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Rosenthal: Mariners need ownership to approve more spending

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 06, 2014 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

There has been a sense that the Mariners are serious contenders in the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes, but Ken Rosenthal reported this morning that the Seattle front office is still waiting for the green light from ownership in order to pursue another significant addition. That matters around here because both the Yankees and Mariners are clearly focused on pitching. Each team already has added offense — the Mariners by signing Robinson Cano, the Yankees by trying to replace him — which leaves the pitching market as their best chance to further upgrade.

Even if it’s not Tanaka — if Tanaka were to sign with the Dodgers, for example — the Mariners and Yankees could still compete for secondary options like Matt Garza or Ervin Santana. Whoever it is, these two teams are looking for pitching, and that makes them potential competition on the free agent market. If the Mariners aren’t committed to spending, that could make things a little easier for the Yankees.

That’s assuming, of course, the Yankees are willing to spend.

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136 Responses to “Rosenthal: Mariners need ownership to approve more spending”

  1. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 11:56 am

    “both parts of the pitching are worse currently.”

    Pitching is pitching. There’s no reason to double count pitching. You get the same innings out of your staff whether they come from the pen or the rotation.

    I also think that the rotation is maybe 1 win worse than last season, when you project Phelps and Pineda for full-time roles. The BP is largely a crap shoot for just about any team. I don’t think it’s as obvious as you’re making it out to be that the pitching staff is actually worse. If Pineda is fully recovered it could already be better.

    “they add a good starter and some bullpen help and I think they are ready to contend again good health permitting.”

    What’s that going to add to the team? Maybe 3 wins in ZIPs projections? I don’t think Oakland’s ZIPs are up yet, but Steamer and Oliver have him at 0.2 and 0.3 fWAR. He’s averaged about 0.9 or something the last three seasons. Tanaka has a lot of potential, but by all accounts is a mid-rotation guy and has no MLB experience. 2 fWAR is probably a generous projection and 3 wins would probably be very optimistic. Sure he could be better, but he could also be worse. Pineda could be a lot better than his projection as well. So could Sabathia. So could a lot of guys.

    Anyway, point is that if you’re going to hold the relationship between fWAR and team wins so close (assume it’s a direct 1-1 relationship), then those improvements don’t make them a playoff team either. You can just assume that they’re not a good team despite all the talent that they have, but I’m going to write that off to errors in fWAR that mean the relationship with team wins is not 1-1. (Look no further than historical results for proof.)

    (We should probably use the ZIPs to compare their relative talent level vs. the league. There are still problems with this and you’d have to adjust playing time, but I think that would make more sense than comparing ZIPs to pythagorean W-L.)

  2. blake January 6th, 2014 at 11:58 am

    January 6, 2014 at 11:56 am
    “i dont know where you get this ‘they should have won 79 games last year” from.

    on the one hand you are dismissing his argument that there is some statistical way to determine what a team ‘should do’ then you keep referring back to what ‘they should have done last year.’”

    http://pinstripepundits.com/20…..nners.html

    Look what I mean is that whether you believe the numbers or your eyes….I think it’s pretty clear the yanks were lucky to win 85 games last year.

    All there is this time of year is “on paper”…..that doesn’t always line up with real life but if your buildings a team all you can do is build it the best on paper you can and then see what happens

  3. AAA January 6th, 2014 at 11:59 am

    What team’s front office doesn’t need ownership approval for another significant addition? This seems much ado about nothing unless/until the owner actually says no. Cashman can’t make another significant addition without Hal’s approval, right?

  4. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:00 pm

    What’s that going to add to the team? Maybe 3 wins in ZIPs projections? I don’t think Oakland’s ZIPs are up yet, but Steamer and Oliver have him at 0.2 and 0.3 fWAR. He’s averaged about 0.9 or something the last three seasons. Tanaka has a lot of potential, but by all accounts is a mid-rotation guy and has no MLB experience. 2 fWAR is probably a generous projection and 3 wins would probably be very optimistic. Sure he could be better, but he could also be worse. Pineda could be a lot better than his projection as well. So could Sabathia. So could a lot of guys.”

    You’re totally discounting how depth affects a rotation and bullpen over the course of a season…..adding up fWAR is fine but it doesn’t tell the whole story

  5. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:01 pm

    Go away mariners…..nobody cares about you

  6. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:02 pm

    “Ys,
    I agree that the rotation “could” be ok if a lot of things break right…..there are just too many ifs for my taste though right now.”

    ————–

    What needs to break right? Things just need to go as expected for the rotation to be just fine: their top 3 guys all project for 3 fWAR and their #4 and 5 project for about 2 and 1.5 fWAR in full seasons. They also have decent depth (at least replacement level).

    “They should have won 79 games last year and Pineda? Come on…..”

    ————————–

    Again… we are not talking about team W-L. We’re talking about fWAR. There is not a 1-1 relationship between the two. ZIPs is not going to predict team W-L compared to their pythagorean W-L from last season. It doesn’t claim to do that. We can get an idea for the talent level on a team, though.

  7. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:03 pm

    FWAR again doesn’t tell you everything…..it’s a guesstimate.

    If CC isn’t better they are in trouble

  8. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 12:04 pm

    I hope Pineda absolutely kills it next year but I’ll believe that he can even be decent next year when I see it. Even if he can be a mid rotation type guy going forward it would be a nice shot in the arm for the Yanks. Same goes for Banuelos and Ramirez although either of them making an immediate impact is highly unlikely. The only way Ramirez makes an impact right away is if they move him to the BP which hopefully does not happen.

  9. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 12:04 pm

    that link took me to the 2012 alcs preview (prediction: yankees in 7!)

  10. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    “All there is this time of year is “on paper”…..that doesn’t always line up with real life but if your buildings a team all you can do is build it the best on paper you can and then see what happens”

    —————————

    So stop confusing pythagorean from last season with projections for individual players for next season. It is hurting your argument. Not helping it.

  11. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    I doubt the yanks are very comfortable with this rotation either…:whether or not they can fix it may depend on Hal

  12. Hankflorida January 6th, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    I am back to the fact that the Yankees won in 2012 without and Mo and with a starting staff of CC, Kuroda, Nova, Pettitte and Garcia. Without Tanaka, they have Warren, Phelps, Pineda and Nuno to compete for two spots in the rotation. I think that this team as situated today will keep us in the hunt down to the wire, and with a little luck, Wildcards can lead to the ring.

  13. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:06 pm

    “FWAR again doesn’t tell you everything…..it’s a guesstimate.”

    ——————————–

    Are you actually reading my comments? I’ve made that same point several times now. You’re talking right past my comments.

  14. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:06 pm

    “So stop confusing pythagorean from last season with projections for individual players for next season. It is hurting your argument. Not helping it.”

    It’s related if we are talking about if they are better than last year or not …..which we are

  15. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:08 pm

    Ted if you think they are better fine…..I think they need to address the rotation and bullpen to really be better overall.

  16. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 12:09 pm

    “If CC isn’t better they are in trouble”
    =============================
    idk if i agree with that anymore. they won 85 games with cc pitching the way he did for 32 starts. if he pitches the same and they upgrade from pettitte (tanaka/santana) and hughes (phelps) then they can be a better team with no improvement from cc.

    and if he needs to be replace, those #’s from last year (4.78 era, 1.37 whip, 9.6H/9, 1.2HR/9) arent that hard to replace.

  17. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    And ” better than last year” may not cut it unless the improvement is significant because they weren’t very good last year

  18. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    “idk if i agree with that anymore. they won 85 games with cc pitching the way he did for 32 starts. if he pitches the same and they upgrade from pettitte (tanaka/santana) and hughes (phelps) then they can be a better team with no improvement from cc.”

    Lucky to win 85 though

  19. AAA January 6th, 2014 at 12:11 pm

    I am back to the fact that the Yankees won in 2012 without and Mo and with a starting staff of CC, Kuroda, Nova, Pettitte and Garcia.

    =======================================

    Difference between the 2012 and 2013 Yankees was offense, not pitching.

    2012 Yankees pitched to a 3.85 ERA and allowed 4.12 runs per game. 2013 team put forth a 3.94 ERA and 4.14 runs allowed per game.

    Big problem was the offense, which lost nearly entire run. The 2012 “Too Many Homers” team averaged 4.96 runs per game while hitting a whopping 245 bombs. The 2013 edition was good for 4.01 runs per game while hitting a Royal-esque 144 homers.

  20. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:12 pm

    “You’re totally discounting how depth affects a rotation and bullpen over the course of a season…..adding up fWAR is fine but it doesn’t tell the whole story”

    —————————————-

    Again, never said it tells you the whole story. It’s an objective, quantitative look at the talent level on a team. That’s what I’m discussing here. You are the one who keeps bringing up team win totals. I keep asking you to stop doing that. That’s not what ZIPs is meant for. In the past they’ve tried to do that, but are now advising against that because it doesn’t actually work.

    As an objective, quantitative look at the team’s talent, though, it tells us more than just subjectively mentioning depth. ZIPs does capture depth, though.

  21. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 12:12 pm

    pythagorean w/l is a backward looking stat that takes one set of statistics (runs for and against) and tries to use it to explain another set of statistics (wins and losses).

    personally i think bill james invented it to explain away inaccuracies in his predictive statistical analysis.

  22. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 12:15 pm

    i dont agree with passing off what happened as luck.
    if you want to go there, then with good luck (a healthy tex, jeter and granderson) they should have won more games.

  23. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:15 pm

    “It’s related if we are talking about if they are better than last year or not …..which we are”

    There’s a lose relationship. It’s apples and oranges, though. They’re both fruit, but still not the same thing and you can’t just compare them straight up. I am tired of explaining this to you and just urge that you look into it on your own. I believe that fangraphs issued an explicit warning not to use ZIPs for team wins this season. This is not something I am making up. It’s not what ZIPs is meant to do.

  24. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:16 pm

    *loose relationship

  25. YankeeNiner January 6th, 2014 at 12:17 pm

    I believe the Yankees have a $189 MM plan that is as simple as this: If A-Rod is suspended for at least 162 and they get Tanaka, they can be under $189 MM. If A-Rod is not suspended for a full season, they blow up the $189 MM plan and they will outbid everyone for Tanaka. They may not get Tanaka, but that is the only pitcher they covet.
    If no Tanaka, they will trade Gardner for a pitcher.

  26. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 12:17 pm

    If the Yanks went into the season with this pitching staff… Are you really comfortable?

    CC – Kuroda – Nova – Pineda – Phelps

    Drob – Kelley – Thornton – Betances – Claiborne – Cabral – Warren

    Just my opinion of course but to me that is a recipe for disaster.

  27. Wave Your Hat January 6th, 2014 at 12:17 pm

    I am missing the argument here. The Yanks have a net improvement of 2 fWAR over last year.

    “So what” jumps to mind.

  28. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:19 pm

    There’s a lose relationship. It’s apples and oranges, though. They’re both fruit, but still not the same thing and you can’t just compare them straight up. I am tired of explaining this to you and just urge that you look into it on your own. I believe that fangraphs issued an explicit warning not to use ZIPs for team wins this season. This is not something I am making up. It’s not what ZIPs is meant to do.”

    I know what you’re talking about….you don’t have to explain it. You’re the one that takes comments and turns them into long winded debates based on projections. Again if you think the pitching is ok that’s fine…..I disagree and think the pitching is currently offsetting any offensive improvements they have made

  29. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:20 pm

    i dont agree with passing off what happened as luck.
    if you want to go there, then with good luck (a healthy tex, jeter and granderson) they should have won more games.”

    I don’t know if it was luck….it was a bunch of intangible stuff though that you can’t count on happening again

  30. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:21 pm

    “Difference between the 2012 and 2013 Yankees was offense, not pitching.”

    Good point.

    “And ” better than last year” may not cut it unless the improvement is significant because they weren’t very good last year”

    This conversation started out talking about better than last year. I have made very limited comments about how many games they will win this year or how good they will be. You have expanded the scope of the conversation, but I haven’t really gone there with you. I commented specifically on something that you said about whether the gains make up for the losses in net terms.

  31. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 12:24 pm

    i dont see a recipe for disaster. i think we all assume they will add a starter approximately the caliber of what they got last year from pettitte, be that tanaka santana or ubaldo.

    the top 3 are the same guys.

    so an upgrade from hughes makes it an improved rotation, imo.

    this group has the potential to be better than last year and because of a greater # of possibilities in the rotation is more likely to reach that potential than last year.

    but id still bring in another starter.

    the weakness is the bridge to drob, imo. i’d like to see another lefty and a set up guy brought in.

  32. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:27 pm

    “I disagree and think the pitching is currently offsetting any offensive improvements they have made”

    And I asked you what evidence you’re using as a basis for that position. I still haven’t seen any evidence. Just a lot of twisting around the argument.

    “I know what you’re talking about….you don’t have to explain it.”

    Then why do you keep conflating ZIPs and team wins?

    “You’re the one that takes comments and turns them into long winded debates based on projections.”

    What other evidence do you suppose we use? We are talking about projections for 2014, I didn’t introduce that topic. I asked for the reasoning behind your own projections. All you said was that Two of their guys retired and one is a year older. You did nothing to compare that to their replacements or the gains made elsewhere. I used ZIPs because it is maybe the most respected publicly available way to do exactly that in an objective manner.

  33. J. Alfred Prufrock January 6th, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    The only way Ramirez makes an impact right away is if they move him to the BP which hopefully does not happen.
    ///

    I am very concerned about this very thing re Jo-Ram, because there has been institutional chatter here and there that the Yankees project him as a BP arm because he lacks stamina (I am paraphrasing).

    They were also concerned about the slider being inconsistent as a 3rd pitch but from where I sit (and have sat during Ramirez starts, beginning with Lakewood in 2010), he has enough variety of fastball (in terms of movement, sink and also late “rising” life; in terms of location to both sides and up and down) and the deadly changeup to not be overly concerned with his “3rd pitch”, which is good enough to bring out of his pocket any way.

    If they hold him back with that mechanical “has to have 3rd pitch” meme, then they are certifiable, considering how dominant he can be. He did have command issues in AAA, but that might have been because of the oblique bothering him; hopefully, he is past that heading into 2014.

    I can’t remember if you said or no, that you had seen Ramirez pitch while he was in Trenton? I’m just hoping with Patterson getting say-so, they don’t foolishly scuttle such a promising starter for said whispers I have heard attributed to Yankee DM, on paid sites.

    I also don’t see why they would not just give shots to some of the miLB big arms they have when it comes to 2014 BP. There’s the least amount of risk in seeing what guys like Burawa may have (he has command issues, but he was another guy with oblique issues and he went on a run to finish 2013 that was very impressive).

    You wouldn’t mind if they wanted to get a projectable starter some exposure out of the pen if they were some other organization, but if that guy has success (and why wouldn’t an arm like Ramirez have success with his stuff out of the pen) the Yankees begin to get tunnel vision, ala Joba Chamberlain.

    Just give a Burawa type a chance, and see where it goes. They did this in 2009 with the pen (Aceves, Robertson, Phil down the stretch to secure the division, Coke, Joba, to complement what Marte and Mariano were doing).

    Ramirez should be left alone to continue to build arm strength and evolve his slider.

  34. Blojaldo January 6th, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    Regarding Chad’s comment, “That’s assuming, of course, the Yankees are willing to spend.”

    I think that Hal and the Yankees have gone public with that posture this winter with the signings of Ellsbury, Beltran and McCann to the tune of almost $300 million dollars and their willingness to leave $189 fading from sight in the rear view mirror.

    I can’t imagine why they would have made what is obviously a substantive commitment to win with the bat and then decide not to continue that investment in pitching. I just can’t see them doing that.

  35. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 12:30 pm

    but id still bring in another starter.

    the weakness is the bridge to drob, imo. i’d like to see another lefty and a set up guy brought in.
    ——————
    To it it’s a possible disaster if they don’t do these things, especially the BP.

    What happens in a tight game when Drob is unavailable because he threw 30 pitchers on back to back nights… Kelley closing with Claiborne and Betances setting him up?

    Imagine if they went into the year with this BP and Drob missed a month? Disaster

    What happens when Kuroda misses a month? Your going to have Pineda + Phelps + Nuno all in the rotation for a month?

    To me it would be insane for the Yankees to spend all of that money on Ellsbury/Beltran/McCann and not bolster the pitching staff.

    There are far too many questions on this pitching staff to stop here and not at another good starter and at least 1 (if not 2) back end BP arms… How do account for question marks? Depth.

  36. DaSaint007 January 6th, 2014 at 12:32 pm

    ARod gets 65 days.

    Sign Tanaka
    Sign Balfour
    Sign Johan Santana to a 1 yr guaranteed contract and stash him in the Minors with an invite to ST.
    Trade Ichiro or Wells+ for Jed Lowrie for 3B/SS. No, I’m not convinced about Drew.

  37. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 12:32 pm

    I can’t remember if you said or no, that you had seen Ramirez pitch while he was in Trenton?
    ————–
    I didn’t unfortunately… Completely agree though, it would be a waste to convert him to the BP.

  38. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:33 pm

    “And I asked you what evidence you’re using as a basis for that position. I still haven’t seen any evidence. Just a lot of twisting around the argument.”

    Losing Pettite and Mo….they haven’t replaced them yet….don’t know how more clearly to say that. Riveras presence at the back of the pen was more than just about his fwar….Pettites in the rotation as well.

  39. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:37 pm

    Ted,
    Projections aren’t “evidence” for anything….how about good ole intuition.

    You kept telling me everything was fine back I July when I said the team wasn’t good enough and advised that they sell…..you based it on projections and fWAR etc…..sometimes you need to just use some logic and look at what’s staring you in the face and not overthink things

  40. Blojaldo January 6th, 2014 at 12:38 pm

    DaSaint007 January 6th, 2014 at 12:32 pm
    “Trade Ichiro or Wells+ for Jed Lowrie for 3B/SS…”

    The 29 year old Lowrie that hit .290 with a .344 OBP 175 hits and 15 home runs? You’re serious?

  41. Wave Your Hat January 6th, 2014 at 12:39 pm

    At this point the Yanks have a lot more downside risk than upside potential, IMO, so they would be wise to bolster the pitching staff as much as possible.

  42. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:40 pm

    “Ramirez should be left alone to continue to build arm strength and evolve his slider.”

    He’s about to turn 24, I don’t think that it’s a matter of arm strength. He just gets hurt every season. They’ve been “leaving him alone” for years and he can’t break that 100 IP plateau. I don’t think that moving him to the pen would be because he doesn’t have the stuff to start, just trying to get the most value out of him at the MLB level.

    Also, moving a SP to the pen is hardly the kiss of death. I can list dozens of successful MLB SPs who spent time in the BP early in their careers. Just this past season maybe the most respected organization in baseball right now did it with two of their top SP prospects in Rosenthal and Martinez.

    “Just give a Burawa type a chance, and see where it goes. They did this in 2009 with the pen (Aceves, Robertson, Phil down the stretch to secure the division, Coke, Joba, to complement what Marte and Mariano were doing).”

    I think Ramirez is much, much more comparable to any of the 5 Ps that you mentioned than Dan Burawa. Maybe Coke and possibly Aceves, but I think you’re severally overrating Burawa or underrating Hughes, Joba, and Robertson. Giving a Burawa type a chance would probably be more roughly equivalent to Claiborne in 2013. Not similar Ps, but arguably similar talent levels.

  43. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 12:41 pm

    Regarding Betances… I like Betances, I saw what he did in the BP in the minors last year, he was absolutely lights out. I think Betances might turn into a reliable back end arm, maybe even a dominant one. That being said, I also saw his extremely rocky outings at the end of last year (unfortunately not much of a sample.) I would go into this year not counting at all from Betances in the Yankee BP. Anything he gives you should be a bonus.

  44. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:41 pm

    Wave Your Hat says:
    January 6, 2014 at 12:39 pm
    At this point the Yanks have a lot more downside risk than upside potential, IMO, so they would be wise to bolster the pitching staff as much as possible.

    Agreed….

  45. Hankflorida January 6th, 2014 at 12:43 pm

    AAA, agree with you that 2012 compared to 2013 was offense, and the question now becomes how close is the 2014 team to the 2012 team in offense as the pitching statistics between those teams may not differ that much. Adding McCaan, Beltran, Roberts, Soriano and Ellsbury has to produce the runs that we’re lost in subtracting Cano, Martin, Granderson, Ibanez and Swisher. Without Tanaka, the 2014 pitching doesnt look that different then the 2012 team without Mo.

  46. J. Alfred Prufrock January 6th, 2014 at 12:43 pm

    pk,

    particularly because they have multiple MilB options, although it’s unfortunate that Kanhle is gone. Burawa, though, is similar and I like him better anyhow when he is throwing “strikes,” since he’s able to keep it on the ground as well as blow the ball by you.

  47. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:46 pm

    “Projections aren’t “evidence” for anything….how about good ole intuition.”

    Not sure if you’re serious.

    “You kept telling me everything was fine back I July when I said the team wasn’t good enough and advised that they sell…..you based it on projections and fWAR etc…..sometimes you need to just use some logic and look at what’s staring you in the face and not over think things”

    Really? Even if we accept this example 100%, it’s one example. Gloating that you were *possibly* right about one thing isn’t evidence to abandon reason in favor of your gut. The Yankees were in the playoff race down to the wire, they had bad luck with injuries well after July, and we have no idea what they would have gotten in a sell-off… so it’s far from clear whether you are even right or wrong here.

  48. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:48 pm

    “Not sure if you’re serious.”

    Do you think front offices make decisions soley by reading fangraphs pages? They don’t…..

  49. blake January 6th, 2014 at 12:52 pm

    “Really? Even if we accept this example 100%, it’s one example. Gloating that you were *possibly* right about one thing isn’t evidence to abandon reason in favor of your gut. The Yankees were in the playoff race down to the wire, they had bad luck with injuries well after July, and we have no idea what they would have gotten in a sell-off… so it’s far from clear whether you are even right or wrong here.”

    I’m not gloating…..I’m trying to get you to think outside of your metrics sometimes. Sometimes the answer is more simple than it may seem…..the yanks rotation last year hit a wall in the 2nd half…..they have subtracted their #3 starter and everyone else is a year older…..try have also lost the greatest closer ever and haven’t replaced him. It’s not complicated…..they need a starter and another reliever

  50. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 12:55 pm

    They need a dependable, experienced late inning pitcher. Kelley is iffy. Clairborne is iffy. All the guys in AAA are iffy. The guys in the minors could turn out well, but they need to show that in the 6th and 7th.

    Five hundred innings are needed from the pen. We need help.

  51. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    “Do you think front offices make decisions soley by reading fangraphs pages? They don’t…..”

    No, they have much better statistical analysis in all likelihood. The Yankees have a statistical analysis department of 14 people.
    They also supplement that with the opinions of dozens of professional scouts, a top notch medical team, probably sports psychiatrists, etc.

    If I really have to explain this to you… the issue with your intuition is that it’s the subjective opinion of one fan. There’s no track record to look at. Your intuition may say that Pineda will never pitch in MLB again. Mine might say that he’s 100%. There’s very little evidence behind either opinion and no way to really compare them. We can just sit here and agree to disagree, or we can look at historical results for similar situations to project what is likely to happen. ZIPs and other projections are a simple way to do that. Of course I would rather have more information about the sample distribution than simply the mean (which is all that these projections gives you). I’ll take the mean over some random guy’s gut, though. Even if that guy is me.

  52. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 12:59 pm

    The Yankees were never good enough last year. To think otherwise one must not have looked at a box score. AROD and Jeter were never going to perform as they’re previously did. That left them with Cano, Gardner and the seven dwarves.

  53. J. Alfred Prufrock January 6th, 2014 at 12:59 pm

    Also, moving a SP to the pen is hardly the kiss of death. I can list dozens of successful MLB SPs who spent time in the BP early in their careers. Just this past season maybe the most respected organization in baseball right now did it with two of their top SP prospects in Rosenthal and Martinez.
    ///

    PRETTY SURE I SAID IF THE TEAM WAS NOT THE YANKEES, I wouldn’t be against giving a projectable starter some turns in the BP, which pretty much makes this response unnecessary.

    “Just give a Burawa type a chance, and see where it goes. They did this in 2009 with the pen (Aceves, Robertson, Phil down the stretch to secure the division, Coke, Joba, to complement what Marte and Mariano were doing).”

    I think Ramirez is much, much more comparable to any of the 5 Ps that you mentioned than Dan Burawa. Maybe Coke and possibly Aceves, but I think you’re severally overrating Burawa or underrating Hughes, Joba, and Robertson. Giving a Burawa type a chance would probably be more roughly equivalent to Claiborne in 2013. Not similar Ps, but arguably similar talent levels.

    I DIDN’T UNDER RATE CHAMBERLAIN, THE YANKEES DID. How am I severely over rating Burawa? To come in and throw a few pitches for an inning or two? He throws 95-98 with some sink and when he’s around the plate, he gets outs. If he can’t find the plate, then that’s another story, but he cut his BB rates over 30 percent in the second half and was coming off an oblique injury and missed 2012, and he just shuts down RHB. It’s a really good sign he pitched so well down the stretch. He’s an option for the BP. He’s not a journeyman in his 30s.

  54. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:01 pm

    .” I’ll take the mean over some random guy’s gut, though. Even if that guy is me.”

    Statistics are great….but they need to line up with common sense or they aren’t as meaningful. It’s one tool to look at…..you need to look at everything

  55. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:02 pm

    How will Pineda do this year? I have no idea. He could pitch an effective 150 innings or he could miss the year or anything in between. Relying on him is foolish. Hoping for him is appropriate.

    I have no problem leaving the fifth spot open for competition. Leaving two spots open is suicidal for a playoff chance.

  56. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 1:05 pm

    On a side note… This weather is nuts…. It was 60 when I got up around 8 this morning… We’re already down to 37… Supposed to get down to 5 degrees tonight… You don’t see a 55 degree drop in temps in around a 12 hour time frame too often in NJ.

    Glad I am “working” from home today… Be careful those who will be driving home from work this evening… Roads are going to be super slick after all this rain and rapid temp drop.

  57. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:07 pm

    Marchand just,said Horowitz can decide today or a month from now. I thought he had 25 days from the due date of the briefs. Heck, maybe he’ll rule before the season starts.

    The Yankees keep waiting before they act, it seems. Will they act on Tanaka or anyone else without a ruling?

  58. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:07 pm

    The Arod decision might come down before the end of time…..maybe

  59. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:09 pm

    “I’m not gloating…..I’m trying to get you to think outside of your metrics sometimes. Sometimes the answer is more simple than it may seem…..the yanks rotation last year hit a wall in the 2nd half…..they have subtracted their #3 starter and everyone else is a year older…..try have also lost the greatest closer ever and haven’t replaced him. It’s not complicated…..they need a starter and another reliever”

    If you really think that your opinions are fact, I don’t know what to tell you. I guess please get over yourself. I can tell you why I think your opinions are wrong, but I prefer to use what you call my metrics because they are objective. They are based on historical evidence. They are already quantified for us. It seems like a much better way to discuss an issue than to go back and forth about our random beliefs.

    Yours is not even a well-thought out opinion, though. Again, you are not discussing that they gained at all. All of your arguments are questionable.

    -Kuroda hit a wall in the second half in 2012, too. And he was good as ever in 2013.
    -They lost Pettitte, but gained Pineda and Banuelos. They also lost Hughes, who stunk.
    -Everyone in the world is a year older. That’s not an argument that means anything. For all of their young Ps, being a year older may be a good thing if we’re forced to think in such simple terms. We’re talking about the majority of their staff, by the way, that should get better by being a year older. Majority of their rotation as it stands and the majority of their pen. This argument seems to hurt your point, not help it.
    -They lost Rivera in 2012, too. Let’s see what they do to replace him before deciding that they haven’t. They have a lot of internal BP options.

  60. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:12 pm

    If you really think that your opinions are fact, I don’t know what to tell you. I guess please get over yourself. I can tell you why I think your opinions are wrong, but I prefer to use what you call my metrics because they are objective. They are based on historical evidence. They are already quantified for us. It seems like a much better way to discuss an issue than to go back and forth about our random beliefs.”

    That’s not what I said at all….actually it was a point to show you that YOUR opinions aren’t facts just because they are based off of statistics

  61. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:13 pm

    Claiborne had a 6.53 ERA after the all star break and Kelley’s was 5.68. These are the late inning pitchers? Not on a decent team they’re not.

    Our internal options are questionable at best. Let’s hope they know and are willing to do something about it. I’m not holding my breath.

  62. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:13 pm

    I’m not always right….but my opinions are always thought out

  63. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:15 pm

    Have to go….stay warm everyone…..even you Ted :)

  64. DaSaint007 January 6th, 2014 at 1:18 pm

    Blojaldo January 6th, 2014 at 12:38 pm
    DaSaint007 January 6th, 2014 at 12:32 pm
    “Trade Ichiro or Wells+ for Jed Lowrie for 3B/SS…”

    The 29 year old Lowrie that hit .290 with a .344 OBP 175 hits and 15 home runs? You’re serious?
    ———————–
    I can dream, can’t I. We dream about everything else.

  65. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 6th, 2014 at 1:20 pm

    Just popping in to say that though baseball is my number 1 sports passion, I absolutely FLIP OUT OVER, ENTHRALL TO, LOVE LOVE LOVE the Winter Olympics!!! Wish it were on more than every 4 years. Yesterday I watched the US Speed Skating trials. I also saw a special on figure skating and gymnastics, and let me tell you the US men’s gymnastics team is OMG amazing. Phenomenal!

    That is all.

    GO YANKEES!

    :)

  66. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:20 pm

    Ted,

    Neither Banuelos or Pineda have pitched in nearly two years. Yet, they will replace Pettitte? It is more likely they will both be at SWB.

    The pen has one good pitcher. Sure, every Yankee could exceed expectations. I prefer to love in reality. Reality is the team is at least a starter and solid reliever from being adequate

  67. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:21 pm

    –live–

  68. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:22 pm

    “How will Pineda do this year?’

    How will Tanaka do? He’s never pitched in MLB and was called a mid-rotation candidate before the hype-machine took over.

    How will Santana and Ubaldo do? They’ve both been terrible as recently as 2012. Like Hughes level.

    How will Garza do? He’s been pretty mediocre lately.

    I don’t think that the trade-off between “filling” a spot and leaving it “open” is as great as you’re making it out to be. Certainly it would help to have more options, but at the same time locking in a rotation spot can mean committing to an AJ Burnett or Javy Vazquez without much recourse. Leaving it open can free up resources for acquire someone later and it can allow you to try a few guys.

    Ultimately I think that they’ll add someone, and my guess is Tanaka. At the same time, I don’t think that the situation is dire right now.

  69. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:24 pm

    “The pen has one good pitcher. Sure, every Yankee could exceed expectations. I prefer to love in reality. Reality is the team is at least a starter and solid reliever from being adequate”

    No, that’s your opinion.

    I am not asking anyone to exceed expectations. Projections are expectations. I am looking at what will happen if everyone exactly hits expectations.

  70. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 1:27 pm

    Just saw a commercial on YES for the Yankee Hot Stove show… Main focus of the commercial was the “Tanaka Sweepstakes” and posing the question, will Tanaka be the next great Yankee pitcher?… The Yankees pretty much control the content on YES, right (or at least heavily influence)? Is it too much of a reach to say that YES would likely not be pushing such Tanaka heavy commercials if the Yankees did not fully expect to sign him? Just a thought anyway.

  71. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:29 pm

    “That’s not what I said at all….actually it was a point to show you that YOUR opinions aren’t facts just because they are based off of statistics”

    That’s what it came across as.

    ZIPs projections aren’t my opinions. Not sure why you think that they are.

  72. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:30 pm

    Yes, that is my opinion. Future performance is always filled with opinion even projections.

    Clairborne looked like that had figured out his FB, slider combo. Kelley has a slider. Lay off and he has little. Thornton has declined. They need more solid options. I don’t see how that is reasonably arguable even by one who wants to do little more than argue.

  73. Vince January 6th, 2014 at 1:30 pm

    I completely agree the Yankees are one starter (front end) and one reliever (late inning) from competing. Some have said two starters but if you slate Kuroda, CC, ____, Nova and the assortment of fifth candidate arms the Yankees have, with the improvement in offense, it’s good to go.

    Add a late inning trio of D Rob, ___, Kelly along with some of the other arms back there and the bullpen is going to be top 15.

  74. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:31 pm

    “I’m not always right….but my opinions are always thought out”

    I don’t know why you would make an absolute statement like that, but I’m pretty sure that I showed you point by point why your opinion was not well thought out in this case.

  75. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:32 pm

    “I don’t see how that is reasonably arguable even by one who wants to do little more than argue.”

    That’s the problem.

  76. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:33 pm

    Pkyankfan,

    The ad probably had more to do with ratings than inside knowledge. We can grab hope wherever we find it though.

  77. RadioKev January 6th, 2014 at 1:34 pm

    I’m not sure what the pitching argument is over. Everyone agrees the Yankees need to add pitching, yes?

    Also you cannot reasonably account for Phelps/Pineda projections over a full season. In all likelihood Phelps won’t go a full season, and there’s some reason to question if Pineda can too. The Yankees need at least one more starter for anyone to feel good about that rotation. The remaining guys, CC/Nova/Kuroda were all inconsistent last season.

    And who are the bullpen arms? Outside of Robertson it’s a staff of wildcards. I guess we have Matt Thorton’s veteran presence.

  78. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:35 pm

    Yes, that is the problem. And by the way, no one but you thinks you showed Blake anything. Same as it ever was.

  79. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 1:38 pm

    Kev,

    Most of us agree. Some seem to think Pineda and Banuelos along with unknown minor leaguers will overachieve solving all problems.

    Personally, I completely agree with you.

  80. tomingeorgia January 6th, 2014 at 1:38 pm

    The world needs more humorless nerds, doesn’t it?

  81. Mordot11 January 6th, 2014 at 1:39 pm

    Is there a sense of when a Tanaka deal is going to get done? Do people seem to think it’s going to be on the last day of negotiations or is there a feeling that if he gets the right offer he’ll jump on it?

  82. RadioKev January 6th, 2014 at 1:42 pm

    Mordot11 January 6th, 2014 at 1:39 pm
    Is there a sense of when a Tanaka deal is going to get done? Do people seem to think it’s going to be on the last day of negotiations or is there a feeling that if he gets the right offer he’ll jump on it?
    ————

    What I’ve read is that it will go down to the wire, a few days before the Jan 24 deadline. Both parties will need a few days to do the physical and make it official. We’re still a few weeks away.

  83. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:46 pm

    “Yes, that is the problem. And by the way, no one but you thinks you showed Blake anything. Same as it ever was.”

    Why are you trying to speak for every anonymous commenter on a blog?

    I assume that they will add more depth throughout the roster before ST as we’re not that much more than half way through the off-season, but I don’t think that the current situation is as dire as you do. I think that reliable RPs are fairly easy to come by in ways other than top FAs. Since the Yankees have passed on virtually every high profile RP other than Thornton, they seem to agree. That I don’t know exactly who the set-up men will be doesn’t mean that they can’t piece together a BP. Pointing to second half declines by two RPs doesn’t change that.

    The problem that I was talking about is the frame of reference you’re using. If you only look at a couple of guys–Claiborne and Kelley–I don’t completely disagree. (Especially Claiborne. At the same time, I don’t agree that the second half is more predictive than the first half.) In doing so, though, you are excluding more of the internal candidates. You’ve got guys who lose out on rotation spots and at least a half dozen MLB ready prospects who are candidates for BP roles.

  84. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 1:48 pm

    “Some seem to think Pineda and Banuelos along with unknown minor leaguers will overachieve solving all problems.”

    Who thinks this exactly? I don’t see anyone arguing that.

    Phelps and Warren aren’t exactly unknown minor leaguers. And I didn’t expect a single person to outperform their projections at any point.

    Please stop making things up just to start fights.

  85. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:54 pm

    “ZIPs projections aren’t my opinions. Not sure why you think that they are.”

    Because you treat their projections as fact when you give your opinion……

    There is a ton of risk on the Yankees roster….if you project everything out as best case scenario then it might make you feel better but chances are you will be disappointed …..

  86. blake January 6th, 2014 at 1:59 pm

    Bottom like from all of this…..I think they need to do more to their pitching staff to truly improve the club. You can’t just sit there and hope Andy and Mo are replaced internally by unproven kids….:especially when there is so much risk in the other rotation spots

  87. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 2:06 pm

    I admit I don’t put much stock into all these sabermetric projections but if the Yankees don’t bring in another starter based on these ZIPs projections they are SCREWED

    Kuroda – 3.74 ERA – 178 IP
    CC – 4.03 ERA – 196 IP
    Nova 3.98 ERA – 165 IP
    Phelps 4.51 ERA – 101 IP
    Pineda 4.65 ERA – 81 IP
    Warren 4.64 ERA – 77 IP
    Banuelos 5.79 ERA – 28 IP

  88. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:09 pm

    Any projection for Pineda and Banuelos is a total and complete guess…..

  89. austinmac January 6th, 2014 at 2:11 pm

    Ok. Let’s see. Anyone who thinks Ted refuted Blake’s points, chime in.

  90. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:14 pm

    It’s even too cold for me to BBQ today ….that’s cold

  91. Mottsx January 6th, 2014 at 2:17 pm

    Could always throw a nice BBQ Brisket in the slow cooker indoor style.

  92. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 2:18 pm

    i have to agree with ted on this, moving a SP to the pen is not the kiss of death, in fact it used to be just a part of the process of becoming a SP.

    ive posted several times before all the great pitchers who have started out in the bp including bob gibson, nolan ryan and ron guidry.

    im so sick of this ‘they’re gonna ruin him’ stuff. here’s the freakin ball, there’s the freakin catcher and that guy with the stick wants to hit the ball, now get that guy out.

    i understand pitch development and all that but facing major league hitters is ultimately what decides if you’re a major league pitcher or not.

    id rather keep the best arms as starters, but as soon as you have enough of them, put the rest of the best arms in the pen. get guys out all ballgame long, quit babying these guys.

    if they can help this team and they have the stuff to pitch in the majors, put them in the pen and have them pitch to major league hitters and lets see what they have.

  93. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    Mottsx says:
    January 6, 2014 at 2:17 pm
    Could always throw a nice BBQ Brisket in the slow cooker indoor style.

    Could…..ain’t BBQ if you do it inside though. I been wanting to try this fried babybacks recipe I have though

  94. Against All Odds January 6th, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    moving a SP to the pen is not the kiss of death

    —————–

    It is with this franchise.

  95. yankeefeminista January 6th, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    mac, you can’t really categorize Claiborne as unable to fulfill the late inning job based on a second half ERA unless you qualify it. He lost between 1.5 and 2 mph on both his 4-seamer and sinker. If it was fatigue and he regains velo, he may be quite useful. If not, then I agree his stuff won’t play in the pen. I’m hopeful he’ll get the velo back though.

    Pruf, second half Burawa was a stud. Again it is all about control with him, and he seemed to find something mechanically second half. Here’s hoping it lasts.

  96. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:20 pm

    “i have to agree with ted on this, moving a SP to the pen is not the kiss of death, in fact it used to be just a part of the process of becoming a SP.”

    I didn’t get into any of that…..all I said is that I thought they needed to do more work on the rotation to really prove and also add an experienced and proven reliever

  97. yankeefeminista January 6th, 2014 at 2:20 pm

    Odds, QFT.

  98. bigdan22 January 6th, 2014 at 2:21 pm

    The metrics that have been developed and utilized since the Abstract have been extremely useful and changed and improved the way we look at the game. I believe that of all those metrics, projections are the least useful, especially when team-building. I think they can provide value for anticipating performance for a player in his prime who’s established a benchmark. In the old days, we used to call that “the back of the baseball card.” But when trying to project someone who’s never played or played very little on a ML level (Banuelos, Nuno), or someone coming back from a major injury (Pineda), or someone at the backend of their career or coming off an uncharacteristically bad year because of possible injury (Kuroda, CC), I think there are way too many variables and assumptions built into the calculations to render them very useful.

    But whatever approach you take, the Yankee bullpen is still a mess.

  99. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:21 pm

    I think Betances is right where he should be and hope he can contribute this year

  100. Tackelberry January 6th, 2014 at 2:21 pm

    I’d be surprised if the Tanaka negotiations don’t go down to the last day. As for Pineda and Banuelos, who knows? I would suspect that both Pineda and Banuelos would remain in Tampa for EXT ST when the Yanks break camp in order to protect their arms from the early season cold weather. Hopefully, Pineda can join the team in May. I would expect ManBam to spend most of the year at Scranton, since he missed a full year of development. Maybe by August he could be ready to help the big league club. Thats why we really need to get Tanaka

  101. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 2:21 pm

    ive mentioned this before too, keep rotating your ‘long man’ down to start in scranton every few weeks.
    you have options, use them. keep them stretched out so that they can either start or contribute out of the pen. then send them back down and bring up the next guy. the long man is mopping up lost causes most of the time so the small upgrade/downgrade you might have between one guy and the next isnt work letting one of your young starters atrophy as the year goes on.

  102. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:23 pm

    As I’ve said before the problem with the pen for me isn’t Robertson closing….it’s that if he closes you have no set up guy. If they bring in Balfour then Robertson can set up and suddenly you have a good back end duo and Betances, Kelly , Thornton etc get bumped down making the pen a lot deeper

  103. Against All Odds January 6th, 2014 at 2:24 pm

    blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:21 pm
    I think Betances is right where he should be and hope he can contribute this year

    —————

    I agree with that. I think he can be a force in the pen going forward.

  104. yankeefeminista January 6th, 2014 at 2:25 pm

    Getting an experienced reliever would be cool, but relievers are so quirky/fungible that you never know what you are getting. That is why Mo (and DRob when he hasn’t been hurt) are so atypical. But becoming a reliever isn’t rocket science, you just need stuff and location. So, any good pitcher with that will possibly work out fine if he is coming in to throw a few pitches for an inning. When RP’s start going two innings, then is when they can sometimes get into trouble.

    Gotta run.

  105. blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:25 pm

    Will Tom Glavines HOF plaque be just a little wider than everyone else’s?

  106. J. Alfred Prufrock January 6th, 2014 at 2:26 pm

    Pruf, second half Burawa was a stud. Again it is all about control with him, and he seemed to find something mechanically second half. Here’s hoping it lasts.
    ///

    If he can pick up where he left off, he’s indeed an option for the BP in 2014.

    I’m still waiting to hear how I have “severely over rated” him by suggesting he could be a viable option among a handful from our miLB crop they could tap havesuch a role in 2014, but have yet to hear back and now, it’s time for me to move.

    Have a good day and stay warm.

  107. Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 2:28 pm

    ” Against All Odds January 6th, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    moving a SP to the pen is not the kiss of death

    —————–

    It is with this franchise.”

    =====================
    id have to disagree. phelps, nova and nuno (as well as both hughes and joba) were all used out of the pen then went back to starting.

  108. Against All Odds January 6th, 2014 at 2:28 pm

    yankeefeminista January 6th, 2014 at 2:20 pm
    Odds, QFT.

    ——————-

    I remember a couple of yrs ago a report about maybe Manny coming up and pitching out of the pen to get lefties out.

    I thought WTF why is that even being suggested

  109. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 2:29 pm

    I think Betances has a chance to be a force in the BP but I would not count on him as anything more than the 6th/7th man in the BP to start the year. Adding one back end arm would be great but adding 2 would turn a current weakness into a strength

    Drob – Kelley – Thornton – Claiborne – Betances – Cabral – Warren
    ^^^ Scares the hell out of me

    Drob – Balfour – Putz – Kelley – Thornton – Claiborne/Betances – Phelps/Warren
    ^^^ That BP is now a strength

  110. Against All Odds January 6th, 2014 at 2:30 pm

    Ys Guy January 6th, 2014 at 2:28 pm
    ” Against All Odds January 6th, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    moving a SP to the pen is not the kiss of death

    —————–

    It is with this franchise.”

    =====================
    id have to disagree. phelps, nova and nuno (as well as both hughes and joba) were all used out of the pen then went back to starting.

    ————————————-

    Joba and Hughes went back but were they the same since returning. Hell many fans didn’t even like the Yankees yo-yoing Phelps back and forth even though his ceiling isn’t exactly high as a stater. That doesn’t mean they should never have a starter relieve I just don’t trust this franchise with starting pitchers tbh with you.

  111. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 2:34 pm

    “Because you treat their projections as fact when you give your opinion……”

    That’s not what I’m doing. That’s what you’re reading into it. When I quote ZIPs I am not giving my opinion at all. I am citing an objective, quantitative projection of what to expect. By and large I am not giving my opinion here today. At times I have been, but largely I’ve just been asking you to question your own opinion using some solid evidence. To look at what is actually expected of these guys based on historical precedence rather than just talking about how they lost a HoFer, everyone is a year older, and all these subjective arguments that don’t actually have any meat to them. I’m not even telling you that you’re wrong. I just asked you what the reasoning was behind your opinion that they have not improved in net terms. It seems very shaky for someone who claims his opinion is always well thought out. To the point where you actually quickly backed off that opinion, when I look back at it. But instead of just saying “you know Ted, you are right” you kept arguing and arguing with me over semantics and bringing up other issues.

    “Any projection for Pineda and Banuelos is a total and complete guess…..”

    This is evidence that you are misinterpreting what these projections are. None of them are guessing at anything. That would be a prediction. They are simply telling you the most likely outcome based on historical results.
    What you may be trying to say is that there is more variability in the projections for guys like Pineda or Banuelos who are coming off injury and have little or no MLB track record than proven veterans. This is almost definitely true. These systems don’t report anything about the probability distributions that they’re looking at other than the mean, as far as I know, so we can’t really say how much more variability there is. No one is arguing that Pineda or Banuelos will do x, y, or z, though, merely that out of all the available guys the projections are decent rough estimates of their performance. Some will top them and some will not reach them, but it seems reasonable enough to use them as a yardstick.
    (Again, to really talk about these things intelligently I would suggest taking a stats course. That’s not meant to be an insult. Just a friendly suggestion. You spend all day talking about things that are pretty easy to learn, but that you don’t seem to have taken the time to learn yet.)

    “There is a ton of risk on the Yankees roster….if you project everything out as best case scenario then it might make you feel better but chances are you will be disappointed …..”

    Again, you don’t seem to understand what we are talking about. ZIPs are not the best case scenario. They are the most likely case scenario. At this point I am really begging of you that you understand what you’re arguing about. It’s really frustrating.

  112. GregD January 6th, 2014 at 2:40 pm

    blake January 6th, 2014 at 2:25 pm
    Will Tom Glavines HOF plaque be just a little wider than everyone else’s?

    ——————————
    now this is funny!!! :)

  113. Blojaldo January 6th, 2014 at 2:41 pm

    I find the silence coming from the Tanaka camp to be deafening, it’s hard to believe there hasn’t been a leak from a friend of his, a family member, etc. I am referring to what kind of person he is and what is important to him. Is it just the money and the high bidder? Or is the city a important factor in what deal he takes? Does he care about the flight time from Japan and the Japanese communities on the West Coast or not? The ‘X’ factor.

  114. pkyankfan69 January 6th, 2014 at 2:41 pm

    “Again, you don’t seem to understand what we are talking about. ZIPs are not the best case scenario. They are the most likely case scenario. ”

    If Zips are most likely scenario, you don’t think the Yankees need to add another good starter?

    Am I reading these ZIPs projections wrong? The projections below make the rotation look like it is most likely going to be terrible

    Kuroda – 3.74 ERA – 178 IP
    CC – 4.03 ERA – 196 IP
    Nova 3.98 ERA – 165 IP
    Phelps 4.51 ERA – 101 IP
    Pineda 4.65 ERA – 81 IP
    Warren 4.64 ERA – 77 IP
    Banuelos 5.79 ERA – 28 IP

  115. bigdan22 January 6th, 2014 at 2:42 pm

    http://itsaboutthemoney.net/ar.....to-tanaka/

    A very interesting read. Tanaka does not just have an awesome splitter, the movement and spin on his four-seamer and slider seem extraordinary by the elite ML standards.

    Just goes to show how much easier it is now to scout someone with the current technology.

  116. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 2:52 pm

    “I think Betances has a chance to be a force in the BP but I would not count on him as anything more than the 6th/7th man in the BP to start the year.”

    I think that the point people are making with regard to the current BP is not to count on any one player but to count on a couple of guys emerging from amongst a host of options.

    Look, for example, at what J. Alfred Prufrock had to say on the subject: “I’m still waiting to hear how I have ‘severely over rated’ him by suggesting he could be a viable option among a handful from our miLB crop they could tap havesuch a role in 2014.” When you mention a handful of players as candidates for a role, you don’t expect each of them to be capable of filling the role but rather that one of them should be.

    “If they bring in Balfour then Robertson can set up”

    I think that Robertson would still close. He’s a significantly better P than Balfour and not letting DRob close this season would be a slap in the face that may lead him to look for other opportunities in 2015 and beyond. They’d potentially be reducing his earning power which would be kind of a dick move. He got the first chance to close when Mo went down and I expect him to have it again until he proves that he can’t handle it.

    Balfour would be a good set-up option at the right price. I’m not arguing otherwise. I just don’t think that they need him. If they can afford him and grab him, great. If not, I’m confident that they’ll find a solid RH set-up guy to complement Thornton. Even though I don’t know exactly who that is right now.

  117. Jerkface January 6th, 2014 at 3:01 pm

    Great article bigdan.

  118. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 3:02 pm

    “If Zips are most likely scenario, you don’t think the Yankees need to add another good starter?”

    I don’t think that they *need* to, no. Certainly I think that it would benefit them to add a SP option who is better than what they have. I actually expect that they will do that. I think that they’ll sign Tanaka and I think that it will work out for them. My opinion on what they’ll do is not really what I’ve been discussing for the most part, though.

    Where this all started was just whether they have improved from 2013 in net terms. To do that I don’t think that they need to add another SP. I think they’ve already done that. This is what most of my arguments have been about.

    Another thing I am just pointing out is that if they sign Santana/Jimenez/Garza it may just lead to having a rotation spot and $15+ million for 4, 5, 6 years locked up in below average performance like with Burnett/Pavano/Wright/Vazquez. Oliver’s projections actually have Jimenez as high as a 4.4 ERA for 2014, so while those guys are better bets than the current options they may not be better enough to justify locking up all that money, a long-term rotation spot, and in some cases a relatively high draft pick. At some point it’s better to go with fairly promising options and leave your options open for a trade or future FA acquisition than to overpay for a mediocre SP you don’t really want.

  119. blake January 6th, 2014 at 3:03 pm

    “Again, you don’t seem to understand what we are talking about. ZIPs are not the best case scenario. They are the most likely case scenario. At this point I am really begging of you that you understand what you’re arguing about. It’s really frustrating.”

    What are we talking about anymore?

  120. blake January 6th, 2014 at 3:05 pm

    A very interesting read. Tanaka does not just have an awesome splitter, the movement and spin on his four-seamer and slider seem extraordinary by the elite ML standards.”

    Reason # 1 they should sign him and maybe also a reason that his upside in MLB could be undervalued…..because current but leaguers are mostly flumuxed by a good split

  121. mick January 6th, 2014 at 3:05 pm

    blake makes the side page:

    blake @TarYank6

    @AndrewMarchand the Arod decision will be announced just before the end of time….if even then

  122. blake January 6th, 2014 at 3:07 pm

    If Tanakas fastball command and split at as good as advertised then he just needs an big league average breaking ball iMO to be really good…..if he came make it plus then he could be a 1.

  123. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 3:10 pm

    “What are we talking about anymore?”

    Are you really this unwilling to admit when you make a mistake or don’t understand something?

  124. mick January 6th, 2014 at 3:10 pm

    Tanaka sounds alot like Clemens who didn’t throw a breaking pitch.
    Better get him.

  125. mick January 6th, 2014 at 3:11 pm

    Ted why don’t you lighten up?

  126. bigdan22 January 6th, 2014 at 3:12 pm

    “Reason # 1 they should sign him and maybe also a reason that his upside in MLB could be undervalued…..because current but leaguers are mostly flumuxed by a good split”

    ______

    I don’t know how many ways I could say this, but I still believe if the Yanks sign him he’s their No. 1 starter come April. And you can throw out WAR too, because as this team is currently constructed, I think Tanaka immediately moves the Yanks from mediocre to serious division contenders. He could be worth 10 wins to the Yanks. If there is such a thing.

  127. blake January 6th, 2014 at 3:14 pm

    Are you really this unwilling to admit when you make a mistake or don’t understand something?”

    You morphed the discussion into something it wasn’t intended to be…..what’s are you talking about? I don’t disagree with what ZiPs is….I disagree with the reliability of it in some cAses

  128. blake January 6th, 2014 at 3:16 pm

    Lets just move on Ted because honestly I don’t even know what we are discussing anymore….

  129. Hankflorida January 6th, 2014 at 3:19 pm

    Again, you don’t seem to understand what we are talking about. ZIPs are not the best case scenario. They are the most likely case scenario. At this point I am really begging of you that you understand what you’re arguing about. It’s really frustrating.

    Ted, I do not think that anyone is not understanding that ZIPS are the most likely scenario based on statistics. How many times have we heard from the sports announcers that when a player starts out hitting way below his average, that things will even out for him and he will find his level. Who can dispute that “things are what they are not what they seem,” but what things could be if there is that certain chemistry are in the realm of reaching towards what you call the best case scenario; this is what you must understand when people on this blog tend to argue with each other, it is about the endless possibilities within the uncertaintity of tomorrow.

  130. bigdan22 January 6th, 2014 at 3:20 pm

    blake January 6th, 2014 at 3:07 pm

    “If Tanakas fastball command and split at as good as advertised then he just needs an big league average breaking ball iMO to be really good…..if he came make it plus then he could be a 1.”

    ______

    Blake, look at that article I posted. And look at other scouting reports. Tanaka already has a plus slider to go with a plus split. The article indicates his four-seamer may have the best movement in the game. That’s 3 plus pitches. For most folks, that’s a No. 1.

  131. GregD January 6th, 2014 at 3:30 pm

    On Saturday, thanks to the deep freeze, my pipes burst in the basement. Fortunately, I heard water running and was able to shut off the water main before any damage took place. However, I wasn’t able to get a plumber until today to come and fix the problem. So I have been living without water for more than two days………no fun…………….

  132. Ted Nelson January 6th, 2014 at 5:19 pm

    “Ted, I do not think that anyone is not understanding that ZIPS are the most likely scenario based on statistics.”

    Blake specifically called it the best case.

    “You morphed the discussion into something it wasn’t intended to be…..what’s are you talking about? I don’t disagree with what ZiPs is….I disagree with the reliability of it in some cAses”

    I pointed out several cases where you were misunderstanding ZIPs. Stop arguing and try to actually understand what I am saying. You just might actually learn something you didn’t know before.

  133. Dill Pickler January 6th, 2014 at 8:11 pm

    “because both the Yankees and Mariners are clearly focused on pitching. Each team already has added offense — the Mariners by signing Robinson Cano, the Yankees by trying to replace him — which leaves the pitching market as their best chance to further upgrade.”

    Sometimes you wonder if Chad thinks before he posts. The Mariners “best chance to further upgrade” is by adding pitching? Really? Wow. Silly me, I thought they already had a pretty good pitching staff but needed LOTS of offensive help before they could even hope to be considered contenders. Simply adding Cano and a couple of question marks isn’t enough for that offense to be sufficient. Just because someone somewhere made this ludicrous statement doesn’t mean you have to repost it here. It’s beyond ridiculous.

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