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Looking ahead: Yankees top prospects a year from now

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Jan 30, 2014 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

This is kind of a strange exercise, but I started thinking about this as soon as I wrote the last sentence in the previous post: It really is possible that each of the Yankees current Top 10 prospects could be eligible for the list next season. With that in mind, what’s the best-case scenario for a Yankees Top 10 Prospects list a year from now? Obviously the team doesn’t want anyone in the current Top 10 to have a bad year and fall out of the rankings, but there’s also some real motivation to have other names emerge as can’t-keep-them-out elite prospects.

Here’s an attempt at a Top 10 Yankees prospects heading into 2015 — actually, I went Top 15 just to make it easier on myself — assuming things go really, really well this season.

Manuel Banuelos1. LHP Manny Banuelos
Here’s the way I’m thinking about it: Two years ago, Banuelos was generally ranked No. 2 behind Jesus Montero. He was considered one of the better left-handed pitching prospects in the game, and then he had Tommy John surgery. In this best-case-scenario world, Banuelos has a dominant return to Triple-A (but the Yankees rotation is solidified by Michael Pineda, meaning the Yankees don’t have to push Banuelos to New York). A true high-end pitching prospect, with a cup of coffee in September, ready to slide into the big league rotation in 2015? That would be huge for the Yankees, and impossible to overlook for anyone creating this sort of ranking.

2. C Gary Sanchez
The key is, Banuelos can’t move to the top just because Sanchez has struggled. A few more strides behind the plate, and some overall production to go with that raw hitting ability, might bump Sanchez among the Top 30 prospects in all of baseball. Even in a best-case scenario, it’s hard to imagine him suddenly erasing all defensive concerns, but if he remains an elite bat, that would be big.

3. CF Mason Williams
In the upper levels of their system, the Yankees have two high-end center field prospects who are fairly similar. In the best-case world, I’m saying Slade Heathcott stays healthy and is so productive in Triple-A that he burns through 150 at-bats in the big leagues. Maybe he’s a second-half replacement for Ichiro Suzuki, getting his feet wet and gradually earning more and more playing time in the outfield. So, if Heathcott isn’t eligible for this ranking — and is instead penciled into the big league lineup for 2015 — that leaves No. 3 for Williams, who was No. 1 on Baseball America’s Yankees list just one year ago. Needs a bounce back year.

4. RHP Rafael De Paula
Combination of two things makes De Paula an ideal Top Five prospect for the Yankees: High-end potential and a relatively high-level of competition. Guys like Ian Clarkin, Ty Hensley and Luis Severino are unlikely to get beyond Class-A even with a good season. De Paula, though, turns 23 in March and already has a half-season in High-A. If he’s able to bring last year’s Low-A results to High-A — which will require an obvious adjustment, and probably better secondary pitchers — he could then jump to Double-A for the second, and continued success at that level would go a long way toward solidifying him as a potential impact starter. A lot of questions right now. He has a chance to answer them, and do so against fairly advanced hitters.

5. RF Tyler Austin
It’s all about the bat and the need. In 2013, Austin looked like a world beater when he crushed Low-A and High-A in his first taste of full-season ball. If last year’s underwhelming results really were the product of a wrist injury that’s healed this offseason, Austin could erase some of that uneasiness that he created by hitting just six homers this year. If he can show something in a return to third base, even better. Mostly, though, it’s all about the bat.

6. CF Aaron Judge
He wasn’t the Yankees highest draft pick last year — that went to the relatively safe choice that we’ll find lower on this list — but he did come with perhaps the most tantalizing potential. He’s a monster at 6-foot-7, and you can imagine the daydreams of that sort of size turning on a fastball. He’s a good athlete, with some reason to wonder if he might even be able to play center field. Even if he’s destined for an outfield corner, the Yankees have already said they’re considering an aggressive High-A assignment for Judge. If he hits a bunch of bombs there, the only thing keeping him out of the top five would be his relative lack of experience.

7. 3B Eric Jagielo
Here’s the Yankees top pick in last year’s draft. He’s a proven college hitter at a position of need and he hits left-handed. What’s not to like? Jagielo was the Yankees top third base prospect the moment his name was announced on draft day, and he was a departure from the Yankees recent trend of using their first picks on high-risk high schoolers who’ve shown a tendency to flame out in the lower levels. Fair or not, Jagielo is not seen as having an extreme, superstar ceiling. But he certainly has the upside of a productive everyday player, and given the Yankees uncertainty at third base, the team certainly wants him to remain a consensus top t0 prospect.

8. RHP Ty Hensley
There are a lot of younger, high-upside starting pitchers who the Yankees would like to have forcing their way into the Top 10 at this time next year. You could put Ian Clarkin here, or Jose Campos, or Luis Severino. I’m going to go with Hensley as my best-case-scenario option, largely because he was a first-rounder back in 2012. He’s a big guy, he’s still just 20 years old, and for reasons of both production and perception, the Yankees would certainly love to have another recent first-round draft pick making everyone’s organizational prospect rankings next year. It would really be nice, though, if the Yankees had a bunch of similar options for this spot.

9. 1B Greg Bird
I thought about leaving Bird off this best-case-scenario list because, let’s face it, the development of a first baseman usually isn’t the highest priority. But then you re-read Dan Barbarisi’s story about Mark Teixeira’s wrist — and you look remember that those spring training invitations didn’t include a single minor league first baseman — and you realize that Bird really could be a huge part of the Yankees future. For such a young guy, Bird seems to have an advanced approach at the plate. If more power comes as Bird ages, he could fit the typical profile of a slugging first baseman (which the Yankees might need pretty soon). If the power shows up big time this year, then No. 9 will be far too low for Bird.

10. SS Abiatal Avelino
Here’s the problem with doing something like this: In a best-case scenario, there too many Top 10 prospects to actually fit in a Top 10 list! You could certainly make a case for the Yankees desperately wanting J.R. Murphy or Mark Montgomery or Jose Ramirez to be Top 10 guys next year (assuming they don’t burn through their rookie status this year). And there’s a lot to be said for a guy like Bryan Mitchell having a huge year in Double-A, or Peter O’Brien continuing to hit for massive power, or Gosuke Katoh proving this year’s numbers were no fluke. All of those are viable, but just for fun, what about the emergence — at last — of a shortstop who just might be able to take over the position at some point? It would take some kind of year for a teenager to win a spot on this list (assuming we’re in a best-case world where a bunch of guys have great seasons), which might be all the most reason to think including Avelino would be a really good sign.

Associated Press photo

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426 Responses to “Looking ahead: Yankees top prospects a year from now”

  1. Against All Odds January 30th, 2014 at 7:15 pm

    MTU January 30th, 2014 at 6:48 pm
    AAO-

    He really needs to shine again.

    It’s been a long time.

    Same goes for Pineda.

    ————————

    I agree both need to shine again. It would be so big for the franchise.

  2. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:18 pm

    Chad – great post… a different perspective the normal top tens

  3. MTU January 30th, 2014 at 7:19 pm

    Dyn-O-Mite Chad.

    You are really good at this sort of thing.

    :)

  4. Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 7:21 pm

    Hankinflorida I am old enough to remember when Shortstop was a defensive position, I remember Mark Belanger (and btw if we’re going to induct great defensive SS’s Belanger certainly belongs) on those hated Orioles teams of the late 60?s. So I understand the idea that Phil and Pee Wee were the best at thier positions in thier era. But I still don’t think either of those guys belongs in the Hall of Fame, and neither did the voting writers.

    There is only one Hall of Fame, there are no “back door” inductees. The Veteran’s Committee, under the influence of Yogi voted those guys in when they just shouldn’t have. You can’t have different criteria for induction to the same Hall.

  5. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:21 pm

    edit – “than” the normal top tens

  6. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:23 pm

    Ys guy – is your restaurant located in Newark (for some reason, I seem to remember that)? I’ll be visiting the city in a few weeks and I’m always looking for restaurants :)

  7. MTU January 30th, 2014 at 7:25 pm

    When you look at a post like this you can see why people who claim our Farm system is poor are missing the boat a little.

    If things went even close to how Chad proposed our System would jump up in a fairly dramatic
    fashion.

    All it would really take are a significant breakout from 1 or 2 higher level guys.

    There is a lot of talent down there.

    ;)

  8. Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 7:26 pm

    chicken, South Orange, just a couple of blocks from Seton Hall.

  9. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 7:27 pm

    Despite what ESPNer says I still see Banuelos as a starter, some just like to pile on the Yankees. I want to believe he’ll be part of the team at some point this year. I also think Mason Williams has the best shot of being a Gardner type replacement.

  10. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 7:27 pm

    Alemedys Diaz

  11. j9d January 30th, 2014 at 7:28 pm

    Wave Your Hat January 30th, 2014 at 6:27 pm
    MTU-

    Just that at this point in their careers there will be a marked difference in shortstop play between Jeter and Drew. Playing Jeter at short when Drew is clearly the superior defender would be a ludicrous situation and IMO an embarrassing situation to Jeter who would be keenly aware of it, IMO.
    ———————————————————————————-

    Wave

    I never thought about it that way but it makes a lot of sense. Perhaps that’s why the Yankees have (seemingly) not gone after Drew very hard.

  12. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:30 pm

    ys guy – I looked up South Orange… Its 6 miles from our plant. If you don’t mind, I’ll reach out to you (through Chad) when the visit is closer… I’d like to drop by

  13. Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 7:30 pm

    i agree that the ‘jeter complications’ are the reason drew is not a yankee. even with drew at 3b if johnson and roberts are hitting and jeter isnt it could make an unhappy situation for joe g, jeter and drew.

    and as of right now, alex will join that mix next spring…

  14. MTU January 30th, 2014 at 7:31 pm

    Glenn-

    Let me know when you get to Southern Utah.

    :)

  15. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 7:31 pm

    Just leave a good tip.

  16. Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 7:32 pm

    Absolutely chicken! I’d love to have you come check us out, we’re pretty unique and the food is great!

    Breakfast is on me!

  17. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 7:32 pm

    repost:

    Bojo – :lol: do you mean the October before the season begins, or the October after? I have a feeling you meant the October after!!!

    If you are serious in wanting to know – I take predictions up to the first pitch of Opening Day. You can put a prediction in any time between now an then, and if you put one in and then find you want to change if before the first pitch of Opening Day, you can do that too. People can change predictions as many times as they want, as long as it’s before first pitch is thrown!

    :D

    Also, as much as I love you, and I do (we really have a long history!) I have to agree that your take on steroids leads me to believe you are itching to have pot made legal in your state so you don’t have to sneak around smoking it any more!

    The reason I can’t buy the merely extra strength argument is that I think Brady Anderson was dealing with a lot more than extra strength when he had his 56 (?) HR season, long long ago. Also, with all that we know about the deleterious effects of steroids, making them legal is potentially harmful to MLB and leaves open the possibility of multitudinous lawsuits, akin to the concussion argument in NFL – you knew that it was potential dangerous and yet allowed it.

    And if you allow the edge to players who are willing to throw caution to the wind to get that edge, you end up potentially hurting those players who don’t want to chance it because their earning potential will be lessened in comparison to the players who will swill it right down. And you know there will always be some.

    Lawsuits. Let me see. Negligence, intentional infliction of emotional distress, wrongful death (if it should come to that), constructive discharge. That’s all I can think of right now. There are probably others.

  18. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:33 pm

    Mike – one of the few States I haven’t visited, but I’m trying! Don’t think I won’t let you know when I’m headed in that direction ;)

  19. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 7:34 pm

    It’s just a hunch, but I have a feeling that Roberts will have a good year…now to show a history of my hunches…I thought Youkilis was going to have a good year.
    I should tell Trish that if A.J. does sign with the Orioles that I’m so worried to drop my win prediction to 75 games…

  20. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:36 pm

    Howler January 30th, 2014 at 7:34 pm
    It’s just a hunch, but I have a feeling that Roberts will have a good year…now to show a history of my hunches…I thought Youkilis was going to have a good year.

    ——————————————–

    You know, I feel exactly the same way (I even felt the same way about Youk)… maybe we’re eternal optimists… at some point, we’re gonna be right!

  21. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 7:37 pm

    I’m actually glad that Manny B is not in prospect list. To me, that increases the chances that he will make the big leagues as a valuable players for the Yankees.

  22. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 7:38 pm

    “Fair or not, Jagielo is not seen as having an extreme, superstar ceiling. But he certainly has the upside of a productive everyday player,”

    This is a quote from Chad’s article above. Now if I’m wrong on this, and there’s a collection of scouts somewhere who agree with this statement, I apologize in advance. But exactly who has deemed that Jagielo’s ceiling is that of a “productive everyday player.” A couple days ago, somebody on this blog pasted something almost identical to this from some expert’s chat (was it Law?). See this is a perfect example of something I talked about a couple days ago when I introduced the concept of prospect industry bias. This is called “follow the leader.” Some so-called expert says something about a young player’s ceiling, and everyone else just chimes along like it’s the Ten Commandments or something.

    Jagielo’s had like maybe 250 ABs in the NY Penn League. Does anybody really have any idea what his ceiling is? Hey, he could turn out to be the great Eric Duncan which means his ceiling is AAA. Or maybe he’s an All Star. My point is, who knows? Maybe we should let the kid play a year of full season ball before we start setting limits.

    Basically this all goes to the point I alluded to earlier that the Top 100 prospect list probably owes more to gossip than actual analysis.

  23. blake January 30th, 2014 at 7:41 pm

    Blake, your observations about the Yankee infield D is right on the ball. Without the strikeout or fly ball pitchers, those seeing eye grounders can find those bigger spaces. During those championship years of my youth or yoot, they had great defensive table setters in the infield like Rizzuto and Colemen. The power numbers came from the outfield and the catching position.”

    Yea I think if they had good D in the infield they could get by with the offense from the Outfield and the rest…..but right now it’s bad defensively , bad offensively, and very injury prone

  24. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 7:42 pm

    Trish–

    Drat! You caught me!

    I’ll have prediction on Opening Day then!

    My pre-season prediction is that there will be an Opening Day! {Please mark that down}

    BTW–

    I don’t smoke pot, drink alcohol, smoke cigarettes, or use drugs, but I do believe in legalizing pot so that it can be taxed and taken away from organized crime.

    As far as PEDs, I do believe that under physicians direction, they should be allowed. For example, I know several NYC doctors who prescribe HGH to combat effects of aging. I think that is fine.

  25. blake January 30th, 2014 at 7:42 pm

    “I’m pretty sure plenty of prospects have failed/moved to lesser roles due to being injured all the time. Teams have to be able to rely on these guys helping and if they can’t then they fall down the call up ladder.”

    I don’t think we are there yet with Banuelos…..he was the youngest guy in the international league before he got hurt……the Yanks are gonna see if he can make it back and start….as they should

  26. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    Chad–

    “actually, I went Top 15 just to make it easier on myself ”
    ———
    Am I missing something, or didn’t they teach math at your school? ;-)

  27. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    I don’t think we are there yet with Banuelos…..he was the youngest guy in the international league before he got hurt……the Yanks are gonna see if he can make it back and start….as they should

    ———————-

    I think ManBan is generally the forgotten man (by those ranking prospects) on the Yankee farm…. TJS is fairly successful nowadays… He’s still young… It may be my eternal optimism talking but my expectations for him are sky high

  28. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 7:48 pm

    Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 7:30 pm

    “i agree that the ‘jeter complications’ are the reason drew is not a yankee. even with drew at 3b if johnson and roberts are hitting and jeter isnt it could make an unhappy situation for joe g, jeter and drew.

    and as of right now, alex will join that mix next spring”

    ——

    I made this point about a week ago when I pointed out that inserting Drew at 3b and leaving Jeter at SS makes less sense than inserting Arod at 3b when he was acquired years ago. This would be obvious to every fan and member of the clubhouse, especially the pitchers and would create an untenable situation. It’s just one of about six reasons why the Yanks do not regard Drew as a solution for their infield at this point.

    Once there’s more clarity as to Jeter’s health things, however, could change. But the Yanks indicated that this would be their approach when they signed Ryan for two years.

  29. Jerkface January 30th, 2014 at 7:50 pm

    This is a quote from Chad’s article above. Now if I’m wrong on this, and there’s a collection of scouts somewhere who agree with this statement, I apologize in advance.

    Not going to search up a bunch of scout quotes but I think the consensus on him is ‘below average speed, average defense, so so arm, decent power, good hitting’ which sums up to a really nice player to have but not a superstar. Think of the superstars in this league today and then think to their scouting reports and what they did in the minors.

    He is a college player as well, and college players without amazing tools tend to profile as bench->solid regular status. Not being labelled a superstar isn’t the worst thing in the world for a prospect, especially when everyone seems to think he can be a solid major league regular.

  30. MTU January 30th, 2014 at 7:52 pm

    There is good cause for optimism on Banuelos IMO because as some have said TJS is very successful these days and he’s still young for his level.

    His arsenal was already excellent and very polished too.

    He is just going to need to work on his c and c and stay healthy enough to log innings.

    The command is the last thing to return after TJS.

    He can still jump to the head of the class.

    ;)

  31. MTU January 30th, 2014 at 7:56 pm

    The guy to really watch in ST is J-Ram.

    He almost made the Team last Spring.

    He really impressed.

  32. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 8:00 pm

    Jerkface January 30th, 2014 at 7:50 pm

    Not going to search up a bunch of scout quotes but I think the consensus on him is ‘below average speed, average defense, so so arm, decent power, good hitting’ which sums up to a really nice player to have but not a superstar. Think of the superstars in this league today and then think to their scouting reports and what they did in the minors.

    —–

    Really, that sounds like the scouting report of a player who might not even make the majors. Also it sounds very close to the scouting reports for another 3b who turned out pretty good. Wade Boggs (without the power). The fact of the matter is, it’s virtually impossible to predict what even a talented player will do in the major leagues when he’s in short season so I wonder why folks even try. Sure you can talk about his skill set relative to others on that level. That makes sense. But trying to predict ML ceilings at that age is basically a crapshoot, but continues nevertheless and the recitation of the same is part of the prospect industry bias.

  33. blake January 30th, 2014 at 8:00 pm

    “I made this point about a week ago when I pointed out that inserting Drew at 3b and leaving Jeter at SS makes less sense than inserting Arod at 3b when he was acquired years ago. T”

    It makes a lot more sense than playing what they have there so not sure that matters

  34. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:02 pm

    Off the wall question… is there any infomation available as to draft position for players on MLB rosters for particular seasons? To hopefully clarify, is there any way to see the average and median round MLB players were chosen in. For example, in 2013 – major league players – their average round in the draft was xxx and the median round in the draft was xxx

    Just curious

  35. pete2 January 30th, 2014 at 8:04 pm

    I pretty much ignore any prospect who has not completed at least 1/2 season of AA ball and done well. Nobody knows how they will turn out, especially for pitchers.

    A top 10 list for teams is like a top 300-400 list for MLB as a whole. The bust rate for those in the top 100 is 70%, and is much higher for top 300-400 lists. If 2 players from a top 10 list become significant MLB players (league average or higher), the team is fortunate.

    You look at a team like the Red Sox last year, they had 2 homegrown position starters with less than 6 years service time, 2 starting pitchers and 1 key RP’er (Lester and Pedroia had more than 6 yrs service time). Even this year that number is still looking like 2-2-1

    Yankees had 1-2-3 (Jeter and Cano had more than 6 yrs service time), which is what this year is looking like if someone like Phelps lands the 5th

  36. Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 7:42 pm
    As far as PEDs, I do believe that under physicians direction, they should be allowed. For example, I know several NYC doctors who prescribe HGH to combat effects of aging. I think that is fine.
    __________________

    So children, forget everything we tried to teach you about morality and cheating. We’ve changed our minds. If you can con a doctor into prescribing PED’s for you, you can gain an advantage on those that can’t, and those that don’t want to risk their future health. And never mind those athletes that have died from steroid use including Rob Garibaldi a top-level MLB prospect who committed suicide at 24 when his steroids use spiraled out of control, or Efrain Marrero who committed suicide due to steroid use at 19, or Taylor Hooton, 17 who died shortly after he stopped using steroids. Or all the other athletes who suffered serious medical ailments due to PED use. Don’t worry about it! It’s just propaganda!

  37. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    Bojo – big difference between HGH and steroids. I do believe that HGH also can have deleterious side effects but I don’t think it’s anywhere near the danger of steroids.

  38. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 8:09 pm

    “I should tell Trish that if A.J. does sign with the Orioles that I’m so worried to drop my win prediction to 75 games…”

    :lol:

  39. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 8:10 pm

    You can find a Dr. who’ll prescribe just about anything if you look in the right places.

  40. j9d January 30th, 2014 at 8:11 pm

    MLB Tonight just did a five minute story praising AJ Burnett, saying he has found his game again and will be great for the O’s and at the front of their rotation. Geez.

  41. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 8:13 pm

    Blojaldo – here’s the difficulty. Not everyone cares about cheating, and there are people who will do anything to get ahead, and they sleep well at night in spite of the conniving, hurting others in the process, and setting bad examples to children. They just don’t care. They live their lives to get ahead. Period.

    So when people like us, who do care about cheating and morality, and teaching children not to cheat, come along, they hear the message as nothing more than white noise. JMO

  42. trisha - true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 8:14 pm

    “You can find a Dr. who’ll prescribe just about anything if you look in the right places.”

    Without question. Calling Dr. Gallea! Calling Dr. Gross!

  43. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:15 pm

    Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    Doesn’t sound like those players were under a doctors care, does it? That was my point BTW.

  44. Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 8:18 pm

    Burnett sucked down the pennant stretch both of the past 2 seasons and last year when the Bucs did make the PS despite his suckiness in august and september, he really turned up the suckiness in the PS giving up 7 ER in 2 Innings in his only appearance.

    he never lost ‘his game’ that is ‘his game.

  45. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:18 pm

    Howler January 30th, 2014 at 8:10 pm
    You can find a Dr. who’ll prescribe just about anything if you look in the right places.

    —————–

    Reminds me of my first trip to L.A. a couple of years ago. I wanted to do a bullet tour of the city so one of my stops was Venice Beach… As I walked toward the beach, one of the first things I saw was a Doctor’s office… As the ultimate hayseed, my first thought was “wow, thats pretty nice! A Dr’s office has been set up on the boardwalk to administer first aid, or take care of any medical problems the visitors may have.” Only after I passed the “Dr’s office” did I realize it was a place to get a card for medical marijuana. LOL! I felt like an imbecile :)

  46. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:20 pm

    Just like MLB regulates agents, it could also regulate doctors who treat players with PEDs. If MLB admitted that usage was wide-spread, they might stand a better chance of regulating which ones were allowed and which PEDs were too dangerous.

    Some may look at this as a morale issue, and that is fine. I look at it more as facing the reality of the situation and trying to prevent potential dangers from unsupervised use.

  47. Jerkface January 30th, 2014 at 8:22 pm

    Really, that sounds like the scouting report of a player who might not even make the majors.

    Yea which is probably why his ceiling is not super star.

  48. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 8:22 pm

    pete2 January 30th, 2014 at 8:04 pm

    I pretty much ignore any prospect who has not completed at least 1/2 season of AA ball and done well. Nobody knows how they will turn out, especially for pitchers.

    A top 10 list for teams is like a top 300-400 list for MLB as a whole. The bust rate for those in the top 100 is 70%, and is much higher for top 300-400 lists. If 2 players from a top 10 list become significant MLB players (league average or higher), the team is fortunate.

    ——-

    I agree, I believe, and have said many times, until a prospect performs well at AA they have little actual value.

    I’ll go even a little further on Top 10 lists. I think they are so inefficient that the Yanks should make that inefficiency part of their trading strategy. I’ve said before, I think, when the time is right, the Yanks should always trade their number one prospect. I’m thinking now, probably they should be willing to trade their top three. This is an evolution of a theory I developed several years ago when I proposed that the Yanks, if they were to trade for Santana, they should keep Kennedy and Joba and trade Hughes, because a team should always trade their prospect who’s most likely to be over-valued. For the Yanks, it always seems to be their number one rated prospect.

    I actually think the Yanks, comparatively, have done a reasonable job of developing minor league talent. Maybe that’s an over-statement, but they haven’t been awful. What’s been awful is the development of their top two or three guys and I have no idea why that’s the case. But think who’d be in the Yankee lineup right now if they were willing to trade say their top two prospects over the last 10 years or so. Miguel Cabrera. Maybe Hanley Ramirez. Go back a little further maybe Pedro. The Yanks have had some pretty highly rated top guys. Ruben Rivera was among the best in the country. Nick Johnson. Phil and Joba. Montero. Eric Milton (see that’s what I’m talking about).

    This doesn’t have to be a hard and fast rule, but it’s def one to use judiciously. The Yanks do develop useful players. But it’s the ones who are hyped the most who almost always seem to disappoint.

  49. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 8:25 pm

    chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:18 pm
    Howler January 30th, 2014 at 8:10 pm
    You can find a Dr. who’ll prescribe just about anything if you look in the right places.

    —————–

    Reminds me of my first trip to L.A. a couple of years ago. I wanted to do a bullet tour of the city so one of my stops was Venice Beach… As I walked toward the beach, one of the first things I saw was a Doctor’s office… As the ultimate hayseed, my first thought was “wow, thats pretty nice! A Dr’s office has been set up on the boardwalk to administer first aid, or take care of any medical problems the visitors may have.” Only after I passed the “Dr’s office” did I realize it was a place to get a card for medical marijuana. LOL! I felt like an imbecile

    ——

    I can’t believe you fell for that! Hey, it’s Venice Beach. They superimpose an herb on the sign!

  50. blake January 30th, 2014 at 8:27 pm

    I really don’t care if Jagelo is a star…..I’m hoping merely for big league regular and if he’s more than that it’s gravy. The yanks have to star producing average big leaguers at the minimum to offset some payroll

  51. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:28 pm

    Bigdan – I admitted I’m a hayseed… don’t rub it in :D

  52. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:29 pm

    Bigdan–

    I like that strategy idea.

  53. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 8:30 pm

    So you didn’t go in and tell him that you were feeling lonely and depressed and needed something to make you feel better :)

  54. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 8:31 pm

    Could’ve gotten some gummies…

  55. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:31 pm

    Howler – lol :)

  56. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 8:32 pm

    chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:28 pm
    Bigdan – I admitted I’m a hayseed… don’t rub it in :D

    ——

    Don’t go to NY. They got this game you see on the sidewalk. It’s like, ahh, forget about it!

  57. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:34 pm

    O just hope that the prospect list next year includes 5 international players signed in the near future.

  58. bigdan22 January 30th, 2014 at 8:37 pm

    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:29 pm
    Bigdan–

    I like that strategy idea.

    ——-

    Thx. I haven’t totally come around to your way of thinking on PEDs but give me a few years. I do think something should be done so players can legally take the best drugs possible that will allow them to recover from injuries. That probably won’t be easy to regulate but if I were commissioner I’d meet with the union and start a study group or something to come up with a workable plan. Hell, let Mitchell head it up if he’s still breathing :)

  59. Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 8:42 pm

    trisha – true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 8:13 pm
    Blojaldo – here’s the difficulty. Not everyone cares about cheating, and there are people who will do anything to get ahead, and they sleep well at night in spite of the conniving, hurting others in the process, and setting bad examples to children. They just don’t care. They live their lives to get ahead. Period.

    So when people like us, who do care about cheating and morality, and teaching children not to cheat, come along, they hear the message as nothing more than white noise. JMO
    _______________

    Well articulated. I think the most persuasive practical argument against PED’s as we have discussed previously, is that their legal use would in essence force everyone to use them, or suffer a competitive disadvantage.

  60. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:43 pm

    Get some of these players signed…

    http://bleacherreport.com/arti.....umors-news

  61. Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 8:46 pm

    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:15 pm
    Doesn’t sound like those players were under a doctors care, does it? That was my point BTW.
    _____________

    Thank you great point! Yours truly, Drs. Tony Galea and Michael Gross

  62. UpState January 30th, 2014 at 8:50 pm

    chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:02 pm
    Off the wall question… is there any infomation available as to draft position for players on MLB rosters for particular seasons? To hopefully clarify, is there any way to see the average and median round MLB players were chosen in. For example, in 2013 – major league players – their average round in the draft was xxx and the median round in the draft was xxx

    Just curious
    ===========================

    Attention College Kids !
    Here’s a great ‘term paper’ idea !
    Develop it with each teams’ drafting order and you can come up with a great paper…
    …and one that’ll be up for some great debates !

  63. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:51 pm

    Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 8:46 pm
    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:15 pm
    Doesn’t sound like those players were under a doctors care, does it? That was my point BTW.
    _____________

    Thank you great point! Yours truly, Drs. Tony Galea and Michael Gross

    So, you are saying those suicides were of players under the care of Drs. Tony Galea and Michael Gross? Is that right? Do you have proof btw?

    And if you carefully read my comments above, I said MLB could regulate which doctors were allowed to administer PEDs to players. That gets rid of the quacks.

    But I guess it is easier to keep a closed mind and just hurl random, unrelated comments, isn’t it?

  64. MTU January 30th, 2014 at 8:52 pm

    Thanks for the article Bojo.

  65. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:54 pm

    You’re welcome MTU.

  66. Ys Guy January 30th, 2014 at 8:56 pm

    It’s hard to believe that the Castros haven’t figured out a way to let the best Cubans come play in the U.S. keep thier cuban residences and live with their families in Cuba.

    Players from Venezuela are free to play in the U.S. but the Cubans have to risk their lives and give up their homeland and family members forever to play baseball in the U.S. And how embarrasing is it every time you read about another Cuban player risking his life to get out of the country just to play baseball.

    These guys should be allowed to play MLB then come home and play winter ball in Cuba and even wear the Cuban uniform in the WBC.

    It makes no sense but in the overall U.S. – Cuban relationship, what does?

  67. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:57 pm

    Hi Upstate. good to see you

  68. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:00 pm

    YS Guy–

    I agree. And I am somewhat surprised that Toronto never took advantage of their relationship with Cuba to get great players to sign with them. That would have been a major strategic advantage if they could have worked a deal with Castro.

  69. Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 9:02 pm

    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 8:51 pm
    And if you carefully read my comments above, I said MLB could regulate which doctors were allowed to administer PEDs to players. That gets rid of the quacks.
    __________________

    Right! Because doctors are so moral and above board and would never succumb to millionaires “pressuring” them to write a scrip. And because MLB is so eminently qualified to medically certify which doctors should be allowed to dispense PED’s to players.

  70. pete2 January 30th, 2014 at 9:05 pm

    ” chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 8:02 pm

    Off the wall question… is there any infomation available as to draft position for players on MLB rosters for particular seasons? To hopefully clarify, is there any way to see the average and median round MLB players were chosen in. For example, in 2013 – major league players – their average round in the draft was xxx and the median round in the draft was xxx

    Just curious”

    I would like to see that as well. Just for fun, looking at AL hitters with 600 PA or more last year. PA as a proxy for effectiveness.

    There were 43 players. 12 were international amateur free agents. Of those that came from the draft, over 1/2 were 1st rounders, although 3 were supplementary 1st rounders. Range was from 1 (Josh Hamilton) -to the 48th pick (Lowrie), average of 17. The other 15 picks were , 6 were from the 2nd and 3rd round, the remaining 9 ranged from 3-18.

    Notable late (not 1st) round players. Pedroia, Davis, Hardy, Trumbo, Kinsler, Zobrist, Encarnacion, Gardner, Austin Jackson, Brantley, Dunn

    No time to look at pitchers though.

  71. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:14 pm

    Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 9:02 pm

    Right! Because doctors are so moral and above board and would never succumb to millionaires “pressuring” them to write a scrip. And because MLB is so eminently qualified to medically certify which doctors should be allowed to dispense PED’s to players.

    You could say the same about agents and yet, MLB does oversee them. In case you are not familiar, there are good practice examples for regulating physicians. For example, pain treatment centers are under intense scrutiny to make sure they have proper protocols in place for treatment with narcotics. But I guess thinking outside the box isn’t your thing…I get it.

  72. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:17 pm

    Chicken–

    I remember reading a study last year about the question you asked. Basically the findings were that having a top 10 draft pick greatly increased the chance of effectiveness (WAR valuation). The was a big drop off after pick 15 IIRC.

  73. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 9:18 pm

    Good thing MLB is making an effort to clean up PED’s in the game

    Going in that direction will keep silly ideas like dispensing PED’s through licensed MD’s to players far from reality

    More testing, more suspensions ! ! !

  74. Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 9:22 pm

    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:14 pm
    “You could say the same about agents and yet, MLB does oversee them.”
    _____________
    Right! What a superb analogy! Because agents make decisions which directly affect a player’s medical well being.

  75. pete2 January 30th, 2014 at 9:22 pm

    trisha – true pinstriped blue January 30th, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    “Bojo – big difference between HGH and steroids. I do believe that HGH also can have deleterious side effects but I don’t think it’s anywhere near the danger of steroids.”

    Steroids are dangerous when used improperly and at massive dosages like body builders/weight lifter do and players used to do in the early days when they went to the bat boy for advice. Testosterone is safely given to elderly and AIDS patients in therapeutic dosages. Frequent blood tests to ensure there is no adverse effects on the kidneys and liver and cholesterol levels , and cardiovascular tests can help keep players safe.

    Players can legally use DHEA which is a testosterone precursor (and banned by WADA, NFL, NBA) and creatine. Neither of these supplements have been as rigorously tested as HGH or synthetic testosterone and players may be risking their health with these as well.

    I think the sport is better off without all of these drugs though, but doubt MLB should be handling the enforcement. Its best left to 3rd party organizations since MLB has a conflict of interest. On the one hand they want to improve their image, OTOH they want to make sure they don’t lose young cost controlled stars who make a ton of money for their teams. Which is probably why the only players who seem to test positive are those soon to be free agents, players with big contracts, or low level players.

    I also like the idea of players getting certification showing they are clean, and getting a 10% salary bump for their efforts. Such a certification agency, independent of MLB, could require frequent and random testing 24/7, even in the offseason. I suspect MLB’s program, which is agreed to by MLBPA has many loopholes for players to exploit.

  76. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:22 pm

    Oh goodness…when Can of Corn, Baby Ruth, and Blojaldo appear, you know that WCYF has too much time on his hands.

    Sorry dude, you aren’t worth my time to respond to anymore. Talk amongst yourself.

  77. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 9:23 pm

    Pete2 – very cool post. I’ll have to admit I’m surprised… 1/2 were 1st rounders. I would have thought the percentage of later round picks would have been much higher! I guess my perception in this case did not mirror reality.

  78. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 9:26 pm

    Bojo – like Pete2′s post, I’m surprised at the results you posted. I would have thought the chance of success for a high first rounder was much less. I guess I’ve been underestimating scouts :)

  79. Blojaldo January 30th, 2014 at 9:29 pm

    pete2 January 30th, 2014 at 9:22 pm

    Excellent post! I love your idea that players get rewarded for getting certification that they are clean. It would also serve to “highlight” those who don’t get the certification and could be legitimately used by the clubs when making decisions on free agent signings, arbitration, trades, extensions, etc.

  80. BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:30 pm

    Chicken–

    The evidence explains why the Rays have done so well compared to Yankees as far as producing young talent. High draft selections really do matter.

  81. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 9:32 pm

    BoJo January 30th, 2014 at 9:22 pm

    You are a ‘tard’ aren’t you ?

    First it’s make PED’s available to MLB players through MD’s

    Which will eventually have a trickle down effect to College, High School and Little League ball players

    Now its the same ole routine of accusing others of being someone they are not when one doesn’t agree and calls you on it

    Everyone has an opinion here which is the point of a blog, good, bad, whether you agree or disagree

    Now please stop with the senseless accusations

  82. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 9:33 pm

    Bojo – true enough. I was convinced that player development far and away trumped draft position .. maybe I need to rethink…

  83. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 9:38 pm

    Can of Corn – please ease up on the “tard” comments. I have an autistic child who has been called a “retard” repeatedly by classmates. I know you didn’t mean anything by it… not chastising you…

  84. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 9:41 pm

    Chicken:

    No problem, sorry to hear that :(

    Just really dislike being accusing of being someone else that I’m not

    Thanks for letting me know

  85. PhiltheThrill January 30th, 2014 at 9:41 pm

    Nice list Chad.

    On of the big questions about Manny will be if he ever recovers the added velo he had developed before the injury. He was just trying to harness it when he got hurt.

    I think it will be hard to tell how good Jagielo is till he makes the bigs, because the parks with suppress his lefty bat. So road splits will be important. I’m using Pags as the worst case scenario and unknown for the upside.

    Hopefully, this year we’ll start seeing some Gil Patterson success stories. We really didn’t see any last year, but now he’ll have had two full off seasons to get his ideas installed.

  86. Howler January 30th, 2014 at 9:42 pm

    http://extramustard.si.com/201.....?eref=sihp

    Then he set his car on fire.

  87. bbb51 January 30th, 2014 at 9:43 pm

    blake January 30th, 2014 at 7:41 pm
    Blake, your observations about the Yankee infield D is right on the ball. Without the strikeout or fly ball pitchers, those seeing eye grounders can find those bigger spaces. During those championship years of my youth or yoot, they had great defensive table setters in the infield like Rizzuto and Colemen. The power numbers came from the outfield and the catching position.”

    Yea I think if they had good D in the infield they could get by with the offense from the Outfield and the rest…..but right now it’s bad defensively , bad offensively, and very injury prone

    I don’t think it’s as bad as you are saying. You probably are influenced by your desire for Drew. :)

    Tex is above average at 1B, Roberts is average, Jeter is below average range-wise but good at everything else, Johnson can probably be average at 3B, and when Ryan plays he is very good. They can win with that. Jeter and Roberts are injury concerns, yes.

  88. chicken_stanley January 30th, 2014 at 9:44 pm

    Can of corn – no problem… years ago, I would have posted the same with a smile and no 2nd thoughts… its just turned out to be a hurtful word (for me and many others)… I appreciate you not taking umbrage with my post

  89. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 9:54 pm

    Chicken:

    I get that, really.

    I do fundraising for tuition assistance for kids in need that have learning disabilities. I know better. it just slipped out.

    Your post was fine, again my apologies

  90. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 9:55 pm

    Bojo:

    Please excuse the ‘word’ in question

  91. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 10:02 pm

    bbb51 January 30th, 2014 at 9:43 pm

    Tex is above average at 1B, Roberts is average, Jeter is below average range-wise but good at everything else, Johnson can probably be average at 3B, and when Ryan plays he is very good. They can win with that. Jeter and Roberts are injury concerns, yes.

    —————

    Do you believe that the influx of new offensive talent including the returns of Tex and Jeet will significantly improve the offense (run production) and OF defense to offset the defensive weakness of the INF ?

  92. Can of Corn January 30th, 2014 at 10:02 pm

    New One :arrow:

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