With all things Masahiro Tanaka, it always seems to come back to something Joe Girardi said in late April when Tanaka’s forearm was strained and no one knew for sure whether it was a sign his elbow was about to go.
“Could be,” Girardi said. “It may not be.”
Is yesterday’s surgery to remove a bone spur further proof that Tanaka is damaged goods, bound to blow out at any moment?
“Could be. It may not be.”
Will next year be the year he finally delivers a full season, the kind of season the Yankees expected when they gave him a record international contract at seven years, $155 million?
“Could be. It may not be.”
How about any individual start; each time he’s on the mound? Is he going to deliver one of those gems we’ve seen from time to time?
“Could be. It may not be.”
To some extent, this is the reality of any high-end pitcher with any high-dollar contract. Each investment into a pitcher is a risk. Choosing the right one is part analysis, part scouting, part timing, and part luck.
Truth is, Tanaka has pitched well. His velocity was higher this year than last year, and his best starts with the Yankees have been legitimate ace-like performances. He hit a snag with a couple of bad starts in the middle of this season, but he rebounded nicely. Wasn’t perfect, but he was good. His ERA this year was better than Felix Hernandez, Cole Hamels and Garrett Richards. His WHIP was better than Dallas Keuchel, Madison Bumgarner and David Price.
He’s largely answered the performance questions that loomed on his way out of Japan. We know he’s good enough to be a high-end starter at this level. We’ll need more evidence to know for sure whether he can be a dependable ace, but we know the guy can pitch.
Or, I should say, we know he’s talented enough to pitch.
To find out just how good he can be, the Yankees need Tanaka to stay on the mound for more than 20 or 24 starts a year. He carried a heavy workload in Japan, but the Yankees have been forced to treat him like a piece of glass. They can’t be too rough with him, but there’s no way of knowing how rough is too rough.
Is pitching regularly on four days’ rest too rough? Is regularly throwing 110 pitches too rough? What about 120? Can the Yankees keep Tanaka on pace for 33 starts and more than 200 innings?
“Could be. It may not be.”
I don’t know whether yesterday’s surgery changes the Tanaka situation. Bone spur surgery can be perfectly routine. As an offseason procedure, it doesn’t have to be a very big deal.
With Tanaka, though, it’s just another chapter in the same old story. There’s a lot to like about him as a pitcher, but there’s a lot to be concerned about as well.
Is he going to be the ace the Yankees need next season?
Could be. It may not be.
Associated Press photos
Ten teams advanced to the postseason this year. The Yankees were the only one without a starting pitcher ranked top 30 in ERA.
Of baseball’s top 18 pitchers in ERA, only four — Sonny Gray, Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner and Shelby Miller — played for a team that didn’t advance. Gray was the only starter ranked top 10 who didn’t start a postseason game.
Pitching is the key to the kingdom. That’s the phrase Brian Cashman likes, and it seems to ring true this year. But what exactly does it mean? Does it mean truly elite pitching — a dominant No. 1 and No. 2 — is what makes a rotation great, or does it mean a deep rotation full of impact starters — without necessarily having a can’t-miss ace — is what makes a rotation stand out?
“That’s why we thought if we could get to postseason,” Mets manager Terry Collins said on Sunday, “we could match up with a lot of teams, everybody, because we have depth. Everybody’s got real good (pitching) — this is big league pitching, everybody’s got them — but we’ve got some talented guys.”
- The Pirates have Gerrit Cole. And he lost the wild card game.
- The Astros have Dallas Keuchel, traded for Scott Kazmir, and were the lowest seed to advance in the American League. They were knocked out of the playoffs even with Keuchel winning each of his postseason starts.
- The Rangers thought they were going to have Yu Darvish, lost him to Tommy John, traded for Cole Hamels, and lost in the division series.
- The Cardinals thought they were going to have Adam Wainwright, lost him in spring training, and still managed to win the most games in baseball without a starter most would peg as a dependable ace. John Lackey pitched like an ace, though, and still the Cardinals were eliminated when they won only one of Lackey’s two starts in the division series.
- The Dodgers have Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, arguably the best one-two punch in the game. They were knocked out in a five-game series with Kershaw and Greinke starting four of those games.
- If the Dodgers don’t have the best one-two punch, it might be the Cubs with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Of course, the Cubs are down 2-0 in the NLCS, with both Arrieta and Lester taking a loss.
- The Blue Jays made the biggest pitching acquisition of the season by trading for David Price, but they’re also behind in the League Championship Series. Price has mostly struggled in the postseason.
The two teams in the best position right now are the Royals, whose ace is the largely unpredictable Johnny Cueto, and the Mets, whose entire postseason rotation is young and still establishing itself.
“They don’t have the credentials that Kershaw and Greinke, and Lester and Arrieta have,” Collins said. “But they’re going to be good pitchers. They’re going to be really, really good, and we’re really proud of as fast as they’ve come and the way they’ve handled themselves this summer. But they’re going to (be good). We think we can stack up with anybody.”
What the Yankees’ rotation has right now is depth.
Counting Adam Warren, they’re returning no fewer than seven pitchers who could fit in the big league rotation. Three of them — Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino and Michael Pineda — have at times pitched like high-end, top-of-the-rotation starters. Another, Nathan Eovaldi, has a huge fastball and pitched to a 3.43 ERA in his last 14 starts this season (that’s a top-30 ERA if it holds up for a full year). CC Sabathia used to be a Cy Young winner, and bounced back in a big way late in the year. Warren has looked like at least a capable middle-of-the-rotation starter.
So what does the Yankees’ rotation need this year?
Two years ago, they invested heavily in Tanaka. Last winter, they traded for Eovaldi. This season, they called up Severino. Can they afford to invest in Price (and should they)? Is it worth putting Aaron Judge and others on the trade market for the best starting pitcher available? Should they make a smaller investment in another mid-rotation arm, or do they have enough depth and enough high-end potential as it is?
“Looking at Tanaka, I think he’s a top-of-the-line rotation pitcher,” Joe Girardi said. “Is he a 1? Is he a 2? I don’t know. But I think Sevy has a chance to be a top-line rotation (pitcher), and I think to me, the most important thing is that during the course of the season, we have five starters that can compete every day and give you a chance to win. That’s the most important thing. Really, to be safe, you better have six or seven.”
Associated Press photos
There were plenty of reasons the Yankees routinely inserted a sixth starter this season. They were worried about Michael Pineda’s shoulder, worried about CC Sabathia’s knee, worried about Adam Warren’s innings and worried about Ivan Nova’s return from Tommy John surgery.
And they desperately wanted to avoid Tommy John with Masahiro Tanaka.
Joe Girardi always made it clear that the sixth-start idea wasn’t all about Tanaka, but it was hard not to think of Tanaka as reason No. 1 that the Yankees would go out of their way to give starters extra rest. Now that Tanaka’s come through this season with his elbow intact, though, the Yankees might not be quite so cautious with their ace next season. It seems Tanaka using on normal rest won’t be quite the avoid-if-at-all-possible situation it was this season.
“There really wasn’t a difference (statistically) when he went on normal rest and had the extra day,” Girardi said. “We had some physical concerns going into the season, and I think we were trying to be proactive in that situation. But I thought he answered the bell pretty well going on normal rest.”
Using a sixth starter from time to time can disrupt the bullpen in the short-term, and in the bigger picture, it ultimately means taking innings away from the team’s best starter and giving them to what’s supposed to be their sixth best. There are plenty of practical reasons to stick with five starters on a steady rotation. It was a series of medical concerns that led the Yankees to try it in the first place.
Now that Pineda’s shoulder has survived the year, and Sabathia’s found a better knee brace, and Warren has been built up a little bit, the Yankees don’t have quite the same medical concerns going forward.
“I think inserting a sixth starter every once in a while is not a bad idea,” Girardi said. “But it becomes somewhat of an up-and-down shuttle when you don’t (go on normal rest) and sometimes you don’t necessarily want to send someone down who’s in your bullpen, so I think that’s something we have to address.”
Tanaka’s numbers on normal rest (2.56 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) were actually better than his numbers on five-days rest (3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP). The Yankees believe he’s capable of pitching every five days, and now they’re more confident that his elbow is up to the task.
“I think he answered that,” Girardi said. “And I think he showed that that was not an issue during the course of the season.”
Associated Press photo
A few pregame notes from Toronto:
• Nathan Eovaldi expected to play catch today, but that plan was scrapped based on his most recent medical evaluation. Meredith Marakovits reports that the Yankees are hoping Eovaldi can start a throwing program in a few days after another checkup. As it is, it seems unlikely the Yankees will get Eovaldi back in any capacity before the postseason. If he doesn’t pitch before the playoffs, how much will they trust him?
• Also from Meredith, the Yankees say Masahiro Tanaka is going through normal workouts in New York and is expected to make his next start. Apparently the Yankees are leaving open the possibility of Tanaka pitching even before his next turn, which would make sense in an effort to line him up for two more regular-season starts plus a possible wild card game.
• Lefties used to have no shot against David Price, but he had mild reverse splits last season, and he has more significant reverse splits this year. Not that lefties are crushing him — they’re hitting .268/.288/.369 — but they’ve fared better across the board than right handers. And tonight, Price will face just three righties. Steering away from his usual right-handed platoon players, Joe Girardi is using a lineup with six lefties, two switch hitters and one right-handed bat. From Greg Bird through Brett Gardner, Price will face five straight lefties.
• Chris Young had a horrible August, but he’s back to hitting .333/.421/.400 against lefties in the month of September. It’s rare that he gets a day off against a left-handed starter, but he’s had no success against Price. Young is a career .071/.133/.071 in 14 career at-bats against Price. That slash line includes one hit, one walk and five strikeouts. The three regular outfielders each have better numbers in larger sample sizes.
• Girardi started Dustin Ackley at second base despite the fact Brendan Ryan has actually had some past success against Price. Ryan’s a career .286/.286/.429 hitter in 14 at-bats against the Blue Jays ace. Ackley has hit .222/.300/.333 in nine at-bats against him.
• In his second turn back in the rotation, Adam Warren is cleared for 80-85 pitches.
• Blue Jays going with their standard non-Tulo lineup with Ryan Goins at shortstop and Cliff Pennington at second base.
Associated Press photo
Joe Girardi just announced his rotation for the upcoming Mets series, and it leaves Masahiro Tanaka lined up to potentially make four more regular-season start, but perhaps not start a wild card game. The rotation for this weekend:
Friday: Masahiro Tanaka
Saturday: Michael Pineda
Sunday: CC Sabathia
Count the wild card game, there seems to be no way to get more than four more starts out of Tanaka before the division series. He can either start four regular-season games (but not the wild card game), or he can start three regular-season games and be lined up for the wild card. Assuming the Yankees want to prioritize the upcoming Toronto series — Girardi didn’t commit to a rotation for those three games — these seem to have been the two options for Tanaka’s next five starts:
EVERY FIFTH DAY THE REST OF THE SEASON
Friday: at Mets
Next Wednesday: at Blue Jays
September 28: vs. Red Sox
October 3: at Orioles
ALDS Game 1: On normal rest if the Yankees advance
MONDAY IN TORONTO, THEN EVERY FIFTH DAY
Monday: at Blue Jays
September 26: vs. White Sox
October 1: vs. Red Sox
October 6: Wild card game on normal rest
ALDS Game 3: On normal rest if Yankees advance
Granted, by starting Tanaka on Friday, the Yankees are not committing to someone else in the wild card game. They could manipulate things along the way so that Tanaka pitches only once in the last 10 days and gets lined up for a potential must-win, wild card matchup. But whatever they do, there’s not time for Tanaka to make both four more regular-season starts and a wild-card start. He’d have to start the wild card game on two days rest, and that just seems unthinkable.
• The other big rotation news of the day is that Ivan Nova will work as a reliever for the time being. That suggests the Yankees are going to keep Adam Warren in a five-man rotation. I would think Nova becomes a long-relief alternative to Bryan Mitchell, who’s struggled ever since being hit in the face by that line drive in August.
• Asked specifically about Tanaka pitching Wednesday’s game against the Blue Jays, Girardi was non-committal and said, “We’ll have to see how he feels.” That said, if the Yankees are really taking Nova out of the rotation, they’re going to have little choice but to pitch Tanaka on Wednesday. If not, they’d have to give that start to someone like Nova, Mitchell or Chris Capuano. Are they really going to do that against Toronto?
• Assuming the Yankees stay on turn, Warren, Luis Severino and Tanaka would be lined up to start in Toronto next week.
• In his past five starts, Nova went 1-4 with an 8.74 ERA. Opponents hit .330/.396/.590 against him. In his nine starts before that, Nova was 5-4 with a 3.57 ERA and opponents were hitting .240/.311/.383.
• Tonight will be only Dustin Ackley’s second big league game at second base since 2013. It was his primary position before the Mariners acquired Robinson Cano, and he played it a few times during this minor league rehab assignment, but he’s been mostly an outfielder lately.
• The Yankees announced that next Saturday’s game against the White Sox will start at 4:05 p.m. at Yankee Stadium. That had been a TBA start time. In my opinion, 4 o’clock is the worst possible start time, but no one seems to ask for my input on these matters.
Associated Press photos
Pitching matchups in Atlanta • 08.28.15
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (9-6, 3.61)
RHP Williams Perez (4-4, 4.76)
7:35 p.m., YES Network
RHP Luis Severino (1-2, 2.74)
RHP Matt Wisler (5-4, 5.43)
7:10 p.m., FS1
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (13-2, 4.00)
RHP Julio Teheran (9-6, 4.29)
1:35 p.m., YES Network
Associated Press photo
Masahiro Tanaka has made 14 starts this season.
In the first seven — a sample that includes a disappointing opener and stretches both before and after his disabled list stint — Tanaka had a 2.49 ERA with 45 strikeouts, seven walks and four home runs in 43.1 innings.
In the last seven — a span that included three straight wins before tonight and that saw him initially bounce back from two particularly bad starts — Tanaka’s had a 5.08 ERA with 39 strikeouts, 11 walks and 11 home runs in 44.1 innings.
“Obviously it’s not what we want,” manager Joe Girardi said. “He’s had some really good games and he’s had some tough games. He kept us in the game tonight, we just didn’t do a lot offensively. That’s what we ask our starting pitchers to do, give us a chance to win, and I thought he did that tonight. We know he’s capable of pitching better.”
After from those back-to-back starts at the end June, Tanaka has rarely been terrible. He allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once in the month of July — that was tonight — and he’s pitched into the eighth inning in two of his past four starts, but he he hasn’t been anything close to dominant. He was pretty impressive right before the All-Star break, but he’s ultimately been hitable and beatable.
Velocity has been basically the same as last season, a little higher even, but the results have been uninspiring. Tonight his split, which is supposed to be his best pitch, was erratic. It was bounced in front of the plate or left up in the zone. According to Brooks Baseball, Tanaka threw 26 splits tonight and got five swing and misses.
“I apologize because I’m always giving you the same answer for this, but it always comes down to mechanics,” Tanaka said. “If my mechanics are there, the ball is coming out of my hand more efficiently. That inning when I gave up three runs, that actually had a lot to do with the split. I wasn’t getting that tight downfall that I wanted to. It got gradually better as the inning went on, but that third inning was kind of a dagger.”
Perhaps because of the language barrier, it’s always a bit difficult to get meaningful details from Tanaka postgame. His mechanics weren’t right, but there’s little description of how or why that’s the case. His split wasn’t sharp, but that much was pretty clear from the outside. Is he hurting? Is he compensating? What’s causing the difference in these past seven starts?
“Just being able to dictate the count and being in charge,” Brian McCann said. “Getting strike one. Staying a step ahead. Tonight, we fell behind.”
McCann talked a lot about trying to keep damage to a minimum, and Girardi talked about Tanaka still giving the Yankees a chance to win, but the Yankees consider Tanaka to be their ace, and those aren’t phrases often used when No. 1 starters have their good stuff. Tanaka hasn’t been at his best lately, and at this point, there are only two months left.
• He might be optioned for a fresh arm tomorrow, but Caleb Cotham had a pretty good big league debut. He let an inherited runner score, but only after Didi Gregorius botched a potential double play. All told, Cotham went 1.2 innings with two hits, no walks and four strikeouts.
• That Gregorius error, by the way, was his first since June 21.
• Carlos Beltran homered to give the Yankees an early lead in the second inning. It snapped a 16-game, 54-at-bat homerless streak. Six of his eight home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers.
• Stephen Drew has a hit in five straight games going 7-for-18 in that span. Tonight was his 14th multi-hit game of the year. … Chase Headley has a seven-game hitting streak. … Didi Gregorius has eight hits in his past three games and is 11-for-23 overall in his career against the Rangers.
• Tanaka’s three strikeouts were a season low while his three walks matched a season high. That’s not a great combo.
• Strong start for Rangers starter Colby Lewis, who has a 2.89 ERA in his past four starts. He’s had a quality start in nine of his past 10 outings. “I thought he made a lot of good pitches with his slider for strikes and then expanding in the zone and throwing it down and in to our left-handers,” Girardi said. “I thought he did a pretty good job with some back door ones as well. I thought Lewis threw a pretty good game.”
• The Yankees snapped a four-game winning streak. They need a win tomorrow to continue their streak of winning six straight series.
• Looking for something more positive about tonight? In Triple-A, Luis Severino delivered another gem with 10 strikeouts and one hit through six innings. Rob Refsnyder made two errors, but Refsnyder, Greg Bird, Ben Gamel, Gary Sanchez, Jose Pirela and Austin Romine each had two hits. Gamel and Bird each homered.
• Really, all of the postgame clubhouse was focused on Tanaka. This game didn’t offer much else for the Yankees. So, for our final word, here’s Girardi with one last comment on Tanaka’s outing: “He really struggled the whole time. Maybe his best inning was his last inning in the sixth, but it was a little bit of a struggle. I think he walked the leadoff hitter and fortunately he was able to pick him off. His command was not great tonight.”
Associated Press photos
First a reminder that we’re doing a chat today at noon. Stop by for a while and we’ll talk Rob Refsnyder’s demotion, CC Sabathia’s solid past two starts, and the Yankees’ approach to the trade deadline. It’s a way to kill some time before the Yankees begin what could be a pretty important three-game series against Baltimore.
The Orioles are four games behind the Yankees in the American League East, and they could be as dangerous as any team in the division if guys like Chris Tillman and J.J. Hardy rebound in the second half, and if the Orioles can find some more production from the outfield corners.
This is the Yankees’ first series against Baltimore since June 14, and these teams don’t play one another again until a pair of series in September.
“Any time you start playing teams in your division when the season’s winding down, all those games are big,” CC Sabathia said.
In the series opener and the series finale, the Yankees face the two lowest ERAs in the Orioles’ rotation. The Yankees have won each of their past four series, and just finished taking two of three against Seattle.
“Baltimore is a similar type of team,” Alex Rodriguez said. “They can it the ball out of the ballpark and they have good pitching.”
Here are the pitching matchups for this series.
RHP Nathan Eovaldi (9-2, 4.50)
LHP Wei-Yin Chen (4-5, 2.78)
7:05 p.m., WPIX and MLB Network
RHP Ivan Nova (1-3, 3.42)
RHP Kevin Gausman (1-1, 5.00)
7:05 p.m., YES Network and ESPN
RHP Masahiro Tanaka (6-3, 3.65)
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (7-5, 3.29)
1:05 p.m., YES Network and MLB Network
Associated Press photo
Even as he plays almost every day and provides one of the most consistent bats in baseball, Alex Rodriguez talks a lot these days about the value of taking some time off. A four-day All-Star break? There’s value in that. A few games off in National League parks? Keeps him fresh. Even a year long suspension, Rodriguez says, might have had its benefits.
“I don’t know if I needed (the All-Star break),” Rodriguez said after tonight’s game-winning homer. “I felt good coming off Boston, was swinging pretty well, but the rest has been good for me. It was very beneficial when I was serving my suspension. Maybe the four days (helped). So far so good.”
Playing for the first time since Sunday’s win at Fenway, the Yankees were sharp tonight. Masahiro Tanaka made a couple of mistakes to Kyle Seager, but otherwise delivered a strong start. Chris Young delivered two more extra-base hits against a lefty. The infield defense was good and steady.
Then there was Rodriguez, who went hitless in his first two at-bats before singling and scoring the tying run in the fifth inning, then hitting his 19th home run of the season in the seventh. Rodriguez has had a go-ahead RBI in each of the Yankees’ past four games.
“I think Joe (Girardi) deserves a lot of credit,” Rodriguez said. “He’s put me in a situation where I can help the team win. I think the DH job for me has been good because I’m able to prepare differently, and I feel comfortable. … It’s been huge for me, I’m really enjoying it, working hard at it. Every day, I’m just trying to continue with my routine.”
The decision to keep Rodriguez confined to designated hitter — especially in interleague games on the road — has been the source of much discussion, but Girardi seems sold on the idea that keeping Rodriguez out of the field is keeping his body fresh, and Rodriguez hasn’t argued. In fact, he’s gone out of his way multiple times this season to talk about the positive impact of the DH job and the way extra rest has helped him.
“I’ll have to pick some sporadic days off (for Rodriguez), especially as we get into some of the longer stretches,” Girardi said. “And I’ll do that. He held up great the first half, and I expect him to hold up well the second half and be productive.”
Rodriguez didn’t look rusty tonight. He looked rested and ready to push the Yankees division lead to 4.5 games.
“A guy like Al,” Chris Young said, “who’s been around the block a few times, been in every situation, been in the World Series, had a lot of success in a lot of different situations, where you’re able to slow the game down, (is able to) keep things in perspective and come through in big situations.”
• Carlos Beltran went 0-for-2 with a walk in tonight’s rehab game. Even if he catches a flight back to New York tomorrow morning, it’s unlikely he’ll be activated for Saturday’s game. Looks like he’ll return Sunday at the earliest. “I heard that he came out OK,” Girardi said. “I haven’t had a chance to talk about what we’re going to do. It would be pretty hard to put him in the lineup tomorrow.”
• For anyone thinking a trade is in the works because Ramon Flores and Austin Romine were pulled from tonight’s Triple-A game, Brian Cashman said Romine came out because of a thumb issue that was bothering him even before the All-Star break, and Flores was pulled because he was hit by a pitch, but Cashman wasn’t sure how serious it was.
• By the way, Aaron Judge played center field again in that Triple-A game.
• Speaking of minor league guys, I was told tonight that Slade Heathcott is close to playing in rehab games. Mason Williams said he spent all of the All-Star break in New York getting treatment on his shoulder. He’s still a long way from playing in games.
• Tanaka retired seven of his last eight batters after the second Seager home run. “The at-bats against Seager, they were just bad pitches that I threw and he got the most out of it,” Tanaka said. “But other than that, I felt pretty good out there. Pitches were coming out of my hand pretty good, and I was able to pitch the way I wanted to. … I think a lot of the offspeed (pitches) were going from strike to ball, and they were swinging at them, so I think they were pretty good. I want to try to replicate that in my next outing as well.”
• Because he’s a solid evaluator, here’s Rodriguez on Tanaka: “I think he’s just been more consistent lately. His fastball command’s better. I thought his splitfinger got better as the night went on. I think he’s doing a better job of damage control. And for us, especially at home, it’s such a weapon having Betances and Miller at the back of the bullpen, because we know in a tight game like today, one run may be the difference, and it was today.”
• Why pull Rob Refsnyder against a right-handed reliever late in the game? In a tight game, Girardi was trying for a Yankee Stadium home run. He also was pretty sure the Mariners were unprepared for a pinch hitter, but Seattle stalled long enough to get Vidal Nuno ready for a left-on-left at-bat against Garrett Jones. “I was trying to pick up a quick run with Garrett,” Girardi said. “I knew that Nuno wasn’t ready, but by the time they threw over twice and went to the mound and stood there, they got him ready.”
• Even though Refsnyder went hitless, Girardi seemed impressed again. He left Refsnyder in to play defense in a one-run game in the eighth. “He looked pretty relaxed to me,” Girardi said. “Some tough plays. Some really tough plays tonight, and he made them all. Between hops. Slow rollers. Go to your left. Turn a double play, try to turn a double play. There really wasn’t an easy play for him tonight.”
• Refsnyder on his first roll call: “It was pretty cool. You hear about it and stuff like that. Obviously it was the furthest thing from my mind today, but it was nice. It was nice to hear my last name pronounced correctly. It’s rare.”
• Young just keeps crushing lefties, bringing exactly the kind of right-handed balance the Yankees had in mind when they re-signed him. “I’m happy I’m just able to get the opportunity, that’s the main thing,” Young said. “To be able to get consistent at bats, have the opportunity to get out there, try to find a streak to get going,, and if you slow down, still get the opportunity to go out there and find my way out of it. Consistent at-bats has always been the biggest want for me, as a player, and Joe’s given me a lot of opportunities, so I’m grateful for that.”
• Dellin Betances has struck out multiple batters in each of his past eight appearances, matching his eight-game streak from earlier this season. … Andrew Miller is a perfect 19-for-19 in save opportunities, extending his franchise record for consecutive saves converted to start a Yankees tenure. … The Yankees have homered in 33 of 42 home games this season.
• Let’s give the final word to Tanaka, talking about his first seasons playing alongside A-Rod: “I think he knows really how to hit the ball. It seems like once the ball comes off his bat, it just kind of flies. Being in the outfield shagging before games, you can see how well he gets to that ball and lets that ball fly out, so it’s pretty impressive.”
Associated Press photos
This was my plan: Write a blog post about the fact that questions loom over basically every piece of the Yankees’ pitching staff.
After including five pitchers in my previous MVP post, there was really no sense in writing a first-half Cy Young post, so I thought looking at the looming uncertainty would be a good way to address the pitching staff. I came up with four categories and then found a way for most of the key pitchers to fit in one group or another.
But Michael Pineda, who I just picked as the most valuable pitcher on the staff, seemed to fit in every category.
• Health concerns? Obviously. He looks good and strong this season, but anyone who’s gone through three seasons of shoulder issues is going to carry some lingering health questions for a while. Those don’t go away with a healthy half season.
• The potential to be even better? Absolutely. Pineda’s been very good this season, but his 3.64 ERA is basically a full run higher than his 2.63 FIP. If he can string together his occasionally elite starts, he could be a real difference maker in the second half.
• Durability and sustainability concerns? Yep. Pineda could get better in the second half, or you could wither under the weight of his largest single-season workload. Pineda’s on pace to throw more innings than he’s ever thrown in a year, and he’s already thrown more innings than in any of his past three seasons.
• The potential to take on a larger role? Sure. Right now, it’s hard to say who truly leads this rotation. Is Pineda the ace or is Masahiro Tanaka the ace? Which one should get the ball in Game 1 of a playoff series? Pineda has a chance in the second half to take hold of that title and make himself the unquestioned No. 1 starter.
As for the rest of the staff, I’ll put the other key guys into these categories:
Obviously health is a concern for any pitcher, but that concern is especially magnified with Tanaka. We already know his elbow ligament was damaged last season, and he’s already missed a month this year because of a forearm strain and some soreness in his wrist. He’s pitched well, but his health is going to be a concern for a while. I’ll also put Miller in this category only because he’s already had one arm issue this season, and I think there’s always some concern that one arm issue could be a part of something more significant. There’s no real evidence that’s the case with Miller, I just think health is always a concern with someone who’s already coming back from an injury.
Two-fifths of the rotation fall into this category of needing to improve in the second half. Sabathia is the poster child for this issue. He’s been excellent against lefties, and has done a better job providing innings than most of his teammates, but Sabathia’s been awful against right-handed hitters — shockingly bad, actually — and his tendency to let outings get away has been well documented. As for Eovaldi, he gives up a ton of hits, but a lot of that has been relatively soft contact — opponents actually have a higher slugging percentage against Pineda — and he’s done a decent job of limiting damage. Needs to pitch deeper into games, though, and if he could put away a few more batters, that’d be nice, too.
Hard to have many complaints about what these four have done this season. Now the trick is to keep it going through the second half of the season. At this point, Betances is building a track record of this kind of success, but he’s still set the bar awfully high. Nova’s been good since returning from Tommy John, but coming back from surgery could leave him prone to inconsistency (and he was pretty inconsistent even before the injury). Warren has already pitched more innings than in either of the past two seasons, and Wilson’s trying to avoid a regression back to last year’s numbers. There’s little saying these guys can’t keep this pace, but the Yankees need them to actually do it.
Shreve might have already answered this question by stepping into the seventh inning role while Miller was hurt. He broke camp as basically the last guy in the bullpen, but now he’s pitched so well that the Yankees are clearly going to trust him with big outs from time to time. Mitchell really hasn’t had much opportunity to prove himself one way or another, but his arm is good enough to be curious about what he might do. For Capuano, the question is whether he can prove he’s good enough to keep around while Mitchell, Shreve and Warren are capable of multiple innings. I’ve also included two prospects who haven’t been called up yet, because their potential emergence — Severino especially — could make a difference down the stretch. To some extent, you could put guys like Nick Rumbelow, Branden Pinder and (if he gets healthy again) Jacob Lindgren into this group as well.
Associated Press photo