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Temptation vs. reality: Warren or Betances to the rotation?

Posted by: Chad Jennings - Posted in Misc on May 16, 2014 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Adam Warren

For obvious reasons — the team’s current needs; individuals’ early season performance — the idea of moving Dellin Betances and/or Adam Warren into the Yankees rotation is a popular topic of discussion. Those two have been terrific out of the bullpen, they were starters in the minors, and now the rotation is incredibly thin. The Yankees own decision makers often talk about giving young pitchers every chance to be starters before moving them into the bullpen. As a general rule, a good starter is more valuable than a good reliever.

So the conversation makes sense. I don’t necessarily agree with the idea, but I get why its tempting and why it might even work.

Three things that I think about:

Dellin Betances1. It’s especially hard for me to buy the Betances argument. I always argued against the idea of moving him to the pen — if he couldn’t throw strikes as a starter, why would he be able to as a reliever? — but the Yankees made the change last season, and the impact has been undeniable. He’d been erratic out of the rotation, and he became consistent out of the bullpen. No one has ever questioned his raw stuff, only his ability to use it reliably, and even Betances acknowledges that the bullpen move has positively affected his ability to throw strikes regularly. He was given year after year to figure it out as a starter — despite scouting reports often suggesting the bullpen might be his eventually landing spot — and now he’s 26 having finally found a way to be an impact pitcher at the big league level. Doesn’t mean he couldn’t carry this consistency back into the rotation, but he’s on pace to throw close to 100 innings out of the bullpen, and those are clearly going to be meaningful innings going forward. I find it hard to be convinced that this bullpen success was seamlessly carry over to the rotation. I agree that it might, but I don’t think it’s worth the risk of knocking Betances off track again. The Yankees took heat for yanking Joba Chamberlain back and forth, now they’re supposed to do the same with Betances?

2. Converting Warren makes more sense to me, but only with 20-20 hindsight. Out of spring training, the Yankees bullpen was a massive question mark. No one knew whether Betances was the real deal, whether Dave Robertson could handle the ninth inning, or whether Shawn Kelley could repeat last year’s breakout results. Going with a sort of “take the best and see what works” approach, the Yankees opened with three late-20s minor league starters in their bullpen. As it turned out, the Yankees had rotation injuries so early in the season, that David Phelps and Vidal Nuno were still roughly stretched out enough to step into the rotation without facing extreme pitch limits. Warren was kept in the rotation because, of the three, he’s the one who had most taken advantage of that “see what works” approach. So far, he simply works as a late-inning reliever. No question Warren’s early season results would be more valuable if they were coming as a starter and not a reliever, but did it really make sense for the Yankees to keep Phelps, Nuno and Warren stretched out while their bullpen was overloaded with uncertainty?  Getting Warren stretched out again right now would not only require trusting that he can carry this success into the rotation, it would also require losing him for several weeks while he builds innings in the minors.

3. Frustrating as it may be to see potential starters “wasted” in the bullpen, this is quite often the way relievers are made. The Cardinals are often cited as the model franchise these days, and their key late-inning relievers — Rosenthal, Martinez, Siegrist, Maness — are all in their mid-20s and all pitched (and generally pitched very well) as starters in the minor leagues. Look around the American League East, you’ll find the same thing: in Baltimore (Britton, Webb, Matusz); in Toronto (Delabar, Rogers, Cecil); in Tampa Bay (Jake McGee was a Top 50 prospect as a starter); and in Boston (Andrew Miller was the No. 6 overall pick who flamed out as a starter). Performance, need and opportunity all factor into these things. Doesn’t make it wrong to suggest a guy like Betances or Warren could be just as effective (and even more valuable) if he were moved back into the rotation, but I tend to think that situations like that are a pretty common. Every big league roster probably has a guy or two who might be more valuable in another role, but circumstance often sends them in a different direction.

Associated Press photos

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98 Responses to “Temptation vs. reality: Warren or Betances to the rotation?”

  1. blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:22 pm

    blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:21 pm
    “I think the Yankees are caught between trying to be patient and trying to win and they haven’t found that balance yet.”

    absolutely and it’s hard to find that balance. If you look at this past offseason…..all signs and symptoms pointed to it being time for the Yankees to rebuild and take a step back and try to regroup…..most every other team would have looked to trade Cano at the deadline last winter and then kept all those draft picks to try to get younger…….

    but the Yankees did do that…..they spent a fortune and gave away their best pick in years in addition to 2 more sandwich picks…….they had to win now……always win now……and that’s fine and dandy on the surface if you can you know…..actually win now. If you can win now I’m all for it…….if you just trying in vain though when the pieces aren’t there then it’s dumb and counterproductive.

    When the Yanks signed McCann this winter and lost their first pick they should have been 100% all in to win in 2014…….I feel like they were in but not all the way in because they left a lot of holes despite spending all that cash.

    You simply can’t give away all your draft picks and play to win every year and consistently have a good farm system these days…..

  2. blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    I don’t see Cliff Lee turning into CC……he’s basically already the type pitcher that CC needs to be for CC to be good again. Lee is a command machine…..he has a decent stuff but his calling card is top shelf command of his pitches. CC relied more on his stuff than we thought he did……

  3. Chip May 16th, 2014 at 4:27 pm

    Jerkface May 16th, 2014 at 3:51 pm

    Funnily enough Nunez is hitting .304 .360 .435 .795 for the Twins so far
    ———————

    in 23 at bats.

  4. G. Love May 16th, 2014 at 4:27 pm

    Chad,

    I’d hazard to say that Warren looks like a much better MLB pitcher in short relief than he ever did as a starter. More velocity and movement. He was never that impressive starting.

    It’s hard for some of us to understand why Betances is polarizing in being brought back to starting but guys like Warren and Whitley are okay with being moved back and forth.

    It seems like the best arm the team has had in a long time is being boxed in out of fear.

    I’d unleash the Kraken. You have more to gain by building a top of the rotation starter than a potential closer in today’s game.

    Either way, it’s delightful watching Betances pitch.

  5. G. Love May 16th, 2014 at 4:30 pm

    blake,

    The sheer amount of mismanagement that went with trying/planning to get the team under the cap for several years and then act surprised when real Yankee fans sniffed it out (and ratings/revenue declined) only to reverse course is mind boggling.

    It’s like saving money for years to have a down payment to buy a house only to get there and decide to blow it on a 3 year prepaid lease for a townhouse with a huge security deposit.

  6. Chip May 16th, 2014 at 4:31 pm

    Great post Chad – totally on board with everything you’re dishing up.

    At the time the Yankees made the call to take Warren, Nuno and Phelps north as relievers I didn’t think it made sense. I understand that the pen was a question mark, but Betances had dominated all spring. I would have taken one of Phelps or Warren, left the other with Nuno in Scranton and brought Cabral and one of the middle relievers like Daley, Herndon or Leroux.

  7. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:33 pm

    I think the bigger problem is they have no idea how to attain balance.

    They won’t trade valuable pieces (we talked about trading Grandy after his MVP season on here, we talked about trading Hughes, Cano, Joba, Gardner, Swish, Nova, etc.). They won’t go balls to the wall on IFAs because they’re risk averse. They still waste money and roster spots on guys that simply have very little value – after being burned on it several times!

    They aren’t learning anything.

  8. Jesus Bustero May 16th, 2014 at 4:33 pm

    I would capitalize on Robertson at the deadline if the plan is to groom Betances as a closer.

    Just like Granderson, Hughes, Joba, Cano and Swisher, they won’t get squat for Robertson. You could save nearly 10 million a year if you make Betances a closer and let Robertson walk and on top of it you could use that 10 million on a player plus you would get back a very nice prospect for dealing Robertson.

    The other path is no prospect, possible 10 million dollar overpay to Robertson and either wasting Betances in a setup role or putting him back in a rotation where he fails to deliver consistent mechanics every 5th day.

  9. blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:35 pm

    “The sheer amount of mismanagement that went with trying/planning to get the team under the cap for several years and then act surprised when real Yankee fans sniffed it out (and ratings/revenue declined) only to reverse course is mind boggling.”

    oh there is no question…..the Yankees can deny it or whatever but clearly 189 limited then from doing things over the last 3 or 4 years…….and that led to the decaying of the roster…..they got really old fast once the roster stopped being suppplemented with new talent. Then they tried to fix it in one offseason……hard to do that.

  10. Tar May 16th, 2014 at 4:36 pm

    Jason22

    Good post from the last thread, please re-post here.

    Shame

    My IPhone logs me off every time as well. For the sake of everybody on the blog that is probably a good thing!

  11. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:37 pm

    But even after all of their efforts with $189 and building a more efficient club, what they did this off season was exactly what they’ve always done: spend money.

    People can point to Cano as proof they learned some sort of lesson but that’s entirely debatable.

    At least they threw money at Tanaka though. I’m happy about that. So happy.

  12. blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:37 pm

    Shame,
    you’re right…..you can’t refuse to trade soon to be free agents and give away all your draft picks and then be surprised that you don’t have Manny Machado sitting over there ready to take over SS……

    It’s difficult because most all teams and fan bases accept that occasionally you have to take a step back to go forward again once you hit a dead end……the Yankees tend to keep ramming into the wall

  13. Chad Jennings May 16th, 2014 at 4:39 pm

    Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 3:22 pm e

    Don’t the media guys get these notes from the Yankees though? I’m not even kidding, I think they give them a lot of info sheets with random stuff like this. Someone get Chad in here.

    —-

    No, we don’t get anything like that. We get some notes, but that’s more statistical stuff — hitting streaks, upcoming milestones, that sort of thing — but the Yankees don’t put things like player options into the media guide or in their media notes. Quite often you’ll see me write that “I believe” a player it out of options, or something like that, to make it clear that I haven’t double checked with the front office and am basing my assumption on my own understanding of the rules. Each winter I tend to check with Cashman or someone else in the organization to make sure I have it right heading into the offseason. And last year, the Yankees were saying that Betances would be out of options.

    That said, I believe the Yankees knew Betances was almost certainly going to get a fourth option year — I never got the sense that they were caught off guard by the extra option year — it was just a process they had to go through. I’m not sure off the top of my head what the service time rules are for a fourth option year. It’s the kind of thing that’s nice to know well ahead of time strictly so we can all speculate and make roster predictions, but in reality it doesn’t actually come into play until after the facts are well known.

  14. G. Love May 16th, 2014 at 4:41 pm

    blake,

    I just hate when the fans are blamed for teams making poor moves. None of us put guns to the Yankees head. Sure, we vote with our dollars, but a well run team can take the $$$ hit short term for long term gain.

    I actually think the Red Sox winning the title last year was a bad thing since it appeared that all you had to do is fill holes with competent free agents to win a world series.

    While that is true to an extent, I don’t see what they did as some model of winning.

    Getting the Dodgers to absolve them of all their sins save Lackey is what enabled them to buy the replacements.

  15. Tar May 16th, 2014 at 4:44 pm

    “They aren’t learning anything.”

    They fixed the Kraken! :twisted:

    But then stuck him in the pen as a mop up guy. :mad:

    Yeah they can’t get anything right.

  16. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:47 pm

    Shame

    My IPhone logs me off every time as well. For the sake of everybody on the blog that is probably a good thing!

    —————-

    I WILL NOT BE SILENCED!!!

  17. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:48 pm

    Chad – Thanks for the info. That does make a lot of sense. I knew you guys got some sort of quick and dirty stat sheet but I wasn’t sure what was on it.

  18. Tar May 16th, 2014 at 4:49 pm

    Shame

    What was that about the Rays coach working with Dellin? Do you mind reposting the link.

  19. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 4:50 pm

    I read a lot of the posts this morning and afternoon and wanted to comment on a few things.

    The fact the Yankees were uninformed about Dellin’s service time, options, is something that should be an embarrassment to the organization, but the media will not hold them responsible, and that’s a shame.

    Now let’s refute some very basic facts…

    1. Dellin did not figure things out as soon as he went to the bp last year, he shortened his stride before he went to the bp, his last 3 starts were very encouraging.

    Those 3 starts were probably the first time since he was at Trenton in 2011, when he was dominant that he had put 3 successful outings in a row together.

    They meaning Brian Cashman said the move was because of his options running out after the season, and they needed to see him in the bp because of this as they did not have any more time to let him try and figure things out.

    2 Having him in the bp and eliminating some of his pitches have made him be able to concentrate better on throwing strikes.

    This is just a silly statement.

    When his mechanics were bad, that curveball we all saw last night, he was hitting 1 or 2 guys a game, especially right handed hitters with it.

    That 97 fastball, he was throwing it over the catchers head 3 or 4 times a game to the backstop.

    His mechanics did not allow for any of his pitches to be thrown for strikes consistently.

    With his stride shortened, that is no longer the case, he threw his change-up last year, it is a plus pitch, just like it fastball and spike curve, it has crazy movement.

    3.As a starter he would not be able to hold his stuff the entire game.

    To those who follow the minors this is an aggravating statement.

    In 2010 at Tampa and 2011 at Trenton, he dominated teams, he would sit 96 in the first inning, and sit 96 in the 6th inning.

    4. His walks…

    Nolan Ryan had an okay career walking hitters.

    Walks are never a great thing, but with some pitchers they are not as damaging ss with others.

    Dellin even with his shortened stride, is probably always going to walk guys a little more than anyone is comfortable with, but in the bp or as a starter if his mechanics hold, it will not damage him as much as others.

    The Yankees have another pitcher who walks more guys than we would like, he is their closer now, DRob seems to be able to deal with this problem okay.

    I agree with blake that they should not mess with him this year, Warren is the guy who could move in the rotation this year, and I think that is something they should strongly consider sooner than later.

    They have more bp arms coming, with Burawa, Pinder, Montgomery, and Ramirez, if I was the Yankees, I would when Kelley comes back send Warren down for 2 or 3 starts to stretch him out.

    The only way I do not do this is if suddenly Nuno turns it around and Phelps continues to do well and Whitley does what he did last night.

    I think Whitley might be a keeper, the other 2 I am not so confident in.

    Next off season they need to let Dellin know they are going to try him as starter in st, it is shortsighted not to try him there.

    One final thing, why does everyone want to let DRob go?

    He is a Yankee, sign him to a nice fair contract, if Dellin fails as a starter, you have 2 great bp arms.

  20. blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:50 pm

    “Getting the Dodgers to absolve them of all their sins save Lackey is what enabled them to buy the replacements.”

    Why can’t they bail us out

  21. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:51 pm

    I hope they did know about his service time despite Cash’s comments. But it kinda sucks that was their excuse for converting him in May 2013 or something. They could have at least waited until mid year.

  22. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:56 pm

    blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:50 pm
    “Getting the Dodgers to absolve them of all their sins save Lackey is what enabled them to buy the replacements.”

    Why can’t they bail us out

    ————

    People keep repeating this like Crawford and Agon haven’t been productive.. it’s simply not true. They took big contracts but they could – and those guys are producing. Beckett sucks and I never would have sent prospects in that deal if I were LA but they got the 1B they wanted, which I think was the point of the deal all along.

    And they did try to bail us out… they wanted CC and Tex, don’t forget. The Yankees denied them.

  23. Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:57 pm

    Everyone repeat that last line of my post to themselves a few times over…. see how you feel.

  24. Tar May 16th, 2014 at 5:00 pm

    Jason

    Thanks for the post. You have basically confirmed what 3 or 4 other posters who have watched him pitch over his minor league career have said.

    However I disagree about timing. IMO Due to injuries now is the perfect time to for him to start again.

  25. blake May 16th, 2014 at 5:00 pm

    “Next off season they need to let Dellin know they are going to try him as starter in st, it is shortsighted not to try him there.”

    I’m sure Texas thought the same thing with Feliz….eh lets try it….we can always put him back in the pen. It doesn’t always work so smoothly when you yo yo guys like that.

    I’m not gonna dismiss his changes as part of the reason he’s pitching better……but I don’t really think 3 starts is all that significant either with regards to evidence.

    Lets see how the rest of the year goes and discuss it again this winter.

  26. blake May 16th, 2014 at 5:06 pm

    As a group that bunch that LA got from Boston have produced nowhere close to what they are paid……nowhere close. Crawford has a 103 OPs + as a Dodger and Beckett has been useless. Agon has been good but he’s not been like a world beater or anything either for them…

    But regardless of how they have been for La…..they did bail Boston out because they took a ton of money off the books for them for players they didn’t even want

  27. Tar May 16th, 2014 at 5:08 pm

    One other thing about Betances.

    It seems like for ever since the Yankees have had a team built for the post-season. Cashman’s rosters have been all about simply making it to the post season.

    Having Tanaka as your Ace, and hoping for the best after him, is a recipe for disappointment.

    Now compare that with having two dominant starters, and Kuroda and possibly Pineda following. That’s a staff built for the post -season.

  28. Tar May 16th, 2014 at 5:10 pm

    And in Jeters last year that’s why you don’t wait till the off-season to have that conversation.

  29. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 5:12 pm

    Sorry, but 3 starts where he was not hitting guys and throwing balls over the catchers head, and his walks were not crazy bad, is something he had not done for that length of time in 2 years, so I would say, yes that means something.

    The reason I do not think you fool with him now, is I want Dellin to continue to dominate and then have an entire off season to prepare to start.

    If he struggles in ST, you just scrap the plan, and use him in the bp, his arm and the number of pitches that are plus are such,that they need to see if he can do it with his shortened stride.

    One more point on Dellin in the minors and his future in the majors.

    One of the unique things about him is that as a strike out guy, he is not a fly ball pitcher, he is really a ground ball machine, but because of his stuff he strikes out so many guys.

    His fastball movement makes for ground balls all the time, which even when he had his mechanics in check led to many issues when bad defense would not turn routine double plays and or errors in the minors.

  30. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 5:16 pm

    Oh and Blake about Feliz, a little tiny guy he is right?

    Dellin is a monster, completely different pitchers, and I don’t know as much on Feliz, but does he have 3 plus pitches ?

    No matter what the manager or reporters who never saw his change-up state, Dellin has 3 plus pitches.

    I would say his change-up was even better than his curve last year, as he does hang his curve more than you would like, but it freezes hitters so often that they take it most times.

  31. Jesus Bustero May 16th, 2014 at 5:24 pm

    I think if Betances becomes the next closer, his story is one of success considering how he was close to getting cut and survived numerous injuries and 8 years of coaching and development.

    For him to rise up and take over for Mo would be astounding.

    If you give me that guarantee (he’s the closer for the next 10 years) I’d be grateful as a fan.

    I love Tanaka as a future young ace and I still like Pineda as a #2. If Nova were still healthy and throwing like he’s capable, I don’t think this proposition (converting Betances back to a starter) would elicit such extreme views.

    I want him to be successful in his chosen role and if the Yankees choose reliever, I will not consider it failure. If they choose starter, I hope he proves them right.

    Either way, I want them to be right.

  32. tomingeorgia May 16th, 2014 at 5:39 pm

    Mister MTU,
    Going home soon?

  33. pete22 May 16th, 2014 at 5:48 pm

    blake May 16th, 2014 at 4:21 pm

    “absolutely and it’s hard to find that balance. If you look at this past offseason…..all signs and symptoms pointed to it being time for the Yankees to rebuild and take a step back and try to regroup…..most every other team would have looked to trade Cano at the deadline last winter and then kept all those draft picks to try to get younger…….

    but the Yankees did do that…..they spent a fortune and gave away their best pick in years in addition to 2 more sandwich picks…….they had to win now……always win now……and that’s fine and dandy on the surface if you can you know…..actually win now. If you can win now I’m all for it…….if you just trying in vain though when the pieces aren’t there then it’s dumb and counterproductive.

    When the Yanks signed McCann this winter and lost their first pick they should have been 100% all in to win in 2014…….I feel like they were in but not all the way in because they left a lot of holes despite spending all that cash.

    You simply can’t give away all your draft picks and play to win every year and consistently have a good farm system these days…..”
    ===========================
    blake, I think you overstate the value of these draft picks the Yankees gave up. MLB draft picks after the top 10 are a lottery, pure and simple, and until they fix the scouting and player development system, were unlikely to have changed much. Certainly not enough to have another losing season and lose far more than the 70 million revenue drop off they experienced last year.

    This is not to say losing draft picks should be taken lightly. For example, signing Drew and losing a 2nd round pick is better than signing whomever next year and losing a 1st round pick.

    The Yankees have the financial clout to field a competitive team every year, and I am thankful for that. Going over the spending restrictions in the IAF will help compensate for a few lost picks.

    You are right that they did not fully go in for this year. While they spent some cash, most of it was committed for future years, they actually cut payroll significantly this year. Hal recently said he would spend more if needed to get pitching. If so he should sign Drew and Morales and then trade them at the deadline (eating some salary) for pitching.

  34. blake May 16th, 2014 at 5:50 pm

    “blake, I think you overstate the value of these draft picks the Yankees gave up.”

    It’s really more about the principle……

  35. blake May 16th, 2014 at 5:52 pm

    Oh and Blake about Feliz, a little tiny guy he is right?

    Dellin is a monster, completely different pitchers, and I don’t know as much on Feliz, but does he have 3 plus pitches ?”

    If you call 6’3″ 225 tiny…..Feliz had incredible stuff too

  36. Jerkface May 16th, 2014 at 5:58 pm

    Feliz got hurt immediately upon entering the rotation again. TJS, bam, whammo. Took him out for almost all of last year as well as 2012. I think he is still trying to come back from it.

  37. Jerkface May 16th, 2014 at 6:00 pm

    I think the Rangers got c ocky with their conversion of CJ Wilson. They tried to do the same thing with Ogondo and Feliz and it didn’t work.

    I think transitioning older relievers to the rotation = ok.
    transitioning young guys = not ok.

  38. bigdan22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:01 pm

    “but did it really make sense for the Yankees to keep Phelps, Nuno and Warren stretched out while their bullpen was overloaded with uncertainty? ”

    No, what would have made a ton of sense would have been for them to do as I suggested at the time, keep either Phelps or Warren as a long reliever and send the other and Nuno to Scranton to continue to pitch as starters. Nuno at no point, now, in the past or in the future was, is or has ever been a relief pitcher and thinking that he could masquerade as one was just plain wrong-headed. He’s not even much of a starter right now without his command and control which strangely deserted him after he was lost in bullpen for the first couple weeks of the season.

    And what would have made the ultimate amount of sense would have been signing one real relief pitcher in the off season. The Yanks are now on the precipice of a complete disaster for the season due to a near collapse of their starting pitching. Proper bullpen construction when the season began may have saved them from their current situation. It may not have, but having Warren, Phelps and Nuno all prepared to step in as starters the last several weeks likely would have made this situation much less dire.

    You see it never was about the infield. It always was about the bullpen.

  39. Jerkface May 16th, 2014 at 6:04 pm

    He’s not even much of a starter right now without his command and control which strangely deserted him after he was lost in bullpen for the first couple weeks of the season.

    Well he did only pitch like 2 times in a month, so a guy who lives on command probably might lose his touch when he is seldom used. Thats why I don’t like the Yankees putting promising prospects on the bench and promising pitchers in the bullpen. They rarely get used in that role.

  40. pete22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:04 pm

    Just looking at the numbers

    Beckett 2.38 ERA in 7 starts this year. He had surgery last year and I believe insurance paid most of his salary since the red Sox had his contract insured and I assume the Dodgers picked up the policy.

    Crawford -725 OPS, 20 SB in 549 AB over 2 years

    Gonzalez 126 OPS+ over 2 years. Has 9 HR and 28 RBI to go along with a 830 OPS this year, so looks like his power might be back after being diminished due to a shoulder issue the last 2 years.

  41. Michelle B. of Yankee Stadium West May 16th, 2014 at 6:04 pm

    BTW- I don’t take credit for much around here, but I gave Yangveris the nickname Yan Solo. So, there, that’s that.

  42. bigdan22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:10 pm

    Honestly I may be pleasantly surprised, but with their current rotation I don’t see how this team can even play .500 ball.

  43. say NO to Cano May 16th, 2014 at 6:11 pm

    And they did try to bail us out… they wanted CC and Tex, don’t forget. The Yankees denied them.

    Shame, you’re shamefully making crap up.

  44. DONNYBROOK May 16th, 2014 at 6:14 pm

    - Big Dan -

    You can Mickey Mouse around with Any lefty. This obviously includes Nuno. The mixing and matching that is Now out of control allows this, even if for just 1 hitter.

  45. austinmac May 16th, 2014 at 6:15 pm

    Michelle,

    Henceforth I will use a copyright sign(if I could figure out how) when I use the name. The credit is deserved–especially with the Star Wars character expected return.

  46. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:18 pm

    Betances was close
    To getting cut??

    Lmao – you guys were begging for him to be DFA’d and were trading him every five minutes

    He was never “close
    To getting cut”
    ///

    Jason – absolutely correct – the chronic
    Infield butchery would
    Force him to get four and sometimes even five outs and the reason. It doesn’t apply to “every other pitcher”s” trials is because of the sheer number of groundballs Betances’ stuff
    Generates and because of how feeble even the grounders proved to be, guys like Pirela when at SS or the abysmal Lyerly or even Segedin (before he improved some) would have to come
    In on the ball and just. Oils not make those barehanded running plays.

    What I’ve mentioned also repeatedly after
    Attending these starts is that Dellin has such a deal of movement – sinking and cutting action on even his 4-seam fastball that umps
    Wouldn’t even realize the ball had danced in the strike zone and her would not get those calls. Even in starts where he would have a loss of control/high pitch count inning, he’d come back next inning and it was like a different pitcher, and he’d settle down and cruise the rest of the way.

    What isn’t fully grasped
    Among those who didn’t really chronicle his starts or watch them on Milb tv or
    Attend them is that in 2012, Betances had a lingering problem with the nail on his index finger from throwing his curve all out of the gate.
    It would not heal and would get messed up whenever he threw it and also messed up his other pitches.

    2012 was an absolute outlier year for him – they were the traveling nomad team and he had problems with the mound I remember up in Buffalo and was giving up line drives and flyballs and at the time I knew there was something dramatically awry that wasn’t a consequence of control problems, but something out of the ordinary.

    Tar it was Yankkefe
    Who posted
    Dellins tweet about PerLta having helped
    Him
    Down in the DR – not a
    Rays PC – and also some trainer.

    Also, WT2 I see found out that scouts
    Outside the org recommended the changes the Yankees made,
    Great info WT2!

    Jason – absolutely the pitch that would hurt him was when he couldn’t get the curve over sometimes – the high curve that wouldn’t break – thats the one that got hit out. I explained a few years
    Ago that he rarely got beat with his fastball and the folks here just dismissed him as another Brackman and decided to decide
    That in AAA his fastball was exposed.
    Nonsense of course because he has a rare fastball and always has. He
    Didn’t get the downward plane though when he first began. The short stride because the back leg wasn’t. Pliny over
    To finish the delivery – that took
    Time and now he has made it all a matter of muscle memory. None of this has anything to do with throwing less pitches nor excluding his change up.

    Finally, if we’re going to quote
    betances himself
    For what
    YF refers to as cognitive closure, let’s include his “I thought I was
    Beginning to figure things out AS A STARTER.” !

  47. bigdan22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:18 pm

    “You can Mickey Mouse around with Any lefty. This obviously includes Nuno. The mixing and matching that is Now out of control allows this, even if for just 1 hitter.”

    ——

    I’m sorry I’m not sure I understand you. I think you are saying the Yanks were planning on using Nuno as a LOOGY? I think that makes even less sense than Nuno in middle relief.

  48. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:20 pm

    I did not realize Feliz was that big, sorry about that blake…

    As JF points put though he was injured right away, and again I know he throws really hard, and has the slider I think, but not sure he has that 3rd plus pitch.

    I understand why Texas did it though even without a 3rd pitch, and who knows if he comes back as a starter or reliever.

    Dellin already had his tj surgery, and it was during his recovery from it that his change-up became such a good pitch, it would be such a shame to waste what was one of the best changes in the entire system.

  49. Jesus Bustero May 16th, 2014 at 6:22 pm

    I always wondered if the Yankees had just kept Joba in the pen after his magical first run. Would he have needed TJS?

    Could they have squeezed a career out of him as a closer?

    I wonder if the Yankees wonder the same thing and don’t want to repeat the same scenario with Dellin Betances.

  50. Hankflorida May 16th, 2014 at 6:25 pm

    Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:37 pm
    But even after all of their efforts with $189 and building a more efficient club, what they did this off season was exactly what they’ve always done: spend money.
    People can point to Cano as proof they learned some sort of lesson but that’s entirely debatable.
    At least they threw money at Tanaka though. I’m happy about that. So happy.

    This is a good discussion for us to have about Cashman’s plan for the Yankees and his desire to get under the cap. The idea was to concentrate on the pitching and to be less dependent on a home run hitting team that strains the pocket book. Building a more efficient club with banjo hitters and aging power players like Soriano and Beltran will only work if the pitching holds the line. During 2010 to 2012, the one dimensional team still scored over 850 runs and got to October in spite of the pitching woes. With the injuries to our starting staff and an outfield of Ellsbury, Gardner and Ichiro, who thinks that this team can average over five runs a game and get to October? To paraphrase the Clinton era, “It’s the pitching, stupid!

  51. Jerkface May 16th, 2014 at 6:28 pm

    Tommy John comes for all pitchers, the bullpen doesn’t save you. I think injury prone pitchers being shuffled to the bullpen is really just because losing a reliever is less painful than a starter.

  52. Jesus Bustero May 16th, 2014 at 6:29 pm

    Theoretically if it’s so flippin’ obvious Dellin Betances is destined to dominate as a starter, you would think at least one GM out there who does his homework recognizes it and would offer a nice return in a trade.

    I wouldn’t be opposed to selling high to that GM depending on the return.

    Maybe trade a pitcher for a bat, reverse of the Montero-Pineda deal but it would have to be a real position player not an imposter.

  53. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:32 pm

    Jason22 -

    Sitting out at
    What was then Waterfront Park, I overheard Nardii Contreras
    Correct someone who surmised
    That Banuelos had the best change in the system.

    To wit: “Best change
    In the system?? Dellin Betances has the best
    Change in the system.”

    I have seen at least a
    Handful of starts where
    It was his main weapon that night. Yet it was barelyentioned in scouting reports and I must say, as a
    Great
    Admirer of
    David Cone’s peerless pitching analysis,’I was
    Dismayed to hear him
    Say of Betances: ” he’s not that guy anymore
    Who just has a big fastball”! Having watched Betances turn hitters into wet pretzels with his knuckle
    Curve
    Since 2010, and watching him get Whiffs on his Changeup, I couldnt believe my ears. Ease
    Don’t mail it in Coney, you’re
    Way better than that and your audience does its research!

  54. tbone1570 May 16th, 2014 at 6:34 pm

    Shame Spencer May 16th, 2014 at 4:48 pm

    Chad – Thanks for the info. That does make a lot of sense. I knew you guys got some sort of quick and dirty stat sheet but I wasn’t sure what was on it.

    ************************************
    Hey Chad,

    The Media Notes make for some awesome pregame reading. Any chance you’d be able to recreate them in a pdf file and post them here for every game?

  55. bigdan22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:38 pm

    Since I’m convinced that Warren will remain the pen, and that there probably isn’t any realistic way for the Yanks to acquire a starter over the next month or so, the Yanks will have to use a formula similar to last night to win. Five innings from the starter and then piece it together with the bullpen. They’ll need more arms. Since Ramirez I believe is still on the 40 he might be the next one up. They got more than 2 innings from Betances last night. I don’t know if they are planning to use him that way going forward but that worries me a bit. Bullpen guys throwing over 100 innings don’t do well the following seasons.

    When Kelly comes back he’s the EIG. I think you’ll need three other quality multi-inning guys to get you there game in game out. Betances and Warren can be two. Need one more.

  56. Hankflorida May 16th, 2014 at 6:40 pm

    Alfred, after reading your analysis and realizing that this team was built around the starting pitching, the logic may be that both Betances and Warren will have to start in order for Kelley and Robertson to have a chance to save games. Having Nuno and Phelps pitching like Burnett and Freddie Garcia with this offensive team, will not even get us to the 2nd Wildcard.

  57. pete22 May 16th, 2014 at 6:42 pm

    Jerkface May 16th, 2014 at 5:58 pm

    Feliz got hurt immediately upon entering the rotation again. TJS, bam, whammo. Took him out for almost all of last year as well as 2012. I think he is still trying to come back from it.
    =====================

    One thing overlooked by most fans is that pitching in relief may take more of a toll on pitchers shoulders than starting because they throw harder and more frequently with less warm up time (albeit less IP)

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm.....MC3445183/

    However, starting may lead to more issues with the elbow, but TJ Surgery has a better prognosis than most shoulder surgeries

    Often times pitchers are converted to starter because they are having shoulder issues pitching out of the pen. Red Sox tried that with Bard after his disaster in Sep 2011 which we now know was due to TOS which he recently had surgery for. His failure as a starter was due to a physical issue and not because he was converted to starter.

    in Feliz case he had a history of shoulder issues out of the pen. Moved him to SP’er to protect the shoulder and of course his elbow gave out.

  58. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:42 pm

    That is a very inefficient formula
    For success,
    Especially for a naive GM who likes to mouth cliches like “pitching is the keys to the kingdom”.

  59. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:47 pm

    Hank – I don’t think Warren is a shutdown starting pitcher. I think he’s good for a couple turns through a lineup at best. I like his progress with his change and the fact that he’s been hitting the bottom of the zone at 95 and also featuring a riding inside fastball, but I don’t buy the fastball over six innings because the slider isn’t convincing enough.

    Betances is in another class: truly great breaking pitch, heavy fastball with downhill movement that just misses bats and gets whimsy contact

  60. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:50 pm

    Whimpy contact – although his ability to miss bats inspires whimsy in me ;)

  61. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:51 pm

    Pete22 – I am a little concerned about Betances throwing that curve so often. The change would break that up bit

  62. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 6:55 pm

    Hank – I appreciated your comp of Betances with Larsen. Discussed it with my good chum who’s 78 and remembers it well

  63. hardwired7 May 16th, 2014 at 6:58 pm

    Looking over Jeter’s career #s. Check out his ’99 slash line: .349/.438/.552. He’s played for so long that it’s easy to forget what a stud he was.

  64. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 7:02 pm

    JAP, a few things,

    I think Warren could be as good as a 3 starter, I think when comparing him to Phelps or a Nuno, he has more pitches, and the ability to get through a line up 3′times than they do.

    He was always a guy who did not wear down in the minors, and now his other pitches have improved, I actually think he could be a really good starting pitcher.

    I am not surprised Nardi said that, it’s just shocking that the media guys, and the damn manager have no clue about Dellin’s change! it’s like well he is not throwing it anymore, so it must mean it’s no good.

    It’s real simple, in the bp you want to keep it as simple as possible, and his curve can be so nasty that they told him to just use that along with his fastball, however his change is as good as his curve, it really is.

    I really think against left handed hitters, he should start using that change to keep them off his fastball, because sometimes it tails back over the inside of the plate, and that change would give those hitters another pitch to worry about.

    The only reason why I am against stretching him out now is, I want him to have an off season to get ready to be a dominant starter, let him help the Yankees this entire season in the pen, then have all the confidence in the world he can do what he wants against anyone, and use that going into next season, to be a great starting pitcher.

    Warren is an easier guy to move, I think he is ready, and will be a big improvement over Nuno.

    I think Nuno has a chance to be a better bp guy anyway.

    For the folks on here, watch out for Pinder in the minors, he or Burwawa are really close to helping the Yankees soon I think.

  65. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 7:05 pm

    Oh and on Cone, who I think is one of the best announcers out there, someone needs to inform him about Dellin’s change, he is very open to new info, we should let him know Nardi’s comment, or even get him to talk to Dellin sometime and ask him about his stuff and if Dellin wants to start.

  66. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 7:15 pm

    Jason – I agree Warren has improved
    But I am not sold on his slider and I don’t think the fastball is good enOugh to compensate despite
    The spike in velo.
    I like him in the pen fine, but of
    They convert him I hope yOur version of him is
    Closer
    To the reality than mine.
    Yep he used the change very effectively vs lefties (betances) ESP in 2010.

    Did you attend those
    Trenton starts or saw him in Tampa? Great posts today :)

  67. Jason22 May 16th, 2014 at 7:21 pm

    I saw Dellin in Trenton once in person then a bunch more online, they showed many home games online in 2011 and 12 and also a few of the road games were on Milb tv.

    On Warren, I think his secondary stuff has improved to the point, I used to think he could be a 4 or 5, but now think he could be as good as. 3 in a rotation.

    I think he is a stronger option than Phelps who is. 4 or 5 or Nuno.

    I read earlier in the year somewhere that Dellin was still throwing the change in the pen between outings, I hope they get him to start using it in games soon.

  68. J. Alfred Prufrock May 16th, 2014 at 7:24 pm

    Yeah Jason they said Rothschild wanted him to keep it current but infant see how youndonthT with a change when not using it in games. We’ve seen only sporadic few from him. I do worry about the curve causing health problems eventually.

    Second does need to enlighten Cone! :)

  69. say NO to Cano May 16th, 2014 at 7:30 pm

    Jason22. Great post.

  70. blake May 16th, 2014 at 7:50 pm

    hardwired7 says:
    May 16, 2014 at 6:58 pm
    Looking over Jeter’s career #s. Check out his ’99 slash line: .349/.438/.552. He’s played for so long that it’s easy to forget what a stud he was.

    He should have won 2 MVPs…..

  71. blake May 16th, 2014 at 7:52 pm

    I would classify Betances’s CU more as a pitch that flashes plus than a true plus pitch….there is a difference

  72. blake May 16th, 2014 at 7:53 pm

    I do agree he should keep throwing it though…..I don’t see why he needs to limit himself to 2 pitches……maybe he will expand once he gets more established

  73. Your Name Here May 17th, 2014 at 9:37 am

    Betances= Daniel Bard

    A pitcher with a live fastball with control issues in the minors as a starter. Dominant in the bullpen and fell to pieces in the rotation. Don’t make the same mistake.

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