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Buying or selling some early season trends?

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on Apr 28, 2014 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Derek Jeter

Here are a few early developments this season. Which of these are you buying as long-term situations, and which are you dismissing as products of a small sample size?

Derek Jeter as the No. 2 hitter
Hitting second in the Yankees order, Jeter has been a viable table-setter this season. He’s hitting .276 but with a .360 on-base percentage. He’s not hitting for much power and he hasn’t stolen a base, but he’s done a good job of reaching first and setting the stage for the middle of the order. That said, Jeter’s splits are significant. He’s been a superstar against lefties with an OBP well above .400, but he’s had a hard time hitting .200 against right-handers. Is it worth eventually dropping Jeter lower in the order against right-handed starters?

Masahiro Tanaka as an elite starter
We’re pretty well beyond the point of wondering whether Tanaka can make the transition from Japan to the big leagues. Clearly he’s capable of pitching here, and clearly he’s able to handle all that comes with being an international superstar. What’s still undecided is just how good he can be. Right now, Tanaka has been a truly elite pitcher. Even after last night’s game — when his season walk total tripled — Tanaka is still striking out a ton of hitters while carrying a 2.27 ERA. At some point, are major-league hitters going to catch up to the new guy, or have the Yankees legitimately found a No. 1 starter for the foreseeable future?

Mark TeixeiraMiddle of the order as an offensive disappointment
Carlos Beltran is slugging .538, best on the team. Rounding out the Yankees top five in slugging percentage so far are John Ryan Murphy, Scott Sizemore, Kelly Johnson and Yangervis Solarte. Outside of Beltran, the middle of the order really hasn’t been explosive. Alfonso Soriano has four home runs, but also a team-high 21 strikeouts. Brian McCann has a .649 OPS that’s fifth-worst on the team (ahead of only Roberts, Anna, Cervelli and Romine). Mark Teixeira has missed enough time that he has only three extra-base hits. Do those overall numbers cause concern, or does the fact that Soriano, McCann and Teixeira have been much better lately leave enough room for optimism?

Adam Warren in the seventh inning
Given an early chance to claim a late-inning role in the Yankees relatively inexperienced bullpen, Warren has made the most of his opportunity. He got some big outs last night, opponents are hitting .184 against him, and he has a 0.93 WHIP (which is the same as Masahiro Tanaka’s). For now, it seems clear that the seventh inning is his (or at least, it belongs to Warren as much as it belongs to anyone). Question is whether that’s going to continue, which could be seen as two questions in one: Is Warren going to keep pitching well enough to keep this spot, or Dellin Betances going to eventually surpass him?

Ichiro Suzuki as a .333 hitter
There’s still an overwhelming sample-size issue here. Ichiro has played in 20 games this season, and he’s hitting .333 (granted, with only one walk). In his past nine games — almost half of his season — he’s hitting .188. In his past 10 games — exactly half of his season — he’s hitting .250. Ichiro still at the stage where one good game or one bad game generates a significant statistical change. He went 0-for-3 last night and his batting average dropped almost 30 points. But this is the second year in a row that we’ve seen Ichiro hit pretty well against lefties. It’s a strange sort of platoon — a left-handed hitter getting most of his starts against left-handed pitchers — but it seems to be working for him. Is he going to hit his way into more regular playing time, or is this the role in which he’s going to be productive?

Yangervis Solarte as an everyday player
After his ridiculous start to the season, Solarte’s numbers have come back to earth a little bit. He’s still hitting extremely well, but a .301/.400/.452 slash line isn’t completely absurd. The question isn’t whether Solarte can be an all-star, it’s whether he can stay productive enough to deserve regular at-bats ahead of either Kelly Johnson or Brian Roberts. For now, it seems that Joe Girardi envisions a kind of rotation with Johnson always playing against righties. Problem is, none of the three has been especially good against lefties this season. Even Solarte is hitting .243/.300/.351 against them. In another four weeks, are you expecting Solarte to still be deserving of regular playing time? Do you think the two veterans can convincingly outplay him at some point?

Associated Press photos

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112 Responses to “Buying or selling some early season trends?”

  1. Ys Guy April 28th, 2014 at 9:09 am

    BIG win last night, that guy was really dealing!

    imo its too early to start comparing divisions. most games have been in-division and while i tend to think of the AL West as a hitting division they do have 2 extreme pitcher’s parks and the worst hitting team in baseball to factor in.

  2. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 9:23 am

    Tanaka is the most sure bet of the ones on this list. His stuff is legit, but the big thing is he is a truly competitive SOB. I love that part. Great at bearing down when needed. He wont go 24-0, but he might go 20-8.

    I’m almost as confident in Adam Warren. He had one lousy outing, but has not been scored on in any of his other appearances.

    They really could use a legit MLB hitter (preferably RH) that can play 2B or 3B. Not convinced Solarte + Roberts + Johnson will produce enough in those three spots.

  3. CountryClub April 28th, 2014 at 9:26 am

    That pitcher for the Angels last night had the best FB I’ve seen all year. And it’s not really close.

  4. Ys Guy April 28th, 2014 at 9:29 am

    all the online hitters in the game thread were having no problem with richards and were mocking the yankees hitters for not being as good as they are.

  5. CountryClub April 28th, 2014 at 9:35 am

    I’m generally not one to give Kruk any credit, but he mentioned this last night he was dead on. There were numerous times where the pitch broke so much that I was sure it was a slider and when I looked at the gun it said 96 mph. His FB is insane.

  6. Ys Guy April 28th, 2014 at 9:39 am

    it looks like the yankees will miss richards next week in anaheim.

  7. Chip April 28th, 2014 at 9:53 am

    To Chad’s questions:

    1. I think Jeter will be fine. I know it’s hokey and everyone who complains about Derek Jeter being overrated is going to take this as another example, but I think with this being his final year he just won’t allow himself to have a bad season.

    2. I do think Tanaka has what it takes to be the Yankees number one pitcher by the end of the season – the key will be how he fares his second or third time out against some of these teams.

    3. I think the middle of the lineup will be fine. Soriano won’t be as good as he was for the Yankees last year, but he’ll get his 25 HR and hit around .245, Tex and Beltran will pick it up and McCann will figure out a way to raise his average and get some lift under the ball.

    4. I don’t particularly like Adam Warren in the 7th simply because I think he has more value as a starter; that said, I’m confident he can do it.

    5. No I don’t buy Ichiro as a .333 hitter. I’ve been impressed with his professionalism at going from one of the elite players in the game to a 4th OF batting in the 9 spot. Girardi has done a fantastic job of giving him playing time in a way that makes sense.

    6. I don’t know about Solarte. I forget who said it, probably Joe Torre, but someone said that what separates a major league player from a AAAA player is how they handle a breaking ball. Solarte has been seeing a lot of breaking balls lately and his numbers have been tumbling. How he adjusts to that – if he’s capable of adjusting to that – will be the determining factor in whether or not he produces enough to play every day at this level.

  8. NYY fan in NH April 28th, 2014 at 9:55 am

    Besides his composure and competitiveness, Tanaka can be better once the warm weather settles in. He didn’t have his FB early, but seemed to get it later in the game. Cold weather seemed to affect him early in the game with his grip.

  9. Chip April 28th, 2014 at 9:56 am

    Random Off Day Question:

    Which active players, if they retired tomorrow, would be Hall of Famers?

    Jeter
    Ichiro
    Pujols
    Miggy Cabrera
    David Ortiz
    Justin Verlander
    Carlos Beltran

  10. michaellord6 April 28th, 2014 at 10:03 am

    I think Scott Sizemore needs to be brought back up and platoon 3rd base with KJ. Let Solarte and Roberts compete for 2nd base.

  11. michaellord6 April 28th, 2014 at 10:04 am

    To bring up Sizemore, I think Solarte or Roberts needs to go (probably Solarte). At least for now. Roberts Solarte Johnson doesn’t get it done vs righties.

  12. Ys Guy April 28th, 2014 at 10:04 am

    jeter, ichiro, pujols, and miggy.

  13. jlyanks85 April 28th, 2014 at 10:07 am

    For your question chip- Jeter, Ichrio, Pujols, Miggy are locks. Verlander has hall of fame numbers early in his early but doesn’t have enough of a career yet to be in HOF right now. Beltran is a borderline hall of famer, especially for being a switch hitter.

    Unfortunately as it pains me to say it Ortiz could get in for being one of the best Dhs of all time. Even with the steroid stuff with him.

  14. pkyankfan69 April 28th, 2014 at 10:11 am

    If Ortiz gets in they better put Arod, Bonds, and Clemens in also

  15. Ys Guy April 28th, 2014 at 10:11 am

    ortiz had both the dh thing and steroids keeping him out. also no 500 HR or 1500 RBI.

  16. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 10:12 am

    Jeter, Ichiro, Miggy and Pujols

    Not the others… yet. Verlander with 140 wins is the furthest away

  17. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 10:16 am

    There’s nothing in his background that tells me Sizemore is anything more than Solarte or Anna or Ryan…. he’s a backup. His best season in the minors was in 2009.

    Bottom line is the Yanks are going to be in the bottom third of MLB at 2B, SS, 3B.

  18. bigdan22 April 28th, 2014 at 10:21 am

    “Hey good series…..keep winning series…..that’s the way to go”

    ——

    I’ve written about this before. I think this is a common misconception about a successful season, that is, winning each series. Especially in the context of a three game series which are often as commonly won as lost.

    There are three keys to a successful season. 1. Have several short to medium winning streaks (4-6 games) and perhaps one long winning streak (7 or more);, 2. Avoid losing streaks (losing more than 3 games in a row) and 3. Tread water the rest of the time.

    Joe Torre used to say the path to successful season is adding 5 games to .500 every month. When you get to around 25 games over you are probably a playoff team. I agree with that.

    This month, almost concluded, the Yanks are 5 games over .500. This has occurred exactly the way I described above. One five game winning streak, surrounded by two periods of treading water. The Yanks started out 5-6, then won 5 in a row, and have been 5-4 since.

    It’s important not to get in the mindset of “winning series” because it may subtly impede a team from dong the most important thing–keep winning. It’s the winning streaks that provide a team with it’s distance above .500. Without them, a team just alternates winning and losing series and gets nowhere.

  19. dan l April 28th, 2014 at 10:22 am

    Jeter stinks against right handed pitchers…get him off the field against them as the only time he’s hit them in the last 4 years was the second half of 2012. 30% K rate against them hitting in the second spot in the lineup…get him off the field…can’t wait until he is gone!

  20. michaellord6 April 28th, 2014 at 10:26 am

    dan l…

    …what…

  21. Mottsx April 28th, 2014 at 10:28 am

    Jeter, Ichiro and Pujols if they retired tomorrow. If Cabrera retires at 34 (like Pujols is today) at his pace, he’s a Hall of Famer, not tomorrow.

  22. Ys Guy April 28th, 2014 at 10:29 am

    all the air just went out of the room. later.

  23. Chip April 28th, 2014 at 10:34 am

    86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 10:12 am

    Jeter, Ichiro, Miggy and Pujols

    Not the others… yet. Verlander with 140 wins is the furthest away
    ——————–

    Verlander’s rankings are really good – 6 time All Star, ROY, MVP and CY Young in the same year. 3 time leader in Ks and career 3.39 ERA

  24. mick April 28th, 2014 at 10:39 am

    Jay Z and Beyoncé announce summer tour. It does not hit Yankee Stadium, but does hit Safeco Field.
    ===========
    Coincidence?
    Turn in your Yankee cap JZ.

  25. mick April 28th, 2014 at 10:40 am

    I’ve written about this before.
    ===================
    Is it in the book?

  26. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 10:45 am

    Chip —-

    Verlander has been great. But there’s no way a guy with 140 wins is getting consideration. He’s not in the same world as Sandy Koufax.

  27. DONNYBROOK April 28th, 2014 at 10:46 am

    - MONDAY MORNING MUSINGS -

    (1) Yanks did well to get around Richards. He has to be in the Top 10 of MLB Starters. He reminds me of Vintage Verlander. All Richards needs is Confidence at this point.

    (2) Don’t know about Gardner’s being “available” last night, but somebody should have been pinch running for McCann in the 8th last night with a 1 run lead. A pinch runner would have advanced to 2B on that ball that skipped away from the catcher, negating the inning ending DP, and netting an insurance run.

    (3) The empty seats in Yankee Stadium and the ensuing lowered decibel level = Pitiful.

    (4) ESPN announcers avoided mentioning what is Quickly becoming a Debacle in Boston.

    (5) Girardi has obviously reached that desired “comfort level” with Warren. Like Torre, once they achieve that status, Girardi will ride ‘em till they drop. Betances will have to wait in line.

    (6) If Ellsbury is going to steal 60+, then Jeet likewise needs to Start taking some pitches.

    (7) If Trout was on my team, he would bat Leadoff. The guy is Rickey Henderson, and lucky for us Rickey died on deck last night.

  28. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 10:49 am

    I like Miggy’s chances right now.

    If his career were cut short he’d get serious Cooperstown consideration.

    2X MVP, 3X Batting Champ, Triple Crown, 154 career OPS, 9X 30 + HR, 100 + RBI

    Helluva resume

  29. mick April 28th, 2014 at 10:49 am

    If Ortiz gets in they better put Arod, Bonds, and Clemens in also
    ========================================
    Ortiz would be a totally emotional, irrational decision.
    He somehow stays above the steroid fray.
    Vendetta more describes the others.

  30. trisha - true pinstriped blue April 28th, 2014 at 10:50 am

    “Morning all !!

    To me the biggest thing about last night was the Teixeira HR from the left side. While I’ve called for him to become a full-time RH hitter, he shut me up (for now) with that blast off a 95 MPH fast ball.”

    86, you cannot believe what an angel in disguise you are for me this morning! Last night Prufrock took a shot at me (for a change), this time suggesting that I didn’t know what a switch hitter was. And of course, his sidekick Unknown couldn’t jump on it fast enough, talking about the need for a baseball IQ test. And then their typical join snickering followed. Well enough about juvenile behavior…

    When Tex hit his first homer, I basically called out people who were down on Tex. As part of that, I mentioned that some people also didn’t want Tex batting left-handed anymore and but they felt the Yankees would never turn him around – meaning have him bat exclusively RH. Someone on the game thread misinterpreted what I said and responded that the Yankees didn’t turn him around for the AB in question, he’s a switch hitter. Of course I knew that but let it go because it wasn’t responsive to my point, that people were also down on Tex batting from the left side, as well as being down on him in general.

    Your post this morning helped to clarify the point I was trying to make that day. And you weren’t the only one who mentioned he should be batting RH exclusively. So thanks for making my day! You know when they say the good Lord provides? Well provide He does.

    :)

  31. bigdan22 April 28th, 2014 at 10:51 am

    “Bottom line is the Yanks are going to be in the bottom third of MLB at 2B, SS, 3B.”

    ——

    I don’t think that will be true offensively. The bar for those positions is pretty low. If Jeter performs close to how he’s performed so far,the Yanks will probably be in the top third at SS. At present, I imagine because of Solarte and Sizemore they are near the top at 3B production. They aren’t doing so well at 2b but they are probably no more than a couple good days from average.

    The Yanks offense has been a modest disappointment so far. I think the key to improvement is the middle–Beltran, Tex, McCann and Soriano. They need to step it up a notch, especially in OBP. Hard to believe Tex OBP is .380 now but he’s getting a lot of walks. The other guys are making too many outs. But the Yanks are 5 games over .500 and it’s not because of luck. If the rotation is strong, their offense appears to be good enough.

  32. Deal With It April 28th, 2014 at 10:51 am

    Great Win last night !

    Now when Tanaka has a hicup hopefully the doom and gloomers here will cut him a break

  33. CountryClub April 28th, 2014 at 10:56 am

    Girardi has obviously reached that desired “comfort level” with Warren. Like Torre, once they achieve that status, Girardi will ride ‘em till they drop. Betances will have to wait in line.

    ————

    Betances wasn’t available last night and I would guess neither was Kelley. They both pitched more than 1 inning the day before (2+ for betances).

    I actually like that Girardi is willing to use these guys for more than one inning. The simple fact is, the more relievers you use in one game, the better the odds that one of them doesn’t have it that night. Warren had good stuff in the 7th last night, no need to roll the dice and bring in somebody else for the 8th.

    It’s a bit unconventional, but I like it. I hope Girardi keeps it up.

  34. Jerkface April 28th, 2014 at 10:56 am

    I don’t know why Tex hitting a HR from the left side is supposed to shut anyone up about how he hits overall from the left side. This again speaks to the misconception that players in baseball who are bad or below average at something must fail in every single opportunity. Tex can hit a HR from the left side and still be a weak hitter from that side. He could hit 10 from that side and be a weak hitter overall. Why should 1 Hr shut up anyone who thinks he should not hit lefty anymore? Stick to your guns, damn.

    Peoples need to call out other people based on 1 significant event happening is mind boggling to me as a baseball fan. When has baseball ever been about 1 thing? Or a handful of things?

    Since 2010 Tex is hitting: .231 .328 .443 from the left side. .283 .381 .548 from the right side. Which of those players would you rather have full time? He has 64 HRs lefty during that span. 37 righty, in half as many PAs.

  35. Chip April 28th, 2014 at 10:58 am

    86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 10:16 am

    There’s nothing in his background that tells me Sizemore is anything more than Solarte or Anna or Ryan…. he’s a backup. His best season in the minors was in 2009.

    Bottom line is the Yanks are going to be in the bottom third of MLB at 2B, SS, 3B.
    ————————

    I think over the course of a full season the Yankees will get about a .250 avg and 25 HR out of 3b.

    They won’t get power out of 2b, but if Roberts stays healthy he’ll give them speed and solid defense

    Jeter will be Jeter. I say .275, .330 OBP with 12 HR.

  36. pkyankfan69 April 28th, 2014 at 10:58 am

    CC is only about 92 wins away from the HOF… It’s an outside shot but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win 300 games… CC would have to stay healthy and do his best older AP impression for another 7-8 years or so

  37. bigdan22 April 28th, 2014 at 11:02 am

    I’ve never called for Tex to drop switch-hitting because quite frankly it’s never going to happen. I learned my lesson when I called for Jeter to switch positions three years ago.

  38. mick April 28th, 2014 at 11:03 am

    In theory, if they are ALL using, then no one will ever get into the HOF again, correct?
    Wouldn’t that be incentive to go easy on them?

  39. mick April 28th, 2014 at 11:05 am

    What does Tex have left here barring a trade?
    2-3 years.
    He plays in a short porch and they still like a hairy monster.
    What he did last night should be proof enough, he’s not changing the fact that he’s a switcher.

  40. bigdan22 April 28th, 2014 at 11:11 am

    “Yanks did well to get around Richards. He has to be in the Top 10 of MLB Starters”

    ——

    I’m not sure he’s Top 10 because I’m not sure how consistent he’s been. If you’re just talking stuff, he might be Top 1. You can’t square up his fastball and hit it hard. Once he starts learning how to really use his secondary pitches, he might strike out 20 guys. If there were such a thing as “no-hitter futures” I’d be loading up on Richards.

  41. mick April 28th, 2014 at 11:13 am

    They are more relying on Ellsbury’s bat than his speed to steal bases.
    They haven’t become a speed 1st team yet so HankFla should stop worrying.
    Whether or not Ells is on his own last night with Jeter up, this is still Jeters team.
    He swung and fouled off a pitch he had stolen, so did Girardi give the sign?
    Ells is just reluctant to run and take the bat out of their hands.
    At that point in the game I would have made the steal a priority.
    Jeter swinging away made no sense.
    I question who runs this team at times.

  42. Jerkface April 28th, 2014 at 11:13 am

    Even after the HR Tex is hitting .217 .308 .348 .656 vs righties. I’d sign up for every hit, out, HR, rbi, defensive play from bad players or maligned ones to come in important situations.

  43. bbb51 April 28th, 2014 at 11:14 am

    86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 8:47 am
    Morning all !!

    To me the biggest thing about last night was the Teixeira HR from the left side. While I’ve called for him to become a full-time RH hitter, he shut me up (for now) with that blast off a 95 MPH fast ball.

    The criticism against Tex is that he can’t hit for average lefthanded, but he can still hit some homers. Power isn’t the problem from that side. That said, other guys got some cookies last night and didn’t do anything with them, Tex did, so he gets credit for that.

    People would like him to hit righthanded so he can hit for a better average/obp and he still has enough power from that side even in YS.

  44. luis April 28th, 2014 at 11:15 am

    Good morning still,

    JF,

    Good post on Tex…

    bigdan,

    2 things…Not going the route of converting Tex in a full time RHB, doesn’t mean it isn’t the right course of action.

    The other is Richards..His stuff is really sick…We have one with the same characteristics

    Later

  45. luis April 28th, 2014 at 11:17 am

    86,

    And better overall OPS, even if it means marginally less homers

  46. bbb51 April 28th, 2014 at 11:18 am

    mick April 28th, 2014 at 10:39 am
    Jay Z and Beyoncé announce summer tour. It does not hit Yankee Stadium, but does hit Safeco Field.
    ===========
    Coincidence?
    Turn in your Yankee cap JZ.

    Nothing to turn in, it was removed.

  47. mick April 28th, 2014 at 11:21 am

    If anything , the type of team that will beat the Yanks is one that executes and manufacturers runs.
    They got lucky last night with wild pitches and passed balls.
    They seem to have enough offense to get by don’t seem to be winning solely b/c of it.
    Situational hitting in the middle of the order still seems like a problem and I really think Joe would like to use the Ell/Gardy top of order but is afraid to move Jeter.
    I still would bat Jeter 3rd against leftys.
    The 2 of them would drive pitchers batty atop the order.
    Then Jeter could swing all he wants..

  48. mick April 28th, 2014 at 11:22 am

    We have one with the same characteristics
    ========
    Thanks for that daily reminder.

  49. Chip April 28th, 2014 at 11:24 am

    Jerkface April 28th, 2014 at 11:13 am

    Even after the HR Tex is hitting .217 .308 .348 .656 vs righties. I’d sign up for every hit, out, HR, rbi, defensive play from bad players or maligned ones to come in important situations.
    ————————

    Girardi’s point last night was that Tex was behind in spring training because of the wrist, he lost three weeks because of the hamstring and so what he’s seeing in terms of his swing is an encouraging sign that he might be getting on track and shaking off the rust.

  50. bbb51 April 28th, 2014 at 11:28 am

    (7) If Trout was on my team, he would bat Leadoff. The guy is Rickey Henderson, and lucky for us Rickey died on deck last night.

    Nah, Trout has less speed and more power. He’s gonna lose the speed in time too.

    He’s more like Mickey Mantle.

    Mick once said he would have stolen 40 bases (and gotten 40/40) if he had known it would be such a big deal.

  51. Jerkface April 28th, 2014 at 11:28 am

    Girardi’s point last night was that Tex was behind in spring training because of the wrist, he lost three weeks because of the hamstring and so what he’s seeing in terms of his swing is an encouraging sign that he might be getting on track and shaking off the rust.

    Yea sure, but shaking off the rust to what? His line vs RHP right now is basically his line against them the past 3 years but with less power. And the wrist injury will hurt his power.

  52. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 11:33 am

    I’m not abandoning my position on Tex switch-hitting versus going full-time RH….. just admitting that blast would shut me up — for now.

    He will probably remain a much better RH hitter for the duration, but he deserves a chance to re-gain his stroke as a LH hitter.

  53. 86w183 April 28th, 2014 at 11:46 am

    I gotta run… later folks!

  54. Hankflorida April 28th, 2014 at 1:19 pm

    They are more relying on Ellsbury’s bat than his speed to steal bases.
    They haven’t become a speed 1st team yet so HankFla should stop worrying.

    Mick, you are right as they have not yet become the Bronx Banjo’s but they have four starters who may not get ten homers and just drive in fifty runs based on their past performances, and if you add Johnson to the mix, he had sixteen homers but also just made it to fifty RBI’s. If we go by past stats, this team may end up scoring the same amount as last year which came to an average of four runs a game. It boils down to many close games, and the Yanks pitching has to pave the way to playing in October. It is a different scenario when we had “Murder’s Row with Cano” and mediocre starting pitching.

  55. David in Cal April 28th, 2014 at 6:33 pm

    I really want to believe in Solarte. I think he should play every day. Let’s get as much value as possible now. He might not be permitted to play after the league finds out what he took that made him so improved. :(

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