52 am

    “blake – I doubt the threshold will go down. Too much money in the industry starting with the 2014 tv contract. Look at the Red Sox….even with all of their mid-level FA from last year, they are above 150M without Drew, Saltalamacchia and Ellsbury”

    the threshold may not go down no (it actually went up in the last CBA too) but the penalties increased a lot. So my guess is the penalties for going over may even further increase in the next CBA…….it virutally never gets better for the Yankees……

  72. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:53 am

    There are less and less quality FA’s out there each season.
    Teams are locking them up with extensions.
    The more teams spend on crap does not guarantee them success.
    I just think Hal is trying to find guys who want to play here for a fair price, not an overpay .

  73. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:55 am

    I disagree the cap talk was just a ploy.
    ===========
    Mac

    Aren’t you the one that is always preaching innocent till guilty?
    Let’s see what transpires this winter and then judge the man.

  74. wanzies222 November 8th, 2013 at 11:56 am

    blake – Yankees were losers in 2013, which was not part of the plan. As stated, losing is very, very expensive for them, moreso for the Yankees than any other team because of the size of their investment. I believe in getting under 189 and not subsidizing other teams; problem is, the timing didn’t work. When plans don’t work, they need to be adjusted. Pushing out the timeline to 2017 is expensive, but not as expensive as NOT winning.

  75. mick November 8th, 2013 at 11:57 am

    Blake,,,,,,,What number pick do we get back for Grandy?
    Aren’t there enough FA’s out there where we don’t have to give up a pick?

  76. mick November 8th, 2013 at 12:02 pm

    Yankees were losers in 2013, which was not part of the plan
    ===========================
    They are in transition and making the playoffs was what they hoped for and had a realistic shot at before the injuries.
    Tex and Grandy would have given them a legit shot at it.
    Who was going to replace Jeter and Arod…nobody.
    Even without them they could have made it.
    Nobody biotched and moaned about Youk when he was signed either…was it the wrong move?
    who else was out there, did you think he would also be out for the season?

  77. pete2 November 8th, 2013 at 8:51 pm

    So tired of hearing they have to wait on Arod. Companies deal with uncertainties all the time. You make your best forecast and make decisions based on these forecasts. You also have backup plans to address the uncertainty. You almost never can postpone decisions until you have certainty. Things move way too fast for this kind of strategy to pay off. Yankees have to go hard after the best free agents that fill their holes during the next 4-6 weeks. After this the pickings are slim.

    Arod probably does not get suspended the entire year, but forecasting a suspension of 65-100 games for budgetary purposes is reasonable.

    For Cano, you give him a deadline after making your best offer. Preferably he is in or out by Dec 1.

    Anyways, if the Yankees FO still thinks it can field a championship caliber team at a payroll of 178 million + benefits, regardless of what happens to Arod, they are nuts. Its not about fielding an opening day roster and saying if all of these guys stay healthy and have career years we can compete. You know you will have injuries and players will underperform, so you have to have depth as well as well as a budget that allows you to make trades at mid season without much in the way of prospects, which means you must acquire additional salary to fill any holes that develop.

    The odds of Jeter staying healthy at SS at age 40 after a lost season are low. The odds Ichiro and Wells will be more than a replacement level player are low.
    The odds Teixeira can reverse his decline after a lost season is low.
    The odds their existing backstops can be league average is low
    The odds CC with a balky elbow and knee can return to 2009-2011 levels is low.
    The odds Pineda can be a #1-#2 are low
    The odds anyone in the farm system or that Phelps or Warren can be a #1-#3 starter are low

    Granderson, Cano, Kuroda may all be gone. Rivera, Hughes and Pettitte are gone.

    The only certainty for above average play is a decent bullpen, with uncertainty at closer, and Gardner.

    Too much work to do to wait on Arod and Cano.


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