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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Five Yankees unknowns more important than second base

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Dec 16, 2013 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

The Yankees have the ability — if they can find someone to sign or find a trade partner — to actively address their hole at second base. Same for their uncertainty at third base, their need for additional rotation depth, and their lack of experience in the bullpen. The Yankees have a few months left to do something about those situations, which is the reason we write about them and talk about them all the time.

But these five uncertainties might be more important for 2014 success, and there’s very little the Yankees can do about them.

CC Sabathia1. No. 1 starter
The Yankees aren’t going to get anyone to replace CC Sabathia. They’re having a hard enough time upgrading on their No. 4 starter, so upgrading their ace seems next to impossible (unless Masahiro Tanaka proves to be as good as Yu Darvish). Sabathia’s transition into his mid-30s — not to mention his health — is perhaps the Yankees most important pitching development of 2014.

2. First base
Three more years of Mark Teixeira. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, if only because the farm system doesn’t have a replacement any higher than Single-A, but the Yankees need Teixeira to be more than a good glove. He might not hit for average any more, but the Yankees can still get offensive production from him if he’s able to work the count and hit 30-plus home runs. Strength in that surgically repaired wrist is a must.

3. Shortstop (or whatever position Derek Jeter is playing)
The Yankees have proactively signed some shortstop depth, but Jeter is still a big part of 2014. It was only two years ago that he led the league in hits. The Jeter we’re used to seeing would be a right-handed table setter who fits nicely with lefties Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner. But can he still hit? Can he remotely play shortstop? If he can’t, the problem goes beyond the no-offense approach of his replacement. Figuring out what to do with Jeter could be a total mess.

4. Closer
Repeat after me: Dave Robertson is not Mariano Rivera. And a pitcher doesn’t have to be Mariano Rivera to be a good closer. That said, comparisons to Rivera are inevitable for whoever steps into the ninth inning for the Yankees, and right now Robertson has no serious challenger for that role. His WHIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio were the best of his career last season. Will that change with a game on the line? I’m not sure there’s a free agent reliever out there who’s a no-doubt upgrade.

5. Third base
Not in the way that we usually talk about — finding a replacement for A-Rod — but in this way: What if Rodriguez is allowed to play? Or what if he gets only a 50-game suspension? Is there a greater wild card, in every way possible, in all of baseball? Rodriguez’s suspension is completely out of the Yankees hands, and if he’s back, the Yankees are either stuck with him or forced to release him and pay the bill.

Associated Press photo

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328 Responses to “Five Yankees unknowns more important than second base”

  1. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 12:12 pm

    At this point, I’m ok with CC, Kuroda, and Nova as our top 3.
    Phelps, Nuno, Warren and Pineda can battle it out for a slot, or even two.

    But for insurance, I’d offer Johan Santana an invite to ST or even sign him to a 1 year deal, similar to Kazmir’s signing last year by the Indians. Or, I’d even go so far as to offer AJ a 2-year deal. Either way, we need another lefty starter, and Cashan loves return engagements.

    As far as the pen is concerned, there’s enough left on the market to sign 2 arms, a lefty and a setup/closer (my choice is Veras).

    The infield situation is what it is. Incomplete.

  2. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:18 pm

    “My entire point is that if Phelps had a longer track record they wouldn’t be signing anyone, so instead of signing someone they might end up just giving David Phelps the chance to establish a track record. ”

    well yea but he hasn’t and that’s the problem…..it’s a pretty big leap to just assume David Phelps can throw 200 innings with a sub 4 era. That’s like saying lets just trade Gardner and bring up Heathcott and let him establish a track record because he “could” be just as good.

  3. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    I’m not pushing the signing of Garza or Santana really because they will be overpaid most likely…..but they would both improve the rotation and if that’s the goal then they need to consider it if they can’t get Tanaka.

    If Tanaka is going to cost 6/100 or something plus the 20 posting fee then which is a better and safter plan…..that or Garza at say 5/85?

    I’m not sure….you know a lot more what you’re getting with Garza even if it’s not an ace but more like a very solid #3.

  4. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 12:21 pm

    chicken_stanley December 16th, 2013 at 12:17 pm
    Good day, guys.

    I’m working from home this week and my internet is down so I’m at the local McDonalds using their wifi. I’ve been here since 8am… I’m starting to get dirty looks. I think I’ll stay for a few more hours to see if I can succeed in getting tossed from Mickey D’s :)
    ———————–
    Careful Chicken, Mickey D’s will either kick you out or make you work the kitchen if you hang out long enough. I shouldn’t talk, I’m in the Jeep service lounge with my laptop and jacket on, and people are asking me for information like I work here!

  5. Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:22 pm

    It’s kind of scary that there are so many major questions BEYOND the holes that still exist in the roster. The 2014 Yankees are going to have a lot of variance, they could be very good and they could be pretty terrible.

  6. Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:23 pm

    If Tanaka is going to cost 6/100 or something plus the 20 posting fee then which is a better and safter plan…..that or Garza at say 5/85?

    Depends what the scouts say since that’s a major factor in international players but from my point of view, Tanaka. Garza has health issues and at best he’s a #3. Tanaka is 5 years younger and has bigger upside.

  7. Howler December 16th, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    I’ve always been a fan of Phelps, but I don’t think the Yankees feel comfortable leaving him alone as being a starter and seeing what they get from him. I don’t like him in long or any relief spot because he seems to have difficulty in the first inning when he comes in.
    I think he’d be a very serviceable back of the rotation starter for any team.

  8. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:24 pm

    “5 seasons ago, he had an ERA above 5. I’ve said this before, but you can’t just isolate samples that fit your narrative. Why is 4 seasons ago so much more predictive than 5 seasons ago?”

    because players change. Robinson Cano has a career OPS+ of 124…..does that better describe him or does the 141 OPS+ he’s been over the last 4 seasons better decscribe what he is now?

    Sometimes a select window does better represent the player than the entire sample……especially the the player got better.

    I chose the last 4 years for Santana because it looks like he turned a corner there at age 27….he’s been more consistent over the last 4 years than he was earlier in his career.

  9. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 12:25 pm

    Tanaka is the prize. Everything else is a Band-Aid.

  10. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    “Depends what the scouts say since that’s a major factor in international players but from my point of view, Tanaka. Garza has health issues and at best he’s a #3. Tanaka is 5 years younger and has bigger upside.”

    well that’s why I want Tanaka too….but my point was that I’m not sure it makes sense to be all in on Tanaka and all out on everybody else…..because they still need another solid starter IMO

  11. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 12:26 pm

    Patrick – I think CC is better than last year but that his best seasons are now behind him. I think Kuroda will be solid and will deliver a similar season to last year when all is said and done.. but he will probably miss a couple of starts.

    Pineda worries me the most because the Yankees have been reporting he looks great. They talk about where his velo has topped out but his average velo was way down and they would only let him pitch 40 innings before shutting him down. I think 2011 was the most Pineda had ever pitched in his career… it’s not encouraging. He’s supposed to be a power arm and will probably have to overhaul his repertoire to be effective (which some thought was already lacking when he arrived). There’s a lot of development to still be done with him.. and leaving that in the hands of the Yankees is rough.

  12. chicken_stanley December 16th, 2013 at 12:29 pm

    DaSaint – I’ve already had breakfast and lunch here – now I’m shooting for dinner. I figure I can kill 2 birds with one stone… get my work done and begin research for a sequel to “Super Size Me” :)

  13. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 12:31 pm

    DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 12:25 pm

    Tanaka is the prize. Everything else is a Band-Aid.

    ————–

    Problem is a lot of teams view him as such… I think teams go 7 years for him. Do the Yankees?

    The Rangers make the most sense because they have a ton of money dropping off the books in the next year or two. Their core could be Tanaka, Andrus and Fielder.. if they can retain Darvish, all the better.

    The M’s would go to a crazy number of years, IMO. Felix and Tanaka could be a great #1 and #2 and they have young, cheap arms to balance the cost.

    Then you have a few other teams that could be ready to blow it up for Tanaka: Cubs, LA, Tigers, O’s, Mets, Angels….

  14. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:35 pm

    I wouldn’t be shocked if the Yankees take a flier on Brian Roberts…
    We need a 2B, he is a FA and won’t need much money because of his injury history.

  15. pkyankfan69 December 16th, 2013 at 12:35 pm

    If Tanaka does get posted, going after him is a no brainer. The potential is there and he’ll only be 25 to start next year… 25 year olds with that sort of potential are simply never available in FA… If he isn’t posted I don’t like the idea of giving 5 years – $85M+ to any of Garza(30)/Santana(31)/Ubaldo(30)…. Garza is solid but nothing special… Ubaldo and Santana have both been wildly inconsistent.

    If we lose Tanaka I’d begrudgingly go the dumpster diving method as opposed to giving a big contract to one of the “big 3″ remaining MLB FA’s.

    Too bad Hudson signed so early… 2 years – $23M could be the best value deal of the offseason.

  16. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    i still dont think anyone would sign johan till he throws for them to see. it doesnt make sense for him or the signing team.

    i expect johan to wait till he’s ready to throw, then throw in front of gm’s and scouts down in fla. and get a nice incentive laden contract.

    kazmir was already throwing in the 90′s in PR when the indians signed him.

  17. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:37 pm

    Too bad Hudson signed so early… 2 years – $23M could be the best value deal of the offseason.
    __

    Dan Heren too…

  18. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    “he hasn’t had a 4 ERA ever….the money is an issue maybe but hard to support that he’s not better than what they have.”

    He’s been at 3.8 and 3.9 the last two seasons. You’re really splitting hairs here. That is an ERA of 4 for all intents and purposes. It rounds to? 4. If you really are going out of your way to point out that his ERAs have been 3.91 and 3.95 rather than 4… it’s probably a sign that your argument is extremely weak. It’s not like I took a 3.51 ERA and rounded to 4.

    “in the last 4 seasons Santana has had 3 sub 4 era seasons and one 5 era season. And in 2012 all his peripherals were basically the same….his homer rate just doubled that year for some reason.”

    He’s always been homer prone and is a questionable fit for YS. Over the past 4 seasons he’s #16 in most HR/9 among qualifiers. That’s #16 out of 178.

    5 seasons ago, he had an ERA above 5. I’ve said this before, but you can’t just isolate samples that fit your narrative. Why is 4 seasons ago so much more predictive than 5 seasons ago?

  19. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    I sort of see the logic of considering Garza now given that you are willing to go all in on Tanaka (and we really don’t know that the Yanks will be all in do we). I think Tanaka will cost around $120MM and if you are willing to pay that then logic demands you consider alternatives. But I guess the way I look at it is, you are going to pay up for either Garza or Tanaka. And if you are going to do that, pay up for the guy with the higher ceiling. The one who can be a one.

    About the other guys, Phelps, Warren, Nuno and Pineda, I’m on the record of saying last May that I thought Nuno was the Yanks fourth best pitcher then. I think he’s an average ML pitcher right now. Sometimes you just have to trust scouting. Look how that worked out with the Dodgers and Puig.

    What can’t happen is another Quintana. That was the Yanks’ worst player development decision in recent memory.

  20. I am Brett Godner December 16th, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    “I chose the last 4 years for Santana because it looks like he turned a corner there at age 27….he’s been more consistent over the last 4 years than he was earlier in his career.”

    I’d be on board with Santana being the safest of the bunch but he is still a pretty extreme fly all pitcher which especially as a righty doesn’t sit well with me at the stadium.

  21. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:38 pm

    If they do get Tanaka i certainly hope he is actually good….if he busts they may never sign anybody from another country ever again

  22. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    “5 seasons ago, he had an ERA above 5. I’ve said this before, but you can’t just isolate samples that fit your narrative. Why is 4 seasons ago so much more predictive than 5 seasons ago?”

    I answered this above….because players change

  23. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    “I agree that if Phelps had Garza’s track record he wouldn’t be such a concern. The problem is he doesn’t, and has had arm issues only last year. He is a possible decent fifth starter. He is no more than that.”

    I don’t know what you think I said, but I never said that he has a track record. I never said he’s as good a bet as Garza. What I said is that he’s performed just as well as Garza in the sample we have, which is not a completely insignificant sample. That it is questionable to pay an extra $15 million and lock yourself into a long-term deal on a guy with rumored arm problems who isn’t a clear upgrade over what you have. The equation is not Phelps vs. Garza. It’s Phelps, everyone competing with him, and the flexibility to use ~$15 mill per to replace him vs. Garza.

    He’s never going to get a track record unless he pitches. He missed part of one season. “Arm issues” is an exaggeration. Garza’s struggles late this season were also rumored to be because of “arm issues.”

    And above you were nitpicking the hell out of me by knocking the guys I said had some sort of chance to make the rotation after listing 5 guys with a better chance. Give me a freaking break. You can find the negative in anything if that’s all you’re looking for. It’s actually insulting to have someone take examples #6-8 you provide, ignore #1-5, and then pretend like your point was about #6-8.

    “Garza has much better velocity and other stuff than Phelps. They both throw right handed. There is that similarity.”

    The results are similar. I don’t care how they get there.

  24. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:39 pm

    Sometimes players really do turn corners in their careers….Cano is a good example of this

  25. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 12:40 pm

    “Problem is a lot of teams view him as such… I think teams go 7 years for him. Do the Yankees?”

    ________

    If I’m Tanaka, I’d want 5 or 10. Five years sets me up for an even bigger pay day when I’m 30. Ten gives me security for life.

  26. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    ac agreed on hudson, he would have fit in perfectly imo.

    dont know if he wanted to come to ny though.

  27. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:41 pm

    Tanaka is very risky himself…..just because Darvish and Kuroda made the adjustments doesn’t mean he will. Doesn’t mean you avoid signing him….but there is no guarantee he comes over here and is awesome either…..for every Darvish there has been a dice K

  28. Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:42 pm

    I too would prefer Phelps over Garza, simply due to the money. Garza would be a safer choice and more likely to pitch at a higher level. But I don’t think he would be much better than Phelps. Certainly not enough to justify the money Garza will get.

    Given the choice between Phelps and Jimenez I pick Jimenez because I think there is much more upside.

  29. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 12:43 pm

    for every Darvish there has been a dice K

    __________

    also Kei Igawa, Hideki Irabu.

    For the hardline Tanaka folks, has anyone watched him pitch in more than just a clip?

    Also, if you are for all this blind money to Tanaka, were you also for the Arod, Tex, and/or Cano contracts?

  30. brianlopez22 December 16th, 2013 at 12:43 pm

    Ted,

    respectfully disagree.
    In the AL East, you need swing and miss stuff.
    Look at Ian Kennedy. Great off-speed stuff but got ripped in the AL East because he’s a contact pitcher. If you can’t put a guy away in this division, you can’t succeed in this division.

    I agree Phelps gets the same results differently, but Garza has swing and miss stuff. I wouldn’t give Garza 4 years, let alone 5 – 7 years.
    But if we could get Garza for 3 or 4(reluctantly), it may be a worthy investment.

  31. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    Problem with Jimenez is that he has had two great halves in his career and the rest has been underwhelming.

  32. coney1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    Andrew Marchand ?@AndrewMarchand 9m

    Just wrote a post on how I could see the Yanks going into ST with Dean Anna and Brian Roberts at second. Look for it it in a bit.
    ————————-
    This is a nightmare. Looks like the McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran additions were just to shut the fanbase up and give them a few new toys to keep their attention span off the fact that the front office has ZERO intention of actually compiling an entire competitive team. Doesn’t look like they have any plans to add a true 2b, SP or legitimate relief corps. They are going to bottom feed from here on out to save their precious budget.

  33. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 12:44 pm

    “I answered this above….because players change”

    That is not an answer. Again, you can’t just arbitrarily decide when they’ve changed and when they haven’t to fit a narrative you’ve already constructed. This is a huge abuse of statistics. I’ll ask again, why is Santana’s 2010 more predictive of his 2014 season than his 2009 season? Why than his 2012 season? Did he change before 2012 and then again after?

    Do you know what Santana’s average fWAR is the past 5 seasons? 1.5. What reason do you have to believe he will be significantly better the next 5 seasons than the last 5? Are you paying $15 mill per for 1.5 WAR?
    What WAR do you project for Phelps? Pineda? Warren?

  34. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:45 pm

    This is a nightmare. Looks like the McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran additions were just to shut the fanbase up and give them a few new toys to keep their attention span off the fact that the front office has ZERO intention of actually compiling an entire competitive team. Doesn’t look like they have any plans to add a true 2b, SP or legitimate relief corps. They are going to bottom feed from here on out to save their precious budget.

    ___

    Dude get off the bridge……
    One tweet from a writer who basically made a suggestion with no evidence it was the way they would go and you flip out.
    Relax

  35. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 12:46 pm

    “This is a nightmare. Looks like the McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran additions were just to shut the fanbase up and give them a few new toys to keep their attention span off the fact that the front office has ZERO intention of actually compiling an entire competitive team.”

    Andrew Marchard is a mainstream media writer for a website known for having maybe the worst analysis out there. The article you reference is his own speculation. It provides no evidence at all to support your point. Your point may or may not be right, but you haven’t actually supported it in any way with evidence.

  36. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:47 pm

    “I too would prefer Phelps over Garza, simply due to the money. Garza would be a safer choice and more likely to pitch at a higher level. But I don’t think he would be much better than Phelps. ”

    Why? I mean everything has it’s value….is Ellsbury 150 million better than Gardner? Lots of
    Players make a lot of money….It just depends on the yanks mindset.

    I will say I think the rotation is a lot deeper with Garza AND phelps in it than Phelps and other

  37. Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    Andrew Marchand ?@AndrewMarchand 5m
    Not sure Kelly Johnson can field well enough to trot out their every day. He can hit, though.

    Sure he can hit, can he hit well? .253/.335/.427 Not exactly. Marchand should probably stick to reporting the news, his opinion is garbage

  38. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    “That is not an answer. Again, you can’t just arbitrarily decide when they’ve changed and when they haven’t to fit a narrative you’ve already constructed. This is a huge abuse of statistics. I’ll ask again, why is Santana’s 2010 more predictive of his 2014 season than his 2009 season? Why than his 2012 season? Did he change before 2012 and then again after?”

    I didn’t arbitrarily look….I looked at the numbers and saw the beginning of what looks like a possible trend of being better. From 2010 to 2013…2012 looks like an outlier season where a lot of balls left the park for him…..the rest of his peripherals have been pretty constant over that time frame

  39. YankeeRay December 16th, 2013 at 12:50 pm

    On a side note of a potentially meaningless information category, my company does business with a company by the name of injex 21 in south florida which is a needleless injection company for people with diabetes. It is owned by Sammy Sosa. Today Arod was in the building to meet with Sosa. Go ahead and speculate all you want lol.

  40. Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    Why? I mean everything has it’s value….is Ellsbury 150 million better than Gardner? Lots of
    Players make a lot of money….It just depends on the yanks mindset.

    No Ellsbury is not 150 million better than Gardner, but I wouldn’t have signed him to that deal either.

    The Yankees, even without 189 have a budget and I don’t think it’s a smart use of that budget to spend on Garza. He’s marginally better than in-house options, really not worth paying a premium for.

  41. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:51 pm

    We need sinker ball pitchers.

  42. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 12:52 pm

    “Ted,

    respectfully disagree.
    In the AL East, you need swing and miss stuff.
    Look at Ian Kennedy. Great off-speed stuff but got ripped in the AL East because he’s a contact pitcher. ”

    Seriously? What division has David Phelps pitched in the past two seasons? The NL West?
    What division did Garza P in when we consistently put up an ERA of 4 year after year? (And that was Ping half the time in one of the most P friendly parks in baseball.)

    Phelps has averaged like 1.7 more K/9 than Kuroda the past two seasons. How is Kuroda doing in the AL East?

    Ian Kennedy got 60 IP for the Yankees spread across 3 seasons. He also just bombed out in the NL West.

    With all due respect, you are miles away from beginning to prove the point you are making. I’ll give you a little hint. You will never manage to prove that point, because it’s an old wives tale with little basis in reality.

  43. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:53 pm

    I can’t believe I’ve gotten myself into an argument on the merits if Ervin Santana. Just sign Tanaka

  44. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 12:54 pm

    In fact, while it’s not a perfect stat by any stretch, Phelps has a HIGHER K/9 the past two seasons that Garza.

  45. Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:54 pm

    I can’t believe I’ve gotten myself into an argument on the merits if Ervin Santana. Just sign Tanaka

    Word.

  46. pkyankfan69 December 16th, 2013 at 12:55 pm

    Cash should already be on the phone with the Brewers GM laying the ground work for the Aramis Ramirez trade so they can pull the trigger right after Arod gets suspended for all (or most) of this season… Aram lurking in the 6/7 spot in the Yanks line up would be a nice weapon… He’s on the older side but still hits for a high AVG, high OBP, nice power, and (relatively) low amount of K’s. He would be a tremendous addition and they could probably get him on the cheap in terms of prospects if they took most of his money.

  47. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:56 pm

    ac1 says:
    December 16, 2013 at 12:51 pm
    We need sinker ball pitchers.

    With our current infield D that would be death by the ground ball single

  48. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 12:56 pm

    bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 12:40 pm

    “Problem is a lot of teams view him as such… I think teams go 7 years for him. Do the Yankees?”

    ________

    If I’m Tanaka, I’d want 5 or 10. Five years sets me up for an even bigger pay day when I’m 30. Ten gives me security for life.

    ————————

    Could a team go ten…..? I think the Mariners would because they do crazy things.

  49. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 12:58 pm

    With our current infield D that would be death by the ground ball single

    __

    True :(

  50. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 12:58 pm

    just sayin…

    kelley johnson’s .762 career OPS would have been 7th among qualifying 2b men last season.

  51. I am Brett Godner December 16th, 2013 at 12:59 pm

    “I can’t believe I’ve gotten myself into an argument on the merits if Ervin Santana. Just sign Tanaka”

    Funny what clear holes in the team and a thin market gets one to think. Hell I was disappointed this weekend when Ellis came off the market. Seriously when else would you catch yourself giving a damn about Mark Ellis?

  52. blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:59 pm

    Or death by Nunie throwing balls into the stands

  53. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 12:59 pm

    Patrick December 16th, 2013 at 12:48 pm
    Andrew Marchand ?@AndrewMarchand 5m
    Not sure Kelly Johnson can field well enough to trot out their every day. He can hit, though.

    Sure he can hit, can he hit well? .253/.335/.427 Not exactly. Marchand should probably stick to reporting the news, his opinion is garbage

    ——–

    It’s actually quite a bit worse than that. The last three years his BA is .222, .225 and .235. In 2012 he struck out 159 times. In 2013 he struck out 99, each year more than 2.5 times his walks. He does have some power though if you like the big hairy monster. He’s actually a little hairy monster.

  54. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    ‘one dumb owner’ is likely to keep tanaka out of ny even if he posts.

  55. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:00 pm

    “I didn’t arbitrarily look….I looked at the numbers and saw the beginning of what looks like a possible trend of being better. From 2010 to 2013…2012 looks like an outlier season where a lot of balls left the park for him…..the rest of his peripherals have been pretty constant over that time frame”

    Again, this is not how statistics works and it is by definition completely arbitrary. What changed from 2009 to 2010 that makes you believe Santana is a better P post-2010 than pre-2010? There are actually some changes you could point to (threw FB more, change less for example), but your explanation has nothing to do with them. Looking at numbers and guessing at what looks like a trend is by definition arbitrary.

    The answer, at least in terms of the reasoning you’re describing, is that there is nothing at all that makes 2010 more predictive than 2009 (and his ERA was almost 4 in 2010 anyway). Perhaps there is, but you haven’t even tried to find it yet.

  56. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 1:01 pm

    I think the Tanaka bidding war could be epic… historical even. From Cano’s presser we found out there were actually 3 teams in on him.. so there’s a mystery team out there that might have $150+ million just waiting to be spent.

  57. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:01 pm

    I like Phelps….I compared him to Mike Mussina lite 3 years ago when I saw him pitch for Scranton….but I think we are overstating how likely it is that he actually becomes anything but a fringe back end starter and Id certainly feel a lot better about things if he were the 5th starter instead of the 3rd or 4th

  58. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    “It’s actually quite a bit worse than that. The last three years his BA is .222, .225 and .235. In 2012 he struck out 159 times. In 2013 he struck out 99, each year more than 2.5 times his walks. He does have some power though if you like the big hairy monster. He’s actually a little hairy monster.”

    What was his overall offensive production relative to his position?

  59. austinmac December 16th, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    Has Phelps ever pitched into the 7th inning of any start? Comparing his expected performance to someone who has actually thrown 200 innings several times is ultimate fandom. Phelps fastball average 93.1 last year to Phelps 89.9. They are not remotely comparable.

  60. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    Wow Chad… I disagree with almost every point your make in this article.

    1. CC has to be CC, not whatever he was last year. Some reports of lingering pain make me believe last year was just a blip.

    2. Yes. Teixeira needs to be healthy. He has been worth 4.9, 3.2, and 4.0 WAR when healthy. This is not a real concern.

    3. Jeter broke his foot, he didn’t get muscular dystrophy. Wondering aloud if he can still “play shortstop” when he is no longer injured is just silly.

    4.”Repeat after me: Dave Robertson is not Mariano Rivera.” No CHad, you repeat after me… No one is Mariano Rivera. No one ever will be Mariano Rivera, and if that is what you are trying to replace, you are wasting your time. Robertson has plenty good stuff to be a closer, and I’ve never seen him rattled out there. To call it an “unknown” is just wrong, we know who and what he is on the mound and unless they overpay someone else.. he is almost certainly going to be the closer… and an effective one at that.

    5. I don’t buy the posturing by A-Rods camp in the slightest. He is almost certainly going to be suspended, more than likely for the entire season. If he doesn’t get suspended sure, they’ve blown the payroll budget… but they get their 3B back so who cares? This is why they won’t make a splash here for a heavily paid 2B OR 3B and we are going to end up with Mark Reynolds out there for like $2mil. Healthy A-Rod (first half before his injury) last season was more than productive enough and not something to be feared returning to the team.

  61. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 12:58 pm
    just sayin…

    kelley johnson’s .762 career OPS would have been 7th among qualifying 2b men last season

    ________

    The problem with OPS is it treats OBP and slugging as virtually equal and doesn’t weigh BA at all. I’m with Bill James. High average players are being under-valued now. Give me some guys who can hit .300 and get on base .365 or better and I’ll show you a line-up than can score and score in the playoffs. Gimme Bernie and Paulie.

  62. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 1:04 pm

    I like Phelps….I compared him to Mike Mussina lite 3 years ago when I saw him pitch for Scranton….but I think we are overstating how likely it is that he actually becomes anything but a fringe back end starter and Id certainly feel a lot better about things if he were the 5th starter instead of the 3rd or 4th

    ___

    Yankees will never give him the chance to become Mussina.
    They are just going to move him back and forth between the rotation and the pen and then act like they had nothing to do with his failure even though they haven’t developed a star pitcher since Andy Pettitte. Nova seems to be the only one remotely close.

  63. dan l December 16th, 2013 at 1:04 pm

    Aramis Ramirez costs 20 million with the buyout…pass

  64. chicken_stanley December 16th, 2013 at 1:04 pm

    I used to really enjoy Brian Kenney on Baseball Tonight several years ago. Somewhere along the line, he became a statistical convert (which in and of itself is ok – advanced stats are very interesting and useful in many cases). The problem is he now seems to consider himself invariably correct with no room for argument… Those who use visual cues or dare to inject opinions that aren’t based exclusively on data are by default wrong.

    Baseball has more valid advanced statistics available than any other sport but there is still room for old fashioned talent evaluation as well. I’m not saying that any of us are skilled talent evaluators (although there are folks like Pat M. whose take I may not agree with but always respect) but a statement based on pure opinion is not automatically wrong. Just my OPINION :)

  65. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:07 pm

    Again, this is not how statistics works and it is by definition completely arbitrary. ”

    I’m not a slave to statistics….I look at them but at some point you have to draw your own conclusions from them and what you see.

    But to answer your question….if you look at his career….his h/9 stabilized under 9 after 2010, his whip has trended downward over those 4 years rather than bouncing up above 1.4 etc.

    Now these seen definitive conclusions but he’s been more consistent in his recent history than he was earlier in his career

  66. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:08 pm

    Brian Kenny has had to argue statistics against Harold Reynolds for the last year… who is quite possibly the dumbest person on television. I could totally understand if that has made him seem a little… blunt.

  67. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    I’m not even sayin Id sign Santana ….he would be my 3rd choice among the available starters.

  68. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:09 pm

    johnson’s .715 OPS for last season would have put him 14th among qualifying 2b, right behind dozier and scutaro and ahead of phillips.

    hes not listed as 2b because his primary position last season was OF

  69. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 1:10 pm

    “Baseball has more valid advanced statistics available than any other sport but there is still room for old fashioned talent evaluation as well. I’m not saying that any of us are skilled talent evaluators (although there are folks like Pat M. whose take I may not agree with but always respect) but a statement based on pure opinion is not automatically wrong. Just my OPINION ”

    ——-

    Statistics and advanced metrics are great. It’s the people who use them that can be the problem. They are tools, but not substitutes for good scouting and insight. I pointed this out last night, using ML projections for non-roster, non-prospect minor leaguers is just silly. Smart decision-makers ignore that kind of noise. Problem is the background radiation keeps growing.

  70. pkyankfan69 December 16th, 2013 at 1:11 pm

    dan l December 16th, 2013 at 1:04 pm
    Aramis Ramirez costs 20 million with the buyout…pass
    ——————-
    Youk 2012 – .235/.336/.409/.745 — 122 games

    We paid him 13 M the year after that lousy season

    Aram last year – .283/.370/.461/.831 – 92 games (OPS’d .879 and .900 2 previous years in 149 games respectively)

    The Brewers would eat some of the $20M… If we were willing to risk $13M on a breaking down Youk, we should definitely spend a similar amount plus a marginal prospect or 2 to get a player that is actually still good.

  71. chicken_stanley December 16th, 2013 at 1:12 pm

    I could totally understand if that has made him seem a little… blunt.

    —————–

    lol! I didn’t even think of the Harold Reynolds angle.

  72. pkyankfan69 December 16th, 2013 at 1:13 pm

    Nunez + Turley for Aram + $8M

  73. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:14 pm

    i think kenney has one eye on what he’s going to do when he leaves espn. being a good announcer isnt enough to make the big bucks on radio. you need some edginess.

  74. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:15 pm

    bogdan – “Smart decision-makers ignore that kind of noise.”

    No, smart decision makers ignore nothing.

    I see the problem as the people who think that scouting, insight, and statistical analysis as independent of one another.

    Pretending that “insight” and “scouting” is anything more than looking at observations analytically is really missing the forest for the trees.

  75. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:15 pm

    i like aramis if he’s healthy.

  76. PacoDooley December 16th, 2013 at 1:16 pm

    I don’t understand why ‘closer’ ends up in these discussions – there is no way that the closer is more important than the unknown at 2B. Closers are overvalued and whoever ends up closing will not amount to a lot of WAR or have that big an impact on the game.

  77. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:16 pm

    I want skinny kung fu panda

  78. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:17 pm

    i like the panda, too.

    what’s his weight today?

  79. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:17 pm

    PacoDooley – You could certainly make the arguement that a large percentage of Mariano’s appearances were wasted on games they probably would have won anyway.

  80. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:19 pm

    “I like Phelps….I compared him to Mike Mussina lite 3 years ago when I saw him pitch for Scranton….but I think we are overstating how likely it is that he actually becomes anything but a fringe back end starter and Id certainly feel a lot better about things if he were the 5th starter instead of the 3rd or 4th”

    He’s pretty clearly the 4th or 5th SP right now. Saying he may be the 3rd is not helpful to the conversation. It is dishonest and only acts as an irritant. It dissolves trust. CC, Kuroda, and Nova have publicly been called rotation locks and it’s been publicly stated that they’d like to have Phelps compete for the 5th starter spot if they can add another SP.

    What is a “fringe back-end SP” in your opinion? To me Phelps is already at least that. Of Ps with at least 150 IP the past two seasons, he’s #136 in fWAR. That includes some RPs and his IP are split between rotation and pen, but there are 150 rotation spots in MLB.

    I think that as a Yankee fan you are overestimating how many good SPs there are out there. What a Yankees fan considers a back-end guy is likely actually a mid-rotation SP relative to the rest of the league.

    I think that Phelps’ most likely case given his early success it to be a strong back-end SP. That he has a very solid chance to be a mid-rotation SP. That he also has a very solid chance of burning out even if he stays healthy.

    “I will say I think the rotation is a lot deeper with Garza AND phelps in it than Phelps and other”

    You don’t know what “other” is though. Other could be a fully healthy Pineda. It could be a trade for Justin Masterson if the Indians call 10 games back in May. It could be a FA next year. It could be Manny Banuelos at mid-season. The point is that other could, in fact, be a lot better than Garza.

    As I said to someone else earlier, you have to consider the opportunity cost of spending all that money on Garza.

    Anyway… Who knows what they’ll do? Maybe they’ll sign Garza to a somewhat reasonable deal and I won’t even be upset about it. I’m just saying that there is a case to be made that they are better off without Garza.

  81. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:21 pm

    idk if i’d call this skinny, but he doesnt look fat….

    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports......ndoval-16/

  82. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:15 pm
    bogdan – “Smart decision-makers ignore that kind of noise.”

    No, smart decision makers ignore nothing.

    _____

    Disagree completely. And this applies to all fields of study including finance, physics and baseball. There’s way way too much background noise now. CPAs have a concept called materiality to filter that out. Astronomers have always had to filter various wavelengths of light to detect red and blue shifts and the movement of galaxies. But it’s getting harder and harder because in every field, and in every science, experts are getting over-loaded with data, and a lot of it is bad data. Baseball is no exception. A good decision-maker today is a good filterer.

  83. joeman December 16th, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    I would check in on B Arroyo & call Mo for 1 more year

  84. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:23 pm

    “Statistics and advanced metrics are great. It’s the people who use them that can be the problem. They are tools, but not substitutes for good scouting and insight.”

    Say the guy who uses BA to describe offensive performance. LOL.

    “I pointed this out last night, using ML projections for non-roster, non-prospect minor leaguers is just silly. Smart decision-makers ignore that kind of noise.”

    No, they don’t. You really think that Brian Cashman traded for Dean Anna and gave him a 40-man spot without projecting how he’d play in MLB?

    You keep saying that Corban Joseph isn’t a prospect… but he is. He was included in all the prospect rankings one year ago and missed 2/3 of this season. Dude is still a prospect. A fringe prospect, but a prospect nonetheless.

  85. PacoDooley December 16th, 2013 at 1:24 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:17 pm
    PacoDooley – You could certainly make the arguement that a large percentage of Mariano’s appearances were wasted on games they probably would have won anyway.
    ————————————

    More importantly, if they had allowed him to come into some high-leverage situations they might have actually won more games.

    I heard someone call WFAN a couple of days ago trying to argue that the closer is the single most important position in the ‘four major’ sports. The closer probably isn’t even in the top five in baseball, let along all sports.

  86. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 1:25 pm

    He’s pretty clearly the 4th or 5th SP right now. Saying he may be the 3rd is not helpful to the conversation. It is dishonest and only acts as an irritant. It dissolves trust. CC, Kuroda, and Nova have publicly been called rotation locks

    ——————–

    I don’t think anyone is disputing that fact… but CC and Kuroda are no longer young men. Both now carry much more injury risk than in the past. It’s not that hard to imagine either hitting the DL, even short term. It forces each guy up on the totem pole, and the depth is a little shaky when even Phelps, Pineda and Warren haven’t gotten a lot of innings over the last two years. Warren has probably pitched the most.

  87. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:26 pm

    “Disagree completely.”

    You’re actually right here, but the problem is that you have no idea what “irrelevant noise” is if you believe that guys competing for 25-man roster spots and guys on the 40-man (you specifically mentioned Anna) are guys that an MLB GM should ignore.

    You think that Corban Joseph should be ignored as an MLB prospect, then you compare him to a guy who accumulated 10 fWAR on his career. The inconsistencies in your logic are just incredible.

  88. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:26 pm

    bigdan – You have to accept all of the statistics and facts as data first, THEN you weed out the irrelevant and inconclusive data points.

    You actually seem to be championing advanced metrics, as would every profession you just mentioned.

    Don’t confuse what random posters on the internet do incorerctly with the real statistical analysis that goes on behind the scenes in every single front office in the league.

  89. chicken_stanley December 16th, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    Well, I lasted 5 hours and 27 minutes at McDonalds… I know my goal was to stay as long as it took to get tossed but I think the crew is begining to get used to my being here (they’ve started to smile and call me by name as they walk by my booth :) )

    Catch you guys later.

  90. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    “I don’t think anyone is disputing that fact… but CC and Kuroda are no longer young men. Both now carry much more injury risk than in the past. It’s not that hard to imagine either hitting the DL, even short term.”

    What happens to the 5th SP in that case? The trade-off that Blake made was #5 vs. #3 or 4… your explanation does not resolve the dishonesty there. If that were Blake’s logic, it would have been #4 or 5 vs. #3 or 4.

  91. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:28 pm

    “What is a “fringe back-end SP” in your opinion? To me Phelps is already at least that. Of Ps with at least 150 IP the past two seasons, he’s #136 in fWAR. That includes some RPs and his IP are split between rotation and pen, but there are 150 rotation spots in ”

    yea sure I think you could call him now and that’s fine….but again I’d rather him be the 5th starter and be that than to expect more of him….especially with all the other risk in the rotation.

    They have to pretend like Pineda doesn’t even exist when building this roster…..because he’s a total unknown. Kuroda is 39 and ran out of gas last year…..Nova might be the 2013 version or he might show up in ST with no sinker again and be terrible. I just really think they need another “known” in the rotation……

  92. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:29 pm

    You have to get extremely deep into statistical analysis before you can even remotely think about “throwing out noise” because you can’t possible know what that noise is until you have determined the predictability, consistency and reliability of every data point you are looking at.

    Old school “scouts” are doing exactly this type of analysis, they just don’t understand (or refuse to understand) how what they are doing is tied directly to the data collected on paper.

  93. Yankee Trader December 16th, 2013 at 1:29 pm

    This article might help you decide which free agent pitcher would make the most sense for the Yankees if Tanaka stays in Japan.

    CAIRO projections:

    http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/.....y_in_japan

  94. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 1:31 pm

    Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:27 pm

    “I don’t think anyone is disputing that fact… but CC and Kuroda are no longer young men. Both now carry much more injury risk than in the past. It’s not that hard to imagine either hitting the DL, even short term.”

    What happens to the 5th SP in that case? The trade-off that Blake made was #5 vs. #3 or 4… your explanation does not resolve the dishonesty there. If that were Blake’s logic, it would have been #4 or 5 vs. #3 or 4.

    ——————–

    I thought we were talking about it in terms of: #3 Nova, #4 Phelps, and #5 Pineda.

    Right now, that’s your middle/back end.

    If they add a starter, obviously it changes. But one injury or set back for CC, Kuroda or Nova (who has had a couple), and ever guy moves up a spot.

  95. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:32 pm

    “I will say I think the rotation is a lot deeper with Garza AND phelps in it than Phelps and other”

    You don’t know what “other” is though. Other could be a fully healthy Pineda. It could be a trade for Justin Masterson if the Indians call 10 games back in May. It could be a FA next year. It could be Manny Banuelos at mid-season. The point is that other could, in fact, be a lot better than Garza.

    that’s a recipe for potential disaster……Pineda is a total unknown….his arm could blow up in March, banuelos’s innings are nowhere close to being ready ….and you can’t just count on being able to trade for a starter…..

  96. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:32 pm

    “I’m not a slave to statistics….I look at them but at some point you have to draw your own conclusions from them and what you see.”

    Who is a slave to statistics? Statistics are numbers on a page. The key is how you use them. You have to understand them to use them. I’m really not trying to be a dick, but you have to study them to actually use them in a reasonable way.

    Why did his H/9 stabilize? (And WHIP and H/P are so linked that those are not two pieces of evidence.) That’s tied up in BABIP and a bunch of other things. It’s not any different from saying that his ERA improved. Why?

  97. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:33 pm

    i like projections for a laugh. seeing jeff karstens> bronson arroyo had me laughing out loud.

    i knew we should never have let him go…. :)

  98. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:34 pm

    “Old school “scouts” are doing exactly this type of analysis, they just don’t understand (or refuse to understand) how what they are doing is tied directly to the data collected on paper.”

    the best organizations still listen to these old school scouts….they try to marry the info from then and the analytical people they have to come out with the right answers. Numbers can’t tell you everything….especially in scouting and trying to project players…..it’s a lot more valuable in finished products in the majors.

  99. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 1:35 pm

    im actually quite optimistic about pineda and phelps. and manban if he’s healthy.

    that being said, they need at least one dependable SP and a few ST invites that might give us something.

    the ‘rotation’ needs to be 7 deep imo.

  100. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 1:35 pm

    chicken_stanley December 16th, 2013 at 1:27 pm
    Well, I lasted 5 hours and 27 minutes at McDonalds… I know my goal was to stay as long as it took to get tossed but I think the crew is begining to get used to my being here (they’ve started to smile and call me by name as they walk by my booth :) )

    Catch you guys later.
    ——————-

    Heading over to Starbucks? Free WiFi!

  101. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 1:36 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:26 pm
    bigdan – You have to accept all of the statistics and facts as data first, THEN you weed out the irrelevant and inconclusive data points.

    ———-

    Maybe we don’t disagree. I’m not sure. But even if we agree on the metric as being valid, or at least the best out there, I don’t think the outcome solves the problem. Sometimes yes. Sometimes a real good financial analysis will identify a hidden value in a company that everyone can agree on. But that’s rare. Sometimes you have to value the good will line item in a balance sheet. There’s no real clear way to do that quantitatively. I’m not sure Steve Jobs used a lot a quantitative analysis when he helped design the Mac.

    The point is, numbers only get you so far. At the end of the day, it’s insight and creativity that made Steve Jobs and Branch Rickey. And in my opinion, Bill James.

  102. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 1:36 pm

    Of all the Yankees starting depth, they don’t have many guys that actually pitched a lot last year. Phelps is probably the least worrisome because while he hasn’t pitched a ton over the last two years he has a good number of total innings under his belt.

    But building a rotation thinking they can fill the back end spots with some combination of Phelps, Pineda, Warren, Nuno, or Banuelos/Ramirez just seems like a house of cards… breathe wrong and it all comes tumbling down.

  103. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    blake – I think you misunderstand my point. If the scouts are doing everything from memory… they should be fired immediately. “Data” is not simply limited to statistics. You have you take it all in, as you said. Stats and scouting reports are not actually different data sets.

  104. TKR December 16th, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    According to a Sponichi report, the Rakuten Golden Eagles are trying to convince highly-coveted right-hander Masahiro Tanaka to stay in Japan for one more season.

  105. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 1:40 pm

    TKR December 16th, 2013 at 1:38 pm

    According to a Sponichi report, the Rakuten Golden Eagles are trying to convince highly-coveted right-hander Masahiro Tanaka to stay in Japan for one more season.

    ————-

    Yeah I saw that last night.. HardBall posted it this morning. Hard to know what’s going to come of this, though I know the assumption has always been that he’d post.

  106. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:41 pm

    bigdan – Those people you mentioned are not trying to predict human ability though… so I don’t see how they are relevant.

    “Insight” and “creativity” are generally just bylines people and companies use when they get lucky and make what they originally knew was a poor decision not backed up by the data they were presented.

  107. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 1:41 pm

    They should really look at Nuno as their LOOGY.

    The chances of him making it as a starter is pretty slim… he’s already beaten so many odds to get to this point.

  108. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:41 pm

    “Why did his H/9 stabilize? (And WHIP and H/P are so linked that those are not two pieces of evidence.) That’s tied up in BABIP and a bunch of other things. It’s not any different from saying that his ERA improved. Why?”

    well that’s a good question but it doesn’t change the fact that it happened…..maybe it’s because his GB rate has increased and his FB rate has decreased? Maybe it’s because he ditched his curveball and started using his slider and CU more? Maybe he’s just matured as a pitcher? But when I look at his career it looks like things started to get more consistent around 2010 and that’s why I used that as the start of the window I did. It’s not concrete evidence and 2012 did happen…..but 3 of the last 4 seasons he’s been pretty good and I think that’s significant information.

  109. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 1:42 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 12:19 pm

    I’m not pushing the signing of Garza or Santana really because they will be overpaid most likely…..but they would both improve the rotation and if that’s the goal then they need to consider it if they can’t get Tanaka.

    If Tanaka is going to cost 6/100 or something plus the 20 posting fee then which is a better and safter plan…..that or Garza at say 5/85?

    I’m not sure….you know a lot more what you’re getting with Garza even if it’s not an ace but more like a very solid #3.
    ————————-

    I would try for Garza today. My guess is that his agent is smart enough to not let him sign until after we find out if Tanaka’s being posted or not. If Tanaka’s not posted, Garza’s asking price goes up because teams that were going to bid on Tanaka will likely look at him as Plan B.

  110. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 1:42 pm

    There’s already a plan B if we don’t get Tanaka. The problem is what the heck is it? 1 or 2 FA SP? 1 FA SP and a competition for the last slot? Who knows.

  111. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:43 pm

    and I know Santana has the rep of being a Fly ball guy but he had the same GB rate as Kuroda last year and his GB% has been above 43% the last 3 seasons…..he’s usuing his CU a lot more

  112. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:44 pm

    “blake – I think you misunderstand my point. If the scouts are doing everything from memory… they should be fired immediately. “Data” is not simply limited to statistics. You have you take it all in, as you said. Stats and scouting reports are not actually different data sets.”

    I think you’d be surprised how many scouts today look at statistics…..there might be some dinosaurs still around but it’s trending away from eyeballs only info.

  113. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:49 pm

    “I would try for Garza today. My guess is that his agent is smart enough to not let him sign until after we find out if Tanaka’s being posted or not. If Tanaka’s not posted, Garza’s asking price goes up because teams that were going to bid on Tanaka will likely look at him as Plan B.”

    eh I’d still rather have Tanaka…..the age difference is too significant to ignore and I think most other teams are feeling the same way. He’s stalling the pitcher market big time…..hopefully we will know soon if he will be posted.

  114. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:49 pm

    Let’s also not mistake stats for formulas.

    Hits, Walks, H/9, LD%, GB%, K’s, K/BB… 90% of the stats you see on fangraphs/baseball reference are facts. Measurements of the physical reality of the game of baseball. Not arguable, not opinion, not misleading… facts. They are what actually happened on the field.

    WAR, SIERRA/FIP, etc are formulas used to trying to put the raw facts in a more presentable form. They can easily be misused by people who don’t understand the underlying methods used to derive them.

    A scout that is not simultaneously tracking and analyzing the “facts” as part of their “scouting” is really just wasting everyone’s time pretending they think they know better than the real world.

    You can watch an ice cube melt, but you will never know why it is melting or how to stop it from melting in the future without taking measurements and analyzing it.

    Observation AND measurement are the basic tenants of the scientific method. Not observation OR measurement.

  115. hardwired7 December 16th, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    One positive for Santana:

    162 game avg – IP 215

  116. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 1:50 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 9:10 am

    here is a question:

    would you trade Gardner straight up for Chapman? You’re looking at 2 years of Chapman vs 1 of Gardner and at this point you have to consider that Chapman isn’t a starter anymore.

    It’s interesting but I”m not sure I’d do it……I do like the idea of bringing in Chappy to plunk Big Papi in the back side if he’s crowding the plate though.

    ——

    I’m a few hours late answering this question proposed by Blake but I thought it was an interesting one.

    I’ve certainly made it clear that I don’t beleive the Yanks should trade Gardner because they are really going to need him in 2014. He is not going to be a 4th outfielder for this team.

    However, I’d probably do it anyway for a kid like Chapman. Obviously, the kid throws serious gas and would help solidify a gaping hole in the pen now that Mo is gone.

    I personally don’t care if you make him the setup man or closer because his performance on the field would dictate what inning they decide to bring him in (8th or 9th).

    This team desperately needs more young talent so the front office should almost do whatever it takes to acquire them (within reason, of course).

  117. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:52 pm

    “A scout that is not simultaneously tracking and analyzing the “facts” as part of their “scouting” is really just wasting everyone’s time pretending they think they know better than the real world.”

    what scout doesn’t do this though? I just don’t think there are that many of the “he’s got a pretty girlfriend so he’s got confidence” guys out there anymore.

  118. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    Chapman is actually controlled 3 years instead of 2….he’s gonna get pricey in arbitration though I think.

  119. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 1:53 pm

    “the best organizations still listen to these old school scouts….they try to marry the info from then and the analytical people they have to come out with the right answers. Numbers can’t tell you everything….especially in scouting and trying to project players…..it’s a lot more valuable in finished products in the majors.”

    I would imagine that the best organizations are trying to bridge the gap by teaching their scouts about statistical analysis. There is evidence that the Cards and Rays do this. There was a great interview with the scouts AGM on fangraphs recently.

    “well that’s a good question but it doesn’t change the fact that it happened”

    It changes whether it happening is meaningful or not. And whether it is actually the trend you’re making it out to be. The best H/9 in his career were not recent, they were in 2006 and 2008. So… it is really a question whether it actually happened, or you are just reading it into the data. Two data points next to each other can be random as much as it can be a trend. This is what you don’t seem to understand, and is why I keep asking you to learn statistics if you want to discuss it in any sort of sophisticated manner.

    “But when I look at his career it looks like things started to get more consistent around 2010 and that’s why I used that as the start of the window I did. It’s not concrete evidence and 2012 did happen…..but 3 of the last 4 seasons he’s been pretty good and I think that’s significant information.”

    Again… If I look at his career from 2006-8 I can say a lot of the same things. He had one bad season and two good seasons… blah… blah… blah. You are not making the case that you think you are. In none of the past four seasons has be matched his 2006 fWAR or gotten above 1/2 of his 2008 fWAR.

  120. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    I don’t trust Ervin Santana at all. I think he’s in the same group as Edwin Jackson, AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes…boat load of talent that you can’t trust from inning to inning much less start to start.

  121. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    blake – You would have to ask someone that champions that arguement, I have no idea. I am personally pretty certain that those guys all went the way of the do-do 10 years ago. Sure there might be one out there, but… where? Who knows :p

  122. TKR December 16th, 2013 at 1:56 pm

    small problem you can’t get Chapman for Gardner..

  123. Captain Clutch December 16th, 2013 at 1:57 pm

    @SteveGilbertMLB

    According to baseball source the #Dbacks are close to acquiring Addison Reed from #WhiteSox for Matt Davidson.

  124. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 1:57 pm

    Whether it’s 2 or 3 yrs of control, I’d probably make that deal. I really wanted that kid when the Yanks had a shot at getting him.

  125. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:58 pm

    Chapman had an 87% strand rate last year (read: unrepeatable) and walks entire too many players to be a serious consideration as a trade target.

  126. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    “Again… If I look at his career from 2006-8 I can say a lot of the same things. He had one bad season and two good seasons… blah… blah… blah. You are not making the case that you think you are. In none of the past four seasons has be matched his 2006 fWAR or gotten above 1/2 of his 2008 fWAR.”

    from 2006-2008 he had 1 sub 4 ERA season out of 3. From 2010-2013 he’s had 3 sub 4 era seasons out of 4. I never said any of this was concrete evidence…..more of a hypothesis on my part.

    On the other hand with Santana…..you have to also consider that the last 4 years were his peak and that he could start declining soon as well.

    He’s a warty guy…..some good some bad…..but he’s not the fly ball guy he once was and he’s been pretty solid in his recent history. He’s going to probably get 85 million or so dollars from somebody……

  127. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    TKR December 16th, 2013 at 1:56 pm

    small problem you can’t get Chapman for Gardner..

    —–

    Realistically, you are probably right.

    It’s just a hypothetical since reality has been pretty boring lately rehashing the same topics over and over again.

  128. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    Captain Clutch December 16th, 2013 at 1:57 pm

    @SteveGilbertMLB

    According to baseball source the #Dbacks are close to acquiring Addison Reed from #WhiteSox for Matt Davidson.
    ————————

    I’m going to throw my computer out the window.

  129. blake December 16th, 2013 at 1:59 pm

    “According to baseball source the #Dbacks are close to acquiring Addison Reed from #WhiteSox for Matt Davidson.”

    curses!!!!

  130. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:00 pm

    If the White Sox and D’Backs do Reed for Davidson:

    a) good for them
    b) it means Chavez is a lock to go back to Arizona
    c) Ichiro for Keppinger should happen.

  131. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 2:02 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 1:58 pm

    Chapman had an 87% strand rate last year (read: unrepeatable) and walks entire too many players to be a serious consideration as a trade target.

    —–

    Maybe, but Robertson used to walk a ton of hitters too. Some would argue he still does.

    Chapman can be wild but he’s also got killer swing and miss stuff.

  132. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 2:02 pm

    Here’s a great analogy. The human genome is full of genetic junk. Tons and tons of it. The key to understanding human biology is to separate the junk from what’s meaningful. What genetic material actually makes us who we are.

    Baseball today similarly filled with statistical junk. Metrics that don’t work or make little sense. Data points that are irrelevant or frequently misused.

    Once again, filtering and having the insight to know how to use the data is the key.

  133. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:03 pm

    could we have beat Addison Reed? Probably not in upside…..

  134. Tar December 16th, 2013 at 2:03 pm

    Some “stats” are Subjective, yet some speak of all of them in absolute terms. I have a problem with that. Stats are also easily manipulated in order “to prove a point”.

    Being a “Geeky Sabre” guy probably means you are a good debater, but not necessarily a good baseball guy.

    I use to think JF was just a “stat” guy. But he has really upped his game into being a really good baseball guy as welll. Wave is another who I beleive uses stats wisely.

    Just my .02

  135. TKR December 16th, 2013 at 2:04 pm

    Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 1:59 pm
    TKR December 16th, 2013 at 1:56 pm

    small problem you can’t get Chapman for Gardner..

    —–

    Realistically, you are probably right.

    It’s just a hypothetical since reality has been pretty boring lately rehashing the same topics over and over again.
    ——————————-==================
    for sure

  136. hardwired7 December 16th, 2013 at 2:04 pm

    Santana’s not going to take the 3-4 starter money he deserves anyway, so this is all just good afternoon blog fodder.

    It’s pretty evident the only starter the Yanks are willing to shell out serious money for is Tanaka. I can’t blame them. Nuno, Warren et. al. can fill out the back of the rotation for a fraction of the dough that Santana or Garza would cost.

    If Santana can somehow be had on the cheap, though, he’d make sense. He has no injury history, and they need innings.

  137. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 2:05 pm

    Chip December 16th, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    I don’t trust Ervin Santana at all. I think he’s in the same group as Edwin Jackson, AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes…boat load of talent that you can’t trust from inning to inning much less start to start.

    —-

    Ditto. No fan of Santana or Jimenez.

    Not crazy about Garza either but he’s undoubtedly the best FA option after Tanaka.

  138. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:05 pm

    “Chapman had an 87% strand rate last year (read: unrepeatable)”

    He literally repeated it from 2012 to 2013. It is necessarily repeatable. I don’t know if he will repeat it, but you are really overstating your case.

    “walks entire too many players to be a serious consideration as a trade target.”

    You would not trade for one of the most productive RP in baseball the past two seasons because he walks too many guys? Without really knowing what the trade cost is? The BB and strand-rate, by the way, are most likely related as he’s putting guys on base via walks but not letting them get knocked in often with hits. You talk a lot about the use of statistics to misuse them so badly.

    Chapman has his red flags and I don’t know if I’d use Gardner to get him even considering the difference in control. He is definitely worth considering, though.

  139. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 2:07 pm

    You can watch an ice cube melt, but you will never know why it is melting or how to stop it from melting in the future without taking measurements and analyzing it.

    Observation AND measurement are the basic tenants of the scientific method. Not observation OR measurement.

    ________

    Are you familiar with the Uncertainty Principle? It is the cornerstone of Quantum Mechanics which is the most important scientific theory of the 20th century.

    There’s also a lot of good philosophical thought around the notion that there is no such thing as an objective fact. In each fact, or the description thereof, there are built-in assumptions.

    Not sure that clarifies anything :)

  140. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:07 pm

    “Being a “Geeky Sabre” guy probably means you are a good debater, but not necessarily a good baseball guy.”

    What do you consider to be the best run teams in MLB?

  141. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 2:07 pm

    I love how Merchand starts a rumor and then writes a whole article about it….

  142. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 2:08 pm

    I am interested in this Jose Pirela character.

  143. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    The Diamondbacks announced that they have acquired Addison Reed from the White Sox in exchange for third baseman Matt Davidson. MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert first reported that the trade was on the verge of happening (on Twitter).

  144. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:03 pm

    could we have beat Addison Reed? Probably not in upside…..
    ———————–

    No I don’t think we could have – unless you were willing to use Ivan Nova and as much as I like Davidson I wouldn’t go there.

    That said, I think it also ruins any chance of getting either Aaron Hill or Chris Owings.

  145. DaSaint007 December 16th, 2013 at 2:09 pm

    Done deal.

  146. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 2:08 pm

    I am interested in this Jose Pirela character.
    —————

    I am too – seems like he can hit. No one has told me if he can field though.

  147. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:11 pm

    “I use to think JF was just a “stat” guy. But he has really upped his game into being a really good baseball guy as welll. Wave is another who I beleive uses stats wisely.”

    I think most stat nerds that cover baseball are stat nerds that cover baseball because they love baseball…..if they just wanted to run stats on stuff they could do that on anything so I think most of them “especially the ones that actually work with teams” marry both objective and subjective stuff together. Pretty much all of the teams are hybrids these days…..some weigh scouting a little more…..some weigh metrics and statsitics and little more but virtually everybody uses both in 2013.

  148. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:11 pm

    “Not sure that clarifies anything :)”

    Doesn’t clarify much, no. Quoting and referencing smart people without explaining or at times even understanding how their work relates to the subject at hand does not make you look smart. It does does the opposite.

    “Once again, filtering and having the insight to know how to use the data is the key.”

    So, we should ignore anyone who isn’t a sure fire MLB starter!!!! No. You keep making points that don’t actually support your positions.

  149. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:11 pm

    so trading with the Dbacks is out now…..hey we could just sign Steven Drew :)

  150. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    there has to be a reason that Matt Garza has been traded so many times………

  151. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    I am too – seems like he can hit. No one has told me if he can field though.

    ___

    Doesn’t seem to be much about it.

    If there is no 2b signing, do they go with Pirela and CoJo competition in ST?
    That is ONLY doable if they have a power 3B.

  152. ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 2:13 pm

    there has to be a reason that Matt Garza has been traded so many times………

    ___

    Not necessarily,
    Cliff Lee has been traded a bunch of times and there is no doubt to his skill.

  153. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:15 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:11 pm

    so trading with the Dbacks is out now…..hey we could just sign Steven Drew
    ————————-

    Ichiro to the White Sox for Jeff Keppinger

  154. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:17 pm

    ac1 December 16th, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    I am too – seems like he can hit. No one has told me if he can field though.

    ___

    Doesn’t seem to be much about it.

    If there is no 2b signing, do they go with Pirela and CoJo competition in ST?
    That is ONLY doable if they have a power 3B.
    —————-

    Kelly Johnson has plenty of power if he’s at 3b.

    I would still make a small deal (as said above: Ichiro for Jeff Keppinger works – especially now with Davidson in Chicago). Keppinger gives insurance in case Pirela/CoJo/Alamedys Diaz? aren’t ready at 2b to open the year and if they are, he’s a nice guy to have on the bench due to his versatility.

  155. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 2:17 pm

    When are we trading Ichiro…??

  156. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:19 pm

    ac1….. this is true……………….I guess I have to ask the same question about Lee……

  157. Captain Clutch December 16th, 2013 at 2:19 pm

    Cashman should call Kevin Towers at least 5 times a day and eventually he will get gold. Seriously how does he still have a job.

  158. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 2:19 pm

    @jcrasnick Matt Davidson joins Jose Dariel Abreu, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia as part of #whitesox new young position player core.

  159. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:20 pm

    Davidson:

    Gone to the Pale Hose…..geeeez.

    Would’ve been nice to get someone like that….

    ….not enuf chips in our fishtank I guess…..

  160. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 2:21 pm

    Captain Clutch December 16th, 2013 at 2:19 pm

    Cashman should call Kevin Towers at least 5 times a day and eventually he will get gold. Seriously how does he still have a job.

    —————-

    I really don’t understand Towers at all. Defended him all of last year because I thought the owner was responsible for most of their moves but I’ve done a 180. I think he’s horrible.

  161. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 2:22 pm

    Garza

    2012 3.91 ERA 4.17 FIP 3.59 xFIP 103.2 IP 18 starts

    2013 3.82 ERA 3.88 FIP 3.73 xFIP 155.1 IP 24 starts

    The lack of ip/starts the last 2 years concerns me.

  162. joeman December 16th, 2013 at 2:23 pm

    Captain Clutch December 16th, 2013 at 2:19 pm
    Cashman should call Kevin Towers at least 5 times a day and eventually he will get gold. Seriously how does he still have a job.
    —————————————————-
    Cashman does what he does and that’s spending money….once in a while he gets lucky in a trade but not very often…..just spend that money Cash

  163. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    Am I right in assuming Garza is a free agent??

  164. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    “from 2006-2008 he had 1 sub 4 ERA season out of 3. From 2010-2013 he’s had 3 sub 4 era seasons out of 4. I never said any of this was concrete evidence…..more of a hypothesis on my part.”

    There’s a margin of error around any stat. You’re using a sample to project what a population looks like. In this case, a sample of games to project his underlying talent/production level. That he had a 4.3 ERA one of the early seasons and a 3.9 ERA one of the recent seasons doesn’t mean he actually pitched differently those two seasons. There’s probably a decent change, statistically, that two seasons 0.4 ERA points apart are not actually different. Especially with ERA, which isn’t really an individual stat. His FIPs were actually identical in 2006 and 2010.

    We’re necessarily dealing with small samples with baseball player seasons, but his 2006-8 was not entirely different from his 2010-13.

    His FBs are down (though only way down for one season), but it hasn’t really helped the HRs. His LH/RH splits haven’t been too bad a lot of years (they have been quite bad a few years too). I still wonder how he’d do in YS, though.

  165. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    Adam Eaton – CWS – 25YO – L/L – OF :

    Don’t get the big-time appeal with him.

  166. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    I’ve talked a lot about filtering today, which has become more and more important in the world we live in which is becoming more and more deluged with meaningless data. But as you can see, filtering is also important in the blogosphere.

  167. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 2:19 pm

    @jcrasnick Matt Davidson joins Jose Dariel Abreu, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia as part of #whitesox new young position player core.
    ————————–

    If they get Diaz to play SS I’m going to lose my mind…or what’s left of it.

  168. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:25 pm

    GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm

    Am I right in assuming Garza is a free agent??
    ————–

    Correct. And because he was traded mid-season from Chicago to Texas the Rangers weren’t able to make him a qualifying offer – thus there’s no draft pick compensation.

  169. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:26 pm

    What kind of contract is Garza looking for?

  170. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 2:26 pm

    Bess Eaton is better.

  171. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:27 pm

    GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:26 pm

    What kind of contract is Garza looking for?
    —————-

    Totally random guess, but based on what lesser pitchers have signed for I would say something along the lines of 5 years at $16/year is about right.

  172. joeman December 16th, 2013 at 2:28 pm

    UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:24 pm
    Adam Eaton – CWS – 25YO – L/L – OF :

    Don’t get the big-time appeal with him.
    ———————————————–
    kid has skills…just getting his feet wet..was 22 years old when he got drafted

  173. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    on the surface….it sure looks like Garza is a better option for a 4 or 5 starter than what we have because we have no proven starter beyond our top three………and who knows if we can get Tanaka……….seems like we need to cover ourselves and grab Garza if his contract demands are reasonable…….

  174. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    “there has to be a reason that Matt Garza has been traded so many times………”

    well the Rays traded him for the same reason they are trading Price now more or less…..and the Cubs traded him because he’s going to be a FA

  175. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    Eaton won’t be a power guy – but he’ll get on base. Garcia was a huge get – the Tigers wildly overpaid to get Iglasias for him.

    I really like the power they’re going to have at their INF corners.

  176. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:29 pm

    Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:27 pm
    GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:26 pm

    What kind of contract is Garza looking for?
    —————-

    Totally random guess, but based on what lesser pitchers have signed for I would say something along the lines of 5 years at $16/year is about right.
    ——————
    OUCH!!

  177. brianlopez22 December 16th, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    Ted,
    “With all due respect, you are miles away from beginning to prove the point you are making. I’ll give you a little hint. You will never manage to prove that point, because it’s an old wives tale with little basis in reality.

    Really? I was trying to be respectful of your point and make my point if the short space allotted.
    You are comparing David Phelps to Matt Garza.
    David Phelps has 23 GS in 2 years and has a 4.11 ERA.
    In 3 seasons at TB, Matt Garza had 93 GS with a 3.86 ERA.
    In 4 seasons in Arizona and now SD, Ian Kennedy had 129 starts to 3.85 ERA

    My point is that “stuff” wise, Phelps is more Ian Kennedy who got blown up as you say
    (STATS are easy things to compute).

    MY POINT THAT I HAVE PROVEN, is that Garza succeeded in AL East and has swing and miss stuff. Phelps, while I like him, can not be compared to Garza right now.
    I am willing to get Matt Garza for the right years as a complement to the young Phelps, rather than choose between the two.

    THAT, Mr. Nelson, was my point!

  178. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    Jerry Crasnick ?@jcrasnick 11m
    Matt Davidson has 25-30 HR power, but #dbacks didn’t like his footwork at 3B. He might be a better fit in AL. #whitesox

  179. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    For the Kevin Towers fans (?) :

    http://thebaseballhaven.mlblog.....are-going/

  180. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    “The Diamondbacks announced that they have acquired Addison Reed from the White Sox in exchange for third baseman Matt Davidson. MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert first reported that the trade was on the verge of happening (on Twitter).

    Reed, 24, has saved 69 games for the White Sox over the past two seasons, posting a 4.20 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 126 1/3 innings in that time. Sabermetric stats such as FIP (3.38) and SIERA (3.33) feel that Reed’s ERA should have been substantially lower in that time. The Diamondbacks will control Reed through the 2017 season and he is not arbitration eligible until next offseason, making him a highly affordable piece to add to the back-end of their bullpen.

    Davidson, 23 in March, made his big league debut in 2013, slashing .237/.333/.434 with three homers in 87 plate appearances. The 2009 supplemental-rounder entered the 2013 campaign ranked as Baseball America’s No. 88 overall prospect and MLB.com’s No. 77 overall prospect. Davidson delivered on that praise by slashing .280/.350/.481 with 17 homers in 500 plate appearances prior to his promotion to the big leagues. He is controllable through the 2019 season and can’t reach arbitration eligibility until at least the 2016-17 offseason.”

    Now why didn’t we do this ?

    I checked on Reed and he no better than a guy like Kelley, or possibly even Claiborne.

    Cashman asleep at the switch ?

    :(

  181. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:31 pm

    “I really don’t understand Towers at all. Defended him all of last year because I thought the owner was responsible for most of their moves but I’ve done a 180. I think he’s horrible.”

    I agree that Towers is horrible, but I don’t think that this move was. I think that Davidson has quickly gotten overrated by Yankees fans because he was a good, blocked/available prospect at a position of need and had a solid debut in 87 PAs.

    He’s a very good prospect, but not an elite prospect. He’s got power, but he also Ks a ton. I think a promising young RP coming off a strong season is a fair return. Doesn’t have the upside and Towers has shown a pension for overvaluing RPs. Davidson might not amount to much of anything, though.

  182. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:32 pm

    “I really don’t understand Towers at all. Defended him all of last year because I thought the owner was responsible for most of their moves but I’ve done a 180. I think he’s horrible.”

    he’s made some lets say strange moves recently…..I don’t hate this one though given that they are covered at 3B..

  183. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:32 pm

    bigdan – Your examples are just flat out awful. You can’t throw out data you don’t study and understand, and that’s not what scientists do with the “junk DNA” at all. What you call a “filter” is the END RESULT of analyzing ALL of the data.

    ted nelson – First, 2 data points does not make a trend. A strand rate that high is not repeatable (and this has been proven by much smarter men than me), and just because he happened to repeat it once doesn’t eliminate 100 years of statistical analysis… and it doesn’t mean you would bet on him repeating it again either.

    Why would they trade away… as you put it “one of the most valuable RP’s in baseball” for the crap you are peddling in the first place? His results have been good, yes… they are also hinging on some highly unreliable data points. Unfortunately because of the results he got, his trade cost would be too high to make what should be his “normal” stat line worth paying for.

    They always say “never pay for a career year”, and things like things are exactly why.

  184. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 2:32 pm

    TKR December 16th, 2013 at 1:38 pm
    According to a Sponichi report, the Rakuten Golden Eagles are trying to convince highly-coveted right-hander Masahiro Tanaka to stay in Japan for one more season.

    If I’m Tanaka I just tell them to post me or I’m not posting next year either and you’ll get nothing, if it comes to that.

    They need to piss or get off the pot. The whining about “only” getting 20 mil and holding up things here is getting annoying.

  185. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:33 pm

    Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 2:26 pm
    Bess Eaton is better.
    =============================

    They still around ?

    I’ll have 2 please.

  186. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:33 pm

    we yankee fans just want to ensure that Nunez won’t play 3B any way possible.

  187. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:34 pm

    News seems to appearing gloomier on Tanaka ?

  188. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:34 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:30 pm

    Jerry Crasnick ?@jcrasnick 11m
    Matt Davidson has 25-30 HR power, but #dbacks didn’t like his footwork at 3B. He might be a better fit in AL. #whitesox
    —————–

    Give Robin Ventura a spring training to work with him and he’s going to be just fine over there.

    Great trade for Chicago.

  189. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:32 pm

    “I really don’t understand Towers at all. Defended him all of last year because I thought the owner was responsible for most of their moves but I’ve done a 180. I think he’s horrible.”

    he’s made some lets say strange moves recently…..I don’t hate this one though given that they are covered at 3B..
    ——————–

    Yes they’re covered at 3b but how they wound up with that coverage at 3b gets back to the whole “strange moves” discussion.

  190. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    try to buy low on Olt from the Cubs….they have Bryant coming and Olt has slid backwards last couple of years. He might not ever amount to anything but wouldn’t mind taking a shot if the price wasn’t too high.

  191. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    bb-

    Apparently you don’t understand Japanese culture.

    ;)

  192. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    it sure looks more and more like Kelly Johnson will be our second baseman……..

  193. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    Towers just seems to like to shuffle pieces more or less……he spent all of last winter trying to acquire as many SS’s as possible and now he’s shuffling again. I bet trade phone conversations are fun with him.

  194. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    Blake -

    why weren’t we all over Davidson ?

    :(

  195. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:33 pm
    we yankee fans just want to ensure that Nunez won’t play 3B any way possible.

    =======================================

    …or 2B … or SS …. or even AAA.

    Package him up – maybe he’ll do better elsewhere.

  196. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:37 pm

    “it sure looks more and more like Kelly Johnson will be our second baseman……”

    honestly if they signed baker to platoon with him I bet that duo would put up close to an .800 OPS and hit 25 homers

  197. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 2:37 pm

    Well I think we all know the perfect GM to sell-high to on Betances should he dominate as a reliever in 2014.

  198. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:37 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    try to buy low on Olt from the Cubs….they have Bryant coming and Olt has slid backwards last couple of years. He might not ever amount to anything but wouldn’t mind taking a shot if the price wasn’t too high
    ———————

    Not sure what the right price is for Olt. Maybe Cervelli?

  199. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 2:37 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:33 pm

    we yankee fans just want to ensure that Nunez won’t play 3B any way possible.

    ————–

    Yeah this mostly..

    And I don’t think anyone was trying to overrate Davidson, but he’s young, cheap and has good upside. They got a good pen arm in return, but I think the WS end up with the more valuable player. We’ll see how the next couple years play out for both guys. Would have loved to get either, tbh.

  200. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:38 pm

    OLT:

    …for Nunez and _______.

    Work it out guys !

  201. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:38 pm

    It is hard to defend Nunez…..he has not delivered when he got the opportunities……there are glimpses of potential but that’s it……

  202. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:39 pm

    I’m thinking Cashman is asleep.

    It his pal and he still couldn’t get something done.

    We matched up just fine on Davidson.

  203. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:39 pm

    To be fair, Towers didn’t make a trade with the Mariners, which makes him infinity smarter than Cashman. ;p

  204. ron December 16th, 2013 at 2:39 pm

    Anna is very interesting to me.
    Also,i simply would not sign Garza,or similar pitchers because the money required does not separate any from what we could very well have in house,and do have.
    Yes we need debth,but we also have debth,so it’s not worth the cost.

    We need a few pitchers like,depaula,pineda,banuelos,ramirez to really get going.
    Pitching is just too expensive,for what you get.

  205. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 2:40 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:32 pm
    bigdan – Your examples are just flat out awful. You can’t throw out data you don’t study and understand, and that’s not what scientists do with the “junk DNA” at all. What you call a “filter” is the END RESULT of analyzing ALL of the data.

    _________

    You need to do a little more scholastic research before you can call my examples “flat out awful.” Start with this Zeno’s paradoxes and then move to the measurement paradoxes of Quantum theory. That will help you with your confusion around the word “filter.”

  206. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:40 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:36 pm

    Towers just seems to like to shuffle pieces more or less……he spent all of last winter trying to acquire as many SS’s as possible and now he’s shuffling again. I bet trade phone conversations are fun with him.
    —————————-

    Well I get why he did what he did at SS last year. He lost Drew, Owings was too far away – he liked Gregorious but wasn’t sure he would be ready to play so he went and got Pennington for insurance.

    The 3b thing makes less sense – you have Chris Johnson so you package him with Justin Upton to get Martin Prado???? Then sign Eric Hinske and Eric Chavez. Now you’re going to have Prado and Chavez when you should be playing Davidson at 3b and Prado in LF – but you can’t play Prado in LF because you just traded for Mark Trumbo and he’s going to have to play in the OF because you wanted his RH power – when if you had kept Justin Upton and Matt Davidson you would have all the RH power you could possibly want.

  207. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 2:41 pm

    Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:31 pm
    “I really don’t understand Towers at all. Defended him all of last year because I thought the owner was responsible for most of their moves but I’ve done a 180. I think he’s horrible.”

    I agree that Towers is horrible, but I don’t think that this move was. I think that Davidson has quickly gotten overrated by Yankees fans because he was a good, blocked/available prospect at a position of need and had a solid debut in 87 PAs.

    He’s a very good prospect, but not an elite prospect. He’s got power, but he also Ks a ton. I think a promising young RP coming off a strong season is a fair return. Doesn’t have the upside and Towers has shown a pension for overvaluing RPs. Davidson might not amount to much of anything, though.

    This completely contradicts your stance on Franklin last night. Franklin has only been ranked a little higher than Davidson, Davidson had a little better albeit shorter debut, yet you think a young reliever is a good return for him. Soriano plus other decent players is worth more than a reliever.

  208. Chip December 16th, 2013 at 2:41 pm

    GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm

    it sure looks more and more like Kelly Johnson will be our second baseman……..
    ———————–

    I don’t think so. 3b yes, but not 2b.

  209. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:37 pm
    “it sure looks more and more like Kelly Johnson will be our second baseman……”

    honestly if they signed baker to platoon with him I bet that duo would put up close to an .800 OPS and hit 25 homers
    ——————
    I think it might come to this…….

  210. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    The Yankees only have 1 RP comparable to Addison Reed, and he’s going to be closing for the Yankees next year.

    Do you want to trade him for a 3B “prospect” that is basically getting shuffled out of AZ after 3 seasons in their system (with fielding issues)?

    No, I don’t think anyone wants that.

    We need to stop pretending that just because a trade has been made, the Yankees could have been one of the teams in that trade. It’s not nearly that simple.

  211. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    “why weren’t we all over Davidson ?”

    we didnd’t really have a piece as good as Reed to offer that was controlled.

  212. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:42 pm

    I really think they need to sign Baker….he mashes lefties and can play a couple of different spots.

  213. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    “Not sure what the right price is for Olt. Maybe Cervelli?”

    I really have no idea….Theo is difficult

  214. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    I really don’t think we could have given a relief pitcher to SD if that’s what they wanted……our pen is super thin as it is…….

  215. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:43 pm

    “My point is that “stuff” wise, Phelps is more Ian Kennedy who got blown up as you say”

    Based on what? Reputation?

    “MY POINT THAT I HAVE PROVEN, is that Garza succeeded in AL East and has swing and miss stuff. ”

    No, he didn’t. He is not a strike-out P. Two of his 3 seasons in the AL East his K% was 17.5% or below. I don’t know where you’re getting this idea that Garza is a big strikeout P. The only 2013 Yankee SPs with lower K%s were Pettitte and Nuno. His 80% contact rate is also mediocre.

    Take a look on fangraphs for yourself. You don’t have to believe me.

    The point I was actually responding to was this idea that you need to be a strikeout P to succeed in the AL East. It’s just not supported by the evidence. (If you really think Garza succeeded in the AL East, he is evidence against your point since he didn’t get many swings and misses or Ks.) Certainly Ks are very useful for a P. Plenty of guys succeed in the AL East despite not K’ing much guys, though, and plenty of guys with great stuff fail.

    “I am willing to get Matt Garza for the right years as a complement to the young Phelps, rather than choose between the two.”

    There are a lot of other options besides just Garza and Phelps. You don’t seem to know much about Garza, so you might want to look into what sort of P he is before deciding you want him.

  216. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:44 pm

    Blake-

    Ever hear of Kelley, or possibly Claiborne ?

    This guy had middling 3 ERA in the NL last year.

    I don’t se him as anything all that special.

  217. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:44 pm

    “but you can’t play Prado in LF because you just traded for Mark Trumbo and he’s going to have to play in the OF because you wanted his RH power ”

    that trumbo deal was so dumb IMO….they literally could have signed Mark Reynolds and stuck him in LF and had like 80% of Trumbo and kept their pitchers.

  218. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:45 pm

    bigdan – “Motion is an illusion” and quantum uncertainty have NOTHING to do with what we are talking about. Obviously I have been schooled on these theories more than your 30 second google search has.

    You don’t seem to understand what “filtering” statistical data entails. I really don’t think you have a clue what you are talking about “statistically” at all

  219. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:45 pm

    “Ever hear of Kelley, or possibly Claiborne ?

    This guy had middling 3 ERA in the NL last year.

    I don’t se him as anything all that special.”

    upside

  220. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:42 pm
    The Yankees only have 1 RP comparable to Addison Reed, and he’s going to be closing for the Yankees next year.

    Do you want to trade him for a 3B “prospect” that is basically getting shuffled out of AZ after 3 seasons in their system (with fielding issues)?

    No, I don’t think anyone wants that.

    We need to stop pretending that just because a trade has been made, the Yankees could have been one of the teams in that trade. It’s not nearly that simple.

    ==============================

    Maybe they ‘could have’ ….

    Just trying to create different possible scenarios that may have worked (or been close — or even better)

    …not trying to ‘carbon-copy’ the deal.

  221. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    Relievers are our strength.

    If we can’t spare one of them we don’t have much of anything to trade.

    They are stacked up in the minors like planes waiting to take off at the airport.

    Claiborne, Whitley, Montgomery, etc.

    We have plenty.

  222. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:47 pm

    Upstate – Maybe they could have. Maybe they tried to? You don’t know. Assuming they didn’t belongs in bigdans “throw out the data you don’t like looking at” nonsense.

  223. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 2:47 pm

    MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:35 pm
    bb-

    Apparently you don’t understand Japanese culture.

    Oh I know how they work, I just don’t like it.

  224. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:48 pm

    Blake-

    You don’t think Claiborne has upside ?

    Did you see him before he tired ?

    You have to be kidding.

  225. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:46 pm
    Relievers are our strength.

    If we can’t spare one of them we don’t have much of anything to trade.

    They are stacked up in the minors like planes waiting to take off at the airport.

    Claiborne, Whitley, Montgomery, etc.

    We have plenty.

    Well none of those guys saved 40 games last year. I know the save stat is overblown, but it is what it is, we don’t have anything to match that.

  226. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    I think I’m the only person not worried about the pen… and I’m worried about almost everything.

  227. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:49 pm

    MTU – Trading a prospect for a MLB RP doesn’t sound like a team looking for “upside” to me. Looks like a team looking for a MLB RP.

  228. blake December 16th, 2013 at 2:50 pm

    “You don’t think Claiborne has upside ?”

    I guess…..he doesn’t have the kind of trade value to get Davidson though.

  229. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:50 pm

    “This completely contradicts your stance on Franklin last night. Franklin has only been ranked a little higher than Davidson, Davidson had a little better albeit shorter debut, yet you think a young reliever is a good return for him. Soriano plus other decent players is worth more than a reliever.”

    I disagree. Reed has four years of control, the first at the league minimum. Soriano has one year of control.

    What other decent player? If you don’t want Ichiro, Cervelli, or Romine on the Yankees, why do you think the Ms want them?

    I don’t think Franklin has much more value than Davidson, but I do think he has more value. You seem to put a lot of stock in media prospect rankings. Franklin plays up the middle, while Davidson may be a 1B. Franklin also has five times as many MLB PAs. 400 PAs is a sample that we can at least start to look at. 87 is a flash in the pan.

  230. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:50 pm

    Well anyway.

    We’d better find ourselves a mid-rotation starter.

    That’s even more important.

    ;)

  231. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:51 pm

    “Well none of those guys saved 40 games last year. I know the save stat is overblown, but it is what it is, we don’t have anything to match that.”

    Don’t even have to look at saves. None of the Yankees guys besides Robertson has done much of anything that Reed did last season at the MLB level.

  232. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:52 pm

    A closer who posts a mid-3′s ERA doesn’t impress me.

    Let me know when he’s around 2.5 and I’ll start to take notice.

    ;)

  233. hardwired7 December 16th, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    The TBD-to-money-left-to-spend ratio is getting pretty scary here.

  234. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 2:54 pm

    Also, bbb, I don’t like the deal for the DBacks particularly. What I said what that it wasn’t horrible.

  235. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    Reed learned how to pop guys up to get outs last season, and it made a big difference in his performance. Somehow this is related to his decreased fastball and increased slider use but… I don’t really understand that at all :)

  236. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    That 32YO Jeff Baker….

    …decent year in 2013 based off only 150AB’s :

    11-21 .279 (.360)

    …I think he has to be on our list.

    VS. LHP : 100 AB’s 10-18 .314 (.407)

    (would be nice to project that over 250 AB’s)

  237. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 2:55 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:45 pm
    bigdan – “Motion is an illusion” and quantum uncertainty have NOTHING to do with what we are talking about. Obviously I have been schooled on these theories more than your 30 second google search has.

    You don’t seem to understand what “filtering” statistical data entails. I really don’t think you have a clue what you are talking about “statistically” at all

    No, I think you are wrong again. I don’t think motion is the illusion. Being in one place is the illusion that quantum theory teaches us. And when you use a metric tool to measure a baseball player, there are built in assumptions in that tool (like I explained before about the lack of objective data), so when measure that performance, you are changing that player by your own rules, creating a quantum reality, in much the same way the spin or velocity of an electron is changed when you shine a light on it.

    Gee I had to read Wiki real fast for that haha! You should research paradoxes though. You have a real problem with that.

  238. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 2:57 pm

    Reed has 4 years of control, I know, but he’s still a reliever. 40 saves, but you know what, it’s not all that uncommon for a young reliever who throws well to save some games given the opportunity. Some people in baseball don’t see it this way though.

    I included Cervelli/Romine because supposedly the M’s are looking for a backup catcher, not because I don’t like them. I would like Cervelli to be our bu catcher next year, but would trade him if it helps fill other needs.

    Ichiro I just threw in because I thought they might be receptive, given that he’s “theirs”. The added prospect could be a good one, but not one of our top guys.

  239. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:57 pm

    bigdan – I don’t need to research anything. You need to learn how to stay on topic. You’ve been proven to be wrong and now you are just deflecting.

  240. austinmac December 16th, 2013 at 2:58 pm

    MTU,

    Minor league relievers we have in abundance. We have one pitcher, Robertson, about whom I have confidence, at least as an eighth inning guy. Clairborne shouldn’t have gotten tired. He didn’t throw that many innings. It is just as likely the league saw enough of him.

    Kelley has been up and down.

    If you have pitchers who don’t regularly get to the late innings–see Phelps and any other 4th and 5th starter and Kuroda whom they want to protect, a strong bullpen is critical. Right now we have three right handers, only one of whom has had any long term success. We have a leffty who regularly has an ERA far above 4.00 in the minors.

    The major league bullpen is in utter turmoil.

  241. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 2:59 pm

    MTU December 16th, 2013 at 2:46 pm

    Relievers are our strength.

    If we can’t spare one of them we don’t have much of anything to trade.

    They are stacked up in the minors like planes waiting to take off at the airport.

    Claiborne, Whitley, Montgomery, etc.

    We have plenty.

    That’s the only area where the Yanks have done a good job developing youngsters.

    The downside though is that some of those arms were supposed to be starting pitchers that they converted to relievers.

  242. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 2:59 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:47 pm
    Upstate – Maybe they could have. Maybe they tried to? You don’t know. Assuming they didn’t belongs in bigdans “throw out the data you don’t like looking at” nonsense.
    ========================

    Regardless if the FO did or didn’t try…it’s fun to try and play GM and see what we/you can ALSO come up with to try and ‘steal-the-deal’

    …just like people do on a blog ….oh, wait………

  243. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 2:57 pm
    bigdan – I don’t need to research anything. You need to learn how to stay on topic. You’ve been proven to be wrong and now you are just deflecting.

    ______

    No, not proven wrong. But now I am filtering :)

  244. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    The major league bullpen is in utter turmoil.

    ————-

    If you had to measure it using one of those justice scales, which is worse: the pen or the INF?

    Because the INF is like Michael Myers scary to me.

  245. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    Addison Reed blew at least 8 games.

    So he saved 40 and blew at least 8.

    Not impressed.

  246. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 3:01 pm

    The bullpen is like Gremlins scary.

    I started with the scales of justice and ended the metaphor with horror movie characters… I need coffee.

  247. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    GF-

    Failed starters frequently wind up as BP guys.

    What’s important is they find a use and are effective.

    ;)

  248. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 3:03 pm

    Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 3:00 pm

    The major league bullpen is in utter turmoil.

    ————-

    If you had to measure it using one of those justice scales, which is worse: the pen or the INF?

    Because the INF is like Michael Myers scary to me.

    —-

    Only the Michael Myers from ’78 and ’81. The others couldn’t scare a 5 yr old. :)

  249. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:04 pm

    they’ll figure the bullpen out….that’s one thing they are pretty good at. It’ll be harder without Mo but I still don’t think it’s the biggest concern at this point and it’s something that you can address during the season.

  250. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 3:05 pm

    But to review:

    Bullpen = Gremlins
    Infield = Michale Myers

    Horror scale: Least scary being the Leprechaun from the movie Leprechaun, and the most scary being the Spice Girls from Spice World Regan from the Exorcist.

  251. Shame Spencer December 16th, 2013 at 3:05 pm

    Only the Michael Myers from ’78 and ’81. The others couldn’t scare a 5 yr old. :)

    ————-

    Originals only!!

  252. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:06 pm

    Blake-

    We need a good LOOGY for sure.

    The rest I believe they can piece together.

  253. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    bigdan – You can’t “filter out” data until you study and understand the relevance and reliability of that data you wish to remove as it pertains to the entire system and your goals of analysis.

    You don’t just throw out data blindly because you don’t want to look at it. Every example you have posted so far has been almost blatantly incorrect.

    http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/v.....8;type=pdf

    Get more knowledge.

  254. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    austinmac December 16th, 2013 at 2:58 pm
    MTU,

    Minor league relievers we have in abundance. We have one pitcher, Robertson, about whom I have confidence, at least as an eighth inning guy. Clairborne shouldn’t have gotten tired. He didn’t throw that many innings. It is just as likely the league saw enough of him.

    Kelley has been up and down.

    If you have pitchers who don’t regularly get to the late innings–see Phelps and any other 4th and 5th starter and Kuroda whom they want to protect, a strong bullpen is critical. Right now we have three right handers, only one of whom has had any long term success. We have a leffty who regularly has an ERA far above 4.00 in the minors.

    The major league bullpen is in utter turmoil

    ________

    I made this point last week. It’s quite a bit easier to build a bullpen during the season when you know exactly who your No 1 and No. 2 guys are. It’s been a real long time since the Yanks didn’t have both going into the season. This is def going to be a challenge.

  255. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:07 pm

    Yankees overriding need is for a mid-rotation starter.

    They’d better that one resolved.

  256. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 3:08 pm

    MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    GF-

    Failed starters frequently wind up as BP guys.

    What’s important is they find a use and are effective.

    —-

    No doubt about that. But, IMO, this organization has failed miserably developing starters since Cash wrestled control of the farm in 2005.

    That’s not good since their strategy was to put a lot of emphasis on drafting young arms with upside and largely ignored position players.

  257. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:08 pm

    Jeff Baker

    Career vs LHP .298 .353 .522 .875
    2013 vs LHP: .314 .407 .667 1.073

    what are we waiting for here?

  258. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 3:10 pm

    Why does everyone blame Cashman for the teams inability to develop starting pitching?

    Cashman doesn’t directly hire the development staff or minor league coaches that have basically torn the minor league system to shreds.

  259. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:10 pm

    Mac-

    Respectfully, other than a LOOGY I think we are in better shape than you think.

    Might could use 1 more experienced arm as insurance.

    Almost all relievers carry question marks from season to season.

    That is a hallmark. Inconsistency.

    In many ways, that’s why they wind up in the pen.

    ;)

  260. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:11 pm

    blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:08 pm
    Jeff Baker

    Career vs LHP .298 .353 .522 .875
    2013 vs LHP: .314 .407 .667 1.073

    what are we waiting for here?

    ——-

    I think he was pretty bad on that split in 2012 but that looks like an outlier. Johnson with Baker might be palatable. Has anybody seen these guys actually play 2b? How’s their glove?

  261. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 3:12 pm

    MTU – Lucky for us, LOOGY’s are not required to win baseball games! ;)

  262. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:12 pm

    GF-

    2nd wave arriving.

    Let’s see if it’s better.

    Needs to be.

    Hoping Patterson makes a difference.

  263. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:13 pm

    ID-

    I want one.

    :)

  264. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:13 pm

    I think he was pretty bad on that split in 2012 but that looks like an outlier. Johnson with Baker might be palatable. Has anybody seen these guys actually play 2b? How’s their glove?”

    not great but probably aren’t gonna find somebody that’s good at everything at this point.

  265. austinmac December 16th, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    Shame,

    I would give the infield whatever is worse than utter turmoil. How about we play four extra outfielders really shallow?

  266. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:14 pm

    I’m still holding out hope for Bailey.

    Just sweeten the pot a little.

    ;)

  267. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:15 pm

    If we get a LOOGY then hopefully it’s somebody that is really a LOOGY…..Logan was a tweener and it caused a lot of problems because Girardi would bring him in to face a lefty which he wouldn’t get out and then he’d leave him in to face a righty because he kinda gets them out a little bit better than most LOOGY’s do……get a straight up LOOGY that is death on LH hitters but somebody that you want out of there after that hitter.

  268. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:15 pm

    Two pitchers we really need:

    HOMER

    BALL-FOUR

  269. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    Who here thinks A-Rod gets less than 100 games ?

  270. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:16 pm

    Next offseason fans will cry for:

    BLOOP

    BLAST

  271. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    “not great but probably aren’t gonna find somebody that’s good at everything at this point.”

    ________

    That’s why I thought Ellis was the best choice. He hits righties and plays defense. And Lord knows, the Yanks really need defensive help up the middle. Unless Ryan starts.

  272. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    Bret-

    Stick w me on Bailey.

  273. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 3:17 pm

    blake – I will certainly agree with that. Logan’s classic move in my mind was…
    walk the LHB he’s supposed to get out
    get left in the game to face a RHB because there is another LHB behind him
    give up back to back home runs anyway because he’s terrible

    He was good at getting mediocre LHB’s out, but he couldn’t face an elite LHB to save his life (or the game for the yankees… whatever).

  274. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:18 pm

    MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:16 pm
    Who here thinks A-Rod gets less than 100 games ?

    ——–

    Been saying 50-100 for weeks now. Don’t think MLB can win this thing. 50 Arod wins, 100 is a tie.

  275. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:18 pm

    MTU,

    I’m trying. I thought about it more and maybe the Phillips contract is something the Reds desperately want to move.

  276. bbb51 December 16th, 2013 at 3:18 pm

    I fear they may make a guy like Jose Ramirez into a reliever.

  277. brianlopez22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    Ted,

    Garza averaged approx. 8Ks in 4 of his last 6 seasons.
    And he has pitched to a sub-4 ERA in the AL East before.
    His fastball sits 93-94 with a nasty (using my eyes here) curveball/slider combination.

    Watching Garza makes me want him.
    His career has stacked up very nicely, that makes me want him.
    He has been the #1 on a staff before.

    I don’t see any other pitcher in the market that I have seen pitch (this excludes Tanaka) that I would want for any amount of time, let alone 3 or 4 years.

    As I mentioned, I like Phelps. He gets groundballs. He has a surprising strikeout ratio for his style of pitching. And by style, I mean a FB that sits 90-92 with an off-speed pitch that entices a groundball. In 33 starts and time to prepare, hitters adjust better to 90-92, than they do 93-94
    That was the basis for my comparison.
    My mistake is that I even made the comparison because Phelps does not have 33 starts in 1 season yet. I cannot with 100% certainty say that he will become Ian Kennedy or Matt Garza, or somewhere in the middle.

    Garza does not require me to trade Phelps anywhere, and having Garza and Phelps as the 4/5 combo makes me feel better about our staff over Phelps/Pineda or Phelps/Nuno.

  278. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:11 pm
    blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:08 pm
    Jeff Baker

    Career vs LHP .298 .353 .522 .875
    2013 vs LHP: .314 .407 .667 1.073

    what are we waiting for here?

    ——-

    I think he was pretty bad on that split in 2012 but that looks like an outlier. Johnson with Baker might be palatable. Has anybody seen these guys actually play 2b? How’s their glove?
    ==========================

    Has to be better than Nunez’s “D”….. but so is a RubberMaid garbage can.

  279. pkyankfan69 December 16th, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    1B – Tex
    2B – Johnson/Baker Platoon
    SS – Jeter (backed uo by Ryan)
    3B – Aram

    Not a bad infield if healthy

    CF – Ellsbury
    SS – Jeter
    RF – Beltran
    C – McCann
    DH – Soriano
    1B – Tex
    3B – Aram
    2B – Johnson/Baker
    LF – Gardner

    Not a bad lil’ lineup

  280. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    francessa said that the decision by yes to drop his simulcast was due to many reasons. he cited economics and ‘editorial control’ as reasons then said “was arod part of it? I’m sure he was”

    as he went on about it he said he knew this was coming since summer, then later said he knew since summer that there would be no negotiations and that there weren’t any.

    translation: it was because of arod.

  281. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    Clay Rapada was a LOOGY.

    O’Flaherty can be a LOOGY.

    Cabral ? Huff ? Who knows.

  282. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    “blake – I will certainly agree with that. Logan’s classic move in my mind was…
    walk the LHB he’s supposed to get out
    get left in the game to face a RHB because there is another LHB behind him
    give up back to back home runs anyway because he’s terrible”

    worst…..drove me nuts. Logan isn’t really a LOOGY….he’s just a mediocre regular reliever more than anything and he got 15 million dollars for it…..kudos to him.

  283. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    Here’s something I’m worried about. The Yanks do virtually nothing for the bullpen in the off season and Girardi puts Pineda and Nuno there because that’s the place they can most help the team in April.

  284. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:20 pm

    Imagine how painful it would be to watch Dellin Betances try and save 40 MLB games.

    :lol:

    I don’t know how we match up with AZ for Davidson.

  285. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:21 pm

    1B – Tex
    2B – Johnson/Baker Platoon
    SS – Jeter (backed uo by Ryan)
    3B – Aram

    Not a bad infield if healthy

    CF – Ellsbury
    SS – Jeter
    RF – Beltran
    C – McCann
    DH – Soriano
    1B – Tex
    3B – Aram
    2B – Johnson/Baker
    LF – Gardner

    Not a bad lil’ lineup”

    heh….where do I sign up

  286. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 3:21 pm

    “bigdan – I don’t need to research anything. You need to learn how to stay on topic. You’ve been proven to be wrong and now you are just deflecting.”

    That’s his M.O. All he seems to do on here, really.

    Then the next move is always to back out of the conversation.

  287. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    Who has the “non-provable pipeline’ to Cashman ?

    Francessa ?
    Michael Kay ?
    Joel Sherman ?

    Who’s pretty much connected to who ???

  288. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    Doesn’t Aramis have a hugely expensive contract ?

  289. blake December 16th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    is Aramis available or are we just speculating on that?

  290. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    i saw betances pitch some really dominant innings at trenton a couple years ago.

    if he could throw like that consistently, it could be quite pleasant to watch him close games.

    he will likely continue to be inconsistent, though.

  291. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    Aramis is owed 16 mil for 2014.

    No thanks.

  292. brianlopez22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    who are you trading for Aramis?
    Milwaukee needs a power hitter who isn’t on the juice.

  293. Irreverent Discourse December 16th, 2013 at 3:24 pm

    2014 36 Milwaukee Brewers $16,000,000
    2015 37 Milwaukee Brewers *$14,000,000 $14M Mutual Option, $4M Buyout

    That’s what is left on Aramis’ contract.

    Brewers might move him but… again… without eating all of that money the Yankees don’t have pieces anyone wants.

    A trade for a stud player like this is simply not going to happen.

  294. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:25 pm

    Oh gawd, Betances is a drunk driver on a superhighway on that mound.

  295. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:26 pm

    during rush hour.

  296. Bret The Hitman December 16th, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    in Mexico City

  297. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    ” UpState December 16th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    Who has the “non-provable pipeline’ to Cashman ?

    Francessa ?
    Michael Kay ?
    Joel Sherman ?

    Who’s pretty much connected to who ???”
    ——————————————
    i have a feeling that levine is sherman’s guy.
    i kinda think cashman doesnt have one guy.
    francessa doesnt seem to have anyone in yankeeland these days, but he definitely has someone in the mets FO (and i think it’s jeff wilpon)
    i have a feeling everyone keeps kay at arms length.

  298. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    ” He has a surprising strikeout ratio for his style of pitching. And by style, I mean a FB that sits 90-92 with an off-speed pitch that entices a ground ball.”

    It is not surprising unless you think that Ping is all about velocity. It’s not.

    “My mistake is that I even made the comparison because Phelps does not have 33 starts in 1 season yet. ”

    No, it has little to do with Garza vs. Phelps. Garza is not a K pitcher relative to the rest of the league.
    I never said that Phelps is a strikeout P. I just said that Garza is not. Your argument is that you have to be a swing-and-miss guy (which you somehow define by only velocity) to succeed in the AL East. Garza is not a swing-and-miss guy. Both your points cannot be true. Either you don’t need swing-and-miss stuff in the AL East, or Garza isn’t going to succeed in the AL East.

    “Garza does not require me to trade Phelps anywhere, and having Garza and Phelps as the 4/5 combo makes me feel better about our staff over Phelps/Pineda or Phelps/Nuno.”

    Those aren’t the only options. You’ve created a false trade-off. Stacked the deck in favor of your argument.

  299. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:27 pm

    Keep your eyes on the prize.

    The rest’s just noise.

    ;)

  300. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:30 pm

    If Mr. T doesn’t post the other options are going to fly off the shelf quickly.

    Cashman better be ready.

    Garza, Santana, U-Jim would be my order.

    None of them is as good as Bailey, or has the potential of Tanaka.

    They’d better fill that hole well or the whole dam is going to break.

  301. UpState December 16th, 2013 at 3:31 pm

    Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 3:27 pm
    ” UpState December 16th, 2013 at 3:22 pm

    Who has the “non-provable pipeline’ to Cashman ?

    Francessa ?
    Michael Kay ?
    Joel Sherman ?

    Who’s pretty much connected to who ???”
    ——————————————
    i have a feeling that levine is sherman’s guy.
    i kinda think cashman doesnt have one guy.
    francessa doesnt seem to have anyone in yankeeland these days, but he definitely has someone in the mets FO (and i think it’s jeff wilpon)
    i have a feeling everyone keeps kay at arms length.
    ===============================

    I appreciate that input !

    Interesting….any other writers/ columnists /journalists/ sportscasters have other “un-provable connections” ???

    (or pretty strong guesses ?)

  302. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 3:33 pm

    “Here’s something I’m worried about. The Yanks do virtually nothing for the bullpen in the off season and Girardi puts Pineda and Nuno there because that’s the place they can most help the team in April.”

    Dean Anna is not worth even projecting at the MLB level, but Nuno cannot pitch out the bullpen? My guess is that Nuno is more likely to pitch in the pen than the starting rotation. We’ll have to see what Pineda has before deciding what his best role is. Chances are decent that a SP prospect or two ends up in the pen. Girardi already mentioned Phelps and Warren having BP roles if they don’t win rotation spots. I could see Ramirez in the pen since he can’t actually pitch a full season, but I could also see them giving it another go or two as a SP since he has so much promise.

    Cashman has also said many times now that he decides players’ general roles, not Girardi.

  303. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:35 pm

    Where are all the huggers?
    Let Nuno Warren Phelps and the rest battle for the 4 and 5 spots.
    End of world?

  304. joeman December 16th, 2013 at 3:36 pm

    ARod will get what Braun got

  305. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:36 pm

    Mike scooped the world with Arod and it ends up being his undoing?
    He will get a better contract to play for MSG and Dolan.
    Watch.

  306. pkyankfan69 December 16th, 2013 at 3:37 pm

    MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:24 pm
    Aramis is owed 16 mil for 2014.

    No thanks.
    ————–
    It would actually end up being $20M because their is a mutual option with a $4M buy out for 2015.

    Hard to argue with his production over the last few years:

    2011 – .306/.361/.510/.871 – 149 games
    2012 – .300/.360/.540/.900 – 149 games
    2013 – .283/.370/.461/.831 – 92 games

    For a power hitter he’s also very contact oriented… Only stuck out 100 times in a season once in his career… Very good for a power hitter in today’s game.

    There was a lot of trade speculation about Aram at the TD last year but he was on the DL so it did not happen… The Brewers said something along the lines of “he’s ‘probably’ not available this offseason because they don’t have a 3B”… Not exactly a hard denial. The Brewers are going to be garbage this season, why would they want to pay Aram $20M on the last year of his contract on a last place team? Reading between the lines, he can certainly be had.

    I would imagine you could even get the Brewers to eat some money…

    Something along the lines of Nuney (their shiny new 3B lol) + Turley + some low level guy for Aram and $5 – $8M coming back.

    Also of this is of course contingent on Arod being suspended for at least most of the season. I don’t see any 3B available who are even close to the level of Aram.

    The big question about Aram of course is health… He missed almost 1/2 the year last year but he did play full season the 2 prior years… IMO it’s worth the risk… It’s not my money and it’s only a 1 year deal so for the Yanks the risk is really minimal… Can’t do less than Youk did for his $13M last year.

  307. Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 3:38 pm

    bill madden is always spouting the yankees line. i think he’s in with hal.

  308. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:38 pm

    We are done spending money.

  309. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:39 pm

    Mick-

    There is already a lot of risk built into next year’s rotation.

    i.e. CC, Kuroda, and Nova all w various question marks attached.

    To add 2 youngsters on top of that is a recipe for disaster IMO.

    Actually the opposite approach is required IMO.

    They need to find a solid #3 type who has the potential to move up just in case.

    That is neither Warren nor Phelps.

    That’s my take.

  310. Giuseppe Franco December 16th, 2013 at 3:40 pm

    Ys Guy December 16th, 2013 at 3:19 pm

    francessa said that the decision by yes to drop his simulcast was due to many reasons. he cited economics and ‘editorial control’ as reasons then said “was arod part of it? I’m sure he was”

    as he went on about it he said he knew this was coming since summer, then later said he knew since summer that there would be no negotiations and that there weren’t any.

    translation: it was because of arod.

    —-

    I really hope they aren’t that petty and that the real reason is because he sucks.

    Then again, they are replacing him with Kay and he’s not any better.

  311. MTU December 16th, 2013 at 3:40 pm

    new one ————–>

  312. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:41 pm

    Make a faint try at Tanaka for PR porposes (as Luis says) , sign Baker, Veras and Bronson and call it a day.

  313. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:41 pm

    I really hope they aren’t that petty and that the real reason is because he sucks.
    =================
    His ratings are the highest.

  314. bigdan22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:42 pm

    mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:36 pm

    “Mike scooped the world with Arod and it ends up being his undoing?
    He will get a better contract to play for MSG and Dolan.
    Watch.”

    _________

    I haven’t followed this discussion at all but are you saying Francesa was punished because he interviewed Arod right after he stormed out of the arbitration? That was a great spot. Maybe the questions were a little soft but overall that’s what sports journalism should do. Boy do I miss Cosell sometimes.

  315. ron December 16th, 2013 at 3:42 pm

    Anytime you can get a 3b prospect like Davidson,for an 80 innings,possible closer,you do it,without blinking.
    We can easily sign a closer,and get a new setup man.
    We have a huge problem at 3b,with,or without arod.
    You can live with Johnson at 3b,or 2b,but it gets ugly when you have ryan,and Johnson manning 3b,and 2b,especially not knowing what jeter will give you.If jeter gets hurt,now you have a very ugly infield of ryan,nunez,johnson.
    Not pretty.Davidson is controllable,through the 2019 season,and is not arb eligible until the 2017,or so,and has some serious pop.
    Yankees have to smarten up.

    Imo,of course.

  316. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:43 pm

    YES is the Yankee PR arm and Mike sided with Arod.
    I’m sure Levine and Hal didn’t take kindly to that.
    Mike buried the lead but admitted it.

  317. brianlopez22 December 16th, 2013 at 3:45 pm


    Those aren’t the only options. You’ve created a false trade-off. Stacked the deck in favor of your argument.

    Fair, but that was the comparison being made at the time.
    You made the point that Phelps was essentially Garza without the years to prove himself.
    That is the comparison I was opining to.
    I disagree and still believe Garza has the ability to make bats miss with his combination of pitches. You have correctly stated that he does not have the swing and miss stuff history in this league.
    Now, it is simply silly since 300+ new ideas have been made.

    The whole back and forth has been simply frustrating.
    All you needed to say was you don’t think Garza is as much of a strikeout pitcher, provided your stat and disagreed.
    I would have agreed to disagree and this would have been over.
    Simply to make over the top statements, ridiculous accusations about the sources of people’s opinions and provide more meaningless stats that make us go around in circles has simply been a waste of time.

    I like Matt Garza as a #4 option.
    I think he has the track record to give us a chance to win.
    I like Phelps, I don’t know how he’ll become but I’d like to see what he becomes given the chance to start 90+ games in 3 years. Maybe he becomes Matt Garza, maybe better, maybe worse. But I don’t know.
    So I can’t say, with certainty, that Phelps is Matt Garza, without the track record.

  318. mick December 16th, 2013 at 3:45 pm

    MTU

    They are evidently done spending money so whoever is left over is ours at SP, RP, 3B.

  319. joeman December 16th, 2013 at 3:54 pm

    they were better off bringing the Dog back…that would be a kick in the azz

  320. Ted Nelson December 16th, 2013 at 4:02 pm

    “The whole back and forth has been simply frustrating.
    All you needed to say was you don’t think Garza is as much of a strikeout pitcher, provided your stat and disagreed.
    I would have agreed to disagree and this would have been over.”

    We can’t agree to disagree. You said that Garza is a swing-and-miss P. You have provided no evidence to support this statement and all the evidence I’ve found contradicts it.

    “I like Matt Garza as a #4 option.
    I think he has the track record to give us a chance to win.”

    This is not what I disagreed with you about. This is why we keep going back and forth. I disagreed with you that Garza is a swing-and-miss or K P. He is not.

    “90+ games in 3 years. Maybe he becomes Matt Garza, maybe better, maybe worse. But I don’t know.
    So I can’t say, with certainty, that Phelps is Matt Garza, without the track record.”

    No one said anything different. What I said is that for what will probably end up being like $45, 50 million difference in salary the next four years the chance that he’s as good as Garza could be well worth taking, especially when they wouldn’t be locked into Phelps and could keep looking for alternatives going forward. In a few months what started as Phelps in the #5 spot (behind Pineda, who I am pretty high on) could become Manny Banluelos or Justin Masterson or whoever else. What starts as Matt Garza is pretty likely to be Matt Garza for a few years given his salary.

    Try to understand someone’s point before arguing so profusely against it. The back and forth is frustrating because you make no effort to understand what I am actually saying. You argue against points I never made.

  321. pete2 December 16th, 2013 at 4:53 pm

    I am surprised people think the Yankees are going to go over 189 for Tanaka when they seem hesitant to plug holes in the pen and IF with free agents or trades for players who will cost less. Obviously they should, but all signs point to 189 being a mandate and not just a goal.

    Why would a pitcher like Tanaka want to play for NY anyways given the projections? Especially with the way their IF and bullpen looks right now. Jeter and Nunez on the left side of the IF may be the worst defensive left side in MLB. Replacing Nunez with Reynolds or Arod is still pretty bad. How many saves and holds is the bullpen going to get for Tanaka?.

    As for Jeter, a lot of his offense is tied up in his ability to run. In 2012 he had 40 IF hits. Take away those 40 IF hits and his 2012 season is not so great. Also, a healthy Jeter had a -15 runs UZR at SS in 2012. Sobering when you consider Ryan was almost +15 in 2012. Is Jeter 30 runs better than Ryan offensively now? If they got Drew to agree to play 3B, dream on, is Jeter 20 runs better than Drew offensively?

    So Joe really has a tough decision if Jeter has lost a couple of steps. If he plays should he really be batting 2nd. Play SS or DH? Is his bat really good enough to be at DH if he can’t run? And how will a lesser Jeter impact Ellsbury? Will Ellsbury really be as effective without the protection he enjoyed in Boston. Lets face it, Jeter and Teixeira (2014) are not as dangerous as Pedroia and Ortiz who followed Ellsbury for most of his career with Boston Might be fewer pitches for Ellsbury to hit.

    If Jeter returns to 2012 form, no problem, but 2 yrs later at age 40 after a serious ankle injury cost him an entire year it does not seem possible. If not, and if Joe can’t make the tough decisions, well…………

  322. GregD December 16th, 2013 at 7:43 pm

    I wouldn’t trade Robertson, Claiborne or Kelley….they are the only three relievers with any ML experience…..the others are all suspects……if SD would have taken one of our minor league relievers then fine…..

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