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A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Not-so-random thoughts: Reynolds in Milwaukee, Tanaka and the Cubs

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 17, 2014 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Two things…

Mark Reynolds to Milwaukee
It came out yesterday that Mark Reynolds has agreed to a minor league deal with the Brewers. So the question I began to get was, of course, why Milwaukee and not with the Yankees?

According to Jon Heyman, Reynolds will make $2 million – plus $500,000 in potential incentives — if the makes the big league team in Milwaukee, so I guess there’s a chance the Brewers simply offered more money. Mostly, though, the Brewers have a first base situation that’s a lot like the Yankees’ third base situation. In fact, that Milwaukee job might even be more readily available. Seems like Reynolds passed up a good opportunity with the Yankees, but if he’s just looking for playing time, he might have found a preferable opportunity with the Brewers.

Masahiro Tanaka and the Cubs
The Cubs generated a lot of Masahiro Tanaka buzz during this week’s Owners Meetings. There seems to a be a belief in the game that the Cubs are ready and willing to spend big on the Japanese ace, putting them on a list with the Yankees, Mariners and Dodgers as teams that have been, at various points, the darlings of the Tanaka sweepstakes.

But there’s still no indication that Tanaka is close to signing with any team, and when the Yankees are quiet, like they are right now, that’s sometimes an indication that they’re at their most dangerous. It’s worth noting that two different reports out of Chicago this morning indicated the Cubs are still long shots. From the Chicago Tribune: “Although the Cubs appear to be a long shot for marquee pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, that didn’t stop…” From the Chicago Sun-Times: “In fact, breathless national reports via Twitter and blogs Thursday overshot the Cubs’ likelihood of hanging with the big-spending favorites in New York and Los Angeles…”

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97 Responses to “Not-so-random thoughts: Reynolds in Milwaukee, Tanaka and the Cubs”

  1. Jerkface January 17th, 2014 at 11:53 am

    He’s going to have a hard time living up to the hype and contract he gets now if it goes in the direction it seems to be. We’ll see when he gets here…wherever that may be.

    I don’t think so. Kuroda, Darvish, Matsuzaka, Iwakuma, Uehara, Nomo all came over and were successful from the start. Think it will be very easy for Tanaka to come and have a good debut season. Elite japanese players have actually had a pretty nice time transitioning to the majors.

    I think the question is really how good Tanaka will be, not whether he will bust or not bust. As with most good pitchers the question will be health going forward. Can he avoid that TJS or shoulder issues that is the difference between a CC Sabathia and a Brandon Webb. Matsuzaka lost that lottery with shoulder issues and TJS, but before he got hurt he was an above average starter in the majors.

    Thats really all you can ask for. Tanaka may not have the high end ability of Yu Darvish, but I think the Yankeees can get their moneys worth even at 20+ mil from him. He is good. He has all the talent in the world to succeed in the majors, and we happen to have a very similar guy on our staff right now who has proven that a good fastball + split can have success here.

  2. wanzies222 January 17th, 2014 at 11:54 am

    Apologies if this has already been posted:

    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sp.....tlegvQo6rc

  3. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:03 pm

    Steve-

    Thanks.

    Handsome young Man.

    He’d look good in Pinstripes.

    ;)

  4. Wave Your Hat January 17th, 2014 at 12:05 pm

    trisha-

    Thanks again for the keyboard lesson. I tried it over in the previous thread and I think I have it now.

  5. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:06 pm

    back so soon…those little legs must’ve been flying

  6. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 17th, 2014 at 12:07 pm

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  7. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:09 pm

    Howler-

    Yeah. That one is just the morning constitutional.

    Even if it’s just a mile or so the Mops really appreciate it.

    And so do I.

    Something great about a cool breeze and the sun shinning on your face.

    :)

  8. Jerkface January 17th, 2014 at 12:09 pm

    @Joelsherman1 4m

    #Yankees avoided arbitration with Brett Gardner. He gets $5.6M for 2014

    Gardy gets about a million more than projected.

  9. Ys Guy January 17th, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    hey guys! get in on the tanaka poll

    just the team he signs with and the guaranteed dollars and years for tanaka (no counting the posting fee)

    for a tiebreaker you can add whether there’s an opt out and after which season.

  10. AAA January 17th, 2014 at 12:10 pm

    I don’t think so. Kuroda, Darvish, Matsuzaka, Iwakuma, Uehara, Nomo all came over and were successful from the start

    ================================================

    Tanaka’s case stands to be a little different because he’s going to be paid much more than any of these guys were. Where Darvish is a bargain at $10M per, Tanaka won’t be at $20M+ even if he pitches as well as Darvish. His contract will come with expectations that none of these guys have faced, IMO. That’s not fair, but I think it’ll be true.

  11. Ys Guy January 17th, 2014 at 12:11 pm

    such as: tanaka poll: mets 1/14.2M

  12. Ys Guy January 17th, 2014 at 12:12 pm

    good for gardner. as soon as they finish with the last arbitration case, they need to sit down with brett and extend him.

  13. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:12 pm

    Something I usually do as well…just need my coffee first…first drug of choice…better not OD

  14. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:12 pm

    Trisha-

    You made an interesting point in the previous thread about MT.

    You hoped that people would not turn on him if he does not perform up to specs.

    Unfortunately, I think they will after a grace period.

    He is being given a huge contract and with that goes much pressure and responsibility to perform at a certain level.

    If MT can’t or doesn’t I think he’ll hear it.

    I hope he understands what it means to pitch for the Yankees.

    ;)

  15. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:13 pm

    Yea, this way they can trade him next year and get something worthwhile for him when he’s locked up for a couple years.

  16. Ys Guy January 17th, 2014 at 12:13 pm

    personally i like the ubaldo+garza for the price of tanaka plan better than tanaka at $150+M

  17. AAA January 17th, 2014 at 12:14 pm

    good for gardner. as soon as they finish with the last arbitration case, they need to sit down with brett and extend him

    ===================================

    Not really their style. I think he can command something in the neighborhood of what M. Bourn got last offseason plus inflation. Something along the lines of 4 years/$50M

  18. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:14 pm

    JF-

    Oh sh*t !

    There goes the budget.

    We can surely forget MT now.

    :(

  19. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:15 pm

    Don’t really get all the ubaldo love…hasn’t really shown that much to warrant all the attention…pay him the money to be a subpar A.J.

  20. coney1 January 17th, 2014 at 12:15 pm

    Jesse Sanchez ?@JesseSanchezMLB 9m

    Source tells me clubs have not heard back from Tanaka & nobody knows where they stand. Most had about 60 mins to make a case. No visits.

    ————-
    Weird. You only speak for 60 min to each club and expect to make a life-altering decision like that. That tells me he had a location in mind that he had already visited before ;)

  21. coney1 January 17th, 2014 at 12:17 pm

    The previous post tells me Tanaka has 1-2 destinations in mind and is only using the other clubs to drive up the price. Probably the Dodgers and the Yankees, two towns we know he has already visited in the past.

  22. Michelle B. of Yankee Stadium West January 17th, 2014 at 12:17 pm

    Blake-

    I spit hot coffee halfway across the room when I read your ”automated replay message”. That was some funny stuff, man. Thanks for the laugh.

  23. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:18 pm

    you get docked your next three comments for wasting coffee.

  24. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:19 pm

    Coney-

    What it means is that Close is in control of the process.

    ;)

  25. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:20 pm

    Unless of course your in a Starbucks and it was on a Red Sox fan.

  26. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:21 pm

    Howler-

    Sux fans don’t go to Starbucks.

    ;)

  27. Mottsx January 17th, 2014 at 12:21 pm

    Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:20 pm

    Unless of course your in a Starbucks and it was on a Red Sox fan.

    —-

    Or in starbucks on Cano… what else does he do all day in Seattle?

  28. Wave Your Hat January 17th, 2014 at 12:21 pm

    Of course fans are going to turn on a player like Tanaka if he doesn’t perform, wherever he goes. He hasn’t done anything yet to earn their loyalty. It’s the flip side of making a hundred million dollars.

  29. AAA January 17th, 2014 at 12:22 pm

    Weird. You only speak for 60 min to each club and expect to make a life-altering decision like that. That tells me he had a location in mind that he had already visited before

    ==========================================

    The approach here was interesting. Close could have taken his client on a wine & dine tour of MLB outposts throughout the country.

  30. coney1 January 17th, 2014 at 12:23 pm

    MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:19 pm

    Coney-

    What it means is that Close is in control of the process.
    ————————
    What does that mean though? It has to mean he already knows the 1-2 clubs he wants to play for based on previous visits to the US. If not, and I was Tanaka, I’d tell Close that I would like to see Chicago, Phoenix, etc before I make this important a decision.

  31. Jerkface January 17th, 2014 at 12:24 pm

    Matsuzaka and Darvish may not have had big salaries but the expenditures to get them were still big. They were well received. I think Tanaka will be as good as their debuts and will be well received.

  32. Howler January 17th, 2014 at 12:25 pm

    Traveling across the country like that isn’t really the easiest thing to do even with money if you’re doing it in short time period. He probably has a pretty good idea where he wants to go. Only way I see the Cubs being a possibility is if he just wants the cash and doesn’t want as much pressure.

  33. Bret The Hitman January 17th, 2014 at 12:25 pm

    I think no Tanaka means Jimenez + Bailey + Brandon Phillips.

  34. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:27 pm

    Coney-

    I’m guessing that MT is relying on Close and not the other way round.

    ;)

    JF-

    I also think that is very possible. A terrific 1st season.

    Durability is definitely an issue to be answered.

    MT’s mechanics are excellent IMO so that might help.

  35. Cashmoney January 17th, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    He probably has a pretty good idea where he wants to go.

    probably had a year to plan his great escape from the empire of sun.

  36. Wave Your Hat January 17th, 2014 at 12:28 pm

    I don’t see how you go wrong living in New York, LA or Chicago if you have a ton of money. That’s why I tend to doubt lifestyle will be the determining factor.

  37. Michelle B. of Yankee Stadium West January 17th, 2014 at 12:29 pm

    Howler

    Green mountain blueberry coffee….I hate wasting it!

  38. coney1 January 17th, 2014 at 12:37 pm

    MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:27 pm

    Coney-

    I’m guessing that MT is relying on Close and not the other way round.
    ————————
    I completely disagree with this. I have no doubt that Tanaka has Close driving the negotiation process, etc. but no one in their right mind, when moving to a new country for the first time, would let someone else pick where they live if they have never seen it before. Wherever Tanaka ends up, he’s been there before. And we know for sure he has been to LA and NY.

  39. Ted Nelson January 17th, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    “I think the question is really how good Tanaka will be, not whether he will bust or not bust.”

    I think those are the same questions. A bust at $20 million aav for 6, 7 years is a lot different from a bust in general. Just about anything goes wrong when you’re making $20 mill per and you might be a bust. Ask guys like Burnett, Tex, A-Rod, and maybe CC. (I’m not talking about the weight of expectations altering his performance, by the way, just talking about a bust being a term that is all relative to expectations and investment.)

    I think signing him is the Yankees’ best course of action at this point, but there’s only so much value to be captured when you’re paying someone that much money. If he averages, say, 3 fWAR the next three years that would put him in line with guys like Bartolo Colon, Rick Porcello, Ricky Nolasco, Masterson, Haren… the past three years. If you’re paying $20 million for one of those guys, I don’t think you’re thrilled. Below that, and there’s tons more room below that than above that, and you’re definitely starting to get into bust territory. Even AJ Burnett has totaled 8.1 fWAR the past three seasons. Tanaka has to be one of the better SP in MLB to really justify a $20 million salary.

  40. Cashmoney January 17th, 2014 at 12:49 pm

    two things i am absolutely certain about Tanaka. 1. the AVV will be greater than 20 2. length over 5. beyond that, it is the same as it was a month ago,except, the end is mercifully arriving in a week.

  41. Ted Nelson January 17th, 2014 at 12:51 pm

    “Where Darvish is a bargain at $10M per, Tanaka won’t be at $20M+ even if he pitches as well as Darvish.”

    I do think there’s a decent chance Tanaka is a relative bust, but this isn’t correct. Rangers paid something like $111 million to sign Darvish for 6 years. When you consider that like $50 million of that was paid up front and the time value of money, they easily paid at least $20 mill per for him. It just didn’t all go to him.

  42. Hankflorida January 17th, 2014 at 12:54 pm

    Now that Reynolds is gone from the Yankee radar, does it mean that McCaan will be the substitute 1st basemen if Text is rested?

  43. Cashmoney January 17th, 2014 at 12:58 pm

    Hank, Bugs will be our super U, he has no UZR, too fast for naked eyes to observe.

  44. MTU January 17th, 2014 at 12:59 pm

    New one ——->

  45. hardwired7 January 17th, 2014 at 1:00 pm

    $5.6M for Gardner is still a bargain. The last year they’re able to get him on the cheap.

    He’s going to get paid next year with the dearth of quality OFers available.

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