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The ongoing concern (or, why Tanaka matters so much)

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 07, 2014 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Yankees Orioles Baseball

When posted earlier about the key issues at each position, I intentionally left out both the rotation and the bullpen.

In the bullpen, the key issue — replacing Mariano Rivera — is obvious and has been overly dissected already this winter. The secondary issues are largely unknown while we’re waiting for the bullpen to more fully come together. Things like what to expect from Shawn Kelley, Matt Thornton and Dellin Betances are pretty standard for any bullpen bringing back a breakout reliever, bringing in a veteran, or preparing to give a young guy a chance. Those situations aren’t exactly unique.

But the reason I left out the rotation was different. It’s because the key issues are overwhelming and all over the place. Every rotation possibility, it seems, has his own key issue to consider. The most obvious one at the moment is the availability of Masahiro Tanaka, but I think you could argue that some of the issues surrounding the Yankees current starters are just as pivotal as landing Tanaka.

Which is why signing Tanaka is so important in the first place: Because this rotation has so many holes and so much uncertainty to begin with.

Consider these eight rotation possibilities, with the key issue facing each one:

CC SabathiaCC Sabathia – Transition
Diminished velocity and the worst season of his career. Does that mean he’s finished, or simply that he’s transiting into a new phase of his career when he’ll have to be more savvy than overpowering? Having Sabathia bounce back just might be the Yankees biggest issue of 2014.

Hiroki Kuroda – Age
Two nearly identical seasons in the Bronx, which led to yet another one-year contract heading into his 39th birthday. How long can he keep this up, and could a workload limit help him avoid a late-season decline?

Ivan Nova – Consistency
Sent to the minor leagues mid-season, he finished with the rotation’s best ERA last year. Such is Nova’s wild up-and-down experience. He can be great, but can he be great game after game for more than a month or two at a time?

Michael Pineda – Effectiveness
He didn’t pitch in many games last year, but at least he pitched last year. And at times, there were positive reports about his arm strength. Assuming he’s healthy — which is a huge assumption — is he still a good enough pitcher to be a No. 2 or 3 in the big leagues?

David Phelps — Opportunity
Other than the number of innings, there’s not too much difference between last year’s number for Phelps and Phil Hughes. Bouncing between the bullpen and rotation, Phelps had a 4.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He still carries some benefit of the doubt, but that might disappear with another rocky year.

Adam Warren – Next step
Phelps had a 3.34 ERA as a rookie long man and spot starter in 2012. Warren had a 3.39 ERA in nearly the same role last year. Difference is, Warren’s had only three big league starts (Phelps had 11 as a rookie). Given the chance, can Warren take that next step from emerging mopup man to dependable starter?

Vidal Nuno – Dark horse
Prospect hype comes and goes, and sometimes it misses the mark entirely. Nuno has gone from being released, to pitching in independent ball, to having a breakout 2012, and showing encouraging results in 2013. Can he keep that pace with a larger sample size?

Manny Banuelos – Readiness
Not so long ago, he was considered one of the best young left-handed pitchers in baseball. Now he’s more than a year removed from Tommy John having hardly pitched since 2011. How soon can he be ready? And when he is ready, will he be ready to help in the big leagues?

Associated Press photos

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197 Responses to “The ongoing concern (or, why Tanaka matters so much)”

  1. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 5:31 pm

    The reason we need a solid mid-rotation SP is because of all the questions you detailed above Chad.

    Whether it is Tanaka or someone else the bottom line is that we need at least 1.

    ;)

  2. Irreverent Discourse January 7th, 2014 at 5:31 pm

    Vidal Nuno’s thoughts on anthropomorphic climate change might shed some light on his viability as a starting pitcher.

  3. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 5:45 pm

    ID-

    The info he might provide is vidal.

    :)

  4. bardos January 7th, 2014 at 5:46 pm

    I take 10,000 iu of D3 per day, except when I’m on Maui of course. Haven’t been ill in years. Think about it, highest life expectancy in the US is, wait for it, Hawaii . Could it be the constant sun and anti inflammatory affect of grounding at the beach? YMMV.

  5. luis January 7th, 2014 at 5:49 pm

    Hello Chad,

    Good post even though I don’t generally agree on your take… First, I do think CC will become more of a finesse pitcher from here on out, but also regardless on how long it takes for him to adjust, I don’t think he will be as bad as he was last season ( 0,3 WAR, even worse than Hughes (0,6 WAR) )… Nova is far better than what you give him credit for, so is Phelps… Kuroda if given enough rest and more easy innings ( this is on the offense ) should be fine. So we could still go to war without any new addition… But it wouldn’t be good enough probably… Tanaka provides depth, upside both for the present and the future, that’s why he should be signed

  6. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 5:50 pm

    Bardos-

    Utah is #2.

    We get over 300 days of Sun out here.

  7. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 5:52 pm

    Very bad idea Luis IMO.

    You’ve just added uncertainty on top of uncertainty that way.

  8. luis January 7th, 2014 at 5:53 pm

    Which one MTU?

  9. blake January 7th, 2014 at 5:56 pm

    I’ve been taking 6,000 IU. How long have you been taking 10,000? any side effects?

  10. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 5:58 pm

    Luis-

    The idea of going with all our in-house guys.

    It’s fine to have a competition for the 5 slot but that is all IMO.

    None of the others have enough innings to be a 4 or higher. And I’m not sure they have the ability even if they were cleared for a full season’s worth.

    That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.

    ;)

  11. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:01 pm

    Oh! ok…. I don’t want them to go like that…I think they need Tanaka… But if we miss him for some reason, I don’t think there is another alternative good enough in the FA market… And about going to war with what we have, I do think we can make the PS with it…But everything has to break right

  12. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:03 pm

    Luis-

    I very much doubt that.

    It’s pie in the sky Luis but you are entitled to your opinion of course.

    When do you head home ? Or should I say, are you heading home ?

  13. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:04 pm

    If the Yankees do not land Mr. T they should grab one of the other FA SP.

  14. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:05 pm

    Yes, I am heading home… Jan 13th if all goes well

  15. Jerkface January 7th, 2014 at 6:08 pm

    If the Yankees do not land Mr. T they should grab one of the other FA SP.

    If they don’t land Tanaka, I would prefer they don’t get any of the others.

  16. Deal With It January 7th, 2014 at 6:09 pm

    FWIW ……

    The Braves John Schuerholz on MLB Radio said they are out on Tanaka

  17. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:09 pm

    I would trade for Bailey…But i wouldn’t spend a nickel on the likes of Garza, Santana or Jimenez…A cheap short term option like Johan, i would

  18. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:12 pm

    JF/Luis-

    Bad idea to go in-house only.

    At very least we need someone who can eat innings.

    An Arroyo type.

    Not my preference but the need for an extra 200 or so innings is definitely there.

    I do not see the Yankees going w you guy’s plan.

    If they don’t get Tanaka I’m expect U-Jim or Garza.

    Guess we will agree to disagree on this one.

    ;)

  19. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:16 pm

    Luis-

    I would love to get Homer but he may just not be available, or we might not be willing to surrender what they’d ask in return.

  20. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:18 pm

    MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:16 pm
    Luis-

    I would love to get Homer but he may just not be available, or we might not be willing to surrender what they’d ask in return.

    ===============================

    I agree here wholeheartedly

  21. Jerkface January 7th, 2014 at 6:19 pm

    MTU,

    If they get a guy on a 1 year deal I’d be ok with that, but I’d have real reservations about the Yankees pitching move this offseason being one of the ‘big 3′ on a long term deal. Jimenez and Garza are not anywhere near locks for 200 innings to begin with.

    I’d prefer a trade or something if there is no Tanaka I guess.

  22. austinmac January 7th, 2014 at 6:22 pm

    “The info he may have is Vidal.”

    Good one., MTU. I guess AROD decision next week. Aargh. I have never been more sick of a sports subject.

  23. blake January 7th, 2014 at 6:23 pm

    “If they don’t land Tanaka, I would prefer they don’t get any of the others.”

    I tend to argue with regards to the FAs anyway ….they really need to get tanaka

  24. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:24 pm

    JF-

    Trade. But for who other than Bailey ? Who’s available ?

    I understand your concerns on the others but it becomes a matter of necessity I guess.

    I really don’t care that much how they fill it after the better options of Tanaka/Bailey.

    The options fall steadily downhill from there.

    Point is that they do need someone.

    I really don’t care how they go about it just that they do.

  25. RhapsodyInBlue January 7th, 2014 at 6:26 pm

    Those are some beautiful pictures MTU. Thanks for sharing :)

  26. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:27 pm

    You guys can’t have all your eggs in one basket.

    There is no guarantee we will come away w Tanaka.

    There is a lot of competition. A lot.

    Must have a plan B, and maybe a plan C.

  27. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:29 pm

    Mac-

    I’m sick to he gills of the AR thing.

    Can’t wait to get it over and done with.

    Tanaka thing is getting to be that way for me too.

    Tired of all the delays and gyrations.

    Want that puppy settled ASAP too.

    ;)

  28. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:30 pm

    RIB-

    My pleasure. Glad you liked them.

    I’m blessed to live where I do.

    :)

  29. Jerkface January 7th, 2014 at 6:30 pm

    You guys can’t have all your eggs in one basket.

    Which is exactly why I wouldn’t solo-sign one of the other 3.

  30. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:31 pm

    MTU,

    The problem with those three is that they will command a huge long term deal…They probably won’t live up to their contracts…Frankly, I think they will be very mediocre…The problem arises when they keep giving any of them the ball because of the contract… Also, we can get similar production from our in-house options at a fraction of the cost… To bring a name, just for the sake of bringing fans in to NYS would do a very huge disservice to the team as a whole

  31. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:32 pm

    Luis-

    I do not agree we can get similar production from our current in-house options.

    Guess that is our point of departure.

    ;)

  32. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:34 pm

    Good evening!

    I want Tanaka, specially for the long term. No to the Garzas and Ubaldos of the word, I’d rather have a decent patch or reclamation project for one year. I don’t want to be stuck with more sub-par contracts.

    About availability, one never knows, ninjas are always on alert…

  33. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:35 pm

    JF-

    IMO they offer a higher probability of success than our internal candidates.

    Perhaps your opinion is different ? I’d imagine it is.

    We can just agree to disagree and see what the Yankees do.

    Personally, I hope they come away w either Tanaka or Bailey but I don’t think we can count on that.

  34. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:37 pm

    Good evening jmv.

    I sent you some photos to view.

    enjoy.

    Say hi to the Mrs. for me.

    :)

  35. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:37 pm

    I guess my friend ;)

    Just look closely to their stats…. There are clear trends and mostly not very good ones ;)

    But let’s leave the debate here..It is pointless at this point I guess

    i agree…this waiting is boooring!!

  36. Jerkface January 7th, 2014 at 6:37 pm

    Yea I think its likely one of the other 3 could do better than Phelps, but then they will be taking up a roster slot and lots of payroll without the real upside presented by Tanaka. And I think any of the 3 sucking big time next year is at such a probability where it isn’t worth it to bank on signing 1 of them as the only move for the rotation.

  37. Pat M. January 7th, 2014 at 6:39 pm

    Lot’s of baseball chatter on the golf course today. Phillies are listening to calls on Cliff Lee, and Ulbaldo is still expected to go to the Bronx. Seems as though the Bombers want to sign 2 starters aside from Kuroda. Shot a 92 with 2 lost balls

  38. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:39 pm

    jmv,

    Happy New year!!

  39. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:42 pm

    MTU!

    I will catch those photos asap! I’m on my phone right now

    300 days of sun? Sounds comfy

    JF,

    I’m with you with the bad contracts. But we need one more pitcher. If they don’t land Tanaka, something’s gotta give… We could be surprised or patched

    Luis!

    You really like cold, don’t you?

  40. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:42 pm

    Feliz año Luis!

  41. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:44 pm

    BRB…

    Pat M,

    Good to see you… Not good the idea of two pitchers ( Which I assume are Tanaka and Jimenez )… That means no 5th spot for internal development

  42. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:45 pm

    JF-

    Unless you happen to have a rabbit up your sleeve there do not appear to be a lot of alternatives.

    I’d hold my nose for a guy like Arroyo or Maholm I guess.

    Perhaps it will all be moot and we will come away with MT.

  43. luis January 7th, 2014 at 6:46 pm

    Luis!

    You really like cold, don’t you?

    =====================

    I love winter…But this 9F degrees weather is beyond my liking levels! ;)

    Ya vengo, voy afuera un ratico y regreso

  44. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:47 pm

    I don’t like two additions… I want Pineda and Phelps splitting time there, with Manny knocking at the door

  45. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:49 pm

    Luis-

    If you will pardon me for saying so I don’t think you are viewing it right.

    The Yankees are very concerned with aspects of their rotation.

    Even bring in some guys there may still be work to go around.

    Pineda is a huge X factor right now for instance.

    If he shows the promise he had before his injury you can be sure they will make room for him
    in the rotation.

    Remember. if you have a surplus of something valuable like SP you can trade some of it for
    other things you may need.

    ;)

  46. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:50 pm

    jmv-

    If you need vitamin D southern Utah is the place.

    :)

  47. blake January 7th, 2014 at 6:51 pm

    Pat M,
    Ubaldo is fine if he’s in addition to tanaka…..how’s the weather your way

  48. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:52 pm

    Pat M.-

    Steve has said he is hearing the same things as you in regards to Jiminez.

    Thanks for sharing the whispers.

  49. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:52 pm

    Well I don’t think I’m short on vitamins, but I’m definitely short on Canyon…

  50. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:53 pm

    That didn’t sound very well, did it? ROFL

  51. tomingeorgia January 7th, 2014 at 6:54 pm

    I admire the folks who say “give the kids a chance” and at the same time say “Let’s hire somebody” to do the same job. See, Ted, that didn’t take seven paragraphs.

  52. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:54 pm

    jmv-

    I got your point nevertheless.

    ;)

  53. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 6:55 pm

    MTU,

    “if you have a surplus of something valuable like SP you can trade some of it for
    other things you may need”

    You are right, but who would they trade really scares me…

  54. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 6:59 pm

    jmv-

    I can understand your concern.

    I am just saying when you have it you can use it.

    I didn’t say “wisely”.

    Hopefully that would be the case.

    ;)

  55. pkyankfan69 January 7th, 2014 at 7:00 pm

    2014: CC – Kuroda – Tanaka – Nova – Ubaldo
    2015: CC – Tanaka – Nova – Ubaldo – Pineda/Banuelos

    Other than the risk that comes with Ubaldo who has been really up and down, you would have to think signing both him and Tanaka this year would hurt the Yankees chances at signing any one of Kershaw/Sherzer/Lester/Shields/Bailey if/when some of them hit the market. I’m going to take a huge leap of faith in the Yankee farm system and assume that either Pineda or Banuelos will take hold of a full time rotation spot by 2015 (maybe even Ramirez.)

  56. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:00 pm

    Tom-

    “Brevity is the soul of wit.”

    :)

  57. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:02 pm

    69-

    You may have just taken a leap off the rim of the Grand Canyon.

    Hope you brought your parachute.

    ;)

  58. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:07 pm

    Dinner time.

    Back in a while.

    ;)

  59. pkyankfan69 January 7th, 2014 at 7:07 pm

    MTU,

    lol… What can I say… I’m a man of great faith!.

  60. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:07 pm

    pkyankfan69,

    I do like the 5th starter tryout

    How could Pineda or Banuelos pitch in 2015 if they don’t get the opportunities in 2014?

  61. luis January 7th, 2014 at 7:09 pm

    MTU,

    To be honest, I am not expecting much from Pineda at this point…But the 5th spot should be reserved for internal development if they plan to actually have some semblance of a homegrown rotation at some point…I know they need to build the innings of our farm arms and that they are not close to ready at this point.

    But signing Ubaldo is very dumb in my opinion…He has “AJ Burnett” written all over him… His k/9 is great, but his WHIP is very concerning…It tells you about a very inconsistent pitcher…So if we are looking for some certainty, the only certainty you will find is that he is going to take the ball every 5 days because of the contract he has… Otherwise prepare yourself with a hefty doze of heartburn medicine in order to watch every start of this guy.

    One thing is certain though….The FO has very little faith on what they currently have on the fold

    Got to go, enjoy the rest of the evening

  62. luis January 7th, 2014 at 7:10 pm

    Tom,

    Happy new Year!… Loved your post! ;)

  63. Pat M. January 7th, 2014 at 7:10 pm

    blake…..Two people today that they believe that The Yanks will stay competitive in their pursuit of Tanaka, but nobody knows for certain as to what their ceiling is…..Mariners and Cubbies really want him and are willing to spend whatever it takes……73 degrees this morning when we tee’d off

  64. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:11 pm

    On the other hand, I’m sure Cashman won’t hold on a signing/trade in order to wait for next year’s market. What if any of those guys actually hit the market?

  65. luis January 7th, 2014 at 7:11 pm

    MTU,

    Please send Steve my kind regards…He hasn’t been around much lately

  66. luis January 7th, 2014 at 7:13 pm

    73 degrees this morning when we tee’d off

    ==================================

    9 degrees where I am at….I never thought I would say this….I envy your weather man

  67. pkyankfan69 January 7th, 2014 at 7:15 pm

    How could Pineda or Banuelos pitch in 2015 if they don’t get the opportunities in 2014?
    —–
    I’m not really advocating signing both Tanaka and Ubaldo, just commenting on the above talk… I’d have trouble committing more then say 3 years – $45M for Ubaldo because of how inconsistent he has been. In this market I don’t think $45M gets it done with Jimenez, I think someone will roll the dice with a 4-5 year deal. If they did sign both Pineda and Manny would be left to build there innings back up in AAA and provide depth in case of injury on the big league staff. Chances are at least one or 2 pitchers will go down for a period of time and the Yanks would have to pull one of them up for a few starts with the big club (could easily be Warren/Nuno in that case too.)… If the Yanks did sign Tanaka and Ubaldo there is no reason why Pineda and/or Banuelos could not be ready to contribute in 2015.

  68. Copelius January 7th, 2014 at 7:27 pm

    MTU,

    Great shots on the last thread. Have you ever gotten over to the Colorado National Monument to the southwest of Grand Junction? I think that is some of the best redrock out there.

    I agree with you we are blessed to live in Utah. I am still awestruck by Mt. Olympus every evening as I walk out to my car. I cannot capture Utah’s beauty like you have though.

  69. pkyankfan69 January 7th, 2014 at 7:31 pm

    Copelius,

    You live in Salt Lake City?

  70. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:31 pm

    pkyankfan69 says:
    January 7, 2014 at 7:15 pm

    “I’m not really advocating signing both Tanaka and Ubaldo”

    I know you don’t! But I’d rather try the kids at the 5th spot, than overpaying for a question mark

  71. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:31 pm

    Copelius-

    Thank you. Much appreciated. Glad you liked them.

    I have not. I want to go to Canyon of the Ancients near Cortez sometime.

    I am on a mission to show God’s handiwork. It gives my Life a sense of purpose.

    Granted the talent to do the bidding thru my love of my surroundings and thru his grace.

    :)

  72. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:34 pm

    jmv-

    I know you would. Just don’t think the Yankees will approach it that way.

    ;)

  73. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:36 pm

    MTU,

    I know the Yankees go the veteran way…

    But one can hope!

    I’d die for a ninja trade…

  74. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:37 pm

    As a last resource, if they can land a veteran without a no-trade clause, it would be the lesser damage

  75. Copelius January 7th, 2014 at 7:38 pm

    69

    Yes I do.

  76. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:38 pm

    jmv-

    “I’d die for a ninja trade…”

    You might just have to do that to get one.

    I think we are travelling along well worn routes.

    :(

  77. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:40 pm

    “For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
    For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
    For want of a horse the rider was lost.
    For want of a rider the message was lost.
    For want of a message the battle was lost.
    For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
    And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.”

    I don’t want to see this happen to the Yankees.

    ;)

  78. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:41 pm

    “Man is the only animal that trips twice over the same stone.”

  79. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:43 pm

    jmv-

    I definitely have been known to do that in my travels.

    Tree branches too !

    :)

  80. MTU January 7th, 2014 at 7:46 pm

    El Neuvo Hilo ——->

  81. pkyankfan69 January 7th, 2014 at 7:46 pm

    Coplius,

    Awesome… I’ve ski bummed out there a few seasons, lived in Cottonwood Heights… Always did a season pass at Solitude so I mostly skied there but have skied most in the area, Bird/Alta/Brighton/Park City/Deer Valley, some back country but I’m a novice when it comes to Avy knowledge — Never skied Canyons or the northern Utah resorts… We used to hike up on Mount Olympus all the time… Beautiful views from up there.

    Utah is awesome, very jealous!

  82. jmv January 7th, 2014 at 7:48 pm

    “MTU says:
    January 7, 2014 at 7:43 pm
    jmv-

    I definitely have been known to do that in my travels.

    Tree branches too !”

    LOL

    Javy comes to mind…

  83. MG January 7th, 2014 at 7:58 pm

    To continue the golf course thread started by Pat M, I joined my new golf club today (a TPC Course) and was scheduling my orientation session with the club general manager when the membership director mentioned that the newest member is from the world of baseball-someone named Jim Leyland, anyone ever heard of him? What position does or did he play?

  84. pete2 January 7th, 2014 at 8:16 pm

    Despite some concerns I would like Tanaka, but just don’t see it happening. Will find out in a couple of weeks I guess.

    I do hold out some hope of Pineda being close to what he was with Seattle and Banuelos bouncing back from TJ Surgery with an extra mile or two on his FB and being a force by the ASB.

    Unfortunately, I am not too optimistic about CC and worry the Kuroda we saw down the stretch is someone we see more of earlier. I do feel pretty good about Nova, but not so optimistic about Warren and Phelps, especially against the better teams.

    And without a strong bullpen, some of these guys will get left in longer than they should be and inflate their ERA’s

    Chad has me wondering if my 85 W projection is too optimistic. Large error bands there though, maybe +/- 8 wins. A perfect storm of wonderful like the Red Sox had last year and who knows. Conversely, if a lot of things go wrong, watch out below.

  85. pete2 January 7th, 2014 at 11:01 pm

    Fascinating article from Harvard Business School on the commercialization of Japanese stars by MLb teams. Yankees should be all over him as Tanaka will pay for himself. Shocking to me in light of this that they were not all over Darvish.

    http://www.google.com.tw/url?s.....lL3aWS45uQ

  86. mikelf January 8th, 2014 at 6:25 am

    Phelps isn’t nearly as questionable as you would think. His 2013 ERA drops to 4.16 when you drop his June 29 start against Baltimore when he gave up 9 earned runs in 2.1 innings.

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